In all of the ways people think the Oscar race is predictable it always turns out to be surprising when the dust settles. There is no point in not saying what is the obvious writing on the wall — David O. Russell will finally collect the big Oscar for directing as American Hustle wins Best Picture. That might mean Jennifer Lawrence wins her second Oscar back to back, or that Lupita Nyong’o and/or Chiwetel Ejiofor might win for 12 Years a Slave because it won’t be winning Best Picture.
That’s right, in this pivotal year when the industry — the Academy specifically – went out of their way to diversify their membership, in the second term of the country’s first African-American president, with three strong black filmmakers in the race, none of that is going to matter as voters pick what they like and the film everyone seems to be agreeing on right now is the one the New York Film critics chose as Best Picture and the one the National Society of Film Critics, which shut out 12 Years a Slave completely, had as their runner-up choice.
David O. Russell has come close to Oscar twice before with The Fighter, then with Silver Linings Playbook. He has made a film that never takes itself seriously, is not really about anything particularly, but revels in what this director does best: great performances and a screwball non-plot.
Add to that, the early declaration by Kyle Buchanan that 12 Years a Slave would win put a big fat target on its back. Then, it was Gravity’s to lose and now it seems like the consensus will settle on the movie that doesn’t really ask anything of you but seeks only to entertain. No one is going to complain, least of all the critics. This is a movie that brings a big party with lots of big stars along with it, stars that are dressed up in disco attire, an era that many of the aging voters remember fondly.
American Hustle is going to be named Best Picture of 2013, that is the sentence I keep hearing in my mind. There is nothing particularly offensive about this idea. It’s a really good movie in its own way. Is it the best of the year? Well, that’s a matter of opinion and the opinion shared by many Academy members is likely going to be yes. It will likely win the Golden Globe, then probably the Producers Guild, then very likely the Directors Guild – and I bet it even wins the SAG ensemble. These are the things you can just smell in the air.
The only way I see it turning around is if the film gains some backlash now that it’s out front (or once it becomes out front). But the season moves so fast there won’t be time. 12 Years a Slave was out front way too early — because it was out front so many people started complaining about it. The mantra I keep hearing is that it’s only about “slavery was bad.” They prefer instead a film that doesn’t even pretend to be about anything. Or even if it’s “ABSCAM was bad” that doesn’t hurt it at all. It’s a big party and the big stars show up at the party. Moreover, it has everything the Oscar voters like — scantily clad women fighting over men who, in no way shape or form they would ever go for in real life. Jennifer Lawrence and Amy Adams fighting over a bald paunchy sad-sack Christian Bale in that movie is something only Hollywood could dream up.
But for those who think 12 Years a Slave is just “slavery is bad” have not really spent much time using their brains. Yeah, you know that big fat organ that sits between your ears, took millions of years to evolve, helped mankind invent tools and technology? Yeah that. Give it a spin some time and see where it takes you. What could it hurt? But most people go to the movies to be entertained not to problem solve, not to atone, and certainly not to think. If you want to win Best Picture give them something entertaining that doesn’t ask too much of them and sends them back out on the street with a grin. American Hustle — which is probably better than all of the Best Picture winners since The Hurt Locker — does just that.
I find it ironic that when the season first began many were predicting American Hustle to win sight unseen. Jeff Wells, who is a big fan of David O. Russell beat the drum early for it to be Russell’s moment. The Hollywood Reporter’s Scott Feinberg had it predicted to win very early, before anyone had seen it. But then a test screening happened and that test screening downplayed the movie significantly. Everyone shifted their position. When I first saw it at a SAG screening, the audience’s response was tepid at best. I walked out of that screening along with Steve Pond, Anne Thompson and Kris Tapley thinking it was good but “not an awards movie.” Anne Thompson even wrote about that very thing. This all changed when the New York Film critics chose the film as its winner. Suddenly it had the sheen of success on it and from then, I would argue, it became unstoppable, as much as a LOATHE to give the NYFCC any credit at all. This is why being first can sometimes make the difference. Being first for the NYFCC meant they could pick a movie most people hadn’t seen and elevate it to supreme status.
If life is what happens while you’re busy making other plans, the Oscar race is about trying to make sure no one looks at your movie for Oscar until the time is exactly right. Now American Hustle can look like the accidental winner, the one that captured the hearts of voters when they were supposed to be voting for more ambitious, more serious films. But the truth is, American Hustle, like all of the other movies, absolutely had its eye on Oscar from beginning. These movies simply don’t get made otherwise.
Here are the films that have the best shot at winning and from the looks of it there are only three.
1. American Hustle – a film that is a wacky screwball comedy about a man and a woman — Christian Bale and Amy Adams — pulling a scam. It opens with “some of this actually happened,” thus it never really has to tell the truth about anything and it can deceive you without having to adhere to history or common sense. It is, I suppose, about fake masks, faux personas and desperation. It’s Dirty Rotten Scoundrels meets Goodfellas. Amy Adams is in love with Christian Bale, then plays Bradley Cooper, then ends up back with Christian Bale. Jennifer Lawrence steals the show as Bale’s wife. In between are a lot of funny, quirky plot deviations but the story always winds up back on Bale and Adams. At the end of the day it is really just a screwball comedy not unlike something Frank Capra might have made.
People come out of American Hustle with a smile on their face, toe-tapping to the ’70s soundtrack, jazzed up on the hair and the dresses. More people say “I loved American Hustle” than they do any other movie. That, my friends, is how you find a consensus vote. It reminds me of Chicago or Argo — just a big, funny party where nothing is particularly at stake. Plus, David O. Russell is kind of overdue when you think about it. He’s been at the game a long, long time and perhaps his ship has finally come in.
2. 12 Years a Slave — still the big challenger. This breathtaking, difficult, challenging film is the film about slavery Hollywood owes us and the movie America deserves. No giant consensus of white voters wants to be confronted with either our past or our present, let’s face it. No one wants to confront the idea that the only film to win Best Picture that remotely dealt with American slavery was 1939’s Gone with the Wind – “happy negroes” helping the white folk out of their predicaments. Hattie McDaniel won the Oscar but was seated so far in the back it took her a very long time to make it to the stage. In 2012, Quentin Tarantino made a “fun” slavery movie, Django Unchained. Hollywood rewarded it by giving Oscars to Tarantino and Christoph Waltz. McQueen’s unflinching look at slavery is every bit about today as it is about those times. It isn’t just “slavery was bad” but how could this man have been put into slavery so easily and for 12 years? How many of these stories exist today and are never told? We wait around for white people to tell those stories but here is one whose source material was written by a slave, whose screenwriter is an African American and was directed by a new voice in cinema, Steve McQueen.
It’s not a rolling party of hard nipples poking through polyester and it doesn’t have a glittering disco ball following it around nor funny teasy sexless sex scenes. It is so much more than that. Hard, yes, intense, absolutely. Painful and somber? No doubt. How do you get people to vote for something they can barely think about? No easy task. When it comes to voting for movies people do what they want to do. They pick what they “like” not what they should. And what a shame that is. In the almost 15 years I’ve been Oscar watching I always wondered if there would come a time when a black director would have a shot. They would have to pass the gauntlet of film critics — mostly white, straight males who like films they can relate to. So when 12 Years came along it seemed, for a little while, like it could actually have a shot. History might be made after all. For the first time in 86 years a black director would take the stage to accept a gold statue for directing. Turns out we would see a black president before we see a black director winning an Oscar.
It has stars – check. It has Brad Pitt producing. It has Fox Searchlight’s mighty Oscar campaigning behind it. It has history on its side. It is one of the most memorable films of the year. And yet, here we are again. Kitten in a teacup. LIKE.
3. Gravity — all of this might change when the Producers Guild announce their winner and it’s Gravity. At that point heads will nod in agreement that, yes, Gravity is the one to beat. Cuaron’s groundbreaking odyssey of a woman in space — who would have figured any director would have the balls in 2013 to make a movie about a woman? A singular woman who must fight for survival. For all of the humanity in Cuaron’s brilliant work, the dazzling special effects are part of what makes this film such a standout in 2013. Gravity, to me, is as much a metaphor about endurance as J.C. Chandor’s All Is Lost but Cuaron somehow managed to make it be about women specifically. Women who must juggle being mothers with working with aging with attractiveness with sexiness. And all the while gravity is pulling them down every day, aging them, making them saggy and wrinkly. But you know, Sandra Bullock found the truth in who she was in those dark, silent moments in space. That sense of identity and strength is what pulls her back down to earth, to a place where she very much appreciates every minute that gravity pins her to earth.
The truth is that we don’t know how the consensus will go when all is said and done. But my thinking is this. If the National Society of Film Critics, the highest and most elite group of critics in the country, can’t even reward 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture what hope does it have with the much bigger groups? If there was going to be any group that rewarded a film of such beauty it should have been them. They went for Inside Llewyn Davis but their runner-up was American Hustle. And if American Hustle is good enough for New York and the National Society, it sure as shit will be good enough for the industry.
The question for me is whether I will officially change my prediction over at Movie City News and Gold Derby or not. I haven’t quite learned how to let it go.
Predictions
Best Picture
1. American Hustle
2. 12 Years a Slave
3. Gravity
4. Captain Phillips
5. Nebraska
6. Her
7. Dallas Buyers Club
8. Saving Mr. Banks
9. The Wolf of Wall Street
10. Inside Llewyn Davis
Best Actor
1. Bruce Dern, Nebraska
2. Chiwetel Ejiofor. 12 Years a Slave
3. Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
4. Robert Redford, All is Lost
5. Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips
Best Actress
1. Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
2. Sandra Bullock, Gravity
3. Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
4. Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
5. Judi Dench, Philomena
Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Alt. Bradley Cooper, American Hustle, James Gandolfini, Enough Said
Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
Director
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Alt. Spike Jonze, Her, Alexander Payne, Nebraska, Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis, Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
Original Screenplay
Eric Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle
Spike Jonze, Her
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine
Alt. Craig Borten, Dallas Buyers Club
Adapted Screenplay
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Terrence Winter, Wolf of Wall Street
Steve Coogan, Philomena
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips
Alt. Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight
“I’ve had faith in the collective common sense and high mindedness of the Academy voters”
But WHY?! 🙂 Why would you ever…
I definitely think you should defend and bet on AH – maybe even Gravity as well, because you never know… I’m quite serious! The ONLY time to be any kind of sure of who will win is AFTER the 3 major guilds (PGA, SAG, DGA) have announced their winner(s). I would never make any kind of bet earlier than that.
I usually just wait until the day before the Oscars, to be honest, so that I have all the data and I also have time to cool off and be as objective as possible. You should NEVER be subjective in any way when betting, and this is ESPECIALLY true of the Oscars – quality has got nothing (or very little) to do with it, sadly… I suspect even when something actually good wins (which does happen from time to time, even in our days), it’s rarely because it was good, but for other reasons altogether. There are such peripheral reasons in 12 Years a Slave’s case, but it’s not yet clear whether they’re actually reasons to win or reasons to lose. 🙂
The B P race is between 12 YAS GRAVITY and AMERICAN HUSTLE
No other movie can win ….Gravity , I suspect will not win due to it’s sci fi subject matter and the fact it is ”movies for the masses ” …they should and do have better tastes in movies than that
In that arc of continuity of Slumdog , Artist , Kings Speech , Argo then GRAVITY it just doesn’t fit in ; 12 YAS does , unfortunatly A H does too
It’s undeniable to everyone that 12 YAS is the most important movie , but unfortuneatly many folks do not put too much value on importance , but merely want to be entertained , titilated by sex and have a good laugh …..simply a sign of the times ,methinks
It may well turn out that Sasha is just a nervous nellie in a panic attack , but not being able to recognise the writing on the wall can lead to disaster ; it is indeed noble , but foolish to be a true believer and go down with the ship ..on the other hand , it is unforgivable to be a leader and then jump ship at the first broadside ; you gotta be sure
I’ve bet a large ammount of money on 12 YAS because I think it is BY FAR the most deserving of BP Oscar and I’ve had faith in the collective common sense and high mindedness of the Academy voters ; however , small seeds of doubt are now growing that my faith was undeserved , or even foolish , and that , HORRIFINGLY, I may well of wasted all my money …yes , the very thought of defeat is approaching in a sinister twilight made much worse considering that only a few days ago I was basking in my glorious thoughts of the sweet victory of taking the bookies to the cleaners , buying myself a new car and an a vacation to the Greek Isles ; such are the best laid plans of mice and men …indeed , in moments of sober reflection , it has dawned upon me that I must frantically bet on American Hustle to avoid financial disaster and considering that A H is still an outsider at 6/1 I am very fortunate indeed to be able to do just that ….we simply do not usually get second chances and the ability to jump ship and survive
It is beginning to look , in the words of Oscar Wilde , that the ”play was a success , but the audience merely a failure ” !
Oh, let’s face it! Gravity and AH are the worst and second-worst of the likely Best Picture nominees and yet it’s obvious everybody in the industry loves them, giving them noms and wins left and right. So, if I know the Academy at all, it’ll be one of these two that wins.
Thankfully, at least Gravity can’t sweep the guilds, so it’ll probably be AH! I can live with that one winning BP, I guess, but Gravity would just be atrocious in the extreme… It’d be almost as bad as if Avatar had won – I would start to seriously consider suicide. 🙂
So yeah, I guess Sasha’s probably right – why kid ourselves? The best film never wins anymore. Why should it this year?
KT: When did the voters get over Meryl Streep? She’s won three Oscars, and her third was only two years ago.
I think Sasha is just writing this as a sort of defense mechanism because she fears her favorite 12YAS will go down. She did the same when her babies THe Social Network and Lincoln seemed to be in trouble too. However in actuality here, there’s very little basis for one this year. 12YAS is BY FAR the favorite across all the prognosticators.
She did the same when her babies The Social Network and Lincoln seemed to be in trouble too.
When Sasha sees the game tilt, Sasha understands what the tilt means. Sasha saw the tilt toward The King’s Speech and didn’t hesitate to report honestly what she was seeing. The same thing happened last year when the game tilted toward Argo. Sasha saw what was happening and didn’t cling to false hope.
2 years in a row, Sasha was right. Yes, she saw her personal favorites in trouble. Yes, she faced reality.
So if you’re comparing this year to the past 2 years, you’d better be careful dismissing this shift as a mere “defense mechanism.”
I hope Sasha is wrong this year. Maybe Sasha hopes she’s wrong too.
But it did me very little good to hope Sasha was wrong in 2011 and 2012. I stubbornly stuck with my favorites and I was crushed on Oscar night.
How about you wait and see what happens before you accuse people of irrational fear for their “babies.”
I really do hope that Oprah Winfrey and The Butler are not nominated. They just aren’t deserving and most critic’s groups agree. An oscar for Oprah will prove that the awards are just a popularity contest and nothing else.
Oh, then, go ahead and give it to American Hustle. They gave it to Argo. Why not further diminish the Academy Awards? Then I can stop going to this website in January.
It is indeed a ”ballsy ”prediction that will discredit her or make her the oscar version of the ”Oracle of Delphi ”…as a fervent supporter of 12 YAS she cannot be accused of allowing her love of A H to cloud and impair her judgement , that’s for sure ; I personally , am a ”true believer ” of 12 YAS and have only came to even thinking about its defeat with the greatest reluctance , however , it seems to me that they have taken a bite of it repeatedly and found it unpalatable ; then then tried GRAVITY as a substitute and found it unsatisfing ; they next went to A H and while recognising that it was far from a masterpiece , it was at least DIGESTABLE ….a movie that could very well win by default as the least objectionable
This indeed is a bitter pill to swallow , but after being tipped of by Sasha to it’s possibilty , the more I think about it , the more likely it seems to become …I wish it wasn’t so ,I REALLY WISH IT WASN’T SO, but I’m increasingly and reluctantly coming to the conclusion that it may well be …there is a small but shrill and persistant alarm bell ringing that intuitively says ”A H wins Best Picture ”
Sasha, why is “12 Years a Slave” still listed as your Best Picture pick at Gold Derby? I think “Hustle” is a ballsy prediction. I like it.
Remember, “It’s not over till the fat black lady in the disco suit sings…”
Don’t Laugh. Sasha, has a valid viewpoint. The “Best Picture” award is often a snapshot of current society. Given recent winners, “Argo”, “The Artist” and “The King’s Speech”, the “light-hearted, feel-good” movies are in the groove. Mix in an A-list director, 2 recent Academy Award winners (Lawrence, Bale), 4x nominee (Adams), the male breakout out star of last year (Cooper), some bad really wigs, accents and great music soundtrack…and the Academy should fell like dancing! It may be more than Sarah Paulson throwing a wine bottle at a slave….Oprah? Uma?
Okay. So we’ve reached the stage where people have chosen their favorites and are now going to start throwing shit at every other film, or the main threats, just to prop up their choice. *writes the date down*
AH bored me out of my mind for the most part
i never got into it , there were some sequences that were good but there were equally parts were i was watching my watch wondering when this would be over !
the acting wasnt bad but the movie went on for too long , i truly liked jeremy renner in this , amy adams and christian bale were very good and jlaw was self involved
i didnt care for them or what happened to them except jeremy renner character the only one who felt genuine !
by the way still haven’t been able to see 12YAS
gravity also ok movie but by no mean a WOW film, i haven’t thought about it since i saw it
same for the butler!
at this point last year
1/ i was gushing like crazy over ARGO and LES MISERABLES as my two favs to win everything
2/i was annoyed and frustrated by comments and AD post droning on about other films being better bla bla bla about lincoln , gosh i don’t even feel like i have a lincoln to root against
all that said i have not seen WoWS / HER / NEBRASKA / 12YAS / INSIDE LLEWYN DAVIS / ALL IS LOST
so i might yet change my tune
what i have seen is AH / RUSH / THE BUTLER / GRAVITY / SAVING MR BANKS
PS: love love SMB what a sweet movie i’m just not sure its a horse that has a realistic chance in the race but im sure it will get noms
““Actually, _American Hustle_ is a really awesome impressive lovable movie made by a filmmaker who is inspiring many young filmmakers with his eye for spontaneity and positivity. David O. Russell is not a bore. He’s experimental. ”
This is a joke, right?”
No, not a joke Daveylow. The tendency (yours and that of many on this forum) to be stupified by Russell’s success is clearly indicative of the fact that you don’t recognize that this is how and why people are enthused by his movies.
I will be surprised – albeit pleasantly so – if 12 Years a Slave wins the best picture Oscar. American Hustle is a better bet at this point.
Oh and, regarding the “AH better than the last 3 winners thing”… I’d put it somewhere in 2nd or 3rd, behind The King’s Speech – which, despite the fact that it beat the far superior (for me) Inception and the far superior (for everybody else) The Social Network, is still pretty good and far more coherent than AH -, in front of Argo and either slightly ahead or slightly behind The Artist.
Thanks for the kind words, Buford!
I think it’s pretty clear after the mind**** that was last year’s Oscar race that we can’t really ever know how the voters think, so I would say the stats are the best tool we have anyway. 🙂
They even managed to hold up last year, despite the insane Best Director snub (because Argo won practically everything else and nothing else won anything of consequence, so it was still the favorite on Oscar night, even from a statistical point of view) and they will likely hold up this year as well. But we’ll see – who knows what surprises the Academy has in store for us this time around…
Also, forgot to mention: American Hustle better than every BP winner since Hurt Locker? Please. I know that trio’s become hip to hate, but we’re on completely different pages. The King’s Speech, The Artist, and Argo were all on my Top 10s of their respective years (though, admittedly, never the #1), while American Hustle is sitting just outside of 20.