It has all come down to this, Oscar watchers. Another year almost in the can. Outcome mostly uncertain. All eyes turn to he BAFTAS before the final predictions are made. But if you’re ready to go – the contest is ready for you. Winners will receive the customary set of all nine Best Picture contenders on DVD or Blu-Ray.
Foreign film: the great beauty from itAly
makeup: dallas buyers club
The big 8
P gravity
D alfonso cuaron for gravity
A cheiwtol ejifor
Actress cate blanchett
S. Actor jared leto
S. Actress lupita nyongo
O. Screenplay Her
A. Screenplay 12 years a slave
Tech
Ad: gravity
Cd: the great gatsby
Fe: captain phillips
Sound mixing: the hobbit
Sound editing: gravity
Cinematograohy: gravity
Visual effects: gravity
Music score: gravity
Music song: let it go from frozen
Animated feature: frozen
Documemtary feature: 20,000 feet from stardom
Documentary short subject: cave digger
Animated short film: get a horse
Live action short film: the voornam problem
If it were a tight race between two people in Best Actress, then I’d say that Cate might be vulnerable due to recent events.
But she’s so far ahead from the pack that the insignificant amount of defectors would not affect her chance. There’s no clear one alternative for the votes to go to. The defecting votes will spread out Amy, Sandra, Dench and Streep.
“Plus, does Amy Adams have as much support as, say, Philomena? Do men vote with their dicks or their hearts? Hm.”
Re Oscar voters notwithstanding, that’s sexism . . . . : )
A true gentleman, I can live with that but for the record it does hurt my brother Richard [don’t ask].
“Winners will receive the customary set of all nine Best Picture contenders on DVD or Blu-Ray.”
SOLD!
Very tempting.
(Would love to revisit Gravity for its VFX and Hustle for everything; plus sights unseen for now — Wolf (going to see it by next Wednesday), Nebraska, Her, etc.)
Feeling pretty good about m y predictions and rarely take them seriously.
Picture: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
Director: McQueen
Actress: Blanchett
Actor: McConaughey
S. Actor: Leto
S. Actress: Nyong’o
Cinematography: Lubezki
Score: Price
Editing: Cuaron, Sanger
O. Screenplay: Russell
A. Screenplay: Ridley
I’m pretty much locking these in.
I’m sympathetic with this conjecture, and I think the world of Bullock’s career-best performance in which she utterly takes over Gravity. Much ado has been made about Gravity’s lack of SAG Ensemble nomination, but Bullock’s role is an actor’s wet dream, where the spotlight is totally focused on a singular person. And she mesmerizes. Gravity will be getting some acting branch support for BP based on that.
Still, despite my lukewarm feelings towards Jasmine, I cannot see Blanchett losing. She owns her performance as well – it’s a tricky, delicate, and layered role, one that many other talented actresses would fall flat with. But Blanchett shines, and again proves without a doubt why she’s one of the greatest, most versatile working actresses today (and, for my money, is the only person I’d consider to be the heir apparent to Meryl Streep).
Sasha,
Since the final voting begins on February 14, and the BAFTAS are held on February 16, I’m wondering if there would be enough of them who fill out their ballots right away on that Friday and Saturday, that it would effect how influential the BAFTAS will be. In other words, would there possibly be “enough” AMPAS voters who would vote before the BAFTAS, to effect the outcome of the Oscars?
Voters watching the WOWS screener will be first exposed to MM’s hysterical cameo and might lean towards him for a body of work Oscar
You really can’t predict against Gatsby’s costumes I think. But art direction is the tossup this year, just like last year with Anna Karenina and Lincoln. How much of Hustle’s sets were created from scratch? I’m not feeling strongly about any contender in this category and expect a surprise of some sort.
LEO aint winning BAFTA ….EJIOFOR will easily win
However , it seems to me that Mconaughey will indeed win the Oscar and the lack of a victory for EJIOFOR is probably the best barometer for the strength of 12 YAS in the BP race ; I get the sense that if 12 YAS were going to win then EJIOFOR would win BA too and I just don’t see that happening, unfortunately
I’d be surprised if McConaughey loses. There’s so much going for him. The notion that Leo is better – a notion I agree with – is overshadowed by the overall McConaughey narrative.
Excellent as Blanchett is, I’ve been skeptical all along about her winning for Blue Jasmine as it’s not your typical Oscar-type role. Academy voters may respect her, but if she wins it will be a begrudging win, IMO. I see a correlation between Best Actress and a Gravity Best Picture win – which could be seen as an indirect vote for Bullock’s more popularly received performance. Regarding Amy Adams, it’s difficult for me to imagine she could win for American Hustle, but stranger things have happened. I’m still predicting Blanchett for the win.
Gravity is winning for bp and bd
Yeah, gotta hold off on predics til after the BAFTAS.
I have actually predicted Leo to win the Bafta over Ejiofor and then the Oscar.
To soon for me. BAFTA’s will be crutial.
Funny thing occured to me. Only once in history did 3 men nominated for Best Lead Actor in a Musical or Comedy got nominated for best Lead Actor at the Oscars. It was back in 1978. Dreyfuss won the Globe and against all odds he also won the Oscar. So is it possible for DiCaprio to score a suprising win, since he Dern and Bale are nominated? Dreyfuss did win the BAFTA and we already know McConaughey won’t score there, so if Leo wins in the UK, my money’s on him come the Oscars.
Has a film ever won the Sag Ensemble, Critics Choice Award for Best Picture (Comedy) and Golden Globe Award for best Picture (Comedy) but then won nothing at the Oscars? If not then ‘American Hustle’ might be the first.
I have predicted it to win Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress. However Spike Jonze and Lupita N’yongo have won the Guild awards. So David O Russell might just have to wait a little longer for that first elusive Oscar.
The Baftas will be crucial I have a feeling not just for ’12 Years A Slave’ but also for ‘American Hustle’. I don’t see ‘Gravity’ being affected that much by Bafta. Cuaron will anyway win the best director Oscar no matter what.
It is amazing the potential negative turnaround that could happen for ‘American Hustle’. Not too long ago some people thought that it would win the PGA.
‘American Hustle’ badly needed the WGA win in my view to stay in the race as a best picture contender.
I have predicted it to win Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress. However Spike Jonze and Lupita N’yongo have won the Guild awards. So David O Russell might just have to wait a little longer for that first elusive Oscar.
I think it might win in costume – I don’t think it goes home empty handed. It could also win lead actress for Amy Adams. It’s true, she could win it. Hard to believe but I know there are going to be Academy members who don’t vote for her b/c of Woody Allen. Plus, does Amy Adams have as much support as, say, Philomena? Do men vote with their dicks or their hearts? Hm.
There is “Best Sound” in addition to “Best Sound Editing” and “Best Sound Mixing”…
Weird. I tried to predict a split in Best Picture and Director between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity and an automated message popped up saying, “If you’re going to pick Gravity for Director, you must pick it for Picture as well.”
Weird. I tried to predict a split in Best Picture and Director between 12 Years a Slave and Gravity and an automated message popped up saying, “If you’re going to pick Gravity for Director, you must pick it for Picture as well.”
Funny! A great joke. 🙂