The Hurt Locker
DGA (directing)
WGA (writing)
PGA (producing)
The Los Angeles Film Critics
The New York Film Critics
Eddie (editing)
Austin Film Critics
Kansas City Film Critics
Las Vegas Film Critics
National Society of Film Critics
Chicago Film Critics
BAFTA (6)
Boston Film Critics
Critics Choice
Chicago Film Critics
Online Film Critics
San Francisco Film Critics

Up in the Air
National Society of Film Critics
National Board of Review (4)
Florida Film Critics
Kansas City Film Critics
Southeastern Film Critics (3)
Vancouver Film Critics
Washington DC Film Critics
WGA (writing)
BAFTA (writing)

Inglourious Basterds
Phoenix Film Critics
Screen Actors Guild (ensemble)
BFCA (ensemble)

Precious
Sundance
Toronto (audience award)
Chicago International Film Fest (Audience Award)

Avatar
Golden Globes (2)

An Education
A Serious Man
District 9
The Blind Side
Up

Best Original Screenplay

Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
-Chicago Film Critics
-Nantucket Film Festival
-Writers Guild
-BAFTA

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
-Austin Film Critics
-Critics Choice
-Central Ohio Film Critics
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Online Film Critics
-San Diego Film Critics
-San Francisco Film Critics
-Toronto Film Critics
-Washington DC Area Film Critics

Joel and Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
-Boston Film Critics
-National Board of Review
-National Society of Film Critics

Bob Peterson, Pete Docter, Up
-Phoenix Film Critcs

Oren Moverman, Alessandro Camo The Messenger
-Berlin Film Festival

Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
-Austin Film Critics
-Broadcast Film Critics (Critics Choice)
-Chicago Film Critics
-Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
-Phoenix Film Society
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Los Angeles Film Critics
-National Board of the Review
-Southeastern Film Critics
-Toronto Film Critics
-Washington, DC Film Critics
-Golden Globes
-USC Scripter

Armando Iannucci, In the Loop+
Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious**
Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell, District 9**
Nick Hornby, An Education*

Best Editing

Stephen Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron, Avatar
Chris Innis, Bob Murawski, The Hurt Locker – Ace Eddie Winner
Julian Clarke, District 9
Joe Klotz, Precious
Sally Menke, Inglourious Basterds

It is rare for a Best Picture winner not to also have an editing nod.  The Best Pic nominees that also have Directing, Writing, Acting and Editing are The Hurt Locker, Precious, Inglourious Basterds.  Up in the Air lacks an editing nod, and Avatar lacks acting and writing.

But I wanted to see if the rule applied when there were ten nominees for Best Pic.  The preferential balloting was used then as well, per the AMPAS site:

In 1934 and 1935, there were 12 nominees for Best Picture and the preferential system was used to determine the winners. From 1936 through 1943, there were 10 nominees for Best Picture and the preferential system was used for final balloting. In 1944 and 1945, the preferential system continued to be used, though there were only five nominees in the category.

Let’s take a look again at the decade when they had ten, 1936 to 1943.

1943 – Casablanca — Editing, writing, acting, directing
1942 – Mrs. Miniver — Editing, writing, acting, directing
1941 – How Green was My Valley – Editing, writing, acting, directing
1940 – Rebecca - Editing, writing, acting, directing
1939 – Gone with the Wind – Editing, writing, acting, directing
1938 – You Can’t Take it With You – Editing, writing, acting, directing
1937 – Life of Emile Zola – writing, acting, directing
1936 – The Great Ziegfeld – Editing, writing, acting, directing.

So, even though Up in the Air doesn’t have an editing nod, it would seem less important than if it were lacking a director, writer, or acting nod under the preferential system.

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
-Austin Film Critics
-Boston Society of Film Critics
-Austin Film Critics
-Broadcast Film Critics (Critics Choice)
-Chicago Film Critics
-Hollywood Film Festival (Director of the Year)
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Las Vegas Film Critics
-San Francisco Film Critics
-Santa Barbara International Film Festival
-Golden Satellites
-Southeastern Film Critics
-Toronto Film Critics
-Washington DC Film Critics
-Los Angeles Film Critics
-New York Film Critics
-National Society of Film Critics
-DGA

Jim Cameron, Avatar
-Golden Globe

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
-San Diego Film Critics

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
-Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
-Florida Film Critics
-Palms Springs International Film Festival

Lee Daniels, Precious

Best Documentary

The Cove
-Boston Film Critics
-DGA
-Florida Film Critics
-Galway Film Fest
-Hot Docs
-Los Angeles Film Critics
-Nantucket Film Festival
-National Board of Review
-Newport Beach Film Festival
-PGA Awards
-San Diego Film Critics
-Seattle Film Critics
-Silverdocs Film Fest
-Stockholm Film Festival
-Sundance Film Festival Audience Award
-Sydney Film Festival
-Toronto Film Critics

Food, Inc.
-Critics Choice
-Gotham Film Awards
-Southeastern Film Critics
-Washington, DC Area Film Critics

The Beaches of Agnes
-Cesar
-The Los Angeles Film Critics
-Etoiles d’Or

Burma VJ
-Amsterdam International Film Critics
-Bodil Awards
-Boulder International Film Critics
-National Board of Review (Freedom of Expression)
-Robert Festival
-Sundance Film Festival

The Most Dangerous Man in America
-Amsterdam International Film Critics (Special Jury Award)
-National Board of Review (Freedom of Expression)

Which Way Home

Once again, the doc feature category contains some of the best films of the year period.  Going by popularity and critics’ awards alone, The Cove seems to be the film that most people are going to think will win.  The doc category is unpredictable, though.  One just never knows how it will turn out.  Voters have to see all five films to vote on the winners.  It isn’t like the other categories.  This is true of the foreign films.  They all must seen on the big screen, not on a screener, for the voters to be able to pick the winners.  That means, to accurately predict these categories, one should see all of the films.  Even then it is sometimes difficult.

The Cove seems like it can’t lose.  Right behind it is Food, Inc.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
-Critics Choice Award
-Golden Globe
-Screen Actors Guild

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
-Boston Film Critics
-Critics Choice
-Golden Globe
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Phoenix Film Critics
-San Francisco Film Critics
-Southeastern Film Critics
-New York Film Critics

Carey Mulligan, An Education
-British Independent Film Award
-Chicago Film Critics (Actress, Most Promising Performer)
-Hollywood Film Fest (Breakthrough Award)
-National Board of Review
-Santa Barbara Film Festival (Virtuoso Award)
-Toronto Film Critics
-Washington DC Area Film Critics

Gabby Sidibe, Precious
-Boston Film Critics (Ensemble)
-Florida Film Critics
-Las Vegas Film Critics
-National Board of Review (Breakthrough)
-Phoenix Film Critics (Breakout)
-Santa Barbara (Virtuoso Award)
-Washington DC Film Critics (Breakthrough)

Helen Mirren, The Last Station
-Rome Film Festival

Best Supporting Actress

Mo’Nique, Precious
-Boston Society (Ensemble and Supporting)
-Critics Choice
-Chicago Film Critics
-Dallas-Fort Worth Film Critics
-Florida Film Critics
-Golden Globes
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Las Vegas Film Critics
-Los Angeles Film Critics
-National Society of Film Critics
-New York Film Critics
-Phoenix Film Critics
-Screen Actors Guild
-Southeastern Film Critics
-Stockholm Film Festival
-Washington DC Film Critics

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
-Austin Film Critics
-National Board of Review
-Toronto Film Critics
-Rising Star Award, Palm Springs International Film Fest

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
Penelope Cruz, Nine
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
-Critics Choice
-Golden Globe
-Los Angeles Film Critics
-Screen Actors Guild

George Clooney, Up in the Air
-Dallas-Fort Worth
-Florida Film Critics
-Kansas City Film Critics
-National Board of Review
-Phoenix Film Society
-Southeastern Film Critics
-Washington, DC Film Critics

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
- Boston Film Critics
-Chicago Film Critics
-Gotham Awards (ensemble)
-Las Vegas Film Critics

Colin Firth, A Single Man
-Austin Film Critics
-San Diego Film Critics
-San Francisco Film Critics
-Volpi Prize, Venice Film Fesitval

Morgan Freeman, Invictus
-National Board of Review

Best Supporting Actor

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
-Austin Film Critics
-Boston Film Critics
-Critics Choice
-Cannes Film Festival (best actor)
-Chicago Film Critics
-Dallas-Fort Worth
-Florida Film Critics
-Golden Globes
-Hollywood Film Festival
-Kansas City Film Critics
-Las Vegas Film Critics
-Los Angeles Film Critics
-National Society of Film Critics
-New York Film Critics
-Phoenix Film Critics
-San Diego Film Critics
-Screen Actors Guild
-Southeastern Film Critics
-Toronto Film Critics
-Washington DC Area Film Critics

Woody Harrelson,The Messenger
-National Board of Review

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Matt Damon, Invictus

The question of which film will win best pic is still a big question.  At this rate, the preferential balloting could put any film in the top spot.  It doesn’t have to be the film with the most number one votes, but the film that turns up on more ballots close to the top.  So it is most likely right now, Avatar or The Hurt Locker.  But Up in the Air, Inglourious Basterds and Precious all have a shot of upsetting because of where they might turn up on the final ballots.  But what does seem clear is that Kathryn Bigelow will be winning Best Director.

At any rate, Kathryn Bigelow gets put in the number one spot for both Picture and Director.

No one was predicting that The Hurt Locker would actually beat Avatar at the Producers Guild tonight.  So sure was Awards Daily, in fact, that we didn’t even bother running a contest.  But in a stunning upset, the producers went instead for The Hurt Locker, the David to Avatar’s Goliath.  The film only made $12 million at the box office but is widely considered to be the best film of the year, by critics’ standards anyway.

This guts Avatar’s momentum coming off of the Globes and heading towards beating Titanic all-time record.  Next stop, the DGAs.  And after that, the Oscar nominations.  Cameron could still win the DGA.  Bigelow has a really good shot there – in fact, her chances were better for the DGA than the film’s for the PGA.  Winning this award for The Hurt Locker was not unlike Slumdog Millionaire winning the SAG ensemble: this showed that more voters actually liked The Hurt Locker more than money.  That’s something.

Data from Box Office Mojo.

As you can see, Avatar is doing it faster and it will get there pretty soon to become the highest grossing film of all time (not adjusted for inflation).

Chart after the cut.

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