For our 12th Annual No Guts, No Glory you can name three potential upsets — like serious upsets — that might happen tomorrow morning. They have to be near impossibilities. But still within the realm of reality. Pick up to 3.

My three are:

1. Harry Potter for ensemble
2. Drive for ensemble
3. Demian Bechir for Best Actor

There seem to be three things that drive the actors to choose performances for the SAG awards, which will announce tomorrow bright and early, 6am Pacific – Performance, popularity, notoriety/reputation. The big question for tomorrow will be whether voters will choose some of the wild cars that haven’t been showing up lately – Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, specifically, but also Woody Harrelson in Rampart, Kevin Spacey in Margin Call, Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene, and on and on or whether they will stick fairly close to what we’ve been seeing.  Extremely Loud and Dragon Tattoo remain the unknown factor in all respects.

Either way, I feel like I’m more in the dark this year about what they’d choose than I ever have been. Since so many movies opened late you have to wonder how it will all shake down. Will this be a year when Oscar and SAG match up well? Or will this be a year when they don’t?

Before it gets too late I suppose I’ll try to predict how it will go. I start with what I know for sure and work my way down. But I do remember that there is an aspect to the SAG Awards that’s like the BFCAs, the Globes and the Oscars: they like pretty people on their red carpets and coming to their show.

So herewith, my predictions–

Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Alt: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

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The SAG schedule is already being released and my enthusiasm has yet to become fully engorged. It was left a half mile back along with my faith, hope and charity. The SAGs have a gigantic membership so they try to look moderately intelligent by only having a tiny bit of their membership (aka, closer to the Academy’s actual membership number) do the screening and nominating. Press release:

The 4,200 Screen Actors Guild members who will determine the nominees for the 18th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards® for this year’s outstanding performances in film and primetime television will be drawn by random sample this Friday, April 1, 2011, SAG Awards® Committee Chair JoBeth Williams announced today.

More of the press release after the cut.

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SAG 2010

SAG nominations

This year’s Best Pic count:
The Fighter – 4
The King’s Speech – 4
Black Swan – 3
The Kids Are All Right – 3
The Social Network – 2
True Grit – 2
Winter’s Bone – 2

Black Swan
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network

Actress, Lead:
Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Hilary Swank, Conviction

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Tomorrow is the second of three early morning announcements when we find out, bright and early, the actors chosen by the Screen Actors Guild nominating committee.  Actors make up the largest voting block at the AMPAS, and since the SAG reduced their nominating committee to a more manageable size, it tends to match Oscar fairly well.

Last year, almost all of the acting nominees from the Globes ended up matching SAG at least 4 out 5, or 5 out of 5. SAG matched Oscar very closely last year. It’s strange to see it add up like that, but that’s how it went down. Usually there is a little variety. Last year, it really felt like the acting categories were mostly sewn up. This year, things feel a little squirrely by comparison.

But I think we can assume that the Globes nominees will sort of match the SAG nominees. At least, to a degree. This is the time of year that consensus really starts to set in. But let’s look at the categories one by one.

Let’s do this thing.

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