434 responses

  1. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    I thought you wrote an entire article explaining why you were now predicting “American Hustle” to win the Oscar for Best Picture. Is it waiting to be notarized?

  2. Simone
    January 19, 2014

    12 Years a Slave is going to win this!

  3. Andrea
    January 19, 2014

    PGAs aren’t televised, right?

  4. curtis
    January 19, 2014

    12 years a slave. I expect this to be like the best pic winner at globs and BFCA.

  5. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Right. Not televised.

  6. Silvana
    January 19, 2014

    12 Years a Slave has to win because it is the best, point.

  7. Corvo
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity is clearly the best movie of the year.

  8. KB
    January 19, 2014

    GO GRAVITY!

  9. PaulinJapan
    January 19, 2014

    I believe another twist in the race will occur tonight. Gravity takes the PGA and then DGA next week. Who’ll be predicting a split then?

  10. Hawkeye
    January 19, 2014

    This is 12 Years a Slave’s to lose. Interesting how Gold Derby is all over the place with their predictions though:

    5 – 12 Years a Slave
    4 – Gravity
    2 – American Hustle

    If anything other than 12 Years takes it, it would be an upset along the lines of King’s Speech beating Social Network. That being said, I hope that Gravity can pull off such an upset because it truly deserves it.

  11. RIOBALDO
    January 19, 2014

    GRAVITY should be the winner here,it was a successful money machine all over the world and the critics loved it, but I have to recognize that even if it prevails over 12 Years a Slave, that one its the one who eventually will win the Oscar.

  12. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Corvo – Good one! But seriously, folks…

    I would be delighted with “12 Years a Slave” or “American Hustle” – 2 films that will be watched and revered for many years to come.

  13. JPNS Viewer
    January 19, 2014

    Never meant to crash your party. But . . . GO AMERICAN HUSTLE!!!

    If there’s a stream of sort, informal or not, provided that rights to privacy — in case there’s no official broadcast — are not violated, please share. Thank you in advance.

    I’ve got a good feeling Hustle shall prevail. We’ll see.

  14. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    I Predict: 12 YEARS A SLAVE
    Stunner: GRAVITY

  15. JPNS Viewer
    January 19, 2014

    [Random]

    By the way, I’m starting to feel the heat and thus worried for my lovely and talented JLaw come the Oscar night/morning.
    I meant, Lupita Nyong’o’s acceptance speech at SAG, and Critics Choice, was truly heartfelt and lovely. Pleasant personality, as well.

  16. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Also: Whatever wins PGA tonight will also win DGA. You heard it here first.

  17. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    I would love to see an upset with either Gravity or The Wolf of Wall Street.

    I’m predicting American Hustle.

  18. Buford T Justice
    January 19, 2014

    I really want 12 YAS to win this , it would be a beautiful dream ; however I expect AMERICAN HUSTLE to win and it will be CHECKMATE
    A H is custom made to appeal to those Academy voters , not too heavy , not too light with about the right balance of humor and sex ; a movie that is a crowd pleaser with disco /light rock from the 1970′s that will bring back fond memories of youth for those 60-ish Academy voters …they are sure to like it
    For me ,the inclusion of Christian Bale into the most competitive category of all is really the smoking gun and indicative of the love for AH; I wish it wasn’t so but it is

  19. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    12 Years a Slave

  20. chasgoose
    January 19, 2014

    @ Hawkeye Not really. From an artistic/cinematic standpoint 12 Years a Slave is nowhere near as good as The Social Network. It’s a good movie to be sure, but it has its flaws (like all Steve McQueen films do) and its not like Gravity or even American Hustle are bad movies (even AH is better than Kings Speech). Also its not like 12 Years a Slave is a clear frontrunner so if American Hustle or Gravity win it wouldn’t be surprising. American Hustle is the fun easygoing movie that’s less challenging, but also less flawed. Gravity made a gazillion dollars, which sometimes helps and its a testament to the power of old school studio producing that helped bring it to life.

  21. Edkargir@aol.com
    January 19, 2014

    12 Years a Slave is the best film of 2013 in my opinion so I hope the pga will agree.

  22. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    When is the DGA? Thanks.

  23. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Go GRAVITY!

    “You need to learn to let go” > “You need to let go”

  24. brian
    January 19, 2014

    I want American Hustle to win, but I’m betting that TYAS wins

  25. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Buford T Justice, I thought Jacki Weaver’s nom last year was also a smoking gun, but no. Bale’s inclusion was certainly interesting.

  26. Henry Zambrano
    January 19, 2014

    Something is telling me that Gravity or 12 Years a Slave will win the PGA. I’m most likely leaning towards the former more than the latter.

    American Hustle was LUCKY to win SAG. I would be stunned if it won PGA. Considering it’s very flawed compared to Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.

    As well, who the f*ck wants David O. Russell to win the DGA? As Sasha has said before: He’s respected, not loved. So I doubt he’ll win anytime soon.

    Gravity: Predicted Winner
    12 Years a Slave: Alternate

  27. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    Good evening everyone:

    I just came from our weekly Psychics United meeting, and when sitting next to my good friend Catherine Chambers, I whispered that the Producers Guild of America were announcing their winning film for Best Picture tonight. Between her bites of off-tasting salad and fresh hummus, she told me that she loved outer space but was happy “Gravity kept her grounded.” She winked and continued a conversation with another man regarding the best suntan lotion to use.

    Anyways, Catherine is VERY intuitive, and sneaky about how she reveals information. She just proclaimed that Gravity will win Best Picture tonight. Congrats to all the fans of the movie.

    BEST PICTURE- PRODUCERS GUILD
    Gravity

  28. JM
    January 19, 2014

    Didn’t you and Scott from Hollywood Reporter predict Lincoln will win the PGA last year?

  29. Hawkeye
    January 19, 2014

    @Chasgoose

    I’m not talking about the quality of the films themselves at all. I’m talking in terms of what’s won the most awards, and by those standards 12 Years a Slave is the clear frontrunner. It’s taken 20+ Best Pictures compared to its next closest competitor (Her, which only received seven that I know of).

  30. dan
    January 19, 2014

    I Hope 12 years wins this. It’s globe and bfca win gives me hope. It is the best reviewed film we have had In Years and I would love to see Pitt on stage with the great cast.

  31. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    “You need to learn to let go” > “You need to let go”
    Yeah, that theme was about as subtle as a freight train.

  32. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Wow. People really didn’t get LLEWYN DAVIS’ ending didn’t they? Christ. Everyone here seen it right?

    Clinton,

    Stop being a bully. You don’t see me attacking your favorites.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 19, 2014

      Wow. People really didn’t get LLEWYN DAVIS’ ending didn’t they? Christ. Everyone here seen it right?

      Let’s give it another couple of weeks for people to catch up before we start to publicly explain our interpretations of the ending, ok? I wouldn’t want to ruin the pleasure of discovery for any of our Awards Daily clan.

  33. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    If you know — does an actor feel more privileged to get the SAG award vs. the oscar?
    Each time I see the SAGS it seems the actors are super happy and appreciate the SAG vs. the Oscar.
    Maybe by the time the Oscar rolls around, it doesn’t matter?

  34. Antoinette
    January 19, 2014

    Well, I’m rooting for THE WOLF OF WALL STREET but I have no guesses about what they will choose. I’ll also be fine with 12 YEARS A SLAVE, AMERICAN HUSTLE, or HER. If I thought BLUE JASMINE had a snowball’s chance in hell I’d be rooting for that instead. I have nothing against DALLAS BUYER’S CLUB. It’s a fine film. But if it won, it’d confuse me. I haven’t seen NEBRASKA and have no desire to see SAVING MR. BANKS. Since it’s not nominated for Oscar I can skip it.

  35. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    WHAT exactly do the voting members look for in a movie? Do they look at the backstory – how the movie got made? Who the studio is that produced it? The Director?
    What exactly determines who gets the award.

  36. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    LOL freaking Gail just ruined it for me predicting GRAVITY now I know it’s not going to win :/

  37. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    I just saw 12 Yrs a Slave again — after walking out of Mr. Phillips, which bored me to death. Thought Tom Hanks did a wonderful job, but the story was so slow to get out the barn, and that shaky cam made me dizzy.
    Anyway, Chitewe(?) should win best actor, but I don’t think he wants it. Matthew is campaigning hard for that win as is Leo, but Chitewe impresses me as being the type of actor who’s going along to help the movie, but he could care less if he won or not.

  38. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Bryce, I saw Inside Llewyn Davis, and I understood the ending. I thought it was brilliant. But then again, I thought the whole movie was brilliant.

  39. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    @Bryce: How did I RUIN anything???

    I am a trained psychic, and one of the few that predicted Matthew McConaughey’s Golden Globe victory when everyone else was barking about Chiwetel whats-his-name.

    Catherine is a light colleague of mine, and her suave predictions are never wrong. Do you know she accurately predicted my brother’s divorce two years ago? She had met his horrible ex-wife at a dinner party, and inbetween her sips of a very aged bottle of red- she was able to channel the woman’s inner-ambitions to forge checks from their join account. That alone should show you why she’s right tonight, and Gravity will prevail!

  40. Antoinette
    January 19, 2014

    I saw Ejiofor on Letterman a while back. He might have just campaigned early, Sally.

  41. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    In my opinion, Chiwetel strikes me as the kind of guy who’s just thankful to be nominated. I think he’d rather see the movie win or Steve McQueen win (just a gut feeling).

  42. menyc
    January 19, 2014

    Bryce: Yes another that got and LOVED the Inside Llewyn Davis ending. Actually loved every minute of the film.

  43. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Gail,

    Hahaha I love it. Literally laughing. Hope you and Catherine stick around to predict the Palme D’or and everything else this year.

  44. Antoinette
    January 19, 2014

    I am a trained psychic

    Does that mean you go in the litterbox?

    Do you know she accurately predicted my brother’s divorce two years ago? She had met his horrible ex-wife

    If his ex-wife was horrible then everyone should have predicted it.

    Any Joe Schmo could predict GRAVITY tonight and if it wins, it won’t make them psychic. It’s a good bet.

  45. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Gail, I hope you’re right that Gravity wins tonight. :-)

  46. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Ryan,

    exactly! Mums the word. (silence)

  47. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Al, menyc,

    Fantastic. One of endless reasons AD’s readership is head and shoulders above the rest.

  48. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Aw, thanks Bryce! :-)

    I held on to Inside Llewyn Davis for about a day and a half after seeing it. That’s how good I thought it was. Plus, that cat’s face is forever seared into my brain. (In a good way).

  49. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Sorry Bryce, I’ll be good.

    I think all 4 acting categories are set. McConaughey, Blanchett, Leto and Nyong’o. That last one is dicey, but it seems to have tipped her way.

  50. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Off topic (sort of)

    I may not know which movie is going to win tonight, but I know that the Superbowl is now going to be the 49ers and Broncos.

  51. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Whoops!!! I meant to say the Seahawks and Broncos. D’oh!!

  52. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    Thanks Al & Bryce: kisses from me! I’m all dolled up right now, of course Im a woman in my late 40s- but still look my part. I have on a nice makeup blend and fancy lipstick. And I’m currently on my second glass of Belvedere vodka with sprite. I feel really nice.

    Also – to prove Gravity will win the PGA tonight, just open your windows and look up at the stars. You’ll soon realize that earth is so minuscule compared to the universe, and that voters would be shameful to ignore voting for a movie that depicts the Universe, vs a small little planet.

  53. Luke
    January 19, 2014

    Whatever wins – Hooray for movies!!!

    If they vote for the film that impressed them the most, Gravity will win.

    If they vote for the film they enjoyed the most, American Hustle will win.

    If they vote for the film they feel they HAVE to vote for, 12 Years a Slave will win.

  54. TGB
    January 19, 2014

    All in for 12 Years a Slave!

  55. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Ryan,

    Of course.

  56. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Gail,

    Cheers! :-)

  57. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Al, I know and two teams and I couldn’t care less about. I guess I’ll root Broncos just because of Eric Decker.

  58. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    You know my favorite day of awards season is the Oscar nominations announcement? This is why:

    I wake up at 7am, watch the announcement- then go to the grocery store and get fresh bagels, onion chive cream cheese, orange juice and pastry. I veg out while reading and responding to blogs, and by Noon I’ve passed out. Then I wake up in the evening to watch the Critics Choice Awards, and afterwards relish in my Jewel- Pieces of You Album, listening to good folk music while taking the nominations and winners into my mind.

  59. Jeremy
    January 19, 2014

    FUCK THE 49ERS

    That is all, back to your regularly scheduled waiting for results

  60. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Jeremy, LOL :-)

    I know I know, no sports talk on the movie blog. Sorry. >.<

  61. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    12 Years A Slave, please.

  62. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Yes, Gail, Oscar nomination day is the greatest (5;40 a,m, where I live). And this year we get a month and a half to ruminate on them before Oscar day itself.

  63. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    And nope

  64. Bob Burns
    January 19, 2014

    The new Sherlock is amazing

  65. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    The Spirits are telling me these are the only contenders with a chance for Oscars- only those listed:

    Picture
    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Gravity
    The Wolf of Wall Street
    Nebraska

    Directing
    12 Years a Slave- McQueen
    Gravity – Cuaron
    The Wolf of Wall Street – Scorsese

    Actor
    Matthew McConaughey
    Leonardo DiCaprio

    Actress
    Cate Blanchett

    Supporting Actor
    Jared Leto
    Jonah Hill

    Supporting Actress
    Lupita Nyong’o
    Sally Hawkins

    Adapted Screenplay
    12 Years a Slave
    Philomena

    Original Screenplay
    American Hustle
    Her

  66. brian
    January 19, 2014

    off topic …

    Stay Classy, Richard Sherman … what a d-bag

  67. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    OMG lol^

  68. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    @Joe Clinton: Do you have a special breakfast after the announcements? This year was bagels and juice- next year I might actually try blueberry pancakes— the kind when the dough is still not cooked.

  69. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    *pancake batter- oh!

  70. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    *and* we ought to hear first rxns on Linklater’s BOYHOOD and TRUE DETECTIVE Episode 2 –too much going on for a Sunday night.

  71. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Sorry, last time I get off topic, but if anyone is curious who Richard Sherman is, check out this video:

    http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/01/richard-sherman-erin-andrews-interview/

  72. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Since everyone’s sharing my non-special breakfast on nomination morning were 3 sausage biscuits from Bojangles, grits, and yerba mate drink.

  73. g
    January 19, 2014

    I’m right there with you Gail, Oscar nomination day is like a national holiday to me! This last week was crazy, 3 award shows and the nominations and I’ve been cooking my ass off to have 3 dinner parties in one week. So happy the baftas are next month:) I need a break!

  74. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Gail, there would be if I knew my way around the kitchen. All those items sound delicious. Blueberry pancakes makes me think of “Pulp Fiction”. Alas, just coffee.

  75. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    I was really bad. I didn’t wake up until 10:30 am on Oscar nominations morning. But if I had, I probably would have eaten a bowl of Honey Nut Cheerios.

  76. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    LOL Al once was enough! I though people were more mellow in that part of the country hahahaha

  77. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Usually they are. I’m a spaz sometimes. LOL :-)

  78. Stephen Holt
    January 19, 2014

    Let’s see. 10pm PST. That’s like 1AM or 2 AM EST. I wonder if I’ll make it. 12 YEAR WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    And as far as BAFTA is concerned. They’re all Brits and “Dallas Buyer’s Club” is not nominated nor any of its actors. So things could really turn around when Chiwetel, Steve, Michael- All Brits(ok, Michael is Irish) win and make world class speeches. And OF COURSE, Lupita will give another equally moving tasteful speech. And y’know something, Academy Voters who are reading this. Chiwetel, Michael and Lupita are all playing REAL PEOPLE who actually LIVED.

    It’s a masterpiece, a classic. How can they not?

  79. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Now I’m REALLY rooting Broncos

  80. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    I think it’s from staying indoors too much. And lack of vitamin D from not getting enough sunlight. I’m glad the days are getting longer. My poor state is in for another round of this stupid Polar Vortex crap. It’s gonna be 3 more straight days of around 3 degrees. Yuck!! Anyone want to trade states?

    This question makes me think of the last few scenes of Fargo, when Margie is telling the bad guy: And it’s such a beautiful day out. (The scene outside is a blizzard). Too funny! :-)

  81. g
    January 19, 2014

    Gail make Danish pancakes (aebleskiver) next year, you put blueberries inside or chocolate, or lemon curd, etc. they are the best pancakes ever! You just need to buy the pan but they are not expensive.

  82. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    @g- that sounds delicious!

    And I wish there was a way to digitally send everyone here blueberry pancakes next year! I do my own special recipe!

  83. brian
    January 19, 2014

    Go Broncos … Hope Peyton picks on Sherman all day long …

  84. Hawkeye
    January 19, 2014

    Modern Family wins… shocking.

  85. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Bryce – Well, it just so happens that I do “get” it (the ending of ILD) and don’t really think it’s anything special. I mean, it’s kinda cool and fitting and all that, but certainly not something that’s not been done before or is incredibly clever or subtle. I wouldn’t necessarily consider it a sign of great intelligence to have understood it.
    I even checked the boards on IMDb after reading your comment, to see if I wasn’t, perhaps, missing something incredibly deep or smart about it, only to realize I had actually gotten it all the first time around. Just don’t see what all the fuss is about… I won’t go into any more detail as to why I don’t think it’s anything extraordinary, since you guys love it so much and seem to think it’s important to avoid spoilers on this one.

    Not that I don’t agree with your assessment of AD readers’ competence – I do, although you seem to be exaggerating a bit how bad things are everywhere else. I’ve been on IMDb for a while now and I think those who post there (at least the regulars) are also quite smart and well informed. So let’s not toot our own horns like that, it’s a bit condescending… Don’t take this personally, though – you know I like you! :)

    Overall, I thought Inside Llewyn Davis was a pretty well done, sometimes funny and relatively intriguing story with some interesting themes. Nothing too impressive, though, which is what I think of most Coens movies, actually. (Y’all can start hating on me now…)

  86. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Hawkeye, isn’t it Sofia Vergara’s “Big Boobies” win again? JK.

  87. Hawkeye
    January 19, 2014

    Al, I stand corrected.

  88. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Hawkeye, best laugh of the evening. LOL. Thank you. :-)

  89. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    “I wish there was a way to digitally send everyone here blueberry pancakes next year!”

    Be a dear and work on that..Send to:
    joeclinton660@hotmail.com.

    Thanks!

  90. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Claudiu Dobre,

    For the record, my friend didn’t care much for the movie, or the ending either. She only gave ILD a 3 out of 5. I can certainly agree it’s not for everyone.

  91. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Claudiu, it’s not just the ending though I disagree with you about it not being anything special, the whole structure of the film is astonishing how it always works in different levels, I don’t fucking understand how the writers’ branch didn’t recognize it. I will never forgive them (just like with Jonas & and Alfonso’s feat), but as Ryan said we should get into that later.

  92. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    No, don’t get me wrong – I liked the movie (and the ending). I liked it more than Fargo, for instance. Just didn’t love it… I can see why others would, though. I’m just not a big fan of the Coens’ movie making style, that’s all. It’s interesting, but not my cup of tea.

  93. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    I agree with what Sasha, Ryan, Craig, and Michael were saying on the latest Podcast about how ILD isn’t liked much now, but should find it’s way into higher praise years down the road. It’s definitely a movie that people will spread around to their friends to share. I don’t know if 12 Years a Slave is that kind of movie. No offense to 12 Years a Slave.

  94. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Ok, I can’t be pausing TRUE DETECTIVE. Be good children!

  95. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Bryce – I agree that the story and its structure are the most interesting thing about it. I’m not sure I agree with “astonishing”, but it’s definitely very interesting.

  96. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “ILD isn’t liked much now, but should find it’s way into higher praise years down the road. It’s definitely a movie that people will spread around to their friends to share. I don’t know if 12 Years a Slave is that kind of movie. No offense to 12 Years a Slave.”

    It’s probably not, but that says more about the people in question than the quality of the movie itself…

  97. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    I mean 12 Years a Slave.

  98. Hawkeye
    January 19, 2014

    Colbert Report takes Entertainment and Talk TV

  99. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    OH MY GODDD!!!!! AMERICAN HUSTLE WINS- LEAKED FOOTAGE and a very angry audience…. Oh the horror—-

    shaking….oh thank God, it was just a cat nap. I was worried for a moment.

  100. rufussondheim
    January 19, 2014

    if you haven’t yet, watch Looking on HBO! It was basic and true (although all the beards were too much).

  101. rufussondheim
    January 19, 2014

    Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that is was fun to watch the Oscar predictions of Gail Withers whither with her.

  102. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    I found “Gravity” made for a pleasant afternoon at the movies.

  103. Vincent
    January 19, 2014

    I have never seen a film like “Gravity” before, and I think it’ll be sometime before I see one again. It should be winning everything.

  104. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Claudiu Dobre,

    Yeah, poor 12 Years a Slave. I equate it to Schindler’s List. A very great movie, that should win tons of awards, but most people won’t want to necessarily spread it around like comedies or Action movies. I can’t see people saying “hey, have you seen that movie yet about the slaves?”

    I hate to say it, but to me, 12 Years a Slave is more like a great painting that is put up in an art museum to be admired.

  105. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    It’s hard to top an A-list actress in boy-shorts and a tank-top in outer space. A very pleasant 90 minutes at the picture show.

  106. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “12 Years a Slave is more like a great painting that is put up in an art museum to be admired.”

    :) Indeed…

  107. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014
  108. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Claudia, yes, and I have admired it for a half-a-dozen screenings so far. Quite sublime.

  109. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014
  110. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Joe Clinton,

    The night I saw Gravity, I called it, “a 1 hour and 23 minute roller coaster ride”. It starts, and it won’t let you off until it’s done (in a good way).

  111. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    What’s all this FOXCATCHER is Sundance secret screening noise?

  112. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Foxcatcher? Hell Yeah!! That must mean it should hopefully get a release date soon.

  113. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Ugh, the last time anything for Foxcatcher was updated on IMDb was October 8. Ugh… :-(

    Fingers crossed for updates soon. :-)

  114. christiannnw
    January 19, 2014

    Will be happy if either “American Hustle” or “12 Year a Slave”, as they’re respectively numbers five and six on my Top 10 for 2013.

  115. Hera
    January 19, 2014

    I’m hoping Wolf of Wall Street will be a surprise winner.

    I’m predicting Gravity or American Hustle will win.

  116. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Al who knows. It’s all unconfirmed, and it would be illogical. It’s going to be a fall release yes or yes so nothing probably until TIFF. Some already speculating it might be SNOWPIERCER, which would be neat too.

  117. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Okay. I’ll calm down. In a lot of ways, I’m glad that both The Monuments Men and Foxcatcher pulled out of the 2013 Oscar Race by moving to 2014. I wonder what the Best Picture might have looked like if both had been eligible in 2013? Possibly:

    12 Years a Slave
    American Hustle
    Captain Phillips
    Foxcatcher
    Gravity
    Her
    The Monuments Men
    Nebraska
    The Wolf of Wall Street

    weird….

  118. Ra S.
    January 19, 2014

    LET’s GO GRAVITY!!! Or THE WOLF OF WALL STREET!!!!

  119. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    To put it plainly, this is very definitely a 3-movie race among very well-made and utterly divergent motion pictures. We all have a favorite, but unfortunately our votes are not being solicited.

  120. Raphael
    January 19, 2014

    Hoping that Wolf win, but i think that American Hustle will win

  121. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Who else thinks Jessie James is atrocious?

  122. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    How long until we know Best Picture? An hour?

  123. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Yes, if it’s like last year. They will soon break for a limbo contest.

  124. dan
    January 19, 2014

    12 years got this

  125. Leocdc
    January 19, 2014

    There are only left to be named:
    TV Drama
    Documentary
    Picture

    so… 30 minutes?.
    Please!

  126. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    If AH wins, I am done and I will give up. I am getting insecure now..

  127. Scott
    January 19, 2014

    I thought producer awards are based on the quality and difficulty of the production and not necessarily the best picture of the year. I believe those can be two separate things. When did they become synonymous? A two person character study set in a house might be brilliant and the best pic of the year but a nominated film featuring a cast of a thousand singing about the sound of music in gladiator garb riding tigers and bears would be quite a feat to pull off as a producer.
    Wouldn’t it be more award worthy in this category?

    Why does the winner tonight automatically take best pic on Oscar night? I understand the preferential ballot but aren’t these two distinct categories (producer and best film) with different focuses?

  128. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    AWESOME!! My Avatar is working!! Sweet. :-)

  129. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014

    The difference this year is we have 3, not 2, films really vying for Best Picture. Last year Argo won the BFCA and Globe (Drama), so it was already ahead of the pack. This year we actually have a race. I will not buy into this cementing concept that just because no film has won Best Picture without PGA since 2009′s new “voting system”, this is how it always will be. Ben Affleck broke molds last year, and I am sure molds can be broken again. Don’t assume patterns will repeat. There will always be THAT movie that changed the game.

  130. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    I hope you are right, Dan. But I am totally insecure now.

  131. brian
    January 19, 2014

    Is it weird that I’m so addicted to the movie awards season? None of my friends know about this obsession of mine … lol

  132. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Not to over-simplify it, but I think they vote for what they think is the best movie.

  133. brian
    January 19, 2014

    @obamawins

    I don’t think you’ve anything to worry about … 12YaS has this wrapped up

  134. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    @brian
    I hope you are right, I really do.

  135. tintin
    January 19, 2014

    Im getting sick!!!

  136. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    The winner will be revealed in about 15 minutes or so?? Looming, looming.

  137. Jay
    January 19, 2014

    Come on 12 Years a Slave. . . Really folks, when was the last time a film got this much love?

  138. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    “12YaS has this wrapped up.” Good. That would shit-can “Gravity’s” hopes for the Oscar.

  139. Josh
    January 19, 2014

    Meh. Looking on HBO was so so. Oh boy a bunch of horny guys looking for sex. Heard it gets better after a couple eps. It better.

  140. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    I am getting really insecure now. Should I just go ahead and predict AH??Damn

  141. The Great Dane
    January 19, 2014

    @Jay:
    “Come on 12 Years a Slave. . . Really folks, when was the last time a film got this much love?”

    Uhm… Does The Social Network, the most critically acclaimed film ever, ring a bell? It is the film with most critics wins for Best Picture in the history of critics awards … and look what happened.

  142. Buford T Justice
    January 19, 2014

    I’ve seen GRAVITY twice now but still don’t know how it ends ; I assume that Bullock made it back to earth , but i just didn’t much care anyway ..imagine her being lost in space she would be the original David Bowie ”Space Oddity ” !…well I mean , her whole performance sounded like rough sex / coitus interuptis and no wonder poor Cloony cut himself free from her and drifted off into space and certain death ; he was probaly relieved to get the hell out the movie
    I was never convinced for one moment that Bullock was an astronaut and I endured as much of the movie as I could before staggering out of there like a punch drunk boxer into the light of day …it was simply AWFUL !
    This is a block buster ”movie for the masses ” and the Academy should and does have better taste in movies than this

  143. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    Buford, exceedingly well-said!

  144. cecilia
    January 19, 2014

    @Ruford The academy and most of the critics are not agree with what you had said fortunely.

  145. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Give me a fucking break a tie

  146. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    What?

    Scott Feinberg is reporting a TIE!

    First winner: Gravity.

  147. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    GRAVITY and something else
    last second predictions?

  148. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    GRAVITY and 12 YEARS!!!!

  149. Christophe
    January 19, 2014

    ah ah TIE! mindfuck…

  150. Antoinette
    January 19, 2014

    Oh I like ties.

  151. The Great Dane
    January 19, 2014

    FINALLY A TWIST IN THIS RACE!

    Gravity is back in the game! Next stop: DGA

  152. Leocdc
    January 19, 2014

    It’s a freaking TIE!!! OMG
    Gravity and …

  153. Pete
    January 19, 2014

    So…DGA it is then?

  154. The Great Dane
    January 19, 2014

    Bye bye, American Hustle. Nice knowing you. You got put back where you belong. You’re a good boy, but would be among the very worst Best Picture winners of all time, had you gone all the way.

  155. Antoinette
    January 19, 2014

    Too bad Gail didn’t have a second psychic friend or she could have predicted this accurately.

  156. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    Second winner: 12 Years a Slave!

  157. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    12 YEARS!!!

  158. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    How many people vote in these things??? How fucking unlikely is a tie, and how great is this!?

    Way better than the two unmomentous football games today

  159. Patrick
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity and 12YAS tie for PGA. With Gravity poised to win DGA and with 12YAS losing the SAG to AH, I think Gravity will win the Oscar.

  160. alan
    January 19, 2014

    Its a ties folks gravity and slave wowow

  161. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Holy shit. Exciting huh?

  162. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    Shit how the f*cking shit do you call this year. Beautiful

  163. Jeremy
    January 19, 2014

    lol american hustle

  164. Ismael Ibarra
    January 19, 2014

    HOLY SHIT A TIE!!! HOLY SHIT!!

  165. Artem
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity is going to win best picture, because Cuaron gonna win DGA.

  166. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    “Too bad Gail didn’t have a second psychic friend or she could have predicted this accurately.”

    +1

  167. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    Tie…!? Um…okay. Well, I guess…. (tongue tied) Pardon my pun.

  168. Christophe
    January 19, 2014

    Like people said Gravity / 12 Years neack and neck, split (if not tie) more than possible at the Oscars!

  169. The Great Dane
    January 19, 2014

    Within ONE minute, American Hustle went from being the frontrunner to not even the runner-up but SECOND-runner-up.

    I freakin’ love it! Best moment of this awards season with the two best films of the year honored justly! :)

  170. Simone
    January 19, 2014

    Near heart attack at this unprecedented TIE. Gravity and 12 Years a Slave won.

    The nail biting continues Oscar night.

    buh bye American Hustle!

  171. phantom
    January 19, 2014

    WOW ! I’M USUALLY NOT INTO CAPS BUT…WOW !!!

    So who will win Best Picture now, bitches ? :) At this rate, DGA could go to Scorsese just to really mess all of us up :)

    By the way, I’m glad Gravity and 12 Years a Slave won. Two flawed masterpieces for the ages. The EXACT type that should win these awards every year but so rarely does.

  172. Joe Clinton
    January 19, 2014

    This just muddies the water further.

  173. Rich
    January 19, 2014

    Easily the most exciting race in years, I don’t think the PGA has ever had a tie

  174. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    CAREFUL WITH THE UNDERDOG==> AMERICAN HUSTLE

    Something tells me they will feel right at home with that narrative.

  175. alan
    January 19, 2014

    I guess it’s gravity for the oscar cuz the dga is for sure going with gravity

  176. phantom
    January 19, 2014

    Could it be the first time a film directed by a Mexican director AND a film directed by a black man, win the PGA ? History ? HISTORY !!!

  177. Evan
    January 19, 2014

    If anyone bitches about a tie, I swear to God…

    This is what we’ve been hoping for for YEARS: an Best Picture race that is very much up in the air until the end.

  178. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    Now, if things are really _this_ close, then this makes a Picture-Director split more likely, doesn’t it?

  179. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    “Gravity is going to win best picture, because Cuaron gonna win DGA.”

    Maybe. But Gravity doesn’t have the screenplay nomination.

    Down to the wire on this one.

  180. JP
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity = PGA/DGA

    12 YAS = PGA/GG

    American Hustle = SAG/GG

    This kind of splits don’t happen since The Departed/Little Miss Sunshine/Babel year. And the BAFTA that year went to The Queen. Could Philomena take it this year?

  181. daveinprogress
    January 19, 2014

    And Luving every minute of it!

  182. Artem
    January 19, 2014

    And Gravity will win about 7 Oscars, it just can’t lose

  183. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    I guess this actually makes sense. The voters can’t decide which one they liked better, so they awarded both.

    Wow!!

  184. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    I just came back from a long bathroom break after all that vodka – Was my friend right? Gravity wins??? I told you she was one not to be underestimated. I also forget to mention- inbetween the salad and a passing of extra pita bread, she also said “I’ve waited 12 years for a menu this good.” I think she predicted the tie tonight!

  185. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    WOW! So my crazy NGNG prediction of a tie – anybody remember that long post I made a few days ago, in another thread?! :) – sort of came true, except not at the Oscars… :)) Never saw this one coming.

    So we already have 3 guild winners, even before the DGA. And the PGA in fact DOESN’T decide much this time around. Unbelievable! Definitely the most interesting Oscar race in like forever…

    I’d say it’s a big triumph for 12 Years (I think it’s the slight favorite now, no matter what wins the DGA) but, more importantly, a huge setback for Hustle, because we not only know our no.1, but also our no.2. Still, maybe Hustle was also not far behind, who knows?! I wouldn’t count it out just yet, people…

  186. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    I love this. After our confusion following the Golden Globes, the Critics’ Choice, and finally SAG, we said: PGA PGA PGA TELL US WHAT IT WILL BE… and the PGA says: ————-

  187. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    DGA is going to be Steve McQueen.

  188. phantom
    January 19, 2014

    However American Hustle – a film I don’t think would be a worthy BP winner, not against THIS kind of fierce competition – shouldn’t be underestimated just yet.

    The SAG Ensemble victory suggests that the most dominant Academy branch (Actors) will support it and Russell may be considered somewhat overdue (not in my book) for a WGA award…and films with a LOT LESS than those two crucial guild awards, have won Best Picture in the past.

    But for now, I’m just glad 12 Years a Slave is back in the frontrunner position, with Gravity and American Hustle (in that order) close behind.

  189. Christophe
    January 19, 2014

    DGA won’t clear up anything! It’ll go to Gravity like BD Oscar. It may also win loads of Baftas, but Oscar BP is just too close to call and will be until that damn envelope is open on Oscar night!

  190. Shell
    January 19, 2014

    I think this bodes well for 12 YAS.

  191. Raymond
    January 19, 2014

    GRAVITY! I’m so happy! Even though I enjoyed American Hustle I was dreading it winning. Not when such an amazing film as Gravity had been released. If 12 Years A Slave would have won solo I would have been happy for it though. But a tie! WOW!

  192. JP
    January 19, 2014

    I think none of the 3 is a film the industry truly loves above all the others like they did with Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men or The Artist. But none of the 3 are rejected by many in the way Lincoln, Life of Pi, Les Miserables, Hugo or The Social Network were.

  193. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    “Gravity = PGA/DGA

    12 YAS = PGA/GG

    American Hustle = SAG/GG”

    ^Yup. Beautiful. Everyone’s entitled to their predictions at this point. I think I’ll be doing the stupid thing and predict a split, saying 12 Years for Picture, Gravity for Director.

  194. Al Robinson
    January 19, 2014

    I guess at this point, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Oscar for Best Picture goes for a write-in choice of White House Down. Hell, a tie of White House Down and Olympus Has Fallen. (Terrible joke). :-)

  195. Hera
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity is going to win best picture. PGA this week and DGA next week.

    WOW

  196. WW
    January 19, 2014

    Scott Feinberg, tweeting from the awards, reports that when Brad Pitt picked up the PGA for ”12 Years,” he joked: ”I got my vote in at the last minute; I voted for ‘Gravity.’ ”

  197. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    “I think none of the 3 is a film the industry truly loves above all the others like they did with Argo, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men or The Artist. But none of the 3 are rejected by many in the way Lincoln, Life of Pi, Les Miserables, Hugo or The Social Network were.”

    ^I think the only one some will be “rejecting” (putting low on their final lists) is American Hustle. 12 Years and Gravity will both be ranked fairly high on basically all lists, I think. That’s why I don’t think (have never thought) American Hustle was a strong guess for winning Best Picture.

  198. Stephen Holt
    January 19, 2014

    I LOVE THIS! A TIE! OMG! How close IS this? Two great films out of Toronto may I point out! LOVE THIS!!!! Hoorah! Now I can go to bed and dream that Sasha will be right and all will be well on Oscar night!

    This effectively knocks AH into a cocked hat, as they say on Downton Abbey!

    WOW!

    Talk about an exciting year! Now on to BAFTA!

  199. Antoinette
    January 19, 2014

    I think if 12 YEARS A SLAVE is chosen by the Academy as Best Picture it will mean they are the Academy they’ve always been. If GRAVITY wins I think it will mean they’ve permanently become the Academy of the last few years.

  200. KB
    January 19, 2014

    Holy shit!!!

  201. menyc
    January 19, 2014

    For months I have been feeling an Oscar split. They WANT to honor 12 Years, they WANT to honor Cuaron. And they see Russell as an actor’s director.

  202. Patrick
    January 19, 2014

    “Gravity = PGA/DGA

    12 YAS = PGA/GG

    American Hustle = SAG/GG” – JP

    If this is indeed what happens, then Gravity is the clear winner. Thousands of members in the PGA, DGA and SAG and not even a hundred members in the GG.

  203. Zach
    January 19, 2014

    Shit just hit the fan, huh?

  204. Tufinhas
    January 19, 2014

    I wish there had been a clear winner: was (and am) rooting for Gravity. Wouldn’t have mind a 12 Years win on the PGA.

    But this indecision seems to be as a push for American Hustle, the most mediocre BP nominee this decade.

    Gosh I hope not.

    T.

  205. Simone
    January 19, 2014

    McQueen will get the DGA by the skin of the skin of his teefs ya’ll!

  206. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    When are DGA ballots dude? I just think they’re going to get tired of everyone giving *their* award to Cuaron before they even vote so they’ll probably want to join in the excitement by giving it to someone else.

  207. Jay
    January 19, 2014

    Gadzooks–a tie?! Now I know there’s going to be a split at the Oscars: Cuaron gets Best Director and 12 Years a Slave gets Best Picture. It’s the only logical scenario.

  208. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    Truth of the matter is this: the most consistent signs point to 12 Years a Slave. Globes, Critics’ Choice, PGA.

    Yes, it tied with Gravity at the Producer’s Guild. But Gravity is a Producer’s movie if there ever was one. 12 Years was 2nd in line at SAG.

  209. Paul
    January 19, 2014

    Woah!!!!!!!!! Perfect!!!! I’m really rooting for Gravity, but I know it could face some backlash if it won against the more important film that is 12 Years a Slave, so I’m glad they tied. Both are deserving anyway.

  210. Bob Burns
    January 19, 2014

    Producers Guild can be funky. Great outcome for the weekend all around. Good for all three.

    We could easily see a BAFTA for 12 Years and DGA going to Gravity and end up with a totally suspenseful Oscar ceremony.

    Is AH The Help, now?

  211. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    The best scenario, wow.
    I still think 12 Years has an edge to win the Oscars though, but congrats to both 12 Years and Gravity fans.
    Thank god, DOR must be angry now,haaaa

  212. Artem
    January 19, 2014

    I thought about this year as The Departed vs Little Miss Sunshine, where Gravity wins DGA and 12 years wins PGA, but Oscar going to Gravity.
    PGA made everything even more clear.

  213. Simone
    January 19, 2014

    Jerry, don’t forget that 12YAS will sweep at the BAFTAs too!

  214. steve50
    January 19, 2014

    Well, that clears things up.

    Guess nobody guessed that one.

  215. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    People seriously need to be reminded of the fact that Gravity wasn’t nominated for screenplay right now…

    Besides, for the Academy to award a movie like Gravity, with all their genre-bias issues, they’d have to REALLY, REALLY love it well above everything else. The tie tonight seems to indicate otherwise.

    So I still say this is a good, perhaps even great result for 12 Years a Slave. It’s the frontrunner, bur probably the most vulnerable since The Hurt Locker, or maybe Crash (don’t argue with me on this one, I can prove it was both the statistical and the perceived favorite – by those who knew what they were talking about, like Ebert).

  216. Zach
    January 19, 2014

    Of course, the best part now is how most folks will complain that this year sucks because there’s no clear winner; just as most folks say a year sucks because the winner is foretold long beforehand.

    You get what you want and you still bitch about it…

  217. JP
    January 19, 2014

    I didn’t think that way… but I’m starting to think Gravity could actually win Best Picture at the Oscars.

    I think the actor are backing American Hustle but 12 Years a Slave is not that distant in terms of support… the directors will back Gravity but, again, 12YAS and American Hustle will not be a lot behind… writers will split between 12YAS and American Hustle. And the technicians will hugely favor Gravity over the other two… in a much bigger way they favored Life of Pi and Hugo. Remember: 12 YAS and American Hustle are most certainly getting zero technical awards. Argo won editing and The Artist won costumes.

    Those two films (Hugo and Pi), I suspect, had bigger rejection among the actors than Gravity will have. If Gravity’s rejection among actors is really not that strong it could really have the edge in a very tight year.

  218. Patrick
    January 19, 2014

    People need to stop putting so much weight on the GGs and the BFCA. These major guild awards are the only ones that matter. And so far, AH has the SAG, 12YAS has the PGA and Gravity has the PGA. Don’t give the edge to 12YAS just because some random hundred people gave it an award.

  219. Matt
    January 19, 2014

    A tie with TWO GREAT FILMS Gravity & 12 Years A Slave! What a wonderful result! Now GO HELL American Hustle!

  220. Mike
    January 19, 2014

    Fun to see a race this close right down to the wire. Although what is really intriguing to me, is that the wire actually has to extend all the way from now to February. The Oscar ballots aren’t even mailed to voters until February 14th! That’s a long time to maintain any momentum…

  221. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    I just got off the phone with another friend from the dinner- Carl Buttons. She’s in her 70s, and she was at the dinner. A psychic for over 20 years, Carol told me quote “Honey I told you there was something in the air for indecisive spirits tonight.” When I asked her- Who will win the Directors Guild, she quietly said “Something with A Queen attached to it.” This means Steve McQueen will win the DGA, and 12 Years a Slave is our Best Picture.

    Oh my God, this is too good to be true.

  222. Gail Withers
    January 19, 2014

    *Carol Buttons

  223. Jason
    January 19, 2014

    Wow!!! A Tie!!!
    What if Martin Scorsese win at DGA? That will certainly make this the Best Year ever!

    Anyway, I think the decider will be BAFTA, not DGA…

  224. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “Is AH The Help, now?”

    No, AH is closer to Shakespeare in Love in terms of precursor positioning. Except there’s no Saving Private Ryan to win both PGA and DGA outright this time, but, instead, two other strong contenders, one of which will have won the PGA, and the other the PGA+DGA. Very tricky…

  225. Reno
    January 19, 2014

    wooooohooooo Graviteeeeeeee!!!!!! now the race becomes truly exciting!!!

  226. JP
    January 19, 2014

    AH The Help?

    Directing nomination? AH – YES The Help NO
    Overdue director? AH – YES The Help NO
    Writing nomination? AH – YES The Help NO
    Nominations in all acting categories? AH – Yes The Help NO
    Most acting nominations? AH
    Most nominations overall? AH (6 more)
    Has the biggest Hollywood superstar of the moment? AH
    Won the GG? AH

  227. Buford T Justice
    January 19, 2014

    Here in the UK they’re crazy for 12 YAS; it will win virtually everything except BD , but it could win that too with Steve Mcqueen caught up in the momentum

    There is more love for American Hustle (especially among actors ) than for Gravity …GRAVITY is a poor third at the bookies with American Hustle a close second

  228. Joshua
    January 19, 2014

    It doesn’t need the screenplay nod to win as other past choices have shown. And they do LOVE “Gravity” as it was nominated for 10 Oscars! However you look at it, both movies have their flaws, their detractors, and the people that love it! This will probably go right down to the wire. The problem will be how many votes will “American Hustle” steal from both films!!

  229. Simone
    January 19, 2014

    “Thank you so much for opening your hearts and minds to this film,” McQueen said in his acceptance.

  230. Rob Y
    January 19, 2014

    Not to give away results (don’t worry, no tie) but the Awards Daily simulated ballot finals will show some very interesting results, especially coming off of this PGA result.

  231. Buford T Justice
    January 19, 2014

    PS / Gravity will naturally win the techs , but I suspect little else

  232. Tufinhas
    January 19, 2014

    David O Russel is not “overdue”.

    T.

  233. Simone
    January 19, 2014

    Patrick, so now the PGA is some group of random people giving out an award? You wouldn’t say that if 12YAS wasn’t the winner tonight. And yes, it’s edge to win the Oscar has widened.

  234. WW
    January 19, 2014

    A movie can win Best Picture without a screenplay nomination. ”Titanic” comes to mind. James Cameron won the DGA, and the movie cleaned up in the tech categories. ”The Sound of Music” also won Best Picture without a screenplay nod.

  235. Zach
    January 19, 2014

    OMFG

  236. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    Why is everyone so sure that Cuaron has DGA in the bag? I now begin to think McQueen also has a shot now.

  237. JP
    January 19, 2014

    Cuarón is just not losing the Oscars if he takes GG/Critics Choice/DGA/BAFTA.

  238. Patrick
    January 19, 2014

    Simone, re-read my comment. I’m talking about how insignificant the GGs and the BFCA are, not the PGA.

  239. ScottishJellyfish
    January 19, 2014

    I can’t imagine a better race this season than the one that belongs between 12 Years and Gravity. Both are the best of the year. This solidifies them both as the frontrunner. The statistics don’t lie.

  240. Pierre de Plume
    January 19, 2014

    Is AH The Help, now?

    You just blew my mind, Bob Burns. :)

  241. TGB
    January 19, 2014

    Pretty clear now: 12YAS takes picture, Gravity director. Done and done.

    I see tonight’s results as troubling news for Lupita Nyong’o. If American Hustle isn’t going to get picture or director then its strongest chances of getting an Oscar (original screenplay is going to Her) is in one of the acting categories, and the only category it stands a chance of winning is supporting actress. I’ll bet we’ll be seeing JLaw do A LOT of campaigning in the next few weeks. STay strong Lupita!!

  242. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “It doesn’t need the screenplay nod to win as other past choices have shown.”

    Yes, one in the last 45 years… Anyway, I never said it wasn’t going to win – I just said that this factor seriously needs to be taken into consideration, and I think it makes 12 Years the favorite. Add the lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination, no matter the reasons, and you still have a serious bunch of (historical) hurdles to overcome if you’re Gravity right now. Plus the DGA isn’t even won yet – although I do think it will most likely go to Cuaron.

    “The problem will be how many votes will “American Hustle” steal from both films!!”

    With the preferential count? Unless it makes the top two, none.

  243. phantom
    January 19, 2014

    Re: American Hustle there WERE signs that it may not be the awards magnet it so convincingly looks like from afar. As I said earlier, the most dominant Academy branch (Actors) support should not be underestimated, but it definitely isn’t the monster we all thought it was.

    So far 37 critics groups and similar organizations have announced their winners this season and Hustle only won

    - 1 BP award (though arguably the most prestigious one (NYFCC) that also happened to be the first award that may have given it a false perception of being the frontrunner right out of the gate). 12 Years a Slave won 22, Gravity won 6. It won the GG but in Comedy and lost to 12 Years a Slave when they went head to head at the Critics Choice. It did win SAG Ensemble BUT they only gave Lawrence an individual nomination (12 Years a Slave received three) so they may have just gone for the biggest, flashiest, most star-studded cast as they so often do.

    - Zero BD award. Cuarón won 22, McQueen won 14. Cuarón also won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice.

    - Only 5 Screenplay awards although it is in original and adapted is widely considered considerably more competitive this year. Russell’s biggest competition in original screenplay is Spike Jonze who won 18…plus beat him at the Golden Globes (where they were together with the adapted frontrunners no less) and at the Critics Choice, making him easily the early frontrunner. Meanwhile 12 Years a Slave is leading the pack in adapted with 16 wins plus the Critics Choice and it lost the Golden Globe to Her, not even Hustle.

    Bottom line : American Hustle now needs a WGA to rehabilitate its image because based on all these data, it isn’t even top2 anymore. Not if 12 continues winning BP awards, Gravity keeps sweeping in BD and Jonze remains the frontrunner in Russell’s script category.

  244. Scott
    January 19, 2014

    12YAS represents contemporary filmmaking at it’s finest and Gravity represents modern filmmaking at it’s finest, so this sort of tie is pretty cool.

  245. phantom
    January 19, 2014

    Oh, almost forgot, here I collected all the data from this season :

    http://www.awardscorner.blogspot.hu/2013/12/awards-chart-2013.html

  246. JP
    January 19, 2014

    “David O Russel is not “overdue”.”

    For me, David Fincher, Christopher Nolan (to at least at nomination…) and specially the great Peter Weir, just to name some, are way more overdue… but we have to think with the industry’s mind… a guy whose last 3 movies scored 11 acting nominations for his last is certainly bound to get some recognition.

  247. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    A movie can win BP at the Oscars without a screenplay nomination, yes. The point is that it’s extremely rare. Since 1940, there have only been three movies that have won BP without a screenplay nomination–Hamlet, The Sound of Music, and Titanic.

    Of course, Gravity could become the fourth. But there’s no way you can look at that and not consider it somewhat of a handicap. It’s odd to me how much noise people made about 12 Years not getting nominated in cinematography and score, like that was a horribly problematic result for the movie, while they completely overlook that Gravity has no nomination in screenplay, which is a much more important category for determining a BP winner.

  248. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    “Simone, re-read my comment. I’m talking about how insignificant the GGs and the BFCA are, not the PGA.”

    @Patrick, Yeah but look at the ranking of the three guilds:

    SAG: 1. American Hustle, 2. 12 Years a Slave, 3. Gravity (necessarily)
    PGA: 12 Years a Slave-Gravity (tie), 3. American Hustle
    DGA [projection]: 1. Gravity, 2. 12 Years a Slave, 3. American Hustle

    That makes it pretty hard to call Gravity over 12 Years, or 12 Years over Gravity. So when we look to other microcosms like the Globes, the Critics’ Choice, or (likely) BAFTA, we see 12 Years winning. If you’re a good Nate Silver, I think you’re betting on 12 Years for the ultimate win.

  249. Scott
    January 19, 2014

    Wait a minute, Argo won without a freaking director nod, surely Gravity *could* win without screenplay.

    How come no one’s talking about a JLaw win meaning she’ll have back to back awards.. If she hadn’t won last year if say she’s a threat but do you all really think the academy is even considering giving it to her? She ain’t no Tom Hanks people

  250. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    “… but (AH) definitely isn’t the monster we all thought it was.”

    Ah, speak for yourself, phantom. Some of us never bought into the hype that AH was a monster in the first place.

  251. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “Wait a minute, Argo won without a freaking director nod, surely Gravity *could* win without screenplay.”

    Um, hello… Argo swept the guilds and won both the Globe and the Critics Choice, while none of its rivals won anything. Gravity hasn’t even won one of those outright yet and 12 Years is obviously much stronger than anything Argo had to face last year.

  252. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014

    This is extraordinary news for 12 Years a Slave and Gravity, but American Hustle still has a (small) chance- which I hope is diminished once DGA and BAFTA decide; it is not a worthy contender, let alone champion.

    12 Years a Slave can easily win: Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress and Production Design/Costumes.

    Gravity can easily win: Picture, Director, Cinematography, Sound, Sound-Editing, Visual Effects, Score and Film Editing.

    American Hustle can easily win: screeeeeeccccchhh- what the hell can it exactly win easily? MAYBE Original Screenplay, MAYBE Supporting Actress- and costumes. I don’t see it taking any other acting honor, I don’t see it winning Director. And I don’t see it taking Picture.

    This is now between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave.

  253. TGB
    January 19, 2014

    Something else to consider: In the last 20 years only 1 film has won the Oscar for best picture without being nominated for SAG enseble: Braveheart. And that was the inaugural year of the SAG awards.

    I can’t see the actors in the AMPAS voting best picture for a film that only features 2 actors.

  254. Andrew
    January 19, 2014

    Oh I would love nothing more for Gravity to take everybody by surprise and win Best Picture.

  255. Scott
    January 19, 2014

    The thing about the screenplay nod is that a film like Gravity isn’t really expected to have one. It’s a technically brilliant film; a missing VFX nod would be a better sign of weakness. Just like Titanic (another VFX epic), Hamlet (its already Shakespeare), and Sound of Music (it’s lyrics, not dialogue, stans out) aren’t “expected” to get nods for writing because that’s not what makes them great films.

  256. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    I have one question, and I honestly don’t know the answer. Why is 12 YEARS the favorite to win BAFTA over GRAVITY?

  257. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    AH isn’t a monster, indeed, which is great news! But don’t for a second think it’s not a big threat – it could easily split with Cuaron, like Crash and Shakespeare in Love, with just the SAG win as a major precursor.

  258. Scott
    January 19, 2014

    @claudiu

    Duh, I’m just pointing out that one of the biggest stats of all was defied last year so it ***could*** happen

  259. MWeyer
    January 19, 2014

    Well, this just shot a bunch of early Oscar procrastinators to hell….

    Which I love, nice to get some fire going here.

  260. Chris138
    January 19, 2014

    Wow! My two favorite movies of the year tied! That is truly unexpected, but it keeps things exciting. Thank god American Hustle didn’t win.

  261. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “Something else to consider: In the last 20 years only 1 film has won the Oscar for best picture without being nominated for SAG enseble: Braveheart. And that was the inaugural year of the SAG awards.

    I can’t see the actors in the AMPAS voting best picture for a film that only features 2 actors.”

    I love people who know the stats by heart, like me! :) I’m a big stats-geek…

    And on the screenplay thing – again, nobody’s saying Gravity CAN’T win with that problem alone. But there’s also the SAG Ensemble thing, the strength 12 Years has shown and the genre thing. Put them all together and it’s not looking as good as all that. It can still do it – anything’s possible -, but it seems quite a bit unlikely to me right now.

    To be honest, I might be a bit more worried about American Hustle, actually.

  262. brian
    January 19, 2014

    AH, Gravity, and 12YaS are all very good films. Glad that all three are receiving accolades. I may be in the minority, but I’d be happy with any of these three films winning the Oscar for BP.

  263. Zach
    January 19, 2014

    Bryce, Gravity can win British film, so I think they’ll exploit that and give 12YAS (or maybe just maybe Hustle) the main Best Picture award.

    How in the hell does a tie happen with a preferential ballot? Or maybe mathematically it’s easier with a preferential ballot?

  264. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    And, just to be perfectly clear: Argo NOT winning last year after it got SAG, PGA, DGA, Globe and BFCA would have been EVEN MORE stats-defying than its winning without a BD nomination was, because that has NEVER happened in the almost 20 years since the SAG and BFCA started giving out their awards…

  265. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Zach, but they can’t give it Best British Film after all that backlash they got for putting it there. Wait there’s my answer. Yeah it’s 12 YEARS.

  266. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “How in the hell does a tie happen with a preferential ballot? Or maybe mathematically it’s easier with a preferential ballot?”

    That’s what I was speculating about in that post I made a few days ago – did nobody read it?!… :( Heck of a bit of intuition, that was – I’d never even considered a potential tie before in my life, even though I knew they’d happened before in awards shows.

  267. Joshua
    January 19, 2014

    I don’t know why people are picking “12 Years A Slave” to sweep the BAFTAs as it didn’t get a nomination for “Best British Film.” However, “Gravity” managed to get nominated in that category!!

  268. Rob Y
    January 19, 2014

    I can’t see the actors in the AMPAS voting best picture for a film that only features 2 actors.

    I CAN see the actors in the AMPAS voting best picture for a film that 50% of the actors on screen received an acting nomination.

  269. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    “The thing about the screenplay nod is that a film like Gravity isn’t really expected to have one. It’s a technically brilliant film; a missing VFX nod would be a better sign of weakness. Just like Titanic (another VFX epic), Hamlet (its already Shakespeare), and Sound of Music (it’s lyrics, not dialogue, stans out) aren’t “expected” to get nods for writing because that’s not what makes them great films.”

    This may be true, but the point is, history shows that AMPAS tends to favor movies where screenplay is important. And as Claudiu has already pointed out, it’s the lack of the screenplay nomination combined with the lack of SAG Ensemble nomination (I know it wasn’t going to get a nom here, but again, BP winners more often than not tend to have at least somewhat sizeable casts), and the AMPAS genre bias. Those are several hurdles Gravity needs to overcome.

    But could it overcome them all? Absolutely. Just be aware of those bumps in the road.

  270. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Well, there you have it – AD has already switched its BP frontrunner (on the home page) from American Hustle to 12 Years a Slave, and AH is still 2nd, with Gravity only 3rd. That’s just about how I see it too.

  271. ramiro
    January 19, 2014

    well, 12 years a slave will win BP then. nice.

  272. Hera
    January 19, 2014

    Didn’t Brokeback Mountain lose BP after winning everything but SAG?

  273. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    I was thinking GRAVITY is really strong among BAFTA as evidenced by the Screenplay nod even more so than the by the British Film nod.

  274. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity might win BAFTA after winning the DGA, and it would make its threat loom a bit larger, although the BAFTA isn’t very important, but I’d still take 12 Years a Slave for Picture even then.

  275. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Yup, and Brokeback only had two problems – homophobia and no editing nomination…

  276. ramiro
    January 19, 2014

    imagine greengrass winning BD at DGA: holy shit!!!!!!! that would be nice.

  277. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    Sasha or Ryan. It is time to remove that annoying AH poster and replace it with Gravity.

  278. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Scorsese winning would probably be the biggest mindfuck… Greengrass can’t really happen – I believe a director not nominated for the Oscar has (almost?) never won the DGA.

  279. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    Claudiu,

    So generally speaking you don’t think GRAVITY will win the Best Picture Oscar. Is that it?

  280. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “Sasha or Ryan. It is time to remove that annoying AH poster and replace it with Gravity.”

    They’ll replace it with 12 Years a Slave, hopefully… But yeah, the AH poster was really annoying, I agree.

  281. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “So generally speaking you don’t think GRAVITY will win the Best Picture Oscar. Is that it?”

    :) Honestly, at this point, no. I think if it was winning, it wouldn’t have just tied here.

  282. Hera
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity looks pretty strong to me with the most nominations PGA win and if it wins DGA. Lack of a screenplay nom is a lot less important then lack of an editing or directing nom. What if Gravity wins the ACE along with DGA?

  283. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    I think, DGA or no DGA, it’s probably not winning Best Picture.

  284. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    What if Gravity wins the ACE along with DGA?

    Dude, honestly, David O. Russell is winning DGA.

  285. Hera
    January 19, 2014

    Didn’t Spielberg win DGA for Color Purple with no Oscar directors nom?

  286. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “Lack of a screenplay nom is a lot less important then lack of an editing or directing nom.”

    Huh?! Say again?! Editing maaaaybe, although statistically it’s about the same. But director has already happened twice as many times as screenplay since 1966…

  287. Robert A.
    January 19, 2014

    “I believe a director not nominated for the Oscar has (almost?) never won the DGA.”

    It has happened a few times in the past, but it usually happens when the DGA wants to reward a director that the Academy inexplicably didn’t nominate–Affleck last year, Ron Howard for Apollo 13, Spielberg for The Color Purple are the most recent examples. I doubt Greengrass will strike DGA as a grievous omission from the BD Oscar lineup.

  288. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    I know there are probably some exceptions, Hera – that’s why I added the “almost?” in brackets. Couldn’t find a quick way to check that one. But I’m pretty sure it’s impossibly rare.

  289. Bryce Forestieri
    January 19, 2014

    So what if GRAVITY wins DGA + ACE + BAFTA? My conclusion after that would be that is 3rd in line. This is based on a table I just made. I’ll share it later with you guys.

  290. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Oh, yeah, Howard. And Affleck, of course… I guess it’s not as rare as I thought. But anyway, CP is nowhere near as strong as those, so he obviously has 0 chances.

  291. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “he” :))
    “IT obviously has 0 chances.”

  292. JP
    January 19, 2014

    “It did win SAG Ensemble BUT they only gave Lawrence an individual nomination (12 Years a Slave received three) so they may have just gone for the biggest, flashiest, most star-studded cast as they so often do.”

    But Phantom… It is weird to talk about trends when it comes to SAG. There doesnt seem to have one.

    The Aviator had a bigger cast. Million Dollar Baby was the Oscar frontrunner. Sideways still took the SAG home despite a small cast and not being considered the best film. It had 3 nominations there, more than the other 2.

    Up In the Air scored 3 acting noms just like Sideways and is a film staring the guy who is the most likeable/respected movie star… No Best Ensemble nomination.

    Doubt scored 4 acting nominations… Still lost ensemble to the unstoppable Slumdog Millionaire, which scored Dev Patel there and had a cast of virtually unknown actors.

    The Artist was also unstoppable… Its leads are two french and a dog, who should have been nominated for Best Supporting Actor that year but was ineligible for all those awards. Lost to The Help.

    Lord of the Rings didnt score a single acting nomination and still beat the big, flashy cast of Mystic River, who scored 3.

    And there are lots of other examples of how tough is to find a trend in the SAG choices. Sometimes they go for big, sometimes for movie stars, sometimes for the clear frontrunner, sometimes for the flashy…

  293. Hera
    January 19, 2014

    Titanic is the most famous example of a film that won with no screenplay nomination. With 14 nominations and $500 mil box office no one believed the lack of a screenplay nom would effect its chances of winning.

  294. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    I don’t understand the appeal of Modern Family. I watched it the first 2 seasons and then stopped. Seemed the stories were redundant.

    Well well well, a tie. Does that mean we’ll have a tie at the Oscars? And somebody tell me why it takes the Oscars so LONGGGG to broadcast after the major awards shows have announced?

  295. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014

    Russell ain’t winning no DGA. If that happens, I would be floored.

  296. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “Titanic is the most famous example of a film that won with no screenplay nomination. With 14 nominations and $500 mil box office no one believed the lack of a screenplay nom would effect its chances of winning.”

    Yes, but it was nominated for the SAG, unlike Gravity, and it won PGA+DGA outright. Meanwhile, the SAG winner that year was super-weak (The Full Monty), with no editing, PGA or DGA nominations. So, obviously, a totally different and much, much more favorable situation for Titanic than it is for Gravity…

  297. luna
    January 19, 2014

    Perhaps whoever up there that said they didn’t for one minute buy Bullock as an astronaut should get a hearing check, because Bullock was NOT an astronaut, it was made extremely clear her character Dr. Stone was an earthbound scientist and engineer/payload specialist who was on her maiden shuttle mission and from the outset having a hard time adjusting to space conditions under the best of circumstances. Maybe before criticizing movies you should, you know, actually watch them and use your listening skills so you don’t sound like a moron.

  298. Zach
    January 19, 2014

    @Claudiu, sorry, I don’t always read through the threads, but that was very insightful of you to pose the question. At first I was thinking that a tie under a preferential ballot must be so unlikely, given the complex redistribution system. But then I thought, maybe it’s actually easier with the preferential ballot because you don’t have to have two films with the exact same number of #1 votes. Instead you redistribute… I’d love to see Marshall tackle this. Maybe 12YAS had more #1 votes than any other film, but most who didn’t already pick 12YAS had their votes redistributed to Gravity. Either way, the outcome seems crazy and unlikely. Are we sure the PGA requires an exact tie?

    @Bryce–that’s a good point about it being outrageous to consider Gravity a British film. Sometimes they avoid the obvious, or actually reward a genuine British film with the Brit film award. Like last year, Les Mis was up for both, but they gave Best British Picture to Skyfall and obviously Best Picture to Argo. If that happens this year, I still think Gravity is too popular, too accessible for them to pass up in both categories. So it’s either 12YAS and Gravity or Gravity and Philomena.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 19, 2014

      At first I was thinking that a tie under a preferential ballot must be so unlikely, given the complex redistribution system. But then I thought, maybe it’s actually easier with the preferential ballot because you don’t have to have two films with the exact same number of #1 votes.

      Tomorrow when we publish the internal round-by-round breakdown of the simulated ballot experiment, you’ll be able to see a hypothetical situation with 2 ways of running the numbers.

  299. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    “Russell ain’t winning no DGA. If that happens, I would be floored.”

    True, it’d be like the sickest thing ever, and such a clear, clear sign that American Hustle is winning Best Picture…

  300. Buford T Justice
    January 19, 2014

    12 YAS is looked at as a patriotic British endeaver , with Brit actors ; they’ve even tactically voted out the opposition ”Mconaughey and leto ” so Fassbender and Ejiofor will win

    12 YAS will sweep BAFTA …i’m here in the UK and I hear the noise for 12YAS , it’s winning

  301. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    There’s probably some purely mathematical way to figure out under which system it’s more likely – I just don’t know it and aren’t good enough to figure it out immediately. :) I can’t find a logical solution to that question either – too many factors, too many possible scenarios…

  302. Hera
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity has only two actors and was not going to be nominated for SAG ensemble. Like Titanic it has the biggest box office, most nominations and no screenplay nom. It can certainly win BP.

  303. Zach
    January 19, 2014

    I just realized that David Heyman, one of the Gravity producers, produced all the Harry Potter films. Certainly the money was already his reward, but what a good crop of producers this year with such appealing backstories. Heyman, responsible for the most successful film series ever, channeling his passion for popularly appealing projects into an arthouse sci-fi with the most popular woman over 40 in the lead. Brad Pitt, King of Hollywood, who has been pushing himself as an actor for years, pushing beyond his looks, with Angelina his Queen having JUST won the Jean Hersholt Humanitarian Award, and now he’s up for the first great film masterpiece about slavery. Megan Ellison, a cutting-edge producer, and now the first female producer nominated twice in one year, and for two such distinct but popularly appealing works in American Hustle and Her. And of course the eligible directors themselves — McQueen, Cuaron, Jonze (to say nothing of David O. Russell’s string of hit acting showcases).

  304. Kiel
    January 19, 2014

    This is the best film awards moment of the decade!

  305. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014

    I love when people say “No film has ever won Best Picture without _____”; No film has ever won Best Picture without ____ Oscar nods.

    We just had a tie at PGA—- Anything is Possible!

    Sit back and enjoy the ride.

  306. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    Cool, Ryan. Will be looking forward to that. Very curious to see who won the simulation!

    “Gravity has only two actors and was not going to be nominated for SAG ensemble.”

    I’m not going to repeat the argument. I’ve already explained countless times why this isn’t the point… Plus I just conclusively illustrated how vastly different the situation was in 1997, when Titanic had no really strong rivals (and was SOLE first with 14 noms, not tied with 10).

  307. Zach
    January 19, 2014

    Gravity — first sci-fi film to win / first Hispanic/Mexican/Latino director/producer to win?

    12 Years a Slave — first slavery film to win / first black director/producer to win / Brangelina

  308. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    But yes, of course, anything is possible, and a Gravity win wouldn’t exactly be THE most unlikely scenario, stats-wise. But I’m fairly confident it’s not going to happen – as confident as anybody can be about anything in a season that’s so crazy.

  309. ObamaWins
    January 20, 2014

    Bye bye, American Hustle.

  310. Gail Withers
    January 20, 2014

    Just got back in from a last-minute, urgent Psychic dessert meeting with good psychic friends Carol Chambers and Pat Richardson. After some quick bites and wine, we discussed two things:

    1) The chocolate mousse delicacy Carol picked out was quite scrumptious, and I know I need to lose twenty pounds now.

    2) The PGA results were maddening, but we figured a tie was in order. Anywhoo- here are the Psychic predictions for the major Oscar winners. Keep in mind this is just for now- spirits and karma can change:

    BEST PICTURE
    Withers: 12 Years a Slave
    Chambers: Gravity
    Richardson: Gravity

    BEST DIRECTOR
    Withers: Cuaron
    Chambers: Cuaron
    Richardson: Cuaron

    BEST ACTOR:
    Withers: DiCaprio
    Chambers: McConaughey
    Richardson: Dern

    BEST ACTRESS
    Withers: Blanchett
    Chambers: Blanchett
    Richardson: Blanchett

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
    Withers: Leto
    Chambers: Fassbender
    Richardson: Leto

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
    Withers: Nyong’o
    Chambers: Hawkins
    Richardson: Nyong’o

  311. ObamaWins
    January 20, 2014

    It is so obvious that 12 Years A Slave is going to take best picture, you really think a sci fi film without a screenplay nod and multiple acting nominations is going to prevail and win over a drama like 12 Years of Slave? Don’t get me wrong, if Gravity wins, I will be happy, but it doesn’t really matter how DGA next week goes. I think 12 Years will eventually win the big ones.

  312. Jesus Alonso
    January 20, 2014

    I think this changes nothing, DGA actually may underline American Hustle’s new frontrunner status.

    For whatever reason, I can’t see (even if he deserves it so much) Academy Award Brad Pitt, still. Neither them going “Gravity”. “American Hustle” has all the key noms and actually there’s reasonable chance it can win every cathegory, even if a longshot. The most difficult one, Amy Adams defeating Cate Blanchett, is possible due to the factor it would be 5-0 to Adams in a decade, something that will be consider as soulless punishment to a woman whose most iconic performance in that very same decade, went snubbed of even the nom (Enchanted).

  313. Evan
    January 20, 2014

    TGB- Gravity wasn’t nominated in Ensemble at the SAG because *there are only two actors.* Its omission there is hardly a product of actors’ unwillingness for the film, but merely practicality. I hardly think that it missing an award that it wasn’t built for disqualifies it as an Oscar contender.

    But to you, it’s all clear now? Your prediction could certainly come true, but that’s only one of many ways this could all go down over the next few weeks.

  314. ObamaWins
    January 20, 2014

    Jesus Alonso, you are stretching. Amy Adams is not going to win.

  315. The Great Dane
    January 20, 2014

    How can people STILL bring up Gravity’s lack of a SAG Ensemble nod?
    Don’t they understand WHY it didn’t get nominated?

  316. Marcus Perriello
    January 20, 2014

    I never would have called this a tie. It makes me wonder if there could be a tie for Best Picture at the Oscars, this year. Also, the fact that it was ‘Gravity’ that ’12 Years a Slave’ tied with and not ‘American Hustle.’ This means that Alfonso Cauron and ‘Gravity’ are actually gaining traction. Could the unthinkable happen and ‘Gravity’ wins Best Picture on Oscar night? Well, if so, it would rank up there with the 1999 Academy Awards when ‘Shakespeare In Love’ emerged as Best Picture over ‘Saving Private Ryan.’ I’m really excited to see how this all plays out. ‘Gravity’ winning alongside ’12 Years a Slave’ puts a new perspective on the Best Picture race. Who knows. Maybe the DGA will give us a more clear indication.

  317. Christophe
    January 20, 2014

    @Gail

    Fascinating read! Though it seems you and your psychic friends don’t know much more than we do, after all you’ve listed all the usual suspects but Jennifer Lawrence and Chiwetel Ejiofor (even though he’s been apprently downgraded lately).

    I like Chambers’ picks the most with the exception of McConaughey, I wish you were right on this one (DiCaprio).

  318. Jason Travis
    January 20, 2014

    @Jesus Alonso: Like the Biblical figure your first name indicates, it’s going to take a Miracle for me to believe in your predictions.

    American Hustle earned nods in all key categories? So did Gravity and 12 Years a Slave. None of them missed crucial nods such as directing or editing.

    Amy Adams wins Best Actress against tour de force Cate Blanchett? If that happens, I would call Kanye West personally to interrupt Amy’s speech immediately, and I don’t think there would be a Tweet that would object him doing so. Adams earned her first nomination in Junebug, but since has been swept away into nominations by appearing in ensemble films (Doubt, The Fighter, The Master, American Hustle). Sure she was fine in them, but save The Master I don’t think she was worthy. And certainly not against Blanchett, who has won every critic award except NBR plus all the televised precursors. It would be a total scam.

    David O. Russell winning directing wouldn’t be validated either- he’s a sore loser (remember last year’s BAFTA?), difficult to work with and in trouble with the law. His entire cast should take him outside of a bar and beat him with all the scripts he ripped off, including Casino and Goodfellas- clearly the tone he tried to set (and failed) with American Hustle. He might win Screenplay, but against Spike Jonze’s Her? People keep saying AH is a frontrunner for screenplay, yet it hasn’t WON the damn thing yet.

    Christian Bale and Bradley Cooper can go to the Oscars drunk and relieved their performances made the finals against much better competition from the likes of Redford, Hanks and Whitaker for Actor, and McConaughey, Bruhl and Franco in Supporting.

    Jennifer Lawrence is the strongest bet to prevail, but her recent tired and bratty ways in press conferences (especially last night’s SAG talk) make me think voters will check off Lupita Nyong’o with ease. Lawrence is dreadful in the film, and doesn’t need an underserved win to her already questionable first victory (yep, I was in Riva’s camp). She can still look stunning in Dior and make funny comments without winning.

    The voters can give American Hustle costumes and production design, the only two categories it would deserve- and then breathe a sigh of relief that they weren’t forced to go with the Herd Mentality that this was actually CONSIDERED a best picture frontrunner.

    Gravity and 12 Years a Slave will be the big winners March 2nd.

  319. Reno
    January 20, 2014

    Gravity has 8 actors. Sandra, George & 6 Voice actors. Sleuth has 2. All is Lost has 1. Swimming to Cambodia has 1.

  320. Reno
    January 20, 2014

    @mweyer, uh, “early Oscar procrastinators?” Do you mean people so adept at procrastinating that they put off doing tasks in advance?

    It’s either that or you’re actually referring to prognosticators.

  321. Razor
    January 20, 2014

    OK, so it seems to break down like this:

    * 12YAS & Gravity are the clear frontrunners but the race is very close
    * 12YAS has won the most precursors for Picture while Gravity has the most for Director; AH, on the other hand, has only won 2 awards for Picture and 0 for Director
    * The SAG likely awarded AH because they like movies with many good parts for actors
    * The Actors’ branch is by far the largest branch of the Academy

    => a split between the two most prestigious categories Best Picture & Director seems likely. If so, the only reasonable outcome is 12YAS for Picture and Gravity for Director, especially since the former is much more actor-friendly than the latter. Case closed.

  322. ReRe
    January 20, 2014

    That piece of crap Scorsese wanna be, American Hustle, is going to win now because the other two will split the vote.

  323. darylMFdixon
    January 20, 2014

    This tie makes me so happy! It shows that PGA acknowledges political pressure to award 12YS but that they know that Gravity is true achievement in film-making so they won’t bow to Slaver zealots by snubbing it. Go Gravity and Cuaron! Anyone can make a movie like 12YS and many did. Nobody could make Gravity! Screw politics.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 20, 2014

      It shows that PGA acknowledges political pressure to award 12YS but that they know that Gravity is true achievement in film-making so they won’t bow to Slaver zealots by snubbing it.

      So all 15,000 members of the Directors Guild met up at Denny’s last week and half of them called dibs on voting for Gravity and the other 7,500 directors reluctantly agreed to vote for 12 Years a Slave. Sounds logical.

  324. Luke
    January 20, 2014

    Woohoo! Even though Her is my favorite this year, I am very happy for a Gravity win. It is the defining film this year and will be best remembered.

  325. Sato
    January 20, 2014

    PGA WASN’T meant to go to American Hustle in the first place… The surprise here was 12 Years a Slave TIED with Gravity which gave us a three-way race to the Oscars. DGA is Cuaron’s to lose. If McQueen sneaked over him then 12 Years a Slave will have a slight edge, if Cuaron wins it then it will still be a three-way race. American Hustle as I’ve been vocal here is my top 1 of the year but I am sure not expecting O. Russell to win the DGA (because Cuaron deserves it so much for making great films for the past years). But if in case O. Russell won the DGA, I sense that he’ll become the most hated person to ever lived in the world since Hitler…

    I also think that the BAFTAs won’t matter since it’s obviously will be going to 12 Years a Slave. But Gravity is just there behind it hanging on. What American Hustle proved this award season is that it proved to be a force to be reckon with from the day it won NYFC. And the fact that it received universal acclaim from the critics means that it is a worthy winner for BP. People just have to get easy with O. Russell, JLAw and the rest. They made a film that’s giving 12 Years and Gravity a run for their money that’s why this awards season is the most exciting in years!!!

  326. darylMFdixon
    January 20, 2014

    @Ryan Adams, you can be snarky as much as you want, it’s your site after all, and that’s fine. I’m happy that incredible achievement Gravity wasn’t pushed aside by the movie with really annoying political pressure behind it. No offense, but you and Sasha contributed to that annoyance a lot. No, people who prefer movies that aren’t 12YS, director who isn’t McQueen and actors who aren’t Ejiofor and Nyong’o are not racist latent or otherwise. We just think others did a better job. If they happen to be white, it’s because, sadly, white people dominate the industry and have better shot at making and starring in prestigious movies that get awards attention.

    IMO, McQueen isn’t a very good director because his passage of time in 12YS was atrocious. The movie felt like it took place within couple of months. Also, casting Brad Pitt in that role (I’m trying not to spoil the movie) was atrocious idea. Distracting, took me out of the movie, felt really Hollywoodized and out of place. Those decisions are director’s and I thought they weakened the movie considerably. So, IMO, Cuaron and Scorcese were way better but Cuaron would have my vote because nobody achieved what he did. Nobody could make a movie that he made. No offense, but 12YS-like movies and TV shows have been made since Roots or even earlier and 12YS had nothing new to say that we didn’t know. IMO, Leo’s monologue in Django broke some new ground about how people back in dark times were thinking. 12YS was business as usual.

    Ditto actors. Leo is in another league from anyone altogether. It’s a travesty that he was uncertain nominee and that he isn’t a frontrunner. But I choke it up to late release of his movie. And I’d honestly swap Ejiofor for Hanks cause I couldn’t connect with Ejiofor’s constipated look. I think he’s by far the weakest of nominees I’ve seen (haven’t seen Dern). Ditto Nyong’o. Sally Hawkins owns her and un-nominated Margot Robbie owns all nominees. Yes, those actors happen to be white but they had something to do while Ejiofor and Nyong’o played boring, passive characters. They may be better actors than the script let them but, screw it, your character is boring so you’re not making my ballot if I can’t remember your scenes.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 20, 2014

      Somebody is talking about race here. Giving a big speech. But it doesn’t appear to be me. I think it’s you.

      I have not been lecturing about race so please get off my back and maybe stop being so defensive.

  327. Sammy
    January 20, 2014

    I have successfully predicted Gravity winning PGA. I wrote many times that there is no industry-wide (Argo, The Artist like) support for 12YAS and it makes the BP race open to surprises. It is now DGA and if Cuaron wins then it will be over.

  328. Rich
    January 20, 2014

    American Hustle is the most over-rated and undeserving Best Picture nominee in a long time. How does anybody think Jennifer Lawrence deserve an Oscar for her performance in that movie??? It’s embarrassing if the Academy reward her or that film in any if the top categories. I’m still recovering from last year when Jennifer Lawrence won Best Actress over Emmanuelle Riva

  329. Reno
    January 20, 2014

    actually, based on protestations by rocket scientists, Cuaron didn’t do his homework quite thoroughly as there were several astrophysically impossible sequences in the movie, i guess that’s why it qualifies as science fiction, nevertheless, Gravity is one fantastic hell of a thrill ride & i loved every second of it!

  330. g
    January 20, 2014

    Omg! I just woke up in Michigan and was starting to make breakfast when I suddenly realized in my sleep fog brain that I had to see who won the PGA overnight. I was dreading looking because I thought for sure American hustle would win and that movie really disappointed me except for jl. But no a fracking tie! my head exploded! scifi and slavery win! I’m so happy I just can’t believe it!

  331. Sammy
    January 20, 2014

    My Predictions:

    Picture: Gravity
    Director: Cuaron
    Actor: McConaughey
    Actress: Blanchett
    Supporting Actor: Leto
    Supporting Actress: Nyong’o
    Original Screenplay: Her
    Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave

    Editing: Gravity
    Cinematography: Inside Llewyn Davis
    Sound Mixing: Gravity
    Sound Editing: Captain Phillips
    Production Design: Her
    Visual Effects: Gravity
    Costume Design: Great Gatsby
    Makeup & Hair: Dallas Buyers Club
    Original Score: Her
    Original Song: Frozen

    Awards Breakdown:

    Gravity: 5
    Her: 3
    Dallas Buyers Club: 3
    12 Years a Slave: 2

  332. rufussondheim
    January 20, 2014

    Any good psychic knows the Oscars will be cancelled mid-show because there will be an epic epidemic of dysentery just after Best Animated feature goes to The Croods.

  333. Simon Warrasch
    January 20, 2014

    OH MY GOSH!!!!! Nobody saw that comming!!!!!

    I don’t believe that there will be a TIE at the Oscars! BUT with this unexpected and unbelievable wins last night Gravity could win BEST PICTURE over 12 Years a Slave!

    We all remember what happend in the year 2011 when “The Social Network” was the clear favourite for the win, with winning the most critics, the GG, Satellite and the Critics Choice! And at the PGA “The Kings Speech” won! And we all know how the Academy Awards ended!

    So Gravity could win:

    Picture (12 Years a Slave vs. Gravity)
    Director (Alfonso Cuaron vs. Steve McQueen)
    Leading Actress (Cate Blanchett vs. Sandra Bullock)
    Edeting (Gravity vs. ?)
    Cinematography (Gravity vs. ?)
    Production Design (The Great Gatsby vs. Gravity)
    Sound Edeting (Gravity vs. The Lone Survivor vs. Captain Phillips)
    Sound Mixing (Gravity vs. The Lone Survivor vs. Captain Phillips)
    Score (Gravity vs. ?)
    Visual Effects (Gravity vs. ?)

  334. Simone
    January 20, 2014

    @ Joshua -

    “I don’t know why people are picking “12 Years A Slave” to sweep the BAFTAs as it didn’t get a nomination for “Best British Film.” However, “Gravity” managed to get nominated in that category!!”

    Dude, that’s because 12YAS is not a British financed film, nor was it filmed in England. Gravity was filmed in England with some British financial backing.

    There’s the difference son. 12YAS has British/Irish talent, but USA money.

  335. Bob Burns
    January 20, 2014

    never underestimate Warner.

    with the guilds spread around Academy members can vote without the “frontrunner/no chance clutter….. for the first time since I have been Oscar-watching here. Traffic/Gladiator/Tiger maybe.

    btw…. AH had a very good weekend at the box office.

  336. Koleś
    January 20, 2014

    American Hustle is probably out of the race, at least when it comes to Picture and Director. DGA will be the key award, but that goes to Cuaron or McQueen. I don’t think there will be a Picture/Director split, it’s either Gravity or 12YAS all the way. Gravity wins a shitload no matter what, but 12YAS might easily get away with 4-5 awards (Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supp. Actress, maybe art direction or costumes). Hustle’s biggest chances are in the original screenplay category, and I think it’ll be the movie’s only award of the evening. I would very much prefer to see Her win, but it’s hard to bet that a movie with 11 nominations will get nothing (which is not all that impossible, but very unlikely).

  337. SallyinChicago
    January 20, 2014

    Moderator: Please start another thread on this subject — or please reverse the comments.

    Anyway, I saw Gravity, and it still baffles me — what happened to Geo Clooney? Where did he go? Did he die? I walked out of that theater with him on my mind. And oh yeh, did the jets pick up Sandra?

  338. SallyinChicago
    January 20, 2014

    OH MY GOSH!!!!! Nobody saw that comming!!!!!
    ^^ I can see a couple of ties coming.
    I can see the Best Supporting Actor as a split and the best movie as a split.
    I still don’t think the main-stream, old-time Oscar members will vote for Jared Leto. I think they’ll go for Fassbender.

  339. Pete
    January 20, 2014

    It’s like the Electoral College. Hustle definitely needs script, an acting win, and editing to win BP without BD. Gravity needs directing and probably a near sweep of the techs to make up for no acting win or script nod. 12 Years needs script, an acting win, and probably director to win picture. The DGA and WGA might be the last stand for Hustle.

  340. Corvo
    January 20, 2014

    If politics prevails, 12 years wins. If pure cinema prevails, Gravity wins. Exciting race. I’m rooting for Gravity but if there is a split (Cuaron BD, 12 years BP) I’m fine with that.

  341. violet hour
    January 20, 2014

    i’m supporting 12 yrs a slave win over everthing else or just anything but AH !

    so happy with the results
    and woohoo for breaking bad

  342. joeyhegele
    January 20, 2014

    “That piece of crap Scorsese wanna be, American Hustle, is going to win now because the other two will split the vote.”
    –ReRe

    I liked American Hustle. It was a fun little film. It reminded me of another con movie that won Best Picture: The Sting. I am not rooting for it to win Best Picture, but it would not be an embarrassment if it did.

    However, I agree 100% with you ReRe about O’Russell basically ripping off Scorsese’s style for American Hustle. I think O’Russell is a talented director, but every edit, every zoom, and every song choice in this film was right out of the Scorsese handbook. I mean, if you are going to steal, steal from the best, but it really surprised me how much American Hustle felt like a Scorsese forgery. It it is funny when you think about that scene between Bale and Cooper when Bale is talking about how the forgeries of the great pieces of art come from talented people. It almost felt like O’Russell was saying, “Hey, I may be ripping off Scorsese’s style, but I still have talent! as a director” If O’Russell does win the DGA or Oscar, I hope he mentions in his acceptance speech how every directorial choice he made on American Hustle was decided by him simply asking, “What would Scorsese do?”

  343. ObamaWins
    January 20, 2014

    Corvo.Why is it politics if 12 Yers won? Who says? You?

  344. Simone
    January 20, 2014

    Corvo, why does politics come into play when you say 12YAS could win. Why can’t the film win on its own artistic merits like you designate to Gravity?

    I’m tired of such polarizing chatter, stop discounting 12YAS as if it were some Lifetime Sunday afternoon movie.

  345. JPNS Viewer
    January 20, 2014

    I’m in minority here as an American Hustle supporter re awards season.

    But that’s life – if not Hustle, then 12 Years, or Gravity, or both 12 Years and Gravity.

    Congrats to both films. You’ve earned it (Had it been Hustle, I though would have said the same). My point: too many seemingly great films this (last) year.

    To Sasha or any other pro bloggers who happen to visit this page

    If you’d like, on AD, or with your own links provided in case of other pro bloggers than Sasha, I’d like to hear from you re Hustle chance in Oscars BP and BD (etc.) in particular, against 12 Years and/or Gravity.
    I still believe Hustle has a chance to win the biggest award regardless of its BD winning prospect (for now). If not Hustle, for now I guess 12 Years will win BP.

    PS: To one reader, was it really necessary to call Hustle a “P-o-S”? [face-palm]

  346. Eric P.
    January 20, 2014

    @darylMFdixon, you’re saying that anyone could’ve made “12 Years A Slave”. I doubt that very much. Would anyone have held that shot of Solomon hanging from the tree for that long. Would anyone have made their audiences look at Solomon being beating with a plank of wood, pause for a second, and then make at them look at it all over again. How about that scene where Patsy gets raped by Epps? How about that beautiful cut to the title card when Solomon blows out the candle? The use of Hans Zimmer’s wonderful score. The contrast of cutting between horrific images of rape and torture with images of the beautiful nature of the south.
    “12 Years a Slave” is not my favorite film of the year. But to take away from the artistry of that film, just because you enjoy another film more is not cool. McQueen has a very specific type of aesthetic, and his finger prints were all over that film. Ditto Cuaron. Ditto Scorsese. Ditto Payne. Ditto Jonze. Ditto Greengrass.

  347. joeyhegele
    January 20, 2014

    “Anyway, I saw Gravity, and it still baffles me — what happened to Geo Clooney? Where did he go? Did he die? I walked out of that theater with him on my mind. And oh yeh, did the jets pick up Sandra?”
    –SallyinChicago

    *SPOILERS*

    Clooney’s fate baffles you? Really? Yes, he died. His suit ran out of oxygen and he died. His body probably just kept floating out into space.

    As for Bullock, I am not sure what jets you are referring to specifically, but I believe she landed somewhere in China. The Chinese capsule probably had a locator on it, and as she was coming in Mission Control (Ed Harris) basically said they were coming for her.

    I am not sure why these two things were such mysteries to you. Were you equally as confused about the fate of Kelly Macdonald’s character in No Country For Old Men? I mean we never actually see what happens to her. Are you still wondering about that, or did you figure out the most logical outcome without the movie specifically showing you?

    If there are any other plot points in great movies you are confused about, let me know. I am sure I, or someone else at AD, can help you out.

  348. joeyhegele
    January 20, 2014

    @Eric P.

    Your comments about McQueen’s contributions to 12 Years A Slave are wonderful. Since I have not read the screenplay, I am not sure what was already written and what McQueen specifically decided, but there were many great moments in that film that were quietly and hauntingly beautiful…even when they were depicting the worst parts of human nature.

    One of my favorite scenes was when Northup smashed his violin to pieces. I actually gasped because it seemed like it was Northup’s way of saying all hope had been lost. When he had the violin, it represented the most defining part of him as a free man and reminded him of the life he hoped to regain, and by destroying the instrument he was destroying that part of him that was not a slave. It was such a simple but powerful moment.

    Gravity, The Wolf Of Wall Street, and Her also had these types of moments that really stay with you. Some of them are simple while others a grand set pieces, but they all help their films transcend from good cinema to great cinema. Other films had great moments too, but these four films really blew me away with how overall great they were.

  349. Corvo
    January 20, 2014

    Every 12 years supporter is saying that an Oscar win would be so meaningful because of american history, racism issues etc. That’s politics. If McQueen wins, it’s a cultural win rather than an artistic one. Maybe the U.S. needs this kind of win to go forward as a country, ok, I understand that. But I’m a world citizen and when I talk about cinema I only care about cinema. To me Gravity is an artistic achievement far superior than 12 years a Slave.

  350. Simone
    January 20, 2014

    Ok, that explains a lot Corvo.

  351. Bryce Forestieri
    January 20, 2014

    Sondheim,

    Saw LOOKING. Liked it, but why does it have to look so much like WEEKEND. It’s distracting.

  352. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    “McQueen isn’t a very good director because his passage of time in 12YS was atrocious.”

    What is wrong with people bringing this up all the time?! The guy makes an artistic choice to try to underline how hopeless his character’s situation is by not clearly showing how much time has passed (which we already know by the end anyway, from the title, so it’s not essential), and how it all just seems like it will never end, like it’s eternal, and you all just assume he had no idea what he was doing. Did he start making movies yesterday?! Stop acting like such geniuses! The movie did NOT feel like it happened over a few months. YOU felt that way about it and that’s your problem…
    Not to mention the brilliant effect of making us wonder the whole movie when he’s going to get rescued. If McQueen had shown the year, at the end we would have instantly known for sure that that was when he would be freed. But, this way, it’s never certain and it could still turn out sourly, like the time he gave the letter to that white guy. Fassbender could get him back… It’s a great choice and builds up the tension and atmosphere wonderfully.

    “actually, based on protestations by rocket scientists, Cuaron didn’t do his homework quite thoroughly as there were several astrophysically impossible sequences in the movie”

    There you go! If you MUST find flaws, it’s easy to do so…

    “Corvo, why does politics come into play when you say 12YAS could win. Why can’t the film win on its own artistic merits like you designate to Gravity?
    I’m tired of such polarizing chatter, stop discounting 12YAS as if it were some Lifetime Sunday afternoon movie.”

    Thank you, Simone!

    “How can people STILL bring up Gravity’s lack of a SAG Ensemble nod?
    Don’t they understand WHY it didn’t get nominated?”

    OK, fine, I guess I need to just say “lack of an ensemble”, period, from now on, so that everybody understands what the problem actually is…

    “a split between the two most prestigious categories Best Picture & Director seems likely. If so, the only reasonable outcome is 12YAS for Picture and Gravity for Director, especially since the former is much more actor-friendly than the latter. Case closed.”

    Why? You really think American Hustle and Cuaron isn’t a split that could happen?…

    “If McQueen sneaked over him then 12 Years a Slave will have a slight edge”

    Considering how unexpected that would be, I think you actually mean “will be a near-lock” (at least against Gravity). I’m not counting on it, though – I’m happy with just the PGA for now. It’s enough to be in a good position, come Oscar night.

    “American Hustle is probably out of the race, at least when it comes to Picture and Director.”

    Not even remotely true… It IS an underdog now, though.

    “I still believe Hustle has a chance to win the biggest award regardless of its BD winning prospect (for now).”

    This instead.

  353. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    And how would that letter scene even have worked had the passage of time been made clear? Unless it somehow happened precisely in the last year of his slavery, which I don’t think is the case…

  354. Robert A.
    January 20, 2014

    “If politics prevails, 12 Years wins. If pure cinema prevails, Gravity wins.”

    Pretty lame argument, since it assumes that the only reason someone would vote for 12 Years is because they feel like they have to and not because they want to or because they feel it was the best film of the year. Which of course is completely absurd. I, for one, am a cinema lover, and would vote for 12 Years over Gravity.

    Here’s my best guess for the next few weeks:

    If David O. Russell somehow wins DGA, AH probably becomes the frontrunner for BP, regardless of BAFTA results. O. Russell seems doubtful, though, and I don’t see how AH could win otherwise.

    If Cuaron wins DGA, which seems the most likely scenario, then BAFTA becomes more key in sorting things out. If Gravity beats 12 Years at BAFTA, I think Gravity wins the BP Oscar.

    If McQueen wins DGA, 12 Years will most likely win BAFTA and the Oscar.

    My best guess: Cuaron wins DGA and 12 Years cleans up at BAFTA, leaving Oscar night a nail biter.

  355. Robert A.
    January 20, 2014

    @ Corvo

    A “cultural win” and an “artistic win,” as you call them, are not mutually exclusive, as you seem to be assuming. It’s possible that you could have a cultural win and an artistic win at the same time, which is, in my opinion, what 12 Years a Slave would be.

    Having breakthrough technology and state of the art special effects is not the only measure of a movie’s “artistry.”

    “To me Gravity is an artistic achievement far superior than 12 years a Slave.”

    “To me” being the key words there.

  356. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    I cannot post comments anymore… why?

  357. Kasia
    January 20, 2014

    Why is it all “politics vs. pure cinema” when it comes to 12YAS and Gravity? Why can’t a film about an important sociopolitical phenomenon, or even more so about one person’s unique story, be also a deeply cinematic experience? Or are we only supposed to cherish “pure cinema” as a form or a medium completely detached from our social existence? I don’t agree with this narrative. To me films can and should be made about anything and everything, and each of them can reach that point when the viewer feels like his reality and the reality of the film are, even if for a brief moment, one – that’s how I see “pure cinema”.

  358. Kasia
    January 20, 2014

    Huh, my comment seems to have appeared a bit later than I posted it… Anyway, I see some of you felt the same way ;)

  359. Robert A.
    January 20, 2014

    +1 for Kasia.

  360. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    “O. Russell seems doubtful, though, and I don’t see how AH could win otherwise.”

    Like Crash and Shakespeare in Love did… (which would mean a split)

    “Having breakthrough technology and state of the art special effects is not the only measure of a movie’s “artistry.””

    This.

  361. Felipe
    January 20, 2014

    One thing I learned over the years is that, anytime someone (particularly if it is a large organization) doesn’t align with my opinion, it’s for the wrong reasons and anytime someone does, it’s for the right reasons.

    Or so reading posts, columns and comments lead me to believe.

  362. Kasia
    January 20, 2014

    Also, is it somehow cool now to be “anti-political-correctness” or something? I definitely see it in my country. When people want to sound more independent or intelectual, they often mock something that I often see as an example of social awareness, and dismiss it as “political correctness”. As if they were saying: “look, I think for myself, I don’t buy into that bullshit, it’s ridiculous and absurd”. Somehow it’s cool now. I often wonder about that. Not saying that this is necessarily the case with 12YAS and Gravity all of the time, but sometimes I think it has something to do with it. Just an observation.

  363. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    Felipe – :).

    I was thinking: splits aren’t really THAT hard to predict. They almost always happen in very close races. The only exception since all three big guilds give out awards is Chicago in 2003 – Polanski is one of the biggest surprises in Academy Award history. The others:

    - In 1998 you had two very strong movies, Shakespeare in Love (SAG winner, no significant snubs) and Saving Private Ryan (DGA+PGA winner, no significant snubs) so, again, a close race.
    - In 2000 you had 3 different guild winners: Gladiator had only won the PGA (no other movie that didn’t win either the DGA or SAG has ever won the BP Oscar, except for Braveheart), Traffic had won the SAG (but had no PGA nomination) and Crouching Tiger… had no SAG or Golden Globe BP nominations.
    - In 2005 you had Crash (which had won the SAG but had no Golden Globe nomination) vs. Brokeback Mountain (PGA+DGA but no editing nomination), so clearly close.
    - The split last year was easy to predict and, besides, that one was also an unclear race, precisely due to the favorite not having a director nomination.

    People usually don’t get them right because they keep predicting them in years when there’s no real race – like the King’s Speech and Artist years, when there was really only one possible BP winner after the guilds.

    I think we can agree this year qualifies as a (very) close race and I think a split is quite likely. Since I also think Gravity is highly unlikely to win BP but not BD, it’ll probably be 12YAS/Cuaron or AH/Cuaron. No Gravity for BP…

  364. Free
    January 20, 2014

    I kinda hope they tie for Best Picture on Oscar night, too. I’d really LOVE it if American Hustle went 0-for-10.

  365. SallyinChicago
    January 20, 2014

    @Joey: Sandra landed on land, but whose land? Was it the U.S. or China – I thought it was the U.S., thus when the jets flew by.

    As for Clooney floating away in space, I was just stating that scene of him floating away was haunting to me. I kept wondering if he died or did he fall from space into another planet? Sorry I’m not as scientific-minded as you are.

  366. Raphael
    January 20, 2014

    If The Wolf of Wall Street is going to loose, i prefer that loses to 12 years a Slave

  367. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    @Claudiu

    “In 2005 you had Crash (which had won the SAG but had no Golden Globe nomination) vs. Brokeback Mountain (PGA+DGA but no editing nomination), so clearly close”

    SO CLOSE????

    come on!!!!

    Brokeback Mountain won dozens of awards during the awards season that year!!!!

    Jack Nicholson face while he was opening the envelope expressed just how close was that race!!!

  368. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    Then why were Ebert and others predicting it? Why has no movie won BP without a Best Editing nomination since 1981?

    And do you really need me to tell you how incredibly unimportant critics awards and Globes and BAFTAs are for predicting the BP Oscar, compared to the guilds and Oscar nominations? Remember The Social Network? Do I REALLY need to cite the many other counterexamples to your weak argument?

    Sure, most people (who didn’t have a clue) thought BBM was some kind of lock or something, but the experts were quite torn. Many were predicting Crash after the SAG win and, obviously, rightly so. The fact alone that it won should tell you something about how close the race was, if all of the rock-solid statistical facts I just presented weren’t enough to persuade you.

    I should be the one saying “come on!!!!”…

  369. Patrick
    January 20, 2014

    Claudiu Dobre, why would the “lack of an ensemble” hinder Gravity’s chances? You think actors watch the movie and say “Oh no, too few people, I won’t put this down for best picture”? That’s nonsense. I suppose VFX artists won’t vote for 12YAS because it’s not VFX-heavy, right?

  370. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    Yes. Yes they do… They do EXACTLY that – though maybe subconsciously. It’s historically proven. Why else has no movie not nominated for SAG Ensemble except Braveheart won Best Picture? No Avatar, no Life of Pi etc.

  371. Zooey
    January 20, 2014

    Gravity won’t win best picture. It could win directing, but it won’t win picture.

    And every time I read a statement that best actress is Blanchett vs. Bullock, I feel the urge to laugh out loud. Best Actress is no race. It’s Blanchett’s to lose and my guess is that Bullock won’t even come in second. Dench could. But even then, it’s not a race. It’s Blanchett and Bullock has NO shot at all.

  372. Daniel
    January 20, 2014

    “I kinda hope they tie for Best Picture on Oscar night, too. I’d really LOVE it if American Hustle went 0-for-10.”

    In fact, that’s what I am currently predicting. I just worry about them THROWING best original screenplay to David O. Russel since AH won’t win any other importany one (what would be a crime, considering that’s Spike Jonze’s to lose)

  373. Corvo
    January 20, 2014

    There is always a prejudice against movies which don’t deal with the biggest issues of our times (not directly, because every artwork is an expression of our times). Gravity (and not only Gravity: every genre movie) is perceived as not heavy enough, not important enough to be awarded over a clearly explanatory lesson like 12 years a Slave. This way of thinking reveals a misinterpretation of cinematographic art. Cinema is not about WHAT, it’s about HOW. The dimension of art is beauty, not sense.

  374. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    rock-solid statistical fact:
    - DGA predicted the Oscar for Best Picture 9 times during the last 10 years. Only exception Brokeback Mountain.
    - No film EVER won that many awards before Oscar night and then went home without BP.

    We all know that that year inside the academy something happened in relation to the fact that BBM was more than a front runner.
    The President of the Academy even said they were receiving a lot of letters against the film even being nominated. A group of famous members openly said they refused to see the movie and lobbied hard to hurt its chances.

    In that case it was not a close race, it was a shameful boycott.

  375. Kasia
    January 20, 2014

    “Cinema is not about WHAT, it’s about HOW.” That’s an interesting point. However, to me that’s too general statement. Yes, it does have interesting radical implications, but nonetheless ;) I can only speak for myself, because I’m no art critic, but I fully support the diversity of art. Sometimes I want to look at Rothko’s paintings, but sometimes I need to see a Rembrandt. It’s that simple with me. Same with cinema. That’ where we come to a point where giving awards for any kind of art is just arbitrary.

  376. SallyinChicago
    January 20, 2014

    I want to start a campaign right now. That this thread start with the latest comment instead of the earliest comment. We have to spend time scrolling through 200 comments which is annoying.

  377. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    Corvo,

    I completely agree with you.

  378. Patrick
    January 20, 2014

    “Why else has no movie not nominated for SAG Ensemble except Braveheart won Best Picture? No Avatar, no Life of Pi etc.” – Claudiu Dobre

    Now you’re back to the “lack of a SAG ensemble” argument. Neither Avatar nor Life of Pi received any acting nominations from SAG or AMPAS. Gravity did. If the actors didn’t pick Avatar or Life of Pi, it wasn’t for lack of an ensemble, it was because they thought the acting in other films was better. Sure Gravity lacks an ensemble, but Bullock’s nomination is a clear indication that people thought the acting was excellent.

  379. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    SallyinChicago,

    sorry but it takes 2 seconds to scroll to the end of the page… what is the problem?

  380. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    The only leading Actor in Gravity is Bullock and she was nominated for a SAG in the Best Actress category. She would have been the only actor (or maybe Clooney too) officially listed in the ensemble category…

    So, to all the people that keep saying Gravity didn’t have a SAG ensemble nom: HOW was that a possibility??
    An ensemble nomination with one leading actor and a performance which is more a cameo by a super star?

  381. Free
    January 20, 2014

    @Daniel:

    Christ, I hope they don’t! I’m seeing a lot of people predicting AH could take Costume Design, which I hope goes to The Great Gatsby (I actually think Catherine Martin will pull a second Moulin Rouge and win both Production Design and Costumes again, as she should).

  382. John C.
    January 20, 2014

    Gawdamn what an exciting year. 12YAS solidifies its spot as frontrunner. Gravity with the late underdog surge to become the dark horse. It’s officially a 2 horse race now. AH is out for Best Picture IMO.

    As I’ve predicted from the start, it’s going to be 12YAS Best Picture, Cuaron Best Director. An easy outcome to foresee for a long time now.

  383. Jesus Alonso
    January 20, 2014

    I just have to smile at the naiveness of many. These are the Oscars, for God’s sake. They do as they please. They got Crash instead of Brokeback Mountain. They snubbed Lauren Bacall, they gave TWO to Hillary Swank in front of Annette Benning. They gave back to back Oscars to Tom Hanks. In the end, this is an award ultimately ruled by the acting branch. That makes American Hustle a threat, by default.

    … and 12 Years a Slave might be a great film, an important film, but Schindler’s List ain’t, and with that I mean, it is not the film the Academy HAS to multiaward to avoid backslash (re: The Color Purple).

    While Cuaron seems a safe bet for Directing, I think we’re just overlooking the obvious, American Hustle has grown stronger and stronger and nailed his “MUST” wins: 3 GG and the SAG Ensemble. “12 Years a Slave” got the GG and that’s it, had even to share the PGA with Gravity, which was 3rd in the race. As I say, DGA will probably mark the fate… if Cuaron wins, we have the same elements of jugdement and probably it’s a tight fight between “12″ and “Hustle”. If McQueen or Russell win, then, it’s game, set and match for any of them. Remember, “American Hustle” GOT the compulsory Film Editing nom, over more obvious candidates, specially “The Wolf of Wall Street”.

  384. Gregoire
    January 20, 2014

    Why does this solidify 12YAS spot as a frontrunner. If anything, this weakens it. There would be no need for a tie if it were so strong a film.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 20, 2014

      ya, it always weakens a film to win the PGA. There wasn’t a “need” for a tie. It just happened.

      jeez, nobody recalls 24 hours ago, when all the pundits were saying “hurry up, PGA. and just get it over with, give it to American Hustle so we can all get comfortable with the inevitable Actor’s Circus Showcase steamroller?”

  385. Pierre de Plume
    January 20, 2014

    A few days ago everyone was saying “It’s all about the PGA,” but now “It’s all about the DGA.” Or BAFTA.

    Whew.

    My view is that Gravity won’t win the Oscar. I see it in a position similar to Life of Pi. One day a tech-heavy film with few actors may win best picture, but the actors branch will need to be onboard.

    The nitty gritty of this is what are the Oscar voters doing when sitting at Academy screenings or sitting at home watching their screeners? I’m talking about the series of whippings and beatings in 12 Years a Slave. True – Schindler’s List survived this test, but in the minds of Oscar voters, the Holocaust, I think, hits closer to home (right or wrong) than the slavery issue.

    I won’t make a final prediction just yet, but I still think American Hustle is very much in this race as the compromise alternative with enough #1 votes – and, importantly, enough #2 or #3 votes – to win. It wouldn’t need to win in very many categories to do this just as Argo and The King’s Speech didn’t. Again, I’m not calling it, but in a preferential system 12 Years may be too polarizing.

  386. Jerry Grant
    January 20, 2014

    Here’s my voice in this:

    American Hustle is not in this race for the big win. It’s is clearly at #3. I’ve been saying this for a while, and my reasons have stayed the same. It’s not the kind of movie people put at #1 for the year. It’s a movie they give tons of nominations, and they like a lot. Let’s stop pretending it’s the big bad wolf–of course it won SAG ensemble (it is the best ensemble of the year), and of course it won Golden Globes-Comedy.

    I have been confident 12 Years has this, and now Gravity shows itself as a serious #2 contender. That will become even closer if and when Cuaron wins DGA. Which is awesome. But my prediction will still be on 12 Years for the win.

    Why?

    To voters’ minds, Gravity needs to be awarded and deserves to be. But “Best Picture”? Voters like a script AND a directorial feat for best picture–and the script isn’t really there for voters. It’s a visual feat. (Remember when they didn’t award Avatar?) Further, and perhaps more importantly, awarding 12 Years a Slave–perhaps THE critics’ choice of the year, mind you–is making history. It is an actors’ ensemble. It is emotional to the max. It not only has a screenplay nomination, it will probably win screenplay. Actor and Supporting Actress are serious contenders to win. THAT, my friends, is the winning movie at the end of the day.

    That said, Gravity is a serious threat for Picture, and I’m sorry to stupidly predict a split, but if ever a director deserves a win without a Best Picture win, it’s Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity.

    Best Picture- 12 Years a Slave
    Best Director- Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
    Best Actor- Matthew McConaughey
    Best Actress- Cate Blanchett
    Best Supp. Actor- Jared Leto
    Best Supp. Actress- Lupita Nyong’o
    Best Orig. Screenplay- American Hustle
    Best Adap. Screenplay- 12 Years a Slave

  387. Jeremy
    January 20, 2014

    Well, I said the PGA would decide all, then they had to go and pull this shit.

    Well, I guess the DGA will be very interesting, won’t it?

  388. Bob Burns
    January 20, 2014

    one thing this means is that a lot of Academy members will watch 12 Years and Gravity, maybe for the first time….. they could receive some unexpected Oscars for these films because of last night…. Production Design, for example…. even an upset in one of the acting categories.

  389. Zach
    January 20, 2014

    Gravity is STILL an unlikely choice for Best Picture. But I’m starting to wonder. Had 12 Years a Slave won the SAG, we’d say it’s probably all over, except that maybe Cuaron could still win the DGA and Oscar. But so far, the one major guild Gravity wasn’t up for went to Hustle, not Slave. The point is that Slave has won every “Best Picture” award but among the guilds, it will have some of the writers (others will go for Her and Hustle). Slave will have half the producers, Gravity the other half, plus maybe the directors and all the techs. Hustle has the actors. If we rule out Hustle, this becomes a question of the tech branches and maybe directors vs. the writers and actors, all of whom are split anyway (with the actors more for Hustle). Are there enough tech voters and presumably directors to counteract the writers and actors pushing Slave? Do Gravity’s director and tech fans counteract its lack of a writing nomination and the acting support for the other films?

  390. Pierre de Plume
    January 20, 2014

    I hope you’re right, Jerry Grant. I just keep thinking how The Social Network lost to the enjoyable The King’s Speech. And how the non-Big Bad Wolf Argo won because it was more palatable to more people than its competition. Let’s face it – 12 Years is a tough sit.

    I’ll be interested to see how the narrative unfolds in the coming weeks – whether there’s any so-called dirty pool and which film will benefit/suffer from the inevitable media discourse.

  391. Jerry Grant
    January 20, 2014

    “Hustle has the actors.”
    ^That’s very reductive. Actors decided AH had best _ensemble_, but not that it’s the best film. Actors, of course, vote for all movies. If it came to “Best Film,” my guess is their votes would be distributed, but that the plurality would go to 12 Years, like for the other voting organizations.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 20, 2014

      “Hustle has the actors.”

      I need to watch these movies again. I thought ALL the Best Picture nominees had actors in them.

  392. Simone
    January 20, 2014

    @SallyinChicago,

    I don’t work for NASA, but the sci-fi nerd in me speculates that Clooney’s character ran out of oxygen moments after he told Sandra’s character to get back to the ship. He died and his body floated off into the vast blackness of the infinite outer space.

  393. Alper
    January 20, 2014

    I think American Hustle will win Best Picture. Gravity will win technical awards. (cinematography visual effects etc..)

  394. Buford T Justice
    January 20, 2014

    It seems to me that there was no exact tie but just close enough that they could not call it for one or the other without giving a false sense of victory …it needed to be called a tie so folks would not put too much faith in it’s victory or be too pessimistic in defeat

  395. Buford T Justice
    January 20, 2014

    I want 12 YAS to win but it just seems like a difficult climb for it if/when CUARON wins DGA…I mean , Gravity already has about 5-6 tech oscars in the bag ….so OK , 12 YAS sweeps BAFTA and maybe even Mcqueen wins BD at BAFTA , but there is poor correlation between BP winner at BAFTA and OSCAR and so I just don’t think it will influence the race very much

    I could very well be wrong , after all it was I who was predicting that AH would checkmate last night

  396. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    The thing SAG told us is American Hustle has more support from actors than 12 Years a Slave.

    But Gravity was not a player in that game. So, we cannot know how many actors, who are both Academy and SAG members, will vote for Gravity as Best Picture at the Oscars. When they have to consider Best Picture and not best ensemble cast it’s a plausible possibility some of them will vote differently, or not?

  397. Robert A.
    January 20, 2014

    “Again, I’m not calling it, but in a preferential system 12 Years may be too polarizing.”

    But PGA is a preferential ballot, so we now have concrete evidence that 12 Years and Gravity perform well with a preferential ballot. We don’t have that same concrete evidence regarding AH.

  398. steve50
    January 20, 2014

    The fact that there have been so many splits between director and film so far and the fact the PGA can’t decide on a single film tells me that Cuaron is likely to take BD, but that BP is still wide open and we are likely heading for a split with Oscar.

    It’s totally feasible that this year voters will deliberately select different films for BD and BD. Only a win by either McQueen or Russell at the DGA will change that, and I doubt that will happen.

    I still don’t see Gravity being selected BP by the Oscar voter demographic.

  399. Robert A.
    January 20, 2014

    “The thing SAG told us is American Hustle has more support from actors than 12 Years a Slave.”

    Not really. Each won one award from SAG. If SAG hugely preferred AH to 12 Years a Slave, wouldn’t Jennifer Lawrence have won supporting actress? My guess is that the vote for both supporting actress and ensemble were probably relatively close. No way of knowing that, of course.

  400. Sammy
    January 20, 2014

    Robert A. – BAFTA will have very little to no influence this year. They predicted terribly wrong and put themselves in a nasty position. Just look at this:

    Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 11 (Eleven) Academy Award Nominations

    Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 0 (Zero) BAFTA Award Nominations

  401. Jeremy
    January 20, 2014

    The truth is the “race” is probably closer to what it was back in November, cept without Oprah and Matthew rising. Apparently SAG favored the more actor friendly film, PGA the more producer-savvy. Everyone look shocked! This changes everything!

    I think its in our nature to pretend the race is more in flux than it actually is. We sit and look at the results and study past precedence and try to find narratives, but honestly…its probably not as wild as you think it is.

  402. Buford T Justice
    January 20, 2014

    In a final showdown between GRAVITY and 12YAS the producers vote will split , the directors go to CUARON and the techs votes go to Gravity …the actors need to go to 12 YAS …..HOWEVER , it’s a THREE HORSE RACE , NOT TWO and so many of those actors votes may well go to American Hustle instead , or just enough to cripple the chances for 12 YAS ….this could be the scenario that pushes Gravity over the edge to victory …..I could very well be wrong in my assumptions and hope I am

  403. Pierre de Plume
    January 20, 2014

    Mi>But PGA is a preferential ballot, so we now have concrete evidence that 12 Years and Gravity perform well with a preferential ballot. We don’t have that same concrete evidence regarding AH.

    Robert A — The preferential ballot result – of producers – didn’t reveal how far behind AH stands. We may not have preferential data from the actors but we do have SAG results.

    We’re all just guessing in the wind at this point. DGA may help us figure this out, but then again it may not. For my part I’ll be looking more closely for any telling trends across all the guilds – not just DGA and WGA.

  404. Bryce Forestieri
    January 20, 2014

    I can’t really decide wether I want GRAVITY to win or not.

    I DO: Because I would be very happy for Cuaron, Lubezki, Bullock and everyone else involved who did an amazing job in every possibly imaginable way. And it’s my favorite film of the year. It’s happened before so it’s not like I’d be crushed (NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN + THE HURT LOCKER). Oscar has been too to me –not so recently though.

    I DON’T: Because I foresee the mean swift backlash from all quarters. Also, Cuaron will probably be nominated again so there’s that. Maybe his next effort will be embraced by the intellectual elites and not just by the people.

  405. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    Bryce,

    people hate on winners, it is a fact unfortunately. Backlash will come to whatever film wins.

    I think we are lucky this year, the 9 films selected are all very good films. I’m fine with every outcome even if Gravity is my favorite.

  406. joe
    January 20, 2014

    Gravity is dwfinitely winning best picture. Definitely a game changing movie like lotr or avatar

  407. Sammy
    January 20, 2014

    Akumax – I think this is the strongest BP field after the expansion in 2009.
    Just look at the below left out list. I wrote some of them. Incredible…

    Inside Llewyn Davis
    Blue Jasmine
    Before Midnight
    Frances Ha
    Blue is the Warmest Color

  408. Marcus Perriello
    January 20, 2014

    I happen to agree, somewhat, that ‘American Hustle’ may be dropping in the polls with voters. ’12 Years a Slave’ has had early momentum and has managed to take about half of the Critics circuit’s Best Picture awards. But again, that’s only HALF. Usually, that’s more than sufficient to suggest it will win at the Oscars. But lately, especially after this PGA shocker, ‘Gravity’ could very well be the ‘Crash’ of 2013. I wouldn’t disagree with it winning Best Picture. All the films in this year’s Best Picture category are well deserving of their nominations. Here’s how it looks right now from my point of view:

    BEST PICTURE: 12 Years a Slave / Gravity (toss-up)
    BEST DIRECTOR: Alfonso Cauron – Gravity
    BEST ACTOR: Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
    BEST ACTRESS: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Spike Jonze – Her
    BEST ANIMATED FEATURE: Frozen
    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The Great Beauty (Italy)
    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Emmanuel Lubezski – Gravity
    BEST COSTUME DESIGN – The Great Gatsby
    BEST FILM EDITING: Gravity
    BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING: Dallas Buyers Club
    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Gravity / Her (toss-up)
    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: ‘Let It Go’ – Frozen
    BEST SOUND EDITING: Gravity / Captain Phillips (toss-up)
    BEST SOUND MIXING: Gravity / Captain Phillips (toss-up)
    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Gravity

    Based on ‘Gravity’ being the front-runner in a majority of award categories, one could reason that it might do the unthinkable and upset 12 YAS for Best Picture. Not only is it a highly-advanced technical marvel, it is also emotionally gripping and very human. Even though there’s three actors on screen in the whole movie, that doesn’t take away from the effect it’s had on critics and audiences. While I still believe that ’12 Years a Slave’ has the edge, it is entirely possible we could be in for one of the biggest shockers in Oscar history.

  409. Zach
    January 20, 2014

    I say Hustle has the actors because in recent years SAG has voted for the Best Picture rather than the best ensemble. Argo and Slumdog especially. So if they really like Slave, they could’ve given it Best Ensemble. However, again Best Picture is a preferential ballot, so if Hustle is really out of it, then its votes don’t get thrown away, but probably eventually find their way to Slave. Or maybe not. Maybe Hustle fans want something pleasant to watch and prefer Gravity. But at any rate, I don’t think Hustle is out of it.

  410. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    I mean, Akumax, I never said Crash was the favorite (even though it really kind of was, but OK, you can have that one if you can’t accept rational arguments), but to think there wasn’t a close race when the frontrunner hadn’t won all three guilds and wasn’t nominated for Editing is just dumb – there, I said it.
    DGA has predicted 9 out of the last 10… Big deal! Editing nom vs. no editing nom has predicted 10 out of 10 (as in nobody has won without it), in fact 32 out of the last 32 years… Wow, you really got me there!…
    I’m getting tired of combating shoddy statistical arguments over and over again. Please, people, check your stats before declaring my conclusions wrong… Also – you just said yourself there was OPEN backlash against BBM, as in everybody knew about it. That alone is an argument for it having been a close race.

    Jerry – OK, so they won’t put it 1st a lot, but they might just put it 2nd enough times, and if Gravity and Slave are divisive enough, that simply means it wins.

  411. Yvette
    January 20, 2014

    (Sammy)
    ‘BAFTA will have very little to no influence this year. They predicted terribly wrong and put themselves in a nasty position. Just look at this:

    Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 11 (Eleven) Academy Award Nominations

    Her + Dallas Buyers Club = 0 (Zero) BAFTA Award Nominations’

    Lincoln barely existed to the Baftas. And why they have no credibility to me.

  412. Gail Withers
    January 20, 2014

    Just came back from a dinner party with another trained psychic- Judy Bivens. She’s AMAZING! She’s 67, talks like Lucille Ball and sometimes even dyes her hair red (wink)- and she also knows her Vodkas; we had a cold bottle of Grey tonight, over chilled sprite and lot’s of ice.

    Judy was saying (and I’ll post her readings for the winners below)- that this year will cause a lot of anguish and surprises; two acting winners will be very unexpected. She says that the only certain winner is Cate Blanchett. She says she often channels Academy members inner-thoughts, and that even Academy President Cheryl Boone communicated that Blanchett will win with over 80% of the votes.

    Judy says Best Picture will make a lot of people mad. Some will agree, but that the boards on AwardsDaily and Goldderby will temporarily shut down because of protest and political outcry. Not necessarily because of the film selected, but because how another film just looked so close but couldn’t do it. She says it will be Crash/Brokeback Mountain all over again. Mind you, we had drank about four glasses of Grey already, but this is when psychics are at their most substantial.

    Below are Judy Biven’s Psychic Readings for the 2014 Academy Award Winners:

    Original Screenplay: Her, Spike Jonze
    Adapted Screenplay: 12 Years a Slave, John Ridley
    Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
    Supporting Actor: Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
    Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
    Actor: Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
    Director: Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
    Picture: American Hustle

  413. Zach
    January 20, 2014

    LOL she crazy. If Chiwetel wins on Oscar night, you just know that the film AND McQueen are winning too. You just know.

  414. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    Oh, not to mention that your DGA stat is actually moronic, if you think about it – we’re talking about who was the favorite AT THE TIME, obviously, and the DGA and BP Oscar had only matched 5 out of the previous 7 years prior to the Crash year (exceptions: Shakespeare in Love and Gladiator). That is, in fact, the relevant stat, and it’s less than 75% of the time (even if you add 3 more years, going back to the first SAG year, you still only get 80%). Is that seriously what you’re going to throw at me?! Do you seriously think we’re ever working with any stat under 90% when predicting a BP lock? You’re out of your mind! The Editing stat I mentioned is so much more relevant than your pathetic DGA stat it’s not even funny… Especially now that Crash has also done it.

    And no movie had ever won that many awards and lost BP before – please!… Apart from the SAG, DGA and PGA (and, if those three don’t go to the same movie, only then the BFCA, Globes and maybe BAFTAs, but those really only help point you in the right direction, they never decide a clear favorite on their own), absolutely no other award is of any relevance whatsoever. But, please, feel free to try and prove to me how good critics’ awards are at predicting Best Picture…

    Your claim that Brokeback Mountain vs. Crash wasn’t a close race is simply ignorant and bordering on delusional.

  415. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    Gravity is the film nominated by most branches within the academy this year.
    Gravity is a box office huge hit
    Gravity has most nominations (tie with American Hustle)
    Gravity won PGA
    Even when his film doesn’t win Best Picture Cuaron wins Best Director. (GG and Critics Choice)

    These are facts that, in my opinion, show how much Gravity is widely liked by the industry; it is the most popular and the less divisive picture among the 3 leading this years Oscar nomination.

  416. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    “What is wrong with people bringing this up all the time?! The guy makes an artistic choice to try to underline how hopeless his character’s situation is by not clearly showing how much time has passed (which we already know by the end anyway, from the title, so it’s not essential), and how it all just seems like it will never end, like it’s eternal”

    If I know it’s 12 years and when I see the movie it feels like a few months it is a screenwriter and director problem. It didn’t resonate has “it will never end” at all, to me and to a lot of people i’ve been talking to.

    If it is an artistic choice I can say that in my opinion it’s not a good one.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 20, 2014

      If I know it’s 12 years and when I see the movie it feels like a few months it is a screenwriter and director problem.

      Just so long as you realize this is not a issue that thousands and thousands of other people perceived as a problem.

      So perhaps if I felt the passage of time and the producers guild felt the passage of time, and 30 major critics gave the movie a score of 100 (which pretty much means “perfect”) them maybe it’s not a screenwriter problem or a director problem. Maybe it’s a problem unique to relatively few viewers.

  417. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    And Patrick – I can’t keep pointing out the same error in logic time and time again. You can keep thinking the lack of a SAG Ensemble nomination isn’t relevant for movies like Gravity if you want – I’ll let somebody else explain to you why that’s not how it works and, if they don’t, whatever… I’ve done it too many times this year and I’m sick of it!

  418. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    “If I know it’s 12 years and when I see the movie it feels like a few months it is a screenwriter and director problem. It didn’t resonate has “it will never end” at all, to me and to a lot of people i’ve been talking to.
    If it is an artistic choice I can say that in my opinion it’s not a good one.”

    Well, now you’re finally being fair. That’s exactly what it is. Not a mistake just because you say it is. It’s a choice that works fantastically well for a lot of people (like me and the many others here and in the Academy and other groups that have given it Best Picture in such a strong year) and not at all for others (like you and your friends – you add your own examples of other people it didn’t work for). Who knows who’s right, if anyone?!… But acting like it’s an undeniable “goof” or something is just wrong.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 20, 2014

      one horrifying indicator of the passage of time to me is to see how strong, fresh and perfectly healthy Patsey looks when we first meet her — but over the course of the movie she’s gradually damaged and beaten down to human wreckage.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 20, 2014

      Can I ask a favor of everyone?
      We’ll all have some heated arguments over the next few weeks, but let’s try to keep name-calling and personal insults out of the discussion pages, alright?

  419. Akumax
    January 20, 2014

    Claudiu,

    thank you for your kind insults.

    My moronic argument is to consider the whole awards season as “the race”, Brokeback Mountain dominated that awards season from day one till that last infamous envelope. So the race wasn’t close, it was an upset that surprised everybody.

    I don’t understand what you consider the close race, because neither you nor me can now how many votes made Crash won.

    How do you know it was close?

    Anyway, I don’t want to spend time talking about 2005 2006, I only have the feeling (I’m usually wrong) that sometime it’s statistics according to an agenda and not statistic tout court.

  420. Zach M.
    January 20, 2014

    And this race just got a *hell* of a lot more interesting. :D So happy after a very disappointingly predictable last several years.

    I still have a feeling Cuaron will take the DGA, and I personally kinda hope he does, but even if he does, I still think 12 Years has a fighting chance for Best Picture.

    And I kinda get the feeling this one hurt American Hustle a little bit, which I’m all for. I consider AH a frontrunner in the race, but I genuinely don’t believe it’s BP Winner material.

  421. Claudiu Dobre
    January 20, 2014

    OK, Ryan and Akumax. I apologize! I don’t like fighting any more than you guys do.
    But I just hate it when people produce “manufactured” stats and use them to try and show everybody how wrong I was about something…
    Plus, today has been kind of hectic for me, with my mom coming over and my finding out a good friend’s father just died. I wasn’t in a particularly peaceful mood. It’s not an excuse (I’ve already sincerely apologized for the insults, which were uncalled for), it’s an explanation.

    “I don’t understand what you consider the close race, because neither you nor me can now how many votes made Crash won.
    How do you know it was close?”

    Really? Then how do YOU know it WASN’T? This isn’t court – I don’t have to prove you wrong any more than you have to prove me wrong. So this is, in fact, a non-argument.
    And it’s certainly not an argument for BBM being the favorite, I hope you realize that. If we’re talking final votes tally as evidence of somebody being the favorite (which makes no sense anyway), then Crash obviously had more, since it won.

    “it was an upset that surprised everybody.”

    I’m glad you know everybody and what they were thinking in 2006… :) I happen to know TONS of people (on IMDb and not only) who thought Crash was going to win.

  422. joe
    January 21, 2014

    New predictions
    Best picture: gravity
    best director: alfonso cuaron for gravity
    Actor: matthew mcgouahney for dallas buyers club
    actress: cate blanchett for blue jasmine
    supporting actor: jared leto for dallas buyers club
    supporting actress: lupita nyongo for 12 years of a slave
    Original screenplay: her
    adapted screenplay: 12 years of a slave
    film editing: gravity
    art direction: gravity
    Costume design: the greatgatsby
    Sound mixing: gravity
    Sound editing: gravity
    cinematography: gravity
    Visual effects: the hobbit: the desolation of smaug
    original score: steven price for gravity
    original song: ordinary love from mandela long walk to freedom
    Animated feature: frozen
    Documentary feature: 20000 feet from stardon
    documentary short sybject: cave digger
    Animated short film: get a horse
    Live action short film: the voorman problem

  423. Akumax
    January 21, 2014

    Claudiu don’t worry, I don’t mind being called a delusional moron.

    I expressed my point: the award season IS the race in my opinion, so the race wasn’t close simply because we know for a fact that BBM won everything and Crash nothing but SAG. You called it a close race but in my opinion you failed to explain why and how. If your argument is if you win SAG then no matter what it’s a close race I simply don’t agree.

    Anyway, my point of view don’t seem to come across very well to you so I say let’s call it a day.

  424. Claudiu Dobre
    January 21, 2014

    If you win SAG and your opponent fails to get an editing nomination then yes, AUTOMATICALLY it’s a close race in my opinion (since nobody has won without that nomination since 1981), because it’s inherently quite unpredictable. Two powerful stats (winning almost every BP award vs. no editing nom) are clashing. To me the editing stat is stronger, but I don’t feel like searching through the history of every critics’ award for every year to prove it – mainly because I’m quite sure as it is. You are, however, welcome to do so yourself in trying to prove the opposite.

    And, trust me, I understand everything you said quite well. But yeah, you just don’t agree with my assertion above, and it’s fine. You think Globes and BAFTA’s and critics’ awards (which have far poorer BP-matching records), if won in large enough quantities :), can matter more than the lack of an editing nomination; I think probably not, and surely they can’t make it irrelevant enough to ever make the no-editing movie a lock.
    We probably can’t take it any further, because there’s no way for either of us to prove the other wrong. But if you think you can do that, using stats and facts, then I hope you do, because I definitely don’t want to be wrong and not know it!

    Hope now you won’t accuse me of not explaining myself properly, though. I can’t make the argument any clearer than that…

  425. ObamaWins
    February 13, 2014

    Joe, you have a lot of wishful thinking going.

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