And a Little on that Preferential Ballot Situation

Posted by Sasha Stone on Feb 22, 2011 in 83rd Oscar Ceremony, AWARDS CHATTER | 0 comments

We just don’t know how this race will turn out – we all assume The King’s Speech has it. But you know, something always brings me back to the ten picture race back before 1943 and those two examples — Song of Bernadette with 12 vs. Casablanca with 8, and Mrs. Miniver, which had no challenger, 12 nominations and won. Two different scenarios, two different outcomes.

Gautam Dutta has it kind of worked out, just some food for thought:

I’ve studied and advocated for ranked choice voting systems for years. Here is my educated guess of how this race breaks down — and how the use of ranked choice voting will shape the result.

Although King’s Speech probably heads into the polls as the top vote getter, it will fall short of a majority of first place votes (50 percent plus 1) in a crowded field.
So Best Picture will come down to whether King’s Speech or Social Network get enough second-choice rankings to push either over 50 percent.

Here’s my take on which of these Oscar favorites would be the second choice of the other seven nominees:

The King’s Speech - second choice of fans of Toy Story 3, 127 Hours and The Fighter
The Social Network – second choice of fans of Inception and The Kids Are All Right
Black Swan - second choice of fans of True Grit and Winter’s Bone

Based on this lineup, I would give King’s Speech the edge. It is the sort of contestant built for a ranked choice contest, in that it offers something for everyone, and is likely to pile up second-choice and third-choice rankings.

That being said, Social Network is far from being out of the running. Without Ranked Choice Voting, Social Network would not have stood a chance against King’s Speech. But since a film must now garner majority support via second and perhaps third choice rankings, it now has a viable shot at winning — if it can attract enough of those votes. Unlike Black Swan, hardly anyone had an unkind word for this Facebook tale.

Is Anne Hathaway the New Billy Crystal?

Posted by Sasha Stone on Feb 21, 2011 in 83rd Oscar Ceremony | 0 comments

She’s kind of got this thing down. James Franco is just along for the ride, Brian Dunkleman style.

The Brands to hit the Kodak

Posted by Sasha Stone on Feb 21, 2011 in 83rd Oscar Ceremony | 0 comments

I’m really hoping Russell Brand gives out the award for Best Picture. He’s been announced as the latest presenter, along with Scarlett Johansson (will she bring Sean Penn?)

The King's Speech — Sweep or Split?

Posted by Sasha Stone on Feb 19, 2011 in 83rd Oscar Ceremony, The King's Speech | 0 comments

Our friend Marshall has once again done the research and built a chart.  Films with 12 nominations win, on average, six Oscars.  Gladiator is the only one that went into the race with 12, lost Director and won only 5 Oscars.  It probably would have won 6 if it had won Director.

So, for the King’s Speech, you are probably looking at: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actor, then maybe Supporting Actor (or Actress), and then any tech nod to get to just six. ¬†It should have no problem there, whether it’s Score or Art Direction or Costume or Cinematography or all of the above. ¬†The point here is that many predictors are only guessing on 3 wins for The King’s Speech.

Gone Baby Gone – No Montages, No Group Presenters

Posted by Sasha Stone on Feb 18, 2011 in 83rd Oscar Ceremony | 4 comments

In hopes of trimming down the Big Show, the AMPAS has decided to nix the best part of the show, the movie montages (really, to me, the only reason to watch) and the popular decision to have multiple best actor and actress presenters. No one cares this year because it’s a done deal:

Gone will be the movie montages — like last year‚Äôs salute to horror movies — that often contribute to the broadcast‚Äôs unwieldy running time. While there will be film clips from the ten best picture nominees and brief filmed introductions to different segments of the show, ‚ÄúWithin the body of the show, we are not doing any film montage sequences,‚Äù Cohen tells The Hollywood Reporter in an interview.

Gone too will be the relatively new tradition, established just two years ago, of using five presenters to offer tribute testimonials about each of the best actor and actress nominees. “We’re not going to do that this year,” Cohen says. “What we did love about it was that it was a moment where each of the nominees really gets their due. [But] we found a version of that, without using the five people on stage, from the 1970 Oscars, and we stole it.”

The Cunning Linguist Crowd?

Posted by Sasha Stone on Feb 18, 2011 in 83rd Oscar Ceremony | 0 comments

The funniest joke in this for me was Franco saying “nobody watches the Producers Guild.” ¬†”Good luck with your 14 classes” is also funny.