Contests

Winner

Actually our contest produced TWO WINNERS in the Oscar contest. Jason Simpson, who missed only editing and director, and Lorenzo Cusano who missed original screenplay and animated feature. The new tallys are below.

Previously: Unfortunately, there were virtually no surprises except Best Animated Feature. How closely you aligned yourself with the general consensus the better you did. The short categories, the doc category and the foreign language film category will no longer offer surprises because you don’t have to see all of the nominees anymore. Thus, those categories should be similar to the other categories — mostly predictable.

When voters were required to see all five nominees in those select categories, you really did have to watch them to predict them and in those years many surprises would often emerge.

Big Hero 6 topping How to Train Your Dragon 2 was the big shocker of the night. I am qualified to say what happened there or how those votes were generated and by whom. It could be resistance to voting for a sequel – which no one in the Academy likes to do.

Otherwise, it was general consensus all the way plus Birdman. If you were a Birdman fan and you went with general consensus you did very well. In Contention’s Kris Tapley has the highest score I can find of the predictors — he went with Birdman in the top categories and the general consensus everywhere else, missing only four.

Right behind with 21 are the runners-up:
Patrick Stumpe
ale mendoza
Renard Bansale
Maria Carvalho
Drew Winser
Viroj Suttisima
Jordan Holland
Ednardo Santos
Carsten Kurpanek
Chris Schleicher
Paulo Matos
Philip Gallegos

And the winners with 20 are:
Rodney Worshm
William Bearden
Viktor Kovács
Patricia de Carvalho
Daniela Diaconu
Corina Sirca
Stephen Coloritos
Michael Dalton
Victor Garcia
Sarp E
Bohdan Kozar
David DiMiele
Jeremy Eggleston
Barry Callahan
Arturo Madrigal Verduzco
Zach Macias
Ankur Verma
Chris Esser
Justin VALENTINI
Gautam Anand
Jason Park
Robert Dimitri
Alex Rodman
Vincent Moreno
Leandro Martins
Gustavo Martins
Pat Kelley
Cristina Molina
Renard Bansale
Drew Winser
Kamila Azevedo
Chris Pastor
David Webb
Amir Siregar
Carsten Kurpanek
Joe Stemme
Charles Trotter
Alan Michaels
Trish Mistric
Catherine Stebbins
Hector Delgado Jr.
Kevin Reed
Steven Short
Steven Brown
Dave Yen
George Geanopulos
William Fath
Shane Slater
Roberto Moreno
Ralph Moscato
Joe Hiegel
Craig Stoll
Christopher Calla
Diane Stepanek
FABIEN PAUL
Oliver Davidson
Margaret Zadouri
Michele Innocenti
Lane Richins
Tom M
Anita E
pete heighway
Rosana P
Mike Cersosimo
Greg Feasel
Sefa Emekli
Natália de Paula do Nascimento
Ian Boyd
Peter Chumo
Peter Chumo
Kim Pedersen
L Hagens
Parth Majmudar
Filipe Eleuterio
Sean Aminali
Matthew Toomey

The winner of the Spirit Award contest with 15 is:

Andres Arteaga

For the winners of both contests (Lorenzo Cusano, Jason Simpson and Andres Arteaga only), please send an email to awardsdaily@gmail.com

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As you know, our files were all corrupted so we lost of the data on these contests. But if anyone out there entered and has a return receipt, please post your high score here in the comments.

BAFTA:
With 19 out of 24, Alexandru Donca wins our contest.

With 18:
Luis Diego Porras
Chavel Dixon
Dion Blackler
Anthony Barstow
Ryan Leong
Ednardo Santos

Congratulations!

And our cobbled together DGA contest (there may be forms out there with better scores!) only produced winners with a score of three. And those are:

Kelly Doucette
Andre West
Zach Rosenthal
krzysiek
Enrique Castillo

BAFTA

The good news is that the BAFTAs haven’t happened yet – the bad news is we lost our old contest forms during a website hack that occurred yesterday. That means if you’re still interested in predicting the BAFTAs you can either use the return receipt that was sent to you to calculate your own score or you can re-enter here. Good luck!

(Thanks to Craig and Ryan for helping to put it back together)



86th

Please enter now – if you entered before yesterday you can either enter again below or else use the return receipt you received the first time. Good luck!



BAFTA

This Sunday, the British Academy will have their say as to what will win. Predicting the BAFTAS is always a tricky thing to do because they genuinely can be unpredictable. Making them even more unpredictable is that their voting practices have changed so many times over the years that it’s hard to find any sort of patterns. For instance, they pushed their date to be before the Oscars only in 2000. In 2012 they swapped their nomination procedure to being more like the Oscars, wherein the various branches chooses the nominees and the whole body votes for the winners. Before that they did it in the opposite fashion.

So, to a degree, they should be easy to predict, right? The consensus is, so far, the consensus. In 2012, they went for Argo and last year they went for the agreed upon split between Alfonso Cuaron for Director and 12 Years for Picture. Since our own Academy has an ongoing love affair with all things British, they keep nominating British people, thus the Oscars are full of British voters, which makes the BAFTAs fairly reliable in terms of picking potential upsets.

This site has their predictions up and they’re going for:

Boyhood/Linklater
Imitation Game for Adapted Screenplay
Grand Budapest for Original
Rosamund Pike for Best Actress
Eddie Redmayne for Best Actor
JK Simmons and Patricia Arquette for supporting

The only real surprise there is that there is no Birdman in any of the major categories. I’m not sure that’s how it will go but if it does, you can probably scratch Birdman off your list for Best Picture win at the Oscars.

I am not so sure it will go that way. I think it could split but I just don’t know which way it will split. I just don’t know how popular Birdman is at the BAFTAs. I do know it also does not have an editing nomination there. Grand Budapest Hotel seems to be their favorite movie as it’s represented in nearly every category.

That makes me wonder if Wes Anderson might not pick up the top prize there. Since Budapest beat Birdman at the Globes that is also a peculiar development in the race. Birdman is popular with the actors, for sure, and they make up the Academy’s largest branch. Birdman also beat the other films at the PGA, but they use a preferential ballot and BAFTA does not.

Budapest is going to take votes away from some movie – I just don’t know which.

The only lament I have and hope that it will come true is that the BAFTA will not follow the usual pattern of awards season by not awarding Gillian Flynn for Gone Girl just because it lacks an Oscar nod. The entire awards race should not always bow down to the Motion Picture Academy. I do not think that puts thousands of minds to good use. I hope they resist the urge to fold under the limited consensus.

I will be sitting this one out because I really have no skill when it comes to predicting the BAFTAs. I never have, in fact. Hardly anyone ever gets them right.

But here is your chance to be a shot if YOU know how they will go.

[please check back in a bit – we’re upgrading the software – apologies!]

predictsag

Those who correctly predicted all five of the film categories:

Brian Perry
Chavel Dixon
Jesus Alonso
Elias Benavidez
carl papa
Gregor Rebolj
sardor nuritdinov
Daniel Kenealy
Frank Gannon
John Moore
Brian Schwartz
Memo Serrano
Leif Delatorre
Dean
Demian Bittencourt
Cengiz Dokumaci
Lucas Silva
Greg Davidson

Congratulations!

And those who did the best overall, including television:

Thomas Meier got 11 out of 13

And those who got 10 out of 13:

Jon Carter
Larry Blumenthal
John Oliver
Joshua Clement
Silvia Pizarro
Dillon Lacina
Isai Rivera Blas
Rodrigo JP
carl papa
Leif Delatorre

Congratulations!

pga-awards

Here are the winning names who got the highest scores, 7 right out of a possible 8, all missing only Best Picture.

João Valverde
Zach Rosenthal
Mikhail Shurygin
Roberto Ruggio
Danilo Albuquerque
Wade Roberts
Nick Hinman Nick Hinman

And here are the 7 people who correctly predicted Birdman to win:

Gustavo Naspolini
Benjamin Martinez Navarro
Luis Diego Porras
Keir Basilio
José Ortega
ramón regalado

While we’re on the subject — here is the corrected list of Academy nomination winners – there were some mistakes before.

85 Away Waharika
84 Nichoas Chung
84 Matt Dittes

pga

Since the preferential ballot was enacted, the Producers Guild has been the decider after the flurry of critics and Golden Globe awards. Whether Boyhood is the frontrunner will be decided on Saturday. This is the big one that should decide the Best Picture race. It has gone to the PGA winner 100% of the time since they expanded to 10 nominees. The reason is that the Oscars and the PGA both use the preferential ballot to pick winners, where the DGA and SAG use a weighted ballot.

The key to last year’s 12 Years a Slave winner is that it was likely a number one AND a number two movie. Gravity was probably more a number one than a number two. Maybe even a number one or lower down the list. Boyhood has the distinct advantage with a preferential ballot where a divisive film would not. Even if Birdman wins the SAG ensemble the next day, the PGA is still the most important award.

Last year it was a coin toss because 12 Years a Slave and Gravity – for the first time in their history there was a tie. But Argo, The Artist, The King’s Speech, and The Hurt Locker all won the PGA before going on to win Best Picture.

Anyone who thinks the vote will split will find signs here first.

I can’t imagine any film beating Boyhood on any of these major awards. It’s well=liked but more than that, it was made over a 12 year period, a producing feat unlike any other. Boyhood is seen as potentially “weak” is in its box office, but if The Hurt Locker can beat Avatar at the Producers Guild, anything’s possible. Clearly the industry has shown they don’t care about how much money a film makes. They don’t measure success that way any longer.

There isn’t enough time for a movie like American Sniper to gather momentum. The momentum is already with Boyhood. The shortened season makes it nearly impossible to turn around once it gets going. Back in the day, when the Oscars were held in mid March, there was time for a film to come from behind and win. The days of Crash, Shakespeare in Love and Chariots of Fire, though, are likely left behind in the era of the weighted ballot. The preferential ballot mostly removes that ability to surge forward in the last minute.

predictsag

The SAG awards are also happening this Sunday. With Jennifer Aniston out of the Oscar race and Marion Cotillard in, that makes predicting Best Actress kind of tough, although it’s mostly still Julianne Moore’s to lose. The SAG will be the big test. I had a feeling Aniston might take that prize, which would have boosted her chances at an Oscar – one speech was all she needed to push it over the top. I don’t think that awards make much of a difference to a lot of people. I’ve come around to Jim Rocchi’s view of them, which is, why do we care about what this group of people thinks is best? It is really an absurd way of finding best – anonymous voting, cronyism, consensus. But every so often something or someone comes along where awards seem important as a way of validation. That Jennifer Aniston went for it this year was criticized, I thought, unfairly. Roles like Aniston’s aren’t being offered to women anymore in mainstream Hollywood. They have to seek them out. If they win awards for them that helps changes things for all older actresses. But alas.

Either way, Julianne Moore is overdue – and deserving. It’s not the most exciting win, to be sure, but her entire career in film has thus far gone unrewarded, which is a shame considering the contributions to film she’s made for decades. At this rate, I don’t think anyone can upset her with Aniston out of the race.

But if we were just to look at the performances, the best of the five is, without a doubt, Rosamund Pike in Gone Girl, the performance of the year in the film of the year (shared with Boyhood and Selma, in my opinion). Pike’s Amazing Amy is one of those performances that will be talked about years from now, not unlike Jack Nicholson in The Shining or Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the Lambs. I have not had a more gloriously pleasurable moment watching any film this year as I did the scene in Gone Girl that happens at the hour mark.

The majority men I read talked about Gone Girl as though it was an inside joke they didn’t get. Maybe it was. Maybe they have been so cut off from the internal world of women that they can’t really picture it in this satirical form. Every line of dialogue in Flynn’s script is quotable and memorable. Like “The girl with the giant come-on-me-tits…now she looks like a mennonite.” Women in film in 2015 do not talk like that. They’ve been erased and replaced with Stepford wives.

I can’t argue with Moore finally winning but I’d be lying if I didn’t say I thought Pike’s was the best of the nominated five. I actually preferred Moore in Maps to the Stars. But as I say, I don’t think the Oscars mean much of anything except when they mean something and rewarding Moore means something. Shutting out Gone Girl was foolish and shortsighted of the Academy – but, like not nominating David Oyelowo and Ava DuVernay from Selma – it really only makes the Academy itself look even worse than it did before. They need to catch up to the modern world. They’re holding themselves, and their dying industry, back.

The supporting categories are locked. I don’t expect to see any surprises there – neither Patricia Arquette nor JK Simmons has a challenger. I don’t think Emma Stone can compete, nor do I think Edward Norton, though both are excellent can touch either of these beloved industry vets who delivered their best work in Boyhood and Whiplash.

Best Actor is wide open and as unpredictable as SAG ensemble. It’s down to the big three – Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything, Benedict Cumberbatch in The Imitation Game and Michael Keaton in Birdman. I myself have gone back and forth on them. It’s nearly impossible to decide. History tells that who wins here goes on to win the Oscar. This is the one category that draws a blank for me. All three have more than one SAG nod including ensemble. Two out of three are likable. Two out of three are British. I guess that means, to me, that Keaton has the slight edge, being that he’s the one not unlike the other two.

It’s hard to say who is most deserving as all three performances are as good as it gets. I suppose I’ll have to go with Keaton, though my brethren are mostly predicting Redmayne.

Let’s get her done, shall we?

Best Actor
Michael Keaton, Birdman

Best Actress
Julianne Moore, Still Alice

Supporting
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood, JK Simmons, Whiplash

Ensemble
Birdman

If Birdman wins Ensemble and Boyhood wins PGA — that should make for an interesting final act. If Imitation Game wins either? Look out. If Boyhood wins both? Stick a fork in it.

Grand Budapest Hotel also has a huge ensemble and is perfect for this award. It will likely have no impact on the Best Picture race but it’s still worth noting.

Predict away!

oscars-4

The winner of our contest is Away Waharika with 84/101. Please send an email to claim your prize!

And the runners-up…
T K – rbttkmail 82
Jiamin Huang 82
Matt Dittes 83
Nicholas Chung 83

predictdga

These fine people won the contest, correctly predicting all five of the eventual nominees:

Josh Parham
Steven riggs
Ighor Arantes
James Tisch
Adam Atkinson
Jorge Gascón
Michael Schetrompf
Pedro Cruz
steve schweighofer
David Feldman
Movie Film
Ashton Dubey

oscars-4

As Iggy Pop once said, it’ll all be over soon! It’s been a year full of twists and turns. The Oscar nominations could be full of many surprises. This is YOUR chance to show us what you got. Winner gets a $100 gift card at Amazon.

predictpga

We’ll be writing up our preview momentarily but until then, you can predict the PGA. They announce on Monday. It’s going to be awards season’s biggest week coming up.

jackpot

NBR Contest winner, with 13/25 correct predictions:
PJ Edwards

NYFCC Contest winner, with 7/10 correct predictions:
Mads Larsen

Congratulations!

NBR-Hero02

The National Board of Review, which traditionally announced first during awards season now announces a day after the New York Film Critics. They have impact because they announce so early. Any bit of prestige early on always helps a contender get recognition. Most people “out there” and in fact, many industry voters, don’t really care whether the NYFCC are “real critics” and the NBR aren’t – they are both considered major critics awards, sorry NYFCC. The day the New York Film Critics pick a film like the Babadook for Best Picture – one that isn’t even eligible for the Oscars? They can say they cut the cord to the awards season for good. But for now, they are right in line with awards season groupthink.

The NBR has less of an Oscartastic track record and often thinks just a little bit outside the box. Last year, they picked Spike Jonze’s Her for Best Picture of the year. They then get ten more choices to name for Best Film of the year, though their picks can sometimes we kind of weird, like The Secret Life of Walter Mitty last year. My predictions for their their top choice, as follows:

Best Picture of the Year: Unbroken
And the top ten of the year:
Boyhood
Birdman
American Sniper
Gone Girl
Into the Woods
The Imitation Game
The Theory of Everything
Whiplash
A Most Violent Year
Selma

Please enter our contest and post your predictions in the comments. They will be announcing on Tuesday morning.

nyfcc2012

On Monday, the New York Film Critics will begin voting. Tuesday, the following day, will be the National Board of Review’s announcement.  The New York Film Critics are probably the most Oscar friendly of the big critics groups, for whatever reason, but have, in the last two years, picked films no one else has yet seen, or seen but not yet reviewed. Zero Dark Thirty in 2012 and last year’s American Hustle. Will they do that again this year? There are really only two films they could do that with and that’s Unbroken, which has been seen by SOME but has a strict embargo enforced until December 1. They could do that with Selma, which has been seen but hasn’t yet been reviewed.

Either way, I expect, and probably most people expect, the New York Film Critics to go for either Boyhood or Birdman – making Oscars 2015 officially Boyman. Or Birdhood. Is there an American Hustle that might there to interrupt the flow of the two favorites so far? Not sure. Either way, it’s your turn to tell me. Your prize for winning this is $50 gift card at Amazon.

Bh1q1WdCQAAj-07.jpg-large

For the first time ever, we have ten winners in our Oscar contest. I have to say that these are probably collectively the highest scores in this contest in 15 years. It probably has to do with Gravity dominating many of the usually harder to guess awards. These readers missed only ONE category, listed below:

Vince Chan – missed only animated short.
Bob Tormey – missed only Best Picture.
Calvin Cousin – missed only animated short.
Juan Pablo Aragon – missed only documentary.
Corey Hart – missed only animated short.
Sefa Emekli – missed only animated short.
Abby Brown – missed only documentary.
Marco Santos – missed only doc short.
Robert Butler – missed only makeup.
Chris Schleicher – missed only animated short.

Winners of this (or any contest) contact awardsdaily@gmail.com for prize info.

After the cut, those who only missed two!

Continue reading…

baftacontest

Our contest is up and running. Preview coming later in the week.

The winner of our Oscar contest, with 77, is:
Gautam Anand

Runners-up, with 75:
Andrew Dean
Shane Nier
Daniela Y
Rob Browne
Tom M

For the Golden Globes, the winners are
Jeremy Smith
Nabeel Laher
Giuseppe Samela

Runners-Up with 10:
Ina Hark
Dean Caivano

Globes TV winners:
Jeff Knizner
Gustavo Cruz
Eduardo Gomes
Yannick Hache
João Garrido

For the winners of the Globe and Oscar contest, please send an email to awards daily [at] gmail.com

golden_globes_logo

It’s that time of year again. Please check out Gold Derby to see what the experts are predicting, but you too can take a stab at it. There will be prizes!

golden_globes_logo

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