Careful to disguise the identity of his source, Roger Ebert reveals a clandestine rendezvous with a Hollywood Insider he calls Deep Vote, who slips him tips about how the Academy might be leaning. [Thanks to Cahiers for the tip.] It’s a fun read and the Must-Click of the day. Here are some highlights:
“Best Picture, ‘Slumdog Millionaire,’ ‘Frost/Nixon,’ ‘Doubt,’ ‘Revolutionary Road,’ ‘The Reader.’ Maybe ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.’ Extremely strong possibility of ‘The Dark Knight.’ ‘WALL-E’ is good enough, but voters will cover it in the best animation category. ‘Synecdoche, New York’ is easily good enough, but they’re embarrassed you had to explain it to them.”
‘Best director, Jonathan Demme for ‘Rachel Getting Married.’ A lock. Ron Howard for ‘Frost/Nixon.’ Utterly fascinating. David Fincher for ‘The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.’ Danny Boyle for ‘Slumdog Millionaire’–looks like it was a tough location shoot. Gus Van Sant, for ‘Milk.’ Very powerful.’
Topping the column, Deep Vote seems most certain of one category:
“Best Supporting Actor,” he writes, “will be won by Heath Ledger. Period. For the other contenders, the nomination itself will be their reward.”
See, I’m thinking a lack of precedent doesn’t means much in this heartbreaking instance. Sure, a posthumous Oscar is exceedingly rare. But naturally it would be. A posthumous Oscar requires two incredibly difficult things: (1) a career-capping performance, (2) to be obvious and blunt: the death of the actor who gave that performance. The first prerequisite is difficult enough to fulfill. The second is crushingly tough beyond words.
I’ll ask the same question I raised when I went through my rationale five months ago. Of all the actors who are frontrunners for Best Supporting Actor, which name read from the stage of Kodak Theater is assured an emotional standing ovation? What actor’s wife or best buddy accepting his award will bring the biggest lump to the throats of those of us watching? Won’t a win by anyone else seem almost disrespectfully callous and cold?