Gold Derby and Movie City News have released their current standings. As you can see, many of the hot shots have switched to Gravity. I know pundits have worked around this in hopes of splitting up the vote to satisfy this incredible push towards making history while rewarding the film people seem to want to vote for, given the DGA. That 12 Years even made the Producers Guild win, making history there, is a miracle in and of itself. Anything it wins will be shocking from here on out considering the stat pile thus far. If it was to win this season it would have needed the New York film critics (they went for American Hustle), the National Society of Film Critics (they went for Inside Llewyn Davis) and/or the Los Angeles Film Critics (who tied on Gravity and Her). That’s what you call one door closing after another. It further could have won the SAG ensemble, it did not (American Hustle did). So far it has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice and the London Film Critics but no one, other than the New York Film Critics have given its director, the first black director to get this far in the Oscar race, their top prize. Just one critics group did – and that event turned into a fiasco when McQueen was heckled by Armond White, who is now out of the NYFCC because of it.
The race feels split up all over the place but all you have to really do is watch the large numbered consensus votes. It’s close between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, if the PGA is any indication. But The Wrap’s Steve Pond said he doesn’t believe any film is going to come in at number one on the first round. That means the film that is most likely to be #2 and #3 on a voter’s ballot will pick up enough votes to win. We have no way of knowing what that film will be. Still. a massive group like the DGA went for Cuaron. That is pretty much the only thing that matters.
The BAFTA, just watch and see, is going to firm up Gravity’s place in the race. Kris Tapley cited an anonymous source who said BAFTA voters were picking 12 Years a Slave hand over fist. People believe that will result in a win for 12 Years a Slave. But the funny thing about stories like that? They tend to change the way people vote. That’s why publicists plant them. That story was not planted – Tapley knows his source is credible but the end result is the same; it increases incentive for voters to vote for other movies – like Philomena or Gravity.
I suspect it’s Gravity all the way for the BAFTA and from thence to Oscar. I’ll hold onto my official prediction of McQueen and 12 Years just because I think someone ought to. But let’s see how this plays out keeping in mind that none of it really matters, not really. It only matters if it matters.
Here are the reasons pundits are switching to Gravity:
1) Splits are near impossible to predict.
2) The DGA almost always calls Best Picture.
Let’s look at the times the DGA did not call Best Picture in their entire history.
2005: Brokeback Mountain (Ang Lee DGA+Oscar), Crash won.
2000: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon (Ang Lee), Gladiator won/Soderbergh directing Oscar
1998: Saving Private Ryan (Steven Spielberg DGA+Oscar) Shakespeare in Love won Picture
1995: Apollo 13 (Ron Howard not nominated for Oscar), Mel Gibson and Braveheart won Oscar
1989: Born on the 4th of July (Oliver Stone, DGA+Oscar), Driving Miss Daisy (no director nom for Beresford)
1985: The Color Purple, (Spielberg not nonmed for Director), Sidney Pollack won Picture + Director for Out of Africa
1981: Reds (Warren Beatty, DGA+Oscar), Chariots of Fire won Picture.
1967: The Graduate (Mike Nichols, DGA+Oscar), In the Heat of the Night won Picture
1956: Giant (George Stevens, DGA+Oscar), Around the World in 80 Days
1953: The Quiet Man (John Ford, DGA+Oscar), The Greatest Show on Earth
1952: A Place in the Sun (George Stevens, DGA+Oscar), An American in Paris
1949: A Letter to Three Wives (Joseph L. Mankiewicz), John Huston won Director/Hamlet won Picture.
3. In a split year, the film that wins is generally either the SAG ensemble winner (American Hustle), or the crowd pleaser (Gravity).
4. If there is that much overwhelming support for Cuaron, Oscar season dictates that Gravity is also your best picture winner.
Things that still needle me, though: What of the actors? Are they going to break with tradition and vote for a film that has one and a half performances in it? That seems impossible. They’re much more likely to go for Hustle or 12 Years. Also, that PGA vote for 12 Years still lingers — and can’t be denied. It shows there is enormous support for both films on a preferential ballot. Are we to assume the top three vote getters are going to be Gravity, 12 Years, and American Hustle? If so, how do they get numbered?
Is it over yet?
The Oscars are supposed to award the “best” film of the year, not the most important film of the year. 12YAS is a great film, it is important as hell, still I dont think it is the best film of the year. Awarding the best is somehow subjective. 12YAS is not being recognized as the best written film of the year, that would be AH or Her, neither it is being recognized as the best directed or greatest achievemnt, that would be Gravity, and what makes a film the best among others is how the vision of the creator comes to life through the work of a team of profesionals and, yes it does matter, how well people connect with it. So, even if history is important and a black director has never won and “now would be “the right thing to do” to award one for talking about such a relevant yet ignored subject, if we are honest and the Academy is too, the best film of the year simply is Gravity.
Twelve years all the way..No competition..Saw gravity and i could not understand all the hype about this film.George clooney as George clooney and Sandra Bullock just floating in space?Come on guys give me break…
Ralph – so what if we like to over-analyze? If we like it, why shouldn’t we be allowed to keep doing it? It’s hurting nobody. 🙂
“There’s so much data from so many years that basicly everyone can find a factor supporting their own speculation.”
Yes, quite, but when you put all of the known factors (stats) together and weigh their importance according to their accuracy in predicting BP in previous years, there is usually just one (rarely 2, almost never 3) clear favorite that emerges, and on which everyone (who knows the stats) agrees. This year we have 3 that are butting heads, each with its own set of favorable and unfavorable stats, which is why we’re over-analyzing – because it’s so unusually exciting…
“Manuel February 8, 2014 at 1:42 am
Maybe Her could snag some votes and win BP?”
I don’t mean to be crass, but if this happened, I’d probably have an orgasm.
@darylMF, it’s ok if you didn’t like 12YAS, it’s not everyone’s cup of tea. At least you saw it and then said you didn’t like it, unlike some people who don’t like it w/o even seeing it. Trust me, I’m not losing sleep over those who don’t like it.
Reading this site and others like it for a few years makes me think one thing: All of this predicting became way over the top. Overanalysing, making everything a big deal – that movie won this, that movie that, this guild decided this, other guild differently, every single thing seems to be the game changer. There’s so much data from so many years that basicly everyone can find a factor supporting their own speculation.
Sasha do you really don’t have anything smarter to say than things like “It only matters when it matters”? Wait… what?
Sometimes it’s good to see things from a distance. Constant analysing everything that comes out almost every day is a bit too much for me. Everyone here in comments writes as an expert. 12yas will win because…No, Gravity will win because … None of us knows what’s going to win in such a year, so stop pretending that you know everything (“Steve McQuin/Cuaron is like that or this”), ’cause the more you try to make big deal of everything, the more ridiculous and irrelevant it looks.
Let’s enjoy the ride, let’s cheer for our favourites and try to predict, but sometimes it looks like it’s being done just for the sole sake of it.
@Simone, I saw McQueen interview after the movie. He’s really unlikable, almost David O Russell-level. IMO, critics totally oversold the movie so my high expectations weren’t met in the slightest.
You asked if I saw the movie and I gave you the answer. I guess you are not happy that I didn’t like it. It would be more convenient that I didn’t see it but was against its director’s win because of some agenda. Turns out, I did see it and just didn’t think it was special, memorable, best.
darylmf, sounds like you long had an axe to grind against Steve McQueen and you were never going to enjoy 12YAS.
nothing more needs to be said.
I honestly didn’t like 12YS because it played like Roots digest without memorable characters. It didn’t say anything new about slavery that we didn’t know already. IMO, Django Unchained brought something interesting to the table with Candie’s speech and I liked how Tarantino used much more commercial genre – western – to make slavery subject matter accessible to wide audience, people who otherwise may not have been interested. So, IMO, that movie was superior in every way – and truly shocking too – and made 12YS look like typical slavery TV movie of the week. I also didn’t care for characters because they were really poorly written. Epps and wife were horrible caricatures, while Solomon and Patsy were too passive and void of personality. I didn’t think that acting was anything special. Ejiofor has that annoying, perpetually disgusted look on his face in every movie, on every photo, in every interview. Those who trash Maconaughay for always playing Texans and Southerners should also be critical of Ejiofor’s one facial expression. I was waiting for Nyong’o to blow me away since critics oversold her performance and I waited in vain. There were hardly any memorable scenes, nothing really happened plotwise and White Messiah Deus Ex Machine Brad Pitt was just awful casting and moment. So Solomon got saved by a movie star? Talk about pointless distraction. Also, did we really need that speech about how wrong Solomon’s situation was? No shit, Sherlock. Unlike much superior WOWS which trusts its audience that they understand the ending isn’t approval of Belfort, this thing has to spell out the most obvious thing. It’ll win but when people look back they’ll lament the fact AMPAS had no balls to award WOWS. Of all these nominees and performances WOWS will stand the test of time and become iconic. 12YS will be like Halle Berry’s “historical” win – few remember, few care since it didn’t do anything for her or others like her.
I’ve seen interviews with McQueen and thought that he was not only very rude and condescending but also two-faced. He grilled white directors about casting white in color blind roles, which would have bene great had he not been guilty of the same (No, Shame character did not have to be Fassbender or white). His muse is a white guy so he’s hardly the most qualified to point out white-washing. Not saying he should reciprocate and cast only black but it’s kind of jarring that when he made a movie with predominantly black cast it was for most stereotypical of roles for black actors. Not at all likable guy and not at all helpful in raising profile of black actors outside niche roles designed to them. My honest opinion is that 12YS wouldn’t garner nearly as much awards fuss if director was white but that it would have been steamrolling Slumdog style through the season if McQueen was a charmer like Ang Lee/Marty/Cuaron and if Ejiofor was a charmer like Elba. As it is, every point that Lupita scores for the team with her red carpet appearances, those two sourpusses dock by two.
“In order to secure public support, you were writing those entries going “Avatar is winning, it’s over, what has world come to?” articles. So this year, you are trying to Avatarize Gravity and Lockerize 12YS, right down to “make history by awarding female/black director” pleas.”
Thing is, Sasha doesn’t hide that she advocates for a movie. “Do I advocate for the film I think deserves to win? YUP.”
And good for her. I wish more Oscar pundits had the balls to do that instead of just parrotting what everyone else is saying. In the busy world a lot of Academy members live in, and given that I’m sure most of them (hello Beyonce, Prince) do not watch most movies, they turn to people who are more informed to tell them what to watch and root for. It’s just reality.
The web needs more people who follow the race to advocate for their favorites.
I don’t always agree with the movie this site touts but it is my favorite site because if you disagree and express so respectfully and thoughtfully, you’ll have an engaged, lively and interesting debate.
Also, if you have another movie you’re advocating for, you can say so here, or open up your own site and root for it. Seriously. I know Sasha thinks we don’t need more Oscar sites, but we do need more sites advocating and less parrotting.
Sasha has her views and they are strongly held. That’s something to be applauded, and if we disagree or see a logical flaw, then just call her out and discuss. It’s way more fun than simply sitting back and just calling the utterly predictable contest the Oscars have sadly become.
Sasha, you forgot to mention the biggest split of them all – 1972
The Godfather wins Best Picture, Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay while Cabaret wins everything else including Best Director!
There you go! It smells exactly like 2013!
If i may play devil’s advocate and definitely NOT to undermine the height of the achievement by truly gifted cast of black filmmakers etc…but someone has to ask the tough questiom: “‘IF Oscar did not snub the Color Purple or several other films directed by blacks that were equally if not more worthy than this years film by black filmmakers then would you all feel as strongly for 12 years a slave?”
If slavery was depicted in the cold harsh reality that it should have been portrayed when it first was on the big screen, can you say for certain that this film on it own merits is truly the outright best film of the year?
These are questions worth pondering what is the reason YOU back 12 years a slave over Gravity? Do you take the bait of oscars own folly or you genuinely believe in your mind it is the best film outright this year?
In a previous post Sasha set the tone and the theme and the mood for this years oscars implying: Oscars big headache of their own bloody making then to say “to redefine the past or embrace the future”.
Yes, artists the world over put their own interpretation on past events through abstract sculptures, painting and art…the great art insitutions the true ones that have been revered in our history that have either come and gone or evolved in our time….that are STILL respected by the global public which is more than what can be said for oscars lack of respect in the eyes of the p8ublic for at least a quarter of it life anyway 1/4 worth of misguided decisions and delusional thinking for the true outright best film of the year, but the fact is never before in our human history since the very first artistic cultural insitution came to fruition has anyone been so stupid to focus on correcting events that happened, decisions that were made- whether rightly or wrongly they were made- like the countless years oscar snubbed female filmmakers, the countless years until Sidney Poitier’s oscar win then that set the tone for Denzel Washington to make history because for oscar it was ALL about correcting their own wrongs.
The greatest tragedy is the underpinning philosophy that oscars own grand failure to recognize the true facts underpinning the true horrors and suffering and agont that was absoutely important to make others aware of on the big screen.
But especially IF 12 years a slave wins best picture at the oscars, it really has to be questioned it right to legitimacy beyond the trajectroy of this oscar season will this be remembered as a great film or merely as the moment oscar sought to correct the error of their ways?
The debate with this years films including GRAVITY is so clouded by i owe you’s exposing to types of films made by two different types of filmmaker groups that socar ignored that it come home to roost…and through oscars own selfishness and misguidedness they have clouded the abiltiy of both these filmas to be declared whether or not they are great.
That is why neither film to me is great…but if oscar had any common wisdom i maintain true justice on the basis of the genre that been ignored by far the most in film history science themed films should win best picture for GRAVITY and best director SHOULD go to 12 years a slave.
But no matter the decision oscar make and if they make the decision i recommend then it shows to us oscar are finally keener on shaping the future how they see fit and embracing current cultural trends and film terchnological evolution all into one while giving the long overdue acknowledgement that Steve McQueen has yearned on behalf of all blacks..and their rightful place in hollywood…i think the achievement of individuals for 12 years a slave is more noteworthy than the collective and it of direct personal acknowledgement by oscar of one mans’ vision and daring that i deeply admire for bringing the true nature force and intimidation of slavery in a way that oscar should have embraced long ago.
I think this combination in a split year is the best outcome ion terms of Oscars reputation in the eyes to the public, that indeed they correct the past but above all else embrace the future trends of filmmaking.
i dare quote from a film past that deserved it visual effects oscar but nothing more from Terminator 2 JUDGEMENT DAY: The future is ahead of us it is ours to shape through decisions we make…path behind us is gone now we look forward.
Ok not quite the direct quote but otherwise implied..
THIS YEAR IS OSCARS JUDGEMENT DAY where thr true litmus test for oscar is putting enormous pressure through a dilemma for both film types countless decades in the making and the public will judge whether oscar truly are or not about shaping the future of filmmaking..and accept some respnsibility that they can not change the past.
What done is done oscar…you cannot change the past or correct it all you can do is make a mense.
if 12 years a slave takes the sweep to win best picture and director i will be furious not cos it does not deserve either one or the other but on it own merits truly it oscar statement correcting their own misdeeds is what the way of their future is at the expense of lack fo respecr and ongoing contempt for the future trend the poublic and critics come to expectr of cinema’s evolving form as a art form.
There is NOTHING to be gained by obsessing about correcting their own mistakes and everything to be gained if they do a split by doing what i recommend right here.
Judgement day is upon you oscar…will u survive the public’s wrath or no? The choice is yours it way past time to embrace the future and ACKNOWLEDGE int he way it should have your own mistake,
if GRAVITY wins best director and slave best picture it proves that oscar continue to discriminate against sci fi or ascience themed films easily the msot creative, ambitious and visionary of art forms that breathe life into hollywood from the 70’s especially right through to today…wthout it hollywood would be lifeless of nothing buyt the ragtag of dramas and comedies alternating between one or the other.
But it will show how in denial and how reluctant oscar continue to be to resist what is inevitable as a film industry trend: the rise of the superior quality blockbuster in both 2d and 3 d but with experimental technologies leading by example showing the way in the advance of cinema as an art form in the 21 st century.
Sp will they take a path to denial in the name of clearing their smeared reputation for fialing to embrace a film of the qualit callibre of Slave from decades and decades and decades ago and ignore the true rising star genre and film trend of the future in GRAVITY?
“The only reason Soderbergh got that Oscar is because he also (somehow) snagged a nom for Erin Brockovich. It made it easy for voters to just say, “well, the guy’s nominated twice, clearly he should get the Oscar,” and then they marked him down for the more acclaimed of the two films.”
Yeah, and, had he lost, you would have said he lost because his two nominations split the vote… 🙂 That’s rationalizing, that’s not really an argument. You’re speculating – there’s no kind of palpable proof either way.
“Gravity” has only “one and a half” performances, but that “one and a half” performances are by two of the most beloved actors in the industry
Very true. All we heard five years ago when ‘The Blind Side’ came out was that Bullock was winning because she is probably the most well-liked and well-respected actress in Hollywood. Her fellow performers love working with her, the film crews love her, directors and writers love working with her, etc. If anyone could carry a “one-person show” to a Best Picture win, it’s Sandra Bullock.
It really seems like American Hustle’s buzz has died off, while Gravity/12 Years are still dominating the conversation. It’ll end up being another Silver Linings Playbook….lots of nominations but ultimately an also-ran on Oscar night (except this year not even Lawrence will get award, so I think Hustle is going 0-for-10).
I’m completely fine with either Gravity or 12 Years A Slave winning, as both are outstanding films and very worthy entries into the Best Picture club. In addition to being great films, a win by either would make history for their own reasons.
Re: the 2000 DGA. The only reason Soderbergh got that Oscar is because he also (somehow) snagged a nom for Erin Brockovich. It made it easy for voters to just say, “well, the guy’s nominated twice, clearly he should get the Oscar,” and then they marked him down for the more acclaimed of the two films. The outlier situation of a twice-nominated director led to an outlier result of him beating the PGA/DGA/precursors sweeper. If it’d been Hallstrom, Crowe, Ed Harris, whomever getting that fifth nominee spot over Soderbergh/Brockovich, then Ang Lee probably wins. Historically speaking, I’m not too broken up about that result — Traffic was an excellent movie in itself and Soderbergh deserved an Oscar for his career achievements, while Lee went on to win two more Director prizes. I just wish the Academy had decided to reward CTHD with the Best Picture award instead of the horribly overrated Gladiator.
Lot harder to pull of? OK. LOL. Whatever.
she’s overrated and just doesn’t have relatable personality. Flash in a pan if there was ever one.
Is there a more glaring troll alert?
I’m not attacking Gravity or Cuaron. Gravity is very good and would have been fantastic with a decent script, and Cuaron is my 2nd favorite director this year.
“Lot harder to pull of? OK. LOL. Whatever.”
I won’t continue with this because I know where it will end up if I do (me having to defend a movie from subjective accusations, which, again, I want to avoid as much as humanly possible, because it’s pointless), but, yes, I strongly believe this. You can LOL all you want…
darylMFdixon, did you see 12YAS? What is it about the film that you find so lackluster of any respect given to it? Your support and love for Cuaron/Gravity, sadly has you attacking 12YAS.
That’s what I find so disheartening in these fan discussions – people attacking other directors, films, and actors/actresses when they pose a threat to their favorites winning. Of all the people hating on McQueen/12YAS, I wonder how many actually saw the movie.
@repDLV
“I wish the Oscars were used to award the best films and not as a vehicle to make history. Oh well.”
You’ve gotten your wish 98% of the time in AMPAS 86 years. They don’t make “history” often, trust me on this, and find peace in their history.
Lot harder to pull of? OK. LOL. Whatever.
I’m sure 12YS and McQueen will win but there will be backlash in a long run. And Nyong’o won’t have career to speak of after her win not because Hollywood doesn’t know what to do with a beautiful black actress but because she’s overrated and just doesn’t have relatable personality. Flash in a pan if there was ever one.
“Sasha, you are doing the same thing you did when Hurt Locker was an obvious frontrunner. In order to secure public support, you were writing those entries going “Avatar is winning, it’s over, what has world come to?” articles. So this year, you are trying to Avatarize Gravity and Lockerize 12YS, right down to “make history by awarding female/black director” pleas.”
If she is, I hope she succeeds this time as well!
“Boggles my mind that anyone could root against him.”
Well, I honestly believe Steve McQueen’s direction in 12 Years a Slave is a touch better (and a lot harder to pull off).
Sasha, you are doing the same thing you did when Hurt Locker was an obvious frontrunner. In order to secure public support, you were writing those entries going “Avatar is winning, it’s over, what has world come to?” articles. So this year, you are trying to Avatarize Gravity and Lockerize 12YS, right down to “make history by awarding female/black director” pleas.
Trouble here is, Cuaron is Bigelow – the charming, humble, likable one – while McQueen is Cameron – the obnoxious, unlikable one. So I can’t sympathize with your crusade to get McQueen his “historical” win when the guy isn’t the best director of the bunch (you think Scorcese and WOWS were better director and movie, unlike Locker situation when you were 100% aboard Locker and Bigelow train) and he is a dour prickly pear. Tough sell.
I hope Cuaron wins his deserved Director Oscar. He went out of his way like nobody else to make a groundbreaking movie, his unprecedented achievement is undeniable, and he’s such a sweet, humble, graceful, charming man. Boggles my mind that anyone could root against him.
Trouble here is, Cuaron is Bigelow – the charming, humble, likable one – while McQueen is Cameron – the obnoxious, unlikable one.
Have you met Steve McQueen? Cameron and Bigelow were married. That along gave the race a narrative. There was no competition that year — Hurt Locker was far and away the winner. But 12 Years did not win the DGA. You are incorrect in your comparison of Cuaron as Bigelow. How is that exactly? Was it hard for him to get Gravity made? Nope, plug and play effects movie. Does Cuaron have many opportunities in Hollywood? Yup. Did his movie make a shit ton of money? Yup. Did he direct a Harry Potter franchise? YUP. So give me a break. There is no comparison between who Bigelow was and who he is. Guys who make movies like Gravity, as good as it is, have what I like to call the golden key to the crapper. Winning best picture for him and that film is kind of cool? But what does it ultimately mean. I wish I had the power to throw this race. If I had that kind of power, The Social Network, Hugo, and Lincoln would have won Best Picture — as it was, they didn’t. Mediocre films won instead (but The Artist is a great movie, even still). Do I advocate for the film I think deserves to win? YUP. Is there any film that deserves to win over 12 Years? Only one, and that’s Wolf of Wall Street. Gravity, American Hustle, thanks for playing. Wolf can’t win, thus, all of my chips go behind 12 Years a Slave. I am hoping it wins. Losing the DGA meant that, sadly, its chances dropped significantly.
Maybe Her could snag some votes and win BP?
So cool! There’s a guy predicting American Hustle to win at Gurus o’ Gold… Props for courage to go against the majority, while still making a highly plausible prediction. Liked!
“Still. a massive group like the DGA went for Cuaron. That is pretty much the only thing that matters.”
Huh?! The directors aren’t even 10% of the total number of voters and, for all we know, McQueen could have had 25% of the votes and Cuaron 60% (I’m trying to use numbers you won’t scoff at – it could have been much, much closer than this, and I think it’s highly unlikely the difference was any bigger, especially given how competitive the year has been in BP so far, and since you yourself state that the DGA is just as good at predicting BP as BD), leaving 15% for everybody else. If those percentages hold when the directors’ branch votes, that’ll be a difference between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave of only 100-150 votes at most, which I think will easily be recovered (and surpassed) by the actors’ and writers’ branches votes (especially the latter, which should heavily generate votes for Gravity’s opponents – the first might lean more towards AH) going in 12 Years a Slave’s direction.
[ Edit: I see Bryce has applied the same logic I did for the directors’ branch to the actors’ branch. I think he IS being a bit generous with Gravity there, but it’s still a valid point. But the writers not going nearly all-out for 12 Years – between the 3 in the race – is much harder to argue, because AH didn’t win the WGA and Gravity wasn’t nominated. Plus, a 20% difference within the actors’ branch works out to about 200-230 votes, which is already (probably significantly) bigger than any conceivable difference within any of the other branches in Gravity’s favor. “provided of course that the majority of Directors, Cinematographers, Editors, etc vote for GRAVITY.” – we’ve just seen proof tonight that this is by no means a given… ]
And I’ve already argued as to why there’s no reason there’ll be huge domination by Gravity among the technical branches for BP votes: because those each have far less to do with what’s best picture of the year overall and what’s not than directing, acting and writing, and everyone, the voters included, is aware of it, I imagine. Their BP predicting records prove this quite conclusively, actually.
Besides, Gravity just lost the Eddie, so it’s still quite unclear just how dominant it will be in the technical department come Oscar night. There you go, there’s the one it can lose – and easily. Others might well follow, and so the 6-7 Oscars for Gravity theory is starting to look shakier and shakier…
“Here are the reasons pundits are switching to Gravity:
1) Splits are near impossible to predict.
2) The DGA almost always calls Best Picture.”
1) Wrong! In 4 out of the 8 mathematically provable most competitive years since 1995 there has been a split, which makes it RISKY to predict, but definitely not impossible. I’ve already argued this point (as I have many others).
2) “almost always” is a stretch and, again, you’re counting years in which a movie won the DGA+PGA+SAG (+ everything else imaginable, most of the time), which are obviously irrelevant to the discussion about this year (a completely different one, guild distribution-wise), and in which both the PGA and the SAG also called Best Picture. And even their individual percentages – especially the PGA – aren’t really that far behind the DGA’s; since 1995/96: 77.7% for the DGA, 66.6% for the PGA, 50% for the SAG. 78% is a weak percentage for BP prediction, so clearly the DGA alone cannot be counted as a reliable predicting tool, but has to be combined with the other 3 big guilds to form a clear overall picture of the voting patterns of the 4 most important (I’m not even necessarily talking about numbers) branches of the Academy. The stats for the combined predicted winners prove this (at most 2/18 favorites didn’t win since 1995/96, for 88.8%, and this in spite of the fact that there have been at least 5-6 rather competitive years during this period).
“3. In a split year, the film that wins is generally either the SAG ensemble winner (American Hustle), or the crowd pleaser (Gravity).”
Again, Ryan’s interpretation (established director wins BD, movie directed by relative newcomer wins BP) is equally good, both logically and percentage-wise, and also far less debatable (as it can be proven with facts).
“4. If there is that much overwhelming support for Cuaron, Oscar season dictates that Gravity is also your best picture winner.”
Yet the support for 12 Years a Slave in Best Picture has also been quite overwhelming (since we’re counting critics’ awards, which I think we shouldn’t, because their records are really poor, large voting bodies or nor) – McQueen has won some BD trophies here and there, but Gravity has won, what is it, two BP trophies all year?! One of them tied… To 12 Years’ 20 or whatever…
“I’ll hold onto my official prediction of McQueen and 12 Years just because I think someone ought to.”
I don’t think that’s a very convincing argument – there are PLENTY of people (still a majority, actually) who are predicting 12 Years a Slave right now. If Gravity wins the BAFTA and you still stick with your current prediction, THEN you can say you’re in the minority (because I imagine most would indeed switch at that point, bookies included), but you’ve already stated you’ll probably switch to Gravity as well in that case…
“Is it over yet?”
Most definitely not.
***
“I’m pulling an Argo year perspective — stats virtually mean nada, zero”
Except that that’s completely untrue, since Argo won in perfect agreement with the stats, which made it the rather significant favorite DESPITE the director snub – if you don’t believe me, ask the specialists what they were predicting last year after the guilds and BAFTA, and look at the odds for Argo to win BP, if you can find them. It was considered an even heavier favorite than I, personally, think it was, and pretty much everybody who predicts professionally is aware of the stats.
“Hustle might still have a chance at BP regardless of stats.”
It still has a chance BECAUSE of the stats, and a pretty good one at that…
“If the AMPAS doesn’t give 12 Years a Slave Best Picture they will never live it down.”
They’ve lived down far worse.
“If ”AMPAS likes to make history,” why has it taken the Academy 86 years to get to this point? ”12 Years” could be the first black-themed picture to win the Oscar, but the Academy could’ve made history in 1973 with ”Sounder” or in 1985 with ”The Color Purple.” If AMPAS really wanted to make history, a black director would’ve won years ago; the first woman director would’ve won sooner than 2009, and an acclaimed love story of gay cowboys would’ve won Best Picture.”
The same argument goes for Gravity, as a space movie has never won BP. History would be made there too…
“When the movie opened it was the undeniable Best Picture. Then it did the routine that Argo did– faded for a bit, then it will come (has come) roaring back in the end.”
Yeah, I was thinking that too. Of course, if it loses BAFTA, that’s sort of invalidated, but it can still win (and, for me, would still be the favorite).
“A satisfying ending. The good guy wins, there’s not any moral ambiguity, there is a clear distinction between right and wrong and, oh, guess what, the white man is ultimately the savior–Brad Pitt (the producer) (and to an extent the official form up North) saves the day–he’s the only one with balls enough to stand up for Solomon. Again, the typical movie that deals with black themes–the white man is ultimately the savior. Northrup is of course the main hero–he survives, and what an ordeal that was–but he would have never made it without the white man to help him through.”
Yup. This too.
12 Years a Slave will win because it is the most “Oscar” picture of the bunch. It’s an Oscar movie in the sense Braveheart or Dances with Wolves is (except it’s good, while those two are not, but you know what I mean– 12YAS feels and is important in unimaginable ways).
When the movie opened it was the undeniable Best Picture. Then it did the routine that Argo did– faded for a bit, then it will come (has come) roaring back in the end.
And here are some things that fit 12YAS into recent Oscar patterns, which are further reasons why it will unequivocally win:
It represents the Academy rewarding foreigners, and not Hollywood. The King’s Speech, The Artist, etc., are in recent years, what 12YAS will be when it wins.
No real strong female lead. One is insane (Fassbender’s wife). Woodard’s character is…a product of her times I guess. And N’Yongo’s character is of course the biggest victim, it’s not her fault, but she’s not a strong woman in the picture (she’s a survivor though, so that counts a lot). By the way, those three performances blow all of the rest of the cast out of the water, but the characters are certainly not powerfully strong independent women. We haven’t had one of those in a BP winner in years, and that trend will continue.
A satisfying ending. The good guy wins, there’s not any moral ambiguity, there is a clear distinction between right and wrong and, oh, guess what, the white man is ultimately the savior–Brad Pitt (the producer) (and to an extent the official form up North) saves the day–he’s the only one with balls enough to stand up for Solomon. Again, the typical movie that deals with black themes–the white man is ultimately the savior. Northrup is of course the main hero–he survives, and what an ordeal that was–but he would have never made it without the white man to help him through.
A black man telling a story that is not about his own ancestral experience. Much like Cuaron, McQueen, being British, is not telling the story of his people. He’s, obviously, of the same skin color as American slaves, but skin color does not matter. This is not McQueen’s experience anymore than Cuaron making a movie about the political prisoners of Argentina would be.
12 Years a Slave will be a deserving winner–certainly more than the last three BP winners–and it will make history in the sense that a person with black skin will have for the first time won the BP Oscar. But, at the same time, we should not kid ourselves into thinking that that is enough. When will the Academy recognize one of our own for its own value? A story by us about us? Why does it take a foreigner to teach us these lessons? And when will movies just be judged on the basis of merit and not on the basis of the directors skin—i.e., why do different directors have to live up to different expectations in 2014?
”I wish the Oscars were used to award the best films and not as a vehicle to make history.”
Those two things are not necessarily exclusive. Sometimes, the ”best” films can be also the ones that make history.
If ”12 Years” becomes the first black film to win Best Picture in 86 years, that’s an indisputable fact. Who’s to say whether it won because more voters genuinely LOVE the movie, or because the voters wanted to make history? Or both? … Why do some assume that if a black film wins, it probably has to do with racial politics and making a statement? But when a white film wins, it’s purely ”merit”?
”I wish the Oscars were used to award the best films and not as a vehicle to make history.”
Sometimes they do both. The Oscars sometimes award the best film and make history at the same time. That happens roughly once every 10 years.
Which is exactly why whenever I invoke the DGA for anything, I always start from 1950-onwards, as that’s when they adopted the Oscar calendar. 🙂
I wonder about screeners. If the majority of AMPAS voters saw Gravity in 3D or IMAX etc., well, it’s a stunning film and it would have left a lasting impression. However, if they watched Gravity on a smaller screen, the impact would have lessened. It’s still a stunning achievement, that directors in particular could relate to, but I wonder if it would gain the requite support if viewed this way. 12 Years, by contrast, would make the same impression either way.
Just a thought
Oh enough with “12 Years a Slave”…it’s overrated, and I really hate saying that because I really think it to be a great film, but deserving of Oscar? Absolutely not!! And it’s not the best film of the year!!
I wish the Oscars were used to award the best films and not as a vehicle to make history. Oh well.
If ”AMPAS likes to make history,” why has it taken the Academy 86 years to get to this point? ”12 Years” could be the first black-themed picture to win the Oscar, but the Academy could’ve made history in 1973 with ”Sounder” or in 1985 with ”The Color Purple.” If AMPAS really wanted to make history, a black director would’ve won years ago; the first woman director would’ve won sooner than 2009, and an acclaimed love story of gay cowboys would’ve won Best Picture.
To be technical, A Letter to Three Wives’s Joseph L. Mankiewicz won the DGA for the (non-calendar) 1948 year, but the Oscars considered it for the 1949 year which it won Best Director, lending to a rather bizarre situation for the DGA’s first year.
Hard to watch and digest and all 12 Years a Slave will win best picture. Gravity is it’s closest competition but that one still, even winning PGA+DGA, even being probably the most rewarded movie on oscar night with all those tech awards + a likely director win, has to overcome the BIGS obstacles of having no screenplay nod, virtually a one actor show (who turns out to be a woman, and only 3 times in oscar history does a movie with only female lead roles wins best picture, another disadvantage), a short runtime, bias that “it’s only a sci-fi space thrill movie!”, and having no historical or social important content.
I guess this will be a resemblance of 1972 when the most rewarded movie took home a big bunch of oscars but not the main one, which went to another movie which “just” got 3, and turned to be more memorable.
12 Years will win.
I want it to be Wolf, but they will give into the historical, important epic.
Then again, Affleck beat Abraham Lincoln so anything is possible.
12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture. Why doesn’t everyone stop with the counternarratives? It’s the best film of the year. If the AMPAS doesn’t give 12 Years a Slave Best Picture they will never live it down.
[Edited and re-sent]
I’m guessing the actors (voters) might prefer Hustle and/or 12 Years, with or without cancelling out each other, to begin with.
Hustle might still have a chance at BP regardless of stats.
Bryce. Awesome post.
It’s not about the feel-good films winning in the split years. The ones who win BD are the directors who directed the more logistically ambitious, epic-like films. Remember the AMPAS often thinks that Best Director means a director who can move mountains.
BP winners/feel-good movies is just a coincidence.
Thanks for some thoughts and another good read, Sasha.
“One and a half performances . . . .”
LOL with our Slim (Ms. Stone). Steve (Mr. Vanity Fair Front Cover) must have choked on his coffee reading this, if ever. xD
I’m pulling an Argo year perspective — stats virtually mean nada, zero . . . .
What’s more, someone might need to be rooting for Hustle for a change. So, here I am . . . . Not to mention, as Sasha’s also said here, what about the actors (voters) . . . ?(I’m guessing they would prefer Hustle and/or 12 Years, to begin with.)
@seren, yes. If a film like Gravity could ever win, it’s now, with Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. 12YAS is starting to feel like an also-ran to me, like The Killing Fields to Gravity’s Amadeus. Obviously, there are key differences, but you get my point.
The closest thing we have to a precedent for a 12YAS-Cuaron split are those split years in the 1940s when I believe they used the preferential ballot, yes? So All the King’s Men, the pessimistic, smart, forward-thinking choice, wins Picture, but Director goes to the more famous Hollywood name for A Letter to Three Wives, which I don’t exactly think you’d call a huge crowdpleaser or a stunning directorial achievement.
Maybe 1948 is more comparable. Hamlet wins, probably on the strength of the actors, and Olivier wins for acting, so they don’t feel the need to award him twice. Instead Director goes to the better film (but more a crowdpleaser than an arthouse drama) and the more prolific Hollywood filmmaker, John Huston for The Treasure of the Sierra Madre.f
Whenever there’s a Picture-Director split, Picture goes to the more accessible film. OR Director goes to the bigger, more overdue name. Cases in point:
2002: Roman Polanski was a bigger name than Rob Marshall, so maybe it wasn’t just that The Pianist was a more important story than Chicago, which obviously had the broad-based support all season.
2000: Ang Lee literally won EVERYTHING for Crouching Tiger – the Globe, DGA, and BAFTA – but when respected director Ridley Scott lost the Oscar, it was because the actors banded together behind Steven Soderbergh for Traffic.
1981: Maybe Chariots of Fire is more accessible than Reds; maybe Reds is the more important story. But the bottom line is the Academy chose the Director they knew, even if they didn’t prefer the film.
Alfonso Cuaron is not a movie star or someone the majority of the Academy is really going to feel is overdue. But he comes off like less of an outsider than Steve McQueen, I sense. All season long the praise has gone to Cuaron for what he accomplished, whereas 12 Years a Slave was seen as less a directorial accomplishment.
The biggest precedent for Gravity not winning, and even Cuaron still losing? Ang Lee winning everything for Crouching Tiger, but Crouching Tiger not winning any of the Picture precursors, and Soderbergh winning the Oscar. Of course, Gravity does have a shared PGA win; it’s in English; it features the biggest stars on the planet; Cuaron could win for the Editing, but otherwise, there’s no lesser Best Picture award (foreign or animated) to delegate to the film.
I can’t think of any stronger statistical precedent for 12YAS and Cuaron both winning.
I mean since the theory is that actors hate GRAVITY (or something like that) I could argue that GRAVITY probably only needs strong support (i.e., #1 & #2 placements) from, let’s say, 20% of the actors? I can honestly see 20% of the actors going for GRAVITY. Hell even 15%, to be more pessimistic, after all they nominated 1/1.5 of the performance (because now Clooney is a 1/2, and he’s Clooney), so I don’t think I’m being overly generous with GRAVITY. And then they go I don’t know 45% for 12 YEARS and 40% for HUSTLE since we’re “sure” those are the movies the actors loved. Point is, I say that’d be pretty much enough for GRAVITY to win BP, provided of course that the majority of Directors, Cinematographers, Editors, etc vote for GRAVITY. Still enough even if we accept as reality the ridiculous delusion that 0% of the writers vote for GRAVITY because there’s “evidence” the branch hated it. So again, I’d say that support would suffice to win Best Picture and Best Director. But I’ll end my speculations by saying that, indeed, 12 YEARS A SLAVE has the edge. Even if GRAVITY wins ACE whenever that is, 12 YEARS will sweep BAFTA which is a show all the persuadable AMPAS members watch (take it this way: If you’re an AMPAS member who tunes to the BAFTA show, then it’s highly likely you’re a susceptible individual who doesn’t have much to occupy your time, says me). AMPAS members who don’t watch BAFTA are probably busy making movies and have no idea when that show is e.g., David Fincher shooting GONE GIRL.
p.s. Nothing of what I just wrote is an opinion on the merits of the films GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE.
we know more tonight. BP winners win guilds, often just because…. just because it’s the thing.
I would not be surprised if Her wins. It beat AH at the WGA so why not ACE? It peaked weeks ago, IMO.
One and a half performances? How can there be a half performance? lol
I really think _12 Years_ is less divisive than _Gravity_, and that _12 Years_ will get more #2 and #3 votes, while _Gravity_ could get some (enough) #4, #5, #6 votes to come in second place.
“Things that still needle me, though: What of the actors? Are they going to break with tradition and vote for a film that has one and a half performances in it? That seems impossible. They’re much more likely to go for Hustle or 12 Years. Also, that PGA vote for 12 Years still lingers — and can’t be denied. It shows there is enormous support for both films on a preferential ballot.”
Yes. Things are the things that tell me _12 Years_ for the win. Of course _Gravity_ won DGA. Not rewarding Cuaron for that is like not rewarding Spielberg for _Saving Private Ryan_. The question is: does that Director’s movie have to win? And the answer in 1998 and now is, No.
“12 Years a Slave” changed my life. It’s a masterpiece, as I’ve said over and over. And Sasha has said over and over.
People (pundits) can’t stand that an African-American perspective from a black filmmaker is going to win their Lily White oscar.
Last time I checked Lily White was not a Member of the Academy.
AMPAS likes to make history. “12 YAS” will do that, as Sasha keeps so beautifully saying.
“Gravity” has only “one and a half” performances, but that “one and a half” perfomances are by two of the most beloved actors in the industry. And that level of achievement by them, critically and commercially, could draw a lot of supports by actors. And actors votes could split up for “American Hustle” and “12 Years A Slave.” That said, I still think “12 Years A Slave” will win the Best Picture.
Overanalyzed. 12 Years still has the edge to win.
Well, I’m not a official “pundit”, but I’m sticking with 12YAS as Best Picture. Although I enjoyed Gravity, it simply did not have a lasting effect on me. It was another fantastic space adventure (again, my favorite genre), but 12YAS haunted me days afterwards and all people can learn from it if they find the balls to watch this difficult, but well-made film.
12 Years a Slave is the best film of 2013 so it must win the Oscar.