It seems that articles wanting to suss out the Best Picture race thus far are starting to sprout up. This because often the first half of the year does produce formidable films that could make it all the way to the end — but the key is, as always, advocacy. Those of us who beat the drum loudly can often help a film be remembered come critics awards time — and one major award from a critic puts a film in contention to win. Kris Tapley wrote at In Contention. Pete Hammond wrote up his favorites for Deadline. Jeff Wells wrote a halftime wrap-up on Hollywood-Elsewhere and Nathaniel Rogers wrote one on The Film Experience.
The official start of Oscar season kicks off, realistically, at Telluride. That’s the moment where the herd begins to thin — and each Oscar hopeful gets a turn at bat. If the critics hate a film, some shuffling can be done to make sure voters see it before they read the reviews (Les Miserables, Extremely Loud, etc). If critics love it, voters might still hate it. But right around Telluride the fuzzy picture begins to clear.
The films that have the best chance right now are those with buzz. Though it’s hard to really tell what’s buzz and what is just high praise. We know the Oscar race is a game of timing, capturing the moment. If the moment passes, no amount of infused hype can resurrect the movie. It will then be forgotten for awards season only to emerge as an underrated masterpiece in years to come. How do you capture the moment? Who knows. It remains a mystery as to why some movies win and some don’t. But we’re not looking for sure-to-be disappointing winner yet. We are still in the phase where hope springs eternal. Right now, anything is possible.
To that end, the films so far that have the best chance for a Best Picture nomination are those that will have a healthy share of number one votes. I feel confident that the following five films could manage many number one votes right now:
1. Before Midnight — On the one hand, it’s a film that could take the critics darling slot and thus, be resented by the Academy. But I figure, this is a film that will remind many in the industry why they got into making movies in the first place: to tell good stories. Who could not appreciate the dedication to this production, the decades-long evolution of a passion project. To see the third film in the series emerge as such a complex masterpiece is unlike anything we’ve ever experienced. It should remain the favorite of many a voter, especially those who lived through the French New Wave — but to anyone who’s attempted a relationship for the long haul, as well.
2. Inside Llewyn Davis — It isn’t just that the Coen brothers have delivered another intricately written standout, it’s also that this film takes us on a visceral trip back to mid-century Greenwich Village just before the Bob Dylan bomb changed everything. In many ways, it is a reminder of the days of pure music — when you’d stroll into a club and hear pure songwriting. It was a rare moment and those times are gone. I suspect that on top of the great writing, acting and directing, this film will become the favorite of many who remember that era and look back on it fondly.
3. Nebraska — This is still the film I think could go all the way to a win. But I am attempting to downplay my enthusiasm in hopes that I can help keep the hype on the down-low. As many of our parents are heading into old age, some into Alzheimer’s and dementia, this is a movie that will hit home with many. It is subtle and tender-hearted — but it says so much about family, America and its director, Alexander Payne.
4. Fruitvale Station — As with all the films named so far, the director’s vision here is key. The strength of Ryan Coogler work here could easily stake his claim in the Best Director category. Fruitvale Station will blow a hole through the safe and conventional Oscar race by being one of the few films that takes a hard look at a social issue. On one level it’s an important story about Oscar Grant, who was “accidentally” shot on a subway platform. Beyond that we’re witnessing the moment Ryan Coogler entered the film industry as a talented young African American auteur. In order to prevail with a nomination, Fruitvale Station will have to be the number one film for many — but a recent SAG screening went very well. I suspect it will have more than enough support to get it into the Best Picture race.
5. Stories We Tell — How to regard this wonderful film by Sarah Polley? Will it become the ninth nominee, slipping in without many other nominations besides writing and picture? It’s possible. It’s a charmer, and perhaps one that will resonate with voters who prefer to vote for films that move them emotionally. While it seems an easy call for a screenplay nod it’s harder to imagine anything bigger, but right now it has the heat.
Films that are in the conversation but will need additional push:
Mud — A surprising hit on the indie circuit and one that should do well with Spirit Award voters (who will then hand out their top prize to an Oscar film that has no business in the Spirit Awards race).
The Place Beyond the Pines — Screenplay, maybe an actor nod, or supporting.
Frances Ha — Should get some kind of recognition somewhere, most likely for screenplay, but it is also exactly the kind of movie the industry often ignores. It will need additional buzz from critics.
But what do you all think?
THE IMMIGRANT!
Congratulations on having one of the most sophisticated blogs Ive arrive across in some time! Its just incredible how very much you can take away from anything simply because of how visually beautiful it is. Youve put with each other a fantastic weblog space
I will be interested to see what happens with “Dallas Buyer’s Club” in the fall. If it is popularly received, does that contribute to the reassessment of Matthew McConaghey as a serious actor and then drive the academy to look back at “Mud” when contemplating Best Actor nominations?
He has quietly put together a list of starring and supporting roles (Dazed and Confused, Lone Star, Amistad, Bernie, Killer Joe, Mud, Magic Mike,etc.) that would allow a pretty decent retrospective reel if say Telluride were to present him with one of the three medallions they give out.
Of the movies mentioned “Stories We Tell” and “Much Ado About Nothing” are my personal favorites and as much as I liked “Frances Ha” it was a trifle.
BEST ACTRESS:MARION COTILLARD!
She just won a few years ago. It’s possible a la Swank, but somewhat unlikely, I think.
Just saw Before Midnight, and I have to say, I was very impressed. The screenplay was far superior to the first two Befores, and I was also very impressed with Julie Delpy’s performance. I could easily see her sneaking into the Best Actress category, although, of course, she has to deal with the unfortunate summer release date.
Here are my Oscar odds for BM:
Original Screenplay 8/10 chance
Delpy Actress 4/10 chance (would be 6/10 if this had been released October or later)
Best Pic 6/10 chance (would be 8/10 if October or later)
I’ll probably see Fruitvale because it has ‘buzz’ attached (like Beasts did last summer.) I’m aware that TWC is shameless in their pursuit of all things Oscar. Correct me if I’m wrong – but, though the film isn’t due for another month – why does it seem that the only place I’ve seen this film’s trailer is on the Headline News channel during the George Zimmerman trail? They seem to be showing this trailer at least once a hour. I don’t recall seeing it through any of the Stanley Cup finals, the MTV movie awards, the Tony awards, Good Morning America or doing the family viewing hour. Again, knowing how TWC will leech onto anything to gain ‘a backstory,’ (have Bradley Cooper or D.O.Russell have any follow-up visits with Joe Biden in their (Oscar voting timed) crusade for mental health?) – I can almost believe that (with this film), their ‘campaign back story’ will be along the lines of – if George Zimmerman is acquitted, they’ll be beating the drums saying ‘a vote for Fruitvale is a vote for TMartin, likewise, should GZimmerman get charged with something, I wouldn’t be bowled over if HW dictates ‘voting for Fruitvale in the name of TMartin.’
I might be wrong, but their past campaigns only lead to this conclusion. Granted – I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if TWC already purchased the airtime on HLNews to show this trailer at the 1st commercial immediately after the verdict is read…
Beyond the Candelabra isn’t eligible because although it was screened at Cannes, it never received a theatrical release in the US and aired on HBO instead. Same with Top of the Lake. And while Stories We Tell was released in Canada in 2012, the studio held back its release in the US until 2013 because the documentary field was too crowded and they wanted to give it a better shot at the Oscars. A film needs to have at least one screening in LA before the deadline for submissions in order to qualify (except for foreign language and, until recently, I believe, documentary because the nominations are/were juried)
Before Midnight’s fate lies with the critics and blogs. If the critics and bloggers remember it then it has a shot. Otherwise, no way. Before Sunset was one of the top 5 best reviewed films of 2004 but when the critics awards came around, it was the inferior Sideways, Sideways, Sideways that won EVERYTHING from the critics circle. I hope that Before Midnight gets remember but color me very, very, very skeptical.
And I disagree with the poster who said it was the weakest of the three. Did we watch the same movie? I’d rank them
1) Sunset
2) Midnight
3) Sunrise <– a distant third.
The Academy will not go for whaty I’ve been watching this year. However, the really standout stuff for me has been…
Best Actor: Chris Pine (Star Trek Into Darkness) This is exactly the sort of performance that the Academy never notices, and maybe there’s a reason for that. Still, it’s such a thrill to see this classic character back again, going on an emotional and physical journey to become the man we love .
Best Screenplay–The Purge. Why critics savaged this, I do not know. The audience got it right, as did the studio who wide-released this $3million thriller. Here is the sort of thing we used to see quite a bit, a nifty thriller based upon an ingenious premise, but it’s a thing of rarity now.
Snitch. An action movie about minimum mandatory sentencing, which really is a serious problem in our legal system. And it has a plot!
Best Visual Effects, Sound, Sound Effects: Star Trek Into Darkness… the big scifi spectacle of the year
Best Score–Hans Zimmer, Man of Steel. It’s no Richard Donner movie, but Hans at least got in the ballpark of John Williams’ classic original.
“The Place Beyond the Pines”
Not happening. If the vote could just be the first act, maybe 2nd and in praise of the overall intention of the film – then yes. But it was sadly an ambitious but weak film. But Cianfrance is an inspiring filmmaker to watch and I can’t wait to see his next film nevertheless.
Out of what I have seen so far I would have:
BEST PICTURE (so far)
1. Spring Breakers
2. Stoker
3. The East
4. The Bling Ring
5. Behind the Candelabra
6. Mud
7. To the Wonder
8. Side Effects
9. Mama
10. The Lords of Salem
BEST DIRECTOR (so far)
1. Harmony Korinne – Spring Breakers
2. Chan-Wook Park – Stoker
3. Stephen Soderbergh – Behind the Candelabra
4. Sophia Coppola – The Bling Ring
5. Terrence Malick – To the Wonder
BEST ACTOR (so far)
1. Michael Douglas – Behind the Candelabra
2. Matt Damon – Behind the Candelabra
3. Matthew M. – Mud
4. Jude Law – Side Effects
BEST ACTRESS (so far)
1. Brit Marling – The East
2. Rooney Mara – Side Effects
3. Olga Kurylenko – To the Wonder
4. Mia W. – Stoker
5. Jessica Chastain – Mama
BEST S. ACTOR (so far)
1. James Franco – Spring Breakers
2. Matthew Goode – Stoker
3. Isreal Broussard – The Bling Ring
4. Tobey Kebbel – The East
BEST S. ACTRESS (so far)
1. Nicole Kidman – Stoker
2. Emma Watson – The Bling Ring
3. Rachel Korine – Spring Breakers
4. Ellen Page – The East
4.
Finally some To the Wonder love!
Going to follow your lead…
Best Picture
1. MUD
2. BEFORE MIDNIGHT
3. OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
4. SPRING BREAKERS
5. STOKER
6. BEHIND THE CANDELABRA
7. MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
8. AT ANY PRICE
9. BATMAN: THE DARK KNIGHT RETURNS – PART 2
10. THIS IS THE END
Best Director
1. Jeff Nichols – MUD
2. Richard Linklater – BEFORE MIDNIGHT
3. Sam Raimi – OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
4. Harmony Korinne – SRPING BREAKERS
5. Chan-Wook Park – STOKER
Best Actor
1. Ty Sheridan – MUD
2. James Franco – OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
3. Matt Damon – BHEIND THE CANDELABRA
4. Ethan Hawke – BEFORE MIDNIGHT
5. Zac Efron – AT ANY PRICE
Best Actress
1. Julie Delpy – BEFORE MIDNIGHT
2. Mia Wasikowska – STOKER
3. Amy Seimetz – UPSTREAM COLOR
4. Amy Acker – MUCH ADO ABOUT NOTHING
5. Jessica Chastain – MAMA
Best Supporting Actor
1. James Franco – SPRING BREAKERS
2. Sam Sheppard – MUD
3. Michael Sahnnon – MUD
5. Vincent Cassel – TRANCE
4. Benedict Cumberbatch – STAR TREK INTO DARKNESS
Best Supporting Actress
1. Rachel Weisz – OZ THE GREAT AND POWERFUL
2. Vanessa Hudgens – SPRING BREAKERS
3. Nicole Kidman – STOKER
4. Selena Gomez – SPRING BREAKERS
5. Emma Watson – THIS IS THE END
Special Jury Award goes to Max Irons in THE HOST for being such a sexy trip and enough of a distraction (i.e., obsession) to make me forget that the insufferable Saoirse Ronan was the protagonist.
I’m in, here’s my list (winners in bold):
BEST PICTURE:
Before Midnight
Mud
This Is The End
Frances Ha
Stories We Tell
Spring Breakers
Behind The Candelabra
The Place Beyond The Pines
Berberian Sound Studio
BEST DIRECTOR:
Sarah Polley – Stories We Tell
Jeff Nichols – Mud
Richard Linklater – Before Midnight
Noah Baumbach – Frances Ha
Steven Soderbergh – Behind The Candelabra/Side Effects
BEST ACTOR:
Michael Douglas – Behind The Candelabra
Tye Sheridan – Mud
Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight
Jude Law – Side Effects
Matt Damon – Behind The Candelabra
BEST ACTRESS:
Julie Delpy – Before Midnight
Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
Amy Seimetz – Upstream Color
Rooney Mara – Side Effects
Olga Kurylenko – To The Wonder
BEST SUP. ACTOR:
Matthew McConaughey – Mud
James Franco – Spring Breakers/This Is The End
Danny McBride – This Is The End
Benedict Cumberbatch – Star Trek Into Darkness
Ryan Gosling – The Place Beyond The Pines
BEST SUP. ACTRESS:
Nicole Kidman – Stoker
Debroah Mailman – The Sapphires
Catherine Zeta-Jones – Side Effects
Emma Watson – The Bling Ring
Lily Tomlin – Admission
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Stories We Tell
This Is The End
Mud
Frances Ha
The Place Beyond The Pines
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Before Midnight
Behind The Candelabra
Monsters University
Iron Man 3
The Sapphires
I absolutely ADORED Stories We Tell, but I’m a bit confused by a lot of things. The movie came out in Canada in late 2012, is it eligible for the 2014 Academy Awards because it got out later in the US? Also, can it run in both Best Documentary and Best Picture races (cause I remember “Fahrenheit 9/11” had to drop out of the first to run for the later). Actually, is it even considered a documentary at this point?!
I think it will have some trouble getting it considered in the documentary category based on the way Ms. Polley structured the film, although I wouldn’t hold it against it. I loved the film and would love to see it mentioned in the Best Picture category, but this has “gem that falls between the cracks” written all over it.
i didn’t quite like place beyond the pines, first fifty minutes were very promising but then the whole of bradley cooper part was a letdown and the third act of the film was major blow, thoroughly predictable and not at all gripping.
my favorite so far is Jane Campion’s TOP OF THE LAKE. if put together all six hours, this was something i was dying to see for years, some bold grownup, mature and expertly written drama with amazingly convoluted, thought provoking and insightful story which gets into your bones and its rather difficult to shake it off. I loved the way Campion tells the story making us want to explore the heavenly gorgeous town like village only on screen but never making us want to step foot there. Piano wasn’t a fluke, Jane Campion makes us believe that in literally every scene.
My favorite films of the year so far are:
1. The Place Beyond the Pines
2. Star Trek Into Darkness
3. Stoker
4. This Is The End
5. The Great Gatsby
6. Man of Steel
I’m pretty sure that none of those will be making it into the Best Picture lineup, but it would absolutely thrill me if ‘Pines’ managed to do so. I think it’s a wonderful film, and filled with fantastic performances all around, great direction from Derek Cianfrance, and a thought-provoking screenplay. Of all the films I’ve seen so far, this one has stuck with me the most. ‘STID’ is by far the best summer blockbuster of the year so far for me, and I was genuinely moved by parts of it as well. ‘Stoker’ is a hidden gem that deserves so much more attention than it’s gotten. Mia Wasikowska and Matthew Goode are Oscar worthy.
My faves:
1.Before Midnight
2. Mud
3. Kings of Summer
4. Place Beyond the Pines
5. Star Trek: Into Darkness
I feel like all but #3 will show up in some form or another come nominations.
One more thing. I think that Richard Linklater deserved a best picture nomination for his truly underrated 1993 film Dazed & Confused. That was one HELL of a great film.
I’d also like to add, that if we’re talking about films that were truly snubbed for a best picture nomination, the last three years go like this for me:
2012 – The Master
2011 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
2010 – The Town
I really hope that some of these films listed here don’t fall prey to the good ol’ snub.
I’m very hopeful for Inside Llewin Davis.
I’m curious about a possible Nebraska win for best picture, since just two years ago, a black and white film won best picture in The Artist. Doesn’t it seem possible that it’s “too soon” to award another black and white film, no matter how good it is.
I thought Side Effects was a great film, and I really enjoyed both Man of Steel and World War Z.
Before Midnight was sooo, sooo good. Just thinking about it gets me a little worked up. There’s one, perhaps small moment in the movie that lingers in my head. The moment where the elder woman at the table finally gets a word in, in the midst of all these young-ish people conveying their thoughts on time/love/loss/meaning, was such an emotional jolt for me. Watching that sequence, I knew she was biding her time, waiting for the right moment to step in and contribute her wisdom, and even then it got to me when she finally spoke. I think anyone who has seen the film will know what I’m talking about, and I hesitate to speak in more detail about it, lest I wind up ruining the moment for those who haven’t seen it yet.
The final scene is also so tender and lyrical, but also strikes the perfectly uneasy note that I think Linklater and company intended us to walk away with. This is tough stuff, no doubt about it, and I think the viewer understands that life isn’t neat. Problems linger and may never be fully solved. All we can do is muddle on somehow and try to do the right thing by the people we care most about.
YES YES! @chrisprice.
That scene absolutely killed me, I loved how jarring it was at first to see Jesse and Celine interacting with other characters, since in the last two films they never really exchange more then a brief few words with anyone but eachother. You nailed it on the head, after all those random fresh young faces talking about love like it’s something they can understand, that old woman just cut through that scene like a knife. I don’t know who that actress is but she was so captivating in such a short time!
what does jpns’ comment “sadly save rosé” mean?
In reference to the comment of ‘my heart still goes on’ from ‘Titanic’ where Kate Winslet’s character Rose survives the sinking ship. It’s obviously a slow day for me to be taking the time to explain this ha.
Craig,
Thank you. Just saw your comment (now).
Cheers!
Quoting myself: “Anyway, basically my heart still goes on, sadly save Rose : ), with both O. Russell and Allen’s films. Can’t wait for those two films to come my way.”
—
By “sadly save Rose” I meant “sadly without (a woman named) Rose”. (I was not really being upset, by the way.) xD
I was referring to the heroine named Rose in the 1997 smash hit flick/Oscar winner, Titanic, starring Leo DiCaprio (Jack) and Kate Winslet (Rose). The words “(basically) my heart (still) goes on” were inspired by the hit single titled My Heart Will Go On, which is also an original soundtrack to the film Titanic.
Basically, it was just a Titanic allusion.
Sorry.
xD ??
jpns,
What does “sadly save Rosé” mean?
Thanks…
If seen 29 films so far and as usual there are the greats and mostly mixed films with some truly terrible films I do not even bother to see . My top 5 so far would be:
1. Before Midnight
2. Mud
3. The Place Beyond the Pines
4. Stoker
5. Much Ado About Nothing.
Only the top 2 I can see making my top 10 at the end but still it has been an average year for films.
I agree that the first four films you mention are the most buzzed of the first half of the year. Fifth slot I’d give to “The Past” over “Stories We Tell”…
I haven’t seen Fruitvale Station or Stories We Tell, but if the other three on the list are anything to go by, Fruitvale and Stories are pretty strong.
Llewyn Davis is a great picture but too small and subtle to play with audiences and the Academy. Nominations, sure but no big wins.
Before Midnight is a little gem. And a beautiful addition to what I hope is not a trilogy but a series. As we know, it hasn’t made any numbers but come December, it should figure at the Top Ten Lists.
What will win big is NEBRASKA. The OAPs will emerge from next to nowhere for that. And in humungous numbers. It is subtle, poignant, funny, sad, sincere, and REAL. And it has an absolute knockout of an ending. I mean, it damn near brought the house down in Cannes (the gala premiere, not the press screening). It is a knockout ending because you don’t really see it coming. And when it’s happening, it just goes on and on and gets better and better (watch out for those cutaways!) and I betcha some bottom dollars, grown men will see this in their droves with their aging papas. Oscar nominations? 7 minimum. Wins? Who knows.
(Just some random thoughts here. Bear with me, thanks.)
Sounds like most people so far who have seen Before Midnight really love it. I saw the film’s first two installments and found them both just all right (I might need to re-evaluate the two given the buzz around them by people around here). To quote Sasha from the previous thread, “[…] the (lost) art of conversation […]”, quote ends; from Sasha’s positive and beauteous remarks on the final piece of the trilogy along with critics’ kind words elsewhere; #if# Before Midnight was really great as critics and pro bloggers so far have claimed, given its talkative nature, then it would be fair at-least-to give a serious thought to the Screenplay [the obvious], as well as, perhaps, acting and/or directing efforts.
Blabbering aside, now that I’ve been converted, I’m looking forward to it (Before Midnight) to see if the buzz is noteworthy or just some misbelief. . . .
—
Anyway, basically my heart still goes on, sadly save Rose : ), with both O. Russell and Allen’s films. Can’t wait for those two films to come my way.
Thanks for some thoughts and update back to back (here and on the previous one), Sasha.
What does your comment Sadly Save Rosé refer? Thanks. just curios.
Me,
I’ve just responded to another comment (of yours) (below). Thanks for asking.
i dont see Before Midnight getting nominated it’s a very good film but being the 3rd in a series where neither of the other 2 got in is gonna hurt it plus it’s the weakest of the 3 films
The problem is, unless many of the fall prestige pics disappoint, it’s very likely that only one of these films will make the cut.
Also, if Before Sunrise and Before Sunset couldn’t do it, what makes people think that Before Midnight will? I’d understand the sentiment if the film were being released later in the year. But the summer release AND the fact that the Academy ignored the first two films makes me doubt.
I’ll tell you what: the screenplay for this third installment is considerably stronger than were the first two, and Delpy’s performance stays with you long after you leave the theater. I think she’s got a legitimate shot at an Actress nod. I’m putting it at 4/10, though she would be a shoe-in if this were being released October or later. Also, remember that we have up to 10 nominees now, not 5 as before.
As I’m from the Eastern Europe and wasn’t able to watch a group of films which will arrive to our cinemas in autumn, my TOP 5 looks as follow:
1. THE PLACE BEYOND THE PINES
2. MUD
3. STORIES WE TELL
4. GREAT GATSBY
5. A LATE QUARTET
I’d be thrilled to see Stories We Tell go all the way. Could it also have a decent shot at Best Documentary, given the early release and buzz?
What about Side Effects? Rooney Mara is extremely good, but I don’t know if she, Delpy, and Gerwig could keep on truckin’ until next February. (Soderbergh will win plenty awards for Beyond the Candelabra, anyways.)
Many more people are talking about Mud than Stories We Tell. Sarah Polley’s film could probably manage a lot of number one votes were it even going to be seen by a lot of voters! Advocate away, Sasha, cos it can’t hurt, but I currently don’t expect it to be a stronger force in the Oscar race than Mud.
I’ve only been able to see Before Midnight and Mud so far, and I was very impressed by both. Obviously I have no idea how the rest of the year’s films will pan out, but I think those two are “deserving” of a Best Picture nomination. I can see Mud getting pushed out of my top ten, but not Before Midnight. Before Midnight will probably be the one film this year that I’ll get really upset about if it’s snubbed.