The Producers Guild pulled out the rug out from awards season by awarding two films their top prize. This has never happened in all of PGA’s fairly short history, which started all the way back in 1989, when Driving Miss Daisy won. That leaves Best Picture down to two, but perhaps three if you factor in the potential for a split vote year. Generally speaking, when Picture and Director split they do so in a way that can’t be predicted. The pundits continue to predict that 12 Years a Slave will win Picture and Alfonso Cuaron will win director. Last year’s odd dismissal of the director category means that now, it’s a free-for-all, stats-wise.
But last year still told us that the PGA and the DGA determined Best Picture for the sixth consecutive year, even without a director nomination. The last time the PGA and Oscar conflicted was in 2006, when Little Miss Sunshine beat The Departed. But those directors were not nominated for the Oscar so, back then, that made it almost impossible for the film to win Best Picture. Scorsese took the DGA and of course, took the Oscar.
We are flying blind this year because we’ve never seen anything like it. My fellow Oscar bloggers are convinced that Alfonso Cuaron will win the DGA, then win the Oscar, while either Gravity or 12 Years takes Best Picture. If Gravity or 12 Years had won the PGA without there being a tie, we might be seeing the setup for a Crash or Shakespeare in Love type situation — where the actors’ choice for ensemble ends up winning Best Picture in a surprise split. That keeps American Hustle still in the hunt, albeit as a dark horse.
Under a preferential ballot split votes are nearly impossible to predict, so we now must look to the DGA to point the way. The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) will also be voting on their winners, which sometimes can indicate a clue as to how Oscar might go. But the BAFTAs are held on February 15. Oscar voting deadline is February 25th. It seems like a long time from now, doesn’t it? A lot can happen in a month. Their tastes, however, might give us a better indication of their preference for film of the year.
The three Best Director contenders represent three very different artistic visions. Steve McQueen has directed two films so far, Hunger and Shame. He is one of the few black directors to be revered by film critics. His 12 Years a Slave was the most talked about film at Telluride and won the audience award in Toronto. It has also won the Golden Globe and the Critics Choice.
By contrast, Mexican born Alfonso Cuaron has been directing in Hollywood for years. His Children of Men was likely his most critically acclaimed, along with Y Tu Mama Tambien. He is part of the Mexican New Wave of cinema which also includes Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and Guillermo Del Toro.
12 Years a Slave is a film about our American past, the story of slavery told by a black filmmaker. We’re used to this story being told in the context of the white perspective, like Django Unchained or Gone with the Wind, Amistad, etc. Those films are often looked upon as white guilt being played out until we no longer feel guilty for what we’ve done. But McQueen doesn’t tell this story of slavery in a way we’ve seen before. To award him would be to erase 85 years of 99% white dominated filmmaking in the awards race. Plenty of Europeans have won the award, British, and now perhaps Mexican. But as yet, no black filmmaker has ever gotten this close.
This year, the Academy took major steps to diversify its membership and even hired, for the first time ever, a female black president. Their membership is seeking to broaden their voting to more than just reflecting the tastes of middled-aged white men. But they aren’t there yet. To find the winning film this year we have to once again spelunk into that demographic.
That taste, this year, seems impossible to judge. The actors appear to favor the cast of American Hustle. The producers just split between Gravity and 12 Years. Most are saying the DGA will go Cuaron’s way (I am continuing to predicting McQueen because I believe in miracles). That makes this Best Picture race, for the first time in a long while, too close to call.
Producers Guild | Best Picture
Won PGA | Won Oscar
2013
Gravity | Gravity |
12 Years a Slave | 12 Years a Slave |
American Hustle | American Hustle |
Captain Phillips | Captain Phillips |
Saving Mr. Banks | Philomena |
Nebraska | Nebraska |
Her | Her |
Dallas Buyers Clubs | Dallas Buyers Club |
Blue Jasmine | |
The Wolf of Wall Street | The Wolf of Wall Street |
2012
Argo+ | Argo+ |
Life of Pi | Life of Pi |
Lincoln | Lincoln |
Beasts of the Southern Wild | Beasts of the Southern Wild |
Les Miserables | Les Miserables |
Silver Linings Playbook | Silver Linings Playbook |
Django Unchained | Django Unchained |
Zero Dark Thirty | Zero Dark Thirty |
Moonrise Kingdom | Amour |
Skyfall |
2011
The Artist+ | The Artist+ |
Moneyball | Moneyball |
Bridesmaids | Toy Story 3 |
The Help | The Help |
Hugo | Hugo |
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo | |
War Horse | War Horse |
The Descendants | The Descendants |
The Ides of March | Extremely Loud |
Midnight in Paris | Midnight in Paris |
2010
The King’s Speech+ | The King’s Speech+ |
Inception | Inception |
Toy Story 3 | Toy Story 3 |
True Grit | True Grit |
127 Hours | 127 Hours |
The Kids Are All Right | The Kids Are All Right |
Black Swan | Black Swan |
The Social Network | The Social Network |
The Fighter | The Fighter |
The Town | A Serious Man |
2010
The Hurt Locker+ | The Hurt Locker+ |
Avatar | Avatar |
An Education | An Education |
District 9 | District 9 |
Inglourious Basterds | Inglourious Basterds |
Invictus | Invictus |
Precious | Precious |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air |
Up | Up |
Star Trek | The Blind Side |
2008
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon |
Milk | Milk |
The Dark Knight | The Reader |
Slumdog Millionaire+ | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button |
2007
There Will Be Blood | There Will Be Blood |
Juno | Juno |
Diving Bell and Butterfly | Atonement |
No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men |
Michael Clayton | Michael Clayton |
2006
Babel | Babel |
The Departed | The Departed |
Dreamgirls | Letters from Iwo Jima |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine |
The Queen | The Queen |
2005
Crash | Crash |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain |
Capote | Capote |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night, and Good Luck |
Walk the Line | Munich |
2004
Finding Neverland | Finding Neverland |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby |
The Aviator | The Aviator |
Sideways | Sideways |
The Incredibles | Ray |
2003
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit |
Mystic River | Mystic River |
Master and Commander | Master and Commander |
ROTK | ROTK |
The Last Samurai | Lost in Translation |
Cold Mountain |
2002
Adaptation | The Pianist |
Chicago | Chicago |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York |
Lord of the Rings: Two Towers | Two Towers |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | The Hours |
Road to Perdition |
2001
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind |
The Lord of the Rings | The Lord of the Rings |
Harry Potter | Gosford Park |
Moulin Rouge | Moulin Rouge |
Shrek | In the Bedroom |
2000
Gladiator | Gladiator |
Almost Famous | Traffic |
Erin Brockovich* | Erin Brockovich |
Billy Elliot | Chocolat |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon |
1999
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules |
American Beauty | American Beauty |
The Insider | The Insider |
Being John Malkovich | The Green Mile |
The Hurricane | The Sixth Sense |
1998
Life Is Beautiful | Life Is Beautiful |
Shakespeare In Love | Shakespeare In Love |
Gods and Monsters | The Thin Red Line |
Waking Ned Devine | Elizabeth |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan |
1997
Titanic | Titanic |
Amistad | The Full Monty |
L. A. Confidential | L. A. Confidential |
As Good As It Gets | As Good as it Gets |
for Good Will Hunting | Good Will Hunting |
1996
Fargo | Fargo |
Shine | Shine |
Hamlet | Secrets & Lies |
The People vs. Larry Flynt | Jerry Maguire |
The English Patient | The English Patient |
1995
Leaving Las Vegas | Babe |
Dead Man Walking | Braveheart |
Apollo 13 | Apollo 13 |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility |
Il Postino | Il Postino |
The Bridges of Madison County | |
The American President |
1994
EXACT MATCH
Four Weddings and a Funeral | Four Weddings and a Funeral |
Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump |
Quiz Show | Quiz Show |
Pulp Fiction | Pulp Fiction |
The Shawshank Redemption | The Shawshank Redemption |
1993
EXACT MATCH
The Fugitive | The Fugitive |
Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List |
The Remains Of the Day | The Remains Of the Day |
The Piano | The Piano |
In the Name Of the Father | In the Name Of the Father |
1992
A Few Good Men | A Few Good Men |
The Crying Game | The Crying Game |
Unforgiven | Unforgiven |
Scent Of a Woman | Scent Of a Woman |
Howards End | Howards End |
1991
The Silence Of the Lambs |
The Silence Of the Lambs |
1990
Dances With Wolves | Dances With Wolves |
1989
Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy |
I just wanted to make a comment that you need to fix two of the charts. A Serious Man was nominated for the Oscar in 2009, not 2010. For 2010, take out A Serious Man and put in Winter’s Bone.
Then for 2009, take out Invictus and put in A Serious Man.
Talking to AMPAS members and there’s a lot of buzz for NEBRASKA. This GRAVITY and 12 YEARS A SLAVE debate going on here (and in the press) has most of them shaking their heads. It’s funny listening to them laugh at everyone.
“I don’t think so , the bookies do , but they COULD be wrong …the EDITORS at GOLD DERBY have GRAVITY as the favorite …..Daniel Montgomery is really impressed with 12 YAS and clearly wants it to win but he has in second place to GRAVITY , and this is even before it wins DGA”
OK, OK, not EVERYBODY… But those you mentioned are obviously a minority right now. It might change after the DGA, even though it wouldn’t make sense, since Cuaron is considered a near-lock. And, besides, with the Editors at Gold Derby it’s 4-3 between Gravity and 12 Years, so nowhere near a lock.
Again, I’m not bothered by him saying Gravity is the favorite. Saying that is reasonable, even though I, personally, disagree. It bothers me that he thinks he can prove 12 Years is out (or almost out) of the race if it loses the DGA, which he obviously can’t, and hasn’t.