It’s become kind of the usual story now to see the expected get upended during the Oscar race. Much of it is that we set up our own expectations based on several factors, like box office, reviews, buzz. But we also know that voters vote entirely on their own, anonymously, with no real consequences either way for those votes.
Over at the Hollywood Reporter, Carolyn Giardina is about to get hit with a shitstorm she probably never saw coming once the Toy Story 3 fans get ahold of her piece. In it, she writes:
Can dark horse How To Train Your Dragon overtake¬†Toy Story 3‘s momentum to claim the Oscar for animated feature?
It was a question that entered some minds at the Visual Effects Society Awards, Tuesday at the Beverly Hilton. At the VES Awards, Dragon swept all three categories for animated features: Outstanding animation, outstanding effects animation and outstanding animation character (Toothless).
The Annies take place this Saturday, she adds, which could bring a whole slew of accolades Dragon’s way. She writes:
Earlier this year, Disney and Pixar announced they would no longer participate in the annual awards because of their concerns over how the event is judged. The procedures were such that anyone who bought a membership in the organization was eligible to vote, and Disney contended that has favored DreamWorks in recent years. Disney and Pixar didn’t submit entries for this year’s Annies, according to a well placed source (though a jury can add a film that wasn’t entered, according to ASIFA).
I always worry when a contender seems like the most reliable bet in the race. Earlier I thought a few contenders had the win walking through the door. They were: Colin Firth, Best Actor for The King’s Speech, Inception for Visual Effects and Toy Story 3 for Animated Feature. I will now add a few others: The King’s Speech for Picture, Director and Screenplay. I still think Toy Story can’t lose because it is winning for the whole series, not just the one movie – because it’s made over $400 mil and is the film with the highest reviews neck and neck with The Social Network (but then again, as the latter proves, it’s not always about the reviews, eh?). It has broad support within the Academy, nominated by several different branches, screenplay being the most telling of those, not to mention BEST PICTURE. I guess you could say, when an ani film is up for Best Picture? It’s a done deal.
But I suppose I’d be sweating a little if I were the peeps at Disney — mainly because Dragon IS so good. Side by side they are both great movies.