Nat over at the Film Experience has put up a prelim predictions article. Early ones are usually a good spot check to see what people were thinking before the season starts. This is how we ran into trouble with several films over the years, like Munich or Road to Perdition or Charlie Wilson’s War – on paper, everybody’s a winner.
Nat asks the following two questions, which I will provide my own answer for:
You know you wanna diss / congratulate me for my psychic abilities. But first, answer me these questions three:
- Do you think the Clint Eastwood vs. Spike Lee brouhaha (regarding the lack of black soldiers in Eastwood’s 2006 WWII movies) will continue into this Oscar season along with their films Changeling & Miracle at St. Anna’s… or die out quickly?
It’s possible that the side of Spike Big Hollywood has never liked could come in and ruin things, Oscar-wise. Does that matter big picture? Not really. Not all films and filmmakers must be judged against Oscar – by God, no. That would greatly dumb down the artistic process. BUT if we’re talking Oscar here, there is atonement to be had (Do the Right Thing) but there is still residual annoyance with Lee’s continual harping. This, according to the Eastwood-worshipping Academy, would not be a big surprise. On the other hand, if the movie is too big to ignore they will have to hold their nose and vote for it, no matter what
- Do you think the Brothers Weinstein will finally get their Oscar groove back what with a promising slate that features Woody Allen (Vicky Christina Barcelona),Kate Winslet and Ralph Fiennes –maybe– (The Reader) and a Stephen Frears / legendary actress vehicle (Ch√©ri) hot on the heels of his Oscar success The Queen (2006)?
I smell a Nat agenda here — he loves Michelle Pfeiffer so naturally Cheri would be at the top of the list! Just kidding, Nat. Never count out the Weinsteins.¬†¬† I wouldn’t pin too many hopes on Woody’s movie, save Penelope and maybe Javier Bardem but the Winslet one looks fine indeed – remember, those notorious Anglophiles will give it its requisite attention. Fingers crossed for Pfeiffer.
- Which seemingly baity property do you consider most suspect in reality?
All, or most. Benjamin Button is the one I don’t see having Oscar potential. Fan boy potential YES but Oscar? Not sure. Homophobes in the Academy may shy away from Milk for Best Pic. Nat has Button, Defiance, Doubt, Milk and St. Annas for Best Pic. Of these, only the Spike movie seems to be the one without baggage. However, this gives it, sad to say, a handicap. At this stage in the game the last thing a film wants to be is thought of as an Oscar contender or being predicted as a major player. Sight unseen, it’s wholly damaging. The ones no one is sure about or aren’t even on anyone’s radar, these are the ones to pay attention to. Kind of defeats the whole purpose but there it is. For me, I’d call the Big Five (and thus jinx each of them): Revolutionary Road, Frost/Nixon, Changeling, Miracle at St. Annas, Defiance maybe. Che maybe if Soderbergh shrinks it significantly and gives it a plot.