There seem to be three things that drive the actors to choose performances for the SAG awards, which will announce tomorrow bright and early, 6am Pacific – Performance, popularity, notoriety/reputation. The big question for tomorrow will be whether voters will choose some of the wild cars that haven’t been showing up lately – Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, specifically, but also Woody Harrelson in Rampart, Kevin Spacey in Margin Call, Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene, and on and on or whether they will stick fairly close to what we’ve been seeing. Extremely Loud and Dragon Tattoo remain the unknown factor in all respects.
Either way, I feel like I’m more in the dark this year about what they’d choose than I ever have been. Since so many movies opened late you have to wonder how it will all shake down. Will this be a year when Oscar and SAG match up well? Or will this be a year when they don’t?
Before it gets too late I suppose I’ll try to predict how it will go. I start with what I know for sure and work my way down. But I do remember that there is an aspect to the SAG Awards that’s like the BFCAs, the Globes and the Oscars: they like pretty people on their red carpets and coming to their show.
So herewith, my predictions–
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Alt: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs (I think the actors will get it)
Viola Davis, The Help
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Alt: Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks, Drive
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Jonah Hill, Moneyball
Alt. Brad Pitt, Tree of Life
Best Supporting Actress
Jessica Chastain, Tree of Life
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Sandra Bullock, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Alt. Judi Dench, J. Edgar
Ensemble
The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
J. Edgar
The Descendants
Alt: Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
If course, I want to also add Coriolanus, Tree of Life, Harry Potter, My Week with Marilyn, Bridesmaids all as possible ensemble nods.
I am just not really getting a clear read on anything right now in the race. But the picture should be somewhat clearer after this week.
I mean is HP 8 only recognized to the Academy for only Tech stuff?!
“If course, I want to also add Coriolanus, Tree of Life, Harry Potter, My Week with Marilyn, Bridesmaids all as possible ensemble nods” Finally, someone from the Academy gives Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 a nod.
I mean what does the Academy has against HP8, I mean the Satellite Awards, Washingington D.C. Area Film Critics Association, New York Film Critics Online, Newy York FIlm Critics Circle Awards, Houston Film Critics Society, European Film Awards (which really confused me), Detroit FIlm Critics Society, Boston Society of FIlm Critics Award, San Diego Film Critics Society Awards, St. Louis Gateway FIlm Critics Association Awards.
The film set the record for fastest-selling pre-order DVD and Blu-ray on Amazon.com, just two days into the pre-order period, the highest grossing film of the year, broke alot of box office records not only in America but around the world, the most anticipated film of the year, the film received a score of 93 from professional critics at the Broadcast Film Critics Association, and Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows – Part 2 received universal critical acclaim.
An e-mail I got:
Dear SAG Nominating Committee Member,
We want to take this opportunity to thank you for participating in the nominations voting for the 18th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards. With dozens of screenings, Q&As and DVD mailings we know you have been busy. Your vote is very important to us and we appreciate your time and effort.
Nominations will be announced tomorrow – Wednesday, December 14th at 6:00am PT. Watch the live broadcast on TNT or streaming at TNT.tv. Stunt honors will be announced at 5:50am PT and streamed live on TNT.tv. A complete list of our nominees will be available at http://www.sagawards.org.
Also, just a reminder that your November 2011 dues must be paid by December 16th in order to be eligible to vote for the recipients of this year’s show. Final ballot information will be mailed via postcard on December 30th with directions on how to vote online as well as details on any For Your Consideration offers from the studios. Any member who would like to request a paper ballot (in lieu of online voting) may do so by calling (877) 610-8637. Please have your SAG ID number ready when calling.
The 18th Annual SAG Awards will be simulcast live on TNT and TBS Sunday, January 29, 2012 – We hope you will watch!
I think “Beginners” is being underrated, it’s the kind of small actors movie that got out early that this group may respond well to ala “The Station Agent”. I think ensemble and even Laurent are possibilities.
Are the nominations coming out tonight? Does anyone have a link to view it online for US outsiders? Thanks!
My predictions:
BEST ACTOR
George Clooney (The Descendants)
Jean Dujardin (The Artist)
Michael Fassbender (Shame)
Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy)
Brad Pitt (Moneyball)
BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs)
Viola Davis (The Help)
Elizabeth Olsen (Martha Marcy May Marlene)
Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady)
Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)
BEST SUPP. ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn)
Albert Brooks (Drive)
Armie Hammer (J. Edgar)
Ben Kingsley (Hugo)
Christopher Plummer (Beginners)
BEST SUPP. ACTRESS
Jessica Chastain (The Help)
Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids)
Vanessa Redgrave (Coriolanus)
Octavia Spencer (The Help)
Shailene Woodley (The Descendants)
BEST ENSEMBLE ACTING
The Artist
Beginners
Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Help
Gary Oldman, Glenn Close, Christopher Plummer and Vanessa Redgrave must be nominated this year!
If Oldman & Redgrave are snubbed here, something is definitely wrong. I don’t even know anymore what Oldman has to do to get recognized. His movie is the best reviewed on Metacritic, he got raves reviews, he is crazily overdue, and the movie was a commercial success in UK. If it was anyone else in his place, if it was Clooney or Pitt, they would be totally locked. But it’s Oldman, and for some obscure reason, the same laws don’t apply. There has always been some bias against him.
How Oldman & Shannon might be left out in favor of Clooney, Pitt, Dicaprio is sad. Truly sad.
And Swinton needs to be there too.
I’d replace Dicaprio with either Gary Oldman or Woody Harrelson and Bullock with Vanessa Redgrave.
Here are my predictions…
Best Actor
George Clooney = The Descendants
Jean Dujardin = The Artist
Michael Fassbender = Shame
Gary Oldman = Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Brad Pitt = Moneyball
Best Actress
Glenn Close = Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis = The Help
Meryl Streep = The Iron Lady
Charlize Theron = Young Adult
Michelle Williams = My Week with Marilyn
Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks = Drive
Nick Nolte = Warrior
Patton Oswalt = Young Adult
Christopher Plummer = Beginners
Max Von Sydow = Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Best Supporting Actress
Berenice Bejo = The Artist
Jessica Chastain = The Help
Melissa McCarthy = Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer = The Help
Shaileen Woodley = The Descendants
Best Ensemble Acting
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Hugo
Let’s not forget that because of the way they nominate that SAG can be very random, 2007 anyone? They also have TV actors which will help push Bridesmaids into Outstanding Cast and McCarthy into Supporting Actress.
Again with Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close…
If this movie gets something it will be on thursday with the globes, not tomorrow. Von Sydow maybe, and that’s it.
Just look at how it has been doing with the critics. The actors wont be different.
I really don’t buy into the whole category fraud thing with Viola Davis. She is just as much a lead as Emma Stone is, if not more so. Stone is the film’s storyteller, but the story is about Viola Davis. Primarily, it is HER film, and that’s enough to warrant lead status for me.
Toronto film critics announced their winners: Tree of Life and Take Shelter for picture.
I have constantly said that Viola Davis gave a great performance in aSUPPORTING ROLE…
i’m going triple J on this one.
Jonah Hill for Supporting Actor in Moneyball
Joseph Gordon Levitt for Actor in 50/50
Judi Dench for Supporting Actress in J. Edgar
You don’t have to believe that I am an actual SAG actor, but I did vote by noon on Monday, and I got about 40 screeners in my living room right now. I have no idea who will actually get nominated for ENSEMBLE, but I did nominate my favorite movies as opposed to biggest cast (hence my nomination of TREE OF LIFE). Here are some of the interesting choices of the 83 on the ballot for Best Ensemble (maybe one will sneak through):
Answers to Nothing
The Beaver
Cedar Rapids
The Conspirator
Cowboys and Aliens
Dirty Girl
Don’t Be Afraid of the Dark
The Eagle
Fast Five
Hop
I Don’t Know How She Does It
Immortals
In the Land of Blood and Honey (even though there were no screenings)
Insidious
Limitless
Miral
The Muppets (again no screenings, I really wanted to see it)
Our Idiot Brother
Rio
Soul Surfer
Source Code
Submarine
The Three Musketeers
Tower Heist
W.E.
White Irish Drinkers
X-Men: First Class
Nice TKS SAG-winning photo, a salient reminder of the Big Turnaround, just to refresh, in a span of one week, and after 2 months of TSN domination including the Globes, The King’s Speech won PGA, got 12 Oscar noms, Tom Hooper won DGA, and the cast and Colin Firth won at SAGs.
SAG this year:
ENSEMBLE
The Artist
The Descendants
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Help
Hugo
LEAD ACTOR
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
LEAD ACTRESS
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Octavia Spencer, The Help
(No Jessica Chastain, her votes will split among the 50 films of hers shown his year)
STUNT ENSEMBLE
Drive
Fast Five
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
**That Dev Patel supporting actor nomination is a big sham.
@SAG Actor: If you’re truly genuine, who do you think is really going to win Best Ensemble? And will Gary Oldman actually get nominated for Best Actor? You’re a great “actor”…”SAG Actor”. Are you also the person who once impersonated Roger Ebert here and said that EL&IC sucked big time? It’s funny that you’ve actually gone in with two of my own ‘no guts, no glory’ predictions (maybe you must’ve read about them on the other page before you posted your comment). For the Golden Globes, will you also claim yourself to be ‘HFPA voter’, and during the Oscars as ‘Academy member’? Maybe, you’re sore about HP getting stuffed big time at the BFCA nominations.
@Lauren: And you actually believe ‘SAG Actor’???
My picks:
BEST ENSEMBLE:
The Descendants
Hugo
The Help
The Artist
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
BEST ACTOR:
George Clooney- The Descendants
Jean Dujardin- The Artist
Brad Pitt- Moneyball
Gary Oldman- Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Ryan Gosling- Drive
BEST ACTRESS:
Michelle Williams- My Week With Marilyn
Tilda Swinton- We Need To Talk About Kevin
Viola Davis- The Help
Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Elizabeth Olsen- Martha Marcy Mae Marlene
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Albert Brooks- Drive
Christopher Plummer- Beginners
Andy Serkis- Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Max von Sydow- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Alan Rickman- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows pt 2
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Melissa McCarthy- Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer- The Help
Shailene Woodley- The Descendants
Jessica Chastain- Tree of Life
Vanessa Redgrave- Corolanius
I hope so, too, Lauren. He stood out in all the films, but was extra great in this one.
As for stunts, there were only ten choices:
The Adjustment Bureau
Captain America
Cowboys and Aliens
Fast Five
The Green Hornet
Harry Potter
Thor
Tower Heist
Transformers: Dark of the Moon
X:Men: First Class
Dear SAG ACTOR – I thank you and love you for voting for Alan Rickman. Maybe if we’re lucky other people felt as you did.
Ah! No other win/nomination for Slumdog Millionaire…I see your point.
Macy,Ian Mckellen won Supporting Actor for Fellowship of the Ring…and all three LOTR movies were nominated for Ensemble, with ROTK winning…It is one piece;written as one,filmed as one…
My picks for Stunt Ensemble:
Transformers
Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
Fast Five or Harry Potter
I was a SAG nominating committee member this year, and I decided to go with one “out there” nomination per category. Nominations that most likely will have no traction in the voting but which I felt strongly about
Ensemble: The Tree of Life (favorite movie, but only 3 actors in this category? What about the kids?)
Actor: Joseph Gordon-Levitt
Actress: Mia Wasikowska
S. Actor: Alan Rickman
S. Actress: nominated Jessica Chastain twice: Tree of Life and The Help
So each of these actors got at least one vote this year
@ Macy
I have Social Network feelings coming from The Artist. And I feel Hugo is The King Speech.
Best Ensemble:
Midnight in Paris
The Help
The Descendants
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Best Actor:
Brad Pitt- MoneyBall
George Clooney- The Descendants
Jean Dujardin- The Artist
Michael Fassbender- Shame
Gary Oldman- TTSS
Best Actress:
Meryl Streep- The Iron Lady
Viola Davis- The Help
Michelle Williams- MWWM
Charlize Theron- Young Adult
Tilda Swinton- WNTTAK
Best Supporting Actor:
Albert Brooks- Drive
Christopher Plummer- Beginners
Paton Oswalt- Young Adult
Kenneth Branaugh- MWWM
John Hawkes-MMMM
Best Supporting Actress:
Octavia Spencer- The Help
Jessica Chastain- The Help
Shananen Woodley- The Descendants
Berenice Bejo- The Artist
Melissa MCarthy- Bridesmaids
Category Freud! Viola Davis is supporting, not lead. This is category freud and it’s frustrating as hell that for some reason she’s getting away with it without so much as bloggers commenting on it.
All jokes apart, are there genuine fears that ‘The Artist’ might be peaking early, and might end up like ‘The Social Network’ last year? Does it have what it takes to go all the way, and maintain its momentum till February-end?
@Robert A.: There is a video on the website of the Golden Globes about how Dujardin bonded with the dog…and besides, aren’t humans and dogs supposed to be best friends?
@ Macy:
Actually, I was just kidding about the dog. But if they really wanted to make sure The Artist gets a SAG ensemble nod, they should have included the dog! Who could resist?
@Robert A.: So the dog gets the award too??
@forg: Think of all the action movies/movies involving great degree of action…
Remember that the SAG ensemble often serves as a sort of “best picture” award in disguise. I know, I know, it probably shouldn’t be that way, but it often is, at least when it comes to nominations. When you remember that Life is Beautiful got a SAG ensemble nomination, you’re reminded that if the actors like a movie enough, they’re most likely going to nominate it for ensemble even if it has a “smallish” cast in comparison to some other contenders.
And as Sasha points out, The Artist has Dujardin, Bejo, Cromwell, Goodman, Miller, the pooch! I fully expect The Artist to get a SAG ensemble nod, and I expect that Potter will once again be left out in the cold.
Any predictions for stunt ensemble?
@JP: Now that you’ve mentioned ‘Bridesmaids’, I think that can indeed get in, thanks to Melissa McCarthy. Or even TTSS, if the actors do go in for Oldman.
Just like they did with The Birdcage, Hairspray… I think either Harry Potter or Bridesmaids make the top 5 instead of J. Edgar.
ELIC, The Artist, The Descendants and The Help are in for me.
@phantom: The best performances do often get overlooked, I expect him at the Globes though…
I’m skeptical about Ryan Gosling’s SAG-chances although I consider him probably the best of his generation, but if they failed to nominate him for Blue fucking Valentine (best male performance last year IMO), then I can’t see them nominating him for his understated performance in the excellent genre film that is ‘Drive’…and ‘The Ides of March’ basically lost all its buzz.
@Sasha Stone: The lack of attention to the other actors except Bejo and Dujardin was concerning me. Plain and simple.
Best Actor
George Clooney – The Descendants
Ryan Gosling – Drive
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Brad Pitt – Moneyball
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Best Actress
Viola Davis – The Help
Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn
Tilda Swinton – We Need To Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron – Young Adult
Supporting Actor
Christopher Plummer – Beginners
Albert Brooks – Drive
Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn
Armie Hammer – J. Edgar
Patton Oswalt – Young Adult
Supporting Actress
Octavia Spencer – The Help
Jessica Chastain – The Help
Melissa McCarthy – Bridemaids
Carey Mulligan – Shame
Shailene Woodley – The Descendants
Best Ensemble Cast
The Help
The Descendants
Bridesmaids
Midnight In Paris
Hugo
Well, Macy, John Goodman received a nomination from one of the minor critics’ groups just the other day, so he is definitely a worthy part of the ensemble. Haven’t had the chance to see the movie yet, though.
Can someone please explain to me how ‘The Artist’ qualifies for Ensemble Cast? No disrespect to the actors, and I’m sure there are wonderful supporting actors in that film, but besides Berenice Bejo and Jean Dujardin, what about the other actors and their performances? Sorry if I sound brusque but The Artist does not seem to be the kind of film that would actually have an Ensemble Cast (at least, not according to me, anyway), ‘cos all the attention is on Bejo and Dujardin. Or is it being considered for Best Ensemble simply because it has been winning all the critics awards?
Can someone please explain to me how ‘The Artist’ qualifies for Ensemble Cast?
Okay, since you asked. John Goodman, Penelope Ann Miller, Jim Cromwell to name just three of a very large, very adept ensemble. You can criticize the film all you want but ensemble? It has that covered.
akumax
It isn’t because a lot of us don’t consider it one of the best ensembles this year, I think it has more to do with the fact that there are simply BIGGER ensembles in consideration, and in this category, usually the bigger, the better. That’s why I just don’t see bp-frontrunners like The Artist and The Descendants getting in…it doesn’t mean, it won’t happen, it probably will, I just don’t see it.
@Sasha Stone: Mila Kunis wasn’t nominated for the Oscar, Jacki Weaver was. Please make the correction.
@Sasha Stone: Mila Kunis wasn’t nominated for the Oscar, Jacki Weaver was. Please make the correction.
Thanks…
why everyone keeps forgetting Armie Hammer and John Hawkes for the supporting category….they both did an amazing job especially Hammer!!
Just wanted to put out an error – in your SAG/Oscar comparison chart, Mila Kunis should be swapped out for Jacki Weaver in the Oscar nominees list (right-hand side).
@jorge: SAG nominations on Wednesday, Golden Globes on Thursday…
wasn’t Jackie Weaver nominated for an Oscar, not Mila Kunis?
People keep forgetting that you can actually win Ensemble Cast at SAG even without having a single separate acting nomination otherwise (case in point ‘Slumdog Millionaire’ and ‘Return of the King’, both of whom turned out to be eventual Best Pic Oscar winners). HP, most likely, will not even be nominated for Best Pic at the Oscars because looking at the BFCA choices, it would hardly be expected to make a dent at the Oscars. But this could be HP’s best chance to shine out, even if it may not end up having any effect on its award chances. HP has a much greater chance at the SAGs than with any other critics groups ‘cos the actors vote for one another. I, personally, wouldn’t be too surprised to see it being nominated.
Then again, if it’s not nominated for the ensemble cast, the PGA nomination is also virtually out of question. I don’t see how any film could be nominated for Best Pic at Oscars/PGAs without having any significant acting, directing, or writing recognition.
I don’t get it. Drive is deservingly emerging as one of the main contenders. It’s magnificent and will be prized more in ten years. Great directing great music great script great editing and cinematography, The film is ultimately driven by great performances, from Gosling to Hendricks who feels on screen for 5 minutes only. Yet no one is predicting it for an ensemble SAG nom. I think tomorrow Drive will be in the list of best ensembles but in everyone’s mind will still still the underdog with no real chance, why?
someone explain me!!!
when is the sag nominations and globes nominations coming????
i though globes was going to be tomorrow and on wednesday the sags?
i like leo and im fan of his work but im gettin tired to this ridiculous pursuit of the oscar!!!! he needs to stop , seriously
im gonna get pissed if tilda cant make it…
CROSSED FINGERS FOR MY SABU
No way they’re leaving out Carey Mulligan.
It’d be nice if Deathly Hallows Part 2 gets an Ensemble nomination. Actually, I hope it does. That group of actors stayed in tact for 10 years, give them soemthing.
N
No Dujardin ?
This is so exciting!
Well, I guess that my predictions look like this:
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Gary Oldman, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
Alt: Leonardo DiCaprio, J.Edgar
The fifth spot is between DiCaprio and Oldman, in my opinion. Oldman will have heavy support by the British members, while DiCaprio’s film is a flop, so I don’t think he’ll be voted a lot. But it’s a race between these two. I think it will be Oldman.
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Viola Davis, The Help
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Alt: Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs/Kirsten Dunst, Melancholia
I’m not putting Mara in, because I’ve heard that there weren’t many screenings so I doubt she’ll gather many votes. I think that Close is completely doomed, but she the actors branch might help her now in this very vulnerable situation. Olsen won’t get in. I can see Dunst popping in, though. Theron has the advantage of strong public relations, but the fifth spot is pretty much open.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Albert Brooks, Drive
Ben Kingsley, Hugo
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Christoph Waltz, Carnage
Alt: Brad Pitt, The Tree of Life/ Alan Rickman, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2/ Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
I think Waltz’s spot is in danger and someone else might get in. I guess Rickman will have some support from British members, Oswalt will have support if Theron also has some and Pitt might get a double nod.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Alt: Berenice Bejo, The Artist/ Kate Winslet, Carnage/ Jodie Foster, Carnage/ Janet McTeer, Albert Nobbs/Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Another open category. I have a feeling that Bejo won’t make it and McCarthy only had success from local critics groups in the U.S. and she won’t be a major contender in the big precursors. I have a feeling that the SAGs will support ‘Carnage’, so maybe the two ladies will pop in (or one of them). And they’re extremely famous and have friends in the actors branch. McTeer won’t get but she might surprise. Woodley, Redgrave, Mulligan and Chastain are vulnerable. Chastain might cancel herself out because of many performances, Woodley might be the newcomer they won’t nominate, Mulligan is in a dark film and might not make it, Redgrave was snubbed for the BFCA award so there might have been very few SAG screenings and it’s an open field.
BEST ENSEMBLE
The Help
The Descendants
The Artist
I have a feeling that ‘Extremely Loud’ won’t make it anywhere tomorrow. War Horse? Nah. The Tree of Life? Nope. Moneyball? Hugo? Well, maybe Hugo. Midnight in Paris? Perhaps but I doubt it. The Ides of March? Possible. Tinker Tailor? No. Harry Potter? Perhaps. Bridesmaids? Maybe, but I don’t think so. Carnage? Perhaps, but it’s not really possible.
The Help
The Descendants
The Artist
Midnight in Paris
The Ides of March
Harry Potter
Bridesmaids
Hugo
If Midnight in Paris makes it, it almost secures the Best Picture nomination. If Potter makes it, it’s still in contention for a Best Picture spot, though the defining moment will be its BAFTA and PGA acknowledgement (if there will be any). Hugo doesn’t need that nomination.
Here’s my take….
Ensemble
– Margin Call
– The Help
– The Descendants
– Bridesmaids
– Midnight in Paris
Actor
– Michael Fassbender, Shame
– Michael Shannon, Take Shelter
– Gary Oldman, TTSS
– George Clooney, The Descendants
– Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Actress
– Meryl Streep, Iron Lady
– Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
– Viola Davis, The Help
– Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
– Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Supporting Actor
– Christopher Plummer, Beginners
– Albert Brooks, Drive
– Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
– Jonah Hill, Moneyball
– Kevin Spacey, Margin Call
Supporting Actress
– Octavia Spencer, The Help
– Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
– Vanessa Redgrave, Coriolanus
– Shaileen Woodley, The Descendants
– Jessica Chastain, Take Shelter
For a moment, I forgot about Carey Mulligan, she is my 1st alt. in the supporting actress category. I also think Bullock will pop up here and if her film becomes a strong player, then she will probably sneak in at the Oscars, too.
LEAD ACTOR
1. Jean Dujardin
2. George Clooney
3. Brad Pitt
4. Leonardo DiCaprio
5. Michael Fassbender
Alt. Gary Oldman, Michael Shannon, Ryan Gosling, Thomas Horn, Ralph Fiennes
LEAD ACTRESS
1. Michelle Williams
2. Viola Davis
3. Meryl Streep
4. Glenn Close
5. Charlize Theron
Alt. Tilda Swinton, Rooney Mara, Keira Knightley, Kirsten Dunst, Emma Stone
SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Christopher Plummer
2. Albert Brooks
3. Kenneth Branagh
4. Max von Sydow
5. Brad Pitt
Alt. Oswalt, Fiennes, Rickman, Mortensen,Serkis, Stoll, Waltz, Hill, Clooney, Firth
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Jessica Chastain
2. Octavia Spencer
3. Vanessa Redgrave
4. Shailene Woodley
5. Sandra Bullock
Alt. McCarthy, Bejo, McTeer, Dench, Cotillard, Foster, Winslet, Blanchett
ENSEMBLE
1. War Horse
2. Extremely Close and Incredibly Loud
3. Midnight in Paris
4. The Help
5. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part II
Alt. Hugo, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, My Week with Marilyn, Carnage, Coriolanus, The Ides of March, Contagion
NO GUTS NO GLORY
Lead Actress – Emma Stone (The Help)
Lead Actor – Thomas Horn (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)
Supporting Actor – Ralph Fiennes (Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows)
Supporting Actress – Cate Blanchett (Hanna)
Ensemble – Contagion
I know I should be probably considering Hugo, The Descendants, The Artist etc. much more seriously for the Ensemble nomination, but for some reason, I don’t think it will happen…maybe for Hugo.
I do think Harry Potter 7pt2 will get in here in ensemble. Mainly because it HAS TO BE the most seen and everyone loves that group. I will be surprised if it doesn’t. Not shocked though. This year is too weird for any shocks.
Otherwise, I have no idea. Every year they pick someone I would never have guessed. At least they choose the ones they want. I don’t feel that they’re as influenced by FYC ads and buzz. Watch them prove me wrong now. lol
My Predictions:
*=predicted winner (as of now)
ACTOR:
George Clooney, The Descendants *
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
ACTRESS:
Viola Davis, The Help *
Elizabeth Olsen, Martha Marcy May Marlene
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks, Drive
Nick Nolte, Warrior
Christopher Plummer, Beginners *
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Bernice Bejo, The Artist
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help *
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
ENSEMBLE:
The Artist
The Descendants
Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
The Help
Midnight in Paris *
I think J Edgar will fail to register in ensemble, put Bridesmaids in instead. Theron will probably replace Close (as I’m certain she will come Oscar-time), and I sincerely hope Shannon or Oldman will replace DiCaprio in best actor. Don’t think Jonah Hill will make it in supp actor, there are several more likely options as I see it: Oswalt, Spacey, Nolte, Mortensen, maybe even Kingsley etc.
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Ryan Gosling, Drive
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Glenn Close, Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis, The Help
Michelle Williams, My Week with Marilyn
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actor
Albert Brooks, Drive
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Max Von Sydow, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Kenneth Branagh, My Week with Marilyn
Patton Oswalt, Young Adult
Best Supporting Actress
Carey Mulligan, Shame
Jessica Chastain, The Help
Melissa McCarthy, Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, The Help
Shailene Woodley, The Descendants
Ensemble
The Artist
Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
The Help
Midnight in Paris
The Descendants
…yeah. I think that looks right.
Good predictions, Sasha, especially in lead actor and actress. These would probably be my predictions as well in those categories. Close really needs SAG to remain in the game, I think, and this is the most likely place (other than the Globes) for her to pop up.
I guess. But then there’s Theron. And it still does seem a bit odd to me that Close couldn’t eek out a BFCA nod even when they nominate six people. Okay, now I’m confusing myself.
I also expect to see The Artist, The Descendants, and The Help in ensemble as well. After that it gets more blurry. How about Midnight in Paris for ensemble? I’m not feeling J. Edgar for a nod, for some reason. And yes, EL&IC remains the big wildcard here.
@Steve50 The HP issue will not be resolved until the PGA nominations. If it will score anywhere, it will be there.
Hoping Woody gets in, but at whose expense? DiCaprio, maybe?
Same story with Redgrave and Mulligan, unfortunately – who would the SAG voters replace?
Serkis probably has no chance because a lot of the old guard see motion capture as a threat to the trade (which is isn’t – must be creating an atmosphere similar to what it was like for silent actors with the advent of sound).
For Ensemble, I don’t see Bridesmaids not making the list, again at J Edgar’s expense. At least the HP mystery should be all but resolved after tomorrow because it will be in or it will be out.
And here is what I think it will be like:
actor:
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Gary Oldman, Tailor Tinker Soldier Spy
George Clooney, The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Michael Fassbender, Shame
actress:
Charlize Theron, Young Adult
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Michelle Williams, My Week With Marilyn
Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin
Viola Davis, The Help
supporting actor:
Albert Brooks, Drive
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Kenneth Branagh, My Week With Marilyn
Max von Sydow, Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
Nick Nolte, Warrior
supporting actress:
Berenice Bejo, The Artist
Carey Mulligan, por Shame
Melissa McCarthy, por Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer, por The Help
Vanessa Redgrave, por Coriolanus
ensemble:
The Artist
The Descendants
The Help
The Ides of March
Midnight in Paris
I hope Mulligan and Redgrave makes it. The British prides!
Well, perhaps I was a bit harsh on Leo, and I even like Clooney, but their roles/performances this year just don’t cut it.
Woody Harrelson (Actor), Nick Nolte and Viggo Mortensen (Supporting Actors) have been shafted in awards season thus far. I mean, these guys put “actors” like Pitt, Clooney, DiCaprio and Jonah Hill to shame.