If there ever was a good year to have a Scorsese movie bumped from the Oscar race it’s this one. Most of our collective disappointment is about not seeing the movie this year. (No one really cares much that it will or won’t compete for the Oscars, except Leonardo DiCaprio fans but we’ll get to that in a minute). The race is already too crowded with contenders, both in the Best Picture and in the Best Actor categories. Add to that, several films are waiting in the wings — American Hustle, Foxcatcher, Her, Saving Mr. Banks, Walter Mitty. It’s possible none of these would make the same kind of massive impact any Scorsese movie would have made, as in the parting of the Red Sea where everyone gets out of its way.
The films in this year’s race have so far been somewhat melancholy, even films like Inside Llewyn Davis and Labor Day. There is sadness everywhere. Wolf of Wall Street would be very different from all that came before it but also it might be the right film at the wrong time. It might not get the attention it deserves because it doesn’t quite fit into the Oscar theme this year. No matter what happens the movie is going to make bank and with any luck be one of the best films Scorsese ever made.
But how is our Best Picture race shaping up otherwise? Nothing has really changed. 12 Years a Slave continues to be a frontrunner. Or the frontrunner. Now that it’s been put in that slot, Fox Searchlight will know what to do with it from here. Alexander Payne’s Nebraska has been kept mostly (smartly) quiet and now it’s beginning to pick up steam at exactly the right time. Payne’s Nebraska is the best film of his career. It wasn’t the critics’ darling out of Cannes or Telluride but it’s got the stuff — it’s just going to be a matter of making sure people see it. Inside Llewyn Davis is holding its spot well, as Coen brothers’ films do. Probably no other film I’ve seen this year has made my heart swell like that one. Greenwich Village in the early ’60s in the capable hands of Joel and Ethan Coen is a world I want to revisit again and again.
Gravity is set to open. Sandra Bullock is like George Clooney in that her charm and mere presence help publicize a film. This past week she was putting her hands in cement at the Mann’s Chinese theater. The Butler was number 4 at the box office this past weekend and has earned $107 million to date, making it, thus far, the Oscar race’s highest earner. Its box office will be beaten by Gravity. But with Wolf of Wall Street out of the race, The Butler could come into the Best Picture race the highest, or second highest, earner.
One of the year’s very best films, Paul Greegrass’ Captain Phillips is also set to open next month. Like Gravity and 12 Years a Slave its primary theme is staying alive no matter what. With a tremendous central performance by Tom Hanks and an equally brilliant supporting turn by Barkhad Abdi, this is one of the year’s standouts. Dallas Buyers Club is another film that will likely earn its share of number one votes to possibly crack Best Picture — once again anchored by a brilliant central performance from Matthew McConaughey with a memorable supporting turn by Jared Leto.
J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost continues to stay in the conversation as more people begin to see the kind of feat he and Robert Redford have pulled off with this contemplative, moving rumination on the will to survive.
One of the bigger surprises is Prisoners, which audiences and some critics all seem to love. It and Rush could be in for their wide audience appeal. To get into the Best Picture race they will need a significant number of voters to choose them as their number one or number two favorite film of the year. I could see that happening with both movies but I would put them in the alternate slots right now as we wait for other movies to be seen.
Fruitvale Station and Blue Jasmine are also in the alternate slots and could very well squeeze into the race but it will depend, again, on what the upcoming movies are like. If they are disappointing across the board, or if they get hit with controversy, these two more reliable favorites could squeeze in. If The Butler, Fruitvale Station and 12 Years a Slave are all Best Picture nominees it will be a year like no other. It will surely shut up people like me who have been bitching about the lack of black filmmakers in the race for as long as I’ve been blogging about the Oscars.
So, how would I rank them right now, leaving out the films that haven’t been seen?
1. 12 Years a Slave
2. Gravity
3. Captain Phillips
4. Nebraska
5. The Butler
6. Inside Llewyn Davis
7. Labor Day
8. Dallas Buyers Club
9. Fruitvale Station
10. All is Lost
11. Rush
12. Prisoners
13. Blue Jasmine
Sight unseen, if I had to carve out nine I thought might be in, please don’t ask me to do that yet.
Cheap Nizoral No Script Cheap Hct Pay Uss 5th Day On Levaquin [url=http://www.netvibes.com/buyamoxicillin ]Rashes Vs Amoxicillin[/url]. Renal Scan With Lisinopril Wash Online Prescription Viagra Fastin Meridia Adi Cheap Terol Pay Uss Zaditor Replacement . Diovan Hct Dose Atripla Viagra St John’s Wort . Can I Crush Lipitor Metoclopramide Mor Drug_uses [url=http://www.netvibes.com/adipexsale ]Adipex Can T Sleep[/url] Metronidazole For Human Beings Singulair Aggressive Behavior Children Pepcid Safe While Breastfeeding Nasal Sprays Ibuprofen For Injury
Going Here 20mg valium high dose – how much diazepam is valium
buy xanax online xanax zombie – xanax zanaflex
buy xanax online generic xanax what does it look like – xanax 6469
Discover More buy valium 5mg uk – valium used antidepressant
xanax 1mg order xanax overnight – xanax generic photos
http://novact.org/home/#16 buy tramadol online mastercard – buy tramadol hydrochloride
Clicking Here buy xanax online in uk – xanax dosage gad
read more… valium dosage before surgery – valium vs xanax pain
buy xanax online is xanax a class 3 drug – xanax bars juicy j
http://bedfordny.com/media/#20 buy valium online mexico – valium online usa
12 Years a Slave has it locked up … pretty much a done deal
Blue Jasmine is in. Back in 2011 pundits were weirdly reluctant to pencil in Midnight in Paris when it was resoundingly obvious it was a contender and the same thing’s happening with Jasmine. Strange.
In the case of “Midnight In Paris,” everyone enjoyed the film itself, the plot twist, and its overall charm, hence why it was nominated for Best Picture. In the case of “Blue Jasmine,” everyone is talking about Blanchett, full stop. Well, okay, maybe not full stop, Sally Hawkins and Andrew Dice Clay are getting some good notices as well, but it’s 95 percent Cate. If anything, the movie itself seems to be regarded as a middling Allen film that’s entirely carried by Blanchett’s amazing performance.
Cate is definitely getting nominated, the movie won’t be. And I’m hoping there’s room for Hawkins in the supporting actress race, since she was outstanding — I dunno who’d I’d pick between Hawkins and Octavia Spencer as my supporting actress choice right now.
Can I ask why AUGUST: OSAGE COUNTY is being completely written off as a contender for picture? Sure, it didn’t get stellar reviews at TIFF but I still think that cast plus that material multiplied by a Weinstein push gets them the votes they need to make it in to the big show. And I’d be pretty surprised if LABOR DAY made it in at this point.
Here’s how I see Picture shaping up:
• 12 Years A Slave
• Gravity
• Captain Phillips
• The Butler
• Inside Llewyn Davis
• Nebraska
• American Hustle
• The Wolf of Wall Street
• The Monuments Men
• August: Osage County
In the event that WOLF doesn’t make it by Christmas, swap that out for SAVING MR. BANKS. I’d like to believe that spot could be taken by something more interesting (ALL IS LOST, HER, FRUITVALE) but I really don’t trust AMPAS to do that. MONUMENTS MEN will make it in, I think, under the WAR HORSE/LES MIS precedent– purported winner that doesn’t match expectations, but still gets a little love based on profile/expectations. AMERICAN HUSTLE will likely shoot up as soon as it’s seen. I’d say the top 5 are pretty well locked, though. Finally, those who predict LLEWYN DAVIS to miss out do so at their own peril. If A SERIOUS MAN can make it into Picture, then so can DAVIS.
BLUE JASMINE could pick up some heat, but I don’t think it’ll ingratiate itself like MIDNIGHT IN PARIS did. And as much as I love ZOOLANDER and want MITTY to be great (it certainly looks promising) I can’t imagine a Ben Stiller film as a BP nominee.
John Wells. That’s why. That and the mixed reviews. Obviously, due to the expanded field, it still has a decent chance, but it’s definitely not a shoo-in.
I’m even hesitant to call Streep a shoo-in. Does the Academy really want to keep nominating an actress that they’re more than likely not going to award again?
Domestic dramas are a little passe too.
So which is it? Is Wolf going to 2014 or not? There’s varying reports all over the place, but Sasha seems pretty sure.
Why are you so sure, Sasha?
The picture race is starting to get interesting (it won’t have the chance to get boring again for a few months) and I have honestly no idea how anything could shake out in the end for the Best Picture lineup. Lots of possibilities.
What’s more certain in my mind is a nomination and, most probably, Oscar VICTORY for Kate ‘The Great’ Winslet (Finding Neverland, The Frighteners) for Best Actress in a Leading Role, for the role of Adele Wheeler in Labor Day.
In no order, my Foolish Early Prediction for the Best Pic:
1. Labor Day
2. 12 Years A Slave
3. Blue Jasmine
4. American Hustle
5. The Butler
6. Fruitvale Station
7. Monuments Men
8. Philomena
9. Inside Llewyn Davis
-Watermelons
Kate Winslet in The Frighteners? You’re thinking of Michael J Fox ( Class of 1984, Parkinson’s)
It’s a deep cut: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0116365/trivia?item=tr1195313
Of the movies already seen by the public at large, I think only four have any hope of a BP nomination:
— The Butler (though I sense a little slippage)
— Blue Jasmine (a long shot)
— Prisoners (a longer shot)
— Fruitvale Station (an even longer shot).
Ryan,
I (unenthusiastically) bought a ticket to “The Blind Side,” and I’ve been to tons of subtitled films. I question your $77 adjusted gross, but not your overall premise.
I have a feeling that this year will turn out like most with AMPAS voters. They will vote for the films that are in their most recent memory banks . . . meaning all the films released in summer and fall this year will all go by the wayside when the Thanksgiving-Christmas juggernaut of films arrive.
Which spells complete doom for “The Great Gatsby” and anyone associated with it. Shame. So far, TGG is my favorite film of the year . . . closely followed by “Blue Jasmine”. BJ has the best shot of a summer release film obtaining nominations. AMPAS just loves Woody’s films (especially the actors, directors and writers). I’m hoping Bobby Canavale will get in there with a BSA nomination. Maybe his recent Emmy triumph will give him an extra push?
BJ has the best shot of a summer release film obtaining nominations. AMPAS just loves Woody’s films.
Keifer, do you think that Blue Jasmine has a better shot at a BP nomination over Fruitvale Station only because it’s made by Woody Allen? You might be right, and I haven’t seen Blue Jasmine, but I thought in terms of Oscars, that Fruitvale Station was the summer’s best hope at a BP nomination, except for of course The Butler, which is huge so far.
i really don’t know what to believe at this point. Tom o’ Neil over at goldderby just got word that WOWS will be ready this year. and that the first cut was supposedly around 6 hrs, instead of the earlier reported 3 hr, or 3hr 40min version. http://www.goldderby.com/forum/topics/view/2997/page:5#post_228636
Well this sucks donkey balls. I’m not rooting for WOLF OF WALL STREET next year. 😛 I think it’s time for Leo to break up with Scorsese. It’s not doing him any good. And he needs to stop playing real people. That’s not working either.
My favorite this year is still MUD closely followed by BLUE JASMINE. I liked PRISONERS just fine and there was a lot to admire in it especially that gorgeous car speeding scene. So if it gets in I’m fine with it. But I haven’t seen any other contenders unless PLACE BEYOND THE PINES is still in there, which I wouldn’t mind either. But I expect to see some better stuff later.
Any word on OUT OF THE FURNACE? That trailer really packed a wallop.
I’m with you. I think that both Mud and The Place Beyond the Pines should be remembered at the end of the year. I’m hoping that at least 1 or 2 critics will include at least 1 of these in their end of the year top 10 list. Personally, between Mud and The Place Beyond the Pines, I prefer The Place Beyond the Pines.
But most Ironically (at least to myself), my favorite Movies of overall, that I’ve seen so far are Man of Steel, Star Trek Into Darkness, and especially my current #1 World War Z. I don’t have a truly Oscar worthy film in my top 3 yet. I’m expecting Gravity to be the first.
my favorite Movies of overall, that I’ve seen so far are Man of Steel
I can’t even.
Just a reminder of the months the last few BP winners have come out.
Argo – October
The Artist – November
The King’s Speech – November
The Hurt Locker – June
Slumdog Millionaire – November
No Country for Old Men – November
The Departed – October
Crash – May
Million Dollar Baby – December.
Seriously, the last time a December released film won Best Picture was all the way back to 2004 with Million Dollar Baby. BUT, hold up, I think this year will finally change this back to December. I just have a feeling that this year, a film released in December will win BP, whether it’s American Hustle, The Monuments Men, Inside Llewin Davis, August: Osage County, Foxcatcher, or (possibly) The Wolf of Wall Street. Sorry Gravity or 12 Years a Slave….
I just have a feeling that this year, a film released in December will win BP, whether it’s American Hustle, The Monuments Men, Inside Llewin Davis, August: Osage County, Foxcatcher, or (possibly) The Wolf of Wall Street. Sorry Gravity or 12 Years a Slave….
Several months ago, I felt that Monuments Men would be the winner, and I still feel the same way. It’s got a lot of things going for it, including an all-star cast and George Clooney as director & producer.
I am not sure if the Councelor is still in the running but I will definitely go see. Anything that Ridley Scott does is better than half of the industry. The guy is a legend. But, he probably will never win the Oscar. It’s too bad.
Just like Roger Deakins (DP for Peisoners). Probably the best cinematographer working today. 10 Oscar Nominations and not a single win – and they’ll give the cinematography to Gravity?! Huh? What?! Isn’t that all CGI anyway?! Like they actually filmed this in real space?! Come on, now. I’ll go see it but Gravity for Best Picture. Someone wake me up, please?! Are we back in 1977 and Star Wars actually won… I don’t think so…
You’re absolutely. Does CGI look so realistic nowadays that the older academy voters in that branch don’t realize that it is created on the computer and not with PHOTOGRAPHY.
Is The Counselor really still in the mix, it’s release date is practically upon us and it’s still not seen? It’s either ridiculously amazing and didn’t need to make it’s mark in the festivals since its brilliance is obvious to all (which I seriously doubt considering Ridley Scott’s recent record) or else it’s merely another release that will be forgotten by December.
Once again, I am literally shocked how low Prisoners sits on many people’s lists. Like I said, this film is insanely good. I haven’t been on the edge of my seat like this since No Country For Old Men.
It’s a brilliant movie and it’s so well disguised as this boring run of the mill thriller. But many people will choose to ignore.
In fact, I almost became one of those people. Watching the trailer, I didn’t care much about it. I am not much into horror flicks either. In fact, I was kind of waiting for October to arrive so that I can see 12 Years a Slave, Captain Philiips, Don Jon and Rush. Prisoners wasn’t even on my horizon.
But thus film just hooks your from the start and doesn’t let go. No wonder why it won 3rd place in Toronto and Gravity won nothing.
12 Years is to Lincoln what Film X is to Argo. What Film X actually will be – I am not so sure. I still have to see several movies before I make that call. But right now, Prisoners is up there. I agree that it is aix between Mystic River and Se7en – and in certain cases it feels even better.
But one has yo trust me and go see it. They can thank me later. I am kind of upset that Saaha hasn’t caught up on it. All this hype about 12 years is justified, but certain gems get lost along the way.
comparing Lincoln to 12 Years a Slave makes me cry
Man, that Kris Tapley must be clairvoyant. He was the first person to suggest Wolf might get delayed, and now lo and behold.
A:OC will be a huge hit. It will easily pass 100million…count on it. If box office and performances driven movie means anything it will
grab a
BP nod…
Prisoners is one hell of a movie. I did not expect the power grip that film had over me after it was over. Any time a drama can make me ask “what would I do?” Gets major props from me. It’s gonna get some oscar love. Too good to ignore.
For me, it looks like this :
MOST LIKELY TO WIN
1. Twelve Years a Slave (Early frontrunner therefore faces early peak syndrome)
2. Gravity (If BO doesn’t disappoint and the Academy ignores its scifilitis.)
MOST LIKELY TO MAKE THE CUT
3. Inside Llewyn Davis (It will need the Actors to make a dent.)
4. Nebraska (Ditto.)
5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler (Actors Branch + Oprah + Harvey)
6. Philomena (British crowdpleaser backed by Weinstein…rest my case.)
MOST LIKELY UNSEENS TO MAKE THE CUT
7. Saving Mr. Banks (We’ll know more after October 20.)
8. Foxcatcher (Miller’s track record is definitely enviable.)
MOST LIKELY TO RELY HEAVILY ON DOMINANT ACTORS BRANCH
9. August : Osage County (Meryl, Julia, George, Harvey. Oscar-friendly much ?)
10. Dallas Buyers Club (Another one that will appeal to the Actors.)
MOST LIKELY UNSEEN TO SURPRISE
11. Her (Potentially a masterpiece, but maybe too modern/quirky for Oscar voters.)
12. American Hustle (Sure, it could win…I’m just not feeling it…not yet anyway.)
13. The Monuments Men (Ditto.)
14. The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (We’ll know more after October 5.)
15. The Counselor (Ridley, Cormac, Michael, Brad, Javier…rest my case.)
16. Out of the Furnace (Late entry ? We’ll know more after Rome.)
MOST LIKELY TO NEED A DAMN STRONG CAMPAIGN
17. Captain Phillips (If Hanks makes the cut, the film will, too.)
18. Prisoners (Feels like Gone Baby Gone with better Box Office.)
19. Fruitvale Station (It can still come back from the fading buzz phase.)
20. Rush (Probably not the Academy’s cup of tea.)
21. Labor Day (IF the final critical consensus is strong(er)…)
22. Blue Jasmine (It has the reviews and BO and they do love Woody.)
MOST LIKELY TOO INDIE FOR THE ACADEMY
23. Before Midnight (Still a strong player in adapted screenplay.)
24. Mud (It has everything to pull a Winter’s Bone.)
25. Stories We Tell (If there were any justice…)
26. La vie d’Adèle (‘Controversial’ and ‘foreign language’ are rarely the Academy’s thing.)
27. Short Term 12 (Rave reviews will help. Early release date won’t.)
28. The Way, Way Back (Solid little indie hit. Probably nothing more.)
29. The Place Beyond the Pines (Ditto.)
30. The Invisible Woman (IF Sony Pictures Classics turns up the heat…)
Phantom
I totally disagree with you on ‘short term 12’ yes it had an early release date but its reviews are off the charts has a better rotten tomatoe 99/% rating than most of the movies on your list its metacritic rating of 85 is better than blue jasmine, prisoners, fruitvale station, the butler and most of the movies on this list. I mean I’ll give you the box office argument its only grossed $711,000 in limited release so far but its expanding into 200 theatres by the end of Nov according to the website. I have a question I’m new to this how big would its box office have to be to be considered a major best pic contender? I think ‘short term 12’ is this years ‘winter’s bone’
David, there have been a small handful of BP nominees in recent years that earned less that $10M before Oscar nominations were announced. But none that I know of that earned less than $6M
the closest parallel in terms of budget would be Beasts of the Southern Wild which earned a little over $11M
A Serious Man, An Education, Frost/Nixon — all earned less in the US than Beasts of the Southern Wild. But they all went on to the $30M range and more by the time post-nomination and foreign receipts were counted.
(FUN FACT: If you subtract all The Blind Side ticket-buyers who never saw a movie with subtitles and never will, the adjusted earnings for The Blind Side minus the subtitle-averse drops from $255 million to 77 dollars).
Look, no matter how you slice it, Short Term 12 is a long shot at best in the Best Picture race. It would have to pick up serious steam (unanimous love from critics groups and a succesful BO-expansion) to come even remotely close to a nomination. It doesn’t really have to make money, everybody knows it is a low-budget indie, but it does need mainstream buzz, something it seems to lack at the moment but could still pick up in the next few months.
Having said that, the film has a decent shot at two categories considering the screenplay has ‘Academy history’ (Nicholl fellowship winner therefore nominating it would be basically a pat on the Academy’s very own back) and since it rarely happens that there isn’t a first time nominee in Best Actress – and with Felicity Jones moving to supporting and Adèle Exarchopoulos being the lead of a controversial foreign language film (not exactly a winning combo when it comes to the Academy) – Brie Larson is the most likely breakthrough contender to make the cut.
Problem is both categories are extremely competitive this year. But hey, it’s still early, it is still part of the conversation…even if not a very big part. If it is still above water after the high-profile unseens hit, we’ll know more of what to expect !
Phantom
Thanks for the feedback I appreciate it it is unanimously loved by the critics we’ll see what happens
Nice breakdown with your rankings. I give you a lot of credit, because you clearly did your research. I just don’t know though if Captain Phillips, American Hustle, and The Monuments Men will end up (unofficially) that low on the list come time to vote.
I think that American Hustle and The Monuments Men especially will re-take their place in the mix when November/December rolls around. Currently everyone seems to be on either the 12 Years a Slave or Gravity bandwagon, but given the history of the Oscars, I don’t have any doubts that both AH and TMM will be there in the end. In fact, it wouldn’t surprise me if they end up the 2 front-runners.
Thanks, I don’t really know what to expect from American Hustle and The Monuments Men. On paper both have everything to go all the way, but I just don’t see either impressing so spectacularly. To be honest, both feel like obvious Oscar-baits rushed to make year-end release dates.
My reasoning behind ranking Captain Phillips so low is questionable, I admit but here it is : I think Captain Phillips NEEDS its Captain Phillips in Best Actor to register in BP and since Best Actor is ridiculously massive this year and the Academy can easily nominate Hanks elsewhere (supporting for Saving Mr. Banks), they will probably snub him in lead…and if that happens, I don’t see them going for the film in BP. Having said that, I could be underestimating Hanks’s popularity among voters so he could easily pull double duty in the end.
I can see that point about Captain Phillips needing Tom Hanks to be nominated for Best Lead Actor in order for it to have a better chance at getting a Best Picture nomination. I do think it’s kind of annoying how that is sometimes however. I wish people would look at the different categories completely separately. I think Tom Hanks has a good shot at a B.L.A. nomination.
I can also see what you’re saying about both American Hustle and The Monuments Men possibly being rushed out to soon, just to make it in time for Oscar consideration. I have no idea how long both films have been in production and post-production.
American Hustle started principal photograpy on March 8, 2013. The release date (December 13) was announced four days later, on March 12. Filming ended in May, it has been in post-production since.
The Monuments Men started principal photography on March 1 and completed in late June.
The release date (then December 20, now 18) was announced on December 7, four months before filming even started.
Taking into consideration the possibility that some directors, maybe even these two, do their best work under great pressure, I simply don’t believe that this kind of rushed environment could possibly create great art…that’s not to say it can’t create a Best Picture winner.
Since I didn’t share right away last week:
PRISONERS, thematically and tonally much closer to MYSTIC RIVER (★★★★ ½) than to Fincher’s thrillers (ZODIA and SE7EN, both of which are ★★★★★), but technically much more accomplished; the score is pitch-perfect for an understated thriller, and the cinematography is the best I’ve seen all year and Roger Deakin’s best work since REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. Best Part about it? Jake Gyllenhaal’s performance reveals, once again, he’s one of the foremost talents of his generation –much like his work in ZODIAC. Weakest link? Maria Bello; totally phoned it in, as far as you can get from her great turn in A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE. I’ve read some people complain it could have been 15 minutes shorter; my view is it needed another 10! A few key events felt rushed though not unexplained. People are such pussies when it comes to movie length this days. Indeed, I wouldn’t mind some Oscar love for PRISONERS. Rating: ★★★★
Finally seeing RUSH tonight <3
Is there truly no hope anymore for a WOLF OF WALL STREET Christmas release? No? Sigh…hey, whenever Marty is ready, just say the word.
I still think “short term 12” is a dark horse for a best picture nom rotten tomatoes 99% metacritic 85 the only think that would kill its chances is its box office, its only been released in 75 theatres so far, but over the next month its bein released into more theatres
give it up, David… as if Brie Larson wasn’t dark horse enough, you actually have the courage to even say the film is a possibility in the Best Picture race..
Mike
Give it up? Sorry but I’m not as far as dark horse Larson is a serious contender and yes it should be a contender for best pic based on the criteria everybody’s talking about. Your opinion doesn’t matter its what A.M.P.A.S think.
I think you have a problem with the meaning of should and would .. yes, both Brie Larson and the film SHOULD be nominated. but they WILL NOT get nominated! Give it up David. I love her performance better than all the actresses nominated last year, but I will have to say again that the competition is too tough.. Even with Nicole Kidman out, she still has 8 other people more likely to get nominated over her..
1. Cate Blanchett
2. Meryl Streep
3. Sandra Bullock
4. Judi Dench
5. Emma Thompson
6. Julia Roberts
7. Amy Adams
8. Kate Winslet
9. Adele, Blue is the Warmest Color
10 . Brie Larson
I lied, 9 people over her
Leonardo DiCaprio should get nominated for The Great Gatsby. His range of forehead expressions is mind-blowing.
Much agreed on that front.
Django had the Tarantino spaghetti western factor that helped people. Not to mention Christoph Waltz in the redeeming white man role. Also the protagonist was not a slave, he was free. Made things more digestible for mass consumption.
I don’t get it. People ranking Gravity so high. It’s not AVATAR for Christ’s sake. At most it’s similar to Apollo 13. Nothing more.
To me, 12 Years A Slave is the frontrunner, just like Lincoln was for a long time. The movie that shocked me the most was Prisoners.
Whoever hasn’t seen should RUN to the theatre. I was SO SKEPTICAL going in to see it. I didn’t want to see it It was one of those movies, goin in that you feel you’ll be dissappointed.
And oh, buy! Was I wrong. Prisoners is a MASTERPIECE! An absolute masterpiece. From the amazing acting to the great cinematography by Roger Deakins to the great story… I mean it’s the best movies I’ve seen all year.
I do think. however that 12 Years a Slave is probably a bit better. But Prisoners is definitely in the Top 5. It’s a sleeper but it has amazing reviews and hopefully more and more people will catch on to it…
It’s the BIGGEST surprise of the year.
Yet James Cameron himself calls Gravity “the best space film ever done”. Pardon me, but I’ll take his word over yours and still trust it will get a slew of nominations at the oscars. Can it beat TYAS? i doubt it, but it’ll be on its side in the main categories.
+1
Apollo 13, which won two Oscars and the DGA and was nominated for the Best Picture Oscar?
People currently rank Gravity so highly because it’s currently sitting at 96 on Metacritic (beneath only Inside Llewyn Davis in Oscar contenders so far this year) and because it has a decent shot at topping the US box office when it opens, foreseeably even for three weekends running.
It’s not Avatar? Thank God. Because that movie was horrifically bad. Embarrassingly cliched, terribly performed, and ineptly plotted. I don’t get mad when terrible movies make a ton of money, but I do get upset when they’re spoken of as though they’re classics. It’s a movie that will be remembered, but will anyone want to watch it 50 years from now?
I second this comment! I hated that movie. Like Titanic, it only proves that Cameron is a brilliant special effects director – and a hack writer. Apollo 13 holds up (IMO) as a great movie worth watching to this day.
Oh, please, let “Gravity” NOT be “Avatar”. It’s a decent start for it to be an at least watchable movie.
Sad to hear it’s moving, if that is the official decision. But I’d rather see a film completed at Marty and Thelma’s pace than one that is rushed.
And wait, I don’t see August: Osage County in your rankings. Do you think the film is dead for BP hopes?
A lot of films I’ve been looking forward to for months, are getting pushed back. Oh, well !
As for the biggest moneymakers in BP this year, I think Saving Mr. Banks, The Monuments Men and especially The Secret Life of Walter Mitty definitely have 100M+ potential, but all three have to pass critics first and sight unseen, none of them looks that strong in BD therefore even if any of them made the cut in BP, it would be considered a filler nominee .
Then I would consider August : Osage County for a strong BO-performance (100Mish) simply because of the sheer star power and the infamous Weinstein push…and speaking of the infamous Weinstein push if there is a dark horse for an unexpectedly spectacular BO-run, that is probably TWC’s British crowdpleaser of the season, Philomena . I also wouldn’t count out Dallas Buyers Club as a potentially big moneymaker, it has plenty of buzz, popular stars in likable roles and the kind of heartwarming/breaking true story feel to it audiences tend to respond to.
Sure, Gravity will be a big hit, what I am most interested in seeing is how Twelve years a slave will do at the BO. Will people respond to the Oscar buzz and rave reviews or will they be turned off by the violence ? Then again, taking a look at the Django-numbers, it would be weird if audiences suddenly decided to have a problem with violence…
It’s not that people have a problem with violence, it’s that if it’s Quentin Tarantino, Jamie Foxx and Leonardo DiCaprio, they don’t have a problem with it. If any audience does, it’s intelligent adult audiences – the kind of crowd to whom 12 Years a Slave will be directly appealing. But no, it probably won’t hurt it. 12 Years will probably do very well.
I’d be extremely shocked if August: Osage County made it to $100m.
Also, I’m not wholly sold on the notion that Gravity will overtake The Butler at the box office, but I expect it also to do well.
Clearly August is a long shot at 100M, but if you think about it, the Harvey-machine alone can turn these kind of character-driven dramedies into big hits (Silver Linings Playbook, The King’s Speech etc.), and this one can also rely on remarkable star power (Clooney, Streep and Roberts). It may not be a masterpiece, but word from TIFF was that people laughed and cried, and at the end of the day, the masses won’t want a masterpiece…they’ll just want to laugh and/or cry.
I’m starting to doubt Gravity a bit, too. I do believe it will open well (30M+) and deliver great numbers overseas (150M+), but I don’t know what kind of legs we can expect in the US. What if WOM isn’t as great as the reviews and word will get out that people think it’s ‘boring’…unfortunately I’ve heard a few saying that already. I LOVED it, so I hope most people will, too.
…and let’s just hope Twelve Years a Slave will do extremely well at the Box Office. I would hate to see a brave piece of great filmmaking not getting mainstream recognition (=Oscar) simply because people failed to come out in droves to support it.
TYAS will do just fine at the BO. It doesn’t need to be a huge success to get nominated (remember Hurt Locker?) but only to turn a profit. With a low $20 mil. budget, that shouldn’t be too hard. I expect its revenues could even double, if not triple, its production costs, if the festival buzz reaches film audiences
I get the feeling American Hustle will get pushed back too and release next year. The field is too crowded. I have a limited budget for movies and entertainment.
Oh BTW, OWN (Oprah) just bought the Butler for cable viewing.
Since I really loved Prisoners but still on the Davis bandwagon, my ranking would be a little different:
1. Inside Llewyn Davis
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. Prisoners
5. Dallas Buyers Club
6. Captain Phillips
7. Fruitvale Station
8. Blue Jasmine
9. Labor Day
10. Nebraska
11. Rush
12. The Butler
13. All Is Lost