In one corner, mighty Paramount’s $100 million movie with one of the world’s biggest stars and one of the most exciting films of the year. In the other corner, the tiny Dallas Buyers Club which got made on a wing and a prayer, so lacking in funds they couldn’t even afford a lighting crew or lights. It’s the kind of David and Goliath story that really can’t lose. If you’re betting for an upset this year, I’m not sure betting against McConaughey, and Dallas Buyers Club, is the way to go.
Tom makes a good case, saying that so far Leonardo DiCaprio and Matthew McConaughey have not gone up against each other at a major awards show yet. DiCaprio was not nominated for a SAG award and McConaughey isn’t nominated for a BAFTA. But also keep in mind, no actor has ever won the Oscar for Best Actor without a corresponding SAG nomination. Best Actor is different from Supporting, though Tom’s general theory is right – there wasn’t enough time for Wolf to bake in SAG voters’ minds. One thing seems clear to me, though, at both BAFTA and SAG American Hustle was far more popular. BUT.
In all of Globes-SAG- Oscar history, only once has an actor beat the frontrunner and there were mitigating circumstances. In 2001, Russell Crowe was headed for his second Best Actor win. He was up against Denzel Washington who, as yet, had only won Supporting and had been shafted more often then rewarded. Crowe had an altercation at the BAFTAs at exactly the wrong time. Halle Berry was headed for her historic Best Actress win and in a twist no one could have predicted (except Roger Ebert and me) both Denzel Washington and Halle Berry won. A Beautiful Mind still won Best Picture but Crowe was left out in the cold.