Producers Guild Preview and Predictions Contest
Fixed: The contest form now allows you to choose more than one option on the doc and animated categories.
Since we got our new form to generate contests, making them is going to be a lot easier. Therefore, for the second time this week we’re introducing another contest. Predict the PGAs! (If you haven’t yet entered our Golden Globes contest, it’s here.)
A quick check on awards calendar tells us that the Producers Guild will announce January 3rd, and the Writers Guild and Scripter awards will announce January 5th. The following Monday, January 9th the Directors Guild will announce, and the Monday after that, the Eddies. By then, we should have our Oscar picture mostly taking shape.
We will know if we Oscar pundits were very right or very wrong. We will know if the critics will have any impact at all this year. And we will know if the industry is embracing certain titles – like Tree of Life, or Drive, or Harry Potter or Rise of the Planet of the Apes. None of these are expected to hit in the major categories so if they start showing up that could signal possible presence at the AMPAS.
And of course, our scary scary Oscar nominations drop bright and early Tuesday morning January 24th. Are you ready? I’m only barely ready.
Read MoreOscar Watch – The SAG Rule
Right after the SAG noms, EW’s Dave Karger, who has been predicting The Artist to win since very early in the season, tweeted out “bad news for Hugo – no film in 15 years has won Best Picture without a SAG nomination.” That’s some good research, there. And indeed, you have to go back to Braveheart to find a film that won Best Picture without a SAG nom. Almost all of them, even if they didn’t have individual acting nods, had an ensemble nod at least.
By my count, then, and according to Karger’s rule, the only films that can win are: The Artist, Moneyball, The Descendants and The Help (always comes down to those) – I guess Midnight in Paris if you want to stretch it. However, the thing to remember is that rules are meant to be broken. I would never simply resign to this truth. After all, The Social Network’s loss last year broke an even longer tradition of critics awards aligning and a Best Picture not winning. Kathryn Bigelow’s win broke 82 years of Oscar history. Imagine if someone had said “no woman has won Best Director in 82 years.” Was that going to stop me or you from believing that Bigelow could win? No.
Read MoreThe SAG Nominations – The Good, the Bad and the Ugly
There is no need to panic about a few of the details today at the SAG award nominations. For instance, many thought Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy might have done better — but it will do very very well at the BAFTAs, which will push it from thence towards Oscar. I also think Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, and The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo were late entries and wouldn’t show up at SAG — they probably weren’t seen by enough members, I’m guessing. I don’t think Tinker, Tailor was seen much either. But I should probably research a bit before making sweeping statements like that.
When people say things like Shailene Woodley was left off – well, she wasn’t left off because she got an ensemble nod. So technically it wasn’t an out and out snub. Albert Brooks, though, did get a snub — however, he has many more friends in the Academy than in SAG, so I’m expecting he’ll still make it in the Oscar race. Gary Oldman, Woody Harrelson, and of course, Michael Fassbender were all left off the Best Actor list. But Demian Bichir’s nomination is a cause for celebration. It was a “little” movie but what a great performance. His has stuck with me through the months – partly because of the character he plays but also his restrained performance is so moving.
Read MoreSAG Nominations – The Help Leads
18th ANNUAL SCREEN ACTORS GUILD AWARDS® NOMINATIONS
THEATRICAL MOTION PICTURES
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role
DEMIÁN BICHIR / Carlos Galindo – “A BETTER LIFE” (Summit Entertainment)
GEORGE CLOONEY / Matt King – “THE DESCENDANTS” (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
LEONARDO DiCAPRIO / J. Edgar Hoover – “J. EDGAR” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JEAN DUJARDIN / George – “THE ARTIST” (The Weinstein Company)
BRAD PITT / Billy Beane – “MONEYBALL” (Columbia Pictures)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role
GLENN CLOSE / Albert Nobbs – “ALBERT NOBBS” (Roadside Attractions)
VIOLA DAVIS / Aibileen Clark – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
MERYL STREEP / Margaret Thatcher – “THE IRON LADY” (The Weinstein Company)
TILDA SWINTON / Eva – “WE NEED TO TALK ABOUT KEVIN” (Oscilloscope Laboratories)
MICHELLE WILLIAMS / Marilyn Monroe – “MY WEEK WITH MARILYN” (The Weinstein Company)
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role
KENNETH BRANAGH / Sir Laurence Olivier – “MY WEEK WITH MARILYN” (The Weinstein Company)
ARMIE HAMMER / Clyde Tolson – “J. EDGAR” (Warner Bros. Pictures)
JONAH HILL / Peter Brand – “MONEYBALL” (Columbia Pictures)
NICK NOLTE / Paddy Conlon – “WARRIOR” (Lionsgate)
CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER / Hal – “BEGINNERS” (Focus Features)
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role
BÉRÉNICE BEJO / Peppy – “THE ARTIST” (The Weinstein Company)
JESSICA CHASTAIN / Celia Foote – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
MELISSA McCARTHY / Megan – “BRIDESMAIDS” (Universal Pictures)
JANET McTEER / Hubert Page – “ALBERT NOBBS” (Roadside Attractions)
OCTAVIA SPENCER / Minny Jackson – “THE HELP” (DreamWorks Pictures / Touchstone Pictures)
SAG Nominations – No Guts, No Glory
For our 12th Annual No Guts, No Glory you can name three potential upsets — like serious upsets — that might happen tomorrow morning. They have to be near impossibilities. But still within the realm of reality. Pick up to 3.
My three are:
1. Harry Potter for ensemble
2. Drive for ensemble
3. Demian Bechir for Best Actor
SAG Award Nominations Preview
There seem to be three things that drive the actors to choose performances for the SAG awards, which will announce tomorrow bright and early, 6am Pacific – Performance, popularity, notoriety/reputation. The big question for tomorrow will be whether voters will choose some of the wild cars that haven’t been showing up lately – Glenn Close in Albert Nobbs, specifically, but also Woody Harrelson in Rampart, Kevin Spacey in Margin Call, Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene, and on and on or whether they will stick fairly close to what we’ve been seeing. Extremely Loud and Dragon Tattoo remain the unknown factor in all respects.
Either way, I feel like I’m more in the dark this year about what they’d choose than I ever have been. Since so many movies opened late you have to wonder how it will all shake down. Will this be a year when Oscar and SAG match up well? Or will this be a year when they don’t?
Before it gets too late I suppose I’ll try to predict how it will go. I start with what I know for sure and work my way down. But I do remember that there is an aspect to the SAG Awards that’s like the BFCAs, the Globes and the Oscars: they like pretty people on their red carpets and coming to their show.
So herewith, my predictions–
Best Actor
George Clooney, The Descendants
Brad Pitt, Moneyball
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Michael Fassbender, Shame
Leonardo DiCaprio, J. Edgar
Alt: Gary Oldman, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy
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