Mark Harris and Tom O’Neil on the Oscar Race

Two of my favorite people in the whole world shoot the shit about Oscar season. Tom O’Neil runs Gold Derby and Mark Harris writes the Oscar column for Grantland.com, among other things.

12 Comments on this Post

  1. please, all these bloggers who do videos/podcast it is pronounced “O”-sage county, not awsauge.

    I wonder what Tom’s thoughts on it after seeing it at AFI. Sasha have you seen it yet? This will play well for the Academy acting and writing branch. It will be a BP nominee over Dallas Buyers Club, Nebraska, Philomena and Llewyn Davis for sure. I am attending a screening for guilds tomorrow night in Toluca Lake. Ill report back the buzz. What ending shot did they show at AFI? The same one from Toronto or the one from the play?

  2. I enjoyed their discussion FOR WHAT IS IS — a discussion hampered by the fact that there are major movies the critics haven’t seen yet, let alone audiences. It’s interesting; it’s fun; it’s WAY TOO EARLY.

  3. Joe Clinton

    As far as “August Osage County” goes, what came across to me from the trailer was echoed by a critic who has seen it already, that what played well theatrically translates on screen as loud, over-the-top scenery chewing. I found no wit or cinematic finesse in what is presented in the trailer. These impressions were confirmed by this writer who has seen it.
    It was nice to hear the analogy I made on this site a few days ago echoed by Mr. Harris; that 12YAS vs. Gravity is similar to Hurt Locker vs. Avatar. And I, for one, think 12YAS is better than all of them.

  4. I liked this, it was a great summary of how things are at the moment. It also made me realize that unless at least one unseen hits (probably The Wolf of Wall Street and/or American Hustle), the final two WILL be 12 years a slave and Gravity and if that happens there will be an interesting angle we should explore : neither will play well on screeners. Voters can just skip the rough parts of 12 (that is if they even opt to watch it during the Holiday season) and even if they opt for Gravity, that is one of those films that really needs to be seen in a movie theater. What gives Gravity the edge in this case is that it is the film probably most voters have already seen in a movie theater. Having said that, I’m expecting a ’12’ sweep, I don’t see Gravity winning simply because I don’t see it getting a script nod. I loved the film but the script wasn’t great.

    Also a few tidbits:

    1. I have a feeling the Adams team will get cold feet seeing the competition in lead and move her to supporting. The Blanchett-Bullock-Dench-Thompson-Streep quintet seems close to untouchable to me.

    2. I do think Dallas Buyers Club could have the kind of broad support enough for an acting victory (McConaughey and/or Leto) AND a Best Picture nomination. It has been doing rather well in limited release AND the critical consensus turned out to be unexpectedly spectacular (84 Metacritic, ALL reviews in the green zone), not to mention it could also possibly rely on the most dominant Actors Branch, the Actors…especially if they seriously consider it in 3 (!) acting categories…yes, I think Garner is a dark horse we should all watch out for.

    3. If the Academy REALLY wanted to give a second Oscar to Scorsese, they would have given it to him for the heartfelt cinematic treasure that is Hugo and was right up their alley, but if they couldn’t ignore someone like Hazanavicius in his favor, I don’t see how they could the likes of McQueen, Cuarón, Greengrass, Payne etc.

    4. I could see Oprah work her magic and win by a landslide but I still think Lupita Nyong’O will take it. She is bound to dominate the first phase (critics groups), that will give her momentum, if her film indeed ends up winning the big ones that will help too, not to mention the Academy may not be in a hurry to give an Oscar to Oprah considering they did indeed give her one very recently, even if just an honorary one.

  5. *most dominant ACADEMY branch

  6. Paulina Garcia has to win the Oscar Best Actress because she gives the best performance of the year in GLORIA. Bravo for her!!!

  7. Oh, what the hell, it’s mid-November after all, time for the first round of crazy/early predictions :

    BEST PICTURE – 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Brad Pitt, Dede Gardner, Steve McQueen)
    BEST DIRECTOR – 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Steve McQueen)
    BEST ACTRESS – PHILOMENA (Judi Dench)
    BEST ACTOR – 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Chiwetel Ejiofor)
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS – 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Lupita Nyong’O)
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR – DALLAS BUYERS CLUB (Jared Leto)
    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY – FRUITVALE STATION (Ryan Coogler)
    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY – 12 YEARS A SLAVE (John Ridley)
    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – SAVING MR. BANKS (Thomas Newman)
    BEST ORIGINAL SONG – FROZEN (For the First Time in Forever)
    BEST EDITING – 12 YEARS A SLAVE (Joe Walker)
    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY – GRAVITY (Emmanuel Lubezki)
    BEST COSTUME DESIGN – THE GREAT GATSBY
    BEST ART DIRECTION – THE GREAT GATSBY
    BEST SOUND – GRAVITY
    BEST SOUND EDITING – GRAVITY
    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS – GRAVITY
    BEST MAKEUP – 12 YEARS A SLAVE
    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE – FROZEN
    BEST DOCUMENTARY – THE ACT OF KILLING
    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM – LE PASSÉ

    P.S. Sure, American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street could spice things up, right now I don’t see more than a few nominations for each, but that could change if they start screening and word is spectacular. But that’s a big if. Also, I do believe Matthew McConaughey is a major threat for Ejiofor even if latter’s film is bound to dominate, and although I stick with my Leto-prediction, I must admit, giving Best Supporting Actor to Tom Hanks would be extremely convenient for the Academy : they could give him his third for his career-best year (and for portraying an iconic filmmaker) without giving him another lead Oscar.

  8. Joe Clinton

    I know it’s early, but I just feel that if “Wolf” or “Hustle” were outstanding, there would be some kind of buzz in the air. I admit I am a fan but I think the sheer greatness of 12YAS will carry it to the promised land. No one spoke about The Artist or Argo as a movie that would be admired and discussed for decades as I am hearing about 12YAS. Then again, Pulp Fiction lost to Forest Gump so…

  9. Hustle had the first six minutes of the movie screened at AFI and apparently even through several delays and technical issues, those six minutes were gangbusters.

    http://variety.com/2013/film/news/afi-fests-david-o-russell-tribute-offers-peek-at-american-hustle-1200813004/

  10. It’s interesting that the GoldDerby people are saying Gravity is the likeable movie that will stay under the radar and they’re totally ignoring The Butler. I personally don’t think it’s going to be one of those years, but if it were, I would choose The Butler like Sasha and Craig did over Gravity…

  11. Although I dislike early predix:
    Right now, I think it’s a coin toss between Matthew and Chiwetel. If i HAD to put money on it, I’m leaning towards Matthew.
    I haven’t seen “Saving Mr. Banks” yet, but I’m getting a hunch that it might sneak past both “Gravity” and “12YAS.” The best thing that could happen to “12YAS” is for “The Butler” to get snubbed — a distinct possibility. The best ting that could happen to “Gravity” is for Cuaron to get snubed — not very likely.

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