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Thursday morning, bright and early, the Golden Globes will announce their nominations, only a day after the Screen Actors Guild (tomorrow morning). The Hollywood Foreign Press (HFPA for short) are a unique organization of foreign journalists who are given exclusive access to filmmakers and celebrities. They can’t be bypassed in the awards race no matter how many critics or bloggers dismiss them. They have a popular television show that gives Oscar contenders an audition of sorts. Sometimes what happens at the Globes can completely reverse momentum of a contender in favor of another.
I am reminded of Jim Cameron’s speech at the Globes, with Kathryn Bigelow sitting in the audience. The mood was overwhelmingly in Bigelow’s favor but most already knew that “they” didn’t “like” The Hurt locker. Nonetheless, that was enough to shift sentiment towards Bigelow in a dramatic fashion. The same thing happened last year when Ben Affleck won the Globe right after he was “snubbed” for Oscar nominations. Turns out, Argo was the consensus choice yet the Academy neglected to nominate its director.
Similarly, Lincoln’s own campaign took a major turn from some dirty dealings on the backend. Bill Clinton (a former President) was asked to introduce Lincoln. That favor turned into some nasty accusations, the kind that have been following Spielberg for most of his career — he’s too rich, he’s too powerful, he’s a scary Jew Mogul out to rob the world of quality and taste. Thus, Lincoln’s campaign kept coming off as elitist while Argo’s was continually the little scrappy underdog that could. This is how the Golden Globes can impact the Oscar race. That, and how contenders accept awards.
The Globes are given privileged access to celebrities because missing out on a nod there makes your chances for getting an Oscar nomination a bit harder. You lose all of that publicity potential. It will be interesting to see how certain categories play out, since the films will be divided into drama and comedy.
The Wolf of Wall Street, American Hustle,Inside Llewyn Davis, Her, and unbelievably August: Osage County, one of the darkest films of the year, are all competing in the comedy/musical category. That is going to be a tight race to the finish.
That leaves more breathing room in drama, where films like 12 Years a Slave, Fruitvale Station, Captain Phillips, Gravity, All is Lost, Prisoners, and Saving Mr. Banks all have a chance to get some attention.
Since so many “big” movies are in comedy, this might be an easier contest to predict than most.
Check out all of my predictions over at GoldDerby.com — and please enter our contest below or else leave your own predictions in the comments!