The Gurus of Gold Prelim Guesses, Inception Out Front
You know how it goes: sight unseen best picture predictions seem unavoidable, although I have been detecting an ever-so-subtle shift in attitudes. For instance, Anne Thompson and Erik Childress will only predict films that have been seen on their respective sites. I have always tried to do the same (it makes no sense to predict movies no one has seen; this logic is unavoidable, and yet…) but when asked to contribute to a spitball-fest, how can one say no? David Poland does it this way in order to compare how people were thinking at a given point in time.
This should not be misconstrued as anything but what it is. It certainly isn’t Oscar buzz. You can’t say “The Social Network now has Oscar buzz because the Gurus of Gold are predicting it.” Boil it down and it doesn’t count as actual Oscar buzz. I feel I must qualify this every year. Nonetheless, we all tossed up our half-lame predictions. My biggest surprise was that I was the only one predicting Fair Game.
I left off Blue Valentine for the time being because I only have mine, Dave Karger and Guy Lodge’s opinions to go on. If it comes out strong after Toronto then, yes. But, as I’ve always said, it’s a tough sell. It’s a hard sit. What it has going for it is filmmaker Derek Cianfrance’s incredible and thorough research and dedication to this decade-long project. But it is a hard sit.
Right now, Christopher Nolan’s mindbending spectacular spectacular is leading the chart. I like it that four out of the top five are films that have been seen, followed by The Social Network and True Grit (which haven’t been seen).
You can judge for yourselves if you think the Gurus are right or wrong. The chart, after the cut.
Read MoreGurus of Gold Goes Up
David Poland asked the Gurus to submit their picks before this whole trashy story about The Hurt Locker emerged — and thus, I expect several may change their Best Pic predictions before all is said and done. Gurus are invited to change whatever they want. Two of them, Poland of course, are sticking with Avatar. For now, everyone else seems to feel that The Hurt Locker is ahead. You can find predictions in all of the categories (except the shorts) this time.
The Gurus Give Opinions
Usually they are just a group of scores on a chart, but this week the Gurus of Gold did something a little different – they had an essay portion. I did not get mine in in time so mine is blank – but I will offer it up here at the end of the piece in case you’re interested.
Meanwhile, here are a few quotes:
Read MoreBest Picture – of Frontrunners and Potential Upsets
Two big differences this year will ultimately affect the outcome of the race. The first is that there were ten Best Pic nominees.¬† The second is that they moved the Oscars back to March, not quite late March like they used to be – but at least they’re in March.¬† Changing the date changes the pattern of the way the Academy chooses its winners because there is more time to think about the general consensus.¬† The general consensus is set in place over at the Gurus of Gold, which has your usual suspects in first place — the only categories have some disagreement are Best Picture and the two screenplay categories.
One question that keeps nagging at me is the idea of The Hurt Locker, a tiny movie hardly anyone saw, actually winning Best Picture. It has everything going for it except that Avatar is more popular, Inglourious Basterds won the SAG.  What it has in its favor, of course, is that it has won when large voting bodies have come together, most importantly, the DGA. One crucial loss was the SAG ensemble vote.
Read MoreThe Gurus of Gold Proves I’m No Math Whiz
I told David Poland I didn’t want to participate in the Gurus of Gold this week because he was doing percentages. My experience awards watching has taught me that even when something is a sure bet, there are large groups of people who have a different contender in mind. I know this by the pre-Oscar interviews. And anyway, it’s just the nature of human beings: we don’t all think alike. The one with the most average votes wins (unless we’re talking about Best Pic). That is why my percentages here were so close — it isn’t that I think Mo’Nique or Christoph Waltz are weak contenders at all; I don’t. It’s that the Oscar race is almost never about the one person (unless it’s someone like Heath Ledger last year). Anyway, I seem to be the only one of the Gurus of Gold who felt this way, as everyone else is doing the 90% thing. Except me. Of course. I’m so bad at math.
Keep in mind that we don’t even know the nominees yet. And the nominees could change everything. I kind of like Dave Karger’s 50/50 scenarios. It’s a safe and effective way of guessing. I wish I had thought of that. But, alas.
Meanwhile, Inglourious Basterds appears to have some real momentum here. Could it be this becomes a three-way race?
Read MoreGurus Ring In
Here are the top ten according the Gurus of Gold. Click here to see the rankings in the other top categories.
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