“The process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values, and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects; the process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved, merely because you cannot get agreement on the way ahead. What great cause would have been fought and won under the banner: ‘I stand for consensus?” Margaret Thatcher
In a year with so many good films, narrowing it down to just nine or ten seems impossible. For me it started all the way in May at Cannes, where we all sat in the Grand Lumiere awash in the thick silence of wrapped attention, the only sounds were the wind and the sea. It was a unique meditation on the metaphysical, something you never see in movies anymore. I waited in the rain for two hours just to sit up and on the side to catch the first screening of Inside Llewyn Davis. Alexander Payne, Bruce Dern and June Squibb brought Nebraska to Cannes — such a splendid portrait of the America the corporations forgot. Then, to be there in Telluride when 12 Years a Slave was first screened. Nobody knows anything and that first screening could have gone terribly wrong. But it moved everyone — some were moved to tears, others couldn’t bear it, some were moved by the sheer artistry of it. It would take a while for the whispering that it wasn’t a movie voters would like to seep through the collective. Back then, this was just the thrill of seeing something new, before the awards race got its greasy fingers on it.
I’d already heard the buzz out of Venice that Gravity was exceptional. Out there on the outskirts of Telluride, bundled up to stay out of the rain in the brand new Werner Herzog theater — what an experience to see Gravity and walk out feeling like you’d just climbed Everest. It would be a while before the whispers about this or that about accuracy, this or that about Sandra Bullock, would seep through. Lucky me, I got to see it before all of that happened, back when it was still a wonder.
And even now, watching The Wolf of Wall Street on a tiny screen at the Landmark with many bloggers and critics in attendance and walking out of it dazzled, dumbfounded and enthralled. Not ten minutes later the chatter in the party afterwards was whether “they” would like it, Academy members who apparently have traded their artistic courage in for a visit from Dr. Feelgood. “They” were going to be a problem for The Wolf of Wall Street and forever for great films everywhere. But were they the problem or were we? We’re so worried about whether it’s going to rain we can’t stop and enjoy the sunshine.
Now that we’re at the point where some last minute entries that bypassed the festival circuit are making a strong showing here in the 11th hour — American Hustle and The Wolf of Wall Street, we’re now coming close to our Best Picture consensus, the films most people can agree upon as being the best of the year. All of these contenders have their reasons for being here – they touch on a personal narrative many can relate to, they achieve such a high level of excellence overall they can’t be ignored, or they dare to go places none of us ever could and perhaps they drag us kicking and screaming along the way.
Inevitably films fall away for whatever reason. Sometimes they just can’t break through the stronger films — they like this movie a lot but not better than that movie. Sometimes they don’t even bother watching a movie they know is going to be a bummer. The question isn’t whether they will watch it or not, but whether they will vote for it without having watched it at all, simply based on what others have been saying about how good it is. I can’t get anyone to watch Blackfish, despite the urgency of the situation at Sea World right now — a predicament for intelligent whales only a consensus of protesters can fix. No one will watch it and thus, it isn’t really doing much in the documentary race.
JC Chandor took up the task of daring to make a film that is poetry on screen. It is something most of are uncomfortable with, especially now in the modern world where you can’t even fill up your gas tank without an advertisement blaring at you. Half the time, these ads play automatically when we visit a website. It’s then a panicky five minutes as you try to find the silence button – all the while an advertiser’s message is embedding itself in your brain to buy yet one more thing. In the great expanse of blue contrasted with Robert Redford’s sandy red hair, and in all of that silence where our great big watery sea is churning — there is a meditation on life, a study on the metaphysical. Chandor’s vision was helped along by Redford’s agreement to do the film. And yet, no one wants to watch a film about a man in a boat with no dialogue. Actors thrive on two things: their face and their dialogue. Most people have no problem with Scarlett Johansson’s vivid voice performance of Samantha in Her, but can’t seem to relate to Redford’s silent one, where only his face reveals what he’s going through.
In a better awards race, voters would not want to massage the same shaft again and again to same damned result each time — to find that movie that suits their sensibilities rather than expands the rules of cinema, even just a little bit. The only thing that can support a film like All is Lost is support from the awards community and yet…
That is one of the bummers of Awards2013, along with complaints that Saving Mr. Banks is sexist and Frozen isn’t politically correct enough. Sure, these things are worth discussing but how many years in a row are we going to throw the baby out with the bathwater because we forgot we were looking at art and instead feel involved in some political process?
The awards watching community, myself included, needs to calm the fuck down. These awards are shoved into the month of voting way too early now – the rush to judgment has people scrambling each time a name is left off the list – even the National Board of Review and the Golden Globes are being credited with leading the awards race the morning they’re announced. And it’s true, Oscar voters are just days from the beginning of their voting. Is it any wonder they usually end up sticking to those films that came out much earlier? The reliable horses rather than the loose canons? Who knows when one of them will crack open a Pandora’s box of politically correct hysteria.
There are so many good films this year that once you get through the top tier — Steve McQueen, Martin Scorsese, Alexander Payne, Joel and Ethan Coen, David O. Russell, Spike Jonze, Alfonso Cuaron, and Paul Greengrass. You also have newish directors like Jean-Marc Valle, John Lee Hancock and John Wells pushing through. There is Woody Allen, Jason Reitman, Richard Linklater, Stephen Frears — and brand new directors like Ryan Coogler, or Chandor. What to do when you have just nine slots for Best Picture and five slots for Best Director? You start weeding out by paying attention to the consensus.
The consensus builds as the season progresses and soon it can’t be messed with. It has snowballed into a definite shape, with very little to slow it down or alter it.
To my mind, the best indicator for Best Picture comes not from the Golden Globes, nor from the Screen Actors Guild, nor any of the major critics who have announced thus far but simply to the American Film Institute, who have provided a working blueprint of the Best Picture consensus, give or take a film or two.
The American Film Institute has listed the following:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street
But so far, Saving Mr. Banks seems to be missing necessary attention. Therefore, I am willing to bet that the consensus really is:
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
Inside Llewyn Davis
Her
The Wolf of Wall Street
The Butler
That’s nine, which is very likely the number we’ll see this year. Ten seems unlikely, math-wise, but you’ll have to ask Steve Pond to explain it.
That takes away:
Saving Mr. Banks
Fruitvale Station
For either of those to get in, they’d have to bump either The Butler or Wolf of Wall Street.
The SAG added support (which counts for more than the Golden Globes)
The Butler
Dallas Buyers Club
August: Osage County
The other film to watch out for is Philomena, which just earned Picture and Screenplay at the Globes. It is a crowd-pleaser that will very likely have its advocates in the Academy.
Your wild cards predictions would then be:
Philomena
Dallas Buyers Club
Fruitvale Station
Saving Mr. Banks
The Butler
I think The Butler gets in because of its SAG support, its box office and it being one of the two films by an African American director this year, and one that has made $115 million at the box office. But I really think any of the above could get in, especially Philomena.
Best Picture is decided not by the film most people agree is best – but by the film most people agree is good. To pick a consensus winner now you have to find one with the least amount of flaws. That’s a tall order in the world of art where perfection really has no place. If the artist seeks perfection, that is his or her cross to bear. But we who are lucky enough to enjoy these films have no business deciding best if that means finding the one with the least amount of flaws. A consensus in large numbers can’t really be built on the positives so it has to rely on the least amount of negatives.
Time really sorts it all out, however, and we here reporting on it are left to explain why things went down the way they did because in ten years no one is really going to understand it. They rarely do, unless the film being feted is unequivocal – like The Godfather films. Usually, though, your winners are a result of momentary fancy and contagious enthusiasm. Voters just need an incentive, a good Oscar story or to fall in love with a film that so transports them for a time they can’t see anything else, like Slumdog Millionaire or The Artist. Without that, movies can be dismissed as winners because of silly things like box office or the scandal du jour — trumped up outrage that serves as smoke and mirrors, temporarily taking it out of competition.
As a screenwriting teacher once told me, there are only two genres. Good movies and bad movies. You know them when you see them. As movies have become more sanitized to fit into the PG-mold, here comes Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, a hard R movie made by a master of the form at a time when most filmmakers have lost their touch. You hear awards chatter coming out of this morning’s announcements saying that the Golden Globe and SAG nominations were “bad for Th Wolf of Wall Street.” Well isn’t that just too bad for the Globes? Failing to recognize visionary filmmaking isn’t on the film. It’s on the people who vote for the films. It is their record we analyze years later to see if THEY got it right. We never stop to question whether the movie was good or not. We know it was.
Just at a time when tent poles have taken over Hollywood, where films are more and more delivering to us a fantasy world that costs millions, here comes All is Lost, with one man, a boat, and all of the human experience tangled up in it. At a time when most films are in 3D here comes Alexander Payne’s Nebraska — stark black and white, plain spoken and quirky — and again, the American dream defined, rendering us powerless against it. Life is compromise. At a time when almost every film is about a singular male experience along comes Gravity and puts a woman in there instead. The target demo has had a hard time adjusting to this. Women are there to mother, fuck, help or make fun of. But this woman’s own experience is what the film is actually about. At a time when we’ve sacrificed much of our time for this tiny electronic cyberworld, along comes Spike Jonze’s Her to remind us that what we humans can do best is be brave enough to love, in all of its sloppy imperfection. American Hustle takes us back to the 1970s, Inside Llewyn Davis took us to Greenwich Village before Dylan showed up. August: Osage County is an entire film about a dysfunctional family of cruel and domineering women.
And then there’s Steve McQueen — a filmmaker who marches to the beat of his own drum and certainly isn’t going to start kissing ass to win awards. He made a film that is maybe even not a film for the people to understand slavery, but it is wiping clean of Hollywood — and the Oscars — treatment of slavery, which has been shameful. The only movie to ever win Best Picture that had to do with slavery was Gone with the Wind in 1939. No black director has ever won an Oscar. Hell, only one black actress has ever won lead. Sooner or later Oscar voters, and the predominantly white male film critics are going to have to decide if they’re only going to support one kind of film — one that speaks to the white experience, the comfortable narrative. We live in multicultural country and yet, year after year, our film awards to one specific culture — give or take a Slumdog Millionaire or two.
I would trade any of the films I’ve been moved by this year for anything. None of them were easy to get made, marketing them even harder, and now, the awards race makes assholes of us all.
Predictions
Best Picture
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Nebraska
Inside Llewyn Davis
Her
The Wolf of Wall Street
The Butler
Alt: Philomena
Best Director — DGA
Steve McQueen
Alfonso Cuaron
David O. Russell
Paul Greengrass
Martin Scorsese
Alt. Joel and Ethan Coen
Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Forest Whitaker, The Butler
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Alt. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Judi Dench, Philomena
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alt: Daniel Bruhl, Rush, James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Alt. Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station
Original Screenplay
Eric Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle
Spike Jonze, Her
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson, Nebraska*
Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
Alt. Danny Strong, The Butler, Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said
Adapted Screenplay
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Terrence Winter, Wolf of Wall Street
Steve Coogan, Philomena
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
Alt. Jennifer Lee, Frozen
hello is there a problem with the site it seems there’s been no new post since january 3rd or any new comments what’s up?
Chris,
Speaking of June Squibb, I saw her on “The Millers” last night (love Margo M.). I looked up her bio (should have done it after “Nebraska”). I didn’t know she was 83. Very feisty.
er “things LIKE looking…”
I get what you’re saying, Steve. I don’t necessarily mean that the film has to leave the boat with flashbacks or a daydream. Maybe things looking at a photo and shedding a tear. (I think that would have helped Redford in terms of awards, too.)
More like ShamWOW, I think. It’s a huckter’s world, Azz.
And what you may ask happens if the film i like wins? for most of us a very rare event when putting at least the past 15 yrs of award ceremonies together combined? well i happy but i care more for the wellbeing and future of the art movements largest and most important cultural icon- the future of the academty awards – it seems to all of us doesnt it? awards season substitutes prestige and honor and respect to the eventual winner with political sabotage, smear, glitz and scandal…omg maybe it a case of oscar imitatting hollywood itself?! oh so that the disconnect that finally consistent..:P only to drift further and further away from public respect for a once respoected and publicly enthused awards season..awards season? baaaaah i can see through it all..and clearly some of you can too..why should we care if they dont care about us? this is why it will take more than one ‘win that i want’ every 5 yrs or so to convince me they emrbaced the future.
For this reason i am unashamedly backing Gravity to win this year…better late than never from oscar point of view…and well to be precise it been 35-40 yrs in the making or since 2001 a space oddysey graced our screens…way overdue recognition of the msot creative and engaging of film genres. If they the academy embrace that and then improve their structure of awars season make it consistent they will finally take that small step for all of us and a giant leap for themselves…Gravity is a symbol of oscar’s failings for decades on ends…not through the film itself noooo way but oscar’s contempt for a great film genre that been putting asses on seats:P for well we can say? almost half a century of films history no? regardless of science fiction or science fact this is the msot important awards season contender in a loooong time.
But soo much damage has been done in the glbal public eyes to oscars and awards season appeal and respect giant leap it may be it a mere stone drop in the ocean compared to the consistent atitude of change oscar must take in years to come::AFTER A sCIENCE_fICTION FACT MOVIE WELL THINK about it grAVITY actual event could happen out there if a mishap in space were to occur but there not been a documented case so far, so the story is fiction but it built around facts…this is the true nature of Cuaron’s achievement cinematically
But to go with the structural problems that are really against the public interest and the total lack of organisation and lack of consistency from one year tot he other, oscar themnselves after all the precursor awards in awards season have historically shirked away from the genre of film embracing that that they least like scinece based films inc science fiction which Gravity is only 50% or less…or science fiction, or fantasy..this is the only way embracing Gravity that this film will make the public just begin to tentatively care for getting a bit of respect back of awards season- but the road is long at least oscar start on the right track …regardless of what the precursors say…just go by the guilds unless they serve up trash which they can sometimes..
Antoinette thanks so much for being the only one to directly key into the heart of the concept behind both what i wrote and Sasha’s view. Your intelligence and charm once again graces our screens..via a net connection of course:P
But eveyone else the following demands your attention. Don’t you see it does not matter who wins or loses? the entire awards season as Antoinette says is a great big ‘logjam’ it all been politicized. Myabe only 2 films for each of us out of all the noms in best picture for comedy and drama at the globes that a representation of exactly just 10%!!! at the most of the pple that give film it life and it credibility not the critics but us!
Geez pple those of you going on about who wins or not who cares anymore? Here in Australia we are witnessing the total systemic collapse of our manufacturing car industry it a catastrophe- the pple and ceo’s ironically from the USa, settled to complacency. all they cared about was the bills and the self recognition they got at the expense of govt’s their no ,.1 client for purchase of car parts to be exported to iour country. But they failed in their duty of care to their clientel to educate and export technologies to ensure the car industry can survive for another hundred years.
The fact of the matter is this is what happens to ALL industry even those that have lasted for a hundred years like our caer industry in australia- YOU CANNOT BE COMPLACENT is my msg to ALL award ceremonies.
The Academy and awards season have thrived for closing to 75 years plus but that does not mean it will continue to unabated. Unless oscar and the entire awards season reavaluate their attitudes to the role of theiry TRUE clientel the moviegoing public..and let face it we know what works and what does not not what just appeals to uis but we educated enough to know if we put our critics hats on which to all your credit most of us do, what films are truly memorable and well made and which are not.
So i tell you why the fate of our car industry is a important lesson. What happened as a direct consequence of the american CEO’S complacency? well? first with respect upmost respect to anyone who writes on this forum who either themselves or has friends the car industry headquarters glbally of GENERAL MOTORS no less which produced australian cars, their complacency has been partly to blame or largely given detroit was sooo dependent and trustibng on that industry as their key economy, and what has general motors negligence of even local needs done? it was not just the financial turmoil still storming global markets and liquidaton en masse of companies cos of the financial crisis and recession of many years ago now, the buck lies with tjhe leadership those responsible for managing and coordinating and running businesses and general motors is no exception.
You may all think i crazy..but the academy and awards season if they keep bumbling the only thing that MAY save them is their choices for best pic overall seem to make sense but only they lack the core belief in their preexisting structure collectively and they do a rush hash job and this spells danger GLOBES AND ALL OF AWARDS SEASON is designed to treat the public with contempt . neglect our needs long enough when we the ones that prop up financially the movie industry much like taxpayers and car purchasers propr up a car industry uindermine the client make continuous errors of judgement and fail to read the tea leaves and you havea recipe for industrial extinction..this is the crisis that overshadows all of awards season – unlessw they stop their unecessary chopping and changing it a act of lunacy it iis a great way to demolish revenue they rely on from us for ratings..it a sham dont you think?
In other news, I saw American Hustle last night, and yep, its got the goods. Its not my favorite but its any easy entry into my top 5 this year. Bale is better than the lack of love he’s receiving, and Bradley Cooper ups his game to a level I didn’t expect from him in this movie. Amy Adams is indeed good, but a bit of a conundrum because the writing conceals so much about her. She does her best to try and illuminate the character, but the writing holds her back a bit in my opinion. Jennifer Lawrence is certainly entertaining, but nowhere close to the power of Nyongo’s performance. It would be a crime if she took the prize over Lupita. Hell, for a ball busting show stealing wife performance, I’d pick June Squibb over Lawrence this year. Not to knock her as she did a fine job actually, but I think its a slightly overrated performance.
Her is still the movie that hits me hardest, but I haven’t seen Wall Street yet, so….
^^ I’m only sort of kidding about this
Tony and steve50,
My read on All Is Lost is that Our Man is meant to represent Robert Redford himself. I like to think its Redford, “the last WASP”, out to pasture and left to his own wits out there on the open sea.
Reasonable defense, steve50. I barely glance at the other bloggers; thanks for reminding me why. I agree that she often gives a regular-person’s-eye-view on things – who can forget the swooning over meeting Redford earlier this year? – which is perhaps why this post felt atonal.
Going biographical (e.g. “well, when *I* first met…”) is a trick of writers who aren’t writing what they used to. Christopher Hitchens never did it. There were two different kinds of Gandolfini obituaries – ok, three. The first doesn’t really count, it’s just the USA Today version, he died, he was on the Sopranos, people loved him. The second was exemplified by Tim Goodman at the Hollywood Reporter (who’s normally better than this) – I knew Gandolfini, people didn’t know how funny he was, how generous, what a normal guy, he told me… etc. The third was harder (but it happened in this case) – it tries to put Gandolfini in context, to give reasons why his stardom led/reflected 21st century culture, to speak a bit like the opening and conclusion of the “Difficult Men” book. It’s ok for it to be personal when it doesn’t include knowing the man – it’s ok for it to say “He touched a part of me I didn’t know I had” or “When Gandolfini came on the screen you couldn’t take your eyes off of him” or whatever. Wesley Morris almost always writes this way at Grantland and that’s a reason he’s a Pulitzer winner and a great writer.
I prefer Sasha in that third mode, not the second. She’s usually in the third, that’s why I didn’t like the second popping up here.
All I can say about ALL IS LOST is that the filmmaking doesn’t look that great in the trailer (And no I’m not comparing it to GRAVITY, let’s say KNIFE IN THE WATER, or something). Nice score though. More when I get to see it!
jj, I haven’t seen The Butler so I can’t give my own opinion. Nor have I seen Fruitvale Station. But I know if 12 Years a Slave wins best picture it won’t be out of “white guilt” because the movie stands on it’s own. From what I’ve heard Fruitvale does too. But everything (well almost everything) I’ve read almost makes The Butler unworthy of any nominations, not that it’s bad but in such a crowded year with great performances, great technical duties and pictures in general, can anybody really justify putting anybody from The Butler ahead of other names? I need to see the movie for myself. Until now I’ll withhold judgement on The Butler gaining the “white guilt cred” because I’m hoping it’s better than good and an enjoyable watch.
Steve50, I generally like to know things about the character I’m investing my time with, as does Tony it appears. However I think you nailed it. “Do those details matter in the situation?” They don’t matter. Flashbacks take us away from the isolation. If Tony wants to believe he was a former CEO that could afford that boat then that’s his choice because I’m sure Chandor wants us to draw up our own conclusions. Or he DOESN’T want that at all. But again, it may not matter and that’s the point.
To honor the African-American made and themed 12 Years a Slave feels right.
To honor The Butler feels like some affirmative action bs. It was shit but no one wants to call it that because of the subject matter.
Sorry but I feel like there’s major white guilt playing into the buzz around The Butler. How about honoring the best, Period.
But, Tony, how much do those details matter in the situation? In the moment, which is the film’s POV, none of it. All that must be stripped away – it would be for you, me or anybody else in the same predicament.
I don’t believe we carry these trappings in moments where survival is at stake. They serve no purpose and don’t factor in to the struggle; nature takes over and, therefore, he becomes Everyman.
My problem with “All Is Lost” is that we learn almost nothing about the man. (He’s probably a retired CEO.) He’s not Everyman, because how many of us can afford that boat? Why is he alone on the boat in the middle of the ocean? Hubris? Stupidity? Both? Is he without friends and/or family? If he dies, whom will he miss? Who will miss him?
One is that we know festival audiences aren’t like other audiences – and Sasha is making it sound like the latter should try to be more like the former. That’s not fair to real audiences, and it’s not as populist as Sasha was. I have to say that I appreciate Sasha’s approach more and more each year. Unlike most of the insider bloggers, her approach is totally unpretentious – she is very much the eyes and ears of the rest of us who don’t have the opportunity to experience first hand the festivals, etc, and she manages to do it while remaining grounded. Her observations (to me, anyway) when she rubs shoulders with the elite are very objective. I think she conveys the experience in very much the same way as any of us would, always portraying herself as an – often lucky – observer of the machine and the people who make it work. I don’t think there is anyone else who handles it as well or as balanced in the blogosphere. To me, the “real audience” is whoever is watching a film no matter the circumstances. Most of us watch films with the same intensity whether we’re at home, at a festival, or sitting in a multiplex. Once the lights go down, we’re gone; we can spot visual poetry whether we’re sitting on the couch or wiping somebody else’s butter off our 3D glasses. Sure, I agree with Sasha that some venues are more desirable than others, but I never got the impression that she was crusading to elevate the populist experience. Regarding All is Lost and “turning-off mainstream audiences”, I’ve spoken to some in the mainstream who pass though my establishment and who love the film for precisely the very reasons you describe as a turn-off. These are meat ‘n potatoes folk who may go to one or two movies a year, and they love the approach taken in All is Lost. The real traditionalists, I’m afraid, come from our own circle of cinephiles who have hard and fast criteria as to what makes for a rewarding film experience. We’re the jaded ones, the “assholes”, if I’m to continue the reference made. Thought provoking post, unlikely hood!
Chances of Wolf of Wall Street being anything other than making up the numbers are slim for Oscar.
I’ll go with American Hustle for the win for BP and Cuaron for BD. Like last year.
Having seen The Wolf of Wall Street, I think DiCaprio is just too extraordinary to ignore. I suspect the five Best Actor nominees will be:
Bruce Dern
Leonardo DiCaprio
Robert Redford
Chiwetel Ejiofor
Matthew McConaughey
And Tom Hanks gets nominated in Best Supporting Actor.
There is really no excuse for DiCaprio not being nominated this year (particularly since he’s the best of the five, in my opinion).
Out on a limb early w/my Oscar predix in the Top 6 categories:
BP: American Hustle (12YAS, Gravity, Captain Phillips, Nebraska)
(6 thru 9: Her, Inside Llewyn Davis, WoWS, Blue Is the Warmest Color)
BD: Cuaron (McQueen, Russell, Greengrass, Payne)
BAr: Ejiofor (Dern, Hanks, McConaughey, Phoenix)
BAs: Blanchett (Bullock, Dench, Thompson, Streep)
BSAr: Leto (Fassbender, Cooper, Abdi, Bruhl)
BSAs: Nyong’o (JLaw, Squibb, Roberts, Oprah)
“None of them were easy to get made, marketing them even harder, and now, the awards race makes assholes of us all.”
This is extremely well said, and it’s true of no one more than me.
Trying to make “poetry on screen” and actually making it are two different things. The premise is poetry; the execution isn’t, unlike Gravity. I think there’s a good reason that Sasha’s friend Mark Harris categorizes All is Lost as an Underdog, but not as one of the Anti-traditional or Auteurist choices in his excellent piece today http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/10122207/the-golden-globes-academy-awards – it’s because All is Lost isn’t all that anti-traditional (I also like the ‘entire history of silent film’ comment above). I wonder what her screenwriting teacher, who she quotes, would have thought of it. It *could* have truly had the courage of its apparent convictions and been anti-narrative, anti-resolution – but it chose not to. The lack of dialogue/eventfulness turns off mainstream audiences; the comeuppance and the pat ending turns off a lot of what Harris calls the “Her” crowd. As neither fish nor fowl…All is Lost is a curio. I have watched Cast Away at least 10 times; I love it. Get back to me when anyone has chosen to watch All is Lost even 7 times, swear on your parents’ and kids’ lives that you’re telling the truth, I still won’t believe you, heh.
I hate to say it, cause I know it’s a no-win situation, but I preferred the Sasha from ten years ago who couldn’t start a post by discussing the four festivals where she got to see the year’s ten coolest films before the rest of us.
There’s two aspects to this. One is that we know festival audiences aren’t like other audiences – and Sasha is making it sound like the latter should try to be more like the former. That’s not fair to real audiences, and it’s not as populist as Sasha was. Of course when you’re there as a special guest, and someone who made the film is in the audience, jokes seem funnier, edits seem more clever; there’s a desire for everything to work out. Chris Gore has talked about this phenomenon (in his book); lots of people have. The first half of this post is like “Hey, it was all so magic then, now people are ruining it.” Well, yeah, but that magic was always gossamer, fragile, based on wishes and prayers, not on facing the rain that always comes. Gore and John Pierson and others have said it better…but this is known.
The other thing – I remember about 20 or 30 years ago Garry Trudeau (author of Doonesbury) saying “I don’t believe, as someone like George Will does, that you have to know these people to talk about them.” He meant that he could speak in Bush’s voice (or whoever) because that’s who they are to the public, it’s ok for us to judge them on their public persona. That WAS Sasha. But that’s becoming less true. It’s festivals now. But she’s getting exclusives with Bruce Dern, Jessica Chastain…pretty soon us plebeians will be the ones who don’t understand “poetry on screen.” Damn.
‘But were they the problem or were we? We’re so worried about whether it’s going to rain we can’t stop and enjoy the sunshine.’
The two most brilliant and insightful sentences written about the Oscar race and about those of us who purport to be be film lovers that I have read in a very long time.
Oh and on a side note–I can’t take anyone seriously if they use absolutes in their pronouncements (‘I am certain,’ “I’ve no doubt,” no question”…etc…). Your thoughts, predictions, hopes are just that. No one knows anything, really.
I will be cautious and stop calling 12 Years a Slave the winner. I’m starting to see that Argo smoke surrounding American Hustle.
I don’t have any problem with any of these contenders getting nommend – or winning, really. wonderful year.
A big call brandz, but one that i think is indeed a possibility. Judi or Cate.
Judi Dench will win the Oscar for Lead Actress, mark my words!
You finally got rid of Labor Day from your predictions! Thank you very much.
I actually think the predictions this time around are fairly accurate. Philomena is dangerous, true. I think you underestimate Dallas Buyers Club slightly, but…you know.
Where I disagree is supporting actor. I don’t think Cooper and Hill are in the top five as of right now. Maybe Cooper, but definitely not Hill. I think Leto and Fassbender are the only locks and Abdi and Brühl both got the vital GG and SAG noms, so they are third and fourth. That leaves one spot for either Cooper, Hill or…Gandolfini. And, frankly, I expect the latter to get a lot of sentimental votes (rightfully so, I may add), so he’s my favorite for the fifth spot. Cooper and Hill has the possibility to improve their standings, because their films still have the potential to impress at the box office etc., but for now they are just outside the final cut.
Christophe,
I know for a fact about someone who thanked Thatcher personally several times. Augusto Pinochet. Now, I don’t know what he thanked her for.
Been watching that Variety Actress roundtable in which Greta looks exactly like Rachael from BLADE RUNNER. Seriously go see it. Uncanny.
I side with Paddy, who would know, but even if we’re wrong, Christophe, I wasn’t exactly blaming Maggie for apartheid. I was just saying that her/Sasha’s idea that consensus sucks is entirely proven wrong by Mandela – looks like she picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue/bring out such a quote.
Thanks Bryce – you’ve had quite a few posts of the days yourself.
What’s all this “dashed hopes” talk? It’s just the GGs and SAG, the two loopiest groups. We’re at the point in the race where the real work begins.
Emma T was imitating an orangutan last night on Letterman while poor Oscar Isaac has been burning both ends of the candle making small talk with late nite and early morning show “personalities”. Blanchett and Fassbender obviously have better things to do, and McQueen – with his “ask-me-that-again-and-l’ll-pull-your-head-out-of-your-ass” glare – would obviously rather be doing anything else but the equivalent of selling encyclopedias.
It all comes into play. Will they vote for the best PR? Or choose the one who’s playing hard to get? How about the films that don’t make them feel good but that they know are worthy pieces of work? Will it be the one that made them laugh while gently scolding, or the films that held their feet to the fire? It appears that mindless fare wont be an option this year, so we can be thankful for that.
Who knows? It’s anything but over, though, so put the doom ‘n gloom away – it’s a long way until March.
Well, here’s the rub. You know that some of us just don’t get to see the films in time to talk them up or down. Year after year you see me here whining about how I don’t get to see the movies until votes are in. So how can we, the people, help at all? We can’t.
Now let’s think about our friends who get all the movies sent to their houses. We assume some of them are bastards because they don’t even watch the films and then vote with uninformed or uninterested opinions. But what if they just don’t have time? I mean it’s Christmastime. They could be making family plans, cooking, shopping, etc., when they’re not at work. Maybe they don’t have time to watch all the movies they should.
So then who gets to watch them all? Critics? Pundits? But do they even? If they do are they smart enough to know the difference between what will win and what should win? This is where the problem lies for me. The last few years, maybe going all the way back to when Oscar moved to February, there just hasn’t been enough time so Oscar goes home with Mr. Right Now instead of Mr. Right. But who can do anything about it in the yearly logjam that is now Oscar season?
So what ends up happening is the movie everyone heard is supposed to win wins. Maybe nobody likes it. But in the gigantic game of Oscar telephone, word got around that it’s supposed to. This is what I’ve been afraid of the last few years. I mean I do think it’s happened 3 years in a row. So maybe the best thing would be for those who have seen the films, (nudge nudge, wink wink), to stop playing telephone and start playing town crier. Instead of asking what’s the buzz and spreading it, determine for yourself what best picture is and then go tell it on the mountain.
Or your blog, whichever.
The only other option is for the movies to be released in ample time for voters, and coincidentally the public, to see them. But honestly, I don’t think they want that. I think there are those of them who know how to game the system and they’d rather go at it with a few familiar players than allow everyone in. Just like the two party system. They’re perfectly happy to compete with and maybe lose to the other power players with mediocre films as long as no one comes in with something brilliant out of left field and shows them up. Keep it in the family, so to speak. That’s how those of us who’d like to champion something extraordinary are often left waving our freak flags on some lonesome corner like an idiot.
And I’m not saying every brilliant piece of overlooked work is from an indie movie. I generally end up loving a performance or film that for whatever reason is not one of the year’s chosen big boys but was from a major studio. But it wasn’t being campaigned for. That’s not fair to most of the people working in Hollywood right now. But this is the way it’s trending. And it has everything to do with this mad dash of an Oscar race that is often over before it began.
My own example. I saw OUT OF THE FURNACE yesterday. I loved it. Had lots to say to people who’ve already pooh-poohed it. But nope. Too late. It was never really in the hunt anyway. Etc., etc.
I’ve read several times that even though her government did not publicly condemn apartheid in order not to severe its relationship with South Africa, she privately expressed her strong disapproval and asked repeteadly for Mandela to be freed, for which he was allegedly grateful and thanked her when they met shortly after he was freed.
Nah, don’t buy it.
Agree with wonderment of movies before it gets down and dirty in oscar race and critics. Feel same way about Banks and Book Thief. 2 films that I enjoyed that got unfairly savaged by critics because they had an agenda.
Luckily I got to see Hustle a couple of days ago before the real raves got in on MC and RT and it seems like my feelings about the movie are justified. Like it is really blowing it up on those critic sites.
And Vily, I would be shocked if any other film led the box office in PTA (per theater average) other then American Hustle. It just got 2 SAG noms and 7 (SEVEN!) Globe nods on it’s OW on top of the hype it already had….perfect storm brewing…..
I watch THE QUEEN every year!
@unlikely hood
I’ve read several times that even though her government did not publicly condemn apartheid in order not to severe its relationship with South Africa, she privately expressed her strong disapproval and asked repeteadly for Mandela to be freed, for which he was allegedly grateful and thanked her when they met shortly after he was freed.
As for the Queen, she made clear from the very beginning that South Africa was not welcome in her Commonwealth if it were to uphold such a backward system, and it’s important to remember that Afrikaners, who established the Apartheid regime are mostly of Dutch descent and culture, so the modern Apartheid in SFA was NOT a creation of the British Empire!
Great quotes from Wolverine and Thatcher, unlikely hood! (I have as frontrunner for Post of the Day!)
“The process of abandoning all beliefs, principles, values, and policies in search of something in which no one believes, but to which no one objects; the process of avoiding the very issues that have to be solved, merely because you cannot get agreement on the way ahead. What great cause would have been fought and won under the banner: ‘I stand for consensus?” Margaret Thatcher
Hey Maggie: try the enfranchisement of 23 million blacks in South Africa, under a banner Mandela proudly flew from 1990 to 1994.
Oh but I guess the representatives of disenfranchised MAJORITIES – like the ones in Ireland – always get labeled “terrorists” by you. Or as Wolverine said to Captain America in Secret Wars #2 – “Terrorists! That’s what the big army calls the little army.”
Dumb quote. Consensus can rock. This site didn’t complain in 2007 when it was a COENsensus.
Christophe, I agree. We don’t know anything, but have the utmost fun trying to pre-empt and predict the ‘luvvies’ and ‘moguls’ and ‘fat cats’ and their likes. Ironically one of the gifts of connecting to Sasha and Ryan’s site over the years has been the realisation for myself that the more i know, the less I actually know, if you know what i mean! I catch myself occasionally saying ‘oh that is Oscar material for sure’ only to find it is not. It simply is never over until the proverbial ‘fat lady’ or ‘big wig’ or Hoffman/Nicholson/Eastwood (insert any considered living legend) says ‘And the Oscar goes to…..’
As usual, nominations come and go, each voting body brings to the table its own set of “surprises” and “snubs”. In the end, the Academy will validate some choices, contradict others, and maybe even add a couple unexpected choices… But what I feel most strongly about is that THE ACADEMY DOES WHAT THE ACADEMY WANTS.
Paying little attention to patterns and stats, voters do not consciously follow any set of rules or precursors, but defying the odds, most of them choose with their hearts and minds (even I find this sentence doubtful but never mind), and as such it doesn’t make much sense pondering endlessly, except for the sheer pleasure of it, predicting and discussing all night long, only to see all our hopes and best-laid theories shattered in less than 5 minutes on a cold and lonely January morning…
See Globes didn’t do Wolf any favors really. It was categorized for comedy and….it got in. Dicaprio was of course going to get in for actor. No screenplay nod for Winter and most shockingly no nom for Marty. We needed it to be in Director, Supporting Actor, and Screenplay to show some hope.
The only locks I see are:
Best Picture-12 Years a Slave and Gravity
Best Actor-Chiwetel Ejiofor
Best Actress-Cate Blanchett
Best Suppt Actor-Jared Leto
Best Suppt Actress-Lupita Nyongo
Best Director-Steve McQueen and Alfonso Cuaron
The Hobbit opens this weekend, American Hustle only opens limited this weekend so you’re wrong Vily
Why are people saying Jonah Hill in Supporting Actor? He hasn’t scored one notice or nomination. I think it would be cool, but I’m not seeing any evidence of it at all.
I would be satisfied with your lineup Chris Price, well at least it includes Banks and Wolf… I’d love Blue Jasmine to get in there too (played well with the Academy) but I doubt they could all fit in 🙁
As I said months ago, in regard to the Best Actor category, there are so many fine performances that nomination day is going to be bittersweet, some people are going to be left out in the cold. I hope it’s not your favorite.
Alt. Philomena, The Butler, Fruitvale Station, August: Osage County (aka any 1 of the Harvey movies)
@ Chris Price, I’m thinking that Harvey is going to push for August: Osage County to be his BP nominee, for two reasons. One is that he’s a producer on the film (along with George Clooney). The other reason is that the film will still be in theaters in March. A Best Picture win = a box office boost. Therefore, I think he’s gonna push for August as his main contender. I think the weakest link in that list of 9 nominees is Her. It will surely land a Best Director nomination (chosen by the Directors’ branch), but Best Picture? I’m not sure about that. How many Academy members would rank it as their #1 choice? It doesn’t seem like there are many who would.
^^^ So, of course, I want the best film to win. But I’d like Wolf of Wall Street to get its due. It’s really unfortunate if its late entry, a combination of screeners not available for the SAG nominating committee and for critics rushing to see the film (and in some cases missing it before voting), precludes it from being fairly evaluated. Because everything’s so early, late films are at an extreme disadvantage. We saw it last year with Zero Dark Thirty and Django missing SAG, no late directing contenders being nominated for the Best Director Oscar. Timeliness plays a huge role.
Not to mention the entire history of silent film.
lol
The movies that don’t feel 100% safe to me as a nominee are Her, Inside Llewyn Davis and The Wolf Of Wall Street. Her and Davis because the Academy generally sucks and makes poor decisions, and Wolf because it might be entering into the game too late. Banks has been screening for a month already, as has Hustle, Davis and Her. Wolf has Marty on its side, which helps the must see factor, but I worry that its too little, too late and Harvey might edge it out unfortunately. Or at least one of the other 2 I have on the bubble. Most likely Harvey movie to me is Philomena, but I wouldn’t be surprised if The Butler made it, only a little disappointed.
I haven’t seen Wolf or Hustle. But I feel that so many of these awards bodies, the Globes and the critics especially, want to be predictors for the Oscars regarding these two. They know Wolf is the harder sell for the Oscars, even if it is the better film, and that Marty’s been awarded. They know Russell hasn’t received recognition yet and is due, that the chances are better it will be his year, hence why this film is performing better in the precursors. Not sure people will agree, but the early awards always want to be on the winning team…
I wish it wasn’t so hard for a film to win that was passed over by SAG and then only recognized lightly at the Globes, but it is. Wolf in all likelihood will be the Black Swan or Zero Dark Thirty of the year, picking up 5 Oscars and not performing well for nominations. I hope that isn’t the case if the film’s as good as some people say it is, but buzz and gaining traction is essential to the Oscars these days, unfortunately. What I would like to see is two things: 1) Fewer than 9 movies nominated for BP, just so we can see the flexibility of the system (the Academy did say the years they tested under this BP system had between 5-9 noms). 2) Precursors that don’t all lineup. The Oscars are relatively late this year in March…wouldn’t it be something if we saw a Pianist-like surging of a film right at the end. Maybe one of the late movies that takes time to catch on? That would be fascinating.
Saving Mr. Banks is IN. No question in my mind about it.
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf Of Wall Street
Alt. Philomena, The Butler, Fruitvale Station, August: Osage County (aka any 1 of the Harvey movies)
I think Sasha’s predictions look pretty plausible. I tentatively agree with the top 9, except… I don’t understand yet whether people like “The Butler” or “Saving Mr. Banks” or not… (Haven’t seen the latter.) Clearly, SAG liked “The Butler,” so that gives it the edge.
But I would put Jonze in instead of Greengrass for the Directing nomination. It’s the Lynch spot, the Almodovar spot, the Malick spot, the Jonze spot! I don’t think Greengrass’s movie is quite well-liked enough. If not Jonze then the Coens.
I would replace Whitaker with DiCaprio. Wishful thinking perhaps. But I think AMPAS members will wake up to this one. (Haven’t seen the movie yet.) If not DiCaprio then Hanks. But no Whitaker.
I would replace Bradley Cooper with Daniel Bruhl, who I think is getting in at the Oscars. (Haven’t seen WOWS yet, so don’t know what to say about Jonah Hill vis-a-vis someone like Gandolfini.)
I would replace Ryan Coogler’s original screenplay spot for Nicole Holofcener’s “Enough Said.” She’ll pick up votes.
“Also even though I thought All Is Lost was fantastic, I think it’s a serious stretch to say it “expands the rules of cinema.” A lot of films exist with minimal dialogue”
Agree with this. The first hour of WALL-E is nearly equal in lack of dialog and, to my mind, a great deal more poetic than All Is Lost. Not to mention the entire history of silent film.
It’s hasty to dismiss Saving Mr. Banks as a Best Picture contender. I’m not particularly surprised that it didn’t get a SAG ensemble nod. I wasn’t expecting it to anyway. Considering that there were only 5 spots available and two of those spots were taken by Weinstein films, then it’s not really a surprise. I was actually thinking that Inside Llewyn Davis or Nebraska would get a SAG ensemble nod. As far as the Golden Globes go, from what I read somewhere, the HFPA really loved Philomena. Which is probably true, considering that it surprisingly got a Best Picture nomination there.
We all need to keep in mind that Saving Mr. Banks has been playing well for Academy members (I heard that someone in the industry even tweeted about that during the last couple of days). It’s Disney’s big vehicle for awards season. I’ve no doubt that it will be a Best Picture nominee.
Bryce,
There is my last hope for Wolf.
American Hustle is opening against guess who?! Our buddy The Hobbit.
The Hobbit should trounce whatever money AH makes.
Plus, no matter the excitement for AH, people who want to see Wolf are much more. Women might like AH more however, it being the soft core version of Wolf if Wall Street.
Like last year, I’ll go all-in for Leo to at least be nominated (and I’ll probably get burned) but I don’t care anyway.
All in or go home!
How I see it so far:
Actor – Dern, Ejiofor, McConaughey in.
the other 2 spots between these 4: Hanks, Redford, DiCaprio, Whitaker.
But which 2!?!?
Actress – theusual 6 always in discussion.
S.Actor – I only see Leto and Fassbender as near-locks.
The other 3 spots between these 6: Abdi, Bruhl, Gandolfini, Cooper, Hill, Hanks.
That’s crazy! Abdi and Bruhl look’ good for noms, but can’t be sure of them, either.
S.Actress – Oprah snub from GG tilted my head, but, I still think it’s her + Lawrence, Nyongo, Roberts, and Squibb.
I think that only Hawkins can make a dent, and thats only if AMPAS lovvves Blue Jasmine. The 5 S. Actresses still look the most locked up category, to me.
Let’s see what BAFTA can do to shake things up 🙂
And remember, every year theres seems to be a fun, surprising Bechir, Gyllenhaal, Bardem, Wallis, Riva in there.
I’ll be dumbfounded should Steve McQueen ever start kissing ass at all. He might turn up and be polite, but I don’t see him taking a Kate Winslet route. Guaranteed, no matter how many awards he wins, you won’t see him smile at any podium.
@Andrew, Sasha referred to The Butler being one of two films directed by African American males. She didn’t say “black”. Steve McQueen is not African American.
@Paddy, agreed, Blackfish is leading the doc race. Also, I don’t really see McQueen kissing much ass either. But I see him furthering his career. Kissing ass may not have been the best phrase to use.
@Vily
How is Sasha not “passionate” about the performances in TWOWS? I don’t think she has gone into detail about the film – embargo and all that jazz.
Sasha, of the stuff i read inc on this site lately in relation to the rest as insigthful and wise as most of your posts are even if some like me respectfully disagree this is the most forthright and realisitc piece you have written at this stage of what clearly we agree is nothing more than a rushed hash job of a race…a awards season period for the period of the month and why? one has to wonder frankly it is utter madness…i all for upsets as the big winner come oscar time and twists and turns if they are warranted but reality is films should have equal opportuntiy to compete with one another gaim momentum. Or maybe the question simply is: do Hollywood value attention grabbing more than careful compelling cases for competition in hollywood own establishment? it seems they abandoned their own flawed strategy for the race for something fast and something that really throws into doubt the integrity and credibility of oscar season as a whole. One has to wonder is this oscar’s bid to stifle public debate? have they declared: “enough is enough” of public criticism so strong in the public of how the ceremony are conducted how many more times than not in the past decade plus at least they made errors against the public and broder film making interests within and outside of Hollywood?
The answer is yes..awards season is putting me off not as much cos itr choice of films and i not surprised that Captain PHillips made the cut- dont underestimate this film the fact Tom Hanks got a acting nomination means this film is a force to be reckoned with make no mistake…Hanks has not one in years and i predict he could well win it..even then to be nominated was Captain Phillips early test not necessarily to win.
For ultmately these timelines are so slender they are meaningless…at least one could argue it curbs the critics groups inlfuence but as Sasha has alluded too now it a full o0n onsalught of a ludicrous amount of critics groups.
It is ultimately up to the academy being the face of hollywood or is that defacto nowadays? i not so sure there no logic in the films that win no consistent pattern,.
One year it low budget fare or many years the odd predictable year justified and other years no logic,, flawed logic no common sense and above all utter contyempt for the public.
The Globes being crammed in the start of such a short turnover from one award ceremony to the other is a hash job borne out of desperation for hollywood to clamp down on public dissent and even dissent within the ranks- it is no secret as i long maintained that oscar…have dissenting vboices deep division in their ranks between the conservative and progressive…maybe it a way to make peace but it just strikes a lot of us surely of sheer stupidity.
Don’t fool yourselves though the Globes confirm there status as mre and mre of a junket set of awards all for the name of self promotion their cause is deterioriating and by the Globes agreing to squeeze into such a turn over and i fear as some have remarked some other workthy films may miss out on oscar nomination thereby leading to a total predictable set of 9 nominations and why 9? why not 10 every year see? awards season is a mess …clearly these awards organisations just want to centure the public into some form of conformity it is madness…i should be writing bout merits of the nominations but i made my decision i stand by it i will rightfly conde4mn the arrogance and falseness of the precursor ceremonioes until they overhaul awards season to be realistically structured and with realistic time frame what was wrong with 4 mnths anyway? and frankly at very least the list of films nominated for best pic are justified. for oscar i quietly hope for gravity to win it would be huge leap for oscar but it cannot mask what is increasingly painful for all of us to engage with a awards season that lost it way organisations deeply divided and a conflicted academy not knowing when they should grasp and seize the moment…when the public knows the years they should (ie saving private ryan should have won, avatar should have after all if not for avatar gravity would ot happen…
Who’s making more money at the B.O. WOLF or HUSTLE?
3. Meant to say Bruce Dern
We’ve been working on the error messages all day and it looks like they’re finally solved.
There is no malware on this site – it has been totally cleaned and cleared. Your Firefox has not yet caught up to this yet but it will if you clear your cache maybe.
I guess there’s many example of non-American/non-British filmmakers who dissed the Oscars. That’s why I single out Woody Allen, if I remember correctly Kubrick never gave them the time of day either. But of the ones who are alive I can’t think of anyone but Woody.
I concur with Kim. If Butler is left out, they can’t screw Leo again.
I can bet my house that next week’s Critics Choice Nominations for Best Actor will be:
1. Chiwetel Ejiofor
2. Robert Redford
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor
4. Matthew Mcconaghuey
5. Leonardo DiCaprio
6. Tom Hanks
Forest Whitaker will be left out.
If SAGs screened Wolf properly, both the movie and Leo would have made the cut and the Butler would be completely forgotten.
I really like the essay, Sasha. However, if you are so passionate about Wolf, why are you not passionate about the performance?! There is discrepency there for which the reasons are still unknown to me…
The Butler is one of the two films by black directors this year? So are Steve McQueen and Ryan Coogler the same person?
Also even though I thought All Is Lost was fantastic, I think it’s a serious stretch to say it “expands the rules of cinema.” A lot of films exist with minimal dialogue.
If Wolf of Wall Street gets picture, director and even supporting actor, and DiCaprio is snubbed again – no, that can’t happen. That just cannot happen. AMPAS can’t follow up last year’s Django cruelty with THAT, can they?
Under no circumstances. I don’t think Steve McQueen would be caught dead kissing ass.
I think to some degree everyone does. Everyone. Some much more than others. Except Woody Allen. And Some foreign filmmakers who never gave shit like Bergman (wrote them a letter to tell them not to consider his films) and Buñuel (said they were trash).
Great read, Sasha. As ever, at this time of the year having wraps like this one to bookmark where things are at are extremely helpful. especially as many of these movies haven’t yet opened in my neck of the woods! It does seem like a wonderful embarrassment of riches this season. The delicious cream has indeed risen right to the top.
No one will watch [Blackfish] and thus, it isn’t really doing much in the documentary race.
Nonsense. It’s the frontrunner in the documentary race. With the critic groups, it’s the second-most-rewarded doc of the season, and it’s on the shortlist for Oscar. Plus it has a fair few celebrity backers.
voters would not want to massage the same shaft again and again to same damned result each time
Shooting blanks!
I think The Butler gets in because of its SAG support, its box office and it being one of the two films by an African American director this year
It was, however, shut out of the Golden Globes entirely. Like, I could have put money on the HFPA nominating Oprah. It’s a major dent in its Oscar chances, I think.
Steve McQueen – a filmmaker who marches to the beat of his own drum and certainly is going to start kissing ass to win awards
Under no circumstances. I don’t think Steve McQueen would be caught dead kissing ass.
Me, too, bd74
And, of course, periodically, Mozilla Firefox still tags this site as a malicious hacked one.
Sasha, can you hire new webmasters, please?
Is there something wrong with the site today? I keep getting this error message:
Fatal error: Allowed memory size of 100663296 bytes exhausted (tried to allocate 129 bytes) in /home/awards/public_html/wp-includes/plugin.php on line 193
I still feel like Her is going to miss out, the same way The Master did. It just seems a little outside the Academy’s wheelhouse. I’d expect Dallas Buyers to slip in, if anything. Saving Mr. Banks might hit a sweet spot, though, like Extremely Loud did, however misguided it may be.