Is it finally time?
Sent to me by reader John but I couldn’t confirm whether it’s an official poster or fan made – either…
Leonardo DiCaprio was the best thing about this year’s Great Gatsby. He turns in a career best performance in The…
I still think McConaughey will win, but I so want Leo to take it home!
Either it’s not working or it’s my computer. Anyone else having an issue?
Leo is so winning the Oscar! Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan at Gold Derby are predicting him!
So the argument is that because O’Neil and Sheehan are predicting him, he’s winning?
Of all the candidates, Leo truly is the rightful winner of the Oscar. The odds say that it will go to McConaughey, but I’m stubbornly sticking by my hunch that Mr. DiCaprio will join the club on March 2nd.
I don’t see the article.
“Leo is so winning the Oscar! Tom O’Neil and Paul Sheehan at Gold Derby are predicting him!”
24 experts (including Sasha) at Gold Derby are predicting McConaughey. 3 are predicting Leo.
Vily, weren’t you saying last week that Leo was “so winning the BAFTA”?
No, I don’t see a link to the article, or an existing on this page article.
I think Leo’s chances are being vastly overrated by the whole commentariat. He is number three or four in my estimate, battling it out with Dern.
Ejiofor could benefit from a final surge of post-BAFTA goodwill and his starring in the (co-)frontrunner will boost his chances considerably, especially since most voters are probably aware of 12YAS risking a meagre two or three wins on oscar night. That might push voters to vote for Ejiofor to secure the film another win in a vital category (since BD is a lost cause).
But, really, McConaughey will take this home. Only question mark for me in addition to the Ejiofor/12YAS thing is if voters feel that Leto AND McConaughey are too much reward for a merely ok movie. But the performances in themselves are undeniable, and I don’t think voters will flee from McConaughey now if they enjoyed his performance the first time around (which they obviously did, SAG win and all)
If there’s one thing I really want to happen on March 2nd, it is this one. As much as I liked Matthew in DBC, Wolf was the better film, and Leo had the more daring performance even. I think 12YAS was even better than Wolf, but Ejiofor winning would be a downer, because I think the overdue factor comes to play here. I know it should never be a factor, but what can you do when “the kid” has so many great performances under his belt. Okay, top 5:
1. What’s Eating Gilbert Grape/The Wolf of Wall Street (I really can’t choose)
3. Catch Me If You Can
4. This Boy’s Life
5. Django Unchained
Had he been nominated last year – with or without Christoph Waltz in the same category – he would’ve won and we wouldn’t have this conversation now. What he HAS been nominated for (minus Grape and Wolf) are not his best performances.
Plus another factor that should not matter, but I think about it anyway. He seems to be a really good guy – caring about this planet is not a bad thing. He has good “hippie-parents”. And he’d give a great speech.
Yeah, what’s with the link? There’s nothing.
Nothing would make me happier than DiCaprio pulling off the a -quite shocking- victory, but it’s not happening. Someone said that TRUE DETECTIVE is the best possible Oscar campaign ever, and I have to agree. Even the snobbiest elements in AMPAS will be turned out!
I am actually disgusted with myself because I will be ecstatic with MacConaughey’s victory even when I don’t like the film. First time that’s ever happened to me. Unfortunately my policy of not *ever* awarding performances from mediocre films is still in full effect. I’m only making an exception this year.
The reason behind me predicting Leo at the Oscars is because of the fact that we have a three-way race. The fact that Ejiofor won the BAFTA, I think that he’ll take votes away from McConaughey thus making room for Leo to emerge. The demographic that would vote fort McConaughey is similar to the demographic that would vote for Ejiofir. DiCaprio is a whole different animal altogether and I think that he can emerge the winner in the end. Jeffrey Wells is now predicting Leo as well. Technically, Sasha should predict Leo too but she’s playing it safe.
Ok, now I have to:
Top 10 Leo Performances:
1. THE WOLF OF WALL STREET
2. THE DEPARTED
3. REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
4. CATCH ME IF YOU CAN
5. THE AVIATOR
6. DJANGO UNCHAINED
7. ROMEO + JULIET
9. WHAT’S EATING GILBERT GRAPE
10. SHUTTER ISLAND
Guilty Pleasure (the performance, not the film): THE QUICK AND THE DEAD
Leo’s legacy deserves an Oscar, as does his performance. But that doesn’t mean it’s the best performance of the year. I would put Ejiofor and McConaughey both above DiCaprio as best lead male performance for the year.
I keep using the argument of:
Will the voters REALLY put down both Leto AND McConaughey? Not to mention Make-Up.
Id think that Leto was more of a sure thing in his category than McConaughey (though Abdi is picking up steam).
I just don’t see a Matthew Mc win, I don’t, and I enjoyed his performance in DBC – but Leto’s performance made more of an impression upon me.
This is a fight between Chiwetel and Leo, and may the best dude win. I’m really torn, … but, leaning on Leo side because once again, he killed it in WoWS!
Yes, John, I use this argument too. And I keep reminding myself that the last time it happened (lead and supporting male winners being from the same film) was in 2003/04, for Mystic River. I didn’t look up to see how many times it has happened before that, but I feel DBC is no Mystic River. Although those awards were the only ones (out of 6) Eastwood’s film got that night.
AMPAS with all their flaws and politics, is not going to possibly award DBC with both BA and BSA – no way in a year with stellar performances from actors of 12YAS, Capt Phillips and WoWS. Only one may win… both? Hell naw.
@Jerry Grant, precisely because you would put McVcobsufhey and Ejiofor above Leo is the reason why he might beat them both. People who liked both Ejiofor and Mattherw’s performances will split – remember they can only choose one of them – not both.
Thus, the alternative – Leo will emerge. Leo can only sit votes with Bale who also delivers somewhat of a comedic performance. But the majority of the demographic would vote for him. Therefore, he can emerge. It’s crazy but I think that it can happen! And it would be a glorious feeling!!!! :-)()
Sorry for the hideous misspelling – writing from an iPhone..
That’s not true Vily, you really just don’t know how to spell Matthew’s last name. LOL! :p
Now The Wolf of Wall Street is being sued! UGH!!!
The movie is getting sued because of a Toupee. No Shit!!
Bruce Dern gave the best performance. I’m ok with any performance winning though, they were all very good-great. Bale was the weakest, and that tells me at least, what a great group of nominees it is.
I still think MM has this in the bag, I really don’t think Leo has the backing that people think he does. Guys in their 20′s and early 30′s WORSHIP him and think he is the single greatest actor of his generation and find it so shocking he hasn’t won.
But if you look at the years he’s been nominated, he is never, not even close, to being the best performance of the year. Same goes for this year, sure Wolf is his best performance yet, and the first one where I really saw what people see in him, but MM and Ejiofor are just better, IMO.
Especially with how MM has been knocking it out of the park lately, and also has a lengthy history in Hollywood, has also gone from pretty-boy actor to serious actor, and is also in his career best role. The difference is his role is the kind that the AMPA’s just eat up, so I really can’t see MM losing this one. If he does I’ll be happy for Leo and his fans though!
“I think Leo’s chances are being vastly overrated by the whole commentariat.”
I agree with Julian the Emperor. It’s a similar point I was making a week or two ago. The Interwebs are hot for Leo, so Leo’s chances for either nominations or wins constantly get inflated by the chattering class. It happens every year.
AMPAS, in general, seems much less hot for Leo than the legions of Leo fans on the Interwebs.
I can’t really think of any acting win in modern Academy history that might be comparable to a Leo win, simply because Leo’s won very little all season. No critical prizes of note, no SAG nomination, no BFCA Lead Actor nomination (in a field of six), no BAFTA win. He’s only won a Globe/Comedy and a BFCA/Comedy. But we’re somehow supposed to think he’s going to win the biggest prize of all? If this was going to happen, I tend to think we would have seen hints of it by now (like a BAFTA win, which first forecast the Brody upset in 2002). I guess the best example people can use is a Marcia Gay Harden type win in Supporting Actress back in 2000, but even she had won some high-profile critical awards such as NYFC. Plus, that year was a famously unsettled year in the category, with Hudson winning the Globe and Dench winning SAG, and Harden winning the critical stuff. McConaughey has won both Globe and SAG.
I understand what people are saying about DBC winning three Oscars…but why can’t DBC win two of the four? It’s happened before. I don’t think the key issue is how often a movie has won Lead Actor and Supporting Actor, but how often AMPAS has awarded two (or more) acting Oscars to the same film. And just in the past 10 years they’ve done it three times–Mystic River, M$B, The Fighter. It’s unusual but not that out of the box. Plus the industry has been generous to DBC this entire season, suggesting there’s a lot of support for it, and both McConaughey’s and Leto’s roles are so up the Academy’s alley (the transformation thing) that I could easily see AMPAS giving two acting awards to DBC.
The type of character Leo plays–partying, hedonistic–is not the sort of role AMPAS usually rewards.
Finally, didn’t Liza Minnelli say, at one point, when presenting a film award to McConaughey at a film festival, that if he didn’t win an Oscar for DBC, she’d give him hers? Maybe AMPAS will award McConaughey just so Liza can keep her Oscar? (Although come to think of it, McConaughey might make a rather eye-raising Sally Bowles.)
If you pull back from the Interwebs Leo hysteria, you start to see how difficult a Leo victory would be. Not impossible, of course, because surprises happen. But unlikely.
(PS It’s fun to write Interwebs!)
Who is Andrew Greene? Why, he’s “Wigman” of course!
Speaking of Oscar campaigns, Huffington Post Live has a fun, 30-minute, online discussion called ”How to Really Win an Oscar.” Ricky Camilleri hosts a panel of PR legend Peggy Siegel, Melena Ryzik (New York Times), Pete Hammond (Deadline Hollywood) and Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair). They discuss topics like, how Weinstein campaigned and won for ”The King’s Speech”; the genius PR move for ”Philomena”; why the Woody Allen brouhaha won’t hurt Cate Blanchett, etc.
Chitwetel is electrifying in 12YAS…. Personally I rather see Leo wins if Chiwetel doesn’t get it. Leo’s body of work and his actual performance are too impressive to ignore. But in reality, I think Chitwerel will siphon votes from Leo that will lead to a MM win.
Has WOW won anything???
Well, after seeing that featurette, there’s not a quiet moment in that movie is there?
If Leo had done some regular movies along the way he would be a better Oscar candidate. every actor but him has had to turn in great work with crap dialog in mediocre projects. he doesn’t have that cred of giving it everything even when he knows the film is gonna suck anyway.
“The type of character Leo plays–partying, hedonistic–is not the sort of role AMPAS usually rewards.”
Absolutely right, Robert. “Positively no hedonism allowed” is stamped on the business cards or every AMPAS member.
Leo’s not winning – that hope went down with the BAFTAs. Unless Chiwetel performs a miracle, Huckleberry Hound is hitting the podium on Oscar night.
‘… Maybe AMPAS will award McConaughey just so Liza can keep her Oscar?’
lol…That’s the best argument I’ve seen this whole season.
‘..(PS It’s fun to write Interwebs!)’
It can’t possibly be as fun as writing ‘commentariat.’
Thanks Julian, that may be my favorite new word of the year so far.
Maybe I’m on the minority, but I find Matthew McConaughey’s performance overrated in DBC, specially after I’ve been watching him on True Detective, where he’s excellent. In my opinion, on DBC it was like seeing the same guy of How To Lose a Guy in 10 Days but with 45 pound less. To me the real standout of DBC is Jared Leto.
I know is also a fact that McConaughey is going to win the Oscar, because that is the type of performance that the Academy likes it, but is kinda unfair, specially after so many great performances that weren’t recognize in the year like Joaquin Phoenix, Michael B. Jordan and Oscar Isaac, among others.
However, what can I say about Leo DiCaprio’s performance. I was literally blow away by him that I can’t find the right words to explained it. I really like the collaboration between him and Scorsese, The Departed is one of my all time favorite films, but TWOWS exceeded all my expectations. Besides seriously Leo has 4 nominations already, it’s time to reward Leo and what better way with the best performance of his career. Also after seeing McConaughey on True Detective and with Interstellar this year, I think he can give even a better performance than DBC.
I’m not sure how well liked McConaughey is in tinsel town.
Personally, I find him arrogant and smug in the interviews I’ve seen. And I’ve caught him looking/staring at his reflection . . . irritating narcisstic behavior. The pretty boy still needs to prove himself in the Hollywood establishment.
Leo’s got this one in the bag. A great performance.
I’m rooting wholeheartedly for Leo and have been since the day I saw the movie. However, this is the first time I can remember being okay with any of the nominees winning in any category. I usually think someone or some film doesn’t belong. But this year all of the lead actors are deserving for once.
Keifer has ‘caught’ MM ‘staring/looking at his reflection..’
That settles it then.
I love Leo, but some of you guys.. lol
It’s the season, I guess.
DiCaprio was terrific, tho i would vote for Dern (he and the film were marvelous) or Ejiofor (who was phenomenal in 12Y). Leo has another up his sleeve that is probably a shoe in for the big prize. in a recent Variety article he discusses the role:
Off all the film and TV projects Appian has in the works, DiCaprio seems most enthusiastic about the adaptation of Erik Larson’s true tale “The Devil in the White City: Murder, Magic, and Madness at the Fair That Changed America,” in which the actor would play serial killer H.H. Holmes. “We have a script for that. We’re doing our last couple rewrites, but it’s amazing,” he enthuses. “I want to be in that one. That one is very real.”
the combo of an acclaimed novel, the role of the first documented serial killer in America, and if he can get Scorsese to direct, he could go all the way. WOLF simply cements his eligibility for an Oscar. they can’t deny him again with DEVIL.
As much as i would love to see Leonardo win an Oscar, my gut is telling me that it will be Matthew. Chiwitel would be the surprise, and not out of the realm of possibility. Leo is going to be Paul Newman or Peter O’Toole. He’ll have to endure 6 or 7 failed noms before his narrative comes. Hopefully. Matthew’s narrative is more AMPAS and more Hollywood. Pin up boy made good, transformation role. He has really reinvented himself these last 3 years. It is a great year for performances.
As I understand it, diCaprio has not won a single “Best Actor” precursor outright, he only has two “Best Actor in a Comedy” awards (Golden Globes & Broadcast Film Critics). So for him to take home the Oscar would be totally unprecedented, especially in a year where he is up against such magnificent performances as those by McConaughey and Ejiofor. I’m not saying it is impossible…only extremely unlikely.
Sure, he was good in WoWS, but at the same time it was impossible to forget who was playing the role. Daniel Day-Lewis he ain’t…his best shot at an Oscar will probably come when (if) he takes a part where he really can play against his usual type of role.
DiCaprio is the rightful winner of the Oscar.. Then Chiwetel Ejiofor and Bruce Dern.
I hope this is is DiCaprio’s year!
Two comedy awards and no SAG is the kiss of death. Watched that Huff Post video that was linked about “Dirty Campaigning” and Peggy Seigel totally stole the show from Pete Hammond and even the New York Times gal, the current carpetbagger. Her refrain “the Academy voters are astute” and “I’m just a caterer” Lol…
She said that Steve McQueen addressing the UN is HUGE! I still say BAFTA got Chiwetel back where he belongs ~ In the Main Spot to win!
He’s a distinguished actor with class and a long track record of great, ground-breaking performances. I’m getting Adrian Brody vibes from him. Definitely.
And BTW I predicted Adrian Brody to win on my TV show when no one else had him. And my show has been on for over 26 years doing this, predating both Tom O. and yes, even Sasha.
Matthew McConaughey comes off as a white trash hick every time he opens his mouth. Sorry, but he does. And they are NOT going to give a small low budget film from a failed distributor, Focus, TWO awards.
Jared Leto will get it, but not MM.And also not Leo.
I admire DiCaprio enormously. Is there any other movies star who has been so brave, daring and unrelenting in portraying such a damaged and damaging character? Great actor, best performance of his career and a great producer for having pushed by the project for so long.
But this year, it is as simple as this. 12 Years a Slave. Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Screenplay.
Think Gandhi in ’83. Everyone assumed ET would sweep, but it didn’t. Gandhi has not aged all that well, but the Academy seized its opportunity to recognize the film’s value. 12 Years has an historical, cultural, national, global, racial and human weight to it that the other films simply do not have. Gravity is great fun. Emotionally and technically brilliant, but its a conceit. A game. An exercise. 12 Years is flesh and soul.
Maybe, but I think there are two real issues with DiCaprio never having gone the distance, and why again, he won’t go the distance this year:
1) He never actually transforms himself to become unrecognizable. McConaughey did that this year. For DiCaprio to win an Oscar, he needs to do something altogether different. No, J. Edgar wasn’t that. No, Django wasn’t that. He needs to alter his affects, his instincts, his mannerisms in more fundamental ways.
2) He never makes us cry. Instead, we watch him crying. (The only time he’s made us cry is _Gilbert Grape_.)
These are not defenses of him not winning. (He deserves it!) But these are two big reasons for why each of his great performances have not been able to compete with the year’s Oscar winner, including this year with McConaughey (or Ejiofor, who has a better shot).
“Think Gandhi in ’83. Everyone assumed ET would win, but it didn’t.”
Is this true, though? My understanding was that everyone pretty much knew that Gandhi was going to sweep that year.
Leonardo is deserving (one day) – but, not for this mess of a movie. I saw Wolf yesterday – while I enjoy his dramatics & fights with his 2nd wife – come on – the second 1/2 of this performance is so over-the-top horrible. The entire drive to the country club and kitchen scene with Jonah Hill were ‘jump the shark’ bad. I didn’t think the movie could out-bad itself until the quasi-Cape Fear-type sequence that was around the corner. While Goodfellas is the gold standard of filmmaking excellence, this film rests alongside Casino was structurally similiar wannabe. Leo’s character arc might follows Henry Hill’s, but the ‘magic’ is missing. Screaming, anger scenes with Leo trudge on – his rally the troops speechs wane on – I give the guy credit…he shows his chops, but, there’s something better for him.
‘…Matthew McConaughey comes off as a white trash hick every time he opens his mouth.’
I can’t even…
Well im hoping for…leto! And good luck to everyone else!
@RAZOR….man you are so far off the beam. DiCaprio has played against his type so many times — Gilbert Grape, Aviator, Shutter Island, J. Edgar, the nefarious plantation owner of Django. Sheesh, now he plays a role where he is actually playing a contemporary character clearly different from these types of roles and you think he isn’t. Gimme a freaking break. You are dead in the water there, my friend. What are you fugging talking about? Weird. Anyhow, it’s probably going to Dern or MM (maybe)– and although I initially liked MM in True Detective, his performance is becoming more than a little annoying, even dull. Read Michael Musto’s piece on the oscar voter who spilled the beans on who and what they voted for (anonymously, of course). Interesting read and a good indicator of why AMPAS is hardly the place to go if you want to know what’s great and what’s not. Sure they get it right on occasion, but more often than not votes are based on who they like, who sucks up to them, and reasoning based on fairly “common” poorly thought out prejudices which have little to do with true intelligence or art. It’s just what they like which may or may not be the “BEST”. Nothing particularly deep at all. Totally confirms Sasha’s opinion of the Acad.
”For DiCaprio to win an Oscar, he needs to do something altogether different. No, J. Edgar wasn’t that. No, Django wasn’t that.”
I gotta agree with Austin111. That idea that DiCaprio hasn’t played against type is ridiculous. Just look through his filmography. He’s done it with different looks, different accents, different ages, etc. For the record, his work in ”J. Edgar,” as the closeted FBI director, earned him a SAG nomination for Best Actor, a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actor in a Drama and a Critics’ Choice Award nomination. It’s the Oscars that blew it by overlooking him. And his work as the villain in ”Django Unchained” won him Supporting Actor from the National Board of Review and a Golden Globe nomination. But instead of recognizing DiCaprio’s playing against type, the Academy re-nominated Christoph Waltz and gave him a second Oscar for playing a variation of the same character from his first Quentin Tarantino movie.
McConaughey loses weight for ONE role in ”Dallas Buyers Club,” and somehow he’s the more transformative actor? This, from the guy who basically played the same shmoe in lotsa formulaic romantic comedies?
Meantime, it sounds like DiCaprio’s up for his next challenge: He’s looking for the right role to make his stage debut. Break a leg!
austin111 and WW,
I think Leo should’ve been nominated so many more times than he has been (esp Revolutionary Road and Departed), and certainly should have won by now. I’m not criticizing Leo. But I’m trying to articulate what has held him back. And I think you’re stretching it when you’re saying he’s played against type. Yes, he’s played many different kinds of men. But… just imagine if he chose to play someone TOTALLY foreign to Leo DiCaprio. Not a megalomaniacal Howard Hughes, J. Edgar, Calvin Candie, Jay Gatsby, Jordan Belfort, or a suffering lover Romeo, Jack, Frank Wheeler, etc. But something totally different. A mild-mannered shy weirdo from a Todd Solondz movie. A hobo. A slob with a comb-over. A SIDE ROLE! Imagine the reactions. I’m not saying he *should* do that in order to get Oscars, but I am saying that people who stray dramatically (Philip Seymour Hoffman, Christian Bale, Sean Penn, and with DBC, McConaughey, and I would also add Joaquin Phoenix though he hasn’t won an Oscar yet) tend to get more specific attention for these feats. The general fatigue some people have with Leo is that he’s always center-stage and he’s always larger-than-life and emotional. He’s a good enough actor that he can do other things. The Academy likes to reward people who’ve left their comfort zones. DiCaprio’s comfort zone was HUGE to begin with, so it seems like an unfair standard to set to him… but also, he can try other things… and he will win Oscars.
I’m still picking McConaughey, though…
1. in a vacuum, McC’s performance in Dallas Buyers Club wasn’t as good as Leo’s in Wolf Of Wall Street
2. …that said, it’s understood that McConaughey’s likely Oscar win isn’t strictly for DBC but rather as kind of a cumulative award for his career-transformative work over the last few years (Mud, Bernie, Magic Mike, Lincoln Lawyer, Killer Joe, his cameo in Wolf Of Wall Street and even his ongoing brilliance on True Detective)
3. this is a good argument for McConaughey…except for the fact that if we’re playing the “career achievement” card, then Leo is obviously more overdue and has a more distinguished series of roles that stretches back for over 20 years, not just since 2011.
The issue for Leo, however, is that I think people are only just starting to realize just how good he’s been over the last two-plus decades and that he’s overdue for an Oscar. That realization might be dawning on people too late for him to win this year, but his next big role could well finally net him his Academy Award. I would be ecstatic to see him play the lead in Devil In The White City, that book was awesome and I’m drooling over what someone like a Scorsese would do with it.
austin111: please take a deep breath and calm down, my friend – and then read my comment again. I did not say that diCaprio has never played “against type”, my point was that his best shot at an Oscar will come when he does it again; he certainly does not do it in WoWS. (Just as an example of what I mean with “against type”: try to imagine diCaprio in the Jonah Hill role instead, if he had pulled that off only halfway convincingly he would have had the Oscar in the bag…)
Honestly, situation is like this:
If The Wolf of Wall Street surprises and takes ANY Oscar, it’ll be Leo.
Leo has guaranteed himself, he’s probably winning, next time around.
Still, right now the situation is probably this one:
4. di Caprio
… and Bale is the only one it would be a shocker, if winning.
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