Reader Marshall Flores has done the research and delivers the stats.¬† Director wins. That doesn’t mean the same will play out this year, of course.¬† It just means that when you hear people say “the film with the most nominations wins most often.” True, but only if the film also wins director. Without a director win, it is much more rare than a film without the most nominations but a strong director at the helm. As you’ll see.
Marshall writes, “Starting in 1929 (skipping 1928 b/c there were two winners in both BP and BD), Director has matched BP 62 out of 81 times (77%), while the film with the most nominations has won BP 56 out of 81 times (69%).
Obviously, there’s a lot of overlap with Directing wins and having the most nominations. There are 17 films that won BP and BD w/o being the nomination leader: All Quiet on the Western Front, It Happened One Night, How Green Was My Valley, Casablanca, The Lost Weekend, Hamlet, The Bridge on the River Kwai, My Fair Lady, A Man for All Seasons, Midnight Cowboy, Annie Hall, Ordinary People, Silence of the Lambs, A Beautiful Mind, Million Dollar Baby, The Departed, and Slumdog Millionaire.
The 9 films that won BP and were nomination leaders without winning Direction: Cimarron, Mutiny on the Bounty, The Great Ziegfeld, The Life of Emlie Zola, Rebecca, Driving Miss Daisy, Shakespeare in Love, Gladiator, and Chicago.”
Chart after the cut.