The Gurus of Gold assembled for what is usually a pretty good idea of the race. I think some of us are holding onto movies we really don’t want to let go of. Many of us can’t figure out what can beat A Star is Born, if anything can. While the choices aren’t quite “all over the place” – they have mostly gathered around A Star is Born vs. Roma.
But I have to add here that Nathaniel Rogers of The Film Experience has Black Panther to win. Ridiculous you say. Well, over at Gold Derby Anne Thompson has it at number one too. Look, it isn’t the craziest idea that if it gets in at all it could win. If it has enough support to become a nominee it might have a good chance to win it. Stranger things have happened. And Return of the King did bring home the gold in a clean sweep for Peter Jackson and that was a genre movie. Yeah but Marvel, superheroes, I know. The thing about Oscar advocating that a lot of people don’t know is that if you do it overtly, you are likely to find yourself disappointed by the end of it. No one likes being told what they should and should not vote for. And they really hate being forced to vote for something they don’t like. Anne doesn’t do that. She’s stealthy. She quietly pushes contenders that need support and because most of the time she is objective about her picks, the advocacy can slip through undetected. She isn’t the only one who does this, of course. To know your predictor is to know their secret biases.
Anne did this with Ang Lee for Life of Pi (he ended up winning Best Director) and George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road (it didn’t win Best Director but it won more than anyone thought it would). Has she pushed contenders that didn’t ultimately get in? Of course. But her choice of Black Panther at number, like Nathaniel’s, legitimizes it as a serious contender and not a borderline nominee.
Anyway, something to think about. I am remaining skeptical on that until I see some kind of sign that will tell me the industry is okay with awarding a franchise movie like that. If they’re going to do it for any movie it will likely be this one.
Here are the Gurus for Best Picture – you can see the rest of them, as well as links to all of the Gurus AND Doc Feature and Foreign Language by clicking here.
I have Black Panther at number one. It has an energy to it that feels, well, it feels right. It also needs to get a few other nominations as well – which is why I think Coogler will get a Best Director nomination, and Michael B. Jordan will get a Best Supporting Actor nomination (the Oscars do love a good villain). If it doesn’t get an adapted screenplay nomination, that might be a problem…
But… I can see it happening.
With that said, I can also see a BlacKkKlansman revival. Tom O’Neill mentioned on a recent Gold Derby video that there was a lot of love for it at screenings lately, and – just like Black Panther – it’s one of the most accessible films out there at the moment. Black Panther is on Netflix, it’s on DVD, it’s readily available. BlacKkKlansman is also extremely accessible.
Even if Coogler somehow gets in at the Oscars, he’ll have basically no precursor nominations before that, I would guess, so even that will likely be nowhere near enough for a successful BP campaign.
Good to see Anne pushing Leave No Trace. If people see it could pick up steam.
How A Star is Born is being thought of as a front runner or even a contender at all seems surreal to me; if that’s the case, the Oscars will officially have become a glorified people’s choice awards; A Quiet Place is a masterpiece and by the trailer alone Beale St. seems more of an actual auteurist piece that Star, heck, it is inconceivable to me that Cooper (an actor I respect) for directing Star (a mediocre to bad movie) can contend and beat Jenkins/Cuaron/the greek director who’s so good; not trolling, but ENOUGH of this nonsense, I know this is a bad year but still.. and don’t get me started on Lady Gaga (who I like very much) even being a threat to Glen Close or Colman or whoever else for an underdeveloped character w/cute scenes in the first half!
The Gaga stranners don’t grasp how LIKED Jenkins is in the industry. He has all of McQueen’s chops with none of the attitude
I think Sasha’s current predictions are more likely than the Anne Thompson/Gurus collective rankings.
Anne Thompson normally comes across as a level-headed, knowledgeable predictor. She must be out of her mind with the Black Panther prediction. Having seen the film, I find it hard to believe this has a shot of being nominated, even if tech noms like Costumes, VFX, the sounds, even score are likely. It’s not as technically strong as, say, Blade Runner last year, even if the competition this year for the blockbuster/tech-driven masterpiece slot is slim. Having only seen ASIB of the major contenders, I won’t be surprised if Beale Street becomes the populist winner, Bradley wins actor, and Gaga wins song but Glenn Close starts to steamroll in a category with no easy choices. But it makes no sense to list Black Panther above Beale Street.
Have you read the reviews on Black Panther?
The problem with a ‘Black Panther’ win which, in my opinion is not a good film by any stretch of the imagination, is that any victory it achieves for best film will be a hollow one. The PC pressure for it, and indeed all artists and performers labelled under the umbrella of diversity, will pose the question as to the genuine worth of the win. All the fuss dilutes the achievement.
PC pressure? You mean because Coogler is black you mean?
Exactly!
So Jenkins getting nominations would ALSO be PC?
Anne Thomson told Tom O’ Neil that ”She’d stake her life that Cuaron will win BD”
Cuaron is indeed the favourite with the Bookies at 4/9 , but I think that Cooper @ 4-1 is a good bet ..after all, if ASIB is going to win BP ,and I think it is, then it needs best screenplay or Director…I suspect that the voters will be satisfied by rewarding Roma with BFF and Best Cinematography..Cuaron won the BD oscar for Gravity but it had a number of Tech oscars to support it
The problem with “pundits” is that they are “players” not objective predictors. Putting Black Panther at #1 is pure CAMPAIGNING. Nothing more. There is no indication, anywhere, that it’s anything other than sneaking into BP at #9 or 10 if at all.
Agree 100%
Could Leave No Trace make the final lineup? That’d be great. Even if it does they’ll likely snub Ben Foster (as always) and commit blatant category fraud by putting Thomasin McKenzie supporting, but it is a lovely film.
I would love for this to happen, but I seriously doubt it will. It’s deserving.
There’s only room for one popular entertainment at the table and it’ll be Mary Poppins, not Black Panther.
Green Book really is a terrible movie, and the movie does not even have the box office to justify its inclusion similar to The Blind Side, The Help etcetera.
I just saw it. I wouldn’t call it terrible, but it’s like a slice of mid 90s Oscar bait that slipped through a time warp. Mortensen and Ali are both quite good, but the script is so shallow and the filmmaking so undistinguished that, on any objective basis, it belongs nowhere near the Best Picture lineup. Not when a far funnier, more moving, and more intelligent look at an interracial friendship—Blindspotting—is likely to get nothing at all.
Agreed! Blind spotting was a more current and socially conscious film. The acting and performances rose to a level not seen in Green Book.
What an excellent comment ..” A slice of 90s oscar bait that slipped through a time warp” ..that’s exactly what it is ,….Driving Miss Daisy meets my Cousin Vinny ..it’s NEVER going to win BP
So for those of you who’ve seen it, is Ali winning another Oscar? And if so, then deservedly or merely by default? Can someone like Elliott or Chalamet overcome him?
Right now he’d probably be third on my own list after Simon Russell Beale and Rafael Casal, but since neither of them are likely to get in, I’d say he certainly deserves it more than Elliott (at least based on the performance) and about as much as Chalamet (who is also very good in a film I wasn’t that keen on).
The Gurus seem to be holding onto First Man and Can You Ever Forgive Me? for nominations in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary. I’m surprised First Reformed isn’t yet on the radar, although it’s even odds it only scores for Hawke and the screenplay. But it’s got momentum.
Problem is they campaign not just predict. They push their favourites into the conversation. Happens every year.
First Reformed should be much more prominent in the conversation, but it doesn’t have a pundit championing it.
First Reformed seems the sort of film a pundit would advocate for–more, not less so if you believe they champion rather than predict. Perhaps they share skepticism about the Academy’s reaction and so put their influence behind a more likely Oscar contender.
Couldn’t this backfire for the pundits though, if that’s their intention? Oscar voters could see all the buzz abt Black Panther perhaps and opt not to vote for it, assuming it’s a lock for someone else’s ballot. (Kind of hoping that’s the case this year, Black Panther is no Dark Knight)
Is there mounting evidence against Can You Ever Forgive Me? It showed up at NYFCC and NBR (I know at NY it was just for an actor but since they only show firsts any mention is big)… I don’t put too much stock in it missing the Gothams etc. Its not really the sort of movie that crowd goes for and they are chosen by 5 people anyway… Its still fine. First Man I am more inclined to agree is in trouble. But regardless its still early with all of this so nothing is really in too much trouble just yet. And to be fair they aren’t holding on very tightly (both are in the probably won’t be nominated section of this list).
Oh and I completely agree with first reformed… Sasha is pushing it which I am glad about (he had it at 3 on these lists) but it is a waiting game with it to see whether it is truly taken seriously.
I would say don’t be surprised to see A Quiet Place turn up in BP. I think A Quiet Place has a better chance of getting in BP over Can You Ever Forgive Me.
I’m not counting on it but think a PGA nom is quite possible since it was a big hit AND has the Krasinksi-Blunt-friends-of-Clooney team behind it. Frankly I think the PGA will throw a lot of monkey wrenches into our predictions by nominating multiple populist hits like AQP, Black Panther, Crazy Rich Asians, and maybe Mary Poppins. Then if they stick to First Reformed because it’s just one of those indies that meets/exceeds expectations at all the precursors, that leaves only 5 spots. A Star Is Born, Roma, Beale Street, and Green Book will all be there, meaning only one of Favourite, Vice, Blackkk, First Man, Forgive Me, Widows, and Eighth Grade can be nominated. I’m not saying it will definitely transpire like this, but this would be a sensible year for the PGA to nominate multiple box-office hits at the expense of dry Oscar bait.
It’s genre with no gravitas, so I doubt it very much.
http://wafca.com/awards/
no Adams
Nothing too surprising here. First Man did very badly, but some people would call that expected. Roma did very well, as did The Favourite, Beale Street and A Star is Born (although that one did not get a Production Design nomination, so they probably didn’t go completely bonkers crazy for it). Nice to see some Widows mentions, keeping it in the race. And I’m still waiting for some group to push Portman into contention.
Yay- another mention for Toni Collete. I’m fixated on that performance.
Wish Sasha would get behind her.
Another point, it’s not a hot mess at all Sasha. Gurus very settled on the top 3.
I agree, only the top three have a realistic chance of winning , and Green Book is slipping fast ….moreover, a B & W movie in Spanish set in 1970s Mexico is unlikely to win , no matter how well its put together
Have you reviewed THE FAVOURITE? I read some very glowing things about it but for now it seems to be missing real Oscar heat to win.
Right now The Favourite is kind of like the middle child of the Oscar season. It’s to big for the indie/critic awards but too small/weird for the populist/traditional outlets like NBR. I could easily see it making a comeback when we hit the industry awards, which tend to be sort of a combo of the two sensibilities.
I think your rankings are pretty spot on, Sasha. At this time. Nice work!