So far:
Grand Jury Prize: Fruitvale
U.S. Doc Grand Jury Prize: Blood Brother
U.S. Dramatic Directing Award: Afternoon Delight
U.S. Doc Directing Award: Cutie and the Boxer
U.S. Dramatic Waldo Salt Screenwriting Award: In a World
Sundance: Screenwriting Award, World Cinema Dramatic: Barmak Akram from Afghanistan for ‘Wajma.’
U.S. Dramatic Cinematography Award: Bradford Young for Ain’t Them Bodies Saints & Mother of George
US Dramatic Special Jury Acting to Miles Teller & Shailene Woodley for The Spectacular Now
Audience Winner: Fruitvale
US Doc Audience Award: Blood Brother
Audience Award for Best World Narrative: Metro Manila
World Doc Audience Award: The Square
Best of Next: This is Martin Bonner
World Doc grand jury prize: A River Changes Course
World Doc directing prize: The Machine That Makes Everything Disappear
World Cinema Special Jury Prize (Documentary): Pussy Riot: A Punk Prayer
Alfred P. Sloan Feature Film Prize: Computer Chess
World Cinema Dramatic Screenwriting Award: WAJMA (AN AFGHAN LOVE STORY) (Barmak Akram)
World Cinema Dramatic Cinematography Award: LASTING (d.p. Michal Englert)
Fruitvale will be the male response to PRECIOUS, but maybe it won’t explode as much. It will be talked about a lot. The Spectacular Now is pretty much Like Crazy 2.0, so I doubt anyone from that movie will get much love. It boosts the indie cred of its leads, makes the director even more prominent, but nothing else. I highly doubt In a World will go anywhere – the novelty of the premise wears off fast.
I don’t know what to make of The Way, Way Back (terrible title, btw) and Kill Your Darlings.
Ain’t Them Bodies Saints will go far with the critics.
Stoker and Lovelace have no chances with the Academy Awards.
Before Midnight is practically locked for Best Adapted Screenplay.
So does no one care to recognize the hypocrisy of having a Sundance Lab film win 3 years in a row?
P.S. Last year’s Sundance breakout hits received Oscar nominations in 5 of the 8 main categories, almost 6 (SAG/GG/CC nominee John Hawkes was a damn strong contender in Best Actor all year), so it’s worth taking a long look at this year’s success stories.
Sorry, people, this is my ‘Waiting for PGA’ timekilling wordvomit a.k.a. a highly arguable Oscar-centric Sundance summary :
BEST PICTURE / DIRECTOR / SCREENPLAY
Clearly the Oscar-pro distributors have high hopes for Fruitvale (The Weinstein Company); The Way, Way Back (Fox Searchlight); Before Midnight (Sony Pictures Classics) and though clearly a trickier sell, Ain’t Them Bodies Saints (IFC) received good/great early word and can also rely on some star power in the long run, as well, the two leads are Oscar nominees after all. The Spectacular Now (A24) has excellent buzz but the tiny distributor really has to step it up to register in the awards season, especially because the Academy tends to overlook teen films, even the great ones (The Perks of Being a Wallflower) . At the moment In a World… has everything to become a critical darling and if that happens, it might be the indie surprise hit of the year and Lake Bell could easily sneak into the Original Screenplay category, we’ll see ! Last but not least, Stoker . Not that the Academy often goes for genre films, especially ones released in March, but early word suggests this will be a brilliantly disturbing masterpiece and if enough critics get behind it at the end of the year, who knows, it might be able to pull through…or it will be just another Hanna as far as awards go.
MOST LIKELY TO GET NOMINATED FOR OSCAR : Fruitvale in Picture, Director, Original Screenplay and Before Midnight in Adapted Screenplay.
BEST ACTOR
Casey Affleck (Ain’t Them Bodies Saints) could be back, he is a fantastic talent who apparently delivered another strong performance, also Ethan Hawke (Before Midnight) received excellent reviews, so IF the Academy falls in love with the last chapter of the trilogy, they will probably fall in love with his performance, as well, and of course there are the potential newbies Miles Teller (The Spectacular Now) and Liam James (The Way, Way Back) who have to face the Academy’s youth discrimination in Best Actor. I think these four are the ‘maybes’. The one who has the best shot at an Oscar nomination in my opinion, is Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale). With the winning early word and the Weinstein-factor, he could emerge as THE revelation of 2013. Then there is Kill your darlings with all those promising actors ( Ben Foster, Daniel Radcliffe, Dane DeHaan, Jack Huston, Michael C. Hall ) playing those baity roles, I just don’t know who is lead, who is supporting, who is the standout, how divisive the film is and how big of a factor internal competition will be in the end.
MOST LIKELY TO GET NOMINATED FOR OSCAR : Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale)
BEST ACTRESS
There are a few who got some good/great ink – Rooney Mara (Ain’t Them Bodies Saints), Lake Bell (In a World…), Mia Wasikowska (Stoker) – question is whether the Academy will embrace any of them. For now it seems Mara’s film might end up being too obscure, and we all know they rarely go for comedic (Bell) or horror (Wasikowska) performances. Meanwhile Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace) played against type to critical acclaim, but even though critics praised her, they weren’t that sure about the film. Radius-TWC acquired it and will release it this fall, so I guess if the final critical consensus is decent, Harvey Weinstein might consider a Seyfried-campaign in the end. For what it’s worth, the Academy loves flashy deglam performances and actresses who play 1. against type 2. an iconic real-life person 3. an inspirational victim. I’m getting a very vague Accused/Monster -vibe here, but I could be VERY off, I know. Also, Sundance winner Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now) is one who probably has some leftover goodwill after her recent Oscar-snub, but I have a feeling that even if the distributor decides to campaign, they won’t place her in lead. Personally, I would love to see the great and criminally underrated Julie Delpy (Before Midnight) sneak in but that will probably only happen if the Academy REALLY goes for her film. Celine has never been the kind of flashy female part voters usually go for.
MOST LIKELY TO GET NOMINATED FOR OSCAR : Amanda Seyfried (Lovelace)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Sam Rockwell received raves so I would like to think that this will be his The Kids Are All Right (a long overdue first Oscar nomination in Supporting Actor for a Sundance comedy crowdpleaser) and if he campaigns for it, Daniel Radcliffe could be a big enough name to convince voters his Allen Ginsberg is Oscar-worthy, but obviously he will need a few FYCadworthy quotes first.
MOST LIKELY TO GET NOMINATED FOR OSCAR : Sam Rockwell (The Way, Way Back)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Even though Sharon Stone (Lovelace) apparently delivered her baitiest role in years, Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale) could be back in the race especially if her film becomes a strong contender in the main categories and Shailene Woodley (The Spectacular Now) could end up here, too, despite being the female lead of her film, I have a feeling Nicole Kidman (Stoker) has the best buzz at the moment. Once again she plays a daring, risky role in a daring, risky film and this time it seems it will actually pay off : she received early raves AND so did the film. She was obviously very close to her first Supporting Actress nomination this year, and I think she will get probably even closer next year. Question is whether that will be enough. The early release date is definitely a damaging factor hard to overcome…but then again the film that DID this year (Beasts of the Southern Wild) was distributed by Fox Searchlight just like Stoker , so there is hope they might be able to save it from oblivion. Then again, it could be just another critically acclaimed female genre performance from an Oscar winner ( Cate Blanchett in Hanna ) that won’t even register in the race, not to mention Kidman could be a contender in lead, too ( Grace of Monaco ), so she might face split votes, as well.
MOST LIKELY TO GET NOMINATED FOR OSCAR : Nicole Kidman (Stoker)
Too bad Stoker didn’t win anything.
Well, Fruitvale does sound like this year’s Beasts of the Southern Wild now.
http://www.democracynow.org/2013/1/25/fruitvale_ryan_cooglers_debut_film_on
Interview with the director and clips.
JP, do we have to? I mean seriously…fucking Weinstein…
^
Was rooting for The Lifeguard myself. At least it made the Sundance USA cross-country tour they have after the event is over.
Let’s give a break from PGA for a second and write the name Fruitvale in the early 2014 predictions.
Phantom. It was not about you. I already saw that in different blogs/ threads. Yes at least he has the taste ( or business instinct) 😉
I wasn’t complaining, I made an observation. Clearly he knows how to pick them.
I think we may hear about Fruitvale a lot during next year’s awards season.
And i dont understand why people already compain about Weinstein! Almost like a condiioned response. Last couple of days wherever i checked i saw Fruitvale mentioned. And Weinstins being a smart ” buinessman” got the distribution rights. So at least a lot of people will see it this year
Could Lake Bell emerge as a viable contender in Original Screenplay next year ? First the insane Variety rave and now this award…so, yes, I think that might just happen.
Too bad a tiny distributor acquired ‘The Spectacular Now’, well, maybe they can still provide a viable awards campaign in the end, based on early reviews and this special award, it definitely has potential. I didn’t think Shailene Woodley could be back in the Oscar-game so soon after the Descendants-snub.
…aaand the next Weinstein-season starts early this year. Anyway, Congratulations to Fruitvale !