Stu Van Airsdale has put up his Oscar Index and I was surprised to find he put Michael Fassbender for Shame first when many aren’t even predicting him to be nominated. He also has Meryl Streep in first place, followed by Glenn Close and Viola Davis (doesn’t he read Awards Daily?).
For supporting actress he has Octavia Spencer for The Help. But he’s also put Melissa McCarthy from Bridesmaids in the running. That’s a good call.
He’s got Christopher Plummer in the lead for Supporting Actor followed by Albert Brooks.
But I’m still stuck back on Michael Fassbender in the frontrunner’s spot. That be some crazy shit right there, not that I’m complaining – I love outside-the-box thinking.
My frontrunners would be (only by what’s been, not by what’s coming)
Best Picture: Moneyball vs. The Descendants
Best Actor: Brad Pitt vs. George Clooney vs. Jean Dujardin vs. Leonardo Dicaprio vs. Michael Fassbender vs. Gary Oldman (tight ass race)
Best Actress: Viola Davis, followed by Streep vs. Close. Have a funny feeling about Rooney Mara
Best Supporting Actor: Plummer vs. Brooks
Best Supporting Actress: Spencer vs. Redgrave
But it’s early yet. Movieline’s Oscar Index is here.
Something tells me the Meryl Streep fans — and they be many — will head on over and wrap their arms around Stu. Me, I don’t quite have faith that this will finally be the role to pull Meryl Streep through to her third Oscar win. It’s certainly possible but it’s going to have be better than her best work, or close to. She turns in so many great performances it’s hard to single out just one.
I have been a fan of Michael Fassbenders since i seen IB…and i can honestly say that this man is the BEST ACTOR not just this year but in everything he does. He should be a shoe in for a nomination in the BA category and possibly win, he is to good to pass up.
I have been a fan of Michael Fassbenders since i seen IB…and i can honestly say that this man is the BEST ACTOR not just this year but in everything he does. He should be a shoe in for a nomination in the BA category and possibly win, he is to good to pass up.
Dolphin Tale got an A+ from readers of boxofficemojo.com while Moneyball got an A. I told you that fish was a menace.
Dolphin Tale got an A+ from readers of boxofficemojo.com while Moneyball got an A. I told you that fish was a menace.
It’s so encouraging reading all the support here at AD for an Oscar nomination for Michael. I am 99% confident he has the nomination in the bag. He was overlooked for ‘Hunger’ due to the studio failing to market him and the film appropriately. Since then, the man has consistently churned out high quality work, and NEXT year, he has several more films. He’s hot and AMPAS would be foolish to not acknowledge him now with a nomination and hopeful win as Best Actor.
It’s so encouraging reading all the support here at AD for an Oscar nomination for Michael. I am 99% confident he has the nomination in the bag. He was overlooked for ‘Hunger’ due to the studio failing to market him and the film appropriately. Since then, the man has consistently churned out high quality work, and NEXT year, he has several more films. He’s hot and AMPAS would be foolish to not acknowledge him now with a nomination and hopeful win as Best Actor.
I must say, that even though I was not a big fan of Bullock’s populist win at all, it was still a much more well-judged (even restrained) performance than either Streep’s nauseating Julie & Julia performance or Mirren’s stale portrayal of Tolstoy’s estranged wife in The Last Station. Just saying. Carey Mulligan should have won that year, but then again, the competition was below par, to say the least.
Therefore it was such a relief that last year’s race was full of great performances (Kidman, Bening, Williams, Portman, Lawrence – all superb!)
I must say, that even though I was not a big fan of Bullock’s populist win at all, it was still a much more well-judged (even restrained) performance than either Streep’s nauseating Julie & Julia performance or Mirren’s stale portrayal of Tolstoy’s estranged wife in The Last Station. Just saying. Carey Mulligan should have won that year, but then again, the competition was below par, to say the least.
Therefore it was such a relief that last year’s race was full of great performances (Kidman, Bening, Williams, Portman, Lawrence – all superb!)
@brandz
I didn’t mean to badmouth her Ironweed performance (really tragic and that bar scene always gets me…), but she has not recieved major attention for that before. It’s her only Oscar nomination she did NOT recieved a Globe nom for.
That’s why it’s more a filler for me, although it was a surprising one.
@brandz
I didn’t mean to badmouth her Ironweed performance (really tragic and that bar scene always gets me…), but she has not recieved major attention for that before. It’s her only Oscar nomination she did NOT recieved a Globe nom for.
That’s why it’s more a filler for me, although it was a surprising one.
Meryl Streep is good at transforming into these characters, but I can never connect with her emotionally. I think that’s what ultimately holds her performances back. I agree about Sandra Bullock being a silly choice for an oscar winner let alone nominee. but I don’t think its accurate to say that Streep deserves so many Oscars.
I think Michelle Williams is a decent pick this year.
Meryl Streep is good at transforming into these characters, but I can never connect with her emotionally. I think that’s what ultimately holds her performances back. I agree about Sandra Bullock being a silly choice for an oscar winner let alone nominee. but I don’t think its accurate to say that Streep deserves so many Oscars.
I think Michelle Williams is a decent pick this year.
Is it just me, or is this buzz surrounding Meryl Streep’s performance as Margaret Thatcher eerily similar to the buzz she received for her performance as Julia Child two years ago, at the exact same time of year? I’m sorry, but if a wholly un-special performance from Sandra Bullock could beat Streep turning in a performance as an imminently likable non-fictional character, there’s no way she can win with a portrayal of someone as divisible as Margaret Thatcher.
I’m seeing The Descendants, The Skin I Live In, A Dangerous Method, The Artist, Shame, My Week With Marilyn, Carnage, Melancholia, and Martha Marcy May Marlene at the New York Film Festival. Yeah!!
Is it just me, or is this buzz surrounding Meryl Streep’s performance as Margaret Thatcher eerily similar to the buzz she received for her performance as Julia Child two years ago, at the exact same time of year? I’m sorry, but if a wholly un-special performance from Sandra Bullock could beat Streep turning in a performance as an imminently likable non-fictional character, there’s no way she can win with a portrayal of someone as divisible as Margaret Thatcher.
I’m seeing The Descendants, The Skin I Live In, A Dangerous Method, The Artist, Shame, My Week With Marilyn, Carnage, Melancholia, and Martha Marcy May Marlene at the New York Film Festival. Yeah!!
Streep in Ironweed was certainly a more demanding performance than the eventual winner Cher who won for flavor of the year.
Take Streep’s worst performance and it would still better than Bullock’s Oscar winning performance.
Take Streep’s worst performance and it would still better than Bullock’s Oscar winning performance.
rarely hear it expressed in such stark terms,
stark and true
Streep in Ironweed was certainly a more demanding performance than the eventual winner Cher who won for flavor of the year.
Take Streep’s worst performance and it would still better than Bullock’s Oscar winning performance.
Take Streep’s worst performance and it would still better than Bullock’s Oscar winning performance.
rarely hear it expressed in such stark terms,
stark and true
@Sonja
Streep in Ironweed is hardly filler. It was an outstanding performance in a so-so film.
@Sonja
Streep in Ironweed is hardly filler. It was an outstanding performance in a so-so film.
If Oscars were given for the best performance Streep would have had 5?6? Oscars by now. Instead it is given for popularity, for being hot, for being flavor of the year. How else can we explain Sandra Bullock winning an Oscar for a mediocre performance? They will give Jennifer Anniston an Oscar before they give one to Streep.
At this point the the Oscar show needs Streep more than she needs an Oscar.
If Oscars were given for the best performance Streep would have had 5?6? Oscars by now. Instead it is given for popularity, for being hot, for being flavor of the year. How else can we explain Sandra Bullock winning an Oscar for a mediocre performance? They will give Jennifer Anniston an Oscar before they give one to Streep.
At this point the the Oscar show needs Streep more than she needs an Oscar.
This is Sasha Stone who has called Viola Davis “overdue”.
Viola Davis who has one, REPEAT ONE, Oscar nomination under her belt is overdue for a lead actress Oscar for what amounts to a supporting performance.
This is Sasha Stone who has called Viola Davis “overdue”.
Viola Davis who has one, REPEAT ONE, Oscar nomination under her belt is overdue for a lead actress Oscar for what amounts to a supporting performance.
The academy doesn’t need to go for Shame, to go for Fassbender in Shame
The same way many academy members claimed Biutiful was too hard too watch, yet Bardem still got nominated. We’re not talking about the Best Film, we’re talking about the Best Actor.
The academy doesn’t need to go for Shame, to go for Fassbender in Shame
The same way many academy members claimed Biutiful was too hard too watch, yet Bardem still got nominated. We’re not talking about the Best Film, we’re talking about the Best Actor.
I totally agree with you, DIEGO, about Streep’s Kennedy honor outweighing another Oscar … but BOTH in the same year would be great, wouldn’t it!!!
I totally agree with you, DIEGO, about Streep’s Kennedy honor outweighing another Oscar … but BOTH in the same year would be great, wouldn’t it!!!
Fassbender is in. shame has to much hype and to many raves to not get nods.
Fassbender is in. shame has to much hype and to many raves to not get nods.
I also think Fassbender has a chance to get nominated.Academy likes to nominate actors who have a lot of movies in one year.For that he could even win, but not this year when Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio are in the running, and these two are previous nominees,big stars,respected within the industry and never won.I just hope there will be place left for Gary Oldman to get that first nomination.I hope his colleagues respect him enough.I think locks for best actor are Clooney, Pitt, DiCaprio, hopefully Oldman, Fassbender or Dujardin.
I also think Fassbender has a chance to get nominated.Academy likes to nominate actors who have a lot of movies in one year.For that he could even win, but not this year when Brad Pitt and Leonardo DiCaprio are in the running, and these two are previous nominees,big stars,respected within the industry and never won.I just hope there will be place left for Gary Oldman to get that first nomination.I hope his colleagues respect him enough.I think locks for best actor are Clooney, Pitt, DiCaprio, hopefully Oldman, Fassbender or Dujardin.
Fassbender will be in!!! that Tuesday Morning. Look at his roles this year…
Brandon in SHAME
Rochester in JANE EYRE
Carl Jung inA DANGEROUS METHOD
Magneto in X MEN: FIRST CLASS
He deserves it, Gosling is great but not that great, definitely the Actor of the Year is Fassbender.
Fassbender will be in!!! that Tuesday Morning. Look at his roles this year…
Brandon in SHAME
Rochester in JANE EYRE
Carl Jung inA DANGEROUS METHOD
Magneto in X MEN: FIRST CLASS
He deserves it, Gosling is great but not that great, definitely the Actor of the Year is Fassbender.
I’m with you on that. Shame that Kate and Jack usually played various incarnations of themselves – and won, while MS changes her persona completely and can’t get arrested!
I’m with you on that. Shame that Kate and Jack usually played various incarnations of themselves – and won, while MS changes her persona completely and can’t get arrested!
@steve50
The win is ALWAYS the challenge. Her third, I mean.
Her THIRD! I know people are moaning about this and I understand it, but she has now lost constaintly twelve times, the amount of the nominations of Nicholson and Hepburn, who were able to win 3 and 4 Oscars.
I don’t know if Meryl will ever win again. I’m hoping it, but if she does, I hope it’s really because of her performance and not because she had to wait so long. I don’t want that for Glenn Close either.
@steve50
The win is ALWAYS the challenge. Her third, I mean.
Her THIRD! I know people are moaning about this and I understand it, but she has now lost constaintly twelve times, the amount of the nominations of Nicholson and Hepburn, who were able to win 3 and 4 Oscars.
I don’t know if Meryl will ever win again. I’m hoping it, but if she does, I hope it’s really because of her performance and not because she had to wait so long. I don’t want that for Glenn Close either.
@Sonja
I don’t think anyone in their right mind would bet against a nomination for MS – it’s a sure thing. It’s the win that’s the challenge. And I doubt that a win means that much to her, her fans (of which I’m one), her career, or to her position at the top of the acting hierarchy. She’s pretty much untouchable – even “prayers” from the darkside won’t prevent her nomination.
@Sonja
I don’t think anyone in their right mind would bet against a nomination for MS – it’s a sure thing. It’s the win that’s the challenge. And I doubt that a win means that much to her, her fans (of which I’m one), her career, or to her position at the top of the acting hierarchy. She’s pretty much untouchable – even “prayers” from the darkside won’t prevent her nomination.
Is it really a wonder the woman with the most nominations of an Oscar is the frontrunner on most websites?
Plus she’s playing a real controversal (ex)politician, one of the most baitiest role she has ever played since… well Sophie.
People doubt she’s getting nominated… based on fifteen SECONDS of a one minute TEASER trailer. Good, maybe if they pray enough they will have their will.
Won’t hurt her. I don’t think she’s going to win, but her performance must be reviewed very VERY bad NOT to get nominated. It’s not impossible, but will be very hard imo.
Come on. 16 nominations, even with fillers like Iron Weed, One true Thing or Music of the Heart… The Academy is nuts about her.
Is it really a wonder the woman with the most nominations of an Oscar is the frontrunner on most websites?
Plus she’s playing a real controversal (ex)politician, one of the most baitiest role she has ever played since… well Sophie.
People doubt she’s getting nominated… based on fifteen SECONDS of a one minute TEASER trailer. Good, maybe if they pray enough they will have their will.
Won’t hurt her. I don’t think she’s going to win, but her performance must be reviewed very VERY bad NOT to get nominated. It’s not impossible, but will be very hard imo.
Come on. 16 nominations, even with fillers like Iron Weed, One true Thing or Music of the Heart… The Academy is nuts about her.
Bebe you’re right I didn’t take the into consideration. And there have been many years where I was sitting watching the nominations being announced and shook head and wondered where the hell did that come from. So yes that’s a well taken point.
Bebe you’re right I didn’t take the into consideration. And there have been many years where I was sitting watching the nominations being announced and shook head and wondered where the hell did that come from. So yes that’s a well taken point.
Actually if Albert Nobbs is such a film that doesn’t make people enthusiastic, I doubt Close being overdue could overcome that. I believe that it’s going to be Meryl this time. Glenn Close is one of these actresses that many people simply can’t relate to…
Actually if Albert Nobbs is such a film that doesn’t make people enthusiastic, I doubt Close being overdue could overcome that. I believe that it’s going to be Meryl this time. Glenn Close is one of these actresses that many people simply can’t relate to…
Re:Nic
One can break down how the whole voting system works. You may be right and the whole race may narrow down to those two. But time and time again, with vey few excepts, one is not nominated by the performance alone. If you break it down further, one also have to consider the “demographics” of the voting bodies for each category. There are a thousand odd actors in the branch. The vast majority of them are not young. That demographic is different than most critics and especially the posters here. That can help explain why some films/actors triumph over some critical darlings. To some it may seem like a shock while to others it’s no surprise. If one is to predict the Oscars, I think it is important to take that into consideration as well.
There are a thousand odd actors in the branch. The vast majority of them are not young. That demographic is different than most critics and especially the posters here.
I grumble about this annually and usually wait to spark later in the season when tempers are more combustible — but bebe gives me an opportunity to get it out of my system early this year.
It’s my belief that most of the worst mistakes the Academy has made over the years can be blamed on the actors branch. Never makes any sense to me that actors comprise nearly 20% of the Academy while directors represent only 5%. yeesh, I hesitate to say the inmates are running the asylum, but … I didn’t hesitate very long, did I?
Cinematographers, a mere 3%. Perhaps I wouldn’t suggest that cinematographers are necessarily more artistically sophisticated and discerning than actors. On the other hand, yes I would.
There were 27 actors invited to join the Academy last year. Only 8 new directors (Gregg Araki, Susanne Bier, Neil Burger, Lisa Cholodenko, Debra Granik, Tom Hooper, Yojiro Takita). As much as I love new inductee Mila Kunis and sort of sometimes can tolerate Russell Brand, I’ll bet I’d rather own duplicates of Neil Burger’s DVD collection than the collection at Beyonce’s house.
Was that explanation too oblique? Sure, I know there are 1000 actors in Hollywood for every director. 1000 times as many unemployed actors.
I don’t know how long ago the AMPAS began announcing the list of new invitees each year, but I wish some uber-geek would dig around and find as many of those announcements as exist to help construct a master list of the membership.
Isn’t it a little strange that we know who all the new members are, but the roster of ancient members is a closely guarded secret? I’d say it’s secret for good reason. I suspect there are has-been It-Girls and flash-in-the-pans heart-throbs from the 1950s and 60s on that list that would make us recoil if we knew their names.
Somebody — lots of anonymous somebodies — thought The Blind Side was one of the 10 best movies of the year. I’m guessing that not many cinematographers thought so.
Re:Nic
One can break down how the whole voting system works. You may be right and the whole race may narrow down to those two. But time and time again, with vey few excepts, one is not nominated by the performance alone. If you break it down further, one also have to consider the “demographics” of the voting bodies for each category. There are a thousand odd actors in the branch. The vast majority of them are not young. That demographic is different than most critics and especially the posters here. That can help explain why some films/actors triumph over some critical darlings. To some it may seem like a shock while to others it’s no surprise. If one is to predict the Oscars, I think it is important to take that into consideration as well.
There are a thousand odd actors in the branch. The vast majority of them are not young. That demographic is different than most critics and especially the posters here.
I grumble about this annually and usually wait to spark later in the season when tempers are more combustible — but bebe gives me an opportunity to get it out of my system early this year.
It’s my belief that most of the worst mistakes the Academy has made over the years can be blamed on the actors branch. Never makes any sense to me that actors comprise nearly 20% of the Academy while directors represent only 5%. yeesh, I hesitate to say the inmates are running the asylum, but … I didn’t hesitate very long, did I?
Cinematographers, a mere 3%. Perhaps I wouldn’t suggest that cinematographers are necessarily more artistically sophisticated and discerning than actors. On the other hand, yes I would.
There were 27 actors invited to join the Academy last year. Only 8 new directors (Gregg Araki, Susanne Bier, Neil Burger, Lisa Cholodenko, Debra Granik, Tom Hooper, Yojiro Takita). As much as I love new inductee Mila Kunis and sort of sometimes can tolerate Russell Brand, I’ll bet I’d rather own duplicates of Neil Burger’s DVD collection than the collection at Beyonce’s house.
Was that explanation too oblique? Sure, I know there are 1000 actors in Hollywood for every director. 1000 times as many unemployed actors.
I don’t know how long ago the AMPAS began announcing the list of new invitees each year, but I wish some uber-geek would dig around and find as many of those announcements as exist to help construct a master list of the membership.
Isn’t it a little strange that we know who all the new members are, but the roster of ancient members is a closely guarded secret? I’d say it’s secret for good reason. I suspect there are has-been It-Girls and flash-in-the-pans heart-throbs from the 1950s and 60s on that list that would make us recoil if we knew their names.
Somebody — lots of anonymous somebodies — thought The Blind Side was one of the 10 best movies of the year. I’m guessing that not many cinematographers thought so.
The first thing we all have to remember is that directors nominate directors, and so on and so on. Working in the theater for a long time people in their specific fields recognize accomplishment. There will be those who might object to Fassbender’s performance because they just can’t “swallow” the premise of the film. But if you sit down with a group of like people, say a bunch of actors and you begin talking about performances you’ve seen people do point out what they believe to be good. I don’t see how based on all the information that’s out there that Fassbender can’t get a nomination. If Di Caprio’s performance is good he’ll get his next nomination and that for me translates into Fassbender/Di Caprio. I don’t buy the theory that just because Shame is outside of the box or that because there is full frontal nudity that those factors will play into it. After watching Brad Pitt this morning with Matt Lauer Brad needs to really stop talking about Jennifer Anniston. There was a comment this morning that I’m sure he didn’t mean the way it sounded but boy if the rags were paying attention it sure would make a damn good headline. If the rags do grab it along with some of the other things he said he might as well hold a gun to his foot and pull the trigger. Is that a valid reason for him not to be a contender? Absolutely not but it could be a factor.
I have to agree that the concept that Streep needs to pull some kind of Sophie’s Choice out of her back pocket to win another Oscar is absurd. She played Sophie and won for Sophie it’s a done deal. It’s not my favorite Streep performance anyway. I prefer Ironweed. I still think that the jury is so out there on this category but if someone was going to force my hand and Viola Davis is nominated in the Best Actress category then it’s a Davis/???? whomever. I still have my doubts about Williams in My Week with Marilyn and that could be because I remember Marilyn Monroe and I just don’t think that Williams has what it takes to pull it off. If she does I’ll eat my words. I didn’t think she was all that wonderful in Blue Valentine and honestly that’s a film I’ll never watch again and pretty much because of her performance.
As things stand now I think Supporting goes to Plummer and Otavia Spencer. I don’t see how Spencer can loose at this point even if Redgrave is nominated.
I don’t have a great feeling about the Best Picture race. Nothing is really screaming to me. Good stuff but I don’t see a “The Hurt Locker” buzz or “No Country for Old Men” buzz or even an “Inglorious Bastards” buzz. I think the BP has yet to be released. I still think Midnight will end up in the count. Don’t think it will win but I think it’ll end up there where I think that Tree of Life has probably missed the bus.
Ideal BD race in my opinion would be McQueen and Hazanaicus. That would be fun. I have seen a clip of Hugo and if the clip is any kind of tease and really represents the whole movie Hugo could be the sleeper right now. I wouldn’t count Scorcese out just like I wouldn’t count Polanski out. And I can’t wait to see War Horse. It’s Speilburg afterall and even if it doesn’t live up to the hype it’s Speilburg. I do want too see J Edgar. Funny I have almost all of Eastwood’s last nominees on DVD except for Hereafter. I have seen Hereafter a couple times actually saw it On Demand before it hit HBO I was kind of disappointed. It didn’t measure up too his previous work in my opinion.
The first thing we all have to remember is that directors nominate directors, and so on and so on. Working in the theater for a long time people in their specific fields recognize accomplishment. There will be those who might object to Fassbender’s performance because they just can’t “swallow” the premise of the film. But if you sit down with a group of like people, say a bunch of actors and you begin talking about performances you’ve seen people do point out what they believe to be good. I don’t see how based on all the information that’s out there that Fassbender can’t get a nomination. If Di Caprio’s performance is good he’ll get his next nomination and that for me translates into Fassbender/Di Caprio. I don’t buy the theory that just because Shame is outside of the box or that because there is full frontal nudity that those factors will play into it. After watching Brad Pitt this morning with Matt Lauer Brad needs to really stop talking about Jennifer Anniston. There was a comment this morning that I’m sure he didn’t mean the way it sounded but boy if the rags were paying attention it sure would make a damn good headline. If the rags do grab it along with some of the other things he said he might as well hold a gun to his foot and pull the trigger. Is that a valid reason for him not to be a contender? Absolutely not but it could be a factor.
I have to agree that the concept that Streep needs to pull some kind of Sophie’s Choice out of her back pocket to win another Oscar is absurd. She played Sophie and won for Sophie it’s a done deal. It’s not my favorite Streep performance anyway. I prefer Ironweed. I still think that the jury is so out there on this category but if someone was going to force my hand and Viola Davis is nominated in the Best Actress category then it’s a Davis/???? whomever. I still have my doubts about Williams in My Week with Marilyn and that could be because I remember Marilyn Monroe and I just don’t think that Williams has what it takes to pull it off. If she does I’ll eat my words. I didn’t think she was all that wonderful in Blue Valentine and honestly that’s a film I’ll never watch again and pretty much because of her performance.
As things stand now I think Supporting goes to Plummer and Otavia Spencer. I don’t see how Spencer can loose at this point even if Redgrave is nominated.
I don’t have a great feeling about the Best Picture race. Nothing is really screaming to me. Good stuff but I don’t see a “The Hurt Locker” buzz or “No Country for Old Men” buzz or even an “Inglorious Bastards” buzz. I think the BP has yet to be released. I still think Midnight will end up in the count. Don’t think it will win but I think it’ll end up there where I think that Tree of Life has probably missed the bus.
Ideal BD race in my opinion would be McQueen and Hazanaicus. That would be fun. I have seen a clip of Hugo and if the clip is any kind of tease and really represents the whole movie Hugo could be the sleeper right now. I wouldn’t count Scorcese out just like I wouldn’t count Polanski out. And I can’t wait to see War Horse. It’s Speilburg afterall and even if it doesn’t live up to the hype it’s Speilburg. I do want too see J Edgar. Funny I have almost all of Eastwood’s last nominees on DVD except for Hereafter. I have seen Hereafter a couple times actually saw it On Demand before it hit HBO I was kind of disappointed. It didn’t measure up too his previous work in my opinion.
Perhaps Meryl’s Kennedy Center Honors medal this December weighs more in value than a 3rd Oscar?
Perhaps Meryl’s Kennedy Center Honors medal this December weighs more in value than a 3rd Oscar?
Meryl will win her third Oscar but an honorary one.There will always be actresses nominated that never won before and members of the Academy (over 5000 of them) will say:well, she won twice and all those nominations are an honor too, so let’s go with someone else.Don’t forget members of Academy are people from the industry, they all know each other and they don’t vote for best performance, the vote for their friends,for those whose previous work they respect,for those they worked with … And that’s the way it’s always been.Only few people in the history of Oscars have won for particular work,most of them won for millions of other reasons.It’s the same with every other award.I think that’s normal cause we are all humans not machines. And art can not be measured.
Meryl will win her third Oscar but an honorary one.There will always be actresses nominated that never won before and members of the Academy (over 5000 of them) will say:well, she won twice and all those nominations are an honor too, so let’s go with someone else.Don’t forget members of Academy are people from the industry, they all know each other and they don’t vote for best performance, the vote for their friends,for those whose previous work they respect,for those they worked with … And that’s the way it’s always been.Only few people in the history of Oscars have won for particular work,most of them won for millions of other reasons.It’s the same with every other award.I think that’s normal cause we are all humans not machines. And art can not be measured.
As far as I know, Shame will be released next year, before the Oscars, I think. I read that somewhere., but I don’t remember where… IMDB, I suppose.
Michael Fassbender is better than Clooney, Goslyng, DiCaprio… (in my opinion, of course). He deserves the Oscar, after having been ignored for Hunger and IB. If it is not for Shame, what about Jane Eyre, ADM or even X-men? I know the last one is almost impossible, but the film was excelent, and Michael was impressive.
As far as I know, Shame will be released next year, before the Oscars, I think. I read that somewhere., but I don’t remember where… IMDB, I suppose.
Michael Fassbender is better than Clooney, Goslyng, DiCaprio… (in my opinion, of course). He deserves the Oscar, after having been ignored for Hunger and IB. If it is not for Shame, what about Jane Eyre, ADM or even X-men? I know the last one is almost impossible, but the film was excelent, and Michael was impressive.
Having seen most of the “Oscar” buzzed films, I really don’t think Glenn Close will be nominated. If she does end up getting nominated, it won’t be because of her bland performance but rather because of who she is, and with everyone howling at how underrated she is, and that she has never won an Oscar, those might come to her favor, and thus get her nominated.
As for the Actors, I really don’t see Fassbender getting nominated here, sorry. I’m not being the boring predictor who goes oh-so traditional, but it IS the Oscars we are talking about, and Shame will likely stray away some viewers. If I were to predict the actors this year, I really think these will be our Top 5: Clooney (who will win — no joke, it’s his best performance, and one of the very best performances I have ever seen), Harrelson (he’s the only one I can see upsetting), Pitt, Oldman, Hardy. Outside shots go to Dujardin (he was really good, and while I can see how the Academy will embrace this film, I don’t see it dominating anywhere), DiCaprio (Eastwood’s been very Miss these days, and the trailer isn’t oh-so spectacular either), Plummer (great performance, but I doubt it’ll have many people watching; besides he’s in for Supporting Actor), and Craig (nobody’s seen TGWTDT, but I have a hunch it could be a winner, and if so: Craig might very well be in).
Call me delusional, but I really can’t see Fassbender getting nominated, nor do I think Close’s chances are as strong as we think they are (again, she was nothing more than ordinary in her role)…
Having seen most of the “Oscar” buzzed films, I really don’t think Glenn Close will be nominated. If she does end up getting nominated, it won’t be because of her bland performance but rather because of who she is, and with everyone howling at how underrated she is, and that she has never won an Oscar, those might come to her favor, and thus get her nominated.
As for the Actors, I really don’t see Fassbender getting nominated here, sorry. I’m not being the boring predictor who goes oh-so traditional, but it IS the Oscars we are talking about, and Shame will likely stray away some viewers. If I were to predict the actors this year, I really think these will be our Top 5: Clooney (who will win — no joke, it’s his best performance, and one of the very best performances I have ever seen), Harrelson (he’s the only one I can see upsetting), Pitt, Oldman, Hardy. Outside shots go to Dujardin (he was really good, and while I can see how the Academy will embrace this film, I don’t see it dominating anywhere), DiCaprio (Eastwood’s been very Miss these days, and the trailer isn’t oh-so spectacular either), Plummer (great performance, but I doubt it’ll have many people watching; besides he’s in for Supporting Actor), and Craig (nobody’s seen TGWTDT, but I have a hunch it could be a winner, and if so: Craig might very well be in).
Call me delusional, but I really can’t see Fassbender getting nominated, nor do I think Close’s chances are as strong as we think they are (again, she was nothing more than ordinary in her role)…
@Billyboy Ok. So where are Meryl’s ads. I haven’t seen them. Where is the evidence of this hubris? Anyone who starts campaigning ONCE there name is out there isn’t doing anything I would consider hubris. And somehow Streep going for a third Oscar would be, according to you, because it’s her third. I don’t understand the logic. It’s like if she started campaigning tomorrow it would be cocky, whereas someone going for their first, like Michelle Williams, would be perfectly okay. You vie for an Oscar by doing good work. Campaigning is something else. Hubris would have to be about an obnoxious campaign. But apparently if Meryl Streep campaigned for her current film that would be hubris, when it wouldn’t be for everyone else doing the exact same thing. Because she’s won twice already. What was she supposed to do? Stop performing after her second Oscar?
@Billyboy Ok. So where are Meryl’s ads. I haven’t seen them. Where is the evidence of this hubris? Anyone who starts campaigning ONCE there name is out there isn’t doing anything I would consider hubris. And somehow Streep going for a third Oscar would be, according to you, because it’s her third. I don’t understand the logic. It’s like if she started campaigning tomorrow it would be cocky, whereas someone going for their first, like Michelle Williams, would be perfectly okay. You vie for an Oscar by doing good work. Campaigning is something else. Hubris would have to be about an obnoxious campaign. But apparently if Meryl Streep campaigned for her current film that would be hubris, when it wouldn’t be for everyone else doing the exact same thing. Because she’s won twice already. What was she supposed to do? Stop performing after her second Oscar?
Actually, Sasha, many are predicting Fassbender to be a strong contender. Only the people who make boring predictable picks (who usually wind up wrong anyway, but then pretend they had it right all along) year in and year out are not counting him in.
Actually, Sasha, many are predicting Fassbender to be a strong contender. Only the people who make boring predictable picks (who usually wind up wrong anyway, but then pretend they had it right all along) year in and year out are not counting him in.
“why has the best actor category become so competitive all of a sudden. It was all DiCaprio leading up to September buy now DiCaprio seems to fallen to 4th or 5th in most prediction polls.”
Did you see the trailer? He looks terrible in it
“why has the best actor category become so competitive all of a sudden. It was all DiCaprio leading up to September buy now DiCaprio seems to fallen to 4th or 5th in most prediction polls.”
Did you see the trailer? He looks terrible in it
@Antoinette. You wrote “Vying for an Oscar can’t be hubris because it’s not something you actually do.” People don’t vie for Oscars? Then how do you call the FYC ads, the publicists hired by actors and studios, the screeners they send to Academy members? That’s not vying? Thinking that all it takes to get an Oscar is to have a good performance and then sit and wait at your Beverly Hills pool for glory, is very naive. I guess that only works for Mo’nique.
@Antoinette. You wrote “Vying for an Oscar can’t be hubris because it’s not something you actually do.” People don’t vie for Oscars? Then how do you call the FYC ads, the publicists hired by actors and studios, the screeners they send to Academy members? That’s not vying? Thinking that all it takes to get an Oscar is to have a good performance and then sit and wait at your Beverly Hills pool for glory, is very naive. I guess that only works for Mo’nique.
why has the best actor category become so competitive all of a sudden. It was all DiCaprio leading up to September buy now DiCaprio seems to fallen to 4th or 5th in most prediction polls.
why has the best actor category become so competitive all of a sudden. It was all DiCaprio leading up to September buy now DiCaprio seems to fallen to 4th or 5th in most prediction polls.
Me thinks the stars are aligning for a Streep win this year.
Me thinks the stars are aligning for a Streep win this year.
@Billyboy Naive? What are you talking about? Naive about what? lol Are we even having the same conversation? Strange things are afoot at Awards Daily. O_o
What stage is Shame at? Was it just in festivals? Or was it released already? I only read about it here.
I keep seeing this Dolphin Tale commercial and it worries me. I worry about anything uplifting right now. Especially with this #1 votes system. We could be in for a nightmare scenario. Your Best Picture nominees could be Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Bridesmaids, The Help, Rio and Super 8
What I’m confused about on Movieline’s charts is Christopher Plummer. He’s calling it for him. Seriously. Like it’s a done deal, comparing it with Bale and Ledger’s wins. Is it that dominate of a role?
@Billyboy Naive? What are you talking about? Naive about what? lol Are we even having the same conversation? Strange things are afoot at Awards Daily. O_o
What stage is Shame at? Was it just in festivals? Or was it released already? I only read about it here.
I keep seeing this Dolphin Tale commercial and it worries me. I worry about anything uplifting right now. Especially with this #1 votes system. We could be in for a nightmare scenario. Your Best Picture nominees could be Rise of the Planet of the Apes, Bridesmaids, The Help, Rio and Super 8
What I’m confused about on Movieline’s charts is Christopher Plummer. He’s calling it for him. Seriously. Like it’s a done deal, comparing it with Bale and Ledger’s wins. Is it that dominate of a role?
Does Shame even have a release date yet? Don’t get me wrong, I think Fassbender is awesome and a future Oscar winner but it might help to actually release the movie at some point. Here’s how i see things going down this year:
Best Picture: The Descendants vs The Artist
War Horse and Moneyball could both potentially win also but I think Spielberg has been recognized enough in some people’s eyes and Moneyball needs to be a hit or could suffer the same fate as Warrior.
Best Director: Alexander Payne
I think (at this particular moment a least) this is the safest pick. I just don’t see Dragon Tattoo being that big of a factor, The Artist will be recognized elsewhere and Spielberg and Eastwood both have 2 Oscars already.
Best Actor: Oldman vs Dujardin vs Pitt (Moneyball)
I don’t see Clooney winning again yet, and if Shame does get released this year it will probably turn more Academy members off than we think. Pit will get nommed for Moneyball because I have seen no indication that Tree of Life has any buzz left. I am gonna pick Dujardin in The Artist for the upset though trust me there definitely is a such thing as a lifetime achievement and it COULD carry Oldman over the top.
Best Actress: Close vs Davis
Sorry Meryl fans, she’s not winning a 3rd before Glenn Close wins her first. I think Close will win because I think The Help is going to upset in the Adapted Screenplay Category. The classic Little Miss Sunshine/Juno/Pulp Fiction consolation prize.
Best Supporting Actor: Plummer vs Brooks
Nick Nolte would have been a factor here had Warrior not flamed out so dramatcally at the Box Office. I am picking Plummer although I fear the movie is too small to be remembered despite being one of the best of the year. On a side note, does anyone know if Daniel Craig is going lead or supporting for Dragon Tattoo?
Best Supporting Actress: Spencer vs Woodley
The scene stealer vs the newbie, I am going with Octavia Spencer.
Does Shame even have a release date yet? Don’t get me wrong, I think Fassbender is awesome and a future Oscar winner but it might help to actually release the movie at some point. Here’s how i see things going down this year:
Best Picture: The Descendants vs The Artist
War Horse and Moneyball could both potentially win also but I think Spielberg has been recognized enough in some people’s eyes and Moneyball needs to be a hit or could suffer the same fate as Warrior.
Best Director: Alexander Payne
I think (at this particular moment a least) this is the safest pick. I just don’t see Dragon Tattoo being that big of a factor, The Artist will be recognized elsewhere and Spielberg and Eastwood both have 2 Oscars already.
Best Actor: Oldman vs Dujardin vs Pitt (Moneyball)
I don’t see Clooney winning again yet, and if Shame does get released this year it will probably turn more Academy members off than we think. Pit will get nommed for Moneyball because I have seen no indication that Tree of Life has any buzz left. I am gonna pick Dujardin in The Artist for the upset though trust me there definitely is a such thing as a lifetime achievement and it COULD carry Oldman over the top.
Best Actress: Close vs Davis
Sorry Meryl fans, she’s not winning a 3rd before Glenn Close wins her first. I think Close will win because I think The Help is going to upset in the Adapted Screenplay Category. The classic Little Miss Sunshine/Juno/Pulp Fiction consolation prize.
Best Supporting Actor: Plummer vs Brooks
Nick Nolte would have been a factor here had Warrior not flamed out so dramatcally at the Box Office. I am picking Plummer although I fear the movie is too small to be remembered despite being one of the best of the year. On a side note, does anyone know if Daniel Craig is going lead or supporting for Dragon Tattoo?
Best Supporting Actress: Spencer vs Woodley
The scene stealer vs the newbie, I am going with Octavia Spencer.
I saw a screening for shame.Calling Fassbender a lock for a nod is premature. As much as I love the actor’s, and I think the performance is very good, the film (and to a lesser extend the performances) is not a film that the Academy will typically embrace. And while the film itself is very good it has its problems. I think some people may be way too optimistic on his chances on a nomination. Remember this is the academy that awarded Crash over BBM; The King’s Speech over its competitor. And that is just in the last few years.
The last similar nomination in the best actor field (I don’t think it’s fair to compare this field to any other acting categories or vice versa given its history) in recent memories was probably Ryan Gosling (then a relatively unknown I would say among the older Academy members) for Half Nelson, but the film was much more accessible. The following year he got a GG/SAG/BFCA nom for playing a guy who is in love with a sex doll and he was snubbed by the Academy. Granted he did not receive any critic prizes (which Fassbender may end up doing) the Best actor field was weak that year. Gosling’s film Lars I would say is much more accessible than Shame, for the Academy members in general.
Fassbender’s performance is shame one of the best I’ve seen this year. I personally do hope he gets nominated. I haven’t seen many others yet (Clooney, Pitt) but the field is very strong it seems. I’m not just talking about the performance here. If there’s a good campaign, and given how charismatic the actor is and how some people (ie many people here) have already been championing him like crazy it could happen. But saying that he is a lock or a front runner is a bit premature. But finger crossed.
I saw a screening for shame.Calling Fassbender a lock for a nod is premature. As much as I love the actor’s, and I think the performance is very good, the film (and to a lesser extend the performances) is not a film that the Academy will typically embrace. And while the film itself is very good it has its problems. I think some people may be way too optimistic on his chances on a nomination. Remember this is the academy that awarded Crash over BBM; The King’s Speech over its competitor. And that is just in the last few years.
The last similar nomination in the best actor field (I don’t think it’s fair to compare this field to any other acting categories or vice versa given its history) in recent memories was probably Ryan Gosling (then a relatively unknown I would say among the older Academy members) for Half Nelson, but the film was much more accessible. The following year he got a GG/SAG/BFCA nom for playing a guy who is in love with a sex doll and he was snubbed by the Academy. Granted he did not receive any critic prizes (which Fassbender may end up doing) the Best actor field was weak that year. Gosling’s film Lars I would say is much more accessible than Shame, for the Academy members in general.
Fassbender’s performance is shame one of the best I’ve seen this year. I personally do hope he gets nominated. I haven’t seen many others yet (Clooney, Pitt) but the field is very strong it seems. I’m not just talking about the performance here. If there’s a good campaign, and given how charismatic the actor is and how some people (ie many people here) have already been championing him like crazy it could happen. But saying that he is a lock or a front runner is a bit premature. But finger crossed.
Early reviews of a screening of an exclusive 10 min of “Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” call it a boring, pointless/unnecessary remake
wisconsinkel — early “reviews” of 10 minutes? Your comment makes no sense. Would you like to have a chance to substantiate this strange remark with a link, anyone’s name, an actual quote?
Looks like Sony showed 8 minutes of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo before a screening of Moneyball tonight. This must be the same 8 minutes most people were raving about over the weekend when it was seen before a screening of Strawdogs.
Searching Twitter for “Dragon Tattoo” tonight turns up around a dozen tweets so far from people who saw these 8 minutes with their own eyes. I can’t find any negative reaction at all.
winsconsinkel, do you have another source — any actual quotes?
Early reviews of a screening of an exclusive 10 min of “Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” call it a boring, pointless/unnecessary remake
wisconsinkel — early “reviews” of 10 minutes? Your comment makes no sense. Would you like to have a chance to substantiate this strange remark with a link, anyone’s name, an actual quote?
Looks like Sony showed 8 minutes of The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo before a screening of Moneyball tonight. This must be the same 8 minutes most people were raving about over the weekend when it was seen before a screening of Strawdogs.
Searching Twitter for “Dragon Tattoo” tonight turns up around a dozen tweets so far from people who saw these 8 minutes with their own eyes. I can’t find any negative reaction at all.
winsconsinkel, do you have another source — any actual quotes?
“Vying for an Oscar can’t be hubris because it’s not something you actually do. She does her job then if she’s good enough people start buzzing about it and then maybe she might get nominated and win.”
Oh. Who’s being naive, Kay
“Vying for an Oscar can’t be hubris because it’s not something you actually do. She does her job then if she’s good enough people start buzzing about it and then maybe she might get nominated and win.”
Oh. Who’s being naive, Kay
Yes, the Academy essentially does award people for being “due,” as a sort of lifetime achievement award, but that is not the intention of the award. If it were, we wouldn’t only be talking about films from 2011. I know this is not how things ultimately turn out, but in regard to Meryl Streep, if we take into consideration the title of the award being “best performance by an actress in a leading role” for this year’s films, previous performances should not influence decision-making. I just feel it would make the award more credible. The awards show might be less interesting, but at least they’d be keeping it real.
Yes, the Academy essentially does award people for being “due,” as a sort of lifetime achievement award, but that is not the intention of the award. If it were, we wouldn’t only be talking about films from 2011. I know this is not how things ultimately turn out, but in regard to Meryl Streep, if we take into consideration the title of the award being “best performance by an actress in a leading role” for this year’s films, previous performances should not influence decision-making. I just feel it would make the award more credible. The awards show might be less interesting, but at least they’d be keeping it real.
(I just saw a commercial for Drive and it was all fast car driving. Why do they mismarket like that? It’s dishonest and ends up pissing people off who want an action movie.)
Streep vying for a third Oscar is the very definition of hubris.
Put the pipe down, sistah girl. You are the definition of not knowing your definitions. Vying for an Oscar can’t be hubris because it’s not something you actually do. She does her job then if she’s good enough people start buzzing about it and then maybe she might get nominated and win. If she put out a press release saying “I’m going to win another Oscar because I’m Meryl Streep. In fact no one else should be nominated. I should get all 5 nominations” Then that would be hubris.
I’m still calling Best Actor for Gary Oldman. I think he’s going to be the “it’s his year” nominee, like Natalie last year. Pitt might have been but now I’m thinking he might cancel himself out. And they ain’t giving Clooney another one.
(to be continued…)
(I just saw a commercial for Drive and it was all fast car driving. Why do they mismarket like that? It’s dishonest and ends up pissing people off who want an action movie.)
Streep vying for a third Oscar is the very definition of hubris.
Put the pipe down, sistah girl. You are the definition of not knowing your definitions. Vying for an Oscar can’t be hubris because it’s not something you actually do. She does her job then if she’s good enough people start buzzing about it and then maybe she might get nominated and win. If she put out a press release saying “I’m going to win another Oscar because I’m Meryl Streep. In fact no one else should be nominated. I should get all 5 nominations” Then that would be hubris.
I’m still calling Best Actor for Gary Oldman. I think he’s going to be the “it’s his year” nominee, like Natalie last year. Pitt might have been but now I’m thinking he might cancel himself out. And they ain’t giving Clooney another one.
(to be continued…)
Right Jeff, because every year -without a fault- they give the Oscar to the best performance of the year. Careers don’t matter.
It’s not a lifetime achievement award (Scorsese?), but neither a purist award for the best performance of the year.
@Julian.Agreed.Swinton not getting recognition for Julia and Iam Love was criminal. But at least Swinton has earned her Oscar. Williams is still young.
Right Jeff, because every year -without a fault- they give the Oscar to the best performance of the year. Careers don’t matter.
It’s not a lifetime achievement award (Scorsese?), but neither a purist award for the best performance of the year.
@Julian.Agreed.Swinton not getting recognition for Julia and Iam Love was criminal. But at least Swinton has earned her Oscar. Williams is still young.
Ugh, @ billyboy,
Reminder that the Oscar is not a lifetime achievement award.
Ugh, @ billyboy,
Reminder that the Oscar is not a lifetime achievement award.
that was actually an unintended typo, Billyboy (sorry about that)
that was actually an unintended typo, Billyboy (sorry about that)
Rather, bullyboy, either of them vying for an Oscar when Michelle Williams and Tilda Swinton is in line, is ridiculous as well…;)
Rather, bullyboy, either of them vying for an Oscar when Michelle Williams and Tilda Swinton is in line, is ridiculous as well…;)
Why do people want Streep to win a THIRD Oscar? Does she need it? People will respect her more cause of that? I don’t think so. She has earned (deservedly so) a spot in film history as one of its finest performers.
Streep vying for a third Oscar is the very definition of hubris. Glenn Close at 64 with not a single Oscar is the definition of ridiculous.
Why do people want Streep to win a THIRD Oscar? Does she need it? People will respect her more cause of that? I don’t think so. She has earned (deservedly so) a spot in film history as one of its finest performers.
Streep vying for a third Oscar is the very definition of hubris. Glenn Close at 64 with not a single Oscar is the definition of ridiculous.
As one of those Meryl Streep fans (although I hope an objective one), I tend to agree that she will have to have an OUTSTANDING performance to actually win another Oscar. That, or a few more years. I don’t feel it should be that way, of course. If the Academy compares Meryl’s performance as Maggie Thatcher to the rest of the field and deem it better than the other four nominees (assuming she’s nominated (duh)), that should be enough. This continuous comparison of Meryl Streep to Meryl Streep is ridiculous. She doesn’t need to outshine Sophie’s Choice. It’s possible no one ever will. She need only outshine Glenn, Viola, Tilda, Michelle, Keira, Rooney, and Elizabeth.
As one of those Meryl Streep fans (although I hope an objective one), I tend to agree that she will have to have an OUTSTANDING performance to actually win another Oscar. That, or a few more years. I don’t feel it should be that way, of course. If the Academy compares Meryl’s performance as Maggie Thatcher to the rest of the field and deem it better than the other four nominees (assuming she’s nominated (duh)), that should be enough. This continuous comparison of Meryl Streep to Meryl Streep is ridiculous. She doesn’t need to outshine Sophie’s Choice. It’s possible no one ever will. She need only outshine Glenn, Viola, Tilda, Michelle, Keira, Rooney, and Elizabeth.
I see The Artist, Moneyball and the Descendants on the rise; struggling to maintain – Midnight, The Help and Tree of Life (unfortunately). Gambling on a successful release (and it will need to be positively orgasmic if it’s really late in the year) War Horse (maybe?), Hoover (unlikely) and Dragon Tattoo (would not surprise me).
Oh – and Fassbender – “outside the box”? – I think he’ll be very much inside by the time this is over (not unlike his character)(sorry)
I see The Artist, Moneyball and the Descendants on the rise; struggling to maintain – Midnight, The Help and Tree of Life (unfortunately). Gambling on a successful release (and it will need to be positively orgasmic if it’s really late in the year) War Horse (maybe?), Hoover (unlikely) and Dragon Tattoo (would not surprise me).
Oh – and Fassbender – “outside the box”? – I think he’ll be very much inside by the time this is over (not unlike his character)(sorry)
If Fassbender’s performance is that good, the academy needs to suck it up and get over the NC-17 rating.
If Fassbender’s performance is that good, the academy needs to suck it up and get over the NC-17 rating.
Fassbender will be nominated. The industry loves him too much right now to snub him. He won’t win, though.
Fassbender will be nominated. The industry loves him too much right now to snub him. He won’t win, though.