For the 5th year in a row, to help us better understand the Academy’s voting system, we’re running a Simulated Oscar Ballot devised and constructed each season by our own accounting wizard, Rob Y. We’re well aware that AD readers represent a demographic that doesn’t match the AMPAS and many of us have different taste that most Oscar voters. Thus the purpose of this ballot is not to try to predict what the Oscars will do — Marshall Flores is developing a stats model for that. Instead, this ballot is intended to lift the veil on the process used to tabulate votes in the preferential voting system and to give us a clear sense of how the internal numbers shake out.
Here’s the link to the dropdown menus for Rob’s Simulated Oscar Ballot. I can’t improve on Rob’s instructions:
“Pretend you are an honorary member of the Academy, and you are asked to nominate films in their respective categories. Make your selections accordingly.”
If you change your mind, submit an updated nomination form. Your last submission in each branch will be used. Voting will be closed on Monday. January 13 at 10:00 PM PST.
I can’t see The Act of Killing so I’m not voting at all.
I know this has been dissected pretty thoroughly, but there’s no good reason why certain films that did receive a theatrical release should be ineligible. (Stories We Tell, Beyond the Hills, Like Someone in Love, A Touch of Sin, Mother of George, The Selfish Giant, The Unspeakable Act, and yes, Upstream Color, to name several.) They shouldn’t have to go through any special submission or campaigning process; just have a complete list kept by the Academy’s official Secretary of Ballots or whomever.
At least I did get to vote for Mads Mikkelsen, the best performance I saw in 2013. Some other left-field options, if you’ve seen them: Saskia Rosendahl (Actress, Lore), Onata Aprile (Sup. Actress, What Maisie Knew), Ben Foster (Sup. Actor, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints), Wadjda for Original Screenplay, The Grandmaster for Cinematography.
Color outside the lines!
Oh crap. I forgot to do this. *runs*
FYC
Lead Actor:
Mads Mikkelsen (The Hunt)
Ali Mosaffa (The Past)
Lead Actress:
Paulina Garcia (Gloria)
Andrea Riseborough (Shadow Dancer)
Supporting Actor:
Sam Rockwell (The Way Way Back)
Casey Affleck (Out of the Furnace)
Supporting Actress:
Julianne Nicholson (August: Osage County)
Kaitlyn Dever (Short Term 12)
FYC: Margot Robbie (The Wolf of Wall Street)
In Lead: Julia Roberts (August: OC) and Bradley Cooper (American Hustle)
Supporting actresses from A: OC
Iron Man 3, Warm Bodies, About Time and We’re the Millers, if you want something different.
Picture:
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Before Midnight
Blue Jasmine
Director:
Alfonso Cuaron
Martin Scorsese
Steve McQueen
Woody Allen
Paul Greengrass
Actress:
Amy Adams
Julie Delpy
Sandra Bullock
Cate Blanchett
Judi Dench
Actor:
Christian Bale(Am. Hustle)
Chiwetel Ejiofor
Matthew McConaughey(Dallas)
Leonardo Dicaprio(Wolf)
Tom Hanks
Sup Actress:
Emma Watson(Bling Ring)
Jennifer Lawrence
Margot Robbie
Lupita Nyongo
Sarah Paulson(12yas)
Sup Actor:
Daniel Bruhl
Jonah Hill
Michael Fassbender
Jeremy Renner(Hustle)
Jared Leto
FYC
Best actor
Hugh Jackman, Prisoners
Best supporting actor
Sarah Paulson, 12 Years A Slave
Margot Robbie, The Wolf of Wall Street
Cyrus,
I have fixed that error. The screenplays are the hardest categories to work out. The Academy does not release how the screenplay nominees are split. I apologize the error.
If you would like to amend your selection, you will need to fill out your selection for both screenplay categories.
Rob
I already voted but noticed an error.
The Past is an Original Screenplay not Adapted as listed currently. Voted for it in Adapted anyway.
I haven’t seen several key films yet so I can’t truthfully vote in this.
I strategically voted Philomena, but I figure it has a better chance with the Academy than with the AD collective. Prisoners and Banks were close behind, and Jackman was number one for Lead Actor.
Best Actor
1.Hugh Jackman Prisoners
2.John Gallagher JR Short Term 12
3.Tye Sheridan Mud
4.Bruce Dern Nebraska
5.Dennis Quaid At Any Price
Supporting actor
1.James Franco Springbreakers
2.Keith Stanfield Short Term 12
3.Harrison Ford 42
4.Jake Gyllenhall Prisoners
5.Dwayne Johnson Pain & Gain
Best Actress
1.Brie Larson Short Term 12
2.Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine
3.Adele Exarchoupolous blue is color
4.Katie Chang the Bling Ring
5.Vanessa Hudgens Gimme Shelter
Supporting Actress
1.June Squibb Nebraska
2.Melody Diaz Fruitvale Station
3.Emma Watson The Bling Ring
4.Ashley Benson Springbreakers
5.Yolanda Ross Go ForSisters
Thoughts??
I can’t either, and I can’t edit it. It is the URL though.
Rob Y,
just so you know, for some reason, I can’t click on the link. I don’t know why.
Upstream Color is not an eligible film.
This is the Academy’s reminder list:
http://www.oscars.org/awards/academyawards/rules/reminderlist.html#u
Jake Bart
I have both james Franco (Supporting actor) and Emma Watson (Supporting Actress) both on my ballot as well as Katie Chang (Best Actress) on my ballot as well
I would have picked Upstream Color for picture, director, cinematography, editing and script but it wasn’t among the choices…what gives?
We’ll get Upstream Color added to the menus for anyone who wants to redo their ballot.
If I may hazard a few names for everyone’s consideration (mostly because they haven’t a snowball’s chance in Hell of being nominated here or at the Oscars).
THE WORLD’S END (Picture, Director, Original Screenplay, Editing)
STOKER (Cinematography, Production Design, Original Score)
THE GRANDMASTER (Cinematography, Production Design, Original Score)
Ziyi Zhang in THE GRANDMASTER (Supporting Actress)
Emma Watson in THE BLING RING (Supporting Actress)
Shailene Woodley in THE SPECTACULAR NOW (Supporting Actress)
Sam Rockwell in THE WAY, WAY BACK (Supporting Actor)
and finally (both because he deserves it and to ruffle Sasha’s feathers a bit)…
James Franco in SPRING BREAKERS (Supporting Actor)
I’ll be seeing AMERICAN HUSTLE, DALLAS BUYERS CLUB, and SHORT TERM 12 before voting closes, so I’ll likely re-vote, but I’m quite pleased with the first ballot I’ve submitted.
Marshall, re: strategic voting… do you believe such a strategy is even possible. (….asking for a friend)
No voting system using voter’s preference rankings is completely immune to strategic voting, so IRV is vulnerable to some extent. That being said, strategic voting in IRV basically occurs *only* if voters have sufficient information about other voter’s preferences.
If AMPAS voters don’t even have the foggiest idea of how IRV works in general, I doubt they’re sophisticated enough to collude and vote tactically either to an significant degree. 😉
My picks:
FILM:
Her
The Wolf Of Wall Street
Inside Llewyn Davis
Gravity
12 Years A Slave
DIRECTOR:
Alfonso Cuaron
Spike Jonze
Martin Scorsese
Steve McQueen
David O. Russell
ACTOR:
Leonardo Dicaprio (Wolf)
Matthew McConaughey
Oscar Isaac
Christian Bale
Chiwetel Ejiofor
ACTRESS:
Cate Blanchett
Greta Gerwig
Emma Thompson
Julie Delpy
Sandra Bullock
SUP. ACTOR:
Bradley Cooper
Jonah Hill
Michael Fassbender
James Franco
Jared Leto
SUP. ACTRESS:
Scarlett Johansson
June Squibb
Sally Hawkins
Lupita Nyong’o
Jennifer Lawrence
O. SCREENPLAY:
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
The World’s End
American Hustle
Blue Jasmine
A. SCREENPLAY:
12 Years A Slave
The Wolf Of Wall Street
Before Midnight
The Spectacular Now
This Is The End
EDITING:
Gravity
The Wolf Of Wall Street
The World’s End
Inside Llewyn Davis
Her
CINEMATOGRAPHY:
12 Years A Slave
Her
Gravity
Inside Llewyn Davis
To The Wonder
7 nods for 12 Years A Slave. 6 each for Her and The Wolf Of Wall Street. 5 each for Gravity, American Hustle and Inside Llewyn Davis.
For those who are interested, my final ballot for the simulation. No strategic voting – just my ranked preferences of the eligible films. Thanks to Dr. Rob for all his hard work in providing this ballot.
Picture
1. Gravity
2. Blue Is the Warmest Color
3. Before Midnight
4. The Wolf of Wall Street
5. Her
Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
2. Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
4. Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station
5. Spike Jonze, Her
Actor
1. Leo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Joaquin Phoenix, Her
3. Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
4. Michael B. Jordan, Fruitvale Station
5. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Actress
1. Brie Larson, Short Term 12
2. Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue Is the Warmest Color
3. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
4. Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
5. Greta Gerwig, Frances Ha
Supporting Actor
1. Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
2. Barkhad Abdi, Captain Phillips
3. Matthew McConaughey, Mud
4. Russell Crowe, Man of Steel
5. Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Supporting Actress
1. Lea Seydoux, Blue Is the Warmest Color
2. June Squibb, Nebraska
3. Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
4. Amy Adams, Her
5. Rinko Kikuchi, Pacific Rim
Original Screenplay
1. Her
2. Fruitvale Station
3. Nebraska
4. Inside Llewyn Davis
5. Gravity
Adapted Screenplay
1. The Wolf of Wall Street
2. Before Midnight
3. Short Term 12
4. 12 Years a Slave
5. Blue Is the Warmest Color
Cinematography
1. Gravity
2. Inside Llewyn Davis
3. Pacific Rim
4. Her
5. 12 Years a Slave
Editing
1. Gravity
2. The Wolf of Wall Street
3. Her
4. Rush
5. Pacific Rim
Marshall, re: strategic voting… do you believe such a strategy is even possible. (….asking for a friend)
I just want to point out Upstream Color is not in the best picture choices…and Lone Ranger is…
Best Picture
1.Short Term 12
2.Blue Jasmine
3.Springbreakers
4.Mud
5.Prisoners
Picture
1. Nebraska
2. 12 Years A Slave
3. Gravity
4. Before Midnight
5. The Great Beauty
And what a film.
Bigelow Rank
1. THE HURT LOCKER
2. NEAR DARK
3. POINT BREAK
4. STRANGE DAYS
5. ZERO DARK THIRTY
6. K-19: THE WIDOWMAKER
Have not seen LOVELESS and THE WEIGHT OF WATER
OT Trivia: Is Kathryn Bigelow the first female director that will have one of her films “remade”? Progress at last.
Best Picture:
Her
12 Years a Slave
Dallas Buyers Club
Inside Llewyn Davis
Blue is The Warmest Color
Director:
Steve McQueen
Abdellatif Kechiche
Spike Jonze
Alfonso Cuaron
Joel & Ethan Coen
All Robinson
Thank you have to go change my best actress picks Vanessa hudgens gives an Oscar worthy performance!!!!;
david,
Gimme Shelter was released in just Los Angeles on December 13, 2013 for an “Oscar qualifying run”. It won’t make any real “box office” until January 24. The same with Labor Day.
I didn’t know Vanessa Hudgens in gimme shelter qualified for this years Oscars???? Somebody help me is this true??
Sorry to see some of the titles that would have figured prominently in my ballot weren’t eligible (although all of them got brief 2013 releases in the U.S.) Those would be:
GINGER AND ROSA(Picture,Screenplay,Actress:Elle Fanning)
BLANCANIEVES(Picture,Cinematography,
Supporting Actress:Angela Molina
THE SILENCE(Picture,Screenplay,
Supporting Actor: Ulrich Thomsen)
GOLIYON KI RASLEELA RAM-LEELA
(Actress-Deepika Padukone)
I have updated Short Term 12 to Adapted.
If you would like to amend your selection, you will need to fill out your selection for both screenplay categories.
Rob
I voted… for president in 2012…. and here tonight. Woo Woo!!
I can’t wait to see the results.
I would love to vote in this but unfortunately in Australia we won’t see
-Her 16 Jan
-Inside Llewyn Davis 16 Jan
-The Wolf of Wall Street 23 Jan
-12 Years A Slave 30 Jan
-Dallas Buyers Club 13 Feb
-Nebraska 20 Feb
and others until after the deadline.
Bryce,
My biggest heartbreak would be if somehow Robert Redford doesn’t make the Best Actor 5.
2nd would probably be if Inside Llewyn Davis doesn’t get nominated for Best Picture.
Uh… I agree Ryan. The ballot on here has Short Term 12 listed as an original screenplay. I was hoping the powers that be could change it to adapted so I can vote for it there. If that’s you… then thanks!
And also I’d be upset if Short Term 12 was completely shut out come Oscar morning i think most everybody on here would agree with that I think it deserves 3 nominations Best Actress,best original song, best adapted screenplay
Bryce
Obvious for me the biggest omission would be Brie Larson for best actress I think most people who comment on here knows she’s deserves a nom
I’m not ready for this.
Anyhoo, I’m not going to get heartbroken on nomination morning. I’m really not attached to anything this year. I’ll feel bad for McConaughey if he comes up empty though.
It’s done, people. Oscar voting is over. Nobody can listen to your pleas no more. Let’s be grim and play a game. What is the omission you most dread on nomination morning? (make it plausible and heartbreaking)
Me? Martin Scorsese misses the cut 🙁 🙁 🙁
done. i had fun voting.
I tried looking for an original source, but since I’m not in the business I’m not even sure what that source would be. What I do have to offer is that
a) In Contention lists it as adapted and I know I first saw Kris tweet about it so while not official, it’s something.
b) Here’s an article from IndieWire citing it as adapted.
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/oscars-which-films-will-pick-up-original-adapted-screenplay-nominations-20131023
That’s kind of all I’ve got. Even IMDb page for the movie doesn’t list the source material, and that’s my usual go-to determining factor. It doesn’t seem like Cinedigm has adverts out for it anywhere so I’ve done about as much due diligence as I’m willing to do.
I know there are a lot of Short Term 12 fans in the AD community so I just want to make sure that it’s awarded properly (And you know… adapted screenplay is a lot less crowded than original, so that helps in both the AD simulated ballot and the real ballot).
Short Term 12 is based on a short film by Dustin Cretton. The short film had the same title. Dustin Cretton made a complete short version before he made a second expanded full-length feature version. If the feature has been ruled original by the writers I would like to see the article or report that says so. But the facts are plain and straightforward: The long version is based on a complete and previously produced short version.
Here’s the original 2008 short film, Short Term 12
http://m.imdb.com/title/tt1299384/
If Indiewire has other proof that the previous original film does not matter, I’d like to see it.
I never get close on these things. I’m voting for what I really think, which means I’ll be lucky if I pick one from the top picks at all.
Can AMPAS members also change their votes if they want to, as long as it is before the deadline?
Brady,
Can you find that source? This was a questionable title. I searched and searched the official site and other sources. I assumed that since there was no reference to another source, that it was original.
I’m pretty sure that the Short Term 12 screenplay is being submitted as an adapted screenplay, since it is based off of a short film. I think it just happened a few days ago? Or am I losing my mind in a sea of ineligibilities?
Picture: Her/ 12YAS/ Dallas Buyers Club/ Blue Jasmine/ Gravity
Director: Jonze/McQueen/Valle/ Allen/ Cuaron
Actress: Blanchett/ Exarchopoulos/ Larson/ Mara/ Delphy
Actor: McConaughey/ Ejiofor/ Elba/ Bale/ Phoenix
Sup. Actress: Lupita/ Roberts/ Johansson/ Hawkins/ Paulson
Sup. Actor: Fassbender/ Leto/ Affleck/ Dice Clay/ Abdi
Or. Screenplay: Her/ Blue Jasmine/ Dallas Buyers Club/ / The Past/ Rush
Ad. Screenplay: 12YAS/ Before Midnight/ Blue is the warmest color/ The Great Beauty/ Short Term 12
Cinematography: 12YAS/ The Great Beauty/ Rush/ Her/ Aint Them Bodies Saint
Editing: Gravity/ Rush/ Fast Furious 6/ Blue Jasmine/ Her
My top 5 films
12 years a Slave
Inside Llewyn Davis
Gravity
Her
Before Midnight
Christophe, you are right there is noting in the rules against your vote . I stand corrected sorry.
This time around, I stuck with passion votes and underdogs only, rarely filling the slate. The leaders can fend for themselves.
steve50, I’m sure there are some members of the Academy who vote the same way. If we had a list of members I’ll bet we could do a pretty good which members vote that way. I wish more of them would. If more filmmakers and more critics voted that way, awards season would be a lot more interesting. We’d all be scratching our heads a lot more at winners. My head likes being scratched. My head would rather be scratched than be hammered. My head would rather cock quizzically than nod off soaked in sameness. My head feels hammered and soaked by the BAFTA nominations. I wish the Sight & Sound people would vote annually on the year’s best movies. Sometimes I wish the BAFTA and everybody else would stop sucking Hollywood’s dick.
Let Hollywood suck its own dick, right? At least that’s an interesting freaky thing to watch.
@edkargir
Academy Rule #6 states that if two achievements by one actor in the same category reach enough votes to get nominated, only one will make the cut. BUT it says nothing about individual voters having to limit their votes to one per actor in the same category. Unless you can show me official documents issued by the Academy to prove me wrong I’ll keep my ballot as such. Thank you!
@Ryan Adams
Thanks.
My picks
Best Picture
1.Short Term 12
2.Blue Jasmine
3.Springbreakers
4.Mud
5.Prisoners
Best Actor
1.Hugh Jackman Prisoners
2.John Gallagher Jr Short Term 12
3.Tye Sheridan mud
4.Bruce Dern Nebraska
5.Dennis Quaid At Any Price
5.b Connor Chapman The Selfish Giant
Supporting actor
1.James Franco Springbreakers
2.Keith Stanfield Short Term 12
3.Harrison Ford 42
4.Jake Gyllenhall Prisoners
5.Dwayne Johnson Pain&Gain
Best Actress
1.Brie Larson Short Term 12
2.Cate Blanchett Blue Jasmine
3.Adele Exarchoupolous Blue
4.Greta Gerwig Frances Ha
5.Katie Chang The Bling Ring
Supporting Actress
1.June Squibb Nebraska
2.Melodie Diaz Fruitvale Station
3.Emma Watson The Bling Ring
4.Ashley Benson Springbreakers
5.Yolanda Ross Go For Sisters
Thanks, Ryan – I’ll give it another go.
Christophe, you cannot vote for the same actor in the same catagory for 2 different movies.
@Rob Y
OK I see now. Thanks for your timely answer and all your efforts! It’s a really kick-ass job!
Gravity’s screenplay was nominated for a Bafta right this morning/evening so I guess it’s definitely in the race! I was just worried that some lazy voters might be tempted to choose their picks solely among the frontrunners’ list, but we all know how passionate Ad readers are, they’ll scroll down and down until they can find what they’re looking for.
Christophe,
I took the front runners from Sasha’s list on the main page. Saving Mr. Banks should have been on there, and it has been corrected. Gravity is not on Sasha’s front runner’s list, unfortunately.
I thought that the screenplay for Gravity was great in its minimal use of dialogue/monologue. And I selected it as one of my five films for Original Screenplay for my selection.
Why are Gravity and Saving Mr. Banks not listed among the 12 frontrunners for Best Original Screenplay??? Meanwhile, other titles that did not get as much attention in this category are listed instead…
Is that a deliberate attempt to influence voters???
Aren’t we invited to share our picks in the comments section this year? Because I’m doing it anyway!
PICTURE
Saving Mr. Banks
The Great Gatsby
Blue Jasmine
Gravity
The Wolf of Wall Street
DIR./CIN./EDIT
Same as PIC. with Gatsby as #1
LEAD ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Great Gatsby
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years A Slave
Oscar Isaac – Inside Llewyn Davis
Ralph Fiennes – The Invisible Woman
LEAD ACTRESS
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Naomi Watts – Diana
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Tom Hanks – Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill – The Wolf of Wall Street
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years A Slave
Joel Edgerton – The Great Gatsby
Tobey Maguire – The Great Gatsby
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally Hawkins – Blue Jasmine
Carey Mulligan – The Great Gatsby
Margot Robbie – The Wolf of Wall Street
Kristen Wiig – The Secret Life of Walter Mitty
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Saving Mr. Banks
Blue Jasmine
Gravity
Enough Said
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Great Gatsby
The Wolf of Wall Street
The Invisible Woman
Ernest and Celestine
The Wind Rises
Chris,
Upstream Color is not on the list of eligible films from the Academy.
I’ve been waiting for this!!!!
I wanted to vote for Upstream Color for Best Cinematography but it wasn’t available in the choices.
I am putting Leo in my ballot for his bravura, no holds barred performance though I doubt he gets the Oscar nod.
I’m wondering if the success of Frozen means it also has a shot at making the shortlist for Best Picture. Toy Story 3 was the last animated film to make the cut, if I’m not mistaken (of course, I could just look it up, but…)
Haven’t seen many of the favorites, but I just finished short term 12 and it’s a delight to know I’ve now seen five films that are nomination worthy.
I don’t know how rewatchable the film is, whether it will get dull as it’s not as layered as some other films, or maybe the characters will come to see like old friends that you want to revisit over and over again. But, damn, the first viewing was phenomenal. Nothing was overdone, and there’s just enough mystery to leave you wanting more. Here’s to hoping we get a short term 13.
Sasha, Ryan, why the Oscar Podcast page not able to load? It always come out with a wordpress error page. Please do fix it. Thanks
The site has been moved to a new server in hopes of providing speedier page loads for readers during peak season. Not all the components of the site have been migrated over to the new hyperdrive yet.
mp3 link to the current new episode of the Oscar Podcast is right here!
Episode 55 p1 (current race) of Oscar Podcast is up
Perfect timing. I’m seeing HER and INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS on Friday so ’til then! 🙂
Just crashed on me – submitting editing (and AFTER the excruciating spelling bee on actors names!!)
If I’m not mistaken, each page is saved independently. So I think you only lose the current page if a menu crashes. I’ll check with Rob about this. For example, I think we can go back at any time to change our votes in any category if we have second thoughts, and only the category we re-vote changes.
But thanks for the heads up. Traffic might be causing it to snag these first few hours.
Is Act of Killing ineligible?