39 responses

  1. KT
    June 29, 2014

    Is the role in Gone Girl a really great part (and a lead role)? I haven’t read the book, and I know Pike has never been on the Oscar radar before (nor had a great role under her belt). Just wondering… Kind of seems more like a vehicle for Affleck/leading man.

    • Ryan Adams
      June 29, 2014

      KT, Gone Girl is a major role for Rosamund Pike. It’s Pike/Affleck sharing co-lead in every respect.

  2. KT
    June 29, 2014

    It will be the year of the Red Heads.

  3. Kane
    June 29, 2014

    KT, if you haven’t seen An Education, Rosamund Pike is very good in that role.

  4. Sonja
    June 29, 2014

    I love redheads so I wouldn’t mind.
    Go Amy!

    BTW How many redheads have won an Oscar so far? I only can think of Susan Sarandon, but I’m sure there’s more. Or not?

  5. Princess of Peace
    June 29, 2014

    Susan Hayward won an Oscar for I Want to Live. She was a readhead.

  6. adam Lewis
    June 29, 2014

    Mia is fantastic in Tracks. I found the film incredibly moving and emotional yet it’s not really about that much. Was more about the general atmosphere. Would love to see her nominated!

  7. Chris Price
    June 29, 2014

    I’m going with Moore for Maps To The Stars, even though I’m aware that the film might not play well with Academy members. But Adams has a real shot for Burton’s film, having seen it already. That is right down their lane, if decidedly not down mine. The big question mark of the year is whether one of the 3 Chastain roles pulls to center stage instead of all 3 canceling each other out. If that happens, there’s your dark horse (or possibly frontrunner). I’m not fully on board with a Pike win yet, although I’m sure she will be terrific in the film. With those 4, I’d add Witherspoon for now, but again that doesn’t get a guarantee from me until I see Wild. Swank, Chastain’s Eleanor Rigby performance and Shailene Woodley all have a shot as well (Woodley’s name should be on the ballot). Anna Kendrick has absolutely NO chance to get in for that crap, mark my words, and I don’t think Suffragette is coming out this year (neither is Carol, which would put Blanchett at the top of the contenders list). The final question of the year is, will Jennifer Lawrence be seen for Serena in time for consideration?

    Best Actress:
    Julianne Moore – Maps To The Stars
    Amy Adams – Big Eyes
    Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year
    Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
    Reese Witherspoon – Wild
    Alt. Hilary Swank – The Homesman, Jessica Chastain – Eleanor Rigby, Shailene Woodley – The Fault In Our Stars, Jennifer Lawrence – Serena (2015?)

  8. Chris Price
    June 29, 2014

    Oh and I’m counting out Wasikowska because her film is too superficially similar to Witherspoon’s big Oscar play.

  9. Lucas
    June 29, 2014

    @Chris

    But I’ve heard from other people who’ve seen the film that Adams’ part isn’t very showy. Is that true?

  10. joe
    June 29, 2014

    I’m going for Amy Adams or Julianne moore

  11. JamDenTel
    June 29, 2014

    Is Rosamund Pike a redhead? She seems quite thoroughly blonde to me. Maybe she went red-haired for Gone Girl?

    • Ryan Adams
      June 29, 2014

      JamDenTel

      The 3 red-headed actresses prominent this year provide an opportunity for a catchy headline but that’s only a jumping-off point for a more inclusive post about the entire field of the Best Actress hopefuls.

      (Real-life auburn hair notwithstanding, the character Amy Adams plays in Big Eyes is a blonde.)

  12. Chris Price
    June 29, 2014

    @Lucas,

    What her part is is damn likable, which is the number 1 path to Oscar success. Sure, its not super showy, but she’s got at least 1 or 2 “Oscar scenes” in there, and again the sympathy card will pay dividends for her.

  13. Scott (the other one)
    June 29, 2014

    I love Amy Adams, but let’s face it — almost always, the IDEA of Tim Burton movies is ten times better than the actual execution of the films. He hasn’t made a movie since Ed Wood that was not a substantial let down from what was anticipated. Sweeney Todd was decent, but not outstanding. He is virtually incapable of conveying human stories that have any actual emotional resonance. I mean, have you ever felt an emotion at one of his films, since the first few??? His movies are triumphs of art direction, costume design, and wilfully eccentric tics over any of the things that constitute actual art in filmmaking, like: story, character, and a genuine filmic visual sense that is not based sheerly on a sickening accumulation of colour, pattern, and fussiness.

    So I don’t expect that Big Eyes will actually be any good, and therefore Amy Adams, as good as she may be, will have her Oscar chances tied to “yet another disappointing Tim Burton movie”.

  14. rufussondheim
    June 29, 2014

    Minorly spoilerish for Gone Girl.

    Assuming it’s like the book, the female lead is the better role, she will get to show a wide range of emotions and she’s in a huge variety of situations. It’s a challenging role for any actress and if she’s good and the film fires on all cylinders she could be tough to beat.

  15. Tracey
    June 29, 2014

    This is a pretty white list. Any women of color rising to the top so far?

  16. rufussondheim
    June 29, 2014

    You should be watching The Leftovers.

  17. Richard B
    June 29, 2014

    I wouldn’t count out Michelle Williams in Suite Francais.

  18. Jeff
    June 30, 2014

    Is it 100% confirmed that ‘Carol’ (for Cate Blanchett) and ‘Macbeth’ (for Marion Cotillard) won’t be released until 2015?

    If that’s the case, then hopefully they’ll both make their debut at next years’ Cannes.

    • Ryan Adams
      June 30, 2014

      Jeff,

      Principle photography on Carol wrapped the 3rd week of April. Tight window to try to get it edited and through post before the festivals this Fall. Although Todd Haynes has an illustrious history of debuts in Venice.

      We also have the Harvey factor to consider. If Carol doesn’t enter the current Oscar cycle then it will mean Weinstein believes Amy Adams in Big Eyes is his ticket to the Oscars. But if we start to hear that Carol might be a late entry in time to qualify in December then this would signal that Weinstein has seen Big Eyes and knows that it’s not going to be Adams’ year.

      Incredibly, these two women-driven movies are the only ones TWC is holding for their Oscar hopefuls this year. Unless there’s a surprise at TIFF or Telluride that’s been flying under the radar for Weinstein to pick up for distribution.

      I’m secretly and crazily holding out hope that we won’t have to wait a full year to see Carol. You’re right, Cannes 2015 would be a logical launch platform — but that would still mean a theatrical release date 15 months away. Argh!

      I even had an alternate feature photo ready to substitute for the one you see at the top of the column. But I didn’t want to try to disrupt the predictions Jazz was making. Not enough evidence yet to predict Carol for 2014 — nothing but my own pipe dreams.

  19. Jeff
    June 30, 2014

    Thanks for the response Ryan.

    And, I wonder whether Jennifer Lawrence will have a serious chance for her performance in “Serena”?

    The last I read was that director Susanne Bier claimed that she was waiting for Jennifer Lawrence to finish her filming commitments on “Hunger Games” so that looping/ADR could be completed on the movie.

    Hopefully now that the “Hunger Games” movies have finished filming, that post production can finally be finished on “Serena” so it can debut at one of the Fall festivals (I assume that ‘Magnolia’ will be distributing the film, as they are also behind the film’s production).

  20. Bryce Forestieri
    June 30, 2014

    As someone already said Tim Burton hasn’t delivered in a *long* time, chances are the movie will suck, but remember this is “Best Actress”, a great movie is a nice thing to have but not required.

    And just a friendly reminder that Meryl Street is a mortal lock for UNDER THE WOODS! So limit y’allselves to come up with only other four!

  21. m1
    June 30, 2014

    “Tim Burton hasn’t delivered in a *long* time”

    Two years ago (with Frankenweenie) is not a long time.

  22. Bridgie James Rosenthal
    June 30, 2014

    Early Best Actress (in a leading role) predictions:

    Amy Adams, “Big Eyes”
    Jessica Chastain, “The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby”
    Julianne Moore, “Maps to the Stars”
    Michelle Williams, “Suite Francaise”
    Reese Witherspoon, “The Lost Boys” (not “Wild”)

    NOTE: If ever Amy Adams (five-time nominee), Jessica Chastain (two-time nominee), and Michelle Williams (three-time nominee) will make the cut, Harvey Weinstein will be in the same situation as 1997 (Best Actress nominees Helena Bonham Carter for The Wings of the Dove, and Judi Dench for (Her Majesty) Mrs. Brown), 2002 (Selma Hayek for Frida, Nicole Kidman for The Hours (a Paramount-Miramax co-production), and Renee Zellweger for Chicago), 2005 (Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents and Felicity Huffman for Transamerica), and 2011 (Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady and Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn).

  23. Bridgie James Rosenthal
    June 30, 2014

    ERRATUM:
    Reese Witherspoon, “The Good Lie” (not “Wild”)

  24. Bryce Forestieri
    June 30, 2014

    “Two years ago (with Frankenweenie) is not a long time.”

    This is true. FRANKENWEENIE was brilliant.

    In my defense though I’ll say the margin error for animation, versus the endless variables of “production”, is pretty large. Just ask any PCTOTFP*, e.g., “eh let’s animate that again…”

    I’ll also confess to loving Burton’s PLANET OF THE APES, which is nowadays a very uncool thing to admit.

    *Pixar Committee to Oversee the Final Product.

  25. Alper
    June 30, 2014

    my predictions

    1-Amy ADAMS
    2-Amy ADAMS
    3-Amy ADAMS
    4-Amy ADAMS
    5-Amy ADAMS

    I don’t need another name. Amy all the way :) good luck !!!

    and sorry for Julianne Moore. Maybe next year (just searched Freeheld movie on Google).

  26. Mariano
    June 30, 2014

    I just watched “Tracks”, and Hell YEAH, Wasikowska’s performance blown my mind, she REALLY deserves at least a nomination. She has more life behind her eyes than many actors do in their entire body.

  27. Chance
    June 30, 2014

    (I know, I know, I’m that guy in the thread)

    The new trailer for Patrick Ian Polk’s “Blackbird” is out, featuring Mo’Nique in her first substantial role since her Oscar win. http://vimeo.com/86641697

    This is drawing back the curtain on the hush-hush-we-don’t-acknowledge lifestyles of many gay black men in America.

  28. Glenn UK
    July 1, 2014

    I too have reservations about Rosamund Pike being nominated. There is nothing to go off other than she is attached to a David Fincher movie and I am not sure that Gone Girl is going to be an Oscar powerhouse. Time will tell but it certainly would not be on my radar right now until I have something more concrete.

    • Ryan Adams
      July 1, 2014

      I’ve heard something concrete. Can’t talk about it. Try to trust me. I’ve heard very good things.

  29. david
    July 1, 2014

    No love for Zoe Kazan’s performance in ‘The Pretty One’? I hope it would get some Oscar consideration

  30. Kane
    July 1, 2014

    Ryan, is that in regards to Glenn’s comment?

    • Ryan Adams
      July 1, 2014

      Kane, yes, in response to Glenn.

  31. Robin Write
    July 3, 2014

    If the three front-runners are still Adams, Moore and Chastain by next year, then there is no way I can be disappointed with the winner of that category. I suppose a slight disappointment if there is not a tie. :-D

  32. Stergios
    July 3, 2014

    If Marion Cotillard doesn’t get her second Oscar nomination this year for her heartbreaking tour de force as a Polish immigrant in ’20s New York in “The Immigrant”, there’s simply no justice at all in this world we live in. It’s almost inconceivable that she hasn’t won her second Oscar yet. For Christ’s sake, she wasn’t even nominated for “Rust and bone” or “Nine”. I mean, come on, how on Earth can she not be nominated for “The Immigrant”? It feels absolutely insane. Her performance there is gigantic, to say the least. Watching her transform into the role of Ewa Cybulska is like an otherwordly experience. She inhabits her character so completely it ends up extremely scary. It doesn’t feel like a performance at all. You find yourself thinking you’re watching the most crucial parts of her character’s tormented existence unfolding in front of your eyes. No-holds-barred, Cotillard dares to abandon herself into her role in a way no actress in the history of cinema can claim she did. It’s a marvel to watch, an unforgettable tour de force, a performance for the ages. Body and soul, she gives her all. Every single time. And I mean EVERY SINGLE TIME. And let’s face it, Cotillard is the best actress ever born (better than Katharine Hepburn, better than Meryl Streep, better than any woman who ever attempted to become an actress) and she should have had at least 15 oscar wins by now. I mean, really, let’s be honest, shall we? How can any performance by an actress be put next to a Marion Cotillard performance (let alone the one she delivers in “The Immigrant”) and being preferred? It seems almost irrational to me. This year, with two highly praised and definitely towering performances in both “The immigrant” and “Two days, one night” and the juiciest female role ever written from William Shakespeare, the one from Lady Mabeth in Justin Kurzel’s upcoming “Macbeth”, I don’t even want to imagine the possibility of her being snubbed again. I really hope Cotillard ends up being nominated and winning, but unfortunately I have my doubts, after watching the Academy snubbing her unrelentlessly all these years, after her win back in 2008 for giving the greatest performance ever by an actor, male or female, in “La vie en rose”. As for Jessica Chastain, I mean what can I say, it’s really disappointing that she hasn’t won yet. She has shown an incredible range and has come to show her abilities in full display. But I’m a little worried about the campaign strategy behing “The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby”. I hope it isn’t too baffling for voters. I haven’t seen any of the three films, but I have the feeling that the real showcase for her is “Her” and not “Them”, which obviously is the only version of the movie in circulation during awards season. I have a feeling Julianne Moore will go supporting for “Maps to the stars” and judging from the nature of the film, I doubt she has much of a chance, even for a nomination (which of course is a shame). None-the-less, she has this “due” factor that may help her grab a nomination. I’ve seen “The Homesman” and Hilary Swank is really incredible. It’s easily her best performance since her Oscar-winning turn in “Million Dollar Baby”, a tour de force of acting. But I think she has a better shot if she goes supporting. “The Fault in our stars” seems too YA to my eyes to help Shailene Woodley score her first nomination. She’s one of the greatest actresses of her generation and I think she was criminally snubbed for “The Descendants”, but I doubt she’ll earn her first nomination for Boone’s film. Of crouse, with box office numbers as high as the ones the film has scored, it is definitely within the realms of possibility. It’s a shame of course that box office numbers can influence the prospects of a performance being nominated. Sublime acting in experimental diamonds like “Under the skin” will always be out of consideration. It’s such a pity for Johansson’s amazing performance. Rosamund Pike and Carey Mulligan seem like solid bets, but I guess we’ll have to wait to see the response to their films. As for Jennifer Lawrence, if “Serena” finally comes out this year, I think it’s very likely she will be nominated again. Personally, I think she’s a tremendous young actress, aside the fact that she’s one of the most popular in the world right now and that inevitably causes many people to envy her or disregard her. In my mind, there’s no way Amy Adams wouldn’t have the Oscar this year, if it hadn’t been for Cate Blanchett’s “bigger than life” performance in “Blue Jasmine” (the fact that two of the five performances included in the Best Actress category this year at the Oscars are two of the 50 best female performances of all time is undoubtedly encouraging). Amy Adams is one of the greats and I’m pretty sure we haven’t seen anything from her yet. I’m sure she kills it again in Tim Burton’s “Big Eyes” and I really want to see her as a winner at some point , but, how can any actress put next to Marion Cotillard and being preferred? It seems almost irrational to me.

  33. Stergios
    July 8, 2014

    Don’t bother voting. Just give Marion Cotillard her second Oscar for “The Immigrant” already! I feel totally safe to say this already: If Marion Cotillard won’t get her second Oscar in A Leading Role for her gigantic performance in “The Immigrant” at the 2015 ceremony, this will be the biggest injustice in the history of Oscars. Ever. In any category.
    Her performance as Ewa Cybulska is so powerful that can overshadow any performance given by an actress of the last five years. It’s such a miracle of a performance no one’s work can even come close.

  34. Drew Williams
    July 15, 2014

    I also believe another redhead ( sometimes) will be in the ” race” Nicole Kidman for Queen of the Desert. She could very well win a Razzie for Grace of Monaco and a Oscar not ( or win) for ” Desert” She needs a comeback in the worst way.

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