Nat over at the Film Experience has put up a prelim predictions article. Early ones are usually a good spot check to see what people were thinking before the season starts. This is how we ran into trouble with several films over the years, like Munich or Road to Perdition or Charlie Wilson’s War – on paper, everybody’s a winner.
Nat asks the following two questions, which I will provide my own answer for:
You know you wanna diss / congratulate me for my psychic abilities. But first, answer me these questions three:
- Do you think the Clint Eastwood vs. Spike Lee brouhaha (regarding the lack of black soldiers in Eastwood’s 2006 WWII movies) will continue into this Oscar season along with their films Changeling & Miracle at St. Anna’s… or die out quickly?
It’s possible that the side of Spike Big Hollywood has never liked could come in and ruin things, Oscar-wise. Does that matter big picture? Not really. Not all films and filmmakers must be judged against Oscar – by God, no. That would greatly dumb down the artistic process. BUT if we’re talking Oscar here, there is atonement to be had (Do the Right Thing) but there is still residual annoyance with Lee’s continual harping. This, according to the Eastwood-worshipping Academy, would not be a big surprise. On the other hand, if the movie is too big to ignore they will have to hold their nose and vote for it, no matter what
- Do you think the Brothers Weinstein will finally get their Oscar groove back what with a promising slate that features Woody Allen (Vicky Christina Barcelona),Kate Winslet and Ralph Fiennes –maybe– (The Reader) and a Stephen Frears / legendary actress vehicle (Ch√©ri) hot on the heels of his Oscar success The Queen (2006)?
I smell a Nat agenda here — he loves Michelle Pfeiffer so naturally Cheri would be at the top of the list! Just kidding, Nat. Never count out the Weinsteins.¬†¬† I wouldn’t pin too many hopes on Woody’s movie, save Penelope and maybe Javier Bardem but the Winslet one looks fine indeed – remember, those notorious Anglophiles will give it its requisite attention. Fingers crossed for Pfeiffer.
- Which seemingly baity property do you consider most suspect in reality?
All, or most. Benjamin Button is the one I don’t see having Oscar potential. Fan boy potential YES but Oscar? Not sure. Homophobes in the Academy may shy away from Milk for Best Pic. Nat has Button, Defiance, Doubt, Milk and St. Annas for Best Pic. Of these, only the Spike movie seems to be the one without baggage. However, this gives it, sad to say, a handicap. At this stage in the game the last thing a film wants to be is thought of as an Oscar contender or being predicted as a major player. Sight unseen, it’s wholly damaging. The ones no one is sure about or aren’t even on anyone’s radar, these are the ones to pay attention to. Kind of defeats the whole purpose but there it is. For me, I’d call the Big Five (and thus jinx each of them): Revolutionary Road, Frost/Nixon, Changeling, Miracle at St. Annas, Defiance maybe. Che maybe if Soderbergh shrinks it significantly and gives it a plot.
Vicky Cristina Barcelona poster here:
http://lacomunidad.elpais.com/alta-definicion/2008/6/17/-vicky-cristina-barcelona-ya-poster
Australia.
That is all.
ha, RRA, it’s folly indeed.
I remember the June when I was singing the unseen praises of All the Kings Men.
(“Alexander” — too gay and yet, not nearly gay enough. At least maybe it paved the way for Brokeback.)
(I might have already screwed up my 10 finalists by leaving out House of Lies. Finished the novel last night and the last 50 pages makes up for the scattershot plotting of the first 300. Now on the script, to see how Monahan tightened it up. This might be decent thriller after all. Sure has better bones than Michael Clayton.)
The last time I tried to predict Oscars this far early, it was 2004 when I put ALEXANDER among the Best Picture nominees.
No shit.
Meryl Streep, Best Actress 2008, “Doubt”
It’s going to happen.
It’s 25 years overdue.
I wasnt to impressed by the St. Anna trailer, if anyhing it’ll get a few artistic nods and maybe a screenplay nod.
But as far as the final 5 goes im seeing:
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Exchange
Frost/Nixon
Revolutionary Road
I wish that Spike Lee would shut his mouth. He has made some fantastic films: Do the Right Thing, Malcolm X. But damn he turns me off when he opens his mouth. Let the movies speak for themselves.
Nice choices, Ryan. PSH is in both tiers and with double underdog status, he’s sure to be nominated.
I’m hoping to jinx my five early so that they all become underdogs and thus upsets:
· Australia
· The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
· Doubt
· The Miracle at St Anna
· Revolutionary Road
(As the most highfalutin of the group, Doubt may be the weakest of the 5, and gets sacrificed for the year’s obligatory splashy middlebrow juggernaut and/or brainy offbeat indie.)
Second tier:
· Defiance
· The Exchange (hello splashy)
· Milk
· Synecdoche, NY (hello brainy)
· WALL·E
“Benjamin Button is the one I don’t see having Oscar potential. ”
What properties must a movie have in order to have “Oscar potential”? The cast is phenomenal. They have a great director at the helm, and the material is weighty. This doesn’t assure us anything, but it would seem to at least have SOME Oscar potential. Are you speaking exclusively in the best picture category? Or, any Oscar category? You need to elaborate a bit more on this statement. Right now, it seems a bit awkward.
[what is a “fanboy” btw]
I love Spike Lee as a director, but as a person I think he is an egoist of gigantic proportions….if he is going to get any love from the academy, he has to drop the attitude, and show some humility….besides, I think the angry black man persona is a little tired in this day and age.
I don’t see Defiance staying until the end. It seems like one of those films that get press early hold but can’t keep it going. Who knows, though. It looks like.
Do we really think this will be Spike’s year?
In hobbit news, that MacAvoy as Bilbo thing turned out to be a crock:
http://www.collider.com/entertainment/news/article.asp/aid/8186/tcid/1
Personally, I’m stoked. Bring on Tom Hollander! Maybe his work in The Soloist will give him some extra exposure.
VCB Barcelona should get Oscar noms for Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress (Cruz). For the Globes add Best Picture Comedy or Musical and Best Actor (Bardem) Comedy or Musical.
I don’t think The Reader will be finished in time but time but who knows. I read the book and Fiennes has a very small role but if it is powerfulvon screen then he could get nominated. Winslet is a good bet.
No Winslet? That’s crazy talk! OK, I *really* think it’s Kate’s year. It’s obviously a hunch at this time, but one that I cannot shake.
ETA: I’m also predicting a Spike Lee snub of “Malcolm X” proportions, by the way.
@ The Jack: It was more the look of the film itself and Spike’s pedigree that got people considering it a contender. But they might not have noticed Miracle at all if it weren’t for Spike being, well, Spike. I agree, he might just know what he’s doing.
LOL Jack. I’m starting to get the feeling Spike planned this whole thing.
Weinsteins, Schmeinsteins… give Kate her Oscar already.
People are finally starting to see Miracle At St. Anna as an Oscar contender now. And all it took was Spike Lee to call Clint Eastwood racist.