Since the SAG awards began 20 years ago, whenever Best Picture and Best Director split, the SAG ensemble foretold Best Picture in every case, except once where the ensemble sided with Best Director.
2012 - SAG ensemble + DGA + PGA = Argo, Ang Lee for Life of Pi, Director
2005 – SAG ensemble + Eddie + WGA = Crash, Brokeback (PGA+WGA+DGA), director
2002 - SAG ensemble + DGA = Chicago, Roman Polanski, director
2000 – PGA+Eddie = Gladiator, SAG ensemble + WGA director (Steven Soderbergh)
1998 – SAG ensemble+WGA = Shakespeare in Love, (PGA+DGA) Steven Spielberg
This year’s SAG ensemble winner? American Hustle. Funny, right? Of course, none of these years represent a preferential ballot, except last year of course! And there has never before been a tie for the PGA.