Best Actress

I’d always enjoyed Lisa Kudrow’s performance on Friends as the looney and lovable Phoebe Buffay. A show widely praised for its comedic ensemble, Friends benefitted from Kudrow’s off-kilter aura and infectious charm. She didn’t have to carry the show, so she could basically effortlessly float in her own orbit around the rest of the more studied cast.

It wasn’t until HBO’s first season of The Comeback way back in 2005 when I realized that Kudrow was indeed a brilliant comedic actress and was capable of far greater things than the confines of Phoebe Buffay. Entering into The Comeback in a close partnership with Michael Patrick King, Kudrow created the incredible character of Valerie Cherish, a former minor sitcom star who was clawing her way back to relevance on a mediocre show. All of this was captured in a mockumentary style perfected by Christopher Guest, The Office, and Parks and Recreation. Kudrow’s performance was immediately slapped with the “brave” label because she willingly put a face to the television industry’s penchant for chewing up actresses and spitting them out. Always overlooked for the younger, hotter cast members, Valerie’s optimism and lust for complete control over her own image made for a fascinating and often hilarious case study. Emmy noticed and improbably rewarded Kudrow with a nomination for Best Actress in a Comedy Series. She lost, though, to Julia Louis-Dreyfus.

But all of that seems but a preamble to Kudrow’s blisteringly amazing comic work in The Comeback Season Two. Emmy should again pay attention. We’ll talk nomination for now, but I’m thinking long term. Lisa Kudrow should win.

The second season premiere kicked things off in much the same vein as before, and I grew a little restless with the direction. Were they really going to rehash everything we’d seen before about the character? She’s still controlling her public persona. She’s still trying to claw her way back to relevance – this time by promoting herself on a Bravo-based Real Housewives show. As the pilot closed, however, Kudrow and the series made an important and vital left-turn for the character of Valerie Cherish. Using her at-home camera crew (consisting of an untrained nephew), she barges into HBO’s offices to protest the filming of an HBO series based on the making of the show detailed in Season One. Valerie Cherish would never allow a word to be written about her that she didn’t rewrite herself.

I knew the series was going to a different, darker place when Valerie is partially conned with a repulsed yet flattered air into reading for the role based on her on-and-off-screen antics. Kudrow’s delivery in the scene is comic perfection as she performs a cold reading of what appears to be an insulting and damaging portrait of an aging actress. Any self-respecting person would turn away from the experience, but Cherish could not. It’s the beauty of the series and Kudrow’s genesis of the Valerie Cherish character that she willingly puts herself into these insulting and degrading situations. Cherish, something of a prude, is forced to spout vulgar language, and Kudrow’s performance of the scene is at once hilarious, haunting, grating, and wildly uncomfortable.

It’s exactly what she intended it to be. And it set the stage for what turned out to be Kudrow’s crowning achievement as an actress, culminating in a perfect season finale.

The season finale, “Valerie Gets What She Really Wants,” gives Kudrow multiple comic beats to hit, and she nails them every time. Valerie has received an Emmy nomination in the show, and she’s basking in the glory she has so persistently craved. She’s basking alone, though, as her husband Mark has abandoned her, weary of her constant need to be on-camera. Her confidant and hairdresser Mickey (the great Robert Michael Morris) is suffering silently from cancer (well, silently to Cherish as she refuses to acknowledge his mortality). As she attends a pre-Emmy party, she bumps into an old friend Chris (Kellan Lutz) who we later discover has an eternal burning flame for her. Kudrows first great moment of the episode is her polite, tempted, but firm rejection of Lutz’s advances. His many, many persistent advances.

Later, prepping for the Emmy ceremony, Cherish is further stressed by Mickey’s failing health. After sending him home in her limo with a bleeding nose, she is faced with exploding sewage pipes, resulting in a garage full of what her Hispanic housekeeper calls “caca.” On paper, it feels like a standard sitcom gag, but they somehow never play it that way. The comedy is real and intense. Life literally hands Kudrow’s Cherish a garage full of shit, and yet she pushes forward.

Merely replaying the notes of Valerie Cherish doesn’t make Kudrow’s Season Two performance a work of art. It’s the fact that she changes. She evolves. Kudrow’s Cherish has always put her career in front of everything else, and her personal life, in return, falls apart. Gradually, Kudrow reveals the cracks in the facade through the season just as quickly as she cements them. The season culminates in Kudrow’s finest screen work to date. Torn between a potentially dying Mickey and being seen on-camera (and potentially winning) at the Emmys, Cherish decides to put her career on the back-burner for once in her life and run to Mickey in his moment of need. The agony and torment on Kudrow’s face as she comes to the conclusion of what she must do and what she has to give up in exchange is amazing and heartfelt. I argue that few comic actresses could have handled the transition so deftly, so subtly, as Kudrow managed.

Kudrow’s Season Two work as Valerie Cherish is a tricky performance from start to finish. She acknowledges the ugly truth about Hollywood, about men and women, and (most tellingly) about actresses themselves. Her transformation from reality star to human is stunningly realized as the final scenes of the season transition from hand-held camera to more traditional filmmaking. Valerie Cherish grew as a human being over the course of the season, and Lisa Kudrow grew as an actress as a result.

Lisa Kudrow has also evolved: from Good to Great. And Emmy has to recognize this remarkable transformation.

My fellow Awards Daily TV contributor Clarence Moye recently wrote about how much influence the Critics’ Choice Awards have over Emmy nominations and who stands to benefit from a win. Orange is the New Black’s Lorraine Toussaint took home the Critics’ Choice Best Supporting Actress – Drama trophy, which is a huge boost to her presence in the Emmy race since it’s mostly been dominated by Kate Mulgrew and Uzo Aduba.

But here’s a sad fact: Last year, Scandal’s Bellamy Young took home a win in the same category at the Critics’ Choice and failed to get an Emmy nomination. So it’s questionable whether Emmy voters will vote the same way as critics.

So who’s in contention? This is an interesting category this year since some of the contenders were in the Best Supporting Actress Comedy category last year, now that OITNB is a “drama.” Could some of the Downton Abbey mainstays get bumped for convicts?

Here’s a look at who could be nominated: Sissy Spacek for Bloodline, Maggie Smith for Downton Abbey, Lena Headey for Game of Thrones, Kate Mulgrew for Orange is the New Black, Uzo Aduba for Orange is the New Black, Christine Baranski for The Good Wife, Christina Hendricks for Mad Men, and Lorraine Toussaint for Orange is the New Black.

First, let’s talk about Mad Men. This is the show’s last season, which means this is the last opportunity to nominate Hendricks. And will they do it? Yes. Hendricks has been nominated in this category for the last five years, and Joan received a great send-off with some Emmy-baity scenes (her sexual harassment speech being a key one). She’s in.

Emmy voters will also vote for Downton Abbey, which also appears to be winding down toward a finale soon. Look for nominations for Maggie Smith and Joanne Froggatt since they are category mainstays (and Froggatt won the Golden Globe earlier this year).

As for Orange is the New Black, this is where it gets murky. Anyone on the show could win for Best Supporting Actress – Drama since there is a wealth of amazing supporting work from Natasha Lyonne to Taryn Manning to Yael Stone to Samira Wiley to (the list goes on). However, the actresses that people are talking about include Uzo Aduba, Kate Mulgrew, and Lorraine Toussaint. Without spoiling anything (although you’ve had a year to watch Season Two by now), Toussaint could get nominated since her work would be marginal in subsequent seasons; however, Uzo Aduba’s Crazy Eyes had a bigger story arc last season, so look for her to get nominated over Toussaint (plus, she won a SAG and was nominated for an Emmy as a guest actress last year).

Sorry, GoT fanboys. I don’t think Lena Headey is getting in. This has by far been Game of Thrones’ most divisive season, and while Cersei is certainly in a bit of a predicament as of late, there hasn’t been anything that memorable this Emmy season.

The Good Wife is an Emmy favorite, as is Christine Baranski, so look for her to get a nomination, probably the only one from a network show.

That leaves Sissy Spacek, and while Bloodline has received mixed reviews, it’s Sissy Spacek. She’s getting an invite.

Here’s the breakdown of predictions:

• Uzo Aduba, Orange is the New Black
• Christine Baranski, The Good Wife
• Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
• Joanne Froggatt, Downton Abbey
• Maggie Smith, Downton Abbey
• Sissy Spacek, Bloodline

Finally, I would be remiss in forgetting to mention Clarence’s passionate plea for past Emmy nominee Maura Tierney in Showtime’s The Affair, not a show that I’ve had the chance to catch up with yet. Still, even though it started the season strongly with the Golden Globes, the series overall has been completely ignored by three groups now – the Screen Actors Guild, the Critics’ Choice TV Awards, and the Television Critics Association.

I’m afraid it ain’t happening this year.

The Emmys can sometimes be a little slow to welcome new blood into their acting circles. Since shows are on for years, it seems the nominees for certain categories are the same year after year. Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series has some much-loved standbys, but should these ladies be prepared for a surge of newcomers to enter the race? This is such a crowded category of absolutely wonderful actresses.

When Julia Louis-Dreyfus is nominated for the fourth consecutive time for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series for Veep, it will be her ninth nomination in total. She will join the company of the late Bea Arthur, and she could eventually wind up being nominated as often as Mary Tyler Moore (who has 10 career nominations in the category). Fans of Veep will agree that Season 4 was a pinnacle for the series, so Louis-Dreyfus getting in will surprise absolutely no one. One slot is locked up for sure.

Parks & Recreations’ Amy Poehler is at the top of the list of actresses who are overdue in this category this year. Devotees of the beloved series are begging for her to finally win a statue for her lovable Leslie Knope, but is nostalgial for the show enough to grab her final nomination? The final episode aired in late February, so let’s hope that she can pull out one last nom. I think she’s in.

Of the main nominees over the last few years, Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie) and Melissa McCarthy (Mike & Molly—yes, it’s still on) seem like the two that will drop out if new blood emerges. People seem to always think Girls’ Lena Dunham will fall every year, but she’s managed a nominated for the past 3 years. Taylor Schilling is now competing in the Drama Actress category, so the Orange is the New Black actress only had a mild flirtation with Comedy Actress last year (cut to nomination morning, and all 3 of these ladies are nominated and my face is a deep shade of scarlet).

Threatening to take not one but two spaces are the stars of the newly binged comedy, Grace & Frankie —Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin. Two actresses haven’t shared this category since Teri Hatcher, Marcia Cross and Felicity Huffman all duked it out for the freshman season of Desperate Housewives. There’s always talk of whether one actress will get in while the other doesn’t (or is that just for movies?). Both Fonda and Tomlin are great on Grace & Frankie, but they aren’t the problem. The show around them isn’t as strong as they are even though it finds its feet halfway through the season. Will viewers finish their binge and make it that far?

While both are great (especially together), Tomlin’s Frankie is the more immediately likable of the two. Fonda is a strong presence (as always), but she reacts to her husband’s coming initially in anger. Tomlin displays more heartbreak from the beginning of the series, but they are equal in screen time and story. No one could argue that one is lead and one is supporting. At this point in the race, both could definitely get in. The show was recently renewed for a second season, and there is mad respect for both of these awesome women.

Speaking of Netflix comedies, Ellie Kemper could land a nomination for playing the title character in Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. I have a feeling that the love for Schmidt will wane by the time voting is in full swing (we all went to bat for it during our podcast a few weeks back). The show debuted to acclaim in early March, and the reception was very overwhelming. It is the definition of a bingeable comedy—fast, fun, and zany, and Kemper is lovable but not cloying. It would have been easy for the characters around Kimmy to steal the spotlight from her, but she holds her own. Tituss Burgess was the only actor in the ensemble to snag a nomination at the Critics’ Choice Television Awards. I suspect that she will be on the fringe in terms of getting in. It’s definitely possible, but I think she’ll just miss out despite how deserving she is. Will the 30 Rock connection surge her into this category?

Gina Rodriguez seems like the newcomer with a nomination heading her way. Jane the Virgin’s premiere season was a surprise smash, and it landed on several critics’ end-of-the-year best lists last year. It’s the definition of a star-making turn, and Rodriguez has been nominated for a Critics’ Choice Television Award and won a Golden Globe. Her only detractor? The CW has never produced a nominee in this category in the network’s history. But does that even matter? I doubt it. Rodriguez is likable, charming and smart, so I doubt people will even think about that when they cast their ballot.

We come to a point where we must consider four different, but very worthy, actresses. If it were up to me, Tracee Ellis Ross would get a spot in this race, because her work on black-ish is fantastic. As Bow, she balances a delicate act with her onscreen husband, Anthony Anderson. Whenever one of them is acting crazy, the other grounds them and tries to keep perspective. This role could be played wildly big, but Ross deftly manages to ground everything she does opposite Anderson. Don’t get me wrong—she can be fantastically over-the-top, and it’s a joy to watch. I could honestly watch her spar with Anderson nonstop.

Is Lisa Kudrow going to get in for The Comeback? It feels like a long shot, but fans of the show are adamant that she will make into this very tough year. Getting the show back feels like a victory enough and the award itself. You can’t stop watching her, though. Kudrow is one of those actresses that you love in everything she does, and you applaud whenever she, you know, comes back.

Constance Wu also received a Critics’ Choice Television Award nomination this year for Fresh Off the Boat, but, like Kudrow, it feels like it won’t happen. Wu is the best thing in the 90’s-set sitcom about a Taiwanese family starting over in Orlando. When you tire of something on this show, Wu swoops in and saves the day with dry one-liner. Her Jessica can deliver a joke, and you crave her presence whenever she’s off screen.

People may consider this final prediction a gamble, but it feels obvious to me. Amy Schumer will get nominated for Inside Amy Schumer. She’s everywhere right now, and she’s killing every time she pops up. Every week, people are talking about sketches from her Comedy Central series, and just when you are introducing it to someone new, a new sketch comes out. Trainwreck, her first major film role, will debut later this summer. Like I said—she’s taking over the world. Sarah Silverman was nominated in this category back in 2009, so people can shut their mouths when they begin to argue that her show is “too small” to get nominated for anything. If she somehow doesn’t make it in here, she will get nominated for writing. I mean, she has to, right?

Predictions:
Jane Fonda, Grace & Frankie
Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Amy Poehler, Parks & Recreation
Lily Tomlin, Grace & Frankie
Gina Rodriguez, Jane the Virgin
Amy Schumer, Inside Amy Schumer

Looking at my predictions, it’s almost entirely new blood. Be kind on nomination morning when I am totally wrong.

Right on their heels:
Ellie Kemper, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt
Lena Dunham, Girls
Edie Falco, Nurse Jackie
Melissa McCarthy, Mike & Molly

Dark Horses:
Tracee Ellis Ross, black-ish (sweet baby Jesus, let this happen)
Constance Wu, Fresh Off the Boat
Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback