While Oscar season is a long way off, and the long march to the end of the year often discards films whose buzz can’t be sustained, a good movie is a good movie is a good movie. But we don’t always measure Oscar contenders that way. We measure them, usually, by who made them, how important they are in the business, what their career arc is. For instance, Julianne Moore in Maps to the Stars might ordinarily be dismissed for playing too controversial of “difficult” a character. But given that Moore is so long overdue for an Oscar, given her place in the industry, it’s a good bet that she’s potentially in line for a lead nod.
There are four, maybe five solid Oscar contenders for the major categories so far, without having yet seen Michel Hazanavicius’ new film, nor The Clouds of Sils Maria.
When all is said and done the film that probably has the best chance overall getting to the big show is Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher. This is a film that will likely hit all of the major nominations, starting with Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, etc. The director is usually the star of the Best Picture race and right now Bennett Miller is riding a career high.
The second possible contender for major categories would be Mike Leigh’s Mr. Turner, which should enjoy many tech nods, like Cinematography and Art Direction, but could also land for Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor.
Tommy Lee Jones’ The Homesman is a wild card. It has sadly not yet been picked up by a distributor and its Oscar chances will depend on which studio takes it. It needs a passionate advocate and with that it could go far.
David Cronenberg’s brilliant Maps to the Stars is likely going to either hit or miss with voters. Remember how The Player did the same? Maps to the Stars is even darker and uglier than The Player. If it exposes this industry as an ecosystem driven by, as John Cusack said, fear, greed and desperation, that industry might just want the movie to movie to disappear as quickly as possible. Remember, voting happens in total isolation. The Academy isn’t ready for nor open to Cronenberg’s work overall so it won’t really matter how much the critics praise it, the Academy still might reject it. Too bad, because supposedly film awards are about rewarding quality.
Here is a quick and dirty rundown of possibles:
Best Picture
1. Foxcatcher
2. Mr. Turner
3. The Homesman
Long shots: Maps to the Stars, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Best Director
1. Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher
2. Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
3. Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman
Long shot: David Cronenberg, Maps to the Stars
Best Actor
1. Steve Carell, Foxcatcher
2. Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
3. Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Best Actress
1. Jessican Chastain, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
2. Hilary Swank, The Homesman
3. Julianne Moore, Maps to the Stars
Best Supporting Actor
1. Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
2. Tommy Lee Jones, The Homesman (or lead)
Best Supporting Actress
1. Mia Wasikowska, Maps to the Stars
Original Screenplay
1. Bruce Wager, Maps to the Stars (should/could win)
2. Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner
3. E. Max Frye, Dan Futterman, Foxcatcher
4. Ned Benson, The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon 2
Foreign Language — a good many, depending on which country submits but possibly:
Run – Ivory Coast
Wild Tales – Argentina
Timbuktu – France (?)
(This category to be revisited later, after all films have been seen)
Just like at the Tony Awards, Meryl Streep will be lead at the Oscars for Into the Woods. It’s an iconic role.
This looks to me like it could be Jessica Chastain’s year.
Joseph
http://www.deadline.com/2014/05/cannes-harvey-weinstein-plans-big-oscar-push-for-eleanor-rigby-jessica-chastain-and-james-mcavoy/
Winner predictions
Foxcatcher
Bennett Miller
Timothy Spall
Jessica Chastain
Ian McKellen
Meryl Streep
Foxcatcher
The Homesman
How to train your dragon 2
The Case against 8
Mr. Turner
Mr. Turner
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Hans zimmer
Into the woods
Interstellar
Interstellar
Interstellar
Godzilla/The hobbit 3
87th Oscar predictions
Picture
Big Eyes
Boyhood
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigsby
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Hobbit: the battle of the five armies
The Hoseman
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Unbroken
Best director
Tommy Lee Jones for the hoseman
Richard linklater for boyhood
Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner
Bennett miller for foxcatcher
Christopher Nolan for interstellar
Lead actor
Steve carrell in foxcatcher
Ellar Coltrane in boyhood
Benedict cumberbatch in the imitation game
Jack O’Connell in unbroken
Timothy spall in Mr. Turner
Lead actress
Amy Adams in big eyes
Jessica chastain in the disappearance of elanor rigsby
Rosemund pike in gone girl
Hilary swank in the boseman
Reese Witherspoon in wild
Supporting actor
Robert Duvall in The Judge
Ethan Hawke in Boyhood
Ian McKellen in the hobbit: the battle of the five armies
J.K. Simmons in Whiplash
Changing Tatum in Foxcatcher
Supporting Actress
Patricia Marquette in boyhood
Marion Bailey in Mr. Turner
Viola Davis in the disappearance of Eleanor rigsby
Vanessa Redgrave in Foxcatcher
Meryl Streep in Into the Woods
Original Screenplay
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Grand Budapest Hotel
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Adapted screenplay
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigsby
Gone Girl
The Homesman
The Imitation Game
Unbroken
Animated Feature
The Boxtrolls
How to train your dragon 2
The Lego Movie
Me and My Shadow
The Princess Kuguya
Documentary Feature
The Case against 8
The Green Prince
LA Bare
Life Itself
Rich Hill
Production Design
Big Eyes
The Grand Budapest Hotel
The Imitation Game
Into the Woods
Mr. Turner
Costume Design
Birdman
The Hobbit: The battle of the five armies
Inherent vice
Into the woods
Mr. Turner
Cinematography
Foxcatcher
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
The Homesman
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Makeup
Foxcatcher
Interstellar
Into the woods
Original score
Marco Beltrami for The homesman
Alexandre Desplat for Unbroken
Trent Reznor for Gone Girl
Stephen Sondheim for Into the Woods
Hans zimmer for interstellar
Original Song
Annie
Heaven is for real
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Into the woods
The Lego movie
Film Editing
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
Gone Girl
Interstellar
Mr. Turner
Visual Effects
Godzilla
Guardians of the Galaxy
The Hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Interstellar
Maleficient
Sound Editing
Dawn of the planet of the apes
Godzilla
The hobbit: the battle of the five armies
Interstellar
Transformers: Age of Extinction
Sound Mixing
Gone Girl
Godzilla
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Transformers: Age of Extinction
I think best actor is going to be something like this:
-Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel
-Michael Keaton, Birdman
-Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
-Joaquin Phoenix, Inherit Vice
-Steve Carrell, Foxcatcher
Yes, sorry, you’re overestimating Eleanor.
Saw both films at TIFF. It’s a very small, contemporary romance.
MAYBE Chastain if it’s a weak year for lead actress – but that’s it.
P.S. I may be overestimating ‘Eleanor’ but I think we should seriously consider the possibility that the film has the kind of damn strong and appealing Oscar campaign narrative, Harvey Weinstein can campaign the hell out of.
Also, Jack O’Connell may not come close to a nod with those two films but could emerge as the frontrunner if Jolie’s Unbroken turns out to be a contender.
I think these are the contenders that had been already seen AND could be still in the conversation in December :
PICTURE / DIRECTOR / SCREENPLAY
Foxcatcher (Bennett Miller)
Mr. Turner (Mike Leigh)
Boyhood (Richard Linklater)
The Grand Budapest Hotel (Wes Anderson)
The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Ned Benson)
+ The Homesman (Tommy Lee Jones)
Honorable mentions (probably tiny chance or none at all)
Too early : The Immigrant, Belle, Tracks
Too edgy : Maps to the Stars, Night moves, Under the Skin
Too indie : The Skeleton Twins, Whiplash
Too controversial : Noah
Too lighthearted : Begin Again, Le Week-End, Laggies
ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain ( The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
Gugu Mbatha-Raw (Belle)
Wild Cards (all could be stronger contenders with other films this year)
Hilary Swank (The Homesman)
Julianne Moore (Maps to the Stars)
Keira Knightley (Begin Again)
Marion Cotillard (The Immigrant)
Mia Wasikowska (Tracks)
Honorable mentions (probably too indie for the Academy)
Kristen Wiig (The Skeleton Twins)
Lindsey Duncan (Le Week-End)
ACTOR
Steve Carell (Foxcatcher)
Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner)
Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood)
Wild Cards
James McAvoy (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
Mark Ruffalo (Begin again)
Russel Crowe (Noah)
Honorable mentions
Jack O’Connell (Starred Up, ’71)
Miles Teller (Whiplash)
Bill Hader (The Skeleton Twins)
Jim Broadbent (Le Week-End)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vanessa Redgrave (Foxcathcer)
Marion Bailey (Mr. Turner)
Patricia Arquette / Lorelai Linklater (Boyhood)
Wild Cards
Viola Davis / Isabelle Huppert / Jess Weixler (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
Grace Gummer / Miranda Otto / Meryl Streep (The Homesman)
Jennifer Connelly / Emma Watson (Noah)
Honorable mentions
Tilda Swinton (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Mia Wasikowska (Maps to the Stars)
Emily Watson (Belle)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Channing Tatum & Mark Ruffalo (Foxcatcher)
Ethan Hawke (Boyhood)
Wild Card
William Hurt (The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby)
Honorable mentions
F. Murray Abraham (The Grand Budapest Hotel)
Tom Wilkinson (Belle)
J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)
See also Jamie Foxx for Collateral, or Ethan Hawke for Training Day, to name just two more.
I think Channing Tatum will be that lead actor who gets nominated for supporting- like Julia Roberts last year.
Robert A, not “safe” as in an absolute “lock”. “Safe” as in “it’s safe to say their chances are extremely high.” I learned not to call something a lock since The Master fiasco of 2013 when I truly thought it would get at least 6, but deserving at least 10, and came away with 3. Not making the same mistake again. But given Miller’s track record I am comfortable saying it’s chances look very good. Sometimes a movie’s buzz is that strong that you know it’ll stick around to years end.
Having read three or four more reviews, it looks like in terms of likelihood to be nominated, we’re looking at Carell -> Tatum -> Ruffalo, with all three having a really good shot.
That said, I can’t help but feel that they’re going to put Carell in supporting because they think he can win there. If that happens, Tatum will have to face the inevitable onslaught of lead contenders and who knows if he can withstand that. SPC would probably be wise to wait until more of the competition shows its face before determining what categories to put the three of them
I have a hard time picturing Carell campaigning Supporting while Tatum goes Lead – after all, the poster is an outline of his face. I think it’s pretty common practice to give the most memorable major role Lead status while the ostensible main protagonist is shuffled into a supporting campaign. Think Meryl Streep/Julia Roberts in August: Osage County or even Bruce Dern/Will Forte in Nebraska. In the Oscar season following Matthew McConaughey’s unstoppable march to victory, I don’t think a nomination for Carell in Lead is hard to imagine at all if the talent is there, which by all accounts it is. And don’t forget this is Bennett Miller we’re talking about – both of his previous films managed two acting nominations. Whether or not Carell wins is an argument for a few months from now, but as I see it right now, a nomination is on the table.
“Foxcatcher I believe is safe for picture, actor and screenplay. If Miller could get Jonah Hill his first nomination, he could do the same for Tatum so I’ll give it 4 locks at the moment.”
It’s only May and we’re already talking “locks”? And Miller “could do the same for Tatum,” and yet you’re adding Tatum to the “lock” pile? I think Carell looks good for a nomination, but I don’t even consider him a “lock” yet. It’s simply too early in the game to start calling every promising candidate a “lock.”
How certain are you that Channing Tatum will belong in the lead category? How about Carrell?
If Carell is looking locked for a nomination, keeping him in lead will make sense, but given Oscar politics, the powers that be may determine he has a better shot of winning in supporting… I’ve not seen the film so I have no idea how bad a case of category fraud that would be.
Speaking of which, if Carell looks clear to get in, wouldn’t it make sense to campaign Tatum in supporting? It seems unlikely that all three would get nominated, so who falls off if it’s only one in lead and one in supporting? Ruffalo? I haven’t read any review yet that clearly differentiates which of the two is more deserving of a nomination. We could be dealing with a film like Nine, where they both have an equal chance to get in and only one of them does (like Penelope Cruz over Marion Cotillard).
Foxcatcher is either going to stick in the minds of voters like glue, or just get forgotten and swept away at the end. I predict the former, and the Steve Carell buzz might even mean he has won the Oscar already. Winning Best Actor in Cannes won’t hurt a la Christoph Waltz and Jean Dujardin.
Hmm didn’t realize Foxcatcher was an original script.
I think Mr. Turner is set for costume design and art direction. Mike Leigh is assured an original screenplay nomination, as he usually gets.
Foxcatcher I believe is safe for picture, actor and screenplay. If Miller could get Jonah Hill his first nomination, he could do the same for Tatum so I’ll give it 4 locks at the moment.