The Artist Takes the Lead in Oscar’s Best Picture Race, Says the Gurus of Gold, Gold Derby

If there were any doubts before, there are no doubts now.  The black and white silent French film, The Artist, has taken the lead in this year’s Best Picture race, according to we Gurus of Gold and of course, over at Gold Derby.  There is always that point in the year when you just know.  And there is no stopping this movie. If there had been any stopping it it would have happened months ago.  But the hype is not destroying it.  If anything, it’s helping it.  It reminds me of the Slumdog Millionaire year, where there was just this one movie that took everything in front of it.  If we go by Anne Thompson’s branch-by-branch theory, The Artist has it all: actors, check. Director, check. Writers, check. Art directors, check. Cinematography, check. Costume, check. Score, check. Editing, check.  Sound, mais bien sur! Well, let’s say imaginative sound mixers would nominate the Artist for its clever and specific use of sound.  What it’s missing: gravitas.  That old song Oscar requires so that something feels bigger and more “important.” Of course, Chicago didn’t have it and that movie had what the Artist had (yes, Weinsteins pushing it but also) it was just a good time to be had by all.  The universal appeal of The Artist is what has it winning critics, industry and audiences alike.

Universal appeal is what gets the big house votes, the 9,000, the 6,000, the 100,000 guild voting blocks – ain’t no way they’re going to grow a pair and pick something outside that realm of “you can sit anyone down in front of it and they will get it if not love it.” What can override that, of course, is love for the filmmakers (Coens, Scorsese), or the desire to push forth real change (Bigelow).  But mostly, yeah, you get the idea.  What pleases, massages, comforts the most people wins.  It’s as simple as that. As far as those kinds of movies go, if the Artist wins it will be one of their better choices.

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Gurus of Gold — So That Happened

With so much going on here at Awards Daily and it being the time of year when we can barely stay above water, I forgot to put in my Gurus of Gold predictions. Between sending them over there and updating the ones on Gold Derby, it is becoming a bit of a problem to find time, and/or rational thought, to stay on top of it. Right now nobody knows anything. And I mean that. The critics have all but scattered in different directions. We’ve yet to hear from the Guilds. The Globes, Boston, LA are all announcing this weekend. That will probably confirm the one thing we already do know — it’s either The Artist or Hugo. But probably the Artist. When you’re an Oscar predictor you can do one of two things. You can do what you think is going to happen or you can do what you hope might happen. Even the safest among us sometimes go with what they hope might happen, or else, have the chance to sway opinion. There are a couple of people who can sway opinion, and Dave Karger from EW is most certainly at the top of that list, I’d say. His prediction for the Artist goes way, way back. And with nothing else to really see as beating it at this point, most everyone else follows suit. Karger is reliable; after all, he and Anne Thompson were among only two who stuck with the King’s Speech even when all signs pointed to, well, you know.

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Gurus of Gold: What Does Best Original Screenplay Really Mean?

When I was asked by Gurus of Gold to submit my predictions for Adapted and Original Screenplay I had to stop and think about it.  I’ve worn a groove over the years knowing how to predict in these categories.  Best Screenplay almost always means a second prize to a Best Picture/Best Director nomination.  It is usually the dumping ground for brilliant films that can’t get traction in the Best Picture/Best Director categories at best.  But most of the time, when you think of the major categories you start with Best Picture and Best Director. If it gets those two, chances are (unless its name is James Cameron) it will also get a screenplay nomination.  This year, like every other year, the Best Picture race is dominated by adaptations.  Adaptations of tested stories that have been brought to the big screen by great filmmakers.  But the story itself isn’t an original one.

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The Gurus of Gold Pre-Toronto Check

It’s that time of year again for spitballing the Best Picture nominees.  You won’t be surprised by the titles floating around in this year’s chart – in fact, any one of you readers could probably come up with a similar scenario.   It’s not the most fun thing in the world, participating in this.  For one thing, you have to predict movies you haven’t even seen — movies no one has seen.  So you get to look like a fool if there are any major changes.  Also, last year I deliberately refused to predict The King’s Speech to win on that chart as a matter of protest (silly, I know) — which means I have to relive the nightmare all over again! Yay!  Meanwhile Dave Karger fiercely held on and never let go.  Either way, here is how it’s went down.

There seems to be some disagreement about Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor and of course, The Help.  Interesting to see more diversity in this year’s selection than last year’s (listed below).

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The Social Network Can’t Win Best Picture, Say the Gurus

Even after the critics votes came down this past week, the Gurus still have the King’s Speech in the number one spot to win the Best Picture prize. Their votes in the graphic below, and their current Golden Globe predictions. Not much has changed, according to Kris Tapley, Anne Thompson, Dave Karger, etc. King Speech still in the lead. The two films I feel like are surging right now, other than the obvious one, would be The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right, both coming on very very strong.¬† The Gurus have The Fighter jumping to the number 3 spot, which is pretty good, but The Kids Are All Right is way too far down on the list, I think. Also, Black Swan is doing well with critics and guild voters (we only have one guild to go on, but still).

Speaking of Golden Globes predictions, Gold Derby also queried several Oscar peeps to get their Golden Globe predictions (I abstained because I think it’s too early…). I was asked to rank them for Movie City News, not to predict them.

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Golden Globes Preview for Major Categories

In addition to the Los Angeles Film Critics and the New York Film Critics Online announcing on Sunday (FYI – LA Film Critics will be tweeting their winners around 12:30pm PST – follow them @LAFilmCritics, and us, @awardsdaily), and New York Film Critics Circle announcing on Monday, the Golden Globes will announce their nominations Tuesday morning. That makes this one of the most intense few days of the early part of the awards race. After we hear from the major critics, we will then start hearing from the industry – the guild awards, like the SAG, the DGA and the PGA and eventually, the AMPAS will carry their heavy load to the final gasp of awards season. You have to kind of feel for the AMPAS of late. When I first started this back in 1999, there weren’t that many other awards shows or award announcements leading up to the Oscars. Now, it’s an odyssey. It’s an exodus.

It is because of this that the AMPAS can sometimes go against the grain and provide an upset or two. One notable recent upset was Geoffrey Fletcher winning screenplay for Precious. Another was the year Alan Arkin beat Eddie Murphy for Supporting Actor.

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The King’s Speech Still Leads the Gurus of Gold

There didn’t seem to be a ripple over at Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold after the National Board of Review announcement. All but two of the pundits have The King’s Speech to win the Best Picture Oscar – that would be Dave Karger, Kris Tapley, David Poland, Pete Hammond, Anne Thompson, Steve Pond, SusanWloszczyna, Pete Howell, Eugene Hernandez, and Gregory Ellwood – all in the camp of The King’s Speech. The two holdouts are Yours Truly and Emanuel Levy. Anthony Breznican has True Grit to win it. Each little movement in the race shifts things. It is being said that The Social Network is, take your pick: two young thinking for the Academy, with non-likable characters, or it’s the Facebook thing because Academy members are out of touch.

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Gurus Again

David Poland is running the Gurus chart weekly now and in the latest installment, they still have The King’s Speech in number one, but the curious thing about that is Best Director is all over the map. Only two of them have Tom Hooper down for winning, while many have Fincher down for winning. Also worth noting, Poland himself puts Darren Aronofsky in the winner’s seat. All I have to say about that is that Mr. David Lynch never won Best Director, even when he should have — that makes Aronofsky’s win a long shot.

Take a look.

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Gurus Ring in for November

The Gurus of Gold are predicting The King’s Speech to win the Oscar for Best Picture. They are also predicting Colin Firth for Best Actor and Annette Bening for Best Actress. The King’s Speech could then be in line, if they are right, to win Picture, Director, Actor, maybe Screenplay, maybe Costumes.

Let’s take a quick look back at the Gurus over the past few years around this time.

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Best Picture: Hope is the Thing with Feathers

Hope is the thing with feathers
That perches in the soul,
And sings the tune–without the words,
And never stops at all
–Emily Dickinson

It’s always more fun to imagine things that haven’t happened yet, isn’t it? There are no limits to our expectations. We can foist all of our hopes and dreams onto a contender and while that dream is alive, hope springs eternal. But sooner or later reality comes knocking. And when reality sets in, suddenly there are less questions, more resignation and a lot less enthusiasm.

I was surprised to see this Best Picture chart by Movie City News’ head Guru, David Poland, rank several sight unseen Best Picture contenders. In the number one spot he has True Grit. It’s the number one film and the one no one has seen. It’s easy to imagine a Best Picture frontrunner when it’s all still on the page. But right now, there is no THERE there. And right below The Social Network, which he has ranked at number 4, he has The Fighter, another sight unseen contender.

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Gurus Disclaimer

I’ve just been schooled on what the Gurus of Gold is supposed to be. Apparently, it’s not a chart that predicts winners, but a chart that predicts “most likely to be nominated.” That is certainly not how I’ve seen it all of these many years, but it certainly would be a hell of a lot easier if so. If it was a list of “most likely to be nominated” my rankings would be slightly different.

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The Gurus of Gold Put The King’s Speech at Number One

If you want to know what film the pundits are naming the frontrunner, you can now officially call that film The King’s Speech. Although it isn’t a complete consensus, and there are holdouts. Kris Tapley put Toy Story 3 at number one (just like last time out), while USA Today’s Anthony Breznican and MCN’s David Poland both have True Grit in the number one spot. Many others, including Anne Thompson, Pete Hammond and Dave Karger all have The King’s Speech at number one.

The film’s acting nominations also lead in their field – Colin Firth is the one most likely to succeed, according to almost all of the members of this panel — the holdouts are Breznican, who says Jeff Bridges, and David Poland, who thinks James Franco wins. I don’t know much about this race at this stage of the game, and I haven’t yet seen 127 Hours, but bet against Firth at your own peril.

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The Gurus of Gold Prelim Guesses, Inception Out Front

You know how it goes: sight unseen best picture predictions seem unavoidable, although I have been detecting an ever-so-subtle shift in attitudes. For instance, Anne Thompson and Erik Childress will only predict films that have been seen on their respective sites. I have always tried to do the same (it makes no sense to predict movies no one has seen; this logic is unavoidable, and yet…) but when asked to contribute to a spitball-fest, how can one say no? David Poland does it this way in order to compare how people were thinking at a given point in time.

This should not be misconstrued as anything but what it is. It certainly isn’t Oscar buzz. You can’t say “The Social Network now has Oscar buzz because the Gurus of Gold are predicting it.” Boil it down and it doesn’t count as actual Oscar buzz. I feel I must qualify this every year. Nonetheless, we all tossed up our half-lame predictions. My biggest surprise was that I was the only one predicting Fair Game.

I left off Blue Valentine for the time being because I only have mine, Dave Karger and Guy Lodge’s opinions to go on. If it comes out strong after Toronto then, yes. But, as I’ve always said, it’s a tough sell. It’s a hard sit. What it has going for it is filmmaker Derek Cianfrance’s incredible and thorough research and dedication to this decade-long project. But it is a hard sit.

Right now, Christopher Nolan’s mindbending spectacular spectacular is leading the chart. I like it that four out of the top five are films that have been seen, followed by The Social Network and True Grit (which haven’t been seen).

You can judge for yourselves if you think the Gurus are right or wrong. The chart, after the cut.

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Gurus of Gold Goes Up

David Poland asked the Gurus to submit their picks before this whole trashy story about The Hurt Locker emerged — and thus, I expect several may change their Best Pic predictions before all is said and done. Gurus are invited to change whatever they want. Two of them, Poland of course, are sticking with Avatar. For now, everyone else seems to feel that The Hurt Locker is ahead. You can find predictions in all of the categories (except the shorts) this time.

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The Gurus Give Opinions

Usually they are just a group of scores on a chart, but this week the Gurus of Gold did something a little different – they had an essay portion. I did not get mine in in time so mine is blank – but I will offer it up here at the end of the piece in case you’re interested.

Meanwhile, here are a few quotes:

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