Believe it or not, these awards are coming in two weeks. We’re starting our contest early! In our latest podcast, Craig, Ryan and I do a little spitballing as to how these things will turn out. We hover around the same titles, Argo, Lincoln, The Master, Django Unchained, Silver Linings, Les Miz, etc. We said our predictions but they will likely change as the weeks wear on. We will be doing more thorough previews of each of these critics groups. But, New York Film critics will announce first, on December 3, 2012. Two days later, the National Board of Review, and then on December 7, 2012, the Los Angeles Film Critics.
To that end, we are kickstarting the first contest of the year right now. Click the jump to enter! There will be prizes!
I’ve seen south of fuck all this year so far, due to my location. But I will see everything in due course…Karate Kid is opening here next week (that Ralph Macchio is going places!)
I have no idea about NY and LA, but my hunch and hot tip is to switch your predictions. I would say Life of Pi for NY anc Lincoln or The Master for LA. The NBR could do anything. No Eastwood this year, but don’t count out Trouble With the Curve. The big films for them I think of The Master, Beasts, Amour and Moonrise Kingdom.
My top picks, let’s go 11
Amour
Holy Motors
The Hunt
Wish you were Here
Moonrise Kingdom
The Master
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Grey
Cabin in the Woods
Beyond the Hills
Bernie
My good but not great
The Hunger Games
Argo
The Good, but contains Razzie moments
The Dark Knight Rises
The Avengers
Lawless
I really have no idea this year–all of my guesses are truly random
I think these films should be added to the drop down menus, especially for the runner up choices (remember, Melancholia was runner-up with the NYFC last year):
– The Perks of Being a Wallflower (has very passionate supporters despite lack of universal buzz/support)
– Holy Motors
– Once Upon A Time in Anatolia
– Killing Them Softly
NYFCC will choose “Amour”
Au revoir (Lol)
NYFCC
Picture – The Master
Director – Paul Thomas Anderson
Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress – Emmanuelle Riva
Supporting Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Supporting Actress – Amy Adams
Screenplay – Moonrise Kingdom
LAFCC
Picture – The Master
Director – Ben Affleck
Actor – Joaquin Phoenix
Actress – Marion Cotillard
Supporting Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Supporting Actress – Helen Hunt
Screenplay – Amour
NBR
1 – Argo
2 – The Master
3 – Lincoln
4 – Beasts of the Southern Wild
5 – Silver Linings Playbook
6 – Les Misérables
7 – Amour
8 – Moonrise Kingdom
9 – Zero Dark Thirty
10 – Life of Pi
Wouldn’t it be awkward if one of these groups puts Jennifer Lawrence in the Supporting slot? Reading some of the East Coast reviews this would not surprise me.
God, Arkin and Goodman better not win anything. I love the guys, but the performances are nothing special. Arkin already won(?) for playing a similar character in another solid but (considerably moreso) overrated film 6 or so years ago.
Best picture : Argo (N.Y./NBOF), Lincoln (L.A.)
Best director : Ben Affleck (N.Y./NBOR/L.A.)
Best actor : Joaquin Phoenix (N.Y.), Daniel Day Lewis (L.A.)
Best actress : Marion Cotillard (N.Y./NBOR), Jennifer Lawrence (L.A.)
Best supporting actor : Alan Arkin (N.Y.), John Goodman (L.A./NBOR)
Best supporting actress : Maggie Smith (N.Y./NBOR/L.A.)
Best screenplay : Argo (N.Y./NBOR/L.A.)
This is pointless given that most of us remain clueless regarding Zero Dark Thirty and Django. Of course, my gut says that Oscars will go for Argo/Affleck, Day-Lewis, Lawrence, Hoffman, and Hathaway or Field.
I always admire the National Board of Review. The choices that organization has made in the past have always been exciting to watch.
I still admire their insight when, in 1969, they awarded “They Shoot Horses, Don’t They?” Best Picture – and AMPAS couldn’t even give it a shot at best picture despite nine other nominations.
I’m at a loss to try to second-guess their Best Picture choice this year, however. I hope that they again surprise us.
“Moonrise Kingdom” would be a nice surprise for Best Picture, n’est ce pas?
I always admire the National Board of Review. The choices that organization has made in the past have always been exciting to watch.
Last year the NBR was one of the only groups to recognize Drive as one of the 10 best films of the year.
I can’t see the critics going for Argo as Best Picture. It lacks gravitas and takes few risks. A rather simple pot-boiler would be very unlike the major critic organisations recent choices.
Underestimate Argo at your peril.
Oh, and I’m 98% sure that the National Board Of Review will choose Lincoln as their film of the year.
NYFCC:
Best Film – Amour
Best Director – Paul Thomas Anderson
Best Actor – Joaquin Phoenix
Best Actress – Emmanuelle Riva
Best Supporting Actor – Phillip Seymour Hoffman
Best Supporting Actress – Sally Field
Best Screenplay – Lincoln
LAFCC:
Best Film – Argo
Best Director – Ben Affleck
Best Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Best Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
Best Supporting Actor – Alan Arkin
Best Supporting Actress – Helen Hunt
Best Screenplay – Argo
And I’d say Joaquin Phoenix and Emmanuelle Riva have a better shot the acting awards.
Predictions for all three:
Picture– Argo
Director– Ben Affleck
Actor– Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress– Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor– Leonardo Dicaprio
Supporting Actress– Anne Hathaway
Screeplay– The Master
Daniel Day Lewis and Jennifer Lawrence are definitely winning best actor and actress. I thunk Argo will win best picture.
Great interview with Anthony Hopkins from Huffpost. Keen insight on the pressures of campaigning on talent, his own no-nonsense attitude…and why he decided not to go to NYC ahead of the New York FIlm Critics Circle Awards. He also discusses his own feelings toward method acting and indirectly Lincoln
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/19/anthony-hopkins-hitchcock-oscars_n_2156179.html
NYFCC
Picture – Lincoln
Director – Ben Affleck
Actor – Daniel Day-Lewis
Actress – Jennifer Lawrence
Supporting Actor – Tommy Lee Jones
Supporting Actress – Helen Hunt
Screeplay – Argo
LAFCA
Picture – Argo
Director – Ben Affleck
Actor – Joaquin Phoenix
Actress – Marion Cotillard
Supporting Actor – Alan Arkin
Supporting Actress – Helen Hunt
Screenplay – Argo