The DGA breakfast today where Alfonso Cuaron, the expected winner tonight, was a no show — he was celebrating his son’s birthday in Italy. He will be back for the ceremony this evening. All pundits are expecting Cuaron to win tonight (except me – I am the Lone Survivor predicting McQueen, being that I think 12 Years is winning Best Picture. Should Cuaron win tonight one must adjust to Gravity for Best Picture to win the whole thing). This poll is, then, futile. Groupthink is set in motion and nothing can deride it. The only time I was ever right and groupthink was wrong was that fateful year Tom Hooper won the DGA when everyone was predicting Fincher. But to me, that year, like this year, wasn’t going to split. What you predict for Best Picture you ought to predict for Best Director. But perhaps this will be the year it’s all proven wrong.
My No Guts prediction is David O. Russell, American Hustle, which will then take the whole thing.