Riffing off Kris Tapley’s early-bird predictions in the post below, how about we throw open a poll. Choose the Top 5 films you feel are most likely to make it through the process this year and be among the final nominees for Best Picture. Vote for only 5, please. I’ve expanded the list to include films you guys have already mentioned and added a couple of my own (Miracle of St Anna is the title of the Spike Lee WWII film). Feel free to suggest other titles that we’ve left out in the “write-in” box or in the comments, and if enough interest is generated then they’ll be added to the poll.
2008 Potential Best Picture Poll
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Oh My. According to us mere mortals and awards watching contigent who have in some cases nothing to do with the moviei ndustry, other than be passionate about films and the golden guy, Revolution Road is the most” oscary” film contender. Oooohh! I think I will wait a see, waving a little yeay flag in the distance.
PS: So not becoming emotionally attached to a film this year!!!
In the tradition of perez hilton!
I AM FIRST YA ALL!!!
Oh My. According to us mere mortals and awards watching contigent who have in some cases nothing to do with the moviei ndustry, other than be passionate about films and the golden guy, Revolution Road is the most” oscary” film contender. Oooohh! I think I will wait a see, waving a little yeay flag in the distance.
PS: So not becoming emotionally attached to a film this year!!!
I’m a little hesitant about Curious Case because when has a Fincher film been embraced by the Academy? I think the best cases for easy early predictions are Revolutionary Road and The Changeling… The Reader and Doubt seem more “performance” movies.
IMDB lists Shutter Island as coming out in October 2009.
A little surprised by the lack of enthusiasm for The Miracle of St Anna, but I trust you guys. The first poll we did like this last year you had No Country for Old Men on top.
Sasha and Ryan thanks for the great year. I have been a long time reader but participating in the posts this year has been a great escape from my life. Thanks again.
Doubt or Frost/Nixon is going to be in contention this year. After movies like The History Boys going nowhere it is about time one of the Broadway hits strikes big.
SHUTTER ISLAND HAS NOT EVEN BEGAN THE FILIMING PROCESS… AND ITS SCORSESE, AND ITS LISTED TO BE RELEASED IN 2009… DONT COUNT ON IT BEING RELEASED THIS YEAR
I think that people might be overestimating Revolutionary Road. It might be great but it seems like it also might be just another tale of suburban angst.
Yeah, Shutter Island is 2009.
I really don’t buy the hype for Revolutionary Road, Australia, or The Reader.
I think Milk will be embraced by the Academy so they can say they’re no longer homophobic.
Valkyrie is a turkey.
Very true about Revolutionary Road, Princess of Peace.
No guts, no glory: Mamma Mia takes everyone by surprise and becomes the next big musical to score at the Oscars.
But I wouldn’t bet money on it.
I hope with all of my herat that Frost/Nixon and and Defiance are going to exluding. Ronnny Howard and Zwick are two terribles directors.
Sorry for my terrible english
I am really looking forward to lots of good movies this year. Revolutionary Road will be entertaining and that is all I ask I am trying not to overestimate it and be disappointed. Body of Lies is another one I am holding my breath for as I love the cast. This looks like a great year for movies.
IMHO, Mamma Mia is far from “no guts, no glory”; I’m a long time hater of the musical yet even I got goosebumps over the trailer, and seeing said trailer in a crowded cinema before Sweeney Todd of all things told me all I needed to know. Just lock people in a cinema with those songs and POOF. Given this year’s artsy selection, is it really so hard to believe?
My other personal bet is on The Lovely Bones. I’m really not believing that movie needs nor plans to wait until 2009 to be released, and we all know Peter Jackson’s track record.
Where is “The Lovely Bones”? Or is that 2009?
Ah, Casper beat me to the mention. I’m fascinated by “The Lovely Bones,” and hopefully I’ll have enough time to read the novel before it comes out.
4 people have added “The Lovely Bones” as their write-in candidate, and the last voter added the note, “(I really don’t see it waiting till ’09 to be released)”
The official release date is March 13, 2009 — a week after the Oscars? Does that seem like smart strategy? Or is Jackson crazy like a fox and maybe prepared to pull a Clint with a last-minute under-the-wire premiere at the end of the year?
That March release date just feels too screwy. Wonder how quickly it would move up in vote tallies if The Lovely Bones were to be added to this poll.
BEST PICTURE NOMINEES:
Australia
Burn After Reading
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Why even wait until Jan. 2009 when you have them right here?
That release date for The Lovely Bones does smell kind of fishy.
Mr. Pasta, how do you know Valkyrie is a turkey?
I still am inclined to think Chicago 7 is going to be released by the end of ’08, even if it doesn’t start shooting until the middle of summer. That hasn’t stopped Spielberg before. And it should be an easier shoot than Munich was.
Michael Mann’s Public Enemies may depend on whether the studio likes what it sees with dailies, etc.
Isn’t the Road coming out this year? may not be smart, strategically so soon after Cormac adaptation won, but it’s gotta be more likely than reservation road/little children redux that Revolutionary Road is (I don’t think it’ll get a single nom, it’s the classic film that implodes under it’s own awards hubris.)
Well, I can’t wait to see The Lovely Bones, so it would be great if it did slip into end of the year 2008. That, Burn After Reading and Benjamin Button are three films I’m highly anticipating this year.
Casper: You may be right about Mamma Mia. With No Country for Old Men‘s win this year and The Departed last year maybe the Academy will swing in the completely opposite direction and embrace a musical, especially one with Meryl Streep.
Revolutionary Road is certainly looking to be the early favorite.
Milk may indeed be embraced as an apology for Brokeback (it may be good too).
Meirelles is sort of poised to break through with AMPAS sooner or later.
And Miracle at St. Anna. Man I’d be so happy if Spike finally got some love. This looks very baity.
Either Doubt or Frost/Nixon will be nominated, not both; and since Doubt has a much more academy friendly cast I’m predicting Frost/Nixon to get Langella a nom but not a lot more. The concept behind F/N is flawed as a cinematic basis, and -aside from a dissection of Richard Nixon- will hold very little real intrigue for American critics and audiences (ie. the whole set-up of a young British journalist going for the scoop).
Doubt on the other hand is the Pulitzer prize winner with the winning American playwright at the helm, and a much more intriguing story capable of being much more entertaining, with the possibility of several great performances.
However, although I’d pick Doubt over Frost/Nixon, I wouldn’t guarantee a BP nom for either of them; but both will certainly do well in the acting/screenwriting categories.
I’ll just go with my most anticipated:
Blindness
Body of Lies
Burn After Reading
Milk
Synecdoche, NY
While Spike Lee is way overdue for Oscar, I’m not sure a WWII movie is gonna do the trick. I’m also looking forward to The Road, but McCarthy twice in a row seems unlikely.
It’s so awesome that not even a week after the Oscars, we have a poll for 08 Pictures. Haha. I love that, and I for one am very wary of Revolutionary Road. Too many ‘Road’ movies that seemed sure things turned out to be less than stellar (ROAD TO PERDITION, RESERVATION ROAD). I feel like that Academy is trying to back off of hyped up star-driven vehicles.
I’m probably wrong, but I will say for the record that I never bought into Charlie Wilson’s War (however, I did buy into Dreamgirls).
It will be fun to see how far off everybody is. Usually for me, 1, if any, films I predict now make it to BP.
Agreed, Free. I think everyone knew early on that was doomed as an Oscar picture.
Alexander: Mr. Pasta is probably just a Cruise-basher, and that’s why he hates VALKYRIE. I personally really liked the trailer, especially Branagh’s parts (he’s gone unrecognized too long).
PUBLIC ENEMIES probably won’t come out until next year. Mann will probably want a lot of time for post-production, but I do think it could be a contender.
Definitely agree about Chicago 7. Munich took only 6 weeks and that filmed all around the world. This will largely be centered in Chicago, possibly reducing the production time even more. If anyone can film fast and have a great result, it’s Spielberg.
Same goes for STATE OF PLAY. Granted, there were the recasts and all, but I think the cast they have now is fine (that includes Ben, whose been redeeming himself of late; plus he’s a natural for a politician). Production is likely to finish by early April, and I can’t see all that much being done post-wise, so it should be ready too.
I would also add Jim Sheridan’s BROTHERS. Not only does the story look great, but the cast isn’t shabby either: Tobey Maguire, Jake Gyllennhaal, and Natalie Portman. Plus, he’s the first director to actually notice the fact that Tobey and Jake would make perfect brothers–at least resemblance-wise.
My top 20 awards-season picks are:
1) Body of Lies (my most anticipated non-summer film)
2) Valkyrie
3) State of Play
4) Chicago 7
5) Benjamin Button
6) Milk
7) The Soloist
8) The Road
9) Brothers
10) Defiance (I can definitely see Craig being nominated)
11) Argentine/Geurilla
12) The International
13) Blindness
14) Changeling
15) Crossing Over
16) Doubt
17) Revolutionary Road (I have to agree with the others on this one, but I can see Winslet being nominated)
18) Frost/Nixon (Langella and Morgan could get noms)
19) Apaloosa (Ed Harris + Viggo = must see)
20) Wall-E (maybe not best picture, but definitely best animated film and best original screenplay)
“Alexander: Mr. Pasta is probably just a Cruise-basher, and that’s why he hates VALKYRIE. I personally really liked the trailer, especially Branagh’s parts (he’s gone unrecognized too long).”
No, it’s because the trailer is terrible, Bryan Singer is a mediocre director, and Cruise hasn’t been good for years and years. Cruise has had some excellent performances (Collateral in particular), but I just don’t have any faith in him.
Defiance is also a turkey.
IMO, the one to watch is WALL-E. Disney made rumblings about Ratatouille for Best Picture, but never followed through. I think they were testing the waters for a massive WALL-E campaign next year.
However, in order for WALL-E to be competetive, it has to do two things: get almost universal adoration from critics, and make at least 300 million domestically. I have little doubt it will achieve both with ease.
Chicago 7 is in trouble right now, so I’d hold off on it until it’s actually in production.
State of Play’s buzz died when its two leads left.
I may be wrong, but I have a hunch that only one WWII film, if any, will do well at the Oscars.
Movies I have no faith in:
Valkyrie
Revolutionary Road
State of Play
Defiance
Mamma Mia! (WTF?! The trailer was one of the worst trailers for a movie I’ve ever seen)
The Duchess
Movies I have faith in:
The Argentine/Guerilla
Body of Lies
WALL-E
Doubt
Milk
Changeling
Everything else is just confusing.
Australia
Blindness
Fincher
Der Vorleser
Synecdoche
thank you Sasha and Ryan for the year.
I like your list, elessar.
You’re right about Chicago 7. Spielberg can probably shoot the riots in a few days (or nights, as it were) and the trial in a month. He’s a maniac and Michael Kahn edits like a madman. Tapley admits he had Chicago 7 as his #1 pick before the delay. He should definitely rethink knocking it out altogether because I think it’ll be out before New Year’s.
And as I said in the other thread, Tapley not admitting that Eastwood is a strong contender for Best Director–at least a nomination–is kind of bizarre. Eastwood could make Die Hard 5 with Bruce Willis and himself as John McClane’s long lost dad and he’d probably be nominated nowadays.
Mr. Pasta, I’m not much of a Bryan Singer fan, either. The trailer looks a little iffy. I’m not sure what we can think of the film yet, though.
I’m willing to jump onto the idea that Defiance probably sucks. It’s Ed Zwick for goodnesss sakes.
I’m afraid AMPAS won’t bite for The Miracle of St. Anna. The story is *really* weird and kind of “out there,” with supernatural aspects. It ain’t a war film the way Saving Private Ryan is, unless Spike Lee changes things dramatically from the novel.
Speaking of Chicago 7 and everything–what are the odds of an SAG strike really occurring? Spielberg seems to think it’s probably on.
I don’t think State of Play or Chicago 7 will be prepared in time. The latter doesn’t even have a set cast yet.
Well, DreamWorks was supposedly going to announce a cast this week but then the project got delayed… Who knows?
AUSTRALIA has all the ingredients of a great movie — an epic romance, with a historical perspective ( from the second world war) and against the backdrop of a faraway but beautiful country, as well as a topnotch creative team and cast. Baz Luhrmann, Nicole Kidman, and Hugh Jackman – a very talented trio that could produce the movie of the year! Moulin Rouge, Virginia Woolf, and Wolverine in other incarnations
State of Play is likely to finish filming by April. How is that too late? I doubt that post-production would be that long and involved. So what if Norton and Pitt left, the story still looks great. Plus, Crowe’s WAAAY better than Pitt.
The trailer for VALKYRIE was just fine. The fact that mr. pasta didn’t like it is immaterial. Alexander, you’re also forgetting the sterling supporting cast and the fact that it’s written by Chris McQuarrie (who gave us USUAL SUSPECTS).
I happened to like the DEFIANCE trailer and will gladly stand beside Mr Zwick in defying
any basher.
That’s a good point about Chris McQuarrie, elessar. And the supporting cast *is* good.
I’m sorry, maybe I’m just blind, but where is this fabled poll? *feels incompetent*
I’m backing
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
Milk
Synecdoche, New York
Miracle at St Anna
Although Defiance has lost of things the Academy loves: A big male star (Craig); a big male actor (Schreiber); a cute young star who can act (Bell); a beautiful ingenue who can act (Davalos); an Oscar-winning–albeit as producer–director (Zwick); a respected non-fiction book as source material; and Poland during the Second World War as backdrop. And reports are that it will actually be a good film.
Finn BV,
The poll is displayed in JavaScript.
Anybody else having trouble viewing it?
I’ll post a Flash version of the poll here. It’s data will combine with votes already collected. If anyone is having trouble seeing that one too, let me know, ok?
Finn BV, you might have Java disabled in your browser settings. It might be possible to turn it on in your “Tools” menu someplace. Keep me posted on what works for you and what doesn’t. The new site design has lots of improved functionality and is still being refined by Sorceress Sasha.
Mr. Pasta, generally a good rule not to declare a film a turkey until after you’ve seen it. And calling Bryan Singer a mediocre director is absurd. Uneven maybe, but I’ll take USUAL SUSPECTS, X-MEN and X2 over most “great” films any day.
I changed the Java Poll to Flash format.
Now the other half you can’t see it I bet
Got it Ryan, thanks! Safari has been acting up lately — I’ve gotten the same message at YouTube that I need to update my Java, when it works just fine in Firefox. Thanks.
I went with
Blindness
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Synecdoche, NY.
Spielberg’s Trial of the Chicago 7 wil rule them all!
it seems like every time I come on this site, it has a new look! Finn BV, your choices are probably closest to mine. I almost went with Synedoche, but then I thought the academy loves Kaufmann’s scripts and the performances, but doesn’t seem to like the films enough to nominate them, so I went with Doubt instead. As for Benjamin Button, I didn’t think it would be serious enough for AMPAS, so I went with Crossing Over. I was also almost tempted to add Hamlet 2 to the list as the Juno/Miss Sunshine choice, but I resisted.
Winged Creatures anyone? This looks to be the next Babel or maybe the next Crash.
I’m afraid AMPAS won’t bite for The Miracle of St. Anna. The story is *really* weird and kind of “out there,” with supernatural aspects. It ain’t a war film the way Saving Private Ryan is, unless Spike Lee changes things dramatically from the novel.
-Alexander
This just made that movie MUCH more interesting for me.
The Reader is still supposed to come out this year
Seven Pounds with Will Smith
Life if Hot In Cracktown
The Road
Smart People
Cadillac Records-Jeffrey Wright and Adrien Brody, hopefully Beyonce will only have minimal screen time.
Incendiary
Burn after Reading
Push-Lee Daniels NY Times did an article on it.
You guys do realize that Doubt is from the director of Joe vs. the Volcano, yes? And the writer of Congo? Sure hope that play was good.
Doubt is a great play.
FYI: No Country for Old Men is from the directors of The Ladykillers; Michael Clayton is from the writer of Armageddon; Juno stars the girl from X-Men: The Last Stand; and the cinematographer of There Will Be Blood was the DP of The Hand That Rocks the Cradle.
Australia all the way, and how about a nomination for Mr Baz Luhrmann for once this time!
australiamovie.net
Well my choice is next
The Argentine
Doubt
Mamma Mia!
Revolutionary Road or Reader
… Benjamin Button
or … Chicago 7 (if it’s done in time)
I’d resist Australia for now, it seems to be very much in the Atonement/Dreamgirls/Memoirs of a Geisha mold; however, the quasi-dark-cerebral-independent vibe, cut through with a dash of gratingly hip, cheeriness isn’t working particularly well for the academy (see ratings and press coverage), so depending on how Luhrmann’s new artistic endeavour works with audiences ( and of course critics), I could definitely see a return to an English Patient/Titanic/Shakespeare in Love/Chicago vibe.
I’m probably way off, and a lot of the promising work that is being talked of would have to fail pretty badly to take them out of contention, but this inevitably will happen, so I guess this is my insurance policy.
1)AUSTRALIA – Baz Luhrmann will be the epic romance of 2008
2)WOLVERINE
3)THE READER
4)THE LIST
It is far too early to pick for me. Hughima, what are you smoking? Wolverine?
Too early! But I voted for Australia, because I think Baz Luhrmann is a genius.
My ridiculously early predictions:
The Miracle at St. Anna (Spike Lee hasn’t made a splash in a while, this could be a come back)
Body of Lies (after American Gangster got nothing last year I think AMPAS feels they owe Ridley)
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (most Oscar-friendly project Fincher has ever done)
Synechdoche, New York (despite the early release date)
The Brothers Bloom (I honestly think this could be the next Pulp Fiction: a young up-and-coming director-screenwriter who has one critically praised independent release under his belt with a cult following, releases his sophomore effort with a bigger budget to do what he wants and studio backing, along with a great cast, this time including Adrien Brody, Mark Ruffalo, Rachel Weisz, Rinko Kikuchi and Maximillian Schell. I’m calling it, this one won’t be overlooked come Oscar season)
THIS MOVIES WILL BE IN THE OSCARS 2009!
AUSTRALIA
DOUBT
REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
THE READER
BLINDESS
BODY OF LIES
THE LOSS OF A TEARDROP DIAMOND
WHILE SHE WAS OUT (please a kim basinger nom)
THE EDGE OF LOVE
MAMMA MIA
CHANGELING
TWO LOVERS
APALOSSA (hope for renee’s big return)
THE DUCHESS
THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON
VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA
THE BROTHERSS BLOOM
ELEGY
HAPPY GO-LUCKY
THE TIME TRAVELER’S WIFE
GOOD LUCK EVERYOOOONE!
Last Chance Harvey (Emma Thompson and Dustin Hoffman on The Road to Oscarville. With those two in the car, for the 2nd time together, can a Best Pic nom be up The Road just a bit?)
plus
Synecdoche, New York
Grey Gardens
Blindness
all 3 seem capable of drawing in an Oscar nom or two, maybe even for Best Pic
Mamma Mia!–can’t wait! If just right and only just so, a Best Pic nom can happen here… Take a Chance on This, When All is Said and Done, It’s Money, Money, Money
My big prediction right here
Renee is up for a Nomination for Appalossa!!!!
and a little place in me is also saying Amy Adams…(In which she plays a nun)!
and i am really really hoping Kate Winslet wins an Oscar this year…I mean Hilary Swank has two and she has none!
Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind anyone?
Evan,
Of the 3 movies you mentioned, one received a nom and the other 2 were damn close. It’s not off-base to think that several nominations will be in order for Australia, like Atonement, and so predicting a slot in the top 5 is very safe at this point. There is always one movie that makes it in because it’s beautiful.
What about Leatherheads? George Clooney is an excellent director.
What kind of stuff are you talking about? I didn’t get a word of it! I’ve never understood people, who spend their time on commenting stuff like that.
Oh man! Are you all still here? I thought this is not an interesting topic anymore! Visit other sources!
I wonder if anyone has read the script for Miracle at St Anna? It is great; and from those who’ve seen footage and pre-screenings,they say the acting is superb (as in all Spike Lee Joints!),the cinematography great and the art direction stunning.Lee himself descibes it as an epic, reminiscent of a David Lean work.
I hope WALL-E ends up on the Best Picture Nod. If it doesn’t I will not watch the oscars.
I also like to see the Dark Knight end up on the category, but I’m not giving it too much support because it is the most overrated movie in history. Still, I love that movie.
What is it about animated movies to discriminate? Finding Nemo should have receive a Best Picture nod long ago. It had great storytelling. Are people saying that if WALL-E was completely live action, then it deserves the nod?
WALL-E is waay better than Shrek. WALL-E is certainly not funnier than Shrek, but Shrek is what it is, a majorily comedy, while WALL-E focused more on a unique storyline. Plus WALL-E costed 180,000,000 to make. So many people worked so hard on it. Ben Burtt did amazing sound design, Stanton wrote his most daring script, the computer graphics were realistic, Newman did a beautiful themed score, etc.,etc.
I also find WALL-E to be better than Beauty and the Beast. That was a great movie, but WALL-E told the better story.
WALL-E is not one of the bloated romance films like the overrated Titanic. Titanic did nothing but circled around Jack and Rose romance. There were many things going on beside WALL-E’s and EVE’s romance- There was a legathic society, a polluted Earth, and machines discovering life. And WALL-E romance with EVE affected humanity.
If WALL-E doesn’t show up on the Best Picture category, I will never watch the Oscars again. Mark my words.
WALL-E is no animated film. Saying that is discriminating. WALL-E is a movie.