Tom O’Neil has put together his predictions roundup.¬† I hate doing these at this stage of the game because it’s like shooting bats blindfolded – completely impossible.¬† What do we know for sure: Slumdog Millionaire has been seen and is beloved by those who have seen it. The Dark Knight is a critically acclaimed blockbuster. And that’s pretty much it. Milk comes closest because some people have seen it and reported back that it is very good. But you just never know, do you. Benjamin Button probably has the most early confidence behind it (again, standard disclaimer that none of this means anything), thus I chose the following:
The Dark Knight
I guess you could say that four out of five are best case scenario situations. I’ve left off Slumdog even though I think it will be nominated if any of these films tank. We already know that what stands in The Dark Knight’s way isn’t it tanking; it has already proved itself, but whether the Academy will suffer from fanboy overkill and will thus shun the film. This is what traditional thinking has some Oscarwatchers believing. For me, I either feel it or I don’t. I felt it with this film but, obviously, even though it’s the number one phenom of the year, it’s still a long shot.
The other films we’re all waiting to see or hear about are: Australia, Doubt, Frost/Nixon, and of course, Defiance.
I can almost guarantee you that one of these movies is going to bomb hard. Frost/Nixon has an interesting position in that people will now go in with lowered expectations, as opposed to going in with impossibly high ones. I would almost think that a good strategy to win Oscars would be to get out early buzz that the movie is bad (if you know it’s good) and then people will be expecting something terrible but believe they’ve seen the best film ever made. I don’t know, just a thought.