Last minute here in the stretch:
Here are my predictions for today’s nominations. Generally I don’t expect a huge amount of surprises although I have stuck my neck out three times in the top eight categories (by my reckoning). In terms of a general feel I don’t see any film hitting double-digit nomination totals. My gut is telling me that ‘Ben Button’s support is weaker than we imagine so talk of 12 or 13 nominations is not convincing me. Anyway, here they are …
Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternative: Gran Torino
I really see no reason to stick my neck out here. If anything surprises I expect the Academy’s genre-biases will get the better of ‘TDK’ and Clint will pull off another stealth nomination for ‘Gran Torino’.
Achievement in directing
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (David Fincher)
The Dark Knight (Christopher Nolan)
Frost/Nixon (Ron Howard)
Milk (Gus Van Sant)
Slumdog Millionaire (Danny Boyle)
Alternative: The Wrestler (Darren Aronofsky)
Again, I see no reason to upset the orthodoxy. If someone does surprise I don’t think it’ll be Clint, Stephen Daldry or Sam Mendes. More likely I suspect is Darren Aronofsky for the visual style he brought to ‘The Wrestler’ or a veteran, namely Woody Allen or Mike Leigh.
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Clint Eastwood in Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor
Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn in Milk
Mickey Rourke in The Wrestler
Alternative: Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Pitt has received all the precursor nominations – Globe, BFCA, SAG, and Bafta – so I’m crazy for picking him for the snub right? Well, possibly. Preferential ballots matter though and I think the five predicted performances will all have their share of voters who feel they were the best of the year (and hence 1st/2nd placements on ballots). Pitt might be on more ballots than Jenkins and maybe Eastwood but probably no higher than 4th on the vast majority of them. That’s my reasoning, now watch it come unstuck!
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins in Happy Go Lucky
Angelina Jolie in Changeling
Meryl Streep in Doubt
Kate Winslet in Revolutionary Road
Alternative: Kristin Scott Thomas in I’ve Loved You So Long
First let me say that I feel Melissa Leo is a distant prospect. I got burned by failing to predict her at SAG but, if this makes sense, the nom didn’t surprise me. An Oscar nom would despite her precursor attention because I don’t feel she has the support base in AMPAS that she has in SAG. So, between the remaining six, I chose to omit Scott Thomas because – whilst she was simply outstanding – the performance hasn’t gotten a huge amount of traction. Hawkins on the other hand has wins from: NSFC, Satellites, Boston, NYFCC, LAFCA, NYFCO, San Francisco, AWFJ, WFCC, Oklahoma and the Globes. The NY/LA double win is particularly significant and I think she’ll have a lot of 1st/2nd place support on ballots. I remain confident about the other four women.
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Josh Brolin in Milk
Robert Downey, Jr. in Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman in Doubt
Heath Ledger in The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon in Revolutionary Road
Alternative: Dev Patel in Slumdog Millionaire
I was settled on this category some weeks ago but I’m taking the plunge. Yes Dev Patel seems likely given the ‘Slumdog’ momentum. But perhaps some will consider him lead and the vote may get split. So I am taking the plunge with Michael Shannon and a performance that I feel was so good, it may surprise on merit alone. The other four contenders seem fairly certain.
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams in Doubt
Penelope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis in Doubt
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler
Kate Winslet in The Reader
Alternative: Taraji P. Henson in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I have been settled on this line-up for a few weeks. Cruz, Davis and Winslet seem safe to me (I don’t think Winslet will have vote-splitting issues because she has two performances that have been fairly clearly demarcated throughout the season). Tomei is solid and sexy in ‘The Wrestler’ and plays Oscars old fave – a hooker with a heart of gold. Adams gets in over Henson for me because I have this gut feeling that ‘Ben Button”s support isn’t as deep as it might be. So where it’s on the margins I think it could be pushed out. Just a feeling.
Screenplay written directly for the screen
In Bruges
Milk
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
The Visitor
Waltz with Bashir
Alternative: The Wrestler
I am going NGNG in this category and predicting two surprises. ‘In Bruges’ had one of the sharpest, funniest scripts of the year and ‘Waltz with Bashir’ seems to have some considerable support so I take the plunge with them alongside three more obvious contenders. ‘The Wrestler’, ‘Burn After Reading’, ‘Wall-E’, ‘Happy Go Lucky’, ‘Rachel Getting Married’ and ‘Gran Torino’ are probably all more likely than my two gambles though!
Screenplay based on material previously produced or published
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternative: Revolutionary Road
I still think Justin Raythe’s exceptional work will sneak in here but I can’t figure out who to drop. Ultimately, ‘Ben Button’ and ‘Slumdog’ seem sure and I think the two stage adaptations will make the cut. Despite the WGA nom for ‘TDK’ I think the final slot is between the two literary adaptations and side with David Hare given his Globe inclusion.
Achievement in art direction
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Alternative: Slumdog Millionaire
The period nominations handed out by the ADG to ‘Ben Button’, ‘Changeling’, and ‘Frost/Nixon’ seem prescient. Michael Corenblith’s work on the latter should emulate the interior work on ‘American Gangster’ last year. Elsewhere, the momentum I believe is behind ‘TDK’ should result in a solid tally of tech noms and although the sets are more contemporary than fantasy I think they’re in. Given the greater willingness to include fantasy features here (versus costumes) I am picking Guy Dyas to finally land that first nom for ‘Indiana Jones’. Finally, ‘Slumdog’ is a genuine upset possibility with its momentum and its vibrant sets.
Achievement in cinematography
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Claudio Miranda)
The Dark Knight (Wally Pfsiter)
The Reader (Chris Menges/Roger Deakins)
Revolutionary Road (Roger Deakins)
Slumdog Millionaire (Antony Dod Mantle)
Alternative: Australia (Mandy Walker)
This *seems* the easiest tech category to call but a five-for-five match with the ASC seems a little improbable. That being said, who falls out? Possibly ‘RR’ or ‘The Reader’. But who replaces them? ‘Australia’, ‘Changeling’, and ‘Milk’ seem the most likely. Also, the Academy has shunned digital photography in the past so ‘Ben Button’ may not be as safe as some think.
Achievement in costume design
Australia
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Duchess
Revolutionary Road
Alternative: The Other Boleyn Girl
‘Ben Button’ seems a lock; Wolsky is a respected veteran they’ll want to include; ‘The Duchess’ is the sort of prestige-period piece they cannot resist; ‘Changeling’ saw numerous 1920s-era costumes; and ‘Australia’ featured costumes that were bright and dominant throughout. The more muted designs of ‘Milk’, ‘Doubt’, and even ‘The Dark Knight’ may suffer in a category known for bright and intricate. Period pieces ‘The Reader’ and ‘The Other Boleyn Girl’ (they do love Sandy Powell) are serious contenders.
Achievement in film editing
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Iron Man
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Alternative: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Leaving ‘Ben Button’ off my predictions is risky but I really felt it could have been far more briskly paced and edited and I feel enough Academy members will feel the same way. I suspect the film will underperfom at the nominations – taking a total of 8 or 9 rather than 12 or 13. The other four Best Picture likelihoods I do not hesitate to include and I round it out with ‘Iron Man’ because it was a highly respected film that featured some classy and very ‘obvious’ editing.
Achievement in makeup
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
Tropic Thunder
Alternative: The Reader
A tough category to call from a very strong bake-off list. I suspect that ‘Ben Button’ and ‘Tropic Thunder’ will score given the prevelance of the makeup in those movies and the sheer quality of them. If the digital-input on ‘Ben Button’ was a significant issue I suspect it’d have been weeded out by now. For the third slot my feeling is that ‘The Wrestler’ is unlikely and that, in the battle of the movies showcasing ageing ‘The Reader’ trumps ‘Synecdoche’ because of its broader support in general. That being said this category throws up left-field contenders. ‘The Dark Knight’ featured iconic makeup although it was primarily focused on one character. I’m going to take the plunge and include ‘Hellboy II’ because it simply deserves a nom. Yes the first installment failed to secure a nomination but, what the hell, second time lucky maybe?
Achievement in music – original score
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Alexandre Desplat)
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull (John Williams)
Revolutionary Road (Thomas Newman)
Slumdog Millionaire (A.H. Rahman)
Wall-E (Thomas Newman)
Alternative: Milk (Danny Elfman)
‘Ben Button’ and ‘Slumdog’ seem the most sure nominees of the bunch. Joining them I am predicting Thomas Newman for ‘Wall-E’ where the music was integral to the movie. I refuse to bet against John Williams, I just will not stand against those odds! And finally, I have Newman again for ‘Revolutionary Road’. This is a boring line-up I know. Danny Elfman, Zimmer/Howard (for ‘TDK’) and, I think, Rachel Portman (‘The Duchess’) are highly possible.
Achievement in music – original song
Bolt (‘I Thought I Lost You’)
Gran Torino (‘Gran Torino’)
Slumdog Millionaire (‘Jai-Ho’)
Wall-E (‘Down to Earth’)
The Wrestler (‘The Wrestler’)
Alternative: High School Musical 3: Senior Year (‘I Want It All’)
I hope that ‘HSM3’ can claw a nomination here as I must admit to being a fanboy of that series! But the five I have predicted are uncontroversial and I suspect the Academy will include them, or most of them. Should they stop at three nominees I imagine ‘Slumdog’ and ‘Torino’ will miss out. Should they stop at four? Well then ditch ‘Torino’.
Achievement in sound editing
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man
Wall-E
Alternative: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I imagine ‘TDK’, ‘Iron Man’ and ‘Wall-E’ are fairly safe bets here. ‘Indiana Jones’ might not have received the best critical reception but the sound work was top drawer as always with Spielberg films and I expect it to make the shortlist. Then I am struggling but opt for ‘Defiance’ beacuse of its war-time action. Of course ‘Ben Button’, ‘Valkyrie’, ‘Slumdog’ and ‘Quantum of Solace’ are also possible.
Achievement in sound mixing
The Dark Knight
Defiance
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
Wall-E
Alternative: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Once again ‘TDK’, ‘Iron Man’ and ‘Wall-E’ seem like safe bets whilst ‘Slumdog’ featured very prominent sound and I expect it’ll score here too. The fifth slot is tough. I could see ‘Mamma Mia!’ getting in (quite seriously) but more likely are ‘Australia’, ‘Ben Button’, ‘Defiance’, ‘Indiana Jones’ or ‘Quantum of Solace’. I am picking Ed Zwick’s movie because his past efforts have good track records for sound nominations and, again, the war-time drama.
Achievement in visual effects
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Iron Man
Journey to the Center of the Earth
Alternative: The Dark Knight
‘Ben Button’ and ‘Iron Man’ are safe here I think. The third slot is tough to call and although ‘TDK’ could get in due to momentum I think that voters have shifted more toward CGI in this category than traditional effects based work. ‘Australia’ and ‘The Mummy’ seem unlikely, especially given the failure of the latter’s predecessors to make the cut. That leaves ‘Hellboy II’ and ‘Journey to the Center of the Earth’ and I am perhaps being silly in predicting the latter given the 3D visuals but, there you go!
Animated feature
Kung-Fu Panda
Wall-E
Waltz with Bashir
Alternative: Bolt
Foreign language film
The Baader Meinhof Complex (Germany)
The Class (France)
The Necessities of Life (Canada)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
Documentary feature
Encounters at the End of the World
Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
They Killed Sister Dorothy
Documentary short
The Conscience of Nhem En
Downstream
The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
Alternatives (if they stretch to 5): David McCullough: Painting with Words; The Final Inch
Nomination tally
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button – 9
Slumdog Millionaire – 8
The Dark Knight – 8
Frost/Nixon – 6
Milk – 6
Doubt – 5
Revolutionary Road – 5
Wall-E – 5
Iron Man – 4
Changeling – 3
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull – 3
The Reader – 3
The Wrestler – 3
Defiance – 2
Gran Torino – 2
Tropic Thunder – 2
Vicky Cristina Barcelona – 2
The Visitor – 2
Waltz with Bashir – 2