292 responses

  1. Ra S.
    January 18, 2014

    I believe Lupita just won Best Supporting Actress.

  2. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    beautiful lady wonderful speech

  3. Corvo
    January 18, 2014

    Lupita. Right choice.

  4. Marshall Flores
    January 18, 2014

    Lupita wins! So well-deserved.

    With her SAG win, Nyong’o now takes a 50-45 lead over Jennifer Lawrence in AD’s Supporting Actress model. BAFTA left.

  5. phantom
    January 18, 2014

    Lupita Nyong’O !!! Aww, wonderful speech once again. I think she may have just won that Oscar. Classy, eloquent and remarkably endearing.

  6. Bryce Forestieri
    January 18, 2014

    Leto is not very good at this speeches speeches speeches speeched is he?

  7. WW
    January 18, 2014

    I’m not surprised that Lupita won, and I’m happy she did. If the SAGs want to honor Jennifer, they still could do it with Ensemble. Besides, Jennifer won the SAG last year for ”Silver Linings.”

  8. vic
    January 18, 2014

    Anyway have a link?

  9. GoOnNow
    January 18, 2014

    any link for live streaming of the show? :D really appreciate it

  10. phantom
    January 18, 2014

    Even with Fassbender’s inevitable Bafta win, Leto is the surest thing Oscar-wise at the moment. Blanchett could join her in an hour or so.

    P.S. He nailed the speech, too.

  11. Craig
    January 18, 2014

    Yes, please, I need a link too!

  12. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    Lupita won, thank god. I think 12 Years A Slave is winning ensemble.
    GO GO GO. David O Russel must be pissed now. Sorry always have to gloat a bit.

  13. Ra S.
    January 18, 2014

    Jared Leto is now winning the Oscars with Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG.

  14. brian
    January 18, 2014

    no surprises so far

  15. Akumax
    January 18, 2014
  16. Marshall Flores
    January 18, 2014

    Jared Leto wins as expected. Already considered a lock by AD’s model, but its confidence in his win jumps from 80 to 86%.

  17. WW
    January 18, 2014

    Now that Lupita’s picked up the Critics Choice and SAG prizes, it’s looking more like she will win the Oscar. (Plus, she’s got to be the favorite at the BAFTA’s, too.) … And does the Academy really want to make Jennifer Lawrence a two-time Oscar winner at only 23?

  18. brian
    January 18, 2014

    Julia please. Veep is the funniest show on TV

  19. GoOnNow
    January 18, 2014

    nope, the stream 2 watch doesn’t work for me, wants me to install things I don’t need in order to watch live streaming

  20. steve50
    January 18, 2014

    Lupita and Leto will are going to go down in Oscar history as the most beautiful supporting winners in a single year.

  21. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    Jennifer Lawrence was miscast. She was overracting. She acted like a SNL member doing a big 70′s sketch. All the talk and predictions about Lawrence winning have been derailed and debunked! Wonderful.

  22. James
    January 18, 2014

    And of course Dreyfus nails the speech.

  23. brian
    January 18, 2014

    Modern Family is the unfunniest show on TV … no idea why this show matters

  24. John
    January 18, 2014

    Anybody else feel like AH is being cooly received by the room?

  25. Mrs. Rochester
    January 18, 2014

    Any other links? The one provided isn’t working for me either… :-(

  26. Yvette
    January 18, 2014

    Lupita is wonderful. I love JLaw, but I don’t want her to just win because she was good. I want her to win when she’s brilliant. Not her year.
    Happy for Lupita, but Sally Hawkins is going to complicate things for me because she was truly great in BJ.

  27. Yvette
    January 18, 2014

    Who is AH? Im serious blanking.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 18, 2014

      American Hustle :)

  28. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    @John. I noticed that too. They don’t seem to be very enthusiastic about it.

  29. Bob Burns
    January 18, 2014

    I thought the same thing, John, that AH’s reception might have gotten a cool reception…. I put it down to the production, though.

  30. brian
    January 18, 2014

    @obama wins

    I thought JLaw was great in AH … but she was even better in SLP … Lupita definitely deserved to win

  31. brian
    January 18, 2014

    Modern Family … boo!!!!!

  32. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    @ Yvette,

    American Hustle

    what is BJ and why Sally Hawkins is truly great in it? ; )

  33. Mary M
    January 18, 2014

    Be happy for the victory of Lupita nyongo now stop hating Jeenifer lawrence

    “Jennifer Lawrence was miscast. She was overracting. She acted like a SNL member doing a big 70′s sketch. All the talk and predictions about Lawrence winning have been derailed and debunked! Wonderful.”

    Be happy for the victory of Lupita Nyongo, now stop hating Jennifer Lawrence.

  34. Yvette
    January 18, 2014

    American Hustle! That was obvious wasn’t it.
    I can’t watch right now, reading updates..
    Thanks Ryan.

  35. brian
    January 18, 2014


    Sally is truly great at what? ; )

  36. Yvette
    January 18, 2014

    @ Yvette,

    American Hustle

    what is BJ and why Sally Hawkins is truly great in it? ; )

    Blue Jasmine.

  37. Orrin K (article’s author)
    January 18, 2014

    I once wrote an article arguing that the Screen Actors Guild awards shouldn’t exist….it’s the one I posted attached to my website. Recommend you read it.

  38. Kim
    January 18, 2014

    Modern Family… again? Really?

  39. Yvette
    January 18, 2014

    ‘Be happy for the victory of Lupita Nyongo, now stop hating Jennifer Lawrence…’
    Poor JLaw – it’s really not her fault.
    She needs to come back and do something edgy.
    People need to be reminded Winters Bone,

  40. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    @Mary M. I don’t hate Lawrence, but she was totally miscast. David O Russel knows what the acting branch members like. He gets the most popular young actors and reuses them, but the film itself always turns out to be mediocre, that is why SLP only won one acting award, and AH is most likely going to go home empty handed this year.

  41. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    I thought Veep would get it. Great chemistry and writing. And less is more!
    Ty Burrell is my favorite on MF. About time Alec Baldwin stopped the wins.
    I fear the great Michael Fassbender will lose the Oscar to Jared Leto.
    Now a 2 horse race for Supp Actress,

  42. Ace
    January 18, 2014

    BJ is Blue Jasmine.

    People might not notice it because Cate gives such a towering performance but Hawkins is brilliant in the role.

  43. SallyinChicago
    January 18, 2014

    ^^ You have to have a provider service & login.

  44. Orrin K (article’s author)
    January 18, 2014

    Also, wrote another article that was featured on this very website 7 years ago arguing that the SAG ensemble award shouldn’t be considered a predictor of best film

  45. WW
    January 18, 2014

    This is ”Modern Family’s” 4th ensemble win in a row.

    Zzzzzzz. How about spreading the wealth and recognizing other shows?

    At least Alec Baldwin didn’t win his SEVENTH SAG for Actor in a Comedy in a row, but then it just went to Ty Burrell …

  46. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    I Love DAme M but Moss and Hunter were great!!!!!

  47. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    Not enough people seem to see Top of the Lake. Mirren slept walk through Phil Spector. But she is elegant and funny and well she is Dame Helen Mirren.

  48. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    I start to think actors should not vote at all…

  49. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    Please, please, let 12 Years A Slave win Best Ensemble.

  50. Marshall Flores
    January 18, 2014

    If people are still looking for a livestream, http://www.time4tv.com/2011/06/tnt.php

  51. SallyinChicago
    January 18, 2014

    These awards are so predictable! It’s the same with the GG and Critics Awards….so the Oscars will be predictable too.

  52. brian
    January 18, 2014


    So, you personally don’t like David Russell or his films. We get it.

  53. James
    January 18, 2014

    Did Douglas thank Soderbergh?

  54. m1
    January 18, 2014

    These awards are so predictable!

    I put that in bold to point out the tiresome repetitiveness of certain commenters.

  55. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    Is Emma Thompson always that full on? OTT! A little goes a long way. She is funny, but it’d be hard to live with! Wow Kirk Douglas is 97! A poignant moment, as i recall it was back in 1988 when Michael won his 2nd Oscar and his only one for acting. The notion of stepping out of the shadow of a famous parent. Especially poignant as Michael was so so ill, not so long ago.

  56. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    “We get it”. Who is “we”???

  57. steve50
    January 18, 2014

    None of these streams works for me, so I’m relying on you guys and Twitter. Thanks, anyway. Looks like the only ones getting a feed tonite are my goats.

    Canada decided it was a good idea to broadcast the taped show TOMORROW night, opposite the HBO powerhouse Sunday and Downton Freakin’ Abbey, when nobody will give a flying f**k. It’s hockey nite tonite.

  58. m1
    January 18, 2014

    @ObamaWins: “We” is most of the people reading the comments here tonight. Including myself. And stop trying to shove a political agenda down our throats.

  59. Ryan Adams
    January 18, 2014

    Any good new live streams yet?

  60. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    So is 12 Years A Slave on its way to Best Ensemble?? I guess the chances have been greatly increased with the supporting actress win. I hope it joins Slumdog, Return of the King, The King Speech’s SAG ensemble win.

  61. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    as I mention before Emma Thompson is now available in pills… it’s nice to be high on ET

  62. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    this is really working fine with me … select stream 2 and then get read of all the ads.

  63. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    or stream 4…

  64. Mary M
    January 18, 2014

    I loved the victory of Lupita Nyongo, much deserved, but it is always good value the work of the other nominees..

  65. Jerry Grant
    January 18, 2014

    Lupita’s win is a big deal…… hello Oscars

  66. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    Rita Moreno is one of the EGOT greats… I didn’t remember that, wow

  67. Jeremy
    January 18, 2014

    Its increasingly apparent I don’t watch a lot of TV cuz I don’t know any of these mothafuckas winning for the past hour…

  68. Kim
    January 18, 2014

    Gotta love a gal like Rita!

  69. Scary
    January 18, 2014
  70. Reno
    January 18, 2014

    Saw Inside Llewyn Davis & got home just in time to see Lupita’s speech, so she wore a turquoise dress to match the SAG trophy, well she better start fitting some golden dresses coz she’s winning the Oscar!

    Inside Llewyn Davis was terrific, the ambiguous ending probably alienated Oscar voters hence then paltry 2 noms, but I thought that ending was brilliant allowing viewers something to think about.

    Rita Moreno… best speech so far!

  71. phantom
    January 18, 2014

    Akumax’s link works for me, go for the backup there !

    I love this show. Elegant, tight, no usual bullshit.

  72. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    Rita! Rita Rita. Wow I learned so much about her in that segment.
    Makes the predictable bits or the glib moments of awards season all ok. Wonder if she will be inundated with offers again! Magic.

  73. Mrs. Rochester
    January 18, 2014

    Came across this other link, in case anyone needs it: http://www.livenewschat.eu/live-trial-stream/

    It’s working perfectly!!!

  74. m1
    January 18, 2014

    Rita Moreno’s speech was great. I guess I’ll have to check out some of her work now.

    And yes, very well produced show. Funny, classy, not too stuffy but not too relaxed either. And it’s nice to see the actors not look starving for once.

  75. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    Love the show too… Rita Moreno singing was amazing

  76. brian
    January 18, 2014

    Rita Moreno just stole the show … wowzers! : )

  77. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    Id rather winners like Burrell and Louis Dreyfus prepare their speeches than those tiresome bits of banter between presenters. To see Amy Adams and Bradley Cooper and Jeremy Renner like deers in the headlights. I know autocue is not natural for many actors, but i wish they would find fresher ways to introduce clips. It is a creatiive medium after all!

  78. steve50
    January 18, 2014

    The link works! Thanks!

  79. James
    January 18, 2014

    No win for Gunn. BS. Win for Cranston.

  80. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    that music from Angels in America is always so touching

  81. WW
    January 18, 2014

    Could we please have a moratorium on nominating Maggie Smith anymore? As wonderful as she is, she’s won many awards, but she clearly doesn’t care about them and never attends. Why not toast another artist who also does great work and appreciates the honor?

  82. GoOnNow
    January 18, 2014

    Mrs. Rochester, thank you so much! The link works like a dream, no trashy commercials, no installment requirements. Cheers :P

  83. Kim
    January 18, 2014

    I really wanted to see Anna Gunn win but, was surprised to see that it was actually Maggie Smith’s first win for a solo SAG for Downton Abbey.

  84. loyalT
    January 18, 2014

    Jennifer was ROBBED!!!!!
    But Ewan McGregor looked so freaking delicious!!

  85. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    Not that i would advocate zenophobia, but why does the American SAG award Maggie Smith over Anna Gunn? Seems odd to me.

  86. Kansiov
    January 18, 2014

    Agreed, Jennifer was robbed- of a razzie nomination.

  87. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    Tina Fey should be the progressive host for every award show. She is just sublime.

    Where was the Newsroom for Ensemble and Emily Mortimer for Lead – she is wonderful. Other than Jeff’s surprise Emmy win, the show has been a little lost with BB and Homeland dominating everywhere.

  88. kenkindaichi
    January 18, 2014

    I still hope Sally Hawkins could shock the other candidates in the Oscar race. She should have won her glory for happy-go-lucky

  89. Kim
    January 18, 2014

    Yay! Breaking Bad! It’s great how they can spread the wealth from year to year in the TV Drama category. Too bad the same can’t be said for TV Comedy.

  90. phantom
    January 18, 2014

    It’s down to the Bafta now to show us if Best Actor is a done deal or there could be still room for a surprise…DiCaprio maybe even Ejiofor ?

  91. Mrs. Rochester
    January 18, 2014

    You’re welcome GoOnNow! Glad to help!!

  92. filmboymichael
    January 18, 2014

    that was a good speech by MM….think he may have just sealed it.

  93. Bryce Forestieri
    January 18, 2014

    uhh I love McConaughey’s speeches

  94. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    I feel Ejiofor’s shot is dwindling for the Oscar. He needed to win one of Globe or SAG. Bafta may not be enough should he prevail there.

  95. SallyinChicago
    January 18, 2014

    Could we please have a moratorium on nominating Maggie Smith anymore?
    ^^ I feel the same about Streep.

  96. SallyinChicago
    January 18, 2014

    Isn’t that dog in the commercial with the little girl Augie from the Artist?

  97. Corvo
    January 18, 2014

    I loved McConaughey speech.

  98. Mrs. Rochester
    January 18, 2014

    And with that, ladies and gentlemen, McCounaghey secured his Oscar once and for all… What a passionate speech!!!!

  99. Claudiu Dobre
    January 18, 2014

    Mrs. Rochester – awesome link indeed. Thanks a lot!

  100. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    MM is so damn charming and a hot dude! And he has made good a career that was heading for limp comedy sequels. Strong narrative for him, his film, his transformation. He has made some really smart choices Magic Mike, Mud, Paperboy, Bernie.

  101. phantom
    January 18, 2014

    Blanchett shouldn’t have a problem winning, Ensemble is the big question mark.

  102. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    Screw McConaughey. It’s now a two-man race between him and Leo. I just don’t buy all these stories and all these stupid acceptance speeches. No Class.. At least Jared Leto gave a classy speech tonight.

    I am not sure but Leo’s chances at the BAFTA might increase slightly because Ejiofor hasn’t won ANYTHING of note.

    The good news about today’s results is that they represent the state of the race today. In a week’s time these results will be forgotten and Oscar Voting won’t start until the middle of February. Thank God that alright alright is NOT nominated at BAFTA. I just can’t stand the guy.

    Leo HAS to WIN the OSCAR now!

  103. Reno
    January 18, 2014

    Anybody here saw Grudge Match? Awful awful flick!

  104. brian
    January 18, 2014

    Blanchett for the win … easily

  105. WW
    January 18, 2014

    I fully expect Ejiofor to win Best Actor at BAFTA. He’s a British actor in an acclaimed British movie. And he doesn’t even have to face off against McConaughey, since he wasn’t nominated there. …

    If anyone could pull off an upset, it would be Leo, but since BAFTA only gave 4 nominations to ”Wolf” (and didn’t even nominate it for Best Picture), as opposed to ”12 Years,” which got 9 nominations, I doubt it.

    Still, surprises can happen. I remember one BAFTA year where Jake Gyllenhaal won Supporting Actor for ”Brokeback Mountain.”

  106. Bryce Forestieri
    January 18, 2014

    Cate just jacked off the actor

  107. SallyinChicago
    January 18, 2014

    Deniro looked good!

  108. Antoinette
    January 18, 2014


    Take that film snots. :P

  109. Bryce Forestieri
    January 18, 2014

    AMERICAN HUSTLE, great cast, gotta hand it

  110. SallyinChicago
    January 18, 2014

    Ah Wins — does this mean they win best picture?

  111. steve50
    January 18, 2014


  112. Kim
    January 18, 2014

    SO thrilled after Cate won…not as much after American Hustle won.

  113. brian
    January 18, 2014

    No surprise AH takes the SAG ensemble …

  114. Patrick
    January 18, 2014

    Alright alright, my weather forecast is still accurate:
    12YAS wins BFCA, AH wins SAG, Gravity wins DGA and BAFTA.

  115. Reno
    January 18, 2014

    Who is Patty Mack?

  116. phantom
    January 18, 2014

    And the Best Cast goes to…Explosion at the Wig Factory.

  117. Matt
    January 18, 2014

    No huge surprises in the film categories. Apart from Lupita’s stock going up, not many gamechangers.

  118. brian
    January 18, 2014

    As much as I loved AH I still think it will be shut out come Oscar night.

  119. Marcio
    January 18, 2014

    Another boring awards show… boring boring boring!!!

  120. representDLV
    January 18, 2014

    I love that no one film is steam rolling everything. The PGAs will be interesting. I hope Gravity wins.

  121. Bryce Forestieri
    January 18, 2014

    Moving, lovely tribute from Bradley Cooper to actors’ director David O. Russell. One of the highlights of the night for me.

  122. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    Explosion at the Wig Factory can really win the Oscar… and I’m happy with it…

    as long as Sally wins for her performance in BJ

  123. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    @WW – I agree.

    To me it just would seem SO SO unfair if Dallas Buyer’s Club wins 3 Oscars and The Wolf of Wall Street wins none.

    Ejiofor is beloved by the critics but the industry is just NOT responding to him. He’s slight favourte at the BAFTA but you never know. It would be sweet if Leo wins there but it’s not an absolute must for him. It would certainly help though.

    BTW American Hustle just won… I think that the fact that Leo and McConaughey haven’t been in a head to-head battle yet is pretty good for Leo’s hopes because he’s been sweeping. McConaughey has been sweeping also but he hasn’t BEATEN Leo head to head so that’s important.

    That’s why the BAFTA will be important. Not crucial but important.

    If the Oscars were held a week or two from today that I can totally see McConaughey winning. However, they are heald in 6 weeks time and McConaughey has no more awards shows to go to while Leo is going to the BAFTA and he is accepting the Vanguard award at the Santa Barbara Film Festival.

    Ejiofor is loosing steam and I am not sure how many people will vote for him ahead of Leo at the BAFTA. I just don’t know.

    It Leo wins there it would be a two man race with Alright alright. If Ejiofor wins the BAFTA then it’s a three-man race and anything can happen. Oscars LOVE to throw CURVE balls and it’s not like McConaughey DESERVES to win or is the Unstopable force that Cate Blanchett or Jared Leto or Alfonso Cuaron are.

    That might open the door for Leo… AT least I hope so! ;-)

  124. m1
    January 18, 2014

    Yay! American Hustle! So excited!

    Good night, haters. I need my beauty sleep.

  125. GoOnNow
    January 18, 2014

    Cate Blanchett delivers a funny speech once again, this time she added a stronger sentiment though, good job Cate, next: BAFTA and Oscar.

  126. daveinprogress
    January 18, 2014

    Hmm, the rationales begin. How much does a sag ensemble = a best picture winner. Age old conundrum (or at least now 20 years).

    2 wins for Dallas Buyers; 1 for 12 years, 1 for AH, 1 for Blue Jasm

    Cate’s speeches will improve from award to award,Thankfully no Judy Garland faux pas tonight. Nice to see some emotion from her publicly. Nothing standing in her way now to Oscar. She deserves to be a 2 time Oscar winner.

    Apropos nothing, why was Tracey Ullman sitting with Meryl and Julia. Was she a Producer on the movie? I know she wasn’t in it!!!!!

    Thanks to Sasha and Ryan for the thread and the space to reax and wax lyrical about this stuff. Good night and good luck!

  127. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    By the way I can totally see the following and basically No more Clarity:

    SAG went for American Hustle

    PGA can go for 12 Years a Slave

    DGA is GOING for Cuaron

    So no MORE clarity than before those awards. LOL!!! BAFTA will probably go for 12 Years a Slave which will tip the scales but that basically means a SPLIT between Director and Picture with Adapted Screenplay going for 12 Years and Original Screenplay going for American Hustle.

  128. Bob Burns
    January 18, 2014

    tomorrow is the deal for AH. The SAG Ensemble was always theirs.

    tomorrow is really the deal for 12 Years. make or break, IMO.

  129. steve50
    January 18, 2014

    McConaughey is so full of himself he doesn’t need the rest of us. What an annoying individual. Neptune indeed.

    Happy for the other three, though.

    Hopefully the PGA goes for something else to keep this thing alive.

  130. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    Man, I feel bad for Chiwetel Ejiofor. He gives a magnificent performance in “12 Years,” spends months listening to magazines, critics and others talk of how he’s the front-runner for the Oscar and come awards time, he’s left in the dust by the DiCaprio/McConaughy battle when he outdid them both.

  131. Akari
    January 18, 2014

    Cate Blanchett, Christoph Waltz and Chiwetel Ejiofor will be in a movie together. (Rumour)

  132. Odee
    January 18, 2014

    BAFTA, Argo style
    Picture: 12 Year a Slave
    Director: McQueen-12 Years A Slave
    Actor: Ejiofor- 12 Years a Slave
    Actress: Thompson – Saving Mr Banks
    Supp. Actor: Fassbender- !2 Years a Slave
    Supp. Actress: Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave

    Don’t expect this from Oscar. This is a Brokeback Year. I’ll bet many decided not to see Slave and that will hurt it at the Oscars, just like it hurt it at this show and AH won. What a joke. At least it’s better than Crash, if that’s some consolation.

  133. Hera
    January 18, 2014

    It should have been obvious AH would win ensemble. SAG went for Full Monty and Little Miss Sunshine over some strong dramatic ensembles. PGA will either go to Gravity or American Hustle. DGA will likely be Gravity with American Hustle as a possible spoiler. 12 Years will not win either award.

  134. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    So rough news for those hoping for a DiCaprio win as no one has ever won the Best Actor Oscar without getting nominated for the SAG first so that’ll work against him.

    That also works for actress and thus Amy Adams (although she did get an award as part of the best ensamble for Hustle). I think it’ll be Blanchett too and yet I keep remembering 2008 where Julie Christie was racking up all the awards, a seeming lock but then Marion Cottilard (who’d won a Globe in Comedy/Musical) gets the Oscar. True, Cottilard had a SAG nom but still seen as an unlikely winner. And Adams has with her the fact she’s in a Best Picture front-runner and four previous nominations without a win. We’ll see how the BAFTAs go as if it’s Blanchett, fine, she wins Oscar but if they go for Adams or Bullock or even Thompson (and the latter I can see them doing just to show up the Academy for her snub), that might whittle Blacnhett’s lead. Would hardly be the first time the supposed front-runner ends up not getting the final big prize.

  135. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    @Steve50 Totally agree with you, McConaughey is annoying. That’s it though. He’s done. No more spotlight for him. It’s Leo now all the way (bar BAFTA) but that’s ok. He won what he needed to win and I am actually glad that he didn’t get nominated at the SAG because that way he hasn’t been BEATEN by McConaughey yet so it’s all good.

    It’s basically the CLASS Act LEO vs. the COCKY McConaughey.

    As far the best Picture race, relax. PGA is going for 12 Years a Slave. DGA is going for Gravity so there will be no more clarity than there was before these guilds.

    BAFTA is expected to go for 12 Years so it will be the slight favourite. But really this can go many ways. Tonight was expected so no worries.

    It’s all good though. Leo is still 2nd behind McConaughey and he’ll be gaining from now on…

  136. Tim
    January 18, 2014

    What the hell is wrong with Cuba Gooding Jr. He just ran on stage screaming “white men, happy MLK day. Was he that upset that 12 years a slave did not win? A complete moron with no class. The guy hasn’t done anything worth while in forever. Most publicity he will ever get is by acting like an idiot.

  137. Thomas
    January 18, 2014

    American Hustle is boring, is ridiculous and pathetic, 12 Years a Slave has the best ensemble of actors and it should win the Best Cast. SAG shows same racism of HFPA.

  138. WW
    January 18, 2014

    Hey, where’s Christian Bale been? He was a no-show at the Golden Globes, the Critics Choice Awards … and now the SAG Awards.

    Did he figure that once he won those 3 prizes for ”The Fighter” that he no longer has to do the awards circuis? Or does he even care? Of the three, it seems really rude to skip the gala of his actors’ union.

    Vily, we’ll keep fingers crossed for Leo and ”Wall St.”

    Meantime, has anyone else seen this story at Slate.com that asks if the real-life hero of ”Dallas Buyers Club” was actually bisexual and NOT the homophobe he’s depicted in the movie?


  139. representDLV
    January 18, 2014

    I just can’t imagine AH winning the Oscar. It was a decent movie, but wasn’t special. I didn’t think 12YAS was all that great either, but its subject matter could propel it to claim the top prize (that’s where my money is). I still think Gravity was the best movie of the year and deserves the award. I hope it happens.

  140. Thomas
    January 18, 2014

    Chiwetel Ejiofor’s performance is so much better than McCoaughey did in overrated Dallas Buyers Club. Chiwetel has to win the Oscar, for good taste Chiwetel must win.

  141. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    Odee: I agree, can totally see BAFTAs giving it to Thompson to show up the Academy. Then again, if Adams pulls an upset, might swing momentum to her (true, didn’t happen with Riva last year but did with Streep the year before and Cottilard in ’08 so one never knows).

  142. Jeremy
    January 18, 2014

    McConaughey’s speeches have been much better than Leo, who seems pretty cocky at the GG. Like he was already sealed in the Hall of Fame and didn’t need us.

    Matt is cresting at the right time

  143. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    @MWayer. Leo was not nominated because the movie came very late. It’s all good though. There is A TON of GOODWILL towards DiCaprio. By the way No Best Actor has won the OSCAR without being at least nominated at the BAFTA in the last 15-20 years either so no biggie. I am just not feeling McConaughey.

    LEO has to win. The Wolf of Wall Street has to be AWARDED something,. Dallas Buyers club with 3 and TWOWS with 0 – what a BS! The Academy is sure to look at that…

  144. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    It all depends on tomorrow. If American Hustle wins PGA tomorrow, that will obviously a big setback for 12 Years A Slave. The Hurt Locker also lost best ensemble to Inglorious Bastard. So all you DOR fans, you can cheer, and gloat, you are allowed, but you all know tomorrow’s PGA is a nail biter. 12 Years A Slave, go.

  145. Tim
    January 18, 2014

    The HFPA was so racist that they gave 12 years a slave the award for best picture.

  146. Thomas
    January 18, 2014

    I hope 12 Years a Slave wins PGA because it is the best movie of 2013, THE BEST!!!!!!!

  147. Claudiu Dobre
    January 18, 2014

    “Moving, lovely tribute from Bradley Cooper to actors’ director David O. Russell. One of the highlights of the night for me.”

    It was pretty cool, that’s true.
    Not feeling the “winners” vibe like I was feeling it last year with the Argo cast, though, I have to say, so I don’t think anything is decided just yet. But that’s neither here, nor there…

    Anyway, all we know for sure right now is that 12 Years a Slave isn’t sweeping the guilds and, if Gravity wins the PGA and DGA, I honestly think the Oscar split (AH+Cuaron) is on. I just can’t see anybody giving Best Director to Russell. But if anyone can, it’s the Academy…

    While not a deadly blow for 12 Years by any means, this is definitely a very, very bad sign. Only a win by them or a really big surprise here would have told us anything truly significant about the BP race. The AH win is just a confirmation of it being a major player in this race, which everyone kind of already knew it was, anyway.

    The PGA tomorrow will decide whether or not we have an actual race on our hands. If AH wins that one as well, I honestly think the DGA would become more or less meaningless this year (unless, somehow, miraculously, McQueen manages a shocker there). Gravity might be able to beat a strong 12 Years a Slave for Best Picture, but there’s no way it’s ever beating a strong American Hustle, because that one is just too much their type of movie.

  148. Pj
    January 18, 2014

    And Hustle wins the only award that matters

  149. Thomas
    January 18, 2014

    And the speeches of McConaughey are stupid, boring and long, don’t giving award to him, stop boring audience. Chiwetel Ejiofor has to win the award.

  150. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    Vily, true, I keep forgetting at times movies don’t arrive in England in time for BAFTA voting (2003, Halle Berry was nominated for Monster’s Ball a full year after winning the Oscar for it) and thus Wolf didn’t get in time. I am an Adams fan and would love to see her win, know it’s unlikely as Blanchett is so strong but keep thinking some voters might decide to award the lady on her fifth try rather than someone who already has one which can make the difference (not to mention how “Hustle” is a Best Picture fave which will play into things). See how it goes but wouldn’t mind a DiCaprio win, guy has deserved it for a while.

  151. Pierre de Plume
    January 18, 2014

    Vily, your analysis sounds good to me. At the moment, though, McConaughey seems to have an edge but not a comfortable one.

    Nyong’o’s BFCA and SAG wins – topped by her charistmatic presence and gracious, heart-felt speeches, have changed my mind about J Law winning.

    All things considered, the Oscar is American Hustle’s to lose.

    . . . and I agree – Rita Moreno was in top form.

  152. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    @ Jeremy. I actually thought that Leo’s speeches at the Globes and at the BFCA were both very classy – praising Scorsese, etc, his co-stars. He is after a great actor – needs to show some confidence. But let’s not kid ourselves – he’s the underdog here but I kind of like that. It’s McConaughey who is Cocky – to me anyway.

  153. JP
    January 18, 2014

    I think Cuarón is taking DGA. So… I think tomorrow is crucial for 12 Years a Slave. If it misses PGA, I really can’t see it winning Best Picture at the Oscars.

  154. JP
    January 18, 2014

    So great to see Jared Leto win the award after giving a tour de force performance. He’s a natural. Hope this brings him back to do more movies.
    I love Michael Fassbender, but he will sweep the awards for another performance someday, not this one.

    It’s looking like what we saw tonight for the actors will repeat itself on Oscar night.

    Love Emma Thompson, she’s so funny and talented.

  155. Jeremy
    January 18, 2014

    the only thing I can say at this point is that since the Oscars switched to the preferential/expanded field voting in 2009, the PGA/DGA/Oscars have all matched up. Inglorious Basterds and The Help won at SAG and still lost all three of those awards.

    The PGA will decide all.

  156. John C.
    January 18, 2014

    No real big surprises today. AH is the exactly the type of film that wins Best Ensemble at the SAGS. If 12YAS had won, the Oscar race would essentially over.

    I still fully expect 12YAS to win the PGA and remain the frontrunner of the race and I fully expect Cuaron to win DGA and Best Director at the Oscars.

  157. Thomas
    January 18, 2014



  158. Patrick
    January 18, 2014

    The race doesn’t start tomorrow; it ends tomorrow. I am 99% sure that the winner of the PGA will be the eventual Oscar winner. My gut tells me the PGA is now between AH and Gravity (the latter with a slight edge).

  159. John C.
    January 18, 2014

    One sign that AH is not going to take over the world by storm is that J-Law did NOT win Best Supporting Actress tonight.

  160. Odee
    January 18, 2014

    And SHAME on the SAGS. It is absolutely shameful that Emma Thompson has never won a SAG. What the hell is THAT all about???

  161. GoOnNow
    January 18, 2014

    BAFTA is much more irrelevant for the oscar race than SAG.

    Even if Blanchett does not win the BAFTA that will mean little to the big picture and the Oscar win.

    Dench or Thompson could win the BAFTA, I don’t see Adams getting it.

    Also I think 12 Years A Slave will be the big thing at BAFTA, not American Hustle.

    Blanchett’s story is much more different than Christie’s.
    She has won every possible award out there with the exception of a few tiny critics awards which went to actresses that were not Amy Adams.

    Adams’ wins at the Globes and the BFCA are a fact simply because she was not competing in the same category as Blanchett.

  162. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    Claudiu Dobre. You just don’t want 12 Years A Slave to win, just like I don’t want AH to win. Tomorrow’s PGA will be an important indicator, you are not so sure if AH is going to win PGA just because SAG ensemble went to AH, are you? The Hurt Locker, The Artist all lost the best SAG ensemble cast. Why can’t it happen to AH? Especially 12 Years is a such an important film.

  163. Hawkeye
    January 18, 2014

    Well, American Hustle was a bit of a surprise. How do they give a film Best Cast when they didn’t even find it worthy of getting more than one individual nomination (an award it didn’t even win)? Also, how do you nominated another film for almost all of the categories and NOT give it the big prize? SAG continues to be confusing. Luckily Best Ensemble doesn’t mean much of anything for the Oscars. Only 9/19 films have gone on to win Best Picture, but you also have to factor in that many of their choices have been the favorite for Best Picture (American Hustle is currently not). Still fully expecting the PGA to go to 12 Years a Slave…. though Gravity would be better.

  164. Cassius
    January 18, 2014

    Is there any prize for SAG Predictions contest?

  165. steve50
    January 18, 2014

    Just realized I missed the In Memoriam segment. I was watching Rita Moreno/Googie Gomez clips on youtube, laughing my ass off.

    Does that mean I’m going to hell?

  166. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    @GoOnNow.I disagree. The SAGS are done and over with. The BAFTAs will be right in the middle of Oscar Voting.

    Think about it. If PGA goes for 12 Years a Slave and DGA goes to Cuaron (as expected) the BAFTA going for 12 Years will force the OSCARS to go the same route.

    Think about it. A British made film by a Black Director about American History winning in England but Americans not willing to embrace it – that would send shockwaves to the world – basically saying that Americans are unwilling to accept the past.

    Now if PGA goes for Gravity and DGA goes for Gravity, then BAFTA may go that route too and then Gravity takes it. If PGA goes to American Hustle, DGA still goes to Gravity and I Refuse to see BAFTA giving to American Hustle.

    The PGA is HUGE for either American Hustle or 12 Years because DGA is ABSOLUTELY going to Alfonso Cuaron. He’s a SURE bet there. A technical achievement unsurpassed by any director this year.

    It would be a crazy WILD ride guys. Get ready! :-) I just pray for LEO. Come on!!! The Oscars have to share the wealth this year.

  167. WW
    January 18, 2014

    I’m rooting for Leto to win, but boy, that was a lousy speech he gave tonight. Or I should say, read? It’s so boring and lacks spontaneity. At least he didn’t go on about getting a Brazilian wax, like at the Globes.


  168. representDLV
    January 18, 2014

    People keep saying that 12 Years a Slave is and “important” film, why? What makes it so important? Because it’s about slavery? Because its Director is black? I just don’t know why it’s so important.

  169. Akumax
    January 18, 2014

    American Hustle is a great example of American entertaining intelligent cinema where acting is the beating heart of the storytelling.

    I don’t understand all this hate… it is not a film unworthy of winnings awards. And that comes from someone who cannot stop loving Gravity and would give that film every award on the planet.

  170. Jeremy
    January 18, 2014

    @Vily: I’d be careful on being so absolutely sure about Cuaron winning DGA. Like I said, since 2009, the BP winner is always the PGA winner and the Oscars’s BP as well, and even doing a mega-popular, biggest technical achievement of the year didn’t give James Cameron a DGA, either. I think whoever wins the PGA stands a very high chance of winning the DGA, too.

  171. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    The only way American Hustle can win is if win the PGA. Otherwise, forget it. DGA is going to Cuaron no matter what. You can bet the house on it. If that means Oscars will split, then split. If PGA goes to Gravity, then Gravity wins. If PGA goes to 12 Years then it might go all the way, albeit again with a split with Cuaron.

    Cuaron is winning either way. He’s as good as lock! Leto is lock too and Blanchett is very close to a Lock.

    McConaughey would like to think that he is a lock but he is going up against the KING Leo so watch out there. I just hope the Academy will be nice and embrace DiCaprio. Please, do so!

  172. Claudiu Dobre
    January 18, 2014

    “Inglorious Basterds and The Help won at SAG and still lost all three of those awards.”

    Inglorious Basterds is actually the only SAG Ensemble winner to have lost Best Picture without having been snubbed for anything important. Its themes made it an unlikely winner, however, plus it wasn’t in the top two most nominated films at the Oscar (which we know is very bad). So American Hustle is now, in fact, in a better position than any previous SAG Ensemble winner that lost the Oscar – and in a better position than even some that won, like Crash.

    So, like I said, not immediately decisive, but a pretty bad sign for the other two…

    (The full list of SAG Ensemble winners that lost BP:

    Apollo 13 – no director nomination;
    The Birdcage – not a BP nominee;
    The Full Monty – no editing & PGA nominations;
    Traffic – no PGA nomination;
    Gosford Park – no editing, DGA & PGA nominations;
    Sideways – no editing nomination;
    Little Miss Sunshine – no director or editing nominations;
    Inglorious Basterds – see above;
    The Help – no director, editing, screenplay or DGA nominations.)

  173. Hera
    January 18, 2014


    It wasn’t a surprise at all. A good comedy ensemble can win against very strong dramatic ensembles. The Full Monty won ensemble against Titanic, As Good As It Gets, LA Confidential and Good Will Hunting. No one could believe it. Little Miss Sunshine beat The Departed. No surprise at all the 12 Years a Slave lost.

  174. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    @Jeremy you have a point but Cuaron is beloved and he truly did something that all the directors will want to embrace. This years will be crazy. No film will win more than 3-4 Oscar with Gravity taking the most.

    PGA will decide the Best Picture winner – I concur there. But Director is going to Cuaron.

  175. John C.
    January 18, 2014

    James Cameron lost the DGA and Best Director at the Oscars because he’s known as the biggest a-hole in the industry and there was the whole “Let’s make history and reward a female director WHO HAPPENS to be Cameron’s ex-wife, double win for us” mentality.

  176. PaulinJapan
    January 18, 2014

    Vily, take a chill pill and realize that McConnaughey has it in the bag. He’s won the GG, Critics Choice and now SAG, the latter being the most important precursor of the lot. Not to mention that he also gave the best performance of the nominees.

    However, the don’t let reason and facts get in the way of your animosity towards a talented actor, who could have just continued churning out crappy rom-coms for a nice paycheck, but instead chose the harder option.

  177. John C.
    January 18, 2014

    Make no mistake, Cameron deserved Best Director that year, but didn’t get it.

    Cuaon comes with no such baggage, he seems to be assured Best Director, and richly deserving.

  178. ballyhoo
    January 18, 2014

    I really wouldn’t vote for an actress because she’s overdue. That would be a great disservice to her profession. Now if she gave the best performance of her career and was by far the best performance amongst her peers, I wouldn’t hesitate to cast my vote for her.

    Just sharing.

  179. Jeremy
    January 18, 2014

    Well, if they’re disqualifying assholes, we can kiss O. Russell’s chances goodbye

  180. WW
    January 18, 2014

    Hawkeye, I think SAG voters just wanted to spread the wealth. By giving Ensemble to ”American Hustle,” they didn’t HAVE to give a solo award to Lawrence. (Again, she had won a SAG last year, too.) The 5 SAG awards for films (here) went to 4 different pictures.

    Bruce Dern doesn’t seem to be catching on. He lost the Golden Globe, Critics’ Choice and now SAG. And somehow I doubt he’ll win BAFTA. Will he just be an Oscar also-ran? … Late last summer, some bloggers believed that Dern would’ve stood a better chance positioning himself for Supporting Actor (instead of running in the far more competitive Best Actor race). Dern told the Hollywood Reporter: ”If I go for Supporting, I’m a whore.” Would Dern have done any better in Supporting, or would he have just lost to Leto?

  181. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    Goonnow: Actually, no Blanchett sounds a lot like Christie in 2008 who was winning just about everything except a few minor awards, most of which went to Ellen Page. And yet Cottilard got the BAFTA and then the Oscar after winning a Globe (and keep in mind that there was no ceremony that year due to the writer’s strike so Cottilard didn’t even get to do a speech to win folks over like Adams did). I do think Blanchett will get it but just pointing out that it’s hardly the first time the supposed front-running lock doesn’t get it in the end.

  182. WW
    January 18, 2014

    James Cameron didn’t win the DGA and Oscar for ”Avatar,” but let’s not forget that he had already won those awards for ”Titanic.”

  183. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    If PGA goes to American Hustle tomorrow, the race is pretty much over, I am sorry to say. I will totally concede tomorrow if PGA goes to AH, but the more I think about it, the more I just can’t imagine the same producers who voted for The Hurt Locker will go for the lame fest AH. AH got a big cast, popular starts, it makes sense that it won the ensemble. 12 Years got a whole bunch of less known actors, that is how I justify 12 Yeas’s lost tonight. Can’t wait for tomorrow, I understand Sasha’s prediction, she is lowering the expectation so she won’t be too disappointed if AH wins. If it AH wins tomorrow, I am really done posting anything on this site or IMDB. It will be just another year like Crash winning over Brokeback Mountain. Oh well. Let’s hope the producers pick the truly best film of 2013, 12 Years A Slave.

  184. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    I don’t mind Gravity pulling an upset. Anything but American Hustle.

  185. Cassius
    January 18, 2014

    Yeah, it can happen, we’ve some examples. But TONIGHT I just don’t see how McConaughey, Leto and Blanchett could lose at Oscars.

    My predictions after Oscar noms are still the same:

    PICTURE – 12 YAS
    DIRECTOR – McQueen
    ACTOR – McConaughey (*)
    ACTRESS – Blanchett (*)
    SUPP ACTOR – Leto (*)
    SUPP ACTRES – Lupita

    Yeah, no winnigs for AH in the main categories, that’s my NGNG. Its only chance is ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY. Remember:

    SILVER LININGS – 8 noms, 1 winning (J-Law)
    THE FIGHTER – 7 noms, 2 winnigs (Bale and Leo)

  186. Cassius
    January 18, 2014


    EDITING – Gravity (*)

    (*) = Locks

  187. Claudiu Dobre
    January 18, 2014

    “Claudiu Dobre. You just don’t want 12 Years A Slave to win, just like I don’t want AH to win. Tomorrow’s PGA will be an important indicator, you are not so sure if AH is going to win PGA just because SAG ensemble went to AH, are you? The Hurt Locker, The Artist all lost the best SAG ensemble cast. Why can’t it happen to AH? Especially 12 Years is a such an important film.”

    See my previous post for stats proving why it (probably) can’t happen to AH. And I DO want 12 Years a Slave to win, BELIEVE ME. I BADLY want it to win – it’s my no.1 of the year. It’s just not happening, and Sasha called it ages ago. But I do hope I’m wrong, more so than ever before! But not really, because I HATE false hope…

    “I think whoever wins the PGA stands a very high chance of winning the DGA, too.”

    This, of course!… I mean, just because I personally can’t picture Russell winning the DGA, it doesn’t mean it won’t happen.

    “DGA is going to Cuaron no matter what. You can bet the house on it.”

    If Gravity doesn’t win the PGA, I’ll take that action, Vily! You’ll be homeless, my friend… :) OR we could bet on McConaughey vs DiCaprio – in that case, you’ll DEFINITELY end up on the street!

    “People keep saying that 12 Years a Slave is and “important” film, why? What makes it so important? Because it’s about slavery? Because its Director is black? I just don’t know why it’s so important.”

    For me personally, it’s only important because it’s really, really good…

    And yes, if we’re honest, the race will probably turn boring after tomorrow. As it does every year… It’s been nice hoping for a while and I’ve enjoyed our debates here at AD – truly the best site for following the Oscar race!

  188. ballyhoo
    January 18, 2014

    WMeyer. No. Adams is part of an ensemble. Cotillard was the sole focus of the film, much like Blanchett is in Blue Jasmine. Consider the heftiness of the roles these women are playing and not just the awards and nominations they are getting.

    Amy was at her best in Junebug. I want to see her in a larger role and not just a part of an ensemble before I get swayed by the idea that I should vote for her, besides the fact that her performance in American Hustle be considered much better than Cate’s in Blue Jasmine.

    It’s a towering performance. Why should she be denied an Oscar?

  189. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    We will see about PGA tomorrow. We will see.

  190. John C.
    January 18, 2014

    ObamasWins:”12 Years got a whole bunch of less known actors, that is how I justify 12 Yeas’s lost tonight.”

    I wouldn’t go that far. Fassbender, Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, and Brad Pitt are all well known and respected actors. Of course its lead Chiwetel is less known.

    AH is just a movie completely carried by its acting, whereas while 12YAS has supreme acting showcases as well, its also carried by its very powerful story. There is no such powerful story (or really ANY story) to speak of in AH, the entire movie is a pure 100% showcase for its 5 actors and they all perform brilliantly.

    The Best Ensemble at SAG means very little in terms of Best Picture at Oscars. PGA will be vital this year.

  191. Vily
    January 18, 2014


    Until McConaughey beats Leo at an awards show I won’t buy.

    By the looks of if, the only place they would go head 2 head would be at the Oscars. I’d like to think that victory lies in the preparation so since we have a little less than 6 weeks to go, Leo has a realistic shot.

    Let’s let McConaughey enjoy his win tonight and will talk again later. 4 time (soon to be 5 time Oscar nominee) vs 1st time newbie Oscar nominee – don’t know. Think about who will be the BIGGER if not THE BIGGEST news of the night. Leo winning for Best Actor may surpass even the Best Picture Winner at the Oscar if Leo wins. It would be SO SO Memorable!!!

  192. Gage Creed
    January 18, 2014

    Marion Cotillard had won a handful of critics awards before winning the Globe and BAFTA. She didn’t emerge out of the blue to get the Oscar. Amy Adams will probably have a better shot next year with that Big Eyes movie…

  193. Robert A.
    January 18, 2014

    I don’t know. I really don’t buy this whole argument that Leo is a strong contender for the win at the Oscars. What is all of this based on, other than fandom? He was pretty much a non-entity with the critic awards. He wasn’t nominated for the major Best Actor category at BFCA and they have six nominees. He wasn’t nominated for SAG. All he’s won is GG Best Actor/CM and the comic actor award at BFCA.

    If he does indeed win BAFTA, then there’s an outside chance for him to win. But that’s the only possible path to victory that I can see. WoWS is a divisive film. The movie’s passionate fans helped get it the Oscar nominations, but to win the Oscar you need more broad support. Nominations favor passion, wins favor broader support, and this type of performance–large, comic, partying, hedonistic–tends not to win Oscars. AMPAS usually goes for more “ennobling” or “sympathetic” performances (except for those times when they’re falling for the tour-de-force murderer performances).

  194. Scott
    January 18, 2014

    Praise be the men of The Dallas Buyers Club. Once again so deserved and Helen Mirren to boot? How bad can that be?

  195. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    Ballyhoo, I agree, ensemble for Adams is why Blanchett has more of a lead in Actress but just pointing out factors that can shake things. After all, one can argue Lawrence was more an ensemble in “Silver Linings’ yet she won the Oscar over Riva and Chastain who were the major focus for their films. And I can name a dozen performances off the top of my head in the last five years alone that should have won Best Actress and didn’t from Viola Davis just two years ago, Riva last year, Tilda Swinton not even NOMINATED for “We Need To Talk About Kevin” and many more. “Why should she be denied an Oscar?” Well, can say that about a lot who were denied and again, the fact she already has one may affect some of the voting as we all know Academy members can go differently than the previous pack. They love their drama and stories and having a four-time Supporting loser get her first statue for Leading is something hard for many voters to resist.

  196. ObamaWins
    January 18, 2014

    “Fassbender, Cumberbatch, Paul Giamatti, and Brad Pitt are all well known and respected actors. Of course its lead Chiwetel is less known.”
    The main players in 12 Years are all not very familiar names. Pitt, Giamatti, have very small roles in the film. I hope SAG’s win means very little. We will see about tomorrow’s PGA. Golderby is predicting Gravity to win best picture with 12 Years as a spoiler, I think those what so called “experts” are all wrong. It is either AH or 12 Years a Slave. If it is the latter, the race is over for 12 Years or vice versa!

  197. Vily
    January 18, 2014

    I concur that Leo might not have the critics support that Ejiofor or McConaughey have. However, what he does have is an OVERDUE narrative and what I’d like to think as the support of a lot of Academy members. It’s been 20 years since his first Oscar Nomination. Come on. If they give it to McConaughey it would be disgraceful. The guy hasn’t DONE anything until the last 3 years so now he does a very good movie and he wins right away. No way. I know that he is looking good with the GG/BFCA/SAG win but LEO has the STAR Power and is SITTING on a GG/BFCA win himself while also being BAFTA nominee.

    When De Niro won for Raging Bull in 1980 in a very divisive film, he also won the GG and was nominated by the BAFTA.

    The Oscars want to be viewed as being recognized by the BEST in the World. There are so many actors and people who want Leo to win. That narrative will take MORE and MORE shape as the coming weeks take hold. The McConaissance story will run out of gas in a month…

  198. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    And yes, I know Cottilard didn’t come out of nowhere but read all the prediction stuff in ’08, she really was seen a third behind the seemingly unbeatable Christie and newbie Page as she was in a foreign language film and had pretty much no standing in Hollywood yet claimed the Oscar anyhow.

  199. Alper
    January 18, 2014

    Cate Blanchett will win Bafta. no Amy or Emma or Judi. they have no chance to win. just sayin’

  200. Thomas
    January 18, 2014

    Dallas Buyers Club keeps with prejudice of conservative people has of homosexuals and transexuals because the film shows a world of sexual life and sickness, the death sick HIV.
    By that reason prefers 12 Years a Slave where the actors gives the racism and not promoting it.

  201. JP
    January 18, 2014

    Amy Adams is not winning this year. But the road with American Hustle will pave the way for her big win next year with Tim Burton-Harvey Weinstein’s Big Eyes.

  202. Scott
    January 18, 2014

    Yes Robert A. I agree. There’s no great Leo movement afloat and for a character who is basically an asshole? People need to look to past winners of best actor to see what is rewarded. I’ve said it before but it’s given in general to either heroes or total monsters and an obnoxious ass is neither.

  203. Markie27
    January 18, 2014

    I think i’m the only one who thinks Lupita did not give the best supporting performance of the year that is isn’t a JLaw fan. I still think Julia Roberts gave the best performance of the five nominees followed by Sally Hawkins who gave a pained performance in Blue Jasmine. Even though Cate gave the best performance in any category, Sally Hawkins held her own when they share a scene together. It’s such a pity.

  204. Claudiu Dobre
    January 18, 2014

    The fact that he’s a first-time nominee only helps McConaughey’s chances, actually…

  205. g
    January 18, 2014

    Well i was hoping against hope that 12 years would win tonight, but oh well. I don’t know why I didn’t really enjoy ah, all my friends loved it. But to me it was just blah except for Jennifer Lawrence. She blew me away! Can’t wait for the PGA:)

  206. Andrew
    January 18, 2014

    Am a huge Blanchett fan and will be delighted to see her win the Oscar. But boy oh boy Streep on Osage County is incredible: the best performance by anyone in recent years.

    And Roberts’s performance is much better than her Oscar winning Brockovich

    I’m not sure why the film didnt get a BP nomination: too dark?

  207. Robert A.
    January 18, 2014

    “When De Niro won for Raging Bull in 1980 in a very divisive film, he also won the GG and was nominated by the BAFTA.”

    Come on, Vily. For one, Raging Bull wasn’t nearly as divisive/controversial as WoWS has turned out to be. Secondly, De Niro won just about all the critical awards that year besides the GG–NY and LA as well as NBR. No one was touching De Niro for a win. Not even close. Thirdly, Raging Bull was drama and had that “physical transformation” thing that Oscar tends to love…and Matthew McConaughey has that going for him this year.

    “There are so many actors and people who want Leo to win.”

    I know there are lot of Leo fans on the Interwebs who want him to win. But how do you know there are “so many actors” who want him to win, or more so than they want McConaughey to win? Did you take a poll of AMPAS members? That’s just an assumption on your part. And Leo’s been passed by for nominations many times before, so I’m not sure that indicates unwavering Academy support. I’m not sure they feel this driving need to reward him just because he’s “overdue” and been nominated four times in the past 20 years. Amy Adams has been nominated more than that in the past few years alone, and it’s doubtful she’s winning, either.

  208. Silvana
    January 18, 2014

    12 Years a Slave is very much better than American Hustle and Dallas Buyers Club.
    First, 12 Years a Slave is superb, great direction, wonderful and potent script and insuperable performances of Ejiofor, Nyong’o, Fassbender and Paulson.
    Second, American Hustle is boring, ridiculous and fulls of overacted performances of Bale, Lawrence, Cooper and Adams.
    Third, Dallas Buyers Club is overrated for critics, it does not deserves the all awards and nomination it has. This movie promotes homophobia and transphobia because just shows the world of right-wing heterosexual believes of LBGT people lives, a world of wild sexual life and sickness.

  209. Me34
    January 18, 2014

    “Sally Hawkins who gave a pained performance in Blue Jasmine”
    In what moment? Probably less than 2 minutes when she finds out Louis C.K.’s character is married (and she was mostly dissapointed).
    I seriously don’t get the love for this performance (there’s tons of people here who are crazy about it, but I think they’re thinking more of her performance for “Happy go lucky”). Great accent (waaay better than Blanchett), but she seriously doesn’t do any impressive. I can make a case for all the other Oscar nominees (I’m seriously fine with all them except for Hawkins nominated). Also, I agree, Julia’s great… the fish scene is sooo good (but her character is even more leading than Meryl’s, should be located in the other actress category).

  210. MWeyer
    January 18, 2014

    Andrew: Yeah, if Streep hadn’t just won two years ago, I think she’d be getting a lot more push.

    Again, you never know as this time last year on this very site was all the talk on how Riva was “sure” for the win and I and others pointed out Lawrence still had stuff going for her and she did in fact win. Personally, I rather like that this year isn’t as set in stone as previous years have been, makes for a more exciting show.

  211. GoOnNow
    January 18, 2014

    @ MWeyer

    Amy Adams doesn’t even have a SAG nom and that’s a lot to think about ;)

    Also, I just checked Christie’s wins and they are not the sweep Blanchett’s are. Neither is the weight of the performance, for that matter, though a total genius, it has strong supporting vibes.

    Also, Marion’s overall number of wins together with the monumental praise of her performance kill possible resemblances to Adams.

    Adams has 2 award wins for Actress, 2! and all that’s left is BAFTA. I don’t know why we’re having this conversation LOL.

  212. Robert A.
    January 18, 2014

    “What the hell is wrong with Cuba Gooding Jr. He just ran on stage screaming “white men, happy MLK day.”

    I don’t think that’s what he said. My understanding–and what has been reported–is that he just yelled, “Happy MLK day!”

  213. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    I just watched 12 YAS again tonight at the movies to a packed , silent house ; this is a movie that truly deserves the BP , BA, BSA , best screenplay ….HOWEVER …there’s the way the world should be and a way the world is ….SAG is not decisive , 12 YAS CAN still win but it simply MUST win PGA to stay in the race …..GRAVITY is a spent force and so it’s AH or 12 YAS

    As I wrote earlier , AH is this years ARGO , an average movie that is digestible and the least objectionable , a movie that could/should win BP Oscar in a poor year for movies ; It should NEVER beat a movie like 12 YAS , but unfortunately I think it will …furthermore it will carry with it in the momentum best screenplay and VERY likely BEST DIRECTOR ….has any director ever won an oscar for a technical achievement alone ?…I don’t think so and that’s the reason why there will be no split …GRAVITY is fading fast

  214. representDLV
    January 18, 2014

    How exactly is Gravity fading fast? By getting the most Oscar nominations?

    12YAS is just as average as AH.

  215. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    The best barometer for the strength of 12 YAS is EJIOFOR ; he should , unquestionably ,win the B A oscar , but the fact that he’s losing repeatedly and is almost certain to lose to Mconaughey is the ”canary in the coalmine ”…12 YAS , it seems , doesn’t have the strength to get itself over the finish line first

    The failure of EJIOFOR and the success of BALE in being nominated are cleary the two smoking guns that tell us everything about how this race will end ; I wish it wasn’t so , but it simply is

    The frivolous will defeat the important …I gave the Academy the benefit of the doubt last year when ARGO defeated LINCOLN; after all , Lincoln was wordy , tedious and even boring , while Argo was a movie about making movies , about Hollywood and America riding to the rescue ; I can well understand how it seduced the voters with it’s siren song …12 YAS is not wordy and boring , not historically highbrow , nor is AH a movie about making movies , it’s just frivolous , with a bit of humour and titilating sex and will apeal to a frivolous , vacuous frame of mind

    As Oscar Wild lamented ”The play was a success , but the audience merely a failure ”…too true Oscar , TOO TRUE !

  216. Monica
    January 18, 2014

    WW, Bale is still filming Exodus in England.

    I agree, Leo gives the best performance of his career. I’ll be very happy if he wins the Oscar.

  217. Jay
    January 18, 2014

    I have a feeling 12 Years a Slave is going to clean up at the BAFTAs.
    Best Director belongs to Cuaron.
    PGA will be the big decider.
    If 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture and Supporting Actress at the Oscars will American Hustle go home empty handed?

  218. JPNS Viewer
    January 18, 2014

    Congrats to all of the winners.

    American Hustle winning Best Ensemble Cast is a given – kudos.

    Slightly disappointed Jennifer Lawrence couldn’t garner the SAG trophy this year.

    Matthew seems unstoppable at this point as well.

  219. Hera
    January 18, 2014

    It’s certainly not “unquestionable” that Ejiofor should win BA since he keeps losing. Right now he’s tied for last place with Bale trailing Matt and Leo and probably Dern

  220. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    People keep saying that 12 Years a Slave is and “important” film, why? What makes it so important? Because it’s about slavery? Because its Director is black? I just don’t know why it’s so important.

    I would make an educated guess and say that your frame of mind is exactly why 12 YAS is losing ; the inability to recognise the ”important from the frivolous ” and is reflective of a social phenomenon at work in society at large ..folks who prefer to live in a pleasurable , comfy virtual reality instead of seeing the world as it really is ; folks who prefer to be trapped in the pleasurable prison of the present than delve into the dark past and your tastes in movies are just a reflection of that , whether it be a hustle caper or a sci fi movie , it’s all fantasy, dude !

  221. Luke
    January 18, 2014

    Yeah I seriously don’t understand the hyperbolic love for 12YAS. Virtually all of the plaudits for the movie seem the stress the “IMPORTANCE” of its subject matter or the historic victory for Steve McQueen. Other than that, it’s a fairly self-indulgent film that has little profound or new to say about the institution of slavery.

    I went in wanting to absolutely adore the film, but came out feeling like I had just witnessed The Passion of the Slave. The more is less lynching scene highlighting that problem. I found the acting to be a mixed bag as well. Chiwetel, Lupita, Giamatti and Adepero Oduye were quite good while Dano, Pitt, Cumberbatch and Fassbender stuck out poorly.

    Personally, I’m still waiting for the truly great slavery film.

  222. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    There will be NO SPLIT …winner takes it all

    Unless 12 YAS wins tomorrow night then American Hustle will win Best Picture , Best Director and at least Best Screenplay

    Did anyone really believe that ARGO should of won best screenplay against the masterful LINCOLN last year , AND YET it did as it was carried along with the winning momentum

    Cuaron aint going to win BD simply on tech oscars ; at least that’s the way I see it , I could be wrong , but I doubt it

  223. Al Robinson
    January 18, 2014

    Does anyone know if the PGAs will be on TV tomorrow?

  224. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    Here in the UK where folks like myself bet large ammounts of money on the Oscars the betting odds can be relective of the race …ergo , 12 YAS has been the odds on favorite since september with GRAVITY a poor second and AH a distant third

    But now things are changing fast ; GRAVITY is fading fast to 12-1 offering a perfect opportunity for those who delude themselves into believing it will win …..AMERICAN HUSTLE is rapidly increasing to a close second and will soon be a co- favorite with 12 YAS when only one week ago was 7-1…it’s clearly got the momentum just like ARGO did last year when it came from the rear and defeated LINCOLN.

    ..the writing is on the wall for those who are willing to see , AMERICAN HUSTLE will defeat 12 YAS

  225. Pierre de Plume
    January 18, 2014

    I agrree with Buford and those who do not see a Cuaron win as a foregone conclusion. O’Russell is still a contender and the PGA winner will be telling.

  226. Scott
    January 18, 2014

    “SPORTING a new short haircut and kissing Leonardo DiCaprio while he clutches his Best Actor Golden Globe would be enough to get any girl noticed – but in the case of Toni Garrn, we’d noticed her already. Since coming to our attention as a catwalk favourite with countless designers, Garrn secured a place on the Victoria’s Secret catwalk in 2011, and began dating DiCaprio in 2013 – two little things that sent her name soaring up the hot list for 2014.

    Discovered in 2006 aged just 13 – “Before I could even think about who my idols were, I had already started modelling”

  227. TGB
    January 18, 2014

    I don’t understand the 12YAS detractors. Why can Hollywood honor films about the Holocaust (Schindler’s List, Life Is Beautiful, The Pianist, The Reader, et al.) over and over again but the first feature film to truly, masterfully show the horrors of American slavery gets dismissed as self-indulgent torture porn. Let’s remember that this film was adapted from a slave narrative. These people actually existed and endured all of this so-called self-indulgence.

    These comments are not always about race/racism, they really aren’t. But sometimes they are.

  228. tintin
    January 18, 2014

    Dicaprio must win the Oscar!!! Please!!

  229. Mel
    January 18, 2014

    Everyone really needs to think about the significance (or insignificance rather) of SAG awards in predicting Oscars, especially since the merger with AFTRA. SAG-AFTRA is not just actors, it’s over 120,000 professionals working in film and broadcasting in various roles. I’m a member of SAG-AFTRA. All members are eligible to vote and I am not an actor and I don’t work in film. I really think giving SAG awards significance b/c it’s “actors” and that’s the largest branch of the Academy is a mistake. It’s way more than just actors and way more than just people in film now.

  230. WW
    January 18, 2014

    Monica, thanks for the update on Bale’s whereabouts. I wondered if he was one of these actors who feels he’s above the awards circuit.

    Ideally, awards are judged on the content of the film, but realistically, you have to campaign if you want attention. For instance, Robert Redford blamed Lionsgate, the distributor of ”All Is Lost,” for the Oscar snubs his movie got. He says Lionsgate didn’t want to spend the money, and that there was no campaign to get it into the mainstream.

    But Hollywood-Elsewhere.com and GoldDerby.com have reported that Redford rarely ever campaigned for ”All Is Lost,” unlike Matthew McConaughey and Bruce Dern. He turned down various interviews, including a Q&A with the Hollywood Foreign Press (which probably doomed his chances for victory at the Golden Globes).

    In fairness to Redford, I’ll also bet that ”All Is Lost” played lousy at home on TV. One report says some Academy viewers turned off the movie after 20 or 30 minutes. Part of what makes ”All Is Lost” effective is feeling trapped with Redford, as you would if you saw it in a real theater.

  231. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    To be fair to the chances of GRAVITY ; whoever wins BP , then GRAVITY will still win the most Oscars……last years race was a two horse race between LINCOLN and ARGO and if this years is a repeat with 12 YAS and AH then it’s only fair to point out that this year is still very much a THREE HORSE RACE where GRAVITY could still sneak a victory from the other two battling it out ..it could happen , but it just seems unlikely and the bookies offering 12-1 odds on GRAVITY just seems to confirm that ; those guys are no fools , in fact they are as wily as a cayote and when something sounds too good to be true it usually is

  232. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    American Hustle is very much an actor’s movie and so it’s hardly surprising that it would win SAG …12 YAS can still save itself by winning PGA …IT MUST WIN TOMORROW NIGHT

  233. Buford T Justice
    January 18, 2014

    GRAVITY has some serious handicaps ; specifiically the screenplay and at times painful dialogue and that’s why it’s only 90 mins long ; there just aint much to it and GENERALLY SPEAKING , it will appeal to the under 40′s crowd more than the over 40′s and we all know the average age of the voter is 62….plus the fact that they don’t go for space movies …it is indeed a roller coaster ride that thrills but has little staying power and memory , merely a ”story told by an idiot filled with sound and fury , signifying nothing ” !

    It doesn’t need to be rewarded by BD Oscar , the tech Oscars are sufficient

  234. Koleś
    January 18, 2014

    Gravity won’t win BP, but with 5,6 or even 7 oscars it’s going to be the biggest winner of the evening. Best Director does look quite possible, the DGA will show, but VFX, two sound categories, cinematography, editing, score are locks or near locks. Both 12YAS and AH won’t get near these many Oscars. Hustle’s big win might be screenplay, but Her is a strong contender. I don’t think it’s going to get any acting Oscars, despite the 4 noms, but it it get’s screenplay and editing it will probably get BP. If Gravity wins editing 12YAS has the BP in the bag with screenplay, supporting actress, costumes, maybe production design and director.

  235. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    McConaughey is cocky, DiCaprio is classy. I like DiCaprio as a person, I don’t like McConaughey as a person. DiCaprio is overdue, McConaughey is not.

    That said, McConaughey gave the better performance of the two this year.

  236. WW
    January 19, 2014

    For Sasha, Vily and other ”Wolf” fans: The Wall Street Journal just did a story about ”Wall St.” and wonders it’ll lead to Leo’s first Oscar.


  237. Rebecca
    January 19, 2014

    In my opinion you can forget the Award season, because there are no really surprises anymore! For example, you can see that Blanchett will win the Oscar. Every year it is the same, where one actor or actress gets all the Awads and the other ones are just there to fill the room, if you kno what I mean…

  238. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014

    Thanks to Ryan and Sasha once again for providing this site!

    I got all the film acting races right. But not Ensemble. Still, 12 Years a Slave still has a strong chance to win Best Picture:

    12 Years a Slave: GG (DRAMA), BFCA
    American Hustle: GG (COMEDY), SAG, NYFCC
    Gravity: LAFCA
    DGA: ???
    PGA: ???
    BAFTA: ???
    OSCAR: ???


    Clearly Matthew McConaughey (who gave a brilliant performance in Dallas Buyers Club) is the frontrunner with GG (DRAMA), BFCA and SAG. However, Leonardo DiCaprio has the GG (COMEDY) and also is in a film that performed better than expected Oscar morning. Well, so did Dallas Buyers Club. But two words: Jonah Hill. That shows support. I know, I know- Hill got in for Moneyball too, but that was more expected. Leo also has the backstory and better film record then McConaughey. I can see Leo winning BAFTA, and with McConaughey not in the picture, this is where things get interesting. DiCaprio is definitely in this race.

    Think Waltz last year in Django Unchained (ironically also a DiCaprio film); Waltz had no SAG nomination, so Tommy Lee Jones took it. He was competing against Jones at the Globes and won. DiCaprio and McConaughey separately competed, and won at the Globes. DiCaprio even beating out early favorite Bruce Dern, who may never have another chance after Nebraska. Then Waltz and Jones go to the Oscars- Waltz wins. DiCaprio fans don’t give up- this is going to get crazy! Also remember Denzel Washington in Training Day. Wins LAFCA and (then AFI, when they did acting honors)- and loses GG (DRAMA) and SAG to Russell Crowe, still wins Oscar. It could happen!


    So happy for Cate Blanchett- and good for her to let the people know NOT to rush her, when they let Matthew run at the mouth like that. Blanchett now has: SAG GG (DRAMA) NYFCC LAFCA NSFC BFCA and only needs BAFTA and Oscar. Amy Adams won the Globe, but if she wins over Blanchett it will be a travesty. It was actually Sandra Bullock who was at the last rail to make this a race- because we all know Bullock gives speeches like no one else. With Blanchett secure with the SAG, she’s good to go- and it will be the most deserving Best Actress Oscar I have seen since Charlize Theron’s win in Monster (2003).


    Jared Leto, deserving and sweeping. Nothing is stopping him now. Michael Fassbender perhaps can spice it up with his forseen BAFTA win- but voters can vote for Leto here and then feel less guilty by checking DiCaprio in lead actor.


    Lupita Nyong’o has now made herself competitive for the Academy Award, and thank God! I would not be able to bare seeing Jennifer Lawrence’s SNL Skit take a second trophy. Nyong’o would have still been competitive with her brilliant BFCA win and speech, but the SAG is the extra icing on this beautiful cake. She is fresh, elegant and she rocked the hell out of her performance. It’s THAT good. She’s winning. Oscar voters are always hesitant to give back to back Oscars, unless you’re Katharine Hepburn, or Tom Hanks (giving legendary works back to back). Ms. Lawrence is 23- she has plenty of time to come back. And frankly, she won’t care if she loses (as she made clear with her scattered Globe speech).

    Lupita DOES need this and I think she has a strong career ahead of her. BAFTA is looking good for her. Julia Roberts would also be a deserving winner, but I think August: Osage County should be lucky it made it to the final party, as strong as the performances were. June Squibb and Sally Hawkins have small chances, but both deserve their slots. I just wish there were six- Oprah truly was worthy.


    I think Gravity wins this, but if not Steve McQueen more than deserves to be honored for his harsh and brutal filmmaking that was necessary and important.


    12 Years a Slave (though Philomena has British support)


    Her, Spike Jonze

    I will not stand for American Hustle’s mostly-ad libbed work to win over the most original story of the year (despite some calling it a Twilight Zone rip-off). Her is a Best Picture nominee too, voters like going for quirky here.

  239. Sammy
    January 19, 2014

    12YAS lost SAG Ensemble and this is an important barometer for the PGA. First it failed to get cinematography and sound nods and now it lost SAG ensemble to a mediocre film!!

    I expect Gravity to win PGA and DGA.

    I agree with Buford – There will be no BP/BD split this year.

  240. Rosethorne
    January 19, 2014

    I’m so happy for the recognition that Jared Leto has been getting this awards season – more than makes up for all the heartbreak of all the itty bitty independent films he makes that don’t see the proverbial light of day. That being said, as his fan, it’ll be bittersweet come March (when he inevitably wins that Oscar) – because it more than likely means that I won’t get to see Jared the actor in action for another few years (his band is actually re-starting their world tour again this Tuesday).

    I’m just hoping that his success in DBC will convince him not to spend too much time on an acting hiatus, and be more active in reading potential scripts. Then again, knowing Jared (with his belief of ‘going away in order to have something to say again’), another 6 year drought for his acting fans is still a valid fear :(

  241. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014

    I think there is a very strong possibility of there being a BP/BD split- and that’s because I don’t see David O. Russell winning the DGA and I def don’t see him winning the Oscar. He’s too controversial, not liked by all and then there are those damn criminal charges pending on him. And he’s not the legend Roman Polanski was to overcome it. Gravity easily could take Director and 12 Years winning Best Picture. Also Gravity is a DIRECTOR’s movie by far. And with the slew of other wins it is taking, this could be your Best Picture winner.

    American Hustle is competitive for:

    Best Picture
    Best Supporting Actress
    Best Original Screenplay
    Best Costumes
    Best Film Editing

    I don’t see it getting Production Design. Not Supporting Actor, Actress or Actor. And nope, not Director either. Jennifer Lawrence vs. Lupita Nyong’o in what is probably the biggest toss-up of the four acting races. Lawrence looked good to go early, still has NYFCC and NSFC- but Nyong’o has SAG, BFCA and LAFCA. Totally a two-way horse race. Both young and fresh, but Lawrence’s expiration date of freshness is wearing thin.

    And again, American Hustle doesn’t have the Argo pity wagon of “Oh Darn, we didn’t nominate Ben Affleck for Director- but we can still give it Best Picture- just let me scratch off Tony Kushner really quick so Terrio can get high and accept his Oscar. Oh and let’s throw it Editing too.” (though Argo was a masterfully Edited movie). Voters aren’t going to be in this position of “WE HAVE to give AH something to validate it’s Best Picture win.” They don’t have to validate anything if they don’t think it’s deserving. Just because PGA might go for AH doesn’t mean Oscar voters will. This is a divisive year. If 12 Years a Slave was missing crucial nods in Editing, Acting or Directing- fine. But it got in like Gravity and AH did with their key nods. Missing Cinematography does not mean you’re dead.

    This will be a race until Oscar night. BAFTA is going for 12 Years a Slave- I can feel it.

  242. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    (Please please reverse the thread from the latest to the earliest)

    Anyway, as I see it,

    12 Yrs = Lincoln (important, historical)
    AH = Argo (entertaining)

    Guess who’s going to win?

  243. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    Are there videos of the speeches?

  244. Zooey
    January 19, 2014

    Actually 12 Years A Slave isn’t a Brokeback Mountain, because ironically and sadly it’s still okay to be seen as homophobic, but no, it’s not okay to be seen as racist and I can see many, extremely many voters not seeing the film, but voting for it.

    Lupita has this Oscar. First, the performance is there. The film has support and she could be (SADLY!) its sole acting win. The critical acclaim is there – she won most of the critics, including the major LAFCA. Her main competition is a previous winner and a winner from last year. Lupita’s a beautiful, gorgeous woman. She has the down-to-Earth thing as well. And she’s extremely smart – her speeches are knockouts. I mean just look at Julia Roberts’s face at the end of Lupita’s speech last night. Julia Robert wants to win, I guess, but she can’t help it. She likes Lupita a great deal.

    On Ejiofor: I’ll hope for him to get the Oscar. MM simply doesn’t deserve it over Ejiofor and it’s sad that SAG – as always – votes for the famous one. That’s why I’ve never liked their awards.

    Blanchett and Leto are locked. By the way AMERICAN HUSTLE isn’t Argo. It’s more of Inglourious Basterds. It has a best picture nod, it has a large ensemble of recognizable faces (Bale, Adams, Lawrence, Cooper, Renner, with a cameo by DeNiro) and it won. Not every year we have ARGO. Not every year we have CRASH. In the last five years both THE HURT LOCKER and THE ARTIST lost the cast award and still won best picture.

  245. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014
  246. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014
  247. Zooey
    January 19, 2014

    Actually yes, missing cinematography doesn’t mean you’re done.

    You know what film missed it? THE LORD OF THE RINGS: THE RETURN OF THE KING! And it had all the precursors support for its cinematography, including ASC and BAFTA nods.

    And by the way, folks, Cate deserves a standing ovation. Maybe because she’s the big lock you never get up on your feet and the applause is always unenthusiastic. Shame on you! At least SAG proved one thing – Sandra Bullock fans have to deal with her not being a factor.

  248. Jason Travis
    January 19, 2014

    I tried posting links to the speeches, but the comments are waiting moderation. I assume links are a No-No until approved?

    • Ryan Adams
      January 19, 2014

      Jason Travis.
      One hyperlink passes the spam filter with no problem. But multiple links trigger moderation.

      Thanks for the links! They should be cleared for takeoff now.

  249. SeattleMoviegoer
    January 19, 2014

    good Lord! what planet is this? the loopy, messy, unfocused, pretentious, migraine of a movie wins best ensemble from the Actors guild? as if all these thespians long to work with David O. Russell? this whole awards season is deranged so far. i want to see real excellence honored and to hell with this crap about what’s hot and not and what has the buzz behind it. 12 YEARS A SLAVE is brilliant. so is NEBRASKA. the skill and real talent of an Alexander Payne or McQueen is light years ahead of Russell. i’m tired of garbage being set on an alter and worshiped by people who should know better.

  250. Yvette
    January 19, 2014

    Jerry Grant,
    I disagree. I see this: Mcconaughey is unscripted, unorthodox and passionate – he was talking, in his weirdly wonderful way, about acting as a visceral experience. Leo is smooth, composed, seems aloof. I like both, but don’t know them personally.
    Both are great actors and the work speaks for itself.

  251. ObamaWins
    January 19, 2014

    SeattleMoviegoer. AH has a a large cast of known faces and heartthrobs, that is why it won ensemble. I think PGA will go to 12 Years A Slave, and that should shut up the obnoxious DOR fans for a little while,lol

  252. julian the emperor
    January 19, 2014

    Obviously, BP is still up for grabs (we have an official frontrunner when PGA decides), but I think three of the acting races are pretty much a done deal: Blanchett (even though Adams is bound to get some “overdue” sympathy votes), Nyong’o (her eloquent speeches sealed the deal effectively, what a great representative for the whole film!) and, obviously, Leto.
    On the surface best actor seems just as settled, but I think there are several factors that make it an open race just yet: Leo being “overdue” and him not having been “head-to-head” with MM at any award shows so far: a crucial question mark. Also: If the academy embraces 12YAS in a big way Ejiofor is a possibility (like Dujardin for The Artist), and then you have a beloved veteran like Bruce Dern who could sneak in also, he will surely get a bigger share of the votes with the academy than with the GG or SAG. From now on we have the BAFTAs to look forward to with no MM in the field, which is an opportunity for Leo or Ejiofor to shine.
    All in all, I think it’s still a very open race…

  253. George
    January 19, 2014

    i am so sick of the notion that AH is going to take BP over 12YAS

  254. Tony
    January 19, 2014

    More than any other category, Best Picture is the one where the true honor is the nomination; the win is a crapshoot.

  255. julian the emperor
    January 19, 2014

    Tony: Or maybe the honor is in being on the outside looking in? Cue Inside Llewyn Davis, Blue is the Warmest Color, All is Lost, Before Midnight, Frances Ha etc.

  256. Sato
    January 19, 2014


    If that’s your argument, then why did Nyong’o won over Lawrence? Or why did the cast of “The King’s Speech” won over the cast of “The Fighter” (Bale, Adams, Wahlberg) and “The Social Network” (Timberlake, Garfield, Hammer, Eisenberg) or “The Help” over “Midnight in Paris” (Cotillard, McAdams, Brody, Sheen, Wilson).

    AH has the best ensemble of the year followed by “August: Osage County. Some people just have to accept that. And as much as I love the cast of 12 Years a Slave, I’ll just put them 3rd.

  257. John
    January 19, 2014

    I dont think Return of the King missing cinematography was a big dealmbecause it was largely expected to win alot and win BP. 12YAS, not quite as much faith in that. So the miss singnifies weakness.

  258. John
    January 19, 2014

    And I think , more and more, that BAFTA (in certain races) is an amazing barometer.

    They nommed Bale, Adams, Hawkins. They nommed Philomena. Marty got in Director, solidifying him. Other examples through the techs.

  259. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    Roger Friedman has an interesting take on these awards up to this point: The Oscars don’t matter.
    First, most or all of these nom’d movies will be on DVD by the time the Oscars come around (March) and the public would have moved on to the new movies coming out. Ride Along just did $40Mil boxo so the year is getting off to a good start.
    MOST of the awards have named the best picture, best actor, etc., so when the Oscars come about, there won’t be any surprises who wins; or the public won’t care.

    In summary, the Oscars need to be in the mix with these other awards shows for it to matter. Waiting until March to see who wins the Oscar is ridiculous.

  260. Paprika
    January 19, 2014

    No one has ever won Best Actor without being nominated for SAG, so if Leo won, it would be record-breaking. Not saying he won’t, but…

    And Redford did a Q&A with HFPA. He did plenty of media, way more than someone like Bale and about as much as Ejiofor. Kind of hilarious that Jeff Wells and Tom O’Neil are jumping on the “Redford didn’t campaign” train after predicting he would win the Oscar all season, right until he got snubbed for BAFTA. (They actually both predicted he’d win the Globe all along; why do that if he didn’t meet with HFPA?) I guess they need something to justify their inaccurate predictions in hindsight.

  261. representDLV
    January 19, 2014

    @Buford T Justice

    “I would make an educated guess and say that your frame of mind is exactly why 12 YAS is losing ; the inability to recognise the ”important from the frivolous ” and is reflective of a social phenomenon at work in society at large ..folks who prefer to live in a pleasurable , comfy virtual reality instead of seeing the world as it really is ; folks who prefer to be trapped in the pleasurable prison of the present than delve into the dark past and your tastes in movies are just a reflection of that , whether it be a hustle caper or a sci fi movie , it’s all fantasy, dude !”

    But why is 12YAS important? It’s not like it is the first movie to ever deal with slavery. There were 2 films about slavery in the running just last year.

    I personally have no problem delving into our dark past. But just because the subject matter is “dark” or “real” doesn’t automatically make the film better. I would love a great film about slavery, I just didn’t find 12YAS all that great. I liked Lincoln and Django more.

    • Ryan Adams
      January 19, 2014

      But why is 12YAS important? It’s not like it is the first movie to ever deal with slavery. There were 2 films about slavery in the running just last year.

      Django Unchained was about slavery the same way Abbott and Costello Meet Frankenstein was about monsters.

  262. Simone
    January 19, 2014

    The SAG wins are not so much as a surprise as they are just annoying and dull. Villy wrote something that I agree with –

    “Think about it. A British made film by a Black Director about American History winning in England but Americans not willing to embrace it – that would send shockwaves to the world – basically saying that Americans are unwilling to accept the past.”

    But I would stress not only “the past” but THEIR past. Brad Pitt said that it says a lot that non-Americans had to make this film, and it looks like it will take the British, yet again, to honor the film. For SAG to me more enamored with an A-list comedy ensemble instead of the world-class ensemble of 12YAS, says a lot about what this group values in film making. Par for course.

    Next stop: BAFTAs, where Ejiofor and Fassbender will finally gain some respect this awards season.

  263. Tony
    January 19, 2014

    To get in the five that you listed, which five would you displace? Smaller films don’t do very well at the box office, and I suspect that many of the various guild members haven’t seen them either. “Inside Llewyn Davis” is the only one of the five that grossed over $10M and probably was viewed by most voters. If there had been a 10th nominee, that would likely have been the one.

  264. Sammy
    January 19, 2014

    Julian – Best Actor race is over. McConaughey will take the Academy Award.

  265. Sammy
    January 19, 2014

    Tony – agreed. BP nomination is the most important thing for a film. It sort of makes history.

  266. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    I would love a great film about slavery, I just didn’t find 12YAS all that great. I liked Lincoln and Django more.
    ^^ You missed the point of 12 years a slave. The book was written from an insider’s view of the machinations of the plantation. (the plantation was the first phase of capitalism in this country) Never been done before. Harriet Tubman and Nat turner were Op-Editors and voiced their opinion about slavery. No one had ever come back and reported what it was really like; something like when the reporters were imbedded in the Iraqi war. (You notice no reporters are embedded in wars anymore?)
    So what Steve did was actually take the audience to the plantation via Solomon’s experience.
    It was the same with Gravity. We were not only observers, we felt as if we were out in space with the astronauts.

  267. Sammy
    January 19, 2014

    Tony – Tenth nominee would have been Blue Jasmine.

  268. Sammy
    January 19, 2014

    Inside Llewyn Davis is the victim of CBS Films. Coen Brothers need to hire Harvey for their next endeavour. I am sure they will end up with 10 Academy Award nominations…!!

  269. Nic V
    January 19, 2014

    IMO the only category in March up in the air is going to be Best Actor. I think after last night the playing field in that category has been completely leveled. Matthew has had a really good two years in film and Leo certainly has pumped up with Wolf. I think Jared solidifies his position but there is still the unknown factor of Jonah. I’m not so sure that Lupita is a shoo in for Supporting Actress. Classy woman and absolutely gorgeous but Jennifer Lawrence like it or not is very popular.

    I think that Cate will become the second or is it third actress to win a Supporting Oscar and a Best Actress? That you can take to the bank.

  270. steve50
    January 19, 2014

    What Sallyin Chicago said ^

    I don’t know why audiences are so afraid of this film. Yes, it was an unpleasant time in history, but so was the holocaust and, as a previous poster pointed out, quality films about that have no trouble connecting with audiences and reaping awards.

    Perhaps it’s racial, but I’d rather think it’s because the situation portrayed was domestic, not set in some foreign, barbarian country. It’s like the beauty queen who won’t look at or let anyone see her ugly duckling high school photos. They just don’t want to go there.

    I guess McQueen should consider it a badge of honour to have been so successful making a powerful film about a subject Americans would rather forget. He’s not a businessman, he’s an artist.

  271. Sammy
    January 19, 2014

    Nic V – You think Jonah Hill is a factor? It is over man. Jared is crushing whatever the competition is.

  272. Manuel
    January 19, 2014

    IF SAG ensemble is an important factor, they also nominated The Butler which did not get any Oscar noms at all

    I think there almost was a vote split between AH And 12YAS cause they have both been giving awards right and left

    !2 Years a Slave is an important movie cause we learn as an audience that also the white women were cruel, how free black men and women were taken because of their color and horrific politics at that time. 12YAS is also nuanced and the characters are 3 dimensional. Even the evil ones we kind of feel for. We learn more about the thoughts and way of living at that time. The hierarchy between the slaves and the hierarchy between the free white people as well. And its a movie about the dark American historical past and the movie is powerful, brutal and poetic. I think all the accolades shows how great this movie really is, but also how dangerous 12YAS feels for the Americans who don’t want to dwell on the horrific past and just go on.

    And because the hero is black, challenges the hero perspective and picture the film industry has produced since the birth of cinema.

  273. Buford T Justice
    January 19, 2014

    I watched 12 YAS again last night in a packed , but solomn theatre ; it was complete silence all the way through like we were a jury in a murder trial , which , in some ways we were
    It was the past come alive , the dead resurrected ,it was Solomon and Patsey personifying all those nameless victims and looming out of the dark past to testify in the present ” WE ARE HERE TO BARE WITNESS FOR THOSE NO LONGER LIVING ”

    Folks who watch a movie like this and are unable to recognise why it’s important , or if they do , then why an important movie should win over mere entertainment must be either soul dead or frivolous beyond belief

    This movie is a 21st century Hamlet …” THE PLAY’S THE THING AND WHEREIN CATCH THE CONCIENCE OF A KING ” ?

  274. Jerry Grant
    January 19, 2014

    If it were up to me, Jonah Hill would beat Jared Leto for Supporting Actor.

  275. ballyhoo
    January 19, 2014

    WMeyer And so is awarding a Best Actress to someone who’s overlooked and nominated in the Best Actress category and lost as well, and now giving her career best in a much more challenging role. That’s hard to resist too, isn’t it?

    In the end, it should always be the performance that matters. Marion won because she had the most challenging and convincing performance in her year. Amy will definitely appreciate it if she wins the Oscar for the role of a lifetime.

  276. Akumax
    January 19, 2014

    @ Buford T Justice,

    I’m glad Shakespeare in Love won instead of Saving Private Ryan and I’ll be glad if American Hustle or Gravity win BP this year.

    Do you know why? Because I think they are better films than 12 Years a Slave which is a very good film too.

    I don’t understand how this should define me as “soul dead or frivolous beyond belief”

    We are talking about artistic and technical achievements in cinema not about who picked the most historically relevant theme.

  277. MovieFan
    January 19, 2014

    DiCaprio fans get really annoying this time of year. How do you know the academy even considers him ‘overdue’. This whole overdue thing is something that his fans have drawn up.

    I bet if McConaugh wins this year, most fans will say Leo was robbed! without having probably seen Dallas Buyers Club.

    Say what you want about the film, but Matthew is tremendous in the film and would be a deserving winner.

  278. Claudiu Dobre
    January 19, 2014

    I got 9/14 overall, and 4/5 in the movie categories (I had Lawrence).

    And, Buford – I surprisingly agree with pretty much everything you’ve been saying…

    Me4 – I sort of agree that Hawkins does close to nothing impressive in Blue Jasmine. And Blanchett is the best of the nominees, but for me both Adele and Emma Thompson were better this year.

    But, since I’ve always been a fan of Cate’s, I’ll definitely be happy when she wins. And, really, I’d be happy for Amy Adams as well (although she doesn’t really deserve it as much), so it’s win-win for me here.

    Mel – I didn’t know that about SAG-AFTRA. Good point! I’ve learned something today…

    “This will be a race until Oscar night.”

    Not if American Hustle also wins the PGA and DGA…

    “12YAS lost SAG Ensemble and this is an important barometer for the PGA. First it failed to get cinematography and sound nods and now it lost SAG ensemble to a mediocre film!!”

    I agree. But I think American Hustle is the one winning the PGA, actually, not Gravity. Hope I’m wrong!

    “Actually 12 Years A Slave isn’t a Brokeback Mountain, because ironically and sadly it’s still okay to be seen as homophobic, but no, it’s not okay to be seen as racist and I can see many, extremely many voters not seeing the film, but voting for it.”

    Very interesting observation! Hope you’re right, although they probably won’t vote for it anyway, because it’s divisive.

    “More than any other category, Best Picture is the one where the true honor is the nomination; the win is a crapshoot.”

    Best comment in a very long time! I’ve been thinking that myself for a while now…

    “I don’t understand the 12YAS detractors. Why can Hollywood honor films about the Holocaust (Schindler’s List, Life Is Beautiful, The Pianist, The Reader, et al.) over and over again but the first feature film to truly, masterfully show the horrors of American slavery gets dismissed as self-indulgent torture porn. Let’s remember that this film was adapted from a slave narrative. These people actually existed and endured all of this so-called self-indulgence.”

    I mean, it’s simple – no matter how brilliant a movie is, there will ALWAYS be a few who just don’t like it. And, since art isn’t science, they’ll always be able to make a case for not liking it, sometimes even citing as flaws things universally liked by all of those who love it. It’s normal and it’s not a bad thing, necessarily. I mean, can anyone ever be SURE, either way?!

    “What Sallyin Chicago said ^”

    Seconded. The fact that we see the whole thing from Solomon’s point of view, and never anything else (like what his family is doing at home, looking for him, or whatever) is so important and makes the movie so tense and engaging. It really feels like we too are trapped with him. The result is brilliant – and that’s just one of many brilliant things about the movie…

    “12YAS is also nuanced and the characters are 3 dimensional.”

    Thank you! Underwritten my ass…

    “What the hell is wrong with Cuba Gooding Jr. He just ran on stage screaming “white men, happy MLK day.”

    I think it was: “Wait, man… Happy MLK day!” Or something like that… Can’t remember exactly, but I’m pretty sure it wasn’t “white men”.

  279. MWeyer
    January 19, 2014

    Funny, I was remembering last year when people were talking of Riva winning Best Actress over Lawrence, I made the point that it might be better to have Lawrence win for a performance that she did deserve it for rather than get a “make-up” Oscar over a more worthy candidate in the future.

    Here we are, a year later and just that scenario as if Riva or Chastain had won, you know the Academy would be giving Best Supporting to Lawrence as a make-up but thankfully, Lupita will probably get the award she deserves so funny how things work out.

    Oh and to clear up earlier posts, I do think Blanchett is going to win Actress too, as much as I like Adams. Personally, I would put Adams last in terms of the acting after Streep, Dench and Bullock. However, again, I remember last year when people suddenly talked of Riva having the edge despite her left off SAG and other awards just because of good feelings and “voters will want the old lady to win.” Sentimentality plays into votes too and again, some voters might be more inclined to give it to the five-time nominee over the one who already has an Oscar, especially since said nominee is in the flashy Best Picture contender. We’ll see with BAFTAs (personally still think it’ll be Thompson there just to show up the Academy and because, she’s Emma Freaking Thompson) but wouldn’t be as shocked as many here if Adams upsets Blanchett on Oscar night. Yet another reason why this season is a bit more interesting than previous years.

  280. Nic V
    January 19, 2014

    Sammy I believe that Leto will probably win based on everything that has shaken out this season and I have picked him in all the contests. The only thing in my mind is that because of the release date of WOWS everyone associated with that film got cut out of the season. Wolf is gaining popularity and making money at just the right time so I think that there’s the possibility that Leo and Jonah still have a dog in this fight. But I only believe that because they didn’t figure into the rest of the season due to the release date.

  281. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    @Buford — agree.
    Sammy I believe that Leto will probably win based on everything that has shaken out this season and I have picked him in all the contests.
    I gotta feeling that Michael Fassbender will take best supporting actor.

  282. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    @Steve50–I just left a theater, the room was kind of small. 12 Yrs is only on one screen at 11 am and it was packed — with all white people, exc. for one black couple.

  283. Akumax
    January 19, 2014

    “it is impossible for an actor to cobble together a performance without other actors to work with, without words, without someone to help you modulate your performance…”

    Cate Blanchett in her SAG speech expressed just how challenging and great is Sandra Bullock’s performance in Gravity.

  284. MWeyer
    January 19, 2014

    I do find it ironic how we’re putting so much stock on the SAGs as Oscar predictors considering how I’ve seen so many forums and critics ripping into their TV picks (seriously, Smith over Gunn? And even Mirren didn’t think she should have won over Moss).

  285. chasgoose
    January 19, 2014

    Not much to learn here for Oscar except maybe that Lupita is slowly becoming the frontrunner again for Supporting Actress. Leto and Blanchett are all but locked up. MM is still probably the Best Actor frontrunner and at this point probably only Leo can beat him (which I still think is going to happen). American Hustle’s victory says less about its chances than a 12 Years a Slave victory would have since AH was always considered the frontrunner for Best Ensemble.

    Also, just have to say for those talking about how important and brave 12 Years a Slave is, is it really? I mean its not the only film to graphically depict the physical horrors of slavery (indeed, its not even the only filmed work to do so this year, see American Horror Story: Coven). Also, McQueen’s cold directing style sort of limits the film’s interaction with the institution of slavery to the surface (with a few brief moments of insight like Alfre Woodard’s scene and the scene where Patsy begs Solomon to kill her). Slavery was an institution where people were allowed to OWN other people, you don’t need artfully composed scenes of abuse to understand how profoundly horrific enough. Give me Beloved, the film or the book, any day for a work of art that engages with the institution of slavery in a way that burrows deeper than surface level. Beloved doesn’t need to show us the horrors of slavery because its characters are so deeply damaged and traumatized and continue to be haunted by slavery in a way that’s much more unsettling than what McQueen shows us.

    I’m not one of those people who think that the graphicness of 12 Years a Slave was gratuitous or unnecessary, but that on its own is not enough to provide any provide statement on the institution of slavery.

  286. julian the emperor
    January 19, 2014

    Tony: I would have put Before Midnight and Blue is the Warmest Color before all of the nine nominees, so that’s an easy call. Also, I would have put Frances Ha and Blue Jasmine before at least Philomena, WoWS, American Hustle, Dallas Buyers Club and probably Captain Phillips, so safe to say my picks for BP would have been a whole lot different.

    But: the slate of nominees as it is is strong this year, so you won’t hear me complain too much. I think it’s a strong list. It’s been a good-to-great year for American filmmaking.

  287. SallyinChicago
    January 19, 2014

    I do find it ironic how we’re putting so much stock on the SAGs as Oscar predictors considering how I’ve seen so many forums and critics ripping into their TV picks
    For me, the Oscars come too late. All the awards have been won, and really it’s predictable who’s going to win and who won’t. There may be A SURPRISE, but not much.

  288. WW
    January 19, 2014

    ”12 Years a Slave” is NO ”Brokeback Mountain.” Like ”12 Years,” it won the Golden Globe and Broadcast Critics prize for Best Picture, but it also won the New York Film Critics AND the Los Angeles Film Critics. (And it would win the PGA, the DGA, the WGA and BAFTA.)

    But also, it was OK for Academy voters to be openly homophobic. Both Ernest Borgnine and Tony Curtis said they would neither watch the movie, let alone vote for it, and that they knew fellow Academy members who felt the same way. Borgnine added, ”If John Wayne were still alive, he’d be rolling over in his grave.”

    I doubt you’ll find anyone stupid or racist enough now to say they wouldn’t watch ”12 Years” because it’s about slavery and blacks.

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