We’ll leave the nominees listed in this post as a reminder of who the BFCA passed over in favor of the winners (noted in * bold).
BEST PICTURE
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Dallas Buyers Club
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
* 12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ACTOR
Christian Bale – American Hustle
Bruce Dern – Nebraska
Chiwetel Ejiofor – 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks – Captain Phillips
* Matthew McConaughey – Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford – All Is Lost
BEST ACTRESS
* Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Judi Dench – Philomena
Brie Larson – Short Term 12
Meryl Streep – August: Osage County
Emma Thompson – Saving Mr. Banks
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad Abdi – Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl – Rush
Bradley Cooper – American Hustle
Michael Fassbender – 12 Years a Slave
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
* Jared Leto – Dallas Buyers Club
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson – Her
Jennifer Lawrence – American Hustle
* Lupita Nyong’o – 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts – August: Osage County
June Squibb – Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey – Lee Daniels’ The Butler
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Asa Butterfield – Ender’s Game
* Adele Exarchopoulos – Blue Is the Warmest Color
Liam James – The Way Way Back
Sophie Nelisse – The Book Thief
Tye Sheridan – Mud
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
* American Hustle
August: Osage County
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Nebraska
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST DIRECTOR
* Alfonso Cuaron – Gravity
Paul Greengrass – Captain Phillips
Spike Jonze – Her
Steve McQueen – 12 Years a Slave
David O. Russell – American Hustle
Martin Scorsese – The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Eric Singer and David O. Russell – American Hustle
Woody Allen – Blue Jasmine
* Spike Jonze – Her
Joel Coen & Ethan Coen – Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson – Nebraska
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Tracy Letts – August: Osage County
Richard Linklater & Julie Delpy & Ethan Hawke – Before Midnight
Billy Ray – Captain Phillips
Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope – Philomena
* John Ridley – 12 Years a Slave
Terence Winter – The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
* Emmanuel Lubezki – Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel – Inside Llewyn Davis
Phedon Papamichael – Nebraska
Roger Deakins – Prisoners
Sean Bobbitt – 12 Years a Slave
BEST ART DIRECTION
Andy Nicholson (Production Designer), Rosie Goodwin (Set Decorator) – Gravity
* Catherine Martin (Production Designer), Beverley Dunn (Set Decorator) – The Great Gatsby
K.K. Barrett (Production Designer), Gene Serdena (Set Decorator) – Her
Dan Hennah (Production Designer), Ra Vincent (Set Decorator) – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Adam Stockhausen (Production Designer), Alice Baker (Set Decorator) – 12 Years a Slave
BEST EDITING
Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers – American Hustle
Christopher Rouse – Captain Phillips
* Alfonso Cuarón, Mark Sanger – Gravity
Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill – Rush
Joe Walker – 12 Years a Slave
Thelma Schoonmaker – The Wolf of Wall Street
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Michael Wilkinson – American Hustle
* Catherine Martin – The Great Gatsby
Bob Buck, Lesley Burkes-Harding, Ann Maskrey, Richard Taylor – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Daniel Orlandi – Saving Mr. Banks
Patricia Norris – 12 Years a Slave
BEST MAKEUP
* American Hustle
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Rush
12 Years a Slave
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
* Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek into Darkness
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
The Croods
Despicable Me 2
* Frozen
Monsters University
The Wind Rises
BEST ACTION MOVIE
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Iron Man 3
* Lone Survivor
Rush
Star Trek into Darkness
BEST ACTOR IN AN ACTION MOVIE
Henry Cavill – Man of Steel
Robert Downey Jr. – Iron Man 3
Brad Pitt – World War Z
* Mark Wahlberg – Lone Survivor
BEST ACTRESS IN AN ACTION MOVIE
* Sandra Bullock – Gravity
Jennifer Lawrence – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Evangeline Lilly – The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Gwyneth Paltrow – Iron Man 3
BEST COMEDY
* American Hustle
Enough Said
The Heat
This Is the End
The Way Way Back
The World’s End
BEST ACTOR IN A COMEDY
Christian Bale – American Hustle
* Leonardo DiCaprio – The Wolf of Wall Street
James Gandolfini – Enough Said
Simon Pegg – The World’s End
Sam Rockwell – The Way Way Back
BEST ACTRESS IN A COMEDY
* Amy Adams – American Hustle
Sandra Bullock – The Heat
Greta Gerwig – Frances Ha
Julia Louis-Dreyfus – Enough Said
Melissa McCarthy – The Heat
BEST SCI-FI/HORROR MOVIE
The Conjuring
* Gravity
Star Trek into Darkness
World War Z
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
* Blue Is the Warmest Color
The Great Beauty
The Hunt
The Past
Wadjda
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Act of Killing
Blackfish
Stories We Tell
Tim’s Vermeer
* 20 Feet from Stardom
BEST SONG
Atlas – Coldplay – The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Happy – Pharrell Williams – Despicable Me 2
* Let It Go – Robert Lopez and Kristen Anderson-Lopez – Frozen
Ordinary Love – U2 – Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom
Please Mr. Kennedy – Justin Timberlake/Oscar Isaac/Adam Driver – Inside Llewyn Davis
Young and Beautiful – Lana Del Rey – The Great Gatsby
BEST SCORE
* Steven Price – Gravity
Arcade Fire – Her
Thomas Newman – Saving Mr. Banks
Hans Zimmer – 12 Years a Slave
Good point, Karen.
Sorry I hit send before checking spelling &didn’t finish post.
As far as the guilds go, it probably has been a rare scenario that there are this many good films in competition. I would not be surprised if there is an unexpected win here. It would definitely make the race all that more exciting. If its AH for everything, then its pretty much game over.
There is another factor involving 12YAS that I was thinking & wondering about. There have been references that Academy voters were hesitant in viewing the film, hence the lower than expected number of nominations. It could happen that in the 6 week period, some of these folks decide to actually break down & see the film. Depending on their responses, it could affect the race.
OK, Bryce, I’ll do that one too (but changing the lower category definitions a bit). Ordered alphabetically within each category:
Loved – most of them, because this includes my favorite decade for BP winners:
A BEAUTIFUL MIND
AMERICAN BEAUTY
BRAVEHEART
THE ENGLISH PATIENT
FORREST GUMP
GLADIATOR
THE RETURN OF THE KING
SCHINDLER’S LIST
SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
TITANIC
UNFORGIVEN
Liked a lot:
CHICAGO
DANCES WITH WOLVES
THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS
SLUMDOG MILLIONARE
Liked OK:
CRASH
THE HURT LOCKER
THE KING’S SPEECH
Didn’t like too much:
THE ARTIST
THE DEPARTED
MILLION DOLLAR BABY
NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
Didn’t care for at all:
ARGO
Steve, that is way too hard… I have a clear and uniform rating system for all movies I watch and I still think I’d have a super-hard time doing that. 🙂
Chris:
“I think there is one scenario that no one is really talking about that if happened this weekend would probably seal the race for one film. Most of us are in agreement that Cuaron is going to win DGA. If Gravity were to win PGA as well I think the Oscar race would be all but over.”
Mostly correct, but I would note that the PGA+DGA combination has lost Best Picture before – 3 times out of 18, actually, which is 16.6% of the time: Brokeback Mountain, Saving Private Ryan, Apollo 13 – and while BBM and A13 had been snubbed by the Academy for Editing and Director, respectively, Saving Private Ryan had no such problems and still lost to the SAG winner. So, overall, not a particularly safe percentage to be betting against – unless we’ve just decided 100% that whatever wins the PGA in any given year (since the voting procedure is the same as for the Oscars) will ALWAYS win Best Picture, which, however, I find to be a little premature, given the still small sample size, even though I do expect it to be fully confirmed in the future.
And especially not if Gravity is the PGA+DGA winner, because that one does seem like an absolutely ideal candidate to become the 4th exception – no Screenplay nomination, non-Academy friendly genre, no ensemble and respective SAG nomination, no major Best Picture wins pre-guilds… That seems like tons of reasons for doubt to me. I’d say the race is anything but over in your scenario, no matter whether AH or 12YAS wins the SAG Ensemble. And if AH wins SAG Ensemble, I honestly would still see it as the favorite, even against a PGA&DGA-winning Gravity, for all the reasons stated above. Honestly, maybe even 12 Years…
In addition – I don’t think it’s all that clear that Cuaron is winning the DGA. People have already pointed out the “out of nowhere” Hooper win in 2011 and I’m sure there are other examples (too lazy to research it right now). Cuaron is the favorite based on what we know now, yes, but that’s about it. He’s not a lock by any means.
Actually, DGA+SAG is the strongest two-guild combination, mathematically speaking – there is only one exception out of 8 instances, for 12.5%: Apollo 13. Every other movie to win the SAG Ensemble and DGA also won the Oscar for Best Picture that year. PGA+SAG is a bit less accurate, with 28.5% exceptions, 2/9 – Apollo 13 and Little Miss Sunshine; it must be noted, however, that both of these movies failed to obtain a Best Director Oscar nomination. Factor that in and it’s clear that SAG+DGA (with no Oscar snubs) would be the strongest combination; but PGA+SAG is much more likely to happen this year and, if either AH or 12YAS win both of those, they (and especially AH, because it’s also in the top 2 for Oscar nominations), not having been snubbed for anything, will be in the same position as The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, No Country for Old Men, The Return of the King, Chicago and American Beauty (those six, and ONLY those six), which were all complete and utter locks for Best Picture (even if, perhaps, some people decided to foolishly ignore the stats instead) and all, of course, won. In that case, a Cuaron win at the DGA would be nothing more than a clear sign of a split. And yes, if 12 Years loses both the PGA and SAG (to American Hustle), it’s done – but that’s not really big news to anyone…
Of course, by the time the DGA announces, we’ll already know what movie has won the other two, so the only truly relevant stat would be the 2-vs-1 guild stat, with all involved being Best Picture nominees. That one goes like this: PGA+DGA vs. SAG: 3-2; PGA+SAG vs. DGA: 0-1; DGA+SAG vs PGA: 0-0 (never happened). So, as you can see, SURPRISINGLY UNCLEAR… The obvious conclusion to be drawn here is that 2/3 guild wins, while a good sign, are most certainly NOWHERE NEAR enough to win Best Picture, unless other factors (read: Oscar snubs) are involved. And since AH and 12YAS have no such problems and Gravity isn’t getting more than 2/3 and does – see above -, the only thing that is clear right now is that Gravity can NEVER be dubbed the clear favorite (or any kind of favorite, really) at any point during this race, as long as one of its two main rivals wins the SAG Ensemble award, which seems like a given.
American Hustle, as likeable as it may be, is only a mere entertainment. Nothing more, really. Well acted. Not much more. It will generally be forgotten down the road, just as other choices by AMPAS have.
12 Years a Slave should win if only to make up for the shameful omission of Fruitvale Station, an incredible story for our times. Both films were and are eloquent statements of the dreadful tragedy of slavery and the incredible damage that it left in it’s wake. One can’t help but meditate on the wounds inflicted on our country that have yet to heal and seem doomed to stay with us forever. Both are art and have been torn from the fabric of our republic.
Good! I just found my list on there. Maybe tomorrow I’ll open a forum thread and post it there (so we don’t hijack the show on this thread)
Steve, challenge accepted!
Bryce and Chris Price – if you guys want a real challenge, try the BP ranking set-up on Erik Lundegaard’s site. I did it last year and my results must be archived in there somewhere.
Starts out easy, then gets tough.
http://eriklundegaard.com/ranking-best-picture-winners.php
Chris, fun. I don’t remember how each did on my lists (a few I didn’t include at all) so I’m just doing a straight-up ranking of the last 23 Best Pic winners.
Loved
1. NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN
2. UNFORGIVEN
3. THE HURT LOCKER
4. SCHINDLER’S LIST
5. THE SILENCE OF THE LAMBS
6. GLADIATOR
7. TITANIC
8. THE DEPARTED
9. AMERICAN BEAUTY
10. THE RETURN OF THE KING
11. MILLION DOLLAR BABY
Liked a lot
12. SLUMDOG MILLIONARE
Liked Ok
13. BRAVEHEART
14. THE KING’S SPEECH
15. FORREST GUMP
16. ARGO
17. DANCES WITH WOLVES
Didn’t like, hated, didn’t care for, etc
18. SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE
19. A BEAUTIFUL MIND
20. THE ARTIST
21. THE ENGLISH PATIENT
22. CRASH
23. CHICAGO
Considering only fictional films. This year’s _actual_ #1 is The Act of Killing, which is as good as anything.
I actually liked last year more than this year (my top 3–Lincoln, Amour, Zero Dark Thirty–are a stronger batch than this year’s top 3–All Is Lost, 12 Years a Slave, Wolf of Wall Street).
And I like American Hustle about as much as Argo. Both very positive good solid movies in my mind. Argo is a more “perfect” movie (I have agreed with Sasha on that word as describing Argo). But American Hustle actually has people that are fascinating, performances that are astonishing. I am likely to re-watch AH far more than I re-watch Argo. Both are ending up being my #7 or so of that year. Solid enough to make in the top ten, memorable, and lovable. AH fell short of masterpiece when it got a little too long and messy; Argo was never going to be a masterpiece, just a really good movie.
I liked at least 5 nominees this year better than the last 3 Best Picture winners.
See you and raise you, Chris – I think the entire slate this year is better than the last three winners.
Outstanding year.
It almost seemed like they had taste for a minute there!
Also: take note how the 3 strongest on that list were all CONSECUTIVE winners. 1991-93 surely was a golden moment in Oscar history.
If 12 Years A Slave, Her or The Wolf Of Wall Street won somehow, they would instantly be in the top 7 of that list above. If Hustle or Gravity wins they’d still be in the top 10. To me whoever wins its gonna be a really strong Best Picture winner. One of the top 10 strongest of the last 25 years.
2 things:
1: Everyone keeps bringing up McConaughey and Leto not getting BAFTA Nominations. Did Dallas Buyers Club actually play in England? If not it would be rather difficult for them to score noms.
2: I think there is one scenario that no one is really talking about that if happened this weekend would probably seal the race for one film. Most of us are in agreement that Cuaron is going to win DGA. If Gravity were to win PGA as well I think the Oscar race would be all but over.
12 Years is certainly still very much one of the two favorites. If it loses both PGA and SAG though I think it very possibly could become “this year’s Lincoln”.
Crash, Chicago and The King’s Speech all failed to crack my top 20, so its safe to say I’d consider those to be the 3 weakest Best Picture winners since 1990, followed closely by A Beautiful Mind (#18 on my list). The English Patient was my #12 film, so not exactly “weak”, but if you wanted a 5th weakest to make that 5 I’d go with that one. The Silence Of The Lambs is the only film since 1990 to get my top spot, with the next closest being Schindler’s List, which was #2 for me that year.
Best Picture Winners Since 1990 in order from Strongest to Weakest (based solely on their rankings on my annual lists):
1. The Silence Of The Lambs
2. Schindler’s List
3. Unforgiven
4. No Country For Old Men
5. The Departed
6. Million Dollar Baby
7. Lord Of The Rings: The Return Of The King
8. Slumdog Millionaire
9. Braveheart
10. The Hurt Locker
11. Titanic
12. The Artist
13. Gladiator
14. American Beauty
15. Dances With Wolves
16. Forrest Gump
17. Argo
18. Shakespeare In Love
19. The English Patient
20. A Beautiful Mind
21. The King’s Speech
22. Chicago
23. Crash
Only 8 of the last 23 Best Picture winners (since 1990) were in my top 5 of the year:
No Country For Old Men
The Departed
Slumdog Millionaire
Million Dollar Baby
LOTR: The Return Of The King
Schindler’s List
Unforgiven
The Silence Of The Lambs
But 17 of them made my top 10, so that’s worth noting. The other movies that made my 10 were:
Argo
The Artist
The Hurt Locker
Gladiator
American Beauty
Titanic
Braveheart
Forrest Gump
Dances With Wolves
Bryce,
I liked at least 5 nominees this year better than the last 3 Best Picture winners.
12 Years A Slave
American Hustle
Gravity
Her
The Wolf Of Wall Street
So the Academy has 5 chances to improve their winners’ circle this year!
““The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship”
When it wins PGA, and possibly SAG tomorrow night, maybe you will change your mind.”
“When” that happens we will ALL immediately change our minds. But right now it’s not a question of “when”, but of “if”. What will YOU do “when” AH wins those instead? Will you not change YOUR mind? It’s easy to make unsubstantiated “threats” this way…
“I start to think it could be like that year Cabaret won 8 Oscars but not Best Picture”
That’s a very inspired comparison! Hadn’t thought of that.
“I just don’t see AH winning picture but not director.”
And I, honestly, can’t picture Russell winning either the DGA or the Oscar, when they have both Cuaron and McQueen who are so much easier to award in that category, for various reasons. Doesn’t mean it’s not winning Best Picture, though – a split is overdue.
“The main difference is that this year it is a three horse race where GRAVITY could sneak a victory”
That’s only partially true, if at all; last year there was Life of Pi, which, aside from losing Director to Affleck almost everywhere (but Ang Lee still being the favorite for the Oscar, which I correctly predicted and won bets on, because Affleck wasn’t nominated), was about the same as Gravity is now (perhaps not as hailed, though) – it was likely winning Director, it wasn’t SAG nominated (no great ensemble) and was winning a lot of technical awards. So yeah, while definitely not identical, the situations are actually very similar. If last year was any kind of a race (which it probably wasn’t), then it definitely wasn’t just Argo vs. Lincoln. And if Life of Pi in fact had 0 chances last year, like you’re saying, then so does Gravity this year, because its main competitors are statistically even stronger than Argo (who had no Director nomination). It’s not that easy to tell which is the case, though…
“And with the exception of last year due to the date change chaos, these seasoned prognosticators have been wrong in their split predictions, time and time again. Avatar/Cameron and Hurt Locker/Bigelow. King’s Speech/Hooper and Social Network/Fincher. Million Dollar Baby/Eastwood vs. Aviator/Marty. Etc.”
What you’re implying, roughly, is that there’s a very good chance that whatever wins the DGA will also win the PGA and, very likely, also the SAG Ensemble. Another sweep – could this year really get that boring as well?
“I generally like Crash.”
Me too. 🙂
Lupita! Vogue DID just choose her as their “It” girl! Yes, they did! Flawless speech. She cried. I cried. Oprah cried. Oprah stood up and applauded! A standing O from Lady O! Not easy to get.
Lupita’s performance was grade A++++ and PLUS she was playing a woman, an unsung, real, tragic woman who actually lived. Some one wrote to me this morning on my blog, “What happens to Patsie? Once Solomon goes…”? Truth is we don’t know. We’ll never know. She could either keel over in the fields, like the poor slave we saw did at the end of the film, or she being so suicidal as shown, maybe she did the deed herself that she asked Solomon to do.
But she’s Master Epps favorite…so he’ll keep her around. And then the Civil War comes. She could runaway. She was feisty enough.
We’ll never know. BUt she lives on through Lupita’s great interpretation of her frightening life…
And Fox Searchlight stepped up to the plate and created two new TV ads for “Slave”, One featured Chiwetel and Lupita with their names spelled out and correctly pronounced by the announcer in Voice Over, and a second using Martin Luther King’s great speeches as the audio over the great visuals of the movie. It was VERY powerful.
Lupita could really turn it all around in her category. She could go on to win everything. She’s certainly showing the viewers everywhere she goes that she has the right stuff.
JLaw is SOOO last year.
I too like AMERICAN HUSTLE more than any Best Picture winner since THE HURT LOCKER.
Julian, Tero,
I agree 12 YEARS is a “safe” choice. Whatever that means. Yes beyond aesthetics (which is everything to me because it’s cinema, well written or not it’s in the execution where whatever significance is achieved or not). In fact any other choice they make (e.g. HUSTLE, GRAVITY) but 12 YEARS would surely be accompanied with backlash. Now, it is safe, but it apparently is the right choice (or one of the right choices). I myself didn’t embrace it, but it has universal critical acclaim. So who’d to say they are only rewarding it because it’s “important”? It’s already been acknowledge by most contemporaries as a great movie. Whether it wins or not. Whether it “ought” to win or not. And I am a real American.
Patricia,
That’s why the joke worked so well. : )
“Those who take care of her wardrobe gets some Kudos from me as well.”
I meant to say, get, not gets.
—
And by the way, this is probably a high time for them — the Academy members/voters — to give Dave O. Russell what he’s been, I suppose, longing for. [Don’t throw bricks, thanks]
Gravity is an action movie? I had no idea.
Lupita Nyong’o gives a heartfelt acceptance speech at the Critics Choice. She looks genuinely excited to receive the honor as well. Good for her.
(Those who take care of her wardrobe gets Kudos from me as well. She looks gorgeous both in this event and at Golden Globes.)
Cate Blanchett, as expected, has finally garnered another trophy. Such a beautiful speech with no bull yet nonetheless charming. (I’ll be very glad if either Cate or Amy garners the Oscar statuette this year. But it looks like Cate is about to be going all the way upon stage.)
And I also fancy the astronaut’s acceptance speech. She’s funny without coming off as being pretentious.
“I’m an action hero.” LOL. Good one, Sandra.
I generally like Crash. But American Hustle is way better. It’s been pretty easy to hate on David O. Russell films lately after he was seen as largely unrewarded for his earlier work. That’s how you know, between this year and last, his films are serious threats for best picture. Russell is another Tom Hooper (not in style) but every time a movie comes out the knives will be at the ready. This comes from someone who places American Hustle maybe 5th on the BP list. Go 12 Years!
I’m not sure many Americans would agree with you, Tero, about 12 YAS being the safe choice for bp. I see your point, and in a formal sense I agree with you. But there is more to a discussion about what constitutes a safe choice than pure aesthetics.
Gravity would be a bold choice indeed in many ways, 12 YAS mostly in a political/cultural/sociological context.
AH? I think it’s better than Crash, mostly because it dares to be fun (which is fine with me, I just don’t think it makes it an obvious Oscar winner).
But, ultimately, I feel pretty confident that 12YAS is going to win the big one, though I find myself rooting just a bit for Gravity (12YAS still sight unseen, mind you, it premieres over here on the 20th of february…)
If they do Keifer they will put off more audience viewers than ever and pple will left to wonder “why oh why do i bother having faiht my preferred film will win” year after year…disenchantment is HUUUGE esp if either GRavity or Hustle do not win you watch…will oscar risk that? only when they reach panic stage like they are this year snubbing past african american wrtiers, producers, actors all working together in one film will they declare “this is overdue make hisotry day” give us a break from your b.s oscar
I actually think their major choices will reflect the Oscars on March 2.
Best Makeup – none of the films the Critics choice listed are Oscar nominated, but the Oscar will undoubtedly go to “Dallas Buyer’s Club” because of its Best Picture nomination.
Other than that, I think they’ve basically nailed every category to win at the Oscars.
Well..Well.. in a echo of the farcical manner in which the oscar noms were deligated…the self important self righteous overbloated critics choice awards have handed down a furfy of a result for the best pic winner. Only 3 critics choice awards for 12 years a slave…aND Gravity well done to it well deerved for the director Mr. Cuaron. He a genius for his vision ..and clearly both oscar and the critics choice are all in one voice behind Gravity.
12 years is and deserves to have a battle royale on its hands in a red hot oscar contest.
12 years is overrated cos of the categories it has missed out on in the oscaers it is without doubt i sorry to say this years most overhyped film.
The fact that Gravity and American Hustle lead the nominations combines with Cuaron’s consistent best director win…he wins the DGA and well in theory if oscar new the notion of consistency in decision making from guilds right through to their main awards, then history says the winner of the upcoming DGA awards is more important for chances of that film for best picture…than say….the winner of the PGA awards.
Furthermore the fact that Gravity won the most awards in the critics choice..bodes a greater chance for oscar to finally break the 50 foot thick ice to recognize a science genre based film 6 critics choice awards.
I foresee big problems for 12 yrs a slave…getting more loive from critics than awards season in truth…look at the inconsistency of cluster of awards it has won.
Furthermore if OScar are fairdingkom in tuning in to a globalized audience than surely Gravity should win. Taking into account the context of American Hustle with with its consistent acting wins is a very dangerous contender…a film that really cannot be flawed bout a rarer even than what 12 years covers…ther enot been a film of te quality of American Hustle i hate to say it but films bout slavery pfftt..they come up with another one soon.
American Hustle is a revival of Hollywoods 1970’s era but with innovative approach to story telling auithenticity rivalled by precise writing and meticulous detailing…indeed rare. But Gravity is a rarer event film..and i hope it wins as it will expose the folly of the bfca for what it is along with the critics cirlces farce farce FARCE!
And the public are sick and tired of it. Even if myt preferred film won, in critics choice/ circles etc, fact of matter is i dont care…let drop repoirting Sasha over the pointless critics choice merry go round…and focus on the guilds/ BAFTA and oscar…
It is oscar that will crash back down to earth with a mother of all thuds that wil shatter it dwindling credibiltiy in the eyes of a public audienc eit betrayed time and time again most years after year…by not embracing a truly most rarest of event films.the groundbreaking masterpiece nobody can fualt that is GRAVITY..i look forward to seeing oscar snub it not…if they knew what good for them they not pay lip service anymore to critics groups self righteous importance of trash
The ARGO -AMERICAN HUSTLE comparison is largely correct
Both were/are coming from behind to challenge the status of the front runner LINCOLN/12 YAS…both had momentum …both were default choices ….meaning that the frontrunners had failed to satify and impress the voters …both were seen as the least objectionable , a movie for consensus , the least devisive
12 YAS is stronger than LINCOLN was , but American Hustle is stronger than Argo was , with 4 acting noms 9 (only one has a real chance of winning )
Both ARGO and AH capture the 1970’s nostalgia well with the music , clothes and big hair , a decade that most Academy voters lived through and probably have fond memories of the sweet bird of youth
The main difference is that this year it is a three horse race where GRAVITY could sneak a victory
I agree with Thomas “Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong’o and Michael Fassbender must win the Oscar of performances because they are the best of 2013.”
12YAS is still going strong, and these actors will be rewarded.
Adams getting the award in comedy might help her chances out. I know, still Blanchett’s race to lose but if ‘Hustle” gains more momentum, Adams might be the likely of the four actors to win (again, the fact she’s the only one in her category without an Oscar already is going to win some sympathy votes) can play in her favor.
It’s more probable that split will happen and should be expected. Cuarón/12 Years I see happening now, but Gravity would be a pleasant no split winner. 12 Years is sort of safe Academy choice, Gravity would be genre-wise more interesting, AH would be Crash Part Deux.
Just watched the BFCA show and I want to see Lupita and Cate win (and they just may), because they are deserving and would give great speeches, too. Men could go differently, DBC may not get both, so Leto-DiCaprio is possible. McConaughey-NOT Leto would be interesting.
Are there video clips somewhere?
Even seasoned prognosticators seem to have given up on the idea of predicting the same film winning bd and bp almost per reflex.
And with the exception of last year due to the date change chaos, these seasoned prognosticators have been wrong in their split predictions, time and time again. Avatar/Cameron and Hurt Locker/Bigelow. King’s Speech/Hooper and Social Network/Fincher. Million Dollar Baby/Eastwood vs. Aviator/Marty. Etc.
I saw Sartre twice in Paris. “Jean Paul”, I said…”Are we not M E N ?
We are D E V O…”
I’m learning towards there being no split between picture and director. If AG takes PGA and SAG, then Cuaron’s grip on director slips pretty hard. Argo, Artist, and King’s Speech demonstrated the “me too” quality of the guilds.
I just don’t see AH winning picture but not director.
check out Chiwetel in Kinky Boots (the film). I believe anyone familiar with him from that role would be inclined to vote for him for 12 Years.
Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong’o and Michael Fassbender must win the Oscar of performances because they are the best of 2013.
Well BFCA comedy actor/actress doesn’t mean a shit..
Come on, don’t pretend that 12 Years A Slave isn’t a contender in many categories. Chiwetel isn’t out of the race. He could very well win SAG and BAFTA seems to be a lock.Lupita is extremely competitive. Screenplay is a near-lock. And then you have a possibility in Production Design. And of course NYFCC winner Steve McQueen could win the DGA. It’s not a sure thing that Cuaron will take the DGA. So 12 Years A Slave could win more than just three.
And then again, Gravity has a few BIG holes in its narrative. It’s 3D, sci-fi. It has no writing nomination and how many films have won without one? I can think of Titanic, but was a different story. Even Gladiator got a nod. And Gravity lacks a SAG nod in ensemble. Only one film has ever won without one – Braveheart.
Grand Hotel received only 1nomination best picture and won. It will not happen again.
Was there a film that has won nothing else but Best Picture?
If so, then either 12 Years or American Hustle could be that.
PGA can surprise…. I still remember the shock when Moulin Rouge won….and Little Miss Sunshine, but I’ll be shocked if AH loses PGA.
My guess is that AH wins PGA and that the BP race becomes boring. If Gravity or 12 Years wins we’re wide open, which would be fun.
Trust me, in addition to winning this (as I predicted) 12 Years will take the PGA and the BAFTA.
If AH manages to take SAG ensemble and Gravity takes DGA we still have quite a race on our hands.
If AH takes PGA I think that would make it the frontrunner, if 12 Years, on the other hand, takes SAG in addition to PGA the race is almost over.
Gravity taking DGA is only indicative of this being a very obvious example of a split year between director and picture. I know Sasha says you should never predict a split, but this year it would be foolish not to. Even seasoned prognosticators seem to have given up on the idea of predicting the same film winning bd and bp almost per reflex.
I start to think it could be like that year Cabaret won 8 Oscars but not Best Picture, The Godfather won BP.
Gravity, in my opinion, could really win: Best Director, Best VFX, Best Cinematography, Best Editing, Best Score, Best Sound (both category) for a total of 7.
American Hustle can win BP but then? I don’t think it can win a lot more… not even best screenplay against Her. J Law? ANd the film has not a nom for makeup&hair… costume maybe but that’s all. For a total of 2 or 3 Oscars…
12 years a slave can win BP but then? Lupita Nyong’o and screenplay, nothing else… I actually think the film can win only best screenplay and best picture, total of 2.
“The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship”
When it wins PGA, and possibly SAG tomorrow night, maybe you will change your mind.
Go Aussies!! yay for Cate and Catherine Martin’s costume design for Gatsby!! For Cate, I say just give her the Oscar now!!
And Cuaron can probably win Director over McQueen. Expect a Picture-Director split if Cuaron wins the DGA, because it would be a big deal for Gravity to top both Slave and Hustle for Best Picture. The clout of Sandy and Clooney can help him get that award where a less popular team would fail. The respect for the artistry, a la Pi last year. I only wonder why this kind of spreading around of the awards didn’t happen when The King’s Speech swept. Nolan was so undeservedly snubbed for Inception. Black Swan and The Social Network were just too downbeat, too pessimistic, too critical of society, I suppose. 12YAS is stark and unsentimental, but not without a silver lining. The Wolf of Wall Street is the one that’s too dark, too polarizing for the win.
I don’t think this is like last year, where the Academy will feel the need to throw its Best Picture extra wins that it doesn’t need or deserve. Slave will be that rare Best Picture that they feel obligated to award despite not really loving. But they won’t overdo it because they don’t feel like they have to. A critically acclaimed film about American slavery need not win Editing or even every acting category over another important film about AIDS.
The one political decision is how to reward Hustle, and it may have to be in Production Design if they are deadset on giving Her screenplay and Lupita supporting. But if Chiwetel wins the SAG, then they may just be willing to give JLaw the Oscar again, but I doubt it, and I now doubt Chiwetel wins anything but the BAFTA.
Lupita is the new it girl though. That cape. And now this speech. She wants it; they all want it for her. JLaw just won and won’t be the least bit upset. SAG should have gone gaga for Hustle, but then Silver Linings or Lincoln should have beaten Argo at SAG last year. Instead it has become another Best Picture award. And the SAG nominations — and final ballots — come in so early before voters have a chance to see the late releases. JLaw is the only actor nominated from Hustle, this for a film that accomplished the rare feat of 4 acting nominations in all 4 categories. It’s Silver Linings all over again. Except Slave doesn’t need Ejiofor to win the big prize. Dallas Buyers’ shocking Ensemble nomination means 2 acting awards.
Plus Slave is so heavy-hitting. My votes would actually go to JLaw and probably Ejiofor, but when they play the clips, Nyong’o looks so dramatic next to JLaw, whereas Ejiofor isn’t the one being raped and whipped. And then you see McConaughey and all that weight loss, and how thin he still looks now. This has an Oscar win written all over it, for a big star finally taking the dramatic plunge, like Erin Brockovich and The Blind Side.
To me it seems iffy to give Best Picture to Slave and not award Ejiofor not because it’s unprecedented but because he’s the commanding lead of the movie. But both actors from Slave don’t have to win for the film to take Best Picture, probably just one.
They are crazy for 12 YAS over here in the UK …IT WILL SWEEP BAFTA
However , the smoking gun for me is BALE ( 100-1 at the bookies )being nominated ; it is the ”canary in the coalmine ” …the fact that they could nominate him over much superior competition is CLEARLY indicitive of the love for A H …I wish it wasn’t so , but it is ….BALE has torpedoed 12 YAS and I’m jumping ship
The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship
The win tonight for 12 YAS keeps it afloat TEMPORARILY, but it’s a doomed sinking ship
Alright, Buford T Jutice, you got my attention.
I’m now wondering how closely you’re acquainted with that suspicious concern-troll benny tarleton — the guy who was passively-aggessively undermining 12 Years a Slave for weeks before we called him out on his not-so-hidden agenda. Has anyone ever seen the two of you in the same room together?
Best Picture Winners that had a Central Lead losing/not nominated, that still won:
Dances with Wolves (1990)
Unforgiven (1992)
Schindler’s List (1993)
Braveheart (1995)
The English Patient (1996)
Titanic (1997)
A Beautiful Mind (2001)
Chicago (2002)
The Lord of the Rings: Return of the King (2003)
Crash (2005)
The Departed (2006)
Slumdog Millionaire (2008)
The Hurt Locker (2009)
Argo (2012)
Ejiofor not winning Best Actor doesn’t mean beans for 12 Years a Slave’s chances.
What’s REALLY crazy- is had 12 Years lost the Globe/BFCA, we’d hear “Told you it wasn’t a favorite.” Now its WINNING those, and still the same arguments.
Lupita’s winning BFCA is a small triumph; it will be better if she wins SAG. Still, even if Lawrence prevails at SAG and BAFTA, the Oscars are more open to upsets in the supporting races. To win a back to back award is no easy task. But Lawrence benefits from being in a Best Picture frontrunner, easily the strongest to win an acting award from that movie, and the It girl of Hollywood. SAG is Saturday. Then we wait for BAFTA, and then the Oscars aren’t until March 2nd. Time will tell.
Just wait for the guilds. But I have a feeling even those won’t help. Except SAG will clear up Best Supporting Actress.
However , the academy will look to award Hustle somewhere and Supporting actress is the only category it can easily win regardless of SAG.
It’s going to be another spread-out year, which is befitting the quality and diversity of the nominees. I don’t understand how 12 Years a Slave can win a Best Picture award but its lead actor loses, given how central Ejiofor is to the film’s resonance. But that would be in a normal year. Everyone knew McConaughey was coming this year (Leo too). The physical changes he underwent still gravely noticeable. Dallas Buyers Club is not Blue Jasmine, a one-woman show with enough support to get a second acting nod, but a Best Picture, Screenplay, and Editing nominee. McConaughey wins SAG and Oscar, and Ejiofor has to settle for BAFTA. It’s just weird that the Best Picture will actually go to the film they feel they HAVE to reward rather than the one they necessarily like the most.
And Lupita wins. But if Her wins screenplay, Hustle would go home empty-handed. And everyone likes Her. Hustle might have to settle for a random Production Design win?? Like last year when Lincoln beat Anna Karenina because, on paper, it was an easy switch
I imagine ”12 Years a Slave” will get a big boost at the BAFTAs, where it could sweep. With all the British talent involved, like London-born Steve McQueen, it’s sure to be a hometown favorite. Chiwetel Ejiofor, who’s also London-born, and Michael Fassbender could easily win because their toughest Academy Award competition didn’t even get BAFTA nods: Matthew McConaughey and Jared Leto.
”Philomena” probably would get Best British Film. The BAFTAs are given out Feb. 16, just about a week before the Oscar balloting ends.
Argo didn’t underperform quantitatively. Actually it overperformed. It was expected to get Picture, Director, Writing, Editing, Score and Alan Arkin. It was snubbed in Director but got the two sound nominations that virtually nobody was predicting. 12 Years a Slave didn’t get in a single category this way. It’s the opposite: it was snubbed in categories the vast majority was predicting it would get nominated.
Remember: Argo was not a period film that was supposed to score 11-12 nominations. 12 Years a Slave is this kind of film.
And Robert – you’re probably right about Screenplay. I forgot it had such weak competition. Not to say it CAN’T lose (when they want to shut you out, they shut you out), but it’s looking very good.
I knew you wouldn’t get the “coincidence” comment… It was a bit vague, so it’s my fault. I meant coincidence as in “it just happened that they liked the most artistically accomplished movie that year”. I think, given their track record, it’s safe to say that, as a group, their tastes are less than impressive and trustworthy when it comes to deciding which movie will stand the test of time because of its artistic qualities. So why should we assume that when they do get it right it’s because somehow they’re suddenly, for a year or two, less “safe” or “mainstream”, more intelligent and artistic?… Their decision process as a group is obviously based on a number of factors, most of them political and popularity-related, the least of which is artistic worth…
As for the state of the race:
1. NOTHING that loses all three SAG, PGA and DGA, is EVER competitive (don’t cite 1995, it was the first SAG year and obviously an anomaly). Can you please tell me which of these 12 Years a Slave is a favorite to win? Maybe PGA, although I can’t really see a strong argument for it – but would that even be enough, when Gravity is almost definitely winning the DGA and Hustle the SAG? Then how is it the frontrunner? And I’ve never denied it was in the game – at least until the guilds announce. I just said it was now the underdog, which is debatable, perhaps, but there’s no real question of it being any kind of a big favorite, like some people seem to think.
2. Who says it has to go the Lincoln route?! I brought up Lincoln in a different debate, the one about “what else can it win”. There are many ways to lose Best Picture… It can just go the 12 Years a Slave route – winning Globe, BFCA (who are obviously completely irrelevant compared to the guilds – Argo didn’t win last year because of the Globes and BFCA, it won because of the guilds) and then nothing else.
3. I did happen to mention the number of noms stat – how only 3 movies outside the top 2 in nominations have won Best Picture in the last 31 years, and this happening in consecutive years is pretty much unheard of. Is that not more relevant than two wins with under-500 voter groups? You can’t just keep using Argo as an argument against everything – if anything, Argo pulling off all that weird shit last year makes it FAR LESS LIKELY that anything remotely close to that will happen again this year.
So no, just winning BP at the Globes and Critics Choice, without winning Director, is sadly not nearly enough to ensure 12 Years will even stay in the race all the way to the end, let alone ever manage to become any kind of a significant favorite (unless it sweeps the guilds, which I’d love, but won’t happen).
And Claudiu, I said “if” American Hustle can’t win original screenplay. I was offering a hypothetical. Her does seem to be giving it competition, so my point is, if AH can’t win screenplay, it’s probably not your BP winner. Obviously AH could still win original screenplay at the Oscars, and I still think it has a good chance of doing so. But it doesn’t have the firm grip on this category I thought it would have.
On the other hand, I stand by my belief that 12 Years a Slave is all but guaranteed a best adapted screenplay win. Its competition is Before Midnight, Captain Phillips, Philomena, and WoWS. I don’t see how it loses, frankly. I think a win for 12 Years here is about as obvious as the wins for Leto in supporting and Blanchett in lead actress.
And Jason, I agree with you about the 12 Years/Lincoln comparisons. One of the most tired arguments is when people say, “12 Years is this year’s Lincoln,” completely overlooking that Lincoln won almost no BP prizes the entire season, while 12 Years leads the pack for BP wins. Doesn’t mean that 12 Years will win BP at the Oscars, but comparing its performance to Lincoln is just kind of silly.
Everything that has happened so far this season leads to the only conclusion: 12YAS is the heavy favorite. I don’t know why, but this is really the only place that has been constantly pushing the “American Hustle is the favorite” narrative. What the hell has AH won? Best Comedy at GG’s? No big surprise. Won’t be a surprise if it wins SAG either, but thats it.
Obviously PGA will have a huge say… but for now, if 12YAS loses Best Picture… that will be a MASSIVE upset. If 12YAS wins SAG OR PGA, I think its officially over.
Yes to Jason Travis and Robert A. and ObamaWins
“I will be quite happy for you (and myself) if 12 Years a Slave does end up winning the big one, but I’ll never delude myself into thinking it was actually about its artistic merits. Just coincidence…”
^This is an interesting philosophy, Claudiu, and I just can’t agree with it. I may not agree with King’s Speech, The Artist, or Argo winning, but I can understand it. And I can understand that it’s not coincidence. And I can understand that they have merit, and the way in which voters see them as having merit. There’s no set of rules to these things, but when a movie “clicks” as “good” and as “a winner,” it does so for a reason, not randomness. So the fun of this is often tracing _the way_ that voters evaluate and decide what is best. But it’s not random, and not coincidence. And 12 Years wouldn’t win because of “coincidence.”
My claim is that _the way_ that 12 Years is a good and important and award-worthy movie will, among voters, trump _the way_ that American Hustle is regarded as a good and award-worthy movie this year. I happen to agree with the idea that 12 Years should win. But I try not to let that get in the way of my predictions, imperfect as they are. (Though I’ve been happily somewhat strong with my predictions so far–75 nominations correct today, Golden Globes almost entirely correct).
Nyong’o did herself the most good, tonight.
Lubezki is my bottom line this year.
@Claudiu: The difference is that ARGO won Best Picture (Drama) and BFCA Best Picture, the same awards 12 Years a Slave just won. So can’t really see where you’re going, except yes American Hustle won Comedy Picture at the Globes.
I would understand if 12 Years a Slave was going the Lincoln route, almost winning top award and than losing. But it’s not- it’s winning. Even if it loses PGA and SAG, it’s now competitive for the Oscar. Regardless of the hype. Voters have over a month now to look at the absurdity of American Hustle’s overhaul of undeserved nods (in particular, Christian Bale taking Redford’s slot). But that’s my opinion of course.
The reality is that this is a wide open race. But I don’t see AH being the Best Picture winner. Also, David O. Russell may get the nominations, but he’s a very VERY Controversial figure. Best Director is going to Cuaron or McQueen. Best Screenplay is probably going to Her. Blanchett and McConaughey/DiCaprio are lead wins. Leto is Supporting Actor. Lawrence is duking it out now with Lupita for Supporting Actress. AH ain’t no way in hell a Best Picture winner.
Where’s the final list of winners? I have the CW, but it’s not on the telly.
Jerry, I honestly have no idea why you keep hanging on to this belief that “artistry” and quality have anything to do with what the Academy awards Best Picture. It’s noble and I admire the passion, but I’ve seen too many folks think like that and be disappointed in the end pretty much every single time over the years.
I will be quite happy for you (and myself) if 12 Years a Slave does end up winning the big one, but I’ll never delude myself into thinking it was actually about its artistic merits. Just coincidence…
And No Country was the important movie – not sure what you mean by that, but I don’t think that can be right, not in that year…
Robert, this same exact shit came up last year in the Argo-Lincoln debate: how Argo couldn’t win because it wasn’t winning any other important awards. And then, of course, it started winning Screenplay everywhere (So, yeah, 12 Years is NOT all but guaranteed a Screenplay win) and then everything else. And it didn’t even have a Best Director nomination, which AH does.
This “what else is it winning” stuff is by far the weakest argument for something not winning Best Picture at the Oscars. If they like it enough for BP, they INEVITABLY will make it so that it somehow does win some other major award as well. It stands to reason.
I think y’all are being way too optimistic for 12 Years after these two wins – the situation has improved, but not by that much. The only thing that has changed is that we’re all slightly less sure of what’s winning the PGA than before the Globes and whether or not it can actually be 12 Years. But, other than that, these two wins don’t mean jack shit… And it’s still entirely conceivable that Hustle will even sweep the guilds. It’s not even particularly unlikely!
I think the noms announced earlier today are far more relevant. Something outside the top two in nominations winning BP is so, so rare and twice in a row – it’s probably not happened for 70 years or something… And they’re especially relevant because they could have EASILY NOT snubbed 12 Years in those extra categories, had they really loved it so much.
I agree, Robert A. It’s about the PGA at this point.
But I think the good money’s on 12 Years at the PGA. I just never agreed that AH’s ensemble and nomination showing solidified it as #1. I have thought that Sasha’s (and others’) argument that it is “the new Argo” that “everyone likes” has been wrong, partly because of a misreading of the movie and the _way_ that people like it. It has spawned an overexaggeration of the “big bad American movie that doesn’t deserve to win Best Picture but wins Best Picture.” In fact, it’s not that kind of movie at all. It’s weirder. Lots of people hate it. It’s fun. It doesn’t compare in importance or artistry to this year’s real winner. 12 Years is the important movie, like Schindler’s List, like Return of the King, like No Country, like Hurt Locker.
Happy gravity wins the most awards tonight.
Gravity is this year’s Life of Pi. It will win directing, visual effects, cinematography, sound, sound editing.
Agreef. Robert A and Jason Travis.
For the millionth time:
12 Years a Slave did NOT underperform in Nominations!
– 9 nods including ALL Key categories it was expected in. Cinematography and Score snubs do not count as underperforming. Lord of the Rings: Return of the King was expected to WIN Cinematography in 2003- it lost the nod, then won all 11 of it’s nominations.
– It won Best Picture now at Golden Globes and BFCA.
– It’s still a Drama, something American Hustle is not marketed as (despite not being funny at all).
I find it crazy that just LAST YEAR, Argo gets only 7 nods including NO best director and people touted Lincoln, Life of Pi and Silver Linings Playbook as the movies to beat. Seriously people, have you not learned how the Oscars roll?
And Ryan- Props to you for your Headline statement today regarding 12 Years: Washington FUCKING Post! Amen.
“Guys, let’s face it. It’s winning Best Picture at the Oscars. I thought I was going nuts. Depictions of AH being “the one that everyone loves this year” and “the frontrunner” has just been wrong, stemming from a misunderstanding of the widespread admiration of the movie.”
I think it’s too soon to call the race until we start hearing from the guilds, but I know what you mean, Jerry Grant. I also was baffled when people started declaring American Hustle the likely winner almost from out of nowhere. The problem for AH is this: most BP winners need to win at least one of director/screenplay/editing. AH was supposed to be the original screenplay winner, but Her has been beating it recently. If AH can’t win original screenplay, and if Cuaron is indeed as far out front in director as people think, then what does AH have to win to vault it to a BP prize? Editing is doubtful (wasn’t even nominated for editing at BAFTA). The only acting award it has a chance at winning is supporting actress, and it’s not going to win much (if anything) in the techies. So…how does it win BP on so little? At least 12 Years is all but guaranteed a screenplay win, has a decent chance at an acting award, and could perhaps pick up a techie or to. (And we need to hear from DGA to confirm if Cuaron is the likely director winner).
I’m cautiously optimistic for 12 Years a Slave, but I need to see it win PGA before I get more than cautiously optimistic. I will point out that 12 Years has won a whole crapload of BP prizes from critics as well as BP from the Globes and now BFCA. No other movie so far this season has won as many BP citations as 12 Years a Slave. But Gravity’s strength in the directing and editing categories as well as several likely techie wins make it the biggest threat to 12 Years, I still think, not AH.
The guilds, as always, will give us the full picture.
Don’t make too much of this, the PGA will decide all, etc
Sasha, are you still being a defeatist now? Your predictions were totally off. AH didn’t sweep, did it? Not only it didn’t sweep, it lost writing, directing, and acting. Maybe you should be more optimistic from now on.
Great show, Aisha Tyler was great. Loved lupita she was so cute when she won. So happy 12 years won bp!
Looks almost identical to the Golden Globes in the major categories. It’s so odd seeing these wins spread out so much. I’ll be surprised if 12 Years a Slave wins at the Oscars that it will only go home with two or three Oscars. It just seems so… low.
JP, that’s probably the “safest” scenario for Oscar voters, considering that Cuaron, McQueen and Russell would all walk away with Oscars. Now just let Her win Original Song so that Jonze can win one too.
I’m just glad that even though I don’t take my own predicting seriously I never ever (I think) said 12 YEARS would not win Best Picture, and never ever suggested GRAVITY or HUSTLE would/could win. That’s something.
Harvey will get U2 the Oscars they should have since Gangs of New York.
This could be a unique Oscars total tally
Gravity: 7
12 YAS: 2 or 3 (Picture, Screenplay and maybe Lupita)
American Hustle: 1 or 2 (Screenplay and Lawrence)
Dallas Buyers Club: 3
Gravity with 4 Oscars ahead of the 2nd highest winner… and will still not win Best Picture.
No matter how much Harvey tries, Philomena is not winning Best Picture…neither is Meryl Streep (even though she is good!)…Julia Roberts win would be shocking though:))