Frost/Nixon is a good example of why the chattering class can sometimes be wrong. We’ll have to see how it plays out as we still know nothing for certain. But make no mistake about it: this is a Big Oscar Movie headed for the Kodak. I am not sure if it’s on the stands yet but EW is about to go big with Frost/Nixon, naming it as one of the three sure Oscar bets for Best Picture, along with Benjamin Button and Doubt. Two of these are way off early radars, as far as I can tell, and this based on early screenings of these films. Frost/Nixon is going to have to bomb to not be one of the strongest contenders and you will likely see this play itself out in the next month.¬† EW’s Dave Karger has a strong track record in sussing out the Oscar contenders. He is almost always at least three or four out of five right, even as early as November. This issue, the first week of November, plays it safe-ish, meaning that three films are in the lead and the others are either long shots or possibles. The Dark Knight is listed as a possible. When you take into account the possibles and the long shots you have the same picture we’re all seeing. What is remarkable about the EW thing is that Benjamin Button, Doubt and Frost/Nixon are out front. The point here being that it’s a clean slate, don’t listen to the blogs. Sorry blogs.
Meanwhile, on his site, Dave Karger mentions that Ralph Fiennes is going supporting for The Reader, and he has this to say about that:
But moving Fiennes out of lead for The Reader does have a few strange results. For starters, it pretty much renders his fine supporting performance in The Duchess (pictured above) obsolete as far as the Oscar season is concerned, since Academy rules dictate that actors may only receive one nomination per category. And with his costar Kate Winslet currently set to be campaigned as Best Supporting Actress for the film, the movie now has no lead-acting contenders at all. The Academy usually lets that fly for an ensemble film like Babel or Crash; will they accept it for a three-hander like The Reader?
What do you all think of this? Is Fiennes shooting himself in the foot by competing against himself? Or is he making the smart move by banking on his Holocaust-themed movie for an Oscar nod?