Kennedy and Moye predict the Emmys: Movie/Miniseries

Unlike the Oscars which have months of precursors and thousands of people analyzing all the ins and outs leading up to the nominations announcement, the Emmys just kind of happen. As a result, they’re much more difficult to predict. On the other hand, Emmy does seem to favor the same shows year in and year out so large chunks of many categories can be penciled in.

Here so far are my and Clarence Moye’s predictions in the movie/miniseries categories. Check out variety/reality/animated here, drama picks here, comedy picks here and if that’s not enough for you, Megan McLachlan and Joey Moser have complete predictions here.


Outstanding Miniseries

Moye: Two slots were easy to fill with AHS: Coven having its highest rated (yet lowest quality) season yet and Fargo having a huge moment this spring. I think Fargo takes this in a cakewalk.

  • American Horror Story: Coven
  • Dancing on the Edge
  • Fargo
  • Luther
  • The White Queen


Kennedy: I’m a bit handicapped in the miniseries categories prediction-wise because I didn’t see much in these departments in the last year. Oh well, it’ll be easier when it comes time to predict a winner because Fargo or American Horror Story are going to win everything, right?

  • Fargo
  • American Horror Story
  • Dancing on the Edge
  • The Hollow Crown
  • Luther


Moye: Hollow Crown or White Queen. Flip a coin on that one. Fargo still rules this category easily.

Kennedy: Yeah, but if I had it to do all over again, I’d have picked The White Queen. At least I know people who saw that which is more than I can say for the Shakespeare.

normal heart

Outstanding TV Movie

Moye: Personal Wish: I haven’t written on IFC’s comic miniseries The Spoils of Babylon, but I’d love to see it nominated here just as a giant Fuck You to the sort of bloated crap that normally gets nominated here.

  • Burton and Taylor
  • The Normal Heart
  • Return to Zero
  • Sherlock: His Last Vow
  • The Trip to Bountiful


Kennedy: Equally handicapped with the TV movies. Maybe that’s why I liked Normal Heart more than everyone else.

  • The Normal Heart
  • Sherlock: His Last Vow
  • The Trip to Bountiful
  • Killing Kennedy
  • Return to Zero


Moye: You’re probably right on this one, but my personal Liberal bias can’t support anything based on a book by Bill O’Reilly. Question for you, have you ever heard of Return to Zero?

Kennedy: Return to Zero? Uhhh… no, I haven’t.


Outstanding Lead Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

Moye: If there are six, then the sixth would be Idris Elba for Luther. It’s going to be a very tight race between Billy Bob Thornton and Mark Ruffalo, but I don’t see how you can refuse Ruffalo’s towering performance.

  • Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock: His Last Vow
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor, Dancing on the Edge
  • Martin Freeman, Fargo
  • Mark Ruffalo, The Normal Heart
  • Billy Bob Thornton, Fargo


Kennedy: I’m pretty sure I’m letting my own personal bias against Fargo keep me from putting Martin Freeman here. This is another reason I suck at predicting awards.

  • Billy Bob Thornton – Fargo
  • Mark Ruffalo – The Normal Heart
  • Benedict Cumberbatch – Sherlock
  • Chiwetel Ejiofor – Dancing on the Edge
  • Idris Elba – Luther


Outstanding Lead Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

Moye: If there are six, then the sixth would be Sarah Paulson for AHS: Coven. I actually don’t think Lange deserves the nomination here given the shallow writing for her character in Coven, but she gets in because a) she’s Jessica Lange and b) who else gets in? I suspect Cicely Tyson is the front-runner here.

  • Helena Bonham Carter, Burton and Taylor
  • Mini Driver, Return to Zero
  • Rebecca Ferguson, The White Queen
  • Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Coven
  • Cicely Tyson, The Trip to Bountiful


Kennedy: Full disclosure: I picked the biggest names I could find on the ballot. I don’t see how Cicely Tyson doesn’t win this anyway.

  • Cicely Tyson – Tip to Bountiful
  • Jessica Lange – American Horror Story
  • Helena Bonham Carter – Burton and Taylor
  • Toni Collette – Hostages
  • Sarah Paulson – American Horror Story


Moye: I think it’s hilarious that Hostages now becomes a Movie/Miniseries because it was so poorly rated that they canceled it halfway into its first season as a TV DRAMA. Still, I could see Toni Collette getting in there. I did like Paulson in AHS: Coven, but she was better in Asylum.

Kennedy: Category fraud is part of the reason it’s hard for me to take this category seriously. I was glad True Detective had the stones to go up in the Drama category, but maybe HBO just didn’t want to have McConaughey competing with Ruffalo.

bomer heart

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Miniseries or Movie

Moye: If there are six, then the sixth would be Colin Hanks for Fargo. I would love to see Keith Carradine nominated for his very simple, yet very heartfelt, performance in Fargo, but I think Hanks has the edge.

  • Matt Bomer, The Normal Heart
  • Martin Freeman, Sherlock: His Last Vow
  • John Goodman, Dancing on the Edge
  • Alfred Molina, Return to Zero
  • Jim Parsons, The Normal Heart


Kennedy: I stuck Freeman in here instead.

  • Jim Parsons – A Normal Heart
  • Colin Hanks – Fargo
  • Matt Bomer – A Normal Heart
  • John Goodman – Dancing on the Edge
  • Martin Freeman – Sherlock: His Last Vow


Moye: No surprises here. I suspect it’s Matt Bomer’s to win.

Kennedy: I say Hanks, you say Molina. I’m actually kind of rooting for Parsons here, but yeah it’s probably Bomer.

tolman fargo

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Miniseries or Movie

Moye: If there are six, then the sixth would be Janet McTeer from The White Queen. Please God don’t let it be Ellen Burstyn for Flowers in the Attic. Kate Walsh from Fargo would be a left-field choice. Kathy Bates was easily the best thing about AHS: Coven. So much so, in fact, that I wish the entire season had been more about her and less about finding “the Supreme.”

  • Kathy Baker, Return to Zero
  • Kathy Bates, American Horror Story: Coven
  • Jacqueline Bisset, Dancing on the Edge
  • Julia Roberts, The Normal Heart
  • Allison Tolman, Fargo


Kennedy: It’s too bad Roberts is going to beat Tolman because she’s the best thing about Fargo.

  • Jacqueline Bisset – Dancing on the Edge
  • Allison Tolman – Fargo
  • Julia Roberts – The Normal Heart
  • Kathy Bates – American Horror Story
  • Ellen Burstyn – Flowers in the Attic

Moye: Wasn’t Dancing on the Edge the thing Jacqueline Bisset won for at the Golden Globes and gave that fantastically loony walk to the stage and acceptance speech? Too bad she will not repeat here. You went there with Ellen Burstyn. I’m going to shame you now. Feel shamed. Deeply shamed.

Kennedy: I had a Globe flashback as I was typing out Bisset’s name and almost scratched her off. I didn’t see Flowers in the Attic (because why would I do that to myself) but of course I heard it was terrible. Still, it’s Burstyn. She won in this category last year so I still almost scratched her off. No shame though.

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