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DGA Preview and Prediction

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This weekend, on January 25, the DGA will call out their winner for the 2013 film year.

There are some things about this year that haven’t changed. The two films vying for the top prize still came out on or before Toronto/Telluride. Box office still isn’t going to play a part in the outcome. The critics have some say in how it’s gone down. The public is still completely taken out of the equation. When the Producers Guild defied all expectations by delivering a tie for the first time in their history, it suddenly became clear just how close this race really was. That was on a preferential/instant run-off ballot.

ENTER OUR CONTEST

Here is a good video explainer of the run-off system:

As you can see, passionate support doesn’t really help in a close race. It surely helps if one movie is supported overwhelmingly, say, The Artist. But where a situation like we have now is concerned, the passion vote doesn’t really help. I’m going to presume that with the Producers Guild there were three top vote getters. If 12 Years a Slave or Gravity was your number one and two, in order for American Hustle to have topped both of those, it would have to be number 3. I’m going to guess that most people would not put 12 Years, Gravity then American Hustle. Either they liked American Hustle better than those two or they didn’t like it at all. That is what you call a divisive film and usually that kind of movie can’t win in a run-off system.

What you really need is a situation where your film is either 1, 2, or 3. You need a lot of 1s, a lot of 2s and a lot of 3s and you’re a contender for the win. What doesn’t help is if you’re hated. Last year, for instance, no one really hated Argo. Either they loved it or they liked it a lot.

That movie, it seems to me, could be Gravity. It could be American Hustle. And it could be 12 Years a Slave. My instincts tell me, though, that you have to be an asshole to put 12 Years a Slave down your ballot. You are likely going to put it towards the top of your ballot either because you view it as the best film of the nominees, or you see it as a noble effort even if it wasnt your cup of tea – you admire the ambition of it. Or, you want to see your vote make a difference in terms of film and Academy history.

If you look at Movie City News’ top ten collection, 12 Years a Slave is at the top of the list. It’s there because it was either a number 1 or a number 2 or very high on those lists. American Hustle did not get many number 1 votes over there and of those who did put it at number 1, their number 2 wasn’t Gravity or 12 Years a Slave — only Joe Morgenstern picked Hustle and then Gravity. So if you went by that list, there’s a good chance Hustle wouldn’t pick up enough number 1 votes to get it in the running for the win.

Now you have to look at how people divide their love for Gravity and 12 Years. Are they similar kinds of people? Are they wildly different? There is a small minority of voters who pick Gravity at #1 and 12 Years at #2, but there are fewer, I’d say, who do it the opposite way. Generally speaking, those who put 12 Years at number one pick something like Wolf of Wall Street for 2. But 12 Years and Gravity are both populating those lists in the top slots.

In a tight year like this one, each award win impacts the next one. Since DGA ballots aren’t due until Friday of this week, voters are likely deciding between McQueen and Cuaron, unless they’re the kind of people who voted for Ralph Nader. There will be no instant run-off voting here.

Because it’s such a close year, we don’t even really know for sure if the DGA will determine Best Picture or not. It’s possible that Cuaron could win in a passion vote at the DGA and in the Best Director category at the Oscar but that the preferential ballot will reward the film that has the most broad support overall, and that would be 12 Years a Slave.

I don’t know how to proceed since we’re seeing something we haven’t ever seen before, with a tie at the Producers Guild and two films vying for the big prize. What I know about the DGA, though, is they do two things consistently. They vote for people they know well and they vote for directors who are nice and amiable. They don’t like directors who are brilliant but who don’t regularly kiss ass. They like the Danny Boyles and the Tom Hoopers and the Ben Afflecks. Nice guys. Logic would then dictate that Cuaron, being one of the nicest guys in town, with the Clooney connection, would have DGA in the bag.

I would then say for your predictions sake that likability and passion would drive this to be that year that breaks the rules with the preferential ballot – Cuaron gets director, 12 Years gets picture as everyone is saying.

But something tells me that this year it’s not going to split, that it will go all the way with McQueen and 12 Years. The reason being, I don’t think I could look at my DGA ballot and not vote for McQueen. For me personally it would either be Martin Scorsese or Steve McQueen. No one else would even remotely enter the picture. But then again, I wouldn’t have voted for Affleck (Spielberg would have gotten my vote), nor Hazanavicius (Scorsese again), Hooper (Fincher, duh). You have to go back to Bigelow to find a year where I personally would have picked the winner, Kathryn Bigelow.

So, don’t listen to me. My prediction is Steve McQueen. My wishful thinking is Steve McQueen. Who will probably win? Alfonso Cuaron.

The DGA Awards
won DGA | won Oscar

*film nominated/+ won Best Picture at the Oscars

2013

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

2012

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Ang Lee, Life of Pi Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Ben Affleck, Argo David O. Russell, Silver Linings
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty Michael Haneke Amour
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

2011

Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist+
Martin Scorsese, Hugo Martin Scorsese, Hugo*
Alexander Payne, The Descendants Alexander Payne, The Descendants*
Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris*
David Fincher, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo Terrence Malick, Tree of Life*

2010

Tom Hooper The King’s Speech Tom Hooper the King’s Speech+
David Fincher, Social Network David Fincher, Social Network*
Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan*
David O. Russell, The Fighter David O. Russell, The Fighter*
Christopher Nolan, Inception* The Coens, True Grit*

2009

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Bigelow, Hurt Locker+
Lee Daniels, Precious Lee Daniels, Precious*
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air Jason Reitman, Up in the Air*
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds*
Jim Cameron, Avatar Jim Cameron, Avatar*

2008

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Danny Boyle, Slumdog+
Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon*
Gus Van Sant, Milk Gus Van Sant, Milk*
David Fincher, Benjamin Button David Fincher, Benjamin Button*
Christopher Nolan, The Dark Knight Stephen Daldry, The Reader*

2007

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+
Sean Penn, Into the Wild Jason Reitman, Juno*
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton*
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood*

2006

Stephen Frears, The Queen Stephen Frears, The Queen*
Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, Babel*
Bill Condon, Dreamgirls Clint Eastwood, Letters from Iwo Jima*
Faris and Dayton, Little Miss Sunshine* Paul Greengrass, United 93
Martin Scorsese, The Departed Martin Scorsese, The Departed+

2005

Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain *
George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck*
Paul Haggis, Crash Paul Haggis, Crash+
Bennett Miller, Capote Bennett Miller, Capote*
Steven Spielberg, Munich Steven Spielberg, Munich *

2004

Alexander Payne for Sideways Alexander Payne for Sideways*
Martin Scorsese for The Aviator Martin Scorsese for The Aviator*
Taylor Hackford for Ray Taylor Hackford for Ray*
Marc Forster for Finding Neverland* Mike Leigh for Vera Drake
Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby+

2003

Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation*
Clint Eastwood, Mystic River Clint Eastwood, Mystic River*
Peter Jackson, ROTK Peter Jackson, ROTK+
Peter Weir, Master and Commander Peter Weir, Master and Commander*
Gary Ross, Seabiscuit* Fernando Merielles, City of God

2002

Martin Scorsese, Gangs of New York Martin Scorsese*
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings* Pedro Almodovar
Roman Polanski, The Pianist Roman Polanski*
Rob Marshall, Chicago Rob Marshall+
Steven Daldry, The Hours Steven Daldry*


2001

Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+
Peter Jackson, Lord of the Rings Peter Jackson, LOTR*
Christopher Nolan, Memento Robert Altman, Gosford Park*
Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down Ridley Scott, Black Hawk Down
Baz Luhrmann, Moulin Rouge* David Lynch, Mulholland Drive

2000

Cameron Crowe, Almost Famous Stephen Daldry, Billy Elliot*
Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon*
Ridley Scott, Gladiator Ridley Scott, Gladiator+
Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich Steven Soderbergh, Erin Brockovich *
Steven Soderbergh, Traffic Steven Soderbergh, Traffic*

1999

Frank Darabont, The Green Mile* Lasse Hallstrom, Cider House Rules*
Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich Spike Jonze, Being John Malkovich
Michael Mann, The Insider Michael Mann, The Insider*
Sam Mendes, American Beauty Sam Mendes, American Beauty+
M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense M. Night Shyamalan, The Sixth Sense*

1998

Peter Weir, Truman Show Peter Weir, Truman Show
Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line Terrence Malick, Thin Red Line
John Madden, Shakes in Love John Madden, Shakes in Love*
Steven Spielberg, SPR Steven Spielberg, SPR
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful

1997

James L. Brooks As Good As It Gets* Peter Cattaneo, The Full Monty*
Steven Spielberg Amistad Atom Egoyan, The Sweet Hereafter
Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting Gus Van Sant, Good Will Hunting*
James Cameron, Titanic James Cameron, Titanic+
Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential Curtis Hanson, L.A. Confidential*

1996

Cameron Crowe, Jerry Maguire* Milos Forman for The People vs. Larry Flynt
Joel Coen, Fargo Joel Coen, Fargo*
Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies Mike Leigh, Secrets & Lies *
Anthony Minghella, The English Patient Anthony Minghella, The English Patient+
Scott Hicks, Shine Scott Hicks, Shine*

1995

Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas Mike Figgis for Leaving Las Vegas
Mel Gibson for Braveheart Mel Gibson for Braveheart+
Ron Howard for Apollo 13* Chris Noonan for Babe*
Ang Lee for Sense and Sensibility* Tim Robbins for Dead Man Walking
Michael Radford for Il Postino Michael Radford for Il Postino*

1994

Mike Newell for Four Weddings and a Funeral* Woody Allen for Bullets Over Broadway
Frank Darabont for The Shawshank Redemption* Krzysztof Kieslowski for Red
Robert Redford for Quiz Show Robert Redford for Quiz Show*
Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction Quentin Tarantino for Pulp Fiction*
Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis for Forrest Gump+

1993

Andrew Davis for The Fugitive* Robert Altman for Short Cuts
Jane Campion for The Piano Jane Campion for The Piano*
James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day James Ivory for The Remains Of the Day*
Martin Scorsese for The Age Of Innocence Jim Sheridan for In the Name Of the Father*
Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg for Schindler’s List+

1992

Robert Altman for The Player Robert Altman for The Player
Rob Reiner for A Few Good Men* Martin Brest for Scent Of a Woman*
Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven Clint Eastwood for Unforgiven+
James Ivory for Howards End James Ivory for Howards End*
Neil Jordan for The Crying Game Neil Jordan for The Crying Game*

1991

Barbra Streisand for The Prince Of Tides* John Singleton for Boyz N the Hood
Oliver Stone for JFK Oliver Stone for JFK*
Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise Ridley Scott for Thelma & Louise
Barry Levinson for Bugsy Barry Levinson for Bugsy*
Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs Jonathan Demme for The Silence Of the Lambs+

1990

Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III Francis Ford Coppola for The Godfather Part III*
Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves Kevin Costner for Dances With Wolves+
Barry Levinson for Avalon Stephen Frears for The Grifters
Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas Martin Scorsese for GoodFellas*
Giuseppe Tornatore for Cinema Paradiso Barbet Schroeder for Reversal Of Fortune

1989
Driving Miss Daisy won Best Picture

Born on the Fourth of July: Oliver Stone Born on the Fourth of July: Oliver Stone
Field of Dreams: Phil Alden Robinson Henry V: Kenneth Branagh
Crimes and Misdemeanors: Woody Allen Crimes and Misdemeanors: Woody Allen
Dead Poets Society: Peter Weir Dead Poets Society: Peter Weir
When Harry Met Sally…: Rob Reiner My Left Foot: Jim Sheridan

1988

Rain Man: Barry Levinson Rain Man: Barry Levinson+
A Fish Called Wanda: Charles Crichton A Fish Called Wanda: Charles Crichton
Working Girl: Mike Nichols Working Girl: Mike Nichols
Mississippi Burning: Alan Parker Mississippi Burning: Alan Parker
Who Framed Roger Rabbit: Robert Zemeckis The Last Temptation of Christ: Martin Scorsese

1987

The Last Emperor: Bernardo Bertolucci The Last Emperor: Bernardo Bertolucci+
Broadcast News: James L. Brooks Hope and Glory: John Boorman
My Life as a Dog: Lasse Hallström My Life as a Dog: Lasse Hallström
Empire of the Sun: Steven Spielberg Moonstruck: Norman Jewison
Fatal Attraction: Adrian Lyne Fatal Attraction: Adrian Lyne

1986

Platoon: Oliver Stone Platoon: Oliver Stone+
Hannah and Her Sisters: Woody Allen Hannah and Her Sisters: Woody Allen
Children of a Lesser God: Randa Haines The Mission: Roland Joffé
A Room with a View: James Ivory A Room with a View: James Ivory
Stand by Me: Rob Reiner Blue Velvet: David Lynch

1985

Out of Africa: Sydney Pollack Out of Africa: Sydney Pollack+
The Color Purple: Steven Spielberg Kiss of the Spider Woman: Hector Babenco
Prizzi’s Honor: John Huston Prizzi’s Honor: John Huston
Cocoon: Ron Howard Ran: Akira Kurosawa
Witness: Peter Weir Witness: Peter Weir

1984

Amadeus: Milos Forman Amadeus: Milos Forman+
Places in the Heart: Robert Benton Broadway Danny Rose: Woody Allen
A Soldier’s Story: Norman Jewison Places in the Heart: Robert Benton
The Killing Fields: Roland Joffé The Killing Fields: Roland Joffé
A Passage to India: David Lean A Passage to India: David Lean

1983

Terms of Endearment: James L. Brooks Terms of Endearment: James L. Brooks+
Tender Mercies: Bruce Beresford Tender Mercies: Bruce Beresford
Fanny and Alexander: Ingmar Bergman Fanny and Alexander: Ingmar Bergman
The Big Chill: Lawrence Kasdan Silkwood: Mike Nichols
The Right Stuff: Philip Kaufman The Dresser: Peter Yates

1982

Gandhi: Richard Attenborough Gandhi: Richard Attenborough+
An Officer and a Gentleman: Taylor Hackford The Verdict: Sidney Lumet
Das Boot: Wolfgang Petersen Das Boot: Wolfgang Petersen
Tootsie: Sydney Pollack Tootsie: Sydney Pollack
E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial: Steven Spielberg E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial: Steven Spielberg

1981

Reds: Warren Beatty Reds: Warren Beatty
Chariots of Fire: Hugh Hudson Chariots of Fire: Hugh Hudson+
Atlantic City: Louis Malle Atlantic City: Louis Malle
On Golden Pond: Mark Rydell On Golden Pond: Mark Rydell
Raiders of the Lost Ark: Steven Spielberg Raiders of the Lost Ark: Steven Spielberg

1980

Ordinary People: Robert Redford Ordinary People: Robert Redford+
The Elephant Man: David Lynch The Elephant Man: David Lynch
Coal Miner’s Daughter: Michael Apted Tess: Roman Polanski
The Stunt Man: Richard Rush The Stunt Man: Richard Rush
Raging Bull: Martin Scorsese Raging Bull: Martin Scorsese

1979

Kramer vs. Kramer: Robert Benton Kramer vs. Kramer: Robert Benton+
Manhattan: Woody Allen La cage aux folles: Edouard Molinaro
The China Syndrome: James Bridges All That Jazz: Bob Fosse
Apocalypse Now: Francis Ford Coppola Apocalypse Now: Francis Ford Coppola
Breaking Away: Peter Yates Breaking Away: Peter Yates

1978

The Deer Hunter: Michael Cimino The Deer Hunter: Michael Cimino+
An Unmarried Woman: Paul Mazursky Interiors: Woody Allen
Coming Home: Hal Ashby Coming Home: Hal Ashby
Heaven Can Wait: Warren Beatty, Buck Henry Heaven Can Wait: Warren Beatty, Buck Henry
Midnight Express: Alan Parker Midnight Express: Alan Parker

1977

Annie Hall: Woody Allen Annie Hall: Woody Allen+
Star Wars: George Lucas Star Wars: George Lucas
The Turning Point: Herbert Ross The Turning Point: Herbert Ross
Julia: Fred Zinnemann Julia: Fred Zinnemann
Close Encounters of the Third Kind: Steven Spielberg Close Encounters of the Third Kind: Steven Spielberg

1976

Rocky: John G. Avildsen Rocky: John G. Avildsen+
Taxi Driver: Martin Scorsese Face to Face: Ingmar Bergman
Network: Sidney Lumet Network: Sidney Lumet
All the President’s Men: Alan J. Pakula All the President’s Men: Alan J. Pakula
Seven Beauties: Lina Wertmüller Seven Beauties: Lina Wertmüller

1975

One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest: Milos Forman One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest: Milos Forman+
Nashville: Robert Altman
Nashville: Robert Altman
Jaws: Steven Spielberg Amarcord: Federico Fellini
Barry Lyndon: Stanley Kubrick Barry Lyndon: Stanley Kubrick
Dog Day Afternoon: Sidney Lumet Dog Day Afternoon: Sidney Lumet

1974

The Godfather: Part II: Francis Ford Coppola The Godfather: Part II: Francis Ford Coppola+
The Conversation: Francis Ford Coppola A Woman Under the Influence: John Cassavetes
Lenny: Bob Fosse Lenny: Bob Fosse
Chinatown: Roman Polanski Chinatown: Roman Polanski
Murder on the Orient Express: Sidney Lumet Day for Night: François Truffaut

1973

The Sting: George Roy Hill The Sting: George Roy Hill+
Last Tango in Paris: Bernardo Bertolucci Last Tango in Paris: Bernardo Bertolucci
The Exorcist: William Friedkin The Exorcist: William Friedkin
American Graffiti: George Lucas American Graffiti: George Lucas
Serpico: Sidney Lumet Cries & Whispers: Ingmar Bergman

1972

Cabaret: Bob Fosse Cabaret: Bob Fosse
Deliverance: John Boorman Deliverance: John Boorman
The Godfather: Francis Ford Coppola The Godfather: Francis Ford Coppola+
Sounder: Martin Ritt Sleuth: Joseph L. Mankiewicz
Slaughterhouse-Five: George Roy Hill The Emigrants: Jan Troell

1971

The French Connection: William Friedkin The French Connection: William Friedkin+
The Last Picture Show: Peter Bogdanovich The Last Picture Show: Peter Bogdanovich
Summer of ’42: Robert Mulligan Fiddler on the Roof: Norman Jewison
A Clockwork Orange: Stanley Kubrick A Clockwork Orange: Stanley Kubrick
Sunday Bloody Sunday: John Schlesinger Sunday Bloody Sunday: John Schlesinger

1970

Patton: Franklin J. Schaffner Patton: Franklin J. Schaffner
MASH: Robert Altman MASH: Robert Altman
Love Story: Arthur Hiller Love Story: Arthur Hiller
Ryan’s Daughter: David Lean Fellini Satyricon: Federico Fellini
Five Easy Pieces: Bob Rafelson Women in Love: Ken Russell

1969

Midnight Cowboy: John Schlesinger Midnight Cowboy: John Schlesinger
Z: Costa-Gavras Z: Costa-Gavras
Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid: George Roy Hill Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid: George Roy Hill
Easy Rider: Dennis Hopper Arthur Penn, Alice’s Restaurant
They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?: Sydney Pollack They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?: Sydney Pollack
Oh! What a Lovely War: Richard Attenborough
Hello, Dolly!: Gene Kelly
The Wild Bunch: Sam Peckinpah
Goodbye, Columbus: Larry Peerce
Medium Cool: Haskell Wexler

1968

Oliver!: Carol Reed Oliver!: Carol Reed
2001: A Space Odyssey: Stanley Kubrick 2001: A Space Odyssey: Stanley Kubrick
Rachel, Rachel: Paul Newman The Lion in Winter: Anthony Harvey
Funny Girl: William Wyler The Battle of Algiers: Gillo Pontecorvo
Isabel: Paul Almond
Closely Watched Trains: Jirí Menzel
Hello, Dolly!: Gene Kelly
Rosemary’s Baby: Roman Polanski
The Odd Couple: Gene Saks
Romeo and Juliet: Franco Zeffirelli Romeo and Juliet: Franco Zeffirelli

1967

The Graduate: Mike Nichols The Graduate: Mike Nichols
In Cold Blood: Richard Brooks In Cold Blood: Richard Brooks
In the Heat of the Night: Norman Jewison In the Heat of the Night: Norman Jewison+
Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner: Stanley Kramer Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner: Stanley Kramer
Bonnie and Clyde: Arthur Penn Bonnie and Clyde: Arthur Penn
The Dirty Dozen: Robert Aldrich
To Sir, with Love: James Clavell
Two for the Road: Stanley Donen
Cool Hand Luke: Stuart Rosenberg
Ulysses: Joseph Strick

1966

A Man for All Seasons: Fred Zinnemann A Man for All Seasons: Fred Zinnemann+
Grand Prix: John Frankenheimer Blow-Up: Michelangelo Antonioni
The Professionals: Richard Brooks The Professionals: Richard Brooks
Alfie: Lewis Gilbert*
Born Free: James Hill
The Russians Are Coming the Russians Are Coming: Norman Jewison*
A Man and a Woman: Claude Lelouch A Man and a Woman: Claude Lelouch
Georgy Girl: Silvio Narizzano
Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?: Mike Nichols Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?: Mike Nichols*
The Sand Pebbles: Robert Wise*

1965

The Sound of Music: Robert Wise+ The Sound of Music: Robert Wise+
The Ipcress File: Sidney J. Furie Doctor Zhivago: David Lean
The Pawnbroker: Sidney Lumet Woman in the Dunes: Hiroshi Teshigahara
Darling: John Schlesinger Darling: John Schlesinger
Cat Ballou: Elliot Silverstein The Collector: William Wyler

 

1964

My Fair Lady: George Cukor My Fair Lady: George Cukor+
The Night of the Iguana: John Huston Zorba the Greek: Mihalis Kakogiannis
Becket: Peter Glenville Becket: Peter Glenville
Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb: Stanley Kubrick Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb: Stanley Kubrick
Mary Poppins: Robert Stevenson Mary Poppins: Robert Stevenson

1963

Tom Jones: Tony Richardson Tom Jones: Tony Richardson
8½: Federico Fellini 8½: Federico Fellini
America, America: Elia Kazan America, America: Elia Kazan
Lilies of the Field: Ralph Nelsonk The Cardinal: Otto Preminger
Hud: Martin Ritt Hud: Martin Ritt

1962

Lawrence of Arabia: David Lean Lawrence of Arabia: David Lean+
Divorce Italian Style: Pietro Germi Divorce Italian Style: Pietro Germi
To Kill a Mockingbird: Robert Mulligan To Kill a Mockingbird: Robert Mulligan
The Miracle Worker: Arthur Penn The Miracle Worker: Arthur Penn
Birdman of Alcatraz: John Frankenheimer David and Lisa: Frank Perry
The Manchurian Candidate: John Frankenheimer
The Longest Day: Ken Annakin, Andrew Marton, Bernhard Wicki
Freud: John Huston
Lolita: Stanley Kubrick
Long Day’s Journey Into Night: Sidney Lumet
Billy Budd: Peter Ustinov
What Ever Happened to Baby Jane?: Robert Aldrich
The Music Man: Morton DaCosta
Mutiny on the Bounty: Lewis Milestone
Requiem for a Heavyweight: Ralph Nelson
A Taste of Honey: Tony Richardson

1961

West Side Story: Robert Wise West Side Story: Robert Wise, Jerome Robbins+
La Dolce Vita: Federico Fellini
Judgment at Nuremberg: Stanley Kramer Judgment at Nuremberg: Stanley Kramer*
The Hustler: Robert Rossen The Hustler: Robert Rossen*
The Guns of Navarone: J. Lee Thompson The Guns of Navarone: J. Lee Thompson*
Breakfast at Tiffany’s: Blake Edwards
One-Eyed Jacks: Marlon Brando
Pocketful of Miracles: Frank Capra
The Innocents: Jack Clayton
Summer and Smoke: Peter Glenville
The Misfits: John Huston
Splendor in the Grass: Elia Kazan
Flower Drum Song: Henry Koster
A Majority of One: Mervyn LeRoy
Hand in Hand: Philip Leacock
Fanny: Joshua Logan
El Cid: Anthony Mann
The Great Impostor: Robert Mulligan
A Raisin in the Sun: Daniel Petrie
The AbsentMinded Professor: Robert Stevenson
Romanoff and Juliet: Peter Ustinov
The Children’s Hour: William Wyler

1960

The Apartment: Billy Wilder The Apartment: Billy Wilder
Sons and Lovers: Jack Cardiff Sons and Lovers: Jack Cardiff
Bells Are Ringing: Vincente Minnelli
Never on Sunday: Jules Dassin
Psycho: Alfred Hitchcock Psycho: Alfred Hitchcock
The Sundowners: Fred Zinnemann The Sundowners: Fred Zinnemann
Elmer Gantry: Richard Brooks
Sunrise at Campobello: Vincent J. Donehue
Sink the Bismarck!: Lewis Gilbert
Can-Can: Walter Lang
The Dark at the Top of the Stairs: Delbert Mann
Home from the Hill: Vincente Minnelli
Our Man in Havana: Carol Reed
Hiroshima, mon amour: Alain Resnais
Please Don’t Eat the Daisies: Charles Walters

1959

Ben-Hur: William Wyler Ben-Hur: William Wyler
Anatomy of a Murder: Otto Preminger Room at the Top: Jack Clayton
The Diary of Anne Frank: George Stevens The Diary of Anne Frank: George Stevens
Some Like It Hot: Billy Wilder Some Like It Hot: Billy Wilder
The Nun’s Story: Fred Zinnemann The Nun’s Story: Fred Zinnemann
The Shaggy Dog: Charles Barton
A Hole in the Head: Frank Capra
Compulsion: Richard Fleischer
The Horse Soldiers: John Ford
Rio Bravo: Howard Hawks
North by Northwest: Alfred Hitchcock
Rally ‘Round the Flag, Boys!: Leo McCarey
Imitation of Life: Douglas Sirk

1958

Gigi: Vincente Minnelli Gigi: Vincente Minnelli
Cat on a Hot Tin Roof Cat on a Hot Tin Roof: Richard Brooks
The Defiant Ones: Stanley Kramer The Defiant Ones: Stanley Kramer
The Inn of the Sixth Happiness: Mark Robson The Inn of the Sixth Happiness: Mark Robson
I Want to Live!: Robert Wise I Want to Live!: Robert Wise
Damn Yankees!: George Abbott, Stanley Donen
The Brothers Karamazov: Richard Brooks
Cowboy: Delmer Daves
The Young Lions: Edward Dmytryk
The Vikings: Richard Fleischer
Vertigo: Alfred Hitchcock
The Long, Hot Summer: Martin Ritt
Teacher’s Pet: George Seaton
The Big Country: William Wyler

1957

The Bridge on the River Kwai: David Lean The Bridge on the River Kwai: David Lean
Les Girls: George Cukor Sayonara: Joshua Logan
12 Angry Men: Sidney Lumet 12 Angry Men: Sidney Lumet
Peyton Place: Mark Robson Peyton Place: Mark Robson
Witness for the Prosecution: Billy Wilder Witness for the Prosecution: Billy Wilder
Funny Face: Stanley Donen
The Great Man: José Ferrer
Heaven Knows, Mr. Allison: John Huston
A Face in the Crowd: Elia Kazan
The Pride and the Passion: Stanley Kramer
Men in War: Anthony Mann
An Affair to Remember: Leo McCarey
Fear Strikes Out: Robert Mulligan
Gunfight at the O.K. Corral: John Sturges
Love in the Afternoon: Billy Wilder
A Hatful of Rain: Fred Zinnemann

1956

Giant: George Stevens Giant: George Stevens
Around the World in Eighty Days: Michael Anderson Around the World in Eighty Days: Michael Anderson
The King and I: Walter Lang The King and I: Walter Lang
War and Peace: King Vidor War and Peace: King Vidor
Friendly Persuasion: William Wyler Friendly Persuasion: William Wyler
The Teahouse of the August Moon: Daniel Mann
The Searchers: John Ford
The Trouble with Harry: Alfred Hitchcock
The Man Who Knew Too Much: Alfred Hitchcock
The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit: Nunnally Johnson
Carousel: Henry King
Trapeze: Carol Reed
Alexander the Great: Robert Rossen
Meet Me in Las Vegas: Roy Rowland
The Eddy Duchin Story: George Sidney
Moby Dick: John Huston
Bus Stop: Joshua Logan
Somebody Up There Likes Me: Robert Wise

1955

Marty: Delbert Mann Marty: Delbert Mann
East of Eden: Elia Kazan East of Eden: Elia Kazan
Mister Roberts: John Ford, Mervyn LeRoy Summertime: David Lean
Picnic: Joshua Logan Picnic: Joshua Logan
Bad Day at Black Rock: John Sturges Bad Day at Black Rock: John Sturges
The Rose Tattoo: Daniel Mann
Blackboard Jungle: Richard Brooks
The Long Gray Line: John Ford
A Man Called Peter: Henry Koster
The Bridges at Toko-Ri: Mark Robson
Love Me or Leave Me: Charles Vidor
The Seven Year Itch: Billy Wilder

1954

On the Waterfront: Elia Kazan On the Waterfront: Elia Kazan
Rear Window: Alfred Hitchcock Rear Window: Alfred Hitchcock
The Country Girl: George Seaton The Country Girl: George Seaton
The High and the Mighty: William A. Wellman The High and the Mighty: William A. Wellman
Sabrina: Billy Wilder Sabrina: Billy Wilder
A Star Is Born: George Cukor
The Caine Mutiny: Edward Dmytryk
Seven Brides for Seven Brothers: Stanley Donen
Knock on Wood: Melvin Frank, Norman Panama
Hell and High Water: Samuel Fuller
Dial M for Murder: Alfred Hitchcock
King of the Khyber Rifles: Henry King
The Glenn Miller Story: Anthony Mann
Three Coins in the Fountain: Jean Negulesco
Riot in Cell Block 11: Don Siegel
Executive Suite: Robert Wise

1953

From Here to Eternity: Fred Zinnemann From Here to Eternity: Fred Zinnemann
Shane: George Stevens Shane: George Stevens
Lili: Charles Walters Lili: Charles Walters
Stalag 17: Billy Wilder Stalag 17: Billy Wilder
Roman Holiday: William Wyler Roman Holiday: William Wyler
Come Back Little Sheba: Daniel Mann
Above and Beyond: Melvin Frank, Norman Panama
The Robe: Henry Koster
Call Me Madam: Walter Lang
Julius Caesar: Joseph L. Mankiewicz
Titanic: Jean Negulesco
Young Bess: George Sidney

1953

The Quiet Man: John Ford The Quiet Man: John Ford
The Greatest Show on Earth: Cecil B. DeMille The Greatest Show on Earth: Cecil B. DeMille+
Pat and Mike: George Cukor Moulin Rouge: John Huston
5 Fingers: Joseph L. Mankiewicz 5 Fingers: Joseph L. Mankiewicz
High Noon: Fred Zinnemann High Noon: Fred Zinnemann
I’ll See You in My Dreams: Michael Curtiz
Singin’ in the Rain: Stanley Donen, Gene Kelly
My Six Convicts: Hugo Fregonese
The Big Sky: Howard Hawks
Viva Zapata!: Elia Kazan
The Snows of Kilimanjaro: Henry King
Rashomon: Akira Kurosawa
Pandora and the Flying Dutchman: Albert Lewin
The Bad and the Beautiful: Vincente Minnelli
Scaramouche: George Sidney
Ivanhoe: Richard Thorpe
Hans Christian Andersen: Charles Vidor

1952

A Place in the Sun: George Stevens A Place in the Sun: George Stevens
Strangers on a Train: Alfred Hitchcock The African Queen: John Huston
A Streetcar Named Desire: Elia Kazan A Streetcar Named Desire: Elia Kazan
An American in Paris: Vincente Minnelli An American in Paris: Vincente Minnelli+
Detective Story: William Wyler Detective Story: William Wyler
Death of a Salesman: Laslo Benedek
Cyrano de Bergerac: Michael Gordon
David and Bathsheba: Henry King
Quo Vadis: Mervyn LeRoy
Decision Before Dawn: Anatole Litvak
Show Boat: George Sidney
The Great Caruso: Richard Thorpe

1951

All About Eve: Joseph L. Mankiewicz All About Eve: Joseph L. Mankiewicz+
The Asphalt Jungle: John Huston Born Yesterday: George Cukor
Father’s Little Dividend: Vincente Minnelli The Asphalt Jungle: John Huston
The Third Man: Carol Reed
Sunset Blvd.: Billy Wilder Sunset Blvd.: Billy Wilder

1950

All the King’s Men: Robert Rossen All the King’s Men: Robert Rossen+
The Third Man: Carol Reed A Letter to Three Wives: Joseph L. Mankiewicz
Champion: Mark Robson The Fallen Idol: Carol Reed
Lost Boundaries: Alfred L. Werker Battleground: William A. Wellman
SuThe Heiress: William Wyler

1949

A Letter to Three Wives: Joseph L. Mankiewicz Hamlet: Laurence Olivier+
The Treasure of the Sierra Madre: John Huston
Red River: Howard Hawks The Search: Fred Zinnemann
The Snake Pit: Anatole Litvak The Snake Pit: Anatole Litvak
The Search: Fred Zinnemann Johnny Belinda: Jean Negulesco

+also won Best Picture

(best picture that didn’t match director)

2012
2011 Michel Hazanavicious, The Artist Michel Hazanavicious, The Artist+
2010 Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech+
2009 Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker+
2008 Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire+
2007 Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country+
2006 Martin Scorsese, The Departed Martin Scorsese, The Departed+
2005 Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain* (Crash+)
2004 Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby Clint Eastwood, MDB+
2003 Peter Jackson, Return of the King Peter Jackson, Return of the King+
2002 Rob Marshall, Chicago Roman Polanski, The Pianist (Chicago)
2001 Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind Ron Howard, A Beautiful Mind+
2000 Ang Lee, Crouching Tiger Steven Soderbergh, Traffic (Gladiator)
1999 Sam Mendes, American Beauty Sam Mendes, American Beauty+
1998 Steven Spielberg, Saving Private Ryan Steven Spielberg (Shakespeare in Love)
1997 Jim Cameron, Titanic Jim Cameron, Titanic+
1996 Anthony Minghella, English Patient Anthony Minghella, English Patient+
1995 Ron Howard, Apollo 13 Mel Gibson, Braveheart+
1994 Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump Robert Zemeckis, Forrest Gump+
1993 Seven Spielberg, Schindler’s List Steven Spielberg, Schindler’s List+
1992 Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven+
1991 Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs Jonathan Demme, Silence of the Lambs +
1990 Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves+
1989 Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July Oliver Stone, Born on the Fourth of July (Driving Miss Daisy – director Beresford not nommed for Oscar or DGA)
1988 Barry Levinson, Rain Man Barry Levinson, Rain Man+
1987 Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor Bernardo Bertolucci, Last Emperor+
1986 Oliver Stone, Platoon Oliver Stone, Platoon+
1985 Steven Spielberg, Color Purple Sidney Pollack, Out of Africa+
1984: Milos Forman, Amadeus Milos Forman, Amadeus+
1983: James Brooks, Terms of Endearment James Brooks, Terms of Endearment+
1982: Richard Attenborough, Gandhi Richard Attenborough, Gandhi+
1981: Warren Beatty, Reds Warren Beatty, Reds (Chariots of Fire)
1980: Robert Redford, Ordinary People Robert Redford, Ordinary People+
1979: Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer Robert Benton, Kramer Vs. Kramer+
1978: Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter Michael Cimino, Deer Hunter+
1977: Woody Allen, Annie Hall Woody Allen, Annie Hall+
1976: John Avildson, Rocky John Avildson, Rocky+
1975: Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest Milos Foreman, One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest+
1974: Frances Coppola, Godfather II Frances Coppola, Godfather II+
1973: George Roy Hill, The Sting George Roy Hill+
1972: Frances Coppola, The Godfather Bob Fosse, Cabaret (Godfather)
1971: William Friedkin, The French Connection William Friedkin, The French Connection+
1970: Franklin J. Schaffner, Patton Franklin J. Schaffner , Patton+
1969: John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy John Schlesinger, Midnight Cowboy+
1968: Anthony Harvey, Lion in Winter Carol Reed, Oliver+
1967: Mike Nichols, The Graduate Mike Nichols, The Graduate (In Heat of the Night)
1966: Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons Fred Zinneman, A Man for all Seasons+
1965: Robert Wise, The Sound of Music Robert Wise, the Sound of Music+
1964: George Cukor, My Fair Lady George Cukor, My Fair Lady+
1963: Tony Richardson, Tom Jones Tony Richardson, Tom Jones+
1962: David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia David Lean, Lawrence of Arabia+
1961: Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story Jerome Robbins, Robert Wise, West Side Story+
1960: Billy Wilder, The Apartment Billy Wilder, The Apartment+
1959: William Wyler, Ben Hur William Wyler, Ben Hur+
1958: Vincent Minnelli, Gigi Vincent Minnelli, Gigi+
1957: David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai David Lean, Bridge on the River Kwai+
1956: George Stevens, Giant George Stevens, Giant (Around/World in 80 Days)
1955: Delbert Mann, Marty Delbert Mann, Marty+
1954: Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront Elia Kazan, On the Waterfront+
1953: Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity Fred Zinnemann, From here to Eternity+
1952: John Ford, The Quiet Man John Ford, The Quiet Man (Greatest Show on Earth)
1951: George Stevens, A Place in the Sun George Stevens, A Place in the Sun (An American in Paris)
1950: Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve Joseph L. Mankiewicz, All About Eve+
1949: Robert Rossen, All the King’s Men Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives (All the King’s Men)
1948: Joseph L. Mankiewicz for A Letter To Three Wives John Huston, Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Hamlet)
1947 Elia Kaza for Gentleman’s Agreement
1946 William Wyler for The Best Years of Our Lives
1945 Billy Wilder for The Lost Weekend
1944 Leo McCary for Going My Way
1943 Michael Curtiz for Casablanca
1942 William Wyler for Mrs. Miniver
1941 John Ford for How Green Was My Valley
1940 John Ford for The Grapes of Wrath (Rebecca)
1939 Victor Flemming, Gone with the Wind
1938 Frank Capra, You Can’t Take it With You
1937 Leo McCary, The Awful Truth (The Life of Emile Zola)
1936 Frank Capra, Mr. Deed Goes to Town (The Great Ziegfeld)
1935 John Ford, The Informer (Mutiny on the Bounty)
1934 Frank Capra, It Happened One Night
1933 Frank Lloyd, Calvalcade

92 Comments on this Post

  1. McQueen made the important movie and would benefit more from the win than anyone else in the sense that recognition for African American filmmakers is lacking and needed.

    On the other hand Cuaron’s efforts is more impressive, to me. The sheer amount of creativity alone. He directed, edited, produced, and wrote a fantastic movie. For me, on merit, Cuaron takes it.

    I suppose it becomes the age old debate that plays out in other parts of our society about the role that race/gender etc should play in how we decide these things. I.e. Affirmative action in a way. Does it have space in art? It’s a question that’s very hotly contested outside of the context of art so it’s no surprise it creates such controversy here too.

    All that said, if I were to pick my favorite for Best Director at the Oscars I wouls hands down go for Marty, who delivers a masterpiece.

    But as between Cuaron and McQueen I would vote for McQueen. I so wish these two weren’t facing off against each other.

  2. Claudiu Dobre

    “There is a small minority of voters who pick Gravity at #1 and 12 Years at #2, but there are fewer, I’d say, who do it the opposite way. Generally speaking, those who put 12 Years at number one pick something like Wolf of Wall Street for 2.”

    Fantastic point and you just described my list (1.Slave, 2.Wolf, 3.Gravity – of the nominees). :)

    “Because it’s such a close year, we don’t even really know for sure if the DGA will determine Best Picture or not. It’s possible that Cuaron could win in a passion vote at the DGA and in the Best Director category at the Oscar but that the preferential ballot will reward the film that has the most broad support overall, and that would be 12 Years a Slave.
    I don’t know how to proceed since we’re seeing something we haven’t ever seen before, with a tie at the Producers Guild and two films vying for the big prize.”

    Tell that to Someone…

  3. Let’s not forget that Cuaron would be making film and academy history, as well. Tired of all the talk of “McQueen should win just because he’s black!” when Mexicans have been largely ignored, as well.

  4. Also, I hate this attitude that there’s something wrong with you if you vote for anyone other than McQueen. I LOVE 12 Years a Slave, but I’d vote for Cuaron in a heartbeat, and not because I’m racist. I just think it’s the better achievement.

  5. Kyle- as far as I can tell Hispanics of all origins have won a handful of below the line Oscars and a handful of supporting roles like Moreno, Cruz, Del Toro and Bardem.

    The number of nominated directors and producers across all categories is pitiful and limited mostly to the Mexican 3 in the last decade or so. A larger minority, but the number of wins is stunningly low.

    But, that said, if the point is that it’s about quality and no the origin of the maker, then this is irrelevant and in any case a wash in the context of this year.

  6. Cuaron deserves to win, he’s without any doubt the best director of the year.

  7. My gut feeling is pushing me toward predicting Steve McQueen. The DGA is not closely linked solely to the Oscar for Best Director but also to the Oscar for Best Picture, and the major groups have unanimously distributed to 12 Years a Slave an award for Best Picture: HFPA (despite it winning no other awards there), BFCA (despite Gravity winning seven there) and PGA (tying with Gravity, ofc, though Gravity’s a producer’s wet dream, so this win means more for 12 Years, which was the underdog in that fight). I feel the tide turning in 12 Years’ favour, and when that starts happening, groups like to follow suit. They did it after Christmas when it seemed like American Hustle would dominate the season due to its strong box office over that period – even the NSFC threw their weight behind it. I think they’ll do it now with 12 Years a Slave.

  8. Affirmative action in a way. Does it have space in art?

    What art? This is the Oscars!!

  9. Paddy- agreed, I think McQueen will win the oscar and 12 years BP.

    Regardless of whether the oscars (or the movies) are art or politics or both, it is not an easy question to resolve for people

  10. I am asking the DGA, where the hell is the most visionary filmmaker of the year, Spike Jonze?

    DGA has no business awarding the best directorial effort at all. They are giving their “Best Picture” prize just like other award bodies. That is why there is a high correlation between the BP winner and the DGA award winner.

  11. Bryce Forestieri

    I hope Alfonso Cuaron doesn’t win this time, but certainly hope he wins in the future. Too much disrespect will ensue.

    I’m going to predict David O. Russell

  12. The real question is how was The Sound of Music remake nominated for a DGA??!?

    I’m predicting Cuaron. The industry support is palpable. He’s winning all the things that Ang Lee didn’t even get last year on his way to the Oscar with Affleck as his competition.

    Problems I had with Slave, which I didn’t think were major at the time, have grown on me. Especially compared to some of the other bold or tight films like Wolf and Hustle. I would attribute Slave’s flaws mostly to the screenplay, with it’s thinly defined characters, but others disagree and blame McQueen for his long takes. It would be weird to see Slave win Picture without actor, but it’s been happening so far. Still, I’m calling Cuaron for this one.

  13. ObamaWins

    This notion of “McQueen will only win because he is black”. Only racists say that, pure and simple.

  14. ObamaWins

    Everybody is saying Cuaron. Something tells McQueen is going to pull a Tom Hooper or Havanvicious.

  15. And here’s the real $64,000 question — when’s the last time that a Best Picture’s only other major wins were Screenplay and a supporting award? That’s not a terrible combo, but even in prior split years with Argo and Crash, they won Screenplay and Editing. No acting wins, but both had SAG, both were actor-friendly, and Editing is often more of a Best Picture award than a supporting trophy is.

    Gladiator won nothing major besides Picture, but it still had 4 total wins and more tech support. Now I know Gravity won’t be winning Actress or Screenplay obviously, but if it cleans up the techs, it’s looking good. Then again Cabaret cleaned up the techs and Directing and Editing and two acting awards, but still lost to The Godfather, which had all the support it needed with wins for its script and Brando. Maybe Slave doesn’t need the big Lead Actor/director/editing win to topple Gravity with all its below-the-line wins and just one major win for Director.

  16. Correction: Gladiator had 5 wins in total.

  17. Zach – Gladiator won Best Actor which is a major award.

  18. Every BP winner has won at least one major award. Gravity should win director or best actress.

  19. Right, and it led with the most wins, but that was its only win. And yet Traffic had 4 above-the-line wins, 3 of them certainly major, but that wasn’t enough. So throw out the rulebook. Slave is still getting Screenplay and Lupita. Gravity is getting techs including Editing, and Director if it’s lucky.

  20. Brian Susbielles

    I got Cuaron. If not, McQueen. Russell is the dark horse, but his seemed easier to shoot rather than the other two movies.

  21. JPNS Viewer

    Thanks for embedding, Sasha.

    (I’ve made this a spur-of-the-moment comment; so, it was sort of tentatively put.)
    According to the exposition shown in the clip, I feel bad for C and B, already. And in relation to DGA, if Sasha’s relatively experienced pro-“presumption” is correct, then even though I am supporting Dave O. Russell for the being [not that my part as O. Russell column has anything to do with the race], I can’t see him win the race using this method (based upon certain elements of my own notion). : (

    For now, it looks like a sole competition between McQueen and Cuaron. (But I might be wrong. And Dave might prevail. We’ll see.)

    Note: Sasha, thanks for the chart, as well. Apparently, in general DGA is more predictable and constant in a sense than the Academy.

  22. If I were a DGA member, I would vote for Marty.

  23. JPNS Viewer

    “. . . then even though I am supporting Dave O. Russell for #the being# [not that my part as O. Russell column has anything to do with the race] . . . .”

    Correction: . . . for the time being . . . .

    “(But I might be wrong. And Dave might prevail. We’ll see.)”

    Addition: (But I might be wrong. And Dave, or perhaps Marty, might prevail. We’ll see.)

    [Sorry for a redundant post here]

  24. Sasha, I believe you meant to put Alexander Payne in your chart for this year. Greengrass was not nominated for the Best Director Oscar.

    This really seems to be Cuaron’s to lose and I certainly hope they give it to him. He’s truly the most deserving. If that happens, it could well end up being Gravity that takes Best Picture (the film that wins the DGA takes BP most of the time).

  25. Steve McQueen for DGA. I don’t see Russell as a dark horse at all.

  26. Sasha- interesting article at Gold Derby and how the Academy said there WON’T be a tie for Best Picture and it list out what will happen if there is a tie. Should there be a tie I think “12 Years” wins as I would suspect it would have more #1 votes. Just my opinion…

  27. Shouldn’t the members be voting on which achievement they believe is the best artistic effort, not which is most culturally “important” or politically “correct?”

  28. Yes, Mike. They should. But they won’t.

  29. I have a hunch the DGA will pick Alfonso Cuaron for “Gravity” this year.

    Just a hunch.

  30. ObamaWins

    @Mike, So voting for McQueen is voting for poltical correctness? Why? Beacuse he is black??

  31. @ObamaWins, it’s Sasha who is making the case that McQueen should win because he’s black not Mike.

    I think Cuaron is the most deserving and then I would pick Marty.

  32. I grow more skeptical of a BP/BD split. If Gravity runs the table in the techs and wins BD, how can it miss BP? Assuming it misses with Bullock, it could win 8 but not Best Picture?

  33. filmchick

    If the right hand 2013 column is supposed to reflect OSCAR nominees for Best Director, you need to swap out Paul Greengrass’s name for Alexander Payne.

    And I also have my fingers crossed for a McQueen victory at DGA!

  34. Profile photo of Ryan Adams

    Thanks to everyone pointing out the absence of Alexander Payne. Fixed now.

  35. Al Robinson

    Sasha, Ryan,

    I hate to bring this up, especially since I don’t care if you pick one of mine, but what is the latest with you guys picking the best Haiku from last week? I only ask because I am excited to find out who won, and what they wrote.

    Awaiting patiently,

    Al Robinson

  36. Jerry Grant

    I am beginning to think more seriously about McQueen taking this. Why? Because at this point a clear 12 Years-Gravity rivalry is forming, and I think that changes the way people vote. Generally, I suspect there is slightly more support for 12 Years for BP than for Gravity, and I deduce voting will now start to split along *those* lines rather than more honest merit-based lines. I think Cuaron would have definitely won were this a week ago, but now I think it’s closer to a split…

  37. Jerry Grant

    Also the slogan for AwardsDaily on mobile devices is (still) misspelled, “Foreget it, Jake…”

  38. I have nothing but respect for “12 Years a Slave”, but for me, nothing matches “Gravity” this year. This film, along with “Her”, was the most innovative work this year. I’ve never seen a film that is so intimate yet epic in it’s scope simultaneously. The fact that this has 97% on RT and almost 700 million worldwide is really something to behold. A rare critical and commercial success.

    No “blockbuster” has had this type of critical reception. Either way, the Academy will make history, and I hope it’s by awarding the first “Sci-Fi” film. If there were a split, I would rather have McQueen as director, and “Gravity” as best picture. Both are deserving, so at least we know the Academy will make a great choice this year (unless it’s American Hustle).

  39. Oh, and I predict Cuarón for the DGA. I think it actually won’t even be close, but who knows.

  40. Al Robinson

    KB,

    I agree with you. If it were a split, I too would rather see McQueen for Director, and Gravity for Picture. But, I can also live with O. Russell winning both Picture and Director. It is what it is.

    But, overall, I have officially come to my own conclusion that I would prefer (in my perfect world) to see Martin Scorsese win Best Director and The Wolf of Wall Street win Best Picture.

  41. Pierre de Plume

    I keep reading how great Cuaron is with the implication that McQueen’s achievement isn’t as great. I disagree. These are different types of achievements. A failure to see this distinction can lead one to believe that a McQueen win would be for political correctness.

    I don’t buy that. When others say they see flaws in McQueen’s long takes, for example, I see artistry.

    Cuaron’s artistry is rooted in innovative craft as applied to storytelling. He may very well win, and his likability and relative comfort in the Hollywood colony are strong factors here.

    However, I’ll predict McQueen because the DGA sometimes goes its own way and also because it’s too easy and convenient for prognosticators to predict a split.

  42. SmartGuy

    Cuaron should win this award easily. McQueen isn’t even close in the terms of BEST DIRECTING. But he may win. He’s black and they may think that this is time to reward black director (as Sasha clearly thinks).

    But that’s not the best way to judge director’s achievement, saying that he SHOULD win because he’s not white. I’d even say that it’s unfair and RACIST. You look at the man and say that ‘we should reward him, he’s black, black people never win, let’s give it to him, this would wipe out our white guilt and then we may forget about all bad things we have done because no one could say anymore that we’re racist’. Then all talk about racism suddenly collapses – not because there is no more racism in the world – but because white people would feel that their guilt is forgotten. They made their atonement.

  43. SmartGuy

    @ObamaWins: Hazanavicius was a favourite to win and Hooper was hardly a suprise after “The King’s Speech” took PGA and SAG. But I feel too that McQueen will take it. Not because he deserves it (because Cuaron is the best, that’s obvious) but because of… well, other reasons.

  44. SmartGuy

    Oh, and if Cuaron wins… Well, since PGA exists movies that won PGA and DGA has lost only three times: two times to SAG winner (“Shakespeare in Love” and “Crash”) and there was this extremely bizzarre year of “Apollo 13″ which won’t repeat this year. So I don’t see how “Gravity” could lose to “12YaS”. To “American Hustle”? Yes, probable, but not to “12YaS”.

    If “12YaS” wants to win it has to take DGA and then “best director”.

  45. “smartguy” have you even seen 12YAS? I totally understand your support for Gravity and Cuaron as I watched the film with him and Sandra at TIFF. Amazing film making achievement. But I sense that you’re a person filmly in the anti-12YAS camp and someone who hasn’t seen the film to judge it fairly.

    I really question anyone’s objectivity of supporting one film and director over another especially if they haven’t seen the film made by ‘that black guy’.

    Am I wrong?

  46. ObamaWins

    Smartguy. You said you hope the votere won’t vote based on race. So if McQueen wins, that means theu voted because he is black? Not because of his talent? That is racism and defensive. If a black person is successful, there has to be a reason other than he earned it or someone must have helped him?? Stop being a racist an stop making offensive remarks and pretend you are fair.

  47. ObamaWins

    @Hera. This has nothing to do with Sasha. It is the people who think rewarding McQueen is rewarding his race. It is offensive and racist.

  48. ObamaWins

    @smartguy. 12 Years doesn’t need DGA to win Best Picture. You try yo find past scenarios that are convinient to you and pretend “It can’t happen”. I am so tired of set rules set by Cuaron fans. Guavity’s lack of screenplay and its being sci fi hurt the film and its probably will make Cuaron’s possible DGA win irrelevant.

  49. I’ve changed my prediction on this one so many times between Cuaron and McQueen that I don’t remember what I finally said. I’ll probably do it at least twice more before Saturday.

    While a Cuaron win at the DGA would not surprise me, I now expect McQueen/12 Years to take the Oscars BD and BP. Yes, Oscar and the DGA seldom differ, but the likeable and familiar Cuaron could take the “boy’s club” award while the academy (breaks tradition) and actually goes the best.

    The only way there will be a split between BD and BP is if the Academy somehow loses its shit over American Hustle. There is no way they’ll award DOR over Cuaron or McQueen, too.

    And that’s why my predictions are always fucked.

  50. The DGA is a director’s award but looking at their voting history, looks to me it’s who they think made the best film gets it. I’m guessing that they have 12YAS as their best film so McQueen gets it.

  51. ObamaWins

    I hope you are right, gmitran.

  52. Robin Write

    I love looking at the comparison lists over the years. I get a little bit hooked and want to write a book on it. Apologies potentially for the following post.

    Some interesting preferences reflected over the years though between the Guild and the Academy:

    # Thanks to their TV / Commercial credits respectively it would be unfair to compare now, but you could say the Director’s Guild like Tom Hooper {two DGA noms and one Win against one Oscar Nomination and one Win} and David Fincher {three DGA noms; two Oscar noms} more than the Academy do.

    # Christopher Nolan has three DGA nominations. For Memento, The Dark Knight, both failed to make the Best Picture / Director Oscar nominations, and Inception, nomination for Best Picture but snubbed for Director. I susepct Inception would not have made the cut had the number of nomination been extended – which is tragic. The same said for the chances of the former two for Picture had the list been extended then. All three great movies.

    # Cameron Crowe has two DGA noms, but the Academy have never nominated him as a Director. He won Screenplay for Almost Famous so I am sure he is not too sad about it.

    # Frank Darabont also has two DGA noms, for The Shawshank Redemption and The Green Mile – both also making Best Picture list but not for Director.

    # Steven Spielberg has eleven DGA nominations and a Lifetime Achievement Award from the Guild. The Academy only nominated him seven times {I say only!}, but did give him the Thalberg Award even before he had won a Director prize at the Oscars. Amistad, Empire of the Sun, The Color Purple, and Jaws were the corresponding DGA nods missed by the Academy.

    # Ron Howard has four nods from DGA and two wins, as opposed to two Oscar nods and one win. The first of those DGA wins was Apollo 13, were the Academy famously failed to even acknowledge him. The Guild also merritted him a nomination for Cocoon.

    # Ang Lee has four DGA nominations: for Sense and Sensibilty {no Directing Oscar nomination but a Picture nod}, won for Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon {Picture and Director nominated at the Oscars}, won also for Brokeback Mountain {and at the Oscars, but not Picture}, and also nominated for Life Of Pi {won Director Oscar again, but not Picture again}. Has any director ever won two Oscars for Director without Picture? Has any director won two Guilds and two Oscars but for different movies?

    # Rob Reiner has three DGA nominations, which might surprise most, for A Few Good Men, When Harry Met Sally, and Stand By Me. Oscar nominations? None.

    # James L Brooks also has three DGA nominations. His Oscar record for Directing though is one for one with Terms Of Endearment. His other two DGA nods {Broadcast News and As Good As It Gets} made the Picture list with the Academy but failed to grant him a Director slot.

    Those are not necessarily Guild favourites, but it makes you think. On the flip side then it appears the Academy like three particular directors more than the Guild do:

    # Robert Altman with five Oscar nominations {and an Honourary Award} over three DGA nominations – they failed to recognise Short Cuts and Gosford Park, but did give him a Lifetime Achievement Award.

    # David Lynch has only a sinlge DGA nomination {for Elephant Man}, yet the Academy nominated him on three occasions for Director {also for Blue Velvet and Mulholland Drive}.

    # Stephen Daldry’s record with the Academy is bizarre. His four feature films have all made Picture and/or Director nominations. The Hours and The Reader both; Billy Elliot just Director; Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close just Picture. He had only made the DGA list once though, for The Hours.

    Something to digest…

  53. McQueen isn’t even close in the terms of BEST DIRECTING. But he may win. He’s black and they may think that this is time to reward black director

    Absolutely. This year is like a redux of the year 2009 when Kathryn Bigelow won. The DGA is looking at this year as another “it’s time for…” year. They’re not gonna pass up the opportunity to award a black director, even though clearly he didn’t do the best directing job of the year. How anyone can see The Wolf of Wall Street and not consider it the best film of the year is beyond me. I’m not even a Scorcese fan, and I normally can’t stand Leo DiCaprio. But my goodness, what an amazing feat for both Scorcese and DiCaprio.

  54. @bd74 “They’re not gonna pass up the opportunity to award a black director, even though clearly he didn’t do the best directing job of the year.”

    That is your opinion, and brace yourself for a McQueen win.

  55. ObamaWins

    “McQueen isn’t even close in the terms of BEST DIRECTING. But he may win. He’s black and they may think that this is time to reward black director”
    It is a matter of opinion whether his direction is the best or not. So if he wins, that is because he is black?
    That is offensive and very racist, bd74. You suck.

  56. My problem with that voting system is that a film could receive a small number of first round votes and be eliminated, even if every single other voter had that title listed as their #2 choice.

    Pretend 12YAS received 1 #1 vote but 6,000 #2 votes, meanwhile every other best pic nominee was fairly evenly divided, with no overwhelming leader. 12YAS would already be tossed out despite it having the most broad support.

  57. Robert A.

    “Pretend 12YAS received 1 #1 vote…”

    You mean Unlikely Hood’s friend was the only AMPAS member who voted for 12 Years a Slave? Is Unlikely Hood’s friend Brad Pitt?

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