The Producers Guild – Prediction and No Guts, No Glory

I assume everyone is predicting The Artist to win here, and then win the DGA and then maybe win the SAG ensemble, with some serious heat from The Help, but if you had to choose a film that might upset, which one do you choose?

Here are a few things to note.  The first, for the past two years the Oscar race has seemed to have one film in mind for Best Picture until another one takes its place at the Producers Guild and from thence, to Oscar.  In both of these years, we had ten Best Picture nominees in the race.  The Producers Guild went to ten and then did preferential voting, just as the Academy did.  The only truly horrifying step in the race last year was how the DGA shook out.  One expected, with such visionary directors in the race, that the DGA would have decided to honor one of them.  Instead, it chose the most conventionally made, traditional “Oscar movie” – even when almost everyone (except me) thought that Fincher would win the DGA.

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MPSE Sound Editors Nominees

The 2012 Golden Reel Award nominees in the categories Feature Films, Television and Others are as follows:

FEATURE FILMS CATEGORY

BEST SOUND EDITING: SOUND EFFECTS AND FOLEY IN A FEATURE FILM

  • Drive
  • Fast Five
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol
  • Rise of the Planet of the Apes
  • Super 8
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • War Horse

BEST SOUND EDITING: MUSIC IN A FEATURE FILM

  • Drive
  • The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
  • Hop
  • Hugo
  • Priest
  • Super 8
  • Transformers: Dark of the Moon
  • The Tree of Life

(many more categories after the cut)

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CAS Nominees announced!

The Cinema Audio Society announces the nominees for the 48th Annual CAS Awards for Outstanding Achievement in Sound Mixing for 2011 in four categories.

Motion Pictures:

  • Hanna
  • Hugo
  • Moneyball
  • Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tide
  • Super 8
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The Producers Guild Preview

 

It is always this time of year when you know for sure whether a film is going to finish the race as the “winner” or not. The Producers Guild has, for the last two years anyway, been the turning point. The Globes come and go and one year it was Avatar and the next year it was The Social Network. Then the Producers Guild honored The Hurt Locker, and the Producers Guild honored The King’s Speech and such was the signal that it was all over but the shouting. It was especially exciting when The Hurt Locker won because everyone naturally assumed that the movie that made the most money in the race (Avatar) would beat the movie that made the least (The Hurt Locker). The Hurt Locker had been winning on the strength of Kathryn Bigelow’s underdog status, being a woman, and the simple fact that she had the better movie. But The King’s Speech beating The Social Network, Black Swan, Inception, The Fighter and True Grit? There was something else at play. There was profit, sure, but there was also low cost and there was also those swollen hearts. Everybody felt sorry for the stuttering King who couldn’t give a speech, his friendship with his teacher, and on and on and on it went. Masterpiece Theater for the ages. The King’s Speech wasn’t a bad film. It was a very very good film. It just wasn’t better than the best film. But hey, Rocky was a great film too. It just wasn’t better than Network. It just wasn’t better than Taxi Driver. It just wasn’t better than All the President’s Men. Time helped us to see that year more clearly but at the time, there was no stopping Rocky. Rocky and The King’s Speech are very similar in that way. You’re always going to find people who respond, still, to both movies. That the greater movies were nominated alongside them also speaks well of the Academy for noticing at all.

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Ace Eddie Nominees!

NOMINEES FOR 62nd ANNUAL ACE EDDIE AWARDS

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (DRAMATIC):

The Descendants
Kevin Tent, A.C.E.

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Angus Wall, A.C.E. & Kirk Baxter, A.C.E.

Hugo
Thelma Schoonmaker, A.C.E.

Moneyball
Christopher Tellefsen, A.C.E.

War Horse
Michael Kahn, A.C.E.

 

BEST EDITED FEATURE FILM (COMEDY OR MUSICAL):

The Artist
Anne-Sophie Bion & Michel Hazanavicius

Bridesmaids
William Kerr & Michael L. Sale

Midnight in Paris
Alisa Lepselter

My Week with Marilyn
Adam Recht

Young Adult
Dana E. Glauberman, A.C.E.

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DGA Contest Winners, and Dragon Tattoo Opening Credit Sequence

Thanks to HE for posting this — at last, online:

And here are the winners of the DGA prediction contest. All of them got the all five directors correctly! After the jump.

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DGA Nominations – Fincher in!


WOODY ALLEN
Midnight in Paris
(Sony Pictures Classics)

DAVID FINCHER
The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo
(Columbia Pictures, Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer Pictures)

MICHEL HAZANAVICIUS
The Artist
(The Weinstein Company)

ALEXANDER PAYNE
The Descendants
(Fox Searchlight Pictures)

MARTIN SCORSESE
Hugo
(Paramount Pictures)

WOW!

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DGA Preview: Why I Think Tate Taylor Will Be Nominated

 

It occurred to me moments ago that Tate Taylor has every reason to, in fact, be nominated for the DGA when they are announced next week. [I didn't know it because I never saw his Tweet but In Contention's Kris Tapley came to this conclusion yesterday but recently posted his predictions to include Tate Taylor.  Other than the two of us, though, most people would consider this an upset if it came to pass].

In looking back over Oscar history since the PGA began only one film has ever gotten the PGA, the SAG ensemble and Best Picture and not gotten a DGA nod and that was Lasse Hallstrom for The Cider House Rules.  That film was neck and neck with Spike Jonze’s Being John Malkovich.  In the end, both directors got Oscar noms but only Jonze got the DGA.  This year, there wouldn’t have been a problem putting both films in the Best Pic category.  The way voting is allows for both.  But we’re still looking at which movie is the Spike Jonze film and which is the Hallstrom. If The Help is the Cider House Rules (I think it’s a lot stronger than that) then another film might take that DGA slot.

At any rate, you can look at the charts below.  But I think there is no reason to not predict Tate Taylor other than the fact that he isn’t well known enough.  The Help is beloved across the board.  It made upwards of $160 million and will be a very strong Best Picture contender.  If it was anyone but an unknown like Taylor there wouldn’t even be a discussion.

The way I look at it is this — the locks are: Martin Scorsese, Hugo – the film I believe to be 2011′s best and one of Scorsese’s best.
Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist – a great achievement and delightful experience
Alexander Payne, The Descendants – the height of his brilliant career so far

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WGA Nominations!

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

50/50, Written by Will Reiser; Summit Entertainment
Bridesmaids, Written by Annie Mumolo & Kristen Wiig; Universal Studios
Midnight in Paris, Written by Woody Allen; Sony Pictures Classics
Win Win, Screenplay by Tom McCarthy; Story by Tom McCarthy & Joe Tiboni; Fox Searchlight
Young Adult, Written by Diablo Cody; Paramount Pictures

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Descendants, Screenplay by Alexander Payne and Nat Faxon & Jim Rash; Based on the novel by Kaui Hart Hemming; Fox Searchlight
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian; Based on the novel by Stieg Larsson, originally published by Norstedts; Columbia Pictures
The Help, Screenplay by Tate Taylor; Based on the novel by Kathryn Stockett; DreamWorks Pictures
Hugo, Screenplay by John Logan; Based on the book The Invention of Hugo Cabret by Brian Selznick; Paramount Pictures
Moneyball, Screenplay by Steven Zaillian and Aaron Sorkin; Story by Stan Chervin; Based on the book by Michael Lewis; Columbia Pictures

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WGA Predictions

The WGA will announce some time tomorrow.  And the Scripter too.

The following scripts are ineligible: The Artist, Shame, Martha Macy, Albert Nobbs, Drive, Margin Call, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, The Iron Lady and My Week with Marilyn all ineligible. That happens every year and it is the main reason you don’t have a perfect match-up with Oscar.  At any rate, my predictions – Ryan will add his a bit later – Kris Tapley’s are here.

Original
Midnight in Paris
50/50
Bridesmaids
Rampart (just gonna go for it)
Super 8
Alt. Tree of Life, Young Adult

Adapted:
The Descendants
Moneyball
The Help
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Alt: The Ides of March, War Horse

Please add yours here if you feel like – we’re not running a contest.

Scripter Predictions:
Hugo
The Descendants
The Help
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
War Horse

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The WGA and Scripter Preview

The Writers Guild will announce their nominees this Thursday, along with the USC Scripter awards.

The screenplay categories are a lynchpin to see which handful of films the guilds will begin to support.  While the WGA isn’t really a make or break, particularly since there are always those screenplays that don’t qualify for them, it can help in terms of sussing out what films can WIN. Unless your script is not eligible, like the The King’s Speech, failure to earn a WGA nomination is not a good thing.   Even Avatar got a WGA nod the year it was up for the award. That it then didn’t get a screenplay nod from AMPAS was a clear indicator that it could not win Best Picture.  Your Best Picture winner, in truth, needs support from the writers, the directors and the actors primarily.  From there, the below the line support can help a lot.  But a movie like The King’s Speech, with a whopping 12 nominations, could lose everything else and still win Screenplay, Director, Actor and Picture.

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2012 Producers Guild Nominees!

THE ARTIST
Producer: Thomas Langmann

BRIDESMAIDS
Producers: Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Clayton Townsend

THE DESCENDANTS
Producers: Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor

THE GIRL WITH THE DRAGON TATTOO
Producers: Ceán Chaffin, Scott Rudin

THE HELP
Producers: Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus, Brunson Green

HUGO
Producers: Graham King, Martin Scorsese

THE IDES OF MARCH
Producers: George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Brian Oliver

MIDNIGHT IN PARIS
Producers: Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum

MONEYBALL
Producers: Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt

WAR HORSE
Producers: Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg

The Producers Guild of America Producer of the Year Award in Animated Theatrical Motion Pictures:

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Producers Guild Predictions and No Guts, No Glory

Our Producers Guild prediction contest closes tomorrow AM.  We’ll be sending a $25 online Amazon gift card to the lucky winner.  You can still enter.  Feel free to put your No Guts, No Glory pics here – please no more than three choices.

Meanwhile, here are my predictions for the PGA ten. Ryan’s follow [shortly], and I’ve also asked one of my Oscar Poker podcast partner Boxoffice.com‘s Phil Contrino for his.

Best Picture
The Artist
The Help
The Descendants
Moneyball
Midnight in Paris
War Horse
Hugo
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows
Alt. Tree of Life
Also possible: Bridesmaids

The Producers could wind up choosing The Ides of March or J. Edgar, too, come to that. I am not certain at all of these predictions. In fact, I feel like it’s a wide open Oscar year in every respect, up to and including the potential winner.

My No Guts, No Glory pic for Best Picture would be Rise of the Planet of the Apes!  I am going to pass on animated this year, but Phil has elected to include his, after the cut.

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Producers Guild Preview and Predictions Contest

Fixed: The contest form now allows you to choose more than one option on the doc and animated categories.

Since we got our new form to generate contests, making them is going to be a lot easier. Therefore, for the second time this week we’re introducing another contest. Predict the PGAs! (If you haven’t yet entered our Golden Globes contest, it’s here.)

A quick check on awards calendar tells us that the Producers Guild will announce January 3rd, and the Writers Guild and Scripter awards will announce January 5th. The following Monday, January 9th the Directors Guild will announce, and the Monday after that, the Eddies. By then, we should have our Oscar picture mostly taking shape.

We will know if we Oscar pundits were very right or very wrong. We will know if the critics will have any impact at all this year. And we will know if the industry is embracing certain titles – like Tree of Life, or Drive, or Harry Potter or Rise of the Planet of the Apes. None of these are expected to hit in the major categories so if they start showing up that could signal possible presence at the AMPAS.

And of course, our scary scary Oscar nominations drop bright and early Tuesday morning January 24th. Are you ready? I’m only barely ready.

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Oscar Watch – The SAG Rule

 

Right after the SAG noms, EW’s Dave Karger, who has been predicting The Artist to win since very early in the season, tweeted out “bad news for Hugo – no film in 15 years has won Best Picture without a SAG nomination.”   That’s some good research, there.  And indeed, you have to go back to Braveheart to find a film that won Best Picture without a SAG nom. Almost all of them, even if they didn’t have individual acting nods, had an ensemble nod at least.

By my count, then, and according to Karger’s rule, the only films that can win are: The Artist, Moneyball, The Descendants and The Help (always comes down to those) – I guess Midnight in Paris if you want to stretch it.  However, the thing to remember is that rules are meant to be broken. I would never simply resign to this truth.  After all, The Social Network’s loss last year broke an even longer tradition of critics awards aligning and a Best Picture not winning.  Kathryn Bigelow’s win broke 82 years of Oscar history. Imagine if someone had said “no woman has won Best Director in 82 years.” Was that going to stop me or you from believing that Bigelow could win? No.

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