The SAG awards will be held SATURDAY, JANUARY 18 8ET/5PT.
First up, No Guts, No Glory – the only significant prediction was Robert Redford missing out on a nod, so the winners for that contest are:
(please send an email to awards daily at gmail dot com for prize info)
For the SAG contest, with 22 as the high score:
And the Golden Globes:
The winner of the Golden Globes with the highest score of 38:
The runners-up with 37:
With the extra credit of screenplay, the winners, with 40:
Congratulations to all of the smarty-pants.
There wasn’t anyone who predicted American Hustle to win Best Picture at the New York Film Critics. So they really did pull a coup to the awards community. Here are those who scored the highest, with 6:
And these with 5:
Dino De Fazio
And for the National Board of Review, only a two high scorers:
Thanks for playing! Next up, Screen Actors Guild and the Golden Globes.
In just a few days, the New York Film Critics will announce first (Tuesday, December 3) and a day after that, the National Board of Review (Dec. 4). New York recently pushed their date to be before the National Board of Review and yes, that means they’re FIRST, but it also means that they, like the NBR, can maybe push a contender into the race but they’re so early in the race that they often don’t paint an accurate picture of where the buzz is going to go. Then on Dec. 8, Los Angeles will come along and their picks will react to what’s already been announced.
The critics groups tend to influence Best Picture, Director, Best Actor and Best Actress most. The rest of the categories, especially documentary and animated feature, tend to lessen in terms of impact. But really, we’re following Best Picture when we look at these early awards.
First up, the New York Film Critics – what will they choose? Last year it was Zero Dark Thirty (nominated) for Best Picture, Daniel Day-Lewis (won Oscar) for Actor, Rachel Weisz for Deep Blue Sea (not nominated for the Oscar). Year before it was The Artist (won Best Picture), Streep for the Iron Lady (who won the Oscar), and Brad Pitt for Moneyball (nominated). Year before that, The Social Network (nominated), Annette Bening (nominated), and Colin Firth (won Oscar). Since it’s the first word on the critics awards, their choice will have a bigger impact. But that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re picking the winner or starting what will end up being a consensus. Picking The Artist was less meaningful than picking Streep for the Iron Lady, for instance. The Artist won everything but Streep had a formidable challenger in frontrunner Viola Davis.
The National Board of Review is a little less formal than the New York Film Critics. They are better at pushing in an unlikely contender than they are confirming or starting the consensus. They rarely go with the flow. They did agree with New York in picking Zero Dark Thirty, which set that film up early as the one to beat. But the year before they went with Hugo rather than The Artist.
Our predictions after the jump.
The Martin Scorsese quiz is just about done over at Kumbaya where the prize is a whole year’s subscription to Warner Archive Instant. Not that many people have entered so your chances at winning are really good. All you have to do is answer one – JUST ONE – of the Martin Scorsese quizzes in the comments, share it on Facebook or Twitter and you’re entered. The questions range from easy to hard. Give it a shot!
The latest quiz question no one has yet answered – identify the film with the Scorsese cameo:
1. Crazed stalker in the back of a cab who asks “Do you know who lives up there?”
2. Photographer (hint: Paris)
3. TV director (hint: late night TV).
Don’t forget to share your answers to facebook or twitter.
We have a winner for our Oscar contest and recipient of all nine DVD titles. Congratulations to Gianna Grabowski for correctly predicting 23 out of 24 categories, missing only Best Actress.
The runners-up, with 22/24, who will receive one DVD or blu-ray of the Oscar nominated films:
Please contact us to redeem your prize.
And those who got the highest of our three highest predictors on our chart, Anthony Breznican, Scott Feinberg and Ed Douglas, with 21/24, after the cut. Congratulations everyone!
For the winner of our Oscar contest, all nine of the BP nominees (or nine of any Oscar nominated movie, whether in BP or not).
Runners-up – one dvd copy.
I will have to start making these contests much harder.
The winners of the DGA, ACE, WGA and CAS after the cut.
This upcoming weekend will be the Writers Guild, the Editors Guild, the Cinema Audio Society and the Motion Picture Sound Editing. At this point, we’re just going through the motions — it’s all over but the enthusiastic speech at the end.
I expect that Argo will win the Writers Guild award as the ballots were turned in the same time as the PGA and SAG, just as the gasoline hit the flame and Argo became the unstoppable frontrunner. I also expect (it’s a no-brainer actually) Argo to win the Ace Eddie. There probably isn’t an easier prediction to make this year.
Finally, Argo ISN’T nominated for the Cinema Audio Society award so perhaps voters can do a write-in vote? The nominees are Les Mis, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty, Lincoln and The Hobbit. Probably Les Miserables wins that, right? Or Skyfall.
We have a contest! Test your abilities predicting all three of these after the cut:
The two highest scoring participants, with 18 out of 21:
Kjartan Atli Óskarsson
And with 17 out of 21:
José R. Ortega
Winners of the SAG awards predictions, just the film categories:
Jian Hui Lee
Shin the Japanese Viewer
More after the jump.
We will be doing a longer preview for the SAG Awards closer to the event but our contest is open for business. The two big awards shows coming up, the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild should give us an idea of how things will go.
We are an Oscar race without a clear frontrunner right now.
It seems like it’s down to these three films: Lincoln, Argo and Silver Linings Playbook. Argo is missing a crucial Best Director nomination and Silver Linings Playbook is missing a DGA nomination. But because Silver Linings has an Oscar nod for director and four acting nominations it has a very good chance to win. I still think we can’t totally count out Les Miserables, particularly for SAG, and Zero Dark Thirty.
The Producers Guild are about 4,700 and the vote with ten contenders using a preferential ballot. The SAG award voters are a much larger group, 100K of them and they use a weighted ballot.
Either way, by the end of next weekend the buzz will likely point in one direction or another.
It’s hard to believe that it will all come down to this. The same rules apply – you may enter more than once but we’ll always keep your most recent entry. CONTEST PAGE IS OPEN.
Here are some key upcoming dates:
January 24-PGA ballot deadline
January 25-PGA awards, WGA ballot deadline
January 28-SAG awards
February 1-DGA ballot deadline
February 2-DGA awards
February 8-AMPAS final ballots go out
February 19–AMPAS final ballots in
February 24–The Oscars, baby, the Oscars
The Critics Choice awards are going to be this Thursday night, the same day as Oscar nominations. We have a contest for you to enter your predictions. You can also do that over at Gold Derby. Since they’re coming out after Oscar ballots have been turned in, and occurring on the same day as the Oscar nominations, what Oscar voters do will no effect on what the BFCA do. For instance, they could award Tom Hooper Best Director and Tom Hooper might not even get an Oscar nomination. That sort of thing. 2012 is just that kind of year. Someone toppled the house of cards and we have no idea where anything is going to land.
But you can enter our contest if you’d like. Here are my rough predictions – but I must stipulate, figuring out what the BFCA is going to do is near impossible.
It wasn’t the hardest PGA to predict — most contest entries had 9 out of 10. But there were some who got a perfect score of 10! And they were:
Okay, AwardsDaily readers, the contest is up and running. Please email with any glitches. For the first time in forever the Oscar nominations are just a week away, and will be announced BEFORE the Golden Globes. If you’ve been following along all year, and if I know you readers you are already way ahead of the game, this should be a cake walk. Well, it’s never easy predicting those pesky song categories!
Awards Daily’s Predict the Producers Guild contest now open for business!
Back in 1994 and before that, the Producers Guild nominees matched the Oscar Best Picture five fairly well. But since 1995 and onward, there has been at least one mismatch. Usually the end of December would represent the earlier part of the race but this year everything is smushed together even more tightly than it has been in the past. That would suggest that Oscar ballots would reflect the same temperature as earlier awards groups, like perhaps, the BFCA, or the NBR, or even the Globes.
This is the first year ever that most of the Oscar ballots will be turned in before the Producers Guild announces its ten nominees (January 3). There are a few groups that offer up a top ten every year (minus various critics groups) and those would be the National Board of Review, the Broadcast Film Critics (or Critics Choice), the American Film Institute and the Producers Guild. In looking them over all together there are usually a strong four, or three, or five that make it all the way through to the end. And not every year can be measured the same way.
We’re still running our Golden Globes contest, so don’t forget to enter before Wednesday’s nominees.
The winner of the LA Film Critics contest is Philip McMahon, with a whopping seven right, including Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor.
Runners-up with 6: Adam Noble and Simone Fabriziani
Winner of the NBR top ten was Ignacio Urrutia with a whopping 9 right.
Runners-up with 7 right Randall David Cook, John Ariel Rojas, Lynn Ferreira, Azahar Mohamad Salleh, Easky Wang, Oscar Valdez, Pawin Singhathong, Alan Wong
Thanks for playing!