Check out David Poland’s latest Oscar column. It’s full of great pull quotes about this silly season. One of the reasons he’s able to see the bigger picture is that he, and his group of Gurus, turn in a top ten for Oscar – they are fairly close to how the Oscar Best Picture race turns out year after year, give or take a film or two. The same goes for the AFI and the PGA now that the race is down to more than five, closer to ten. At the end of the day, it’s isn’t that hard to suss out the films that are going to be in the race. This, because the way they vote on Best Picture now is that a film has to have a significant number of number one votes to get in. You have to find the handful of favorites. The danglers, the films that are pushing through in the 11th hour, will have to knock out one of the mainstays. American Hustle, for instance, had its place held in the top ten long before anyone say it. So its last minute buzz is really not about whether it will get nominated, but about whether it will win. Here are a few quotes from Poland’s column:
We just did our 7th Best Picture chart for Gurus o’ Gold and the thing that strikes me most powerfully, is that the movies that were in the Top Ten are still the same 10 movies that are there today and none of them have ever dropped out of the 10… and obviously, nothing new has broken in.
This is what I figure. I think that movie journalists, bless our hearts, have gone from keeping score on the pinball machine of the season to being under the glass… part of the game. Every time there is a noise, instead of just reporting it in the perspective of the hundreds of other sounds—and the biggest story, which is whether the ball is still in play—each noise is A GAME CHANGER.
All groups are now reading off the same small list of “legit contenders.” They have been for months and will be throughout the rest of the season. There will be—and have been—variations of which films and performances are chosen from that list. There is even the possibility of someone or something coming from completely off the small list.
Trends do start to happen. This is completely legit. But they don’t happen because of award nominations.
So stop, look at the movies, and don’t listen too much. You’re likely being sold a duck in a barrel… the very best one.
Gurus chart:
Stephen Holt – agreed. American Hustle is mediocre. Absolutely has no chance for a BP win. The studio is working really hard but with this material Russell will probably miss the Best Director nod.
American Hustle should not be mentioned in the same breath as 12 Years a Slave.
“American Hustle” SUCH a disappointment, it had me spitting nickels. Except for Jennifer Lawrence’s WONDERFUL, FUNNY dumb blonde, I wouldn’t have enjoyed it at all. She’s got something that the other three leads lack. Bale, Cooper and Adams. Adams is not very good in this. Perhaps her worst performance ever. SHE’S the mistress???And Jennifer Lawrence, 22, is the WIFE???
So there was that problem. It’s about nothing. Or not much of a muchness. I can’t BELIEVE the New York Film Critics had the reportedly debilitating and contentious voting that had AH winning over “12 Years A Slave.” By a HAIR. Same thing is said of Robert Redford v. Chiwetel Ejiafor and Jennifer Lawrence in Supporting v. Lupita Nyong’O.
And then the Golden Globs ad insult to injury by nominating “American Hustle” soooo many times (7) that it’s tied with “12 Years a Slave” which also has seven nominations.
At least the above Gurus Chart(of which I was one once…) have “12 Years a Slave” at the top. And so, reluctantly does Gold Derby. These charts give me hope…Oh, and the Screen Actors Guild, too.
Not surprised that right now the consensus of the Oscar bubble is a split. One thing to keep in mind though is that there hasn’t been back-to-back Picture/Director splits since 1948/1949, which coincided when the DGA used a non-calendar award year for the first 2 years of its award’s existence (this resulted in both its 1948 and 1949 honorees, Joseph Mankiewicz and Robert Rossen fighting it out for the Oscar in 1949). After that, the DGA shifted to the same calendar as AMPAS and there hasn’t been back-to-back BP/BD splits since.
Not saying that a back-to-back split is impossible. But I think this distinction is as important as the trend in which all BP winners since Rebecca have at least won 3 awards in total and at least one of director/screenplay/acting.
Gold Derby currently
SWEEPS
Gravity/Cuaron (5 pundits)
12 Years/McQueen (8 pundits)
Wolf of Wall Street/Scorsese (1 pundit)
Hustle/O Russell (1 pundit)
SPLITS
Hustle/Cuaron (2 pundits)
Mr Banks/Cuaron (1 pundit)
12 Years/Cuaron (9 pundits)
So the most pundits (9) have a 12 Years/Gravity split at the moment.
BP: 12YAS (17 pundits) vs Gravity (5 pundits)
Director: Cuaron (17 pundits) vs McQueen (8 pundits)
Personally I am surprised that there doesn’t seem to be much chatter about how 12 Years a Slave is the most common best picture pick at the moment yet Alfonso Cuaron is the most common best director pick at the moment.
More people are predicting a split of some sort at the moment, then they are picking Gravity/Cuaron or 12YAS/McQueen.
I’m okay with this year being boring and predictable as long as it ends with big wins for 12YAS. Nothing against American Hustle or Gravity in particular, but years from now, we’ll be looking back at a list of BP winners of the decade, and I’m not sure that anything viable other than 12YAS will be able to wash away the bad aftertaste of the previous three winners, whose plots can be summarized as “20th century history was tough, but this 40ish white guy transcended history and personal obstacles, put on a great show in the 3rd Act, and saved us from ourselves. Yay.”
Sasha, how would you explain your leaving off “Saving Mr. Banks” from the nine projected nominees (assuming there will be nine), as opposed to “The Butler” or “Her,” as represented in these charts? Just wondering your rationale on that, vis-a-vis Poland, the Gurus, and Goldderby generally. Obviously it’s a tough call, a gut thing, but wondering if you have more to say about it. (I haven’t seen SMB.)
I’m sorry. I know that GRAVITY and CAPTAIN PHILLIPS have a lot of fans around here, but I just want them to go away. I feel like they’re pretenders to the throne. For the most part I haven’t seen the rest of the list. So I either don’t know or don’t care. I swear, I’ve never had a year like this. I usually have 15 movies I love or like a lot by December. So weird especially since everyone else says it’s such an amazing year.
I also feel like this is the same list since the beginning for no reason except for maybe HER. Has anything changed at all since the season started? Anything fall away?