First Round of Oscar Predicting by Nathaniel R.

Nat has posted his first of the year Oscar charts to get the party started right. Many of the films listed here for Best Pic have not yet been seen but still some Oscar predictors like to get their stuff out early to see whether or not they can play the guessing game to its finality. It always makes me nervous to do this – It’s hard to predict films one hasn’t yet seen, or films others haven’t seen. But all in all, we’re getting pretty good at the game. We will really know what Oscar is going to look like once Summer rolls around to a close. Any films so far seem headed for the Big Show? Hard to say. We will know more in a few months. But if you want to dive in early, head on over to Nat’s site.

15 Comments on this Post

  1. Bryce Forestieri

    I fear Weinstein has de-gayed the character and dumbed down Graham Moore’s brilliant, simmering, lean-but-not-light script, you know, to maximize AMPAS/prestige friendliness — so yeah, sounds like a good bet for the Oscars, more so once you consider all the talent behind and in front of the camera. Still though…not sure why Kiera Knightley is in this movie AT ALL?…Like, based in history, that role shouldn’t attract such a leading actress…unless -again- it’s been Weinstein-ized — so yeah, good bet for the Oscars. Low expectations for an actual good film.

  2. Christophe

    No, no, no, no, no, NO! There’s no way you take me down that road again! I’m done with the Oscars once and for all! I want to live and enjoy life, watch the films I like for pleasure or for culture, and get rid of this awful obsession of who’s going to get in and what are the first reactions from test screenings? and what do the critics say? Can it be saved by BO? How many precursor noms did it get? and does that mean it’s a lock or an outsider? Never Again!

  3. Nate is a hack

  4. Al Robinson

    I think at this point the only five I’m willing to go out on a limb for to predict as Best Picture nominees are:

    Foxcatcher – Bennett Miller
    Gone Girl – David Fincher
    Inherent Vice – Paul Thomas Anderson
    Interstellar – Christopher Nolan
    Unbroken – Angelina Jolie

    But a lot of the others look to be the ones that many others will eventually start listing themselves.

  5. Al Robinson

    But I’m also really looking forward to seeing Whiplash. I’ve heard this is one to see. Plus, I’m a fan of Miles Teller.

  6. I love Nathaniel’s blog.

  7. “to maximize AMPAS/prestige friendliness”

    Well, the same Academy nominated Milk, Brokeback Mountain, and The Kids Are All Right in this category in recent years. If The Imitation Game is good enough, I see little chance that it will miss out on a BP nomination.

  8. So, apparently Boyhood isn’t even a blip on his radar?

  9. Chrisw

    Birdman’s getting that big if buzz?

  10. Isaac David Quesada

    If I had known you were going to announce here when Nate posted it I wouldn´t have checked The Film Experience daily. Not offense to Nate, I love his blog and his podcast.

  11. david

    A movie that could be a dark horse, that finally after 2 yrs got a release date is Nick Cassavetes ‘Yellow’ comes out Aug 9

  12. David, I hadn’t heard of that movie but I just went to imdb to look it up. It strangely sounds like Half Nelson. A teacher with a drug problem, even the poster on the page looks somewhat similar to Half Nelson’s poster of Gosling standing in front of his chalkboard.

  13. Best picture
    Big eyes
    Foxcatcher
    Gone girl
    The grand Budapest hotel
    The Homesman
    The hobbit the battle of the 5 armies
    The imitation game
    Interstellar
    Mr. Turner
    Unbroken

    Director
    David fincher for gone girl
    Tommy Lee Jones for the Homesman
    Mike Leigh for Mr. Turner
    Bennett miller for foxcatcher
    Christopher Nolan for interstellar

    Actor
    Chadwick boseman in get on up
    Steve carrell in foxcatcher
    Benedict cumberbatch in the imitation game
    Tommy Lee Jones in the Homesman
    Timothy spall in Mr. Turner

    Actress
    Amy Adams in big eyes
    Jessica chastain in a most violent year
    Rosemund pike in gone girl
    Shailene woodley in the fault in our stars
    Reese witherspoon in wild

    Supporting actor
    Richard armitage in the hobbit battle of the five armies
    John Lithgow in love is strange
    Mark ruffalo in foxcatcher
    Chaning Tatum in foxcatcher
    Jk Simmons in whiplash

    Supporting actress
    Patricia arquette in boyhood
    Viola Davis in the disappearance of Eleanor Rigsby
    Lesley Manville in Mr. Turner
    Tilda swinton in the grand Budapest hotel
    Emma Watson in noah

    Adapted screenplay
    Foxcatcher
    Gone girl
    The imitation game
    The monuments men
    Unbroken

    Original screenplay
    Big eyes
    Birdman
    The Homesman
    Interstellar
    Mr. Turner

  14. Art Direction
    Big Eyes
    Exodus: Gods and Kings
    Interstellar
    Into the Woods
    Mr. Turner

    Cinematography
    Foxcatcher
    Gone Girl
    The Homesman
    Interstellar
    Mr. Turner

    Costume Design
    Birdman
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    The Hobbit: The Battle of the 5 Armies
    Into the Woods
    Mr. Turner

    Film Editing
    Foxcatcher
    Gone Girl
    The Homesman
    Interstellar
    Unbroken

    Animated Feature
    Big Hero 6
    The Boxtrolls
    How to Train Your Dragon 2
    The Lego Movie
    The Princess Kuyaga

    Documentary Feature
    The Case Against 8
    The Green Prince
    Life Itself
    Return to Home
    Rich Hill

    Makeup
    Foxcatcher
    The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Interstellar

    Original Score
    Marco Beltrami for The Homesman
    Alexandre Desplat for The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Mychel Dyenna for Foxcatcher
    Stephen Sondheim for Interstellar
    Hans Zimmer for Interstellar

    Original Song
    Annie
    The Hobbit: The Battle of the 5 Armies
    Into the Woods
    The Lego Movie

    Sound Editing
    Edge of Tommorrow
    Godzilla
    The Hobbit: The Battle of the 5 Armies
    Interstellar
    Maleficent

    Sound Mixing
    Godzilla
    Gone Girl
    Interstellar
    Maleficent
    Unbroken

    Visual Effects
    Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    Godzilla
    The Hobbit: The Battle of 5 Armies
    Interstellar
    Maleficent

  15. Cradle

    Completely missing Selma. Oyelowo, Wilkinson, Roth, Nivola, Ribisi produced by last years 12 Years winner and getting a big push from Paramount. All about MLK from two well liked Minority Sundance winners with the backing of Brad Pitt and Oprah. It’ll make noise for the cast and producer lineup alone.

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