One of the of the things Gravity will have to overcome is its lack of screenplay nomination. That’s not particularly surprising for an effects-driven film, a mood piece. Films with very little dialogue often don’t get acknowledged for screenplay, like Tree of Life. When it comes to winners, though, in all of Oscar history, only once did a film win Best Picture in a split year without a screenplay nomination. Of course, this is all moot if Gravity wins Best Picture and Best Director. This rule only applies for the rare splits, which have, without exception (unless you count last year), been mostly surprises. I wanted to take a look at the splits and how they divided with Screenplay over the years. Turns out, in every split year except one, both films that won Picture or Director had a Screenplay nomination, or a screenplay win. One of the things I noticed looking back was that Best Pictures winners in a split were more likely to win in the screenplay category. Films that won director and screenplay and not picture happened, just not as often.
Let’s build a chart, shall we?
The DGA Awards
won DGA | won Oscar
*film nominated/+ won Best Picture at the Oscars
You can count last year if you’d like because it still applies, but me, I can’t count last year simply because it was forced. The voters didn’t choose to split the vote as Argo was way in the lead long before the Oscars were held. But even still, screenplay noms for both films.
2012
Adapted winner | Argo (won Picture) |
Adapted nominee | Life of Pi (Director) |
2005
Original winner | Crash (won Picture) |
Adapted winner | Brokeback Mountain (Director) |
2002
Adapted nominee | Chicago (won Picture) |
Adapted winner | The Pianist (Director) |
2000
Original nominee | Gladiator (Picture) |
Original winner | Traffic (won Director) |
1998
Original winner | Shakespeare in Love (won Picture) |
Original Nominee | Saving Private Ryan (Director) |
1989
Adapted winner | Driving Miss Daisy (won Picture) |
Adapted Nominee | Born on the 4th of July (won Director) |
1981
Original winner | Chariots of Fire (won Picture) |
Original Nominee | Reds (Director) |
1972
Adapted winner | The Godfather (won Picture) |
Adapted Nominee | Cabaret (Director) |
1967
Adapted winner | In the Heat of the Night (won Picture) |
Adapted Nominee | The Graduate (Director) |
1956
Adapted winner | Around the World in 80 Days (won Picture) |
Adapted Nominee | Giant (Director) |
1953
Best Writing, Motion Picture Story | Greatest Show on Earth (won Picture) |
Best Writing, Screenplay nominee | The Quiet Man (Director) |
1952
Best Writing, Story and Screenplay | An American in Paris (won Picture) |
Best Writing, Screenplay winner | A Place in the Sun (Director) |
1950
Best Writing, Screenplay nominee | All the King’s Men (won Picture) |
Best Writing, Screenplay winner | A Letter to Three Wives (Director) |
1949
Hamlet (won Picture) | |
Best Writing, Screenplay winner | Treasure of the Sierra Madre (Director) |
1940
Adapted nominee | Rebecca (won Picture) |
Adapted nominee | John Ford, Grapes of Wrath (Director) |
1937
Adapted winner | The Life of Emile Zola (won Picture) |
Adapted nominee | Leo McCary, The Awful Truth (Director) |
1937
Best Writing, Original Story nominee | The Great Ziegfield (won Picture) |
Adapted nominee | Frank Capra, Mr. Deed Goes to Town (Director) |
1937
Adapted nominee | Mutiny on the Bounty (won Picture) |
Adapted winner | John Ford, The Informer(Director) |
I think frankly a logical and respectable starting point of Oscar rebuilding trust with the public is to go back to awarding the most nominated film best picture is it really that hard Oscar? Where it warranted that is..
There’s no question that the nominations were a very good sign for Gravity (and American Hustle) and a rather bad one for 12 Years a Slave. I never disputed that. But that’s just one of many, many factors to consider this season. Overall, these factors tend to indicate Gravity is unlikely to win Best Picture, though not by so much.
Titanic didn’t have any strong contenders to worry about, like Gravity does. It had won the DGA and PGA, while the SAG winner (The Full Monty) was missing a Best Editing nomination and had also missed out on PGA and DGA nominations. It was clearly one of those SAG winners that are meaningless to the Best Picture race. And the two movies that hadn’t missed out on any critical nominations (Good Will Hunting and L.A. Confidential) had (obviously) not won any of the guilds, therefore proving that they didn’t have any support from the industry for the win. It’s debatable, but I wouldn’t say it was a very close race and I didn’t include it. Maybe I should have, which would lower my percentage to 75% instead of 85%, which would still make it a rather good bet that nothing will dominate this year.
Claudiu – I agree that Gravity will not (can not) win all the techies.
Gustavo – Sandra Bullock’s Best Actress nomination is very critical for a sci-fi, blockbuster or mainstream (whatever you call it) movie. Titanic would not have been able to win without Kate Winslet’s Best Actress nod.
OK – thanks for solving it! You didn’t have to post both of them, though… 🙂
Tried posting it again – didn’t help…
I’m sorry you feel like we have this personal little war of opinions going on… I, for one, have nothing personal against you, but am rather simply combating some of the ideas you’ve been expressing. In any case, you’re quite wrong about this one.
Perhaps I wasn’t explicit enough with my train of thought, that I’ll give you, so I’ll try to do so now. Here’s what my thesis was (based on the stats provided, which can be checked by anyone): In 6/7 years where the Best Picture situation wasn’t clarified after the guild awards, no movie won significantly more awards than the rest (a.k.a. dominated the Oscars). Therefore, it is unlikely (to a degree on which everyone can decide for themselves, based on the numbers) that it will happen this year. Not impossible, just unlikely.
Now, Gravity is the (rather significant) favorite for Best Director plus 5 other categories, according to the pundits – see various sites for the breakdown. Therefore, if Gravity were to win all of those plus Best Picture, that would make it seven Oscars. Given what the favorites are in the remaining categories, it then seems unlikely that anything else would come away with more than 2, maybe 3 awards – a few major surprises would have to happen (correct me if I’m wrong). This would mean total domination from Gravity. Even if Gravity only wins BP, and not BP+BD, for 6 Oscars, that would mean the same thing, because 12 Years a Slave, the closest competitor, would theoretically only have 3 – a probable Best Director award, plus Supporting Actress and Screenplay. What I’m saying is, because of the stat I gave, this scenario now seems unlikely to me.
However (and this is where I launched into some speculation that I probably shouldn’t have done, for the sake of keeping it simple), I too (like Sasha) think Gravity will most likely not win ALL of the tech awards it’s favored to win right now. In this case, a Gravity BP (and even BP+BD) win would be more plausible, because it would come with a total tally of, most likely, only 5 Oscars, as opposed to 3 or maybe even 4 for 12 Years a Slave or, perhaps, American Hustle. I also think this scenario is unlikely, though, because that would mean either 12 Years or AH would have to overperform (to get to a total of 3 or 4) for no apparent reason, since Gravity would be the one getting Best Picture. Plus, to get under 6 awards and still win BP, Gravity would probably have to lose Best Director, which I think is highly unlikely if it wins BP, after all of the precursors Cuaron has been hitting. But it could happen.
I know it sounds counter-intuitive to say Gravity needs to win fewer Oscars in order to have a better chance at winning Best Picture – doesn’t mean it’s not true! So don’t dismiss it just because it doesn’t make sense TO YOU… That’s what I get from the aforementioned stat, I believe it’s a rational-enough conclusion and I’m sticking with it!
Now, apparently, you also have a problem with the Hurt Locker example. You think winning 6 Oscars and the movie to win the next-most (Avatar) being at only 3 isn’t domination? 6-4 I can understand (and if that ends up happening with, say, Gravity vs. 12 Years, then I wouldn’t really consider it domination), but 6-3 is clearly not even close. I don’t think 6-4 is domination, but I do think 6-3 is. If you have other ideas, like I said, you’re welcome to try and improve on the methods I used to interpret the stats. But don’t say they make no sense! They make perfect sense, even though better definitions might (and probably do) exist.
“So, when you say Gravity can manage to win like 6 Oscars without BD (6 out of 10) how that doesn’t qualify as dominating?” – as explained above, if Gravity wins 6, I feel like something has to get at least 4 in order to avoid being truly dominated.
“I don’t get it, it seems like nobody should win anything according to your numbers” – see, that just proves you have no idea what you’re talking about. According to my numbers, I’m saying I don’t think Gravity will win Best Picture and 5-6 more Oscars (because I can’t see anything getting to 4 in that scenario and because domination is unlikely), but it could win Best Picture and 4 other Oscars (or fewer), with something else winning 3, which again seems unlikely for reasons already stated. Either AH or 12 Years can still easily win Best Picture, because they’re not favorites to win a lot of awards overall and, in consequence, won’t have dominated the show if they did. Even if they lost Best Director to Gravity, they could still win and rather easily make it to 4, in which case Gravity’s possible 6 wouldn’t be a dominant tally (especially without BP), or they could even win with a total of 3, if Gravity were to lose 2 of the techs, thus only getting to a not so impressive 5.
So, like I said, I was just speculating on various scenarios (that, if you were paying attention to what I just wrote, you will now know DO make sense) based on the idea (which I put forward based on the stat I came up with) that it was unlikely for any one movie to get significantly more awards than all of the others this year – and also working on the assumption that Gravity would be the only one that could really ever threaten to do that, based on the many tech awards it’s a favorite to win. And my conclusion was that I couldn’t really see as many likely scenarios in which Gravity won Best Picture as those in which one of the other two main contenders did. It’s not written in stone, it’s just my interpretation.
I, for one, believe it’s most likely that either 12 Years a Slave or American Hustle will take Best Picture, while Gravity will probably get 4-5 Oscars (either with or without Best Director being among them), which has been a pretty standard tally for visual-effects driven action movies in the past (see Terminator 2, The Matrix, Inception and probably others – these are just examples). Thus, no one movie will dominate the night. But, like I said, you can draw your own conclusions and think up your own scenarios, you don’t have to adhere to mine. Just don’t needlessly insult me by saying I make no sense…
Now, I’m sorry, if you still don’t get it after all that, you’re just going to have to deal with it on your own. I can’t be more explicit than that. Others probably could, but I don’t have the didactic skills for it.
“Your comment is awaiting moderation.” It’s been hours. What’s the matter?
I’m sorry you feel like we have this personal little war of opinions going on… I, for one, have nothing personal against you, but am rather simply combating some of the ideas you’ve been expressing. In any case, you’re quite wrong about this one.
Perhaps I wasn’t explicit enough with my train of thought, that I’ll give you, so I’ll try to do so now. Here’s what my thesis was (based on the stats provided, which can be checked by anyone): In 6/7 years where the Best Picture situation wasn’t clarified after the guild awards, no movie won significantly more awards than the rest (a.k.a. dominated the Oscars). Therefore, it is unlikely (to a degree on which everyone can decide for themselves, based on the numbers) that it will happen this year. Not impossible, just unlikely.
Now, Gravity is the (rather significant) favorite for Best Director plus 5 other categories, according to the pundits – see various sites for the breakdown. Therefore, if Gravity were to win all of those plus Best Picture, that would make it seven Oscars. Given what the favorites are in the remaining categories, it then seems unlikely that anything else would come away with more than 2, maybe 3 awards – a few major surprises would have to happen (correct me if I’m wrong). This would mean total domination from Gravity. Even if Gravity only wins BP, and not BP+BD, for 6 Oscars, that would mean the same thing, because 12 Years a Slave, the closest competitor, would theoretically only have 3 – a probable Best Director award, plus Supporting Actress and Screenplay. What I’m saying is, because of the stat I gave, this scenario now seems unlikely to me.
However (and this is where I launched into some speculation that I probably shouldn’t have done, for the sake of keeping it simple), I too (like Sasha) think Gravity will most likely not win ALL of the tech awards it’s favored to win right now. In this case, a Gravity BP (and even BP+BD) win would be more plausible, because it would come with a total tally of, most likely, only 5 Oscars, as opposed to 3 or maybe even 4 for 12 Years a Slave or, perhaps, American Hustle. I also think this scenario is unlikely, though, because that would mean either 12 Years or AH would have to overperform (to get to a total of 3 or 4) for no apparent reason, since Gravity would be the one getting Best Picture. Plus, to get under 6 awards and still win BP, Gravity would probably have to lose Best Director, which I think is highly unlikely if it wins BP, after all of the precursors Cuaron has been hitting. But it could happen.
I know it sounds counter-intuitive to say Gravity needs to win fewer Oscars in order to have a better chance at winning Best Picture – doesn’t mean it’s not true! So don’t dismiss it just because it doesn’t make sense TO YOU… That’s what I get from the aforementioned stat, I believe it’s a rational-enough conclusion and I’m sticking with it!
Now, apparently, you also have a problem with the Hurt Locker example. You think winning 6 Oscars and the movie to win the next-most (Avatar) being at only 3 isn’t domination? 6-4 I can understand (and if that ends up happening with, say, Gravity vs. 12 Years, then I wouldn’t really consider it domination), but 6-3 is clearly not even close. I don’t think 6-4 is domination, but I do think 6-3 is. If you have other ideas, like I said, you’re welcome to try and improve on the methods I used to interpret the stats. But don’t say they make no sense! They make perfect sense, even though better definitions might (and probably do) exist.
“So, when you say Gravity can manage to win like 6 Oscars without BD (6 out of 10) how that doesn’t qualify as dominating?” – as explained above, if Gravity wins 6, I feel like something has to get at least 4 in order to avoid being truly dominated.
“I don’t get it, it seems like nobody should win anything according to your numbers” – see, that just proves you have no idea what you’re talking about. According to my numbers, I’m saying I don’t think Gravity will win Best Picture and 5-6 more Oscars (because I can’t see anything getting to 4 in that scenario and because domination is unlikely), but it could win Best Picture and 4 other Oscars (or fewer), with something else winning 3, which again seems unlikely for reasons already stated. Either AH or 12 Years can still easily win Best Picture, because they’re not favorites to win a lot of awards overall and, in consequence, won’t have dominated the show if they did. Even if they lost Best Director to Gravity, they could still win and rather easily make it to 4, in which case Gravity’s possible 6 wouldn’t be a dominant tally (especially without BP), or they could even win with a total of 3, if Gravity were to lose 2 of the techs, thus only getting to a not so impressive 5.
So, like I said, I was just speculating on various scenarios (that, if you were paying attention to what I just wrote, you will now know DO make sense) based on the idea (which I put forward based on the stat I came up with) that it was unlikely for any one movie to get significantly more awards than all of the others this year – and also working on the assumption that Gravity would be the only one that could really ever threaten to do that, based on the many tech awards it’s a favorite to win. And my conclusion was that I couldn’t really see as many likely scenarios in which Gravity won Best Picture as those in which one of the other two main contenders did. It’s not written in stone, it’s just my interpretation.
I, for one, believe it’s most likely that either 12 Years a Slave or American Hustle will take Best Picture, while Gravity will probably get 4-5 Oscars (either with or without Best Director being among them), which has been a pretty standard tally for visual-effects driven action movies in the past (see Terminator 2, The Matrix, Inception and probably others – these are just examples). Thus, no one movie will dominate the night. But, like I said, you can draw your own conclusions and think up your own scenarios, you don’t have to adhere to mine. Just don’t needlessly insult me by saying I make no sense…
Now, I’m sorry, if you still don’t get it after all that, you’re just going to have to deal with it on your own. I can’t be more explicit than that. Others probably could, but I don’t have the didactic skills for it.
And then there are some years, like 1971, where you get a stupendous, magnificent screenplay by Paddy Cheyefsky (“The Hospital”) which deservedly won the Best Original Screenplay Oscar. The film itself, however, failed to get a Best Director (Arthur Hiller) or Best Picture nod that year. Thankfully, George C. Scott got a Best Actor nomination and probably would have won that year had he not got it the year before for “Patton”. Also, AMPAS was just itching to give Gene Hackman an award that year.
Nowadays, I think a screenplay nomination is pretty much essential for AMPAS to vote it Best Picture. So, sorry all you “Gravity” fans, I don’t think it’s going to happen. Cuoron may get the Director Oscar, but I think the general AMPAS membership will tip towards 12 Years a Slave.
“The Hurt Locker won 6 out of 9.”
That reminds me. I have a very rare DVD of the Hurt Locker, where is says on the cover “nominated for 9 Academy Awards”. That version was out in mu country for a very short period of time and was quickly switched for one with “winner of 6 Academy Awards”. I’m pretty proud of my edition, I don’t know why 🙂
@Edkargir@aol.com
Hey, it’s your right to hate that movie, but I’m just saying (and not only me as I see) that I think Chariots of Fire is a well deserved win. An uplifting movie that restores your faith in values such as integrity, honesty, persistence, respect, fair rivelary, friendship and as Ebert said, gives you this wonderful nostalgic feeling about simpler times that’s values somehow got lost because… well I don’t know. And the best part it, as someone said, it’s not preachy.
Sure, we can make a poll. There are million of these kind of polls out there. Sure, COF wasn’t the obvious winner that night, so many people won’t rank it high in their top ten. But I’m also sure that it won’t end up in the bottom ten, or even twelve. I feel it does not generate anger like Crash, it’s just not an obvious winner. It may feel confusing that it won, but I don’t think many people are angry about it. I myself very much like this win, but there are more agrivating wins I can think of. Besides the “Usual Suspects” I never liked Rain Man winning, for me the movie was average, but out of the five nominated that year probably the simplest and most neutral choice. Mississippi Burning or Dangerous Liaisons were the winners for me.
sorry Claudiu, I wish you could make some sense sometimes but you don’t… to me at least.
“…when the BP race wasn’t clear after the guilds, nobody dominated or swept the Oscars, with the exception being The Hurt Locker”
“…85% of the time when you predict nobody will dominate in a year like this one, you’ll be right.”
The Hurt Locker won 6 out of 9.
So, when you say Gravity can manage to win like 6 Oscars without BD (6 out of 10) how that doesn’t qualify as dominating?
You even add that in another scenario it seems unlikely for AH or 12 to take 4 oscar… 🙂
I don’t get it, it seems like nobody should win anything according to your numbers… I get your stats are a given and they cannot be discussed but what should happen then? According to stats, I suppose the Academy should cancel the evening. 🙂 🙂 😉
🙂 I just can’t get it right… It’s “1995, 1998, 2000 etc.”
Sorry, that was supposed to be “1996, 1998, 2000 etc.” – easily deduced, though, since I was talking about Shakespeare in Love.
How I think all of this applies to this year:
1. The split is more likely than Sasha thinks.
2. Gravity is unlikely to win BP, BD and all of the techs, as that would definitely be a sweep. Maybe there’s some way for it to win BP, not BD (which I can’t see anyway, at this point), and only some of the techs, to get to a total 5-6 Oscars, but then what other movie wins at least 4? 12 Years would have to win something it’s a big underdog to win, and this without winning Best Picture. Or Hustle win a lot of acting awards? I don’t know. It could happen somehow, but seems unlikely.
I’m posting this here as well, since it seems equally relevant for this discussion. I’ll also give the years where I think there was a close race – if you disagree, I am NOT open for debate this time, because I’ve already been through it once this season and because the stats are clear and there for all to study, so take it as it is given and feel free to try to improve on it if you like. The years (film years) are 1996, 1999, 2000, 2004, 2005, 2009, 2012. Also note that, even though Shakespeare in Love won 7, Saving Private Ryan won 5, so I don’t think that qualifies as “domination”.
In my estimate, in 6/7 years since 1995 when the BP race wasn’t clear after the guilds, nobody dominated or swept the Oscars, with the exception being The Hurt Locker. And no fewer than 4 of those 7 years were splits between Picture and Director.
In other words, 85% of the time when you predict nobody will dominate in a year like this one, you’ll be right. And you’ll be right about half the time if you predict a split, even if you exclude last year.
I didn’t check the other years, when there was a clear, single favorite, but it’s obvious from the above that that’s where almost all of the (near-)sweeps came from.
@Robert A.
2001 and The Producers were both in the Original Screenplay category
Sammy, dear, please explain why you think most actors will vote on Gravity just because they nominated Bullock. AH had 4 of its actors nominated, 12YaS had 3.
Did you just miss the historical data which shows that after the 30s, only THREE films have managed to win BP without a Screenplay nomination?
Your turn.
On the other hand, the screenplay win of Shakespeare in Love, one of the most original scripts ever written, imo, over Pvt Ryan was as big a surprise – one of the great ones.
Really? Best Original Screenplay was the most locked top-tier category that year. SiL would’ve won it even if it hadn’t won Best Picture.
I don’t recall Ryan being considered the second favorite in that category, either.
Koles, I know Roger loved chariots and hated Mommy dearest. Almost all the critics hated mommy dearest. I think is enjoyable campy film . I just hate Chariots of fire. Maybe we should take a poll of for the worst bp winner. I know a lot of people on this site would name Crash. I think. Most people would say the greatest show on earth is bad choice especially beating high moon.
Let’s not forget what the past Academy president said about John Ridley. Don’t be surprised if that costs him votes and possibly an Oscar. When Frank Pierson calls you a “parasite” you might be in trouble.
http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/la-oew-pierson14jan14,0,2694027.story#axzz2rLZDstdH
There are four “Big” categories:
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actor
Best Actress
Gravity has 3/4 and this is enough for a BP triumph.
This is an actor driven business. Best Actress is always bigger than the Best Screenplay.
“Do not forget – Gravity has a critical Best Actress nod and this is more important than having a screenplay nod.”
No, it’s not. Not when you’re talking about the chances of a Best Picture win, anyway.
Very different films in one category. How can you compare HER with American Hustle or Gravity with 12 Years a Slave? They are all big accomplishments in their genre.
Steve50: “BO success meant cash only, not status.”
Present tense as well.
“Hot Tub Time Machine” made a killing at the box office.
But no kudos. You say, What? ? ? ? ?
” Gravity has a critical Best Actress nod and this is more important than having a screenplay nod.”
Delusional. Having a screenplay nod is more important than acting nods. The majority of the voters are not actors.
Having now seen both “Gravity” and “12 Years a Slave” 3 times, I must say that I can’t make up my mind between the two. I was not too hot on both of these films upon first viewing, but going back and revisiting them has certainly heightened my appreciation. I’ve seen “American Hustle” twice and I still think it’s drek. “The Wolf of Wall Street” held up very well upon repeat viewing. As well as “Her” and “Captain Phillips”. This is such a great year for film that I simply do not know who to back. I love them all.
Do not forget – Gravity has a critical Best Actress nod and this is more important than having a screenplay nod.
As an aside, it annoys me to no end that Best Picture so many times appears to be a proxy for best story, ie Best Screenplay.
This is reflected in Sasha’s stat that in split years the story winner tended to align with Picture.
If they’re just voting for the story they like the best, then why bother having a separate category? Or, for that matter, why bother having a separate Best Director category? (Sorry Sasha, I know you like BD/BP to align)
[[Btw this point is neither here nor there wrt gravity or 12 years, both worthy BP winners regardless of how one views their screenplay]]
Sasha I love this post and I love your charts. Thank you so much for this great website.
I’ve always felt screenplay matters more than director in decoding best pic. In 1972, after a long night of awards to Cabaret I knew Godfather would win when it won screenplay. Just had a feeling, and in general that’s seemed to be the way most years (not always but most years). Same thing in 1981 and 1998.
So I have a difficult time seeing Gravity as the best pic. The Academy seems to like to give the award to a film with a good story. It’s not just the lack of a screenplay nom, but the fact that Gravity doesn’t have much of a story to it that makes me think it won’t win. But there’s always a first for everything.
I don’t get the hate for Chariots of Fire. I thought it was the best pic (and screenplay) in 1981 and still do. I find Reds rather a thin, rambling piece of writing that is salvaged by some great acting and lovely cinematography and design (and Sondheim’s lovely theme), but for a film about important ideas and events it’s rather shallow.
As for Godfather/Cabaret, Cabaret was seen as quite the achievement in 1972, and I remember a lot of articles about it bringing back the film musical (it was only 7 years after Sound of Music but there had been a series of big budget flops like Star, Dolly and Doctor Dolittle). And Bob Fosse was having a VERY big year. Cabaret opened in February, Pippin opened on Broadway in the fall (with everyone raving about his staging) and he directed Liza in her Liza with a Z TV special, which just about everyone watched. There was much press about him winning the Oscar, Tony and Emmy in one year.
I thought then and I still do that The Godfather was the great film, but Cabaret is beautifully designed and directed. It’s hard to believe Cabaret won more acting Oscars than The Godfather!
SeattleMovieGoer thank you for your defense of Around the World in 80 Days. I would have voted for Giant or The King and I, but 80 Days is a wonderful film and yes a great adaptation of the novel. The TODD AO is smashing on the big screen but it still works well on TV.
Films with very little dialogue often don’t get acknowledged for screenplay, like Tree of Life.
And that very same year The Artist’s screenplay was nominated. Ironic, no?
I like Chariots more than Reds as well. Reds was great but not memorable; Chariots may have had its problems (not too big, though), but it was definitely memorable! But that’s just my perspective.
And I LOVE that Cabaret and The Godfather split. Both are all-time bests in my book. Cabaret is probably the greatest musical of all time for me and technically simply perfect. And The Godfather needs no further praise – we all know it’s brilliant, even though I do like Part II even more, which I think might just be the best movie ever made.
@Robert
Except The Godfather was a massive hit and a cultural phenomenon. It was the Titanic of 1972 in terms of box office and cultural impact. That had a lot to do with The Godfather winning BP.Everyone went to see The Godfather. 12 Years A Slave simply cannot compare with The Godfather.
I know it wasn’t a split year but, how about Pillow Talk over 400 Blows, North by Northwest, and Wild Strawberries? And I love Pillow Talk.
Yeah , this!^
Why is REDS a shocker? Is it like a classic now? I never very much liked it. Just because it’s very intellectual? Not my kind of movie. Wasn’t it Kubrick who said how about dramatizing rather than explaining? And I like CHARIOTS more –not in my top 10 of that year, but I like it much more than REDS.
Another quick point. I’m fine with FOSSE winning something. That movie is insane. Now that it’s out on Blu-ray (i.e. more available) its reputation will increase a lot more.
“Still skeptical about the scenario where Gravity runs the table in the techs, wins BD, but loses BP with an Oscar haul of 7-8 Oscars.”
Just remember, as someone pointed out in another thread, that this has happened before with The Godfather vs. Cabaret. Cabaret won several tech categories, including editing, won director, even won two acting awards, actress and supporting actor, for a total of eight Oscars…and still lost Best Picture to The Godfather, which only won three–Best Picture, actor, and adapted screenplay.
I could see this year playing out in a similar way with Gravity as Cabaret and 12 Years as The Godfather–a screenplay win, an acting win, and Best Picture.
Well i never saw this coming and i expected 12 years to be oscars choice this year…and Gravity to pick up the crumbs. But clearly and it needs to be pointed out in a related piece by Sasha, that indeed Gravity has turned out to be a blockbuster event film surpassing expectations much like Gladiator did in its time. Nobody expected Gladiator to run away with it. But in the end it did pretty convincingly even if it actually clearly deserved more than it won. (lord knows why Gladiator Ridley Scott did not win best director and art direction to crouching tiger hidden bullXSDD pfffft.
But anyway for the Producers Guild to give equal award is extraordinary and i look at this race wth interest but we all should be sceptical hugely so why? inconsistency and utter unpredictability by oscar in the lead up to awards season climax is the only thing that oscar have proven to do best.
But this year could we look At a tie for best picture? And who cares if Gravity did not get best screenplay? it still the equal most nominated film this year and bloody well deservedly so, it should frankly have got more nominations than it did. I sometimes feel as many did with Gladiator, heck even Return of the King that the total nominations was less than these films deserved.
Gravity may have only got best director and best actress to go with best picture, but frankly, so did Gladiator and look where that film ended up?
There are parallels between Gladiator vs. Crouching Tiger, overrated dragon as i call it year. But one standout difference could we look at a equal tie for best picture atr the oscars?
Should we oppose that , would we? answer? noooo…history has proven screenplay is not be all and end all you know what? i all for that…it proves when oscar give recognition to film that win some years best director/ picture and a few technical awards that oscart NOT just all about writing..and nor should it be…esp if it fails to engage with audiences- this is where oscar should learn to live up to it true identity CONSISTENTLY AMPAS. Not NEARLY enough have films one best picture without best screenplay and yet they can be equally as brilliant.
People should hold Gladiator in High regard and higher than it is regarded by many atm why? it was one of the few films very few to win the big prize without a screenplay oscar in our time…and in addition it brought a generation of revival style epics of the ancient times a revival in true epic style…with numerous instances of some of the finest in art execution cinema has seen…and that was prior to the even greater lotr trilogy.
A win for Gravity outright is what should occur in oscar night, however under the circumstances that one cannot ignore nor should not the fact that oscar own failure to acknowledge through giving the big prize to the black perspective and rightfully respectfully so of slavery in America, and made by black filmmakers with a black cast is inspirational i still feel from oscar perspective while this is a important step this is oscars guilt trip but i certainly will not begrudge a tied win for best picture for both Gravity and 12 years…each have their reasons but i hate to say it GRavity is the film that will be long remembered in the public conciousncess at a truly global level . ‘Slave’ will be remember breifly for oscars ommissions and negligence and rightfully so discussed more so in localized american circles in cafes etc. but thing is EVERYONE WILL talk about Gravity and if it breaks the mould if it does at least tie for best picture at the oscars though it built on science fact not fiction this will pave the door for science fiction of highest quality to win in future years…if Gravity wins outright we approached a touchstone moment and i look forward to a day where i can praise and not curse oscar for their decisions…it a double edged guilty trip that what you all must know by oscar…they snubbed countless event films since 2001 a space oddysey enubbed way too many of seminal sci-fi blockbuster event proportions…whether intended or not to be event films…and it really only cos of oscars guilt i fear to say esp if both tie for best picture or alternatively win similar quantity of awards and esp if 12 years take out best picture and gravity ONLY best director and some tech awards then it proves this was yet again another missed opportunity that will compound oscars unjustified unforgiveable negligence of arguably the most ambitious film genre that been with us and oscar for 3/4 of it life but not once yet recognized: that of the realm of science based films.
Fact of matter is really oscar would be wise if anything to give best picture to GRavity outright and have it win most awards and best director as slaves highest award.
There HAVE been films made of slavery’s calibre the debate should NOT be if oscar did things more cocnsistently on merit rather than guilt who and which type of pple made the film but the film ability to transcend itself to reach out to BOTH LOCAL AND GLOBAL aaudience slave ultimately should be viewed as historically important but more so to americans than to a global audience. Therefore if oscar is fair dingkom if they want to regain public credibility if they respect their own legacy of AMPAS they will stop obsessing about screenplay nom = increase chance for best picture and give the outright film which ahs the most merit in Gravity the win..i rather and we all should rather it win best picture over best director if there be a split…we see how this pans out interesting yet in a way somewhat predictable. Slave will win best picture the scinece genre film will win consolation…which is little comfort to millions of us who experienced GRavity worlwide and outght to be cold comfort for oscar who clearly if this is the outcome proves how far behind the 8 ball and that indeed oscar will constantly fgind lame weak and discrediting excuses NOT to embrace the science based genre…time to put this to rest and show to embrace the film that deserves t win outright and end your blind ignorance oscar
I love Chariots of Fire. I think it’s one of those rare films that delve into how religion plays a part in the decisions we make that isn’t preachy. I think it’s quite stunning at times, actually. I love Reds too and wouldn’t begrudge it the win. But I’m glad COF won and I think it, among the two, deserved it.
The point is AMPAS and everybody want history to be made, that’s why 12YAS will either get BP or Director or Both, it can’t miss both prizes, it’s impossible.
My hunch is 12YAS for Picture and screenplay, and probably supporting actress.
What have we got left ? …Cuaron and Russell and McQueen for director, and you’re right the lack of screenplay nom really kills, which means it’s Russell vs McQueen for director with a big chance of a clean sweep for the latter, because AH is no major threat except in the screenplay category (Cooper, Lawrence and Bale will be passed over).
The Race is over as I already wrote it : 12YAS will get at least 5 or 6 Oscar, Gravity will win big in the tech categories (4 or 5), and AH will only get 1 or 2 prizes (expect Amy Adams to win against Blanchett).
I am not surprised Chariots of Fire won a screenplay award over Reds. It was a feel good movie that a lot of people loved that year. Reds was a great movie which I liked a lot but not a lot of people left that movie feeling euphoric. Things might have played out differently a few years later but probably not.
Hollywood knew what they had.
Moneymaker, yes. Don’t forget that #2 at the box office that year was The Poseidon Adventure (drek) and the top ten included TWO hardcore porn films. BO success meant cash only, not status.
BREAKING
“‘Grace Of Monaco’ To Open Cannes Film Festival In World Premiere”
How nice of her! She’s been away from the spotlight for so long… I wonder what she’s been doing all these years?
Still skeptical about the scenario where Gravity runs the table in the techs, wins BD, but loses BP with an Oscar haul of 7-8 Oscars. I can see a BP/BD split (assuming Cuaron wins DGA) if Gravity’s tech haul is less than five. Then you are in Hugo territory.
All of this goes out the window if McQueen or Russell win DGA anyway.
@Al
The Godfather was the first film to reach $100 mil. It earned $133 mil way back in 1972. It was a 3 hour movie based on a very popular novel and a massive hit. Hollywood knew what they had.
A blockbuster and a clear sign that “The New” is comming and it’s comming big time. Coppola was already called a genius at that time.
‘fraid not, Koles. I watched it unfold firsthand and remember it well. The Godfather was a massive hit at the BO, which probably created something of a backlash by the time the year was finished (sound familiar?). It only scored at the Globes. Critics went for foreign films like The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie and Cries and Whispers. It was the 70s and we were stumbling over classic films.
Coppola’s success was noted, but the scriptwriter for Patton didn’t really get his “genius” tag until later. Although the buzz that he was the real thing never caught up with the Academy in time for the Oscars, it was still a shock that The Godfather went home with so few. The most awards it got that year was 5 from the Globes.
It’s amazing to see how these things work themselves out decades later.
@Jonathan
2001 was nominated for adapted screenplay. It lost to The Producers.
Sasha, Traffic won best adapted screenplay. It never contended for original. I wish Stephen Gaghan wrote or directed something else as Syriana is amongst my favorite of movies and I consider it to be one of the best written scripts ever.
Actually, 2001: A Space Odyssey was nominated for its screenplay, shared by Kubrick and Arthur C. Clarke.
Sasha, if this analysis doesn’t win you a Pulitzer, there is no justice.
“Remember 1968, when 200l was not nominated for screenplay?”
huh?
Like most categories, screenplay is a crapshoot and mostly crap. Invariably there is a bias toward lots of words and little or no recognition for structure. It’s why the Chayefskys of this world are more likely to be nominated than the Malicks. Remember 1968, when 200l was not nominated for screenplay? Or even best film, for that matter? Actually I’ve had little use for the Academy Awards since. I think they’re fun but of little consequence.
Can you see a split year with Gravity winning BP but not BD though? I can see it the other way around, but I think if it wins BP, BD is a foregone conclusion.
Can you see a split year with Gravity winning BP but not BD though? I can see it the other way around, but I think if it wins BP, BD is a foregone conclusion.
Mark, I agree with that. Gravity feels like a Best Pic to me more than it does even a BD. But who am I to fight the tide? I am predicting mcQueen and 12 Years for both but this is such a competitive year who knows how it will end up….
“In a word, Al, no – nobody had any idea what a benchmark The Godfather would become. As it was adapted from a very pulpy novel and missed nominations in Score, Cinematography and Art Direction (three areas in which it was groundbreaking and accounted for its iconic operatic style) show that the Academy did not know what they had on their hands. Add to that the fact that Coppola was nearly fired during production. It wasn’t until Godfather II that people realized part one was no fluke and honoured Copolla accordingly.”
That’s not entirely true. The movie was released in march 1972, but it won the Oscar a year later. A whole year. So what happened in that year. Godfather became what Avatar is today, the highest grossing picture of all time. So by the time the awards came, the Academy knew perfectly well what they were dealing with. A blockbuster and a clear sign that “The New” is comming and it’s comming big time. Coppola was already called a genius at that time.
No offense to Bob Fosse and Cabaret, but how did he beat Francis Ford Coppola and The Godfather for Best Director?? I wonder if at the time in 1973, the voters had any idea how beloved The Godfather would end up being?
In a word, Al, no – nobody had any idea what a benchmark The Godfather would become. As it was adapted from a very pulpy novel and missed nominations in Score, Cinematography and Art Direction (three areas in which it was groundbreaking and accounted for its iconic operatic style) show that the Academy did not know what they had on their hands. Add to that the fact that Coppola was nearly fired during production. It wasn’t until Godfather II that people realized part one was no fluke and honoured Copolla accordingly.
That said, Fosse was the perfect choice for director that year. His choreography background gave him the courage to move the camera in ways never before seen in a major film. Rewatch Cabaret with this in mind and you’ll notice that the viewer actually swims through the action, especially when inside the Kit Kat Club.
Have to agree that Chariots script beating Reds was an unwelcome shocker. On the other hand, the screenplay win of Shakespeare in Love, one of the most original scripts ever written, imo, over Pvt Ryan was as big a surprise – one of the great ones.
You’re over analyzing the Oscar trend like it’s the stock market. Art needs to be felt, not quantified. You should focus on writing beautiful pieces like you used to at Oscar Watch.
“Chariots of Fire beating Reds is really the one I couldn’t believe.”
Funny, I’d say the same thing about Argo beating Lincoln.
@Edkargir@aol.com
“1981 the razzi winner Mommy dearest is a better film than the Oscar winner Chariots of fire”
Roger Ebert calls bullshit on that one
– http://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/mommie-dearest-1981
– http://www.rogerebert.com/reviews/chariots-of-fire-1981
1981 the razzi winner Mommy dearest is a better film than the Oscar winner Chariots of fire the worst best picture winner of all time. Terrible screenplay , awful acting, I even hate the music.
No doubt in my mind this is a split year, because Cuaron is winning Director but Gravity is not our Best Picture winner. Can’t say for sure if Hustle or Slave is winning but signs are pointing to Slave currently.
Updated Predictions:
Picture – 12 Years A Slave
Director – Alfonso Cuaron
Actor – Matthew McConaughey
Actress – Cate Blanchett
S. Actor – Jared Leto
S. Actress – Lupita Nyong’o
O. Screenplay – American Hustle
A. Screenplay – 12 Years A Slave
Editing – Gravity
Cinematography – Gravity
Production Design – American Hustle
Costumes – The Great Gatsby
Makeup – Dallas Buyers Blub
Sound Mixing – Inside Llewyn Davis
Sound Editing – Gravity
Score – Gravity
Song – Frozen
Animated – Frozen
Documentary – The Act Of Killing
Foreign Film – The Great Beauty
Visual Effects – Gravity
Animated Short – Mr. Hublot
Live Action Short – That Wasn’t Me
Documentary Short – The Lady In Number 6: Music Saved My Life
6 Oscars for Gravity, 3 for 12 Years A Slave and Dallas Buyers Club, 2 for American Hustle and Frozen
Okay, at least The Godfather won for Best Adapted Screenplay.
No offense to Bob Fosse and Cabaret, but how did he beat Francis Ford Coppola and The Godfather for Best Director?? I wonder if at the time in 1973, the voters had any idea how beloved The Godfather would end up being?
If I had to make an extremely short list for the most beloved (American) films of all-time, The Godfather would definitely be on it.
I know it wasn’t a split year but, how about Pillow Talk over 400 Blows, North by Northwest, and Wild Strawberries? And I love Pillow Talk.
“Chariots of Fire beating Reds is really the one I couldn’t believe.”
I have no trouble believing that. Great movie, great script. Well deserved.
Actually, the script for AROUND THE WORLD IN 80 DAYS was a pretty clever adaptation of the Jules Verne novel. The writers involved were some of the best of that era. S.J. Perelman was a celebrated humorist, columnist (New Yorker) and co-wrote a bunch of Marx Bros. films. John Farrow (Mia’s dad) was a terrific writer and director (WAKE ISLAND) and James Poe wrote a lot of great scripts (CAT/TIN ROOF, LILIES OF THE FIELD). 80 DAYS gets a bum rap anymore, but it was (and many of us still consider it) widely hailed in its day. It won the Oscar, yes, but also the lion share of critics’ prizes (NYFCC). Also, it was stunning on the giant screen in TODD-AO.
CHARTS ARE AWESOME!
Too funny when you raise our anticipation…and then the one film without even a screenplay nomination is fuckin’ Shakespeare. Hilarious. Well, we know how they feel about those Shakespeare adaptations. I don’t think that precedent means much at all except to reinforce idea the that Gravity is the kind of film that either sweeps or stays in the tech area.
Where is Chicago / The Pianist?
“No SAG ensemble, no screenplay nod, 3D” At least on 3D, I don’t know. I get the feeling they’ve been warming up to it as the years go by. Avatar was dismissed rather quickly, but then Scorsese’s Hugo got 5 Oscars — tying with The Artist; and then Ang Lee’s Life of Pi ended up getting 4 Oscars vs. Argo’s 3. You could even count Chris Nolan’s Inception as a VFX driven movie since 2010 had no 3D movie nominated for best picture — and that also tied with The King’s Speech at 4 Oscars. And it’s also worth pointing out that these VFXs movies have been expanding throughout the categories rather quickly over the years: Avatar didn’t get screenplay or acting nods, but a year later, Inception got screenplay nods but no directing. Hugo goth both. Then, a year later, Life of Pi won best director. Gravity didn’t get a screenplay nod, but that maybe was a tough bet anyways, but… if anything, Gravity’s the first 3D/VFX driven movie to get an actor nominated, Sandra Bullock. I think that the lack of a screenplay nod is compensated by her nod — a nod that was very much written on the wall ever since Gravity premiered, no less.
I still think & hope BP (12 Years A Slave) and BD (Cuaron) split to happen. Cuaron will get huge support from tech dept even without screenplay nominations. If not, hopefully 12 Years A Slave will take both. American Hustle could end up zero or only with Original Screenplay.
Maybe I do this at my own peril, but I consider Argo a bit of a fluke. It fit so well into the narrative of Affleck as the “comeback kid” that whatever the hell happened that kept it out of Director wasn’t enough to stop it winning the big one. This year, I think the more compelling narrative is 12 Years winning Picture, and Cuaron making up for past slights by winning Director. Gravity winning Picture would be anticlimactic (and IMO underserved), as would 12 Years winning Picture and Director (though I would vote for McQueen myself).
The real story here is that Around the World in 80 Days beat Giant for Adapted Screenplay
The real story here is that Around the World in 80 Days beat Giant for Adapted Screenplay
Chariots of Fire beating Reds is really the one I couldn’t believe.
@ Cory
Actually, that’s not true. There are about 6-7 movies that have won BP without a screenplay nomination. It’s just that four of them happened in the Academy’s first few years, when everything was screwy and when results aren’t all that comparable to today’s AMPAS. Since 1937 or so there have only been three movies that have won BP without a screenplay nomination–Hamlet, The Sound of Music, and Titanic.
Hamlet most likely didn’t get a screenplay nomination because they just used Shakespeare’s play, for the most part.
’12 Years A Slave’ will win adapted screenplay. The Academy will give this film at least one big award.
Although ‘Her’ has been winning original screenplay at various events like the Golden Globe Awards I feel that the Academy will recognise David O Russell here. 10 nominations is huge.
However if ‘Her’ wins original screenplay there is the danger that ‘American Hustle’ does a ‘Gangs of New York’ and ‘True Grit’ 10-0 which would be a great shame.
Another thing to consider (slightly related) is that only Titanic and The Sound of Music won BP without a screenplay nomination. They were huge box office hits, though, to a much higher degree than even Gravity is.
Sounds kind of weird that Hamlet didn’t get a screenplay nomination. I still think 12YAS (Best Picture) and Gravity (Best Director) is going to happen.