The WGA (Saturday night) is going to differ from the Oscars this year, in all likelihood, because of the simple fact that many of the films up for the screenplay award were not eligible for the WGA. This is probably more applicable to original screenplay than adapted since Up in the Air is dominating in the adapted category across the board.
The last few years since Oscar had its date change there really hasn’t been time for reflection on any of the categories, but most especially screenplay. You’ll note from the charts below that the Oscars have matched up with the WGA for wins 100% in the last five years. The last really odd thing to ever happen to disrupt this process was American Splendor, which seemed to throw a major wrench in the Oscar works. Prior to that year, 2003, the WGA and Oscar match-ups were it and miss.
There are two ways this race can go. The first is that we will see nothing but upsets at the Oscars on March 7th. We might see totally different screenplay winners, for instance, than we’ve been seeing. The reason for this is that it isn’t down to five Best Pictures any more. There are ten now. And even though there are still only five director slots, there are still those extra five titles dangling out there. All of them, except Avatar and The Blind Side, have a screenplay nomination. That opens things up a bit more in terms of what films might win for Screenplay, especially since they are usually the consolation prize for the movie not winning Best Picture.
In an ordinary year you might look at a screenplay nod for A Serious Man and think, well, it didn’t make the Big Five so it can’t win the WGA or the Oscar for screenplay. That would be a good guess in any year prior to this one. Now you look at A Serious Man and you think, well, it did get a Best Picture nod. That ups its chances considerably.
Still, we don’t have any other year to compare with this one so we have to just go on what we know so far. Generally speaking, except for Bowling for Columbine, the screenplay winners for the WGA are usually the ones that are also nominated for the Oscar. That is almost always true about the guilds in general, especially the major guilds.
Since Inglourious Basterds, In the Loop, District 9, The Messenger, Up, and An Education were all ineligible for the WGA, things are bumped off the rails even more. It could mean that, for the first time in five years, there will be a mis-match in Original Screenplay.
If you believe that the Oscars are a three-film race between Avatar, The Hurt Locker and Inglourious Basterds, you are probably going to predict that Quentin Tarantino wins for screenplay. At this point, I don’t see how he can lose. Working in The Hurt Locker’s favor is its strength so far with the major guilds, which will be strengthened by a WGA win. That doesn’t mean it will then go on to win the Oscar, but it gives it a leg up where it didn’t have one before.¬† When Memento was all of the talk about town and it wasn’t eligible for the WGAs, it never recovered to then win the Oscar, even though everyone believed it should have. It lost to a Best Picture nominee, Gosford Park. But Inglourious Basterds is not Memento.¬† Basterds is a robust Best Picture contender that just the won the SAG ensemble. Again, I don’t see how it can lose.
Two things working against Tarantino – the first is that he’s already won in the screenplay category. The Academy likes to spread the wealth around. It does happen that writers win twice for the same category but it is rare, especially when their film isn’t going to win Best Picture. The second reason is that Inglourious Basterds is a revenge fantasy story. There are going to be a lot of older Academy members, who may or may not be Jewish, who just might not relate to this story. The Hurt Locker is “about something.” In fact, it is probably the only original screenplay that has a much broader social theme than the other four, except perhaps The Messenger. The Hurt Locker is a more serious movie than Basterds. It feels like the more “grown-up” story. And finally, the Hurt Locker’s Oscar win might be a consolation prize for Avatar winning Best Picture.
We’ll have to wait and see how the WGAs turn out but for now, I’m going with The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air for the WGAs and Inglourious Basterds and Up in the Air for the Oscar. I might change my mind later.
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
-Austin Film Critics
-Critics Choice
-Central Ohio Film Critics
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Online Film Critics
-San Diego Film Critics
-San Francisco Film Critics
-Toronto Film Critics
-Washington DC Area Film Critics
Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
-Boston Film Critics
-National Board of Review
-National Society of Film Critics
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
-Chicago Film Critics
-Nantucket Film Festival
Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Up
-Phoenix Film Critcs
Oren Moverman, Alessandro Camo The Messenger
-Berlin Film Festival
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Here is the Reitman/Turner collection so far:
-Austin Film Critics
-Chicago Film Critics
-Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
-Phoenix Film Society
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Los Angeles Film Critics
-National Board of the Review
-Southeastern Film Critics
-Toronto Film Critics
-Washington, DC Film Critics
-Broadcast Film Critics (Critics Choice)
-Golden Globe
-USC Scripter
Armando Iannucci, In the Loop
-British Independent Film Awards
-New York Film Critics
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9
Nick Hornby, An Education
won WGA | won Oscar
2009
2009 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Hurt Locker | The Hurt Locker |
A Serious Man | A Serious Man |
500 Days of Summer | Up |
The Hangover | The Messenger |
Avatar | Inglourious Basterds |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Up in the Air | Up in the Air |
Crazy Heart | In the Loop |
Star Trek | District 9 |
Precious | Precious |
Julie & Julia | An Education |
2008 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Milk | Milk* |
Burn After Reading | Frozen River |
The Visitor | Happy-Go-Lucky |
The Wrestler | In Bruges |
Vicky Cristina Barcelona | Wall-E |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Doubt | Doubt |
Frost/Nixon | Frost/Nixon* |
Benjamin Button | Benjamin Button* |
The Dark Knight | The Reader |
2007 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Diablo Cody, Juno* | Diablo Cody, Juno* |
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton | Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton* |
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages | Tamara Jenkins, The Savages |
Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl | Nancy Oliver, Lars and the Real Girl |
Judd Apatow, Knocked Up | Brad Bird, Ratatouille |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood | Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood* |
Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men | Joel, Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men+ |
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly | Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly |
Sean Penn, Into the Wild | Sarah Polley, Away from Her |
James Vanderbilt, Zodiac | Christopher Hampton Atonement* |
2006 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Babel | Babel* |
The Queen | The Queen * |
Stranger than Fiction | Letters from Iwo Jima* |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine * |
United 93 | Pan’s Labyrinth |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Departed | The Departed+ |
Thank You for Smoking | Notes on a Scandal |
Little Children | Little Children |
Borat | Borat |
Devil Wears Prada | Children of Men |
2005 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
40 Year Old Virgin | Syriana |
Crash+ | Crash+ |
Cinderella Man | Match Point |
Good Night, and Good Luck | Good Night * |
Squid and the Whale | Squid and the Whale |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Capote | Capote* |
Constant Gardener | Constant Gardener |
History of Violence | History of Violence |
Syriana | Munich* |
2004 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
The Aviator | The Aviator* |
Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Garden State | Vera Drake |
Hotel Rwanda | Hotel Rwanda |
Kinsey | The Incredibles |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Before Sunset | Before Sunset |
Mean Girls | Finding Neverland* |
Million Dollar Baby | Million Dollar Baby+ |
Sideways | Sideways* |
Motorcycle Diaries | Motorcycle Diaries |
2003 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bend it Like Beckham | The Barbarian Invasions |
Dirty Pretty Things | Dirty Pretty Things |
In America | In America |
Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
The Station Agent | Finding Nemo |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
American Splendor | American Splendor |
Cold Mountain | City of God |
ROTK | ROTK* |
Mystic River | Mystic River * |
Seabiscuit | Seabiscuit* |
2002 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Far From Heaven | Far From Heaven |
Gangs of New York | Gangs of New York* |
Antwone Fisher | Talk to Her |
My Big Fat Greek Wedding | Greek Wedding |
Bowling for Columbine | Y Tu Mama Tambien |
Chicago | Chicago+ |
The Hours | The Hours* |
About Schmidt | The Pianist* |
Adaptation | Adaptation |
About a Boy | About a Boy |
2001 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Gosford Park* | Gosford Park* |
The Man Who Wasn’t There | Amelie |
Monster’s Ball | Monster’s Ball |
Moulin Rouge | Memento |
The Royal Tenenbaums | The Royal Tenenbaums |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Black Hawk Down | Shrek |
Bridget Jones’s Diary | In the Bedroom* |
Ghost World | Ghost World |
The Fellowship of the Ring | Fellowship of the Ring* |
2000 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Erin Brockovich | Erin Brockovich* |
Almost Famous | Almost Famous |
Best In Show | Gladiator+ |
Billy Elliot | Billy Elliot |
You Can Count On Me | You Can Count On Me |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon | Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon* |
Chocolat | Chocolat* |
High Fidelity | O Brother Where Art Thou? |
Traffic | Traffic* |
Wonder Boys | Wonder Boys |
1999 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Being John Malkovich | Being John Malkovich |
Magnolia | Magnolia |
The Sixth Sense | The Sixth Sense* |
Three Kings | Topsy-Turvy |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
The Cider House Rules | The Cider House Rules* |
Election | Election |
The Insider | The Insider* |
October Sky | The Green Mile* |
The Talented Mr. Ripley | The Talented Mr. Ripley |
1998 | |
Original WGA | Oscars |
Bulworth | Bulworth |
The Opposite of Sex | Life Is Beautiful * |
Shakespeare In Love* | Shakespeare In Love+ |
Saving Private Ryan | Saving Private Ryan* |
The Truman Show | The Truman Show |
Adapted WGA | Oscars |
Gods and Monsters | Gods and Monsters |
A Civil Action | The Thin Red Line* |
Primary Colors | Primary Colors |
A Simple Plan | A Simple Plan |
Out Of Sight* | Out Of Sight |
WINNERS CHART
+Won Best Picture
*nominated for Best Pic
WGA | OSCAR
2008: Slumdog Millionaire | Slumdog Millionaire+ |
Milk | Milk* |
2007: No Country for Old Men | No Country for Old Men+ |
Juno | Juno* |
2006: The Departed | The Departed+ |
Little Miss Sunshine | Little Miss Sunshine* |
2005:Brokeback Mountain | Brokeback Mountain* |
Crash | Crash+ |
2004: Eternal Sunshine | Eternal Sunshine |
Sideways | Sideways* |
2003: Lost in Translation | Lost in Translation* |
American Splendor | Return of the King+ |
2002: The Hours* | The Pianist* |
Bowling for Columbine | Talk to Her |
2001: A Beautiful Mind | A Beautiful Mind+ |
Gosford Park | Gosford Park* |
2000: Traffic | Traffic* |
You Can Count on Me | Almost Famous |
1999: American Beauty | American Beauty+ |
Election | The Cider House Rules* |
1998:Shakespeare in Love | Shakespeare in Love+ |
Out of Sight | Gods and Monsters |
1997: L.A. Confidential | L.A. Confidential* |
As Good as it Gets | Good Will Hunting* |
1996: Sling Blade | Sling Blade |
Fargo | Fargo* |
1995: Braveheart | The Usual Suspects |
Sense and Sensibility | Sense and Sensibility* |
1994: Forrest Gump | Forrest Gump+ |
Four Weddings/Funeral | Pulp Fiction* |
1993: Schindler’s List | Schindler’s List+ |
The Piano | The Piano* |
1992: The Crying Game | The Crying Game * |
The Player | Howards End* |
1991: The Silence of the Lambs | The Silence of the Lambs+ |
Thelma and Louise | Thelma and Louise |
1990: Dances with Wolves | Dances with Wolves+ |
Avalon | Ghost* |
1989: Driving Miss Daisy | Driving Miss Daisy+ |
Crimes and Misdemeanors | Dead Poets Society* |
1988: Dangerous Liaisons | Dangerous Liaisons* |
Bull Durham | Rain Man+ |
1987: Roxanne | The Last Emperor+ |
Moonstruck | Moonstruck* |
1986: A Room with a View | A Room with a View* |
Hannah and Her Sisters | Hannah and her Sisters* |
1985: Witness | Witness* |
Prizzi’s Honor | Out of Africa+ |
1984: The Killing Fields | Amadeus+ |
Broadway Danny Rose | Places in the Heart* |
1983: Tender Mercies | Tender Mercies* |
Reuben, Reuben | Terms of Endearment+ |
1982: Missing | Missing* |
Tootsie | Gandhi+ |
1981: Reds | Chariots of Fire+ |
On Golden Pond | On Golden Pond * |
Rich and Famous | |
Arthur | |
1980:Ordinary People | Ordinary People+ |
Airplane, Private Benjamin | |
Melvin and Howard | Melvin and Howard |
1979: Kramer vs. Kramer | Kramer Vs. Kramer+ |
Breaking Away | Breaking Away* |
The China Syndrome, Being There | |
1978: Midnight Express | Midnight Express* |
Coming Home | Coming Home* |
Heaven Can Wait | |
Movie, Movie | |
1977: Annie Hall | Annie Hall+ |
Julia | Julia* |
The Turning Point, Oh, God | |
1976: All the President’s Men | All The President’s Men* |
Network | Network* |
Pink Panther Strikes Again | |
1975: One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest | One Flew over the Cuckoo’s Nest+ |
Dog Day Afternoon | Dog Day Afternoon* |
The Sunshine Boys | |
Shampoo | |
1974: Godfather Part II | Godfather Part II+ |
Chinatown | Chinatown* |
Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz | |
Blazing Saddles | |
1973: A Touch of Class | The Exorcist* |
Save the Tiger, Paper Moon | The Sting+ |
Serpico | |
1972: The Godfather | The Godfather+ |
The Candidate | The Candidate |
What’s Up, Doc? Cabaret | |
1971: The French Connection | The French Connection+ |
The Hospital | The Hospital |
Kotch; Sunday, Bloody, Sunday | |
1970: Patton | Patton+ |
M*A*S*H | M*A*S*H* |
I Never Sang for My Father, The Out-of Towners | |
1969: Midnight Cowboy | Midnight Cowboy+ |
Butch Cassidy | Butch Cassidy/Sundance Kid * |
Goodbye, Columbus; Bob, Ted, Carol and Alice | |
1968:Lion in Winter | The Lion in Winter* |
The Producers | The Producers |
Funny Girl, Odd Couple | |
1967: The Graduate | In the Heat of the Night+ |
Bonnie and Clyde | Guess Who’s Coming… * |
Thoroughly Modern Millie | |
1966: Who’s Afraid of Virginia Wolfe? | A Man for All Seasons+ |
The Russians are Coming | A Man and a Woman |
1965: A Thousand Clowns | Dr. Zhivago* |
The Sound of Music, The Pawnbroker | Darling* |
1964: Becket | Becket |
Dr. Strangelove, Mary Poppins | Father Goose |
1963: Hud | Tom Jones+ |
Lillies of the Field | How the West Was Won |
1962: The Kill a Mockingbird | To Kill a Mockingbird * |
That Touch of Mink, Music Man | Divorce Italian Style |
1961: the Hustler | Judgment at Nuremberg |
Breakfast at Tiffany’s, West Side Story | Splendor in the Grass |
1960: The Apartment | The Apartment+ |
Elmer Gantry | Elmer Gantry |
The Bells are Ringing | |
1959: The Diary of Anne Frank | Room at the Top * |
Some Like it Hot, Five Pennies | Pillow Talk |
1958: Gigi | Gigi+ |
The Defiant Ones | The Defiant Ones |
Me and the Colonel | |
1957: 12 Angry Men | Bridge on the River Kwai+ |
Love in the Afternoon | Designing Women |
Les Girls | |
1956: Around world/80 Days | Around world/80 Days+ |
The King and I | The red Balloon |
Friendly Persuasion | |
1955: Marty | Marty+ |
Mr. Roberts | Interrupted Melody |
Love Me/Leave Me | |
1954: On the Waterfront | On the Waterfront+ |
Sabrina, Seven Brides/Seven Bros. | The Country Girl |
1953: From Here to Eternity | From Here to Eternity+ |
Lili, Roman Holiday | Titanic |
1952: High Noon, The Quiet Man | Lavender Hill Mob |
Singing in the Rain | Bad and Beautiful |
1951: An American in Paris | An American in Paris+ |
A Place in the Sun | A Place in the Sun* |
Father’s Little Dividend | |
1950: All About Eve | All About Eve+ |
Sunset Boulevard | Sunset Boulevard * |
Broken Arrow, Annie Get Your Gun | |
1949: All the King’s Men | All the King’s Men+ |
A Letter to Three Wives, on the Town | Battleground* |
1958: The Snake Pit | Treasure of the Sierra Madre* |
Sitting Pretty, Easter Parade |