Best Picture appears to be down to these titles (it could change depending on which films open to rave reviews – there are still question marks and the race could change course at any time):
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Rachel Getting Married
And those could very well be the National Board of Review’s first picks. Which film will they choose as their number one? It will be the most, or very nearly, critically acclaimed of the bunch – but since these films won’t have been released when they release their list it’s a big question mark. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it was either The Reader or Revolutionary Road. More on the NBR later.
Which films could get the SAG ensemble vote?
Also possible: The Wrestler and The Reader
The DGA nods could go to:
Gus Van Sant
Jonathan Demme, Stephen Daldry and Ron Howard also in the running.
PGA could go to:
The Dark Knight
The only lock right now appears to be Slumdog Millionaire, a film which is beloved across the board and has a ferocious campaign already in full swing.¬†¬† The other four slots are open. Usually, not always, the films that hits all of these stops along the way also makes it to Best Picture but I don’t see Slumdog getting a SAG ensemble nod. I can see Doubt and Frost/Nixon hitting all of the stops. Revolutionary Road could easily hit them. And Milk. I will be curious to see if Best Picture shapes up as predictably as it has, save one or two titles, year after year or if the studios holding back their releases until the 11th hour will have any impact.
We wait and wonder.